WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Danny]

Can one piggyback on a vote that doesn't exist?

you can certainly piggeback on ones arguments. Autumn had done that multiple times in the past as a wolf for example and him doing that to me was the main reason I caught him last time he was a wolf.

This time no wolf piggy pagged on my argument, I think there's little chance of that happening if jag was a villager

[Danny]

Sorry EF

[Autumn]

Man, now I find out I'm transparent as a wolf. Great.

[Passacaglia]

you can certainly piggeback on ones arguments. Autumn had done that multiple times in the past as a wolf for example and him doing that to me was the main reason I caught him last time he was a wolf.

This time no wolf piggy pagged on my argument, I think there's little chance of that happening if jag was a villager

Interesting theory -- too bad you just said that anyone who agrees with it is a wolf! :jester:

[Autumn]

I"ll admit I'm really lost where to go today. I've got my vote on McKerney because I'm afraid if he's a wolf he could slide by to the end. I was hoping a vote or two on him would get him talking and give us something to base votes on. When it comes to Hoops/Chief/JAG/Pass I'm quite unsure who would be the wolf in that group. I'm kind of guessing there's one there and one in PF/NTN/Mckerney. I see people thinking three wolves, whereas Saldana seemed certain there would be four total. I guess I'm just hoping there's only two more right now.

[Danny]

If there are only four wolves I think that makes ntn and cr look even better cause it would mean mauboy voted for a roled wolf day 1 which would be terribly risky with only 4 wolves.

[JAG]

you can certainly piggeback on ones arguments. Autumn had done that multiple times in the past as a wolf for example and him doing that to me was the main reason I caught him last time he was a wolf.

This time no wolf piggy pagged on my argument, I think there's little chance of that happening if jag was a villager

Well, seeing as only one person has a vote out, I'm guessing the wolves are just playing things safe before committing themselves. For what it's worth, the vote the day before yesterday was very quiet until a flurry at the end.

At this point, I would probably lean towards voting Pass. I've come around more on Autumn based on his comments earlier today. If Pass comes up wolf, then hoops looks pretty good. I can see an argument to vote hoops, but I just don't have a bad vibe with him.

[PackerFanatic]

A few reasons for my vote today (and I apologize for not being around much last night or today)

-His quick switch off mau on day 1 when other candidates popped up.
-His quick jump on Jackal on day 2 when Lathum brought him up.
-His "pile-on" vote of mau to basically hide his vote on the day mau was lynched.
-He has been fairly quiet most of the game, staying under-the-radar

VOTE NTNDEACON

[Autumn]

I don't entirely believe him either. I'm also open to the possibility that he's a regular villager who dropped hints that he seer to stay around past day one. I agree that the future comment was to give the impression he's a seer, but also without saying it so he can claim he never admitted to being seer.

I also think that he could be a wolf, but currently think The Jackal is a better pick for tonights vote.

Going back through old posts. McKerney hasn't said a lot but here's one of his comments after Mauboy fake revealed. this is before Mauboy pretended to be a paparazzi, so it's interesting to me that it seems to be setting up this possibility, perhaps trying to leave Mauboy an out if the seer reveals. One point against mcKerney in my mind.

[mckerney]

Going back through old posts. McKerney hasn't said a lot but here's one of his comments after Mauboy fake revealed. this is before Mauboy pretended to be a paparazzi, so it's interesting to me that it seems to be setting up this possibility, perhaps trying to leave Mauboy an out if the seer reveals. One point against mcKerney in my mind.

I wasn't trying to set him up with an out, I thought that's what he was doing for himself with the vague comment. If you check the day three votes I was the first one to vote for mauboy and it was before he admitted he wasn't the seer and claimed the fake paparazzi role.

[Autumn]

That's the thing, thoughm Lathum, I didn't see you state why. Your initial post just tosses out that you protected yourself, not why. You only made it seem that way in retrospect because you were attacked, so The Jackal must be a wolf, kindof a circular "that's why I protected myself". But you wouldn't have known any of that prior to the attack. When you made your decision, mau was likely to be a seer, and your unknown-allegiance but hopefully good teammate The Jackal knew you were the BG. I would like to know why in that situation, even in three minutes, you chose to protect yourself and not the presumed seer.

I believe you're the BG. I think the real BG would have come out by now if you were not. So please don't think I am trying to paint you as a wolf. I am just honestly confused by your decision, why you would risk the seer like that. It flies in the face of conventional WW logic.

Reading Chief's posts back on day 2 I'm finding myself leaning more his way. He came out rather stridently against Lathum's move of protecting himself. This is just one of those posts, and he makes very clear he's not suggesting Lathum's a wolf, yet does a lot of painting Lathum's move as suspect. Including using this point to try to gloss over the fact that people were finding it very strange that Mauboy scanned Chief. It just seems we've seen a lot of strident, defensive Chief in this game.

And that scan is a point I find myself returning to. why would Mauboy claim to have scanned Chief? he could have claimed to scan his teammate, or NTN. There wasn't really any reasoning for picking Chief. Does that mean he was avoiding scanning either of those two? Or why did he pick Chief out of thin air?

[ntndeacon]

Just to hit on a point Autumn mentioned about our race dealings. I did suggest using a point of aggression for the benefit of Chief and Hoops.

[hoopsguy]

Why would you use aggression to benefit another team, ntn? Just curious as this is something that our team hasn't discussed at all.

[Danny]

Based on what I'm seeing, the vote is going to end up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

[Autumn]

Well, at least there won't be a tie!

[hoopsguy]

I'm torn between "vote JAG" because I'm willing to take my cues from a known villager (Danny) who I consider an astute player and "vote Pass" because I sincerely hope we weren't so off-base on Day 5 that we had a three villager run-off.

At this point, I'm going to jump on Pass for the vote. Both of these approaches are kind of tough for me to swallow, because I like to tell myself that I'm good at sifting through posts and seeing stuff that isn't supposed to be seen. But I feel like I've got almost nothing this game, as my voting record suggests.

VOTE PASS

[ntndeacon]

Well the idea was from Amazing race. Helping out another team could be reciprocated and an allaince of sorts could be formed between the two teams. that was the kernel of the idea...and you and chief were thought of because even if one of you had been ousted from WW You were both cagey veterans that would be good to be in our corner so to speak in the race game.

I was and still am looking at the two games as mostly separate.

[Passacaglia]

Based on what I'm seeing, the vote is going to end up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1

Yes, but how many of those votes will be yours? :P

Anyway, we're smarter than that.

[Passacaglia]

I'm torn between "vote JAG" because I'm willing to take my cues from a known villager (Danny) who I consider an astute player and "vote Pass" because I sincerely hope we weren't so off-base on Day 5 that we had a three villager run-off.

At this point, I'm going to jump on Pass for the vote. Both of these approaches are kind of tough for me to swallow, because I like to tell myself that I'm good at sifting through posts and seeing stuff that isn't supposed to be seen. But I feel like I've got almost nothing this game, as my voting record suggests.

VOTE PASS

Your feeling is right, you've got nothing.

[Chief Rum]

Reading Chief's posts back on day 2 I'm finding myself leaning more his way. He came out rather stridently against Lathum's move of protecting himself. This is just one of those posts, and he makes very clear he's not suggesting Lathum's a wolf, yet does a lot of painting Lathum's move as suspect. Including using this point to try to gloss over the fact that people were finding it very strange that Mauboy scanned Chief. It just seems we've seen a lot of strident, defensive Chief in this game.

And that scan is a point I find myself returning to. why would Mauboy claim to have scanned Chief? he could have claimed to scan his teammate, or NTN. There wasn't really any reasoning for picking Chief. Does that mean he was avoiding scanning either of those two? Or why did he pick Chief out of thin air?

I was trying to make sense of Lathum's move, so we could properly evaluate The Jackal and maybe mau. Remember, at that point, no one really knew what to make of mau, and Lathum's move to protect himself was definitely confusing. If you think you have an outted seer, why do your protect yourself? Who does that? Doesn't that seem a strange decision to you? That is all I was saying there. And if having an opinion on someone else's play is "being strident", I guess I am strident. ;)

As for the defensive part of it, you should look back at past games where people come at me with very little logic or who argue unfairly in their posts; you'll find I quickly I get defensive and aggressively counterattack. I don't like arguments like that; they're intellectually lazy and within the scope of the game, irresponsible, as they can result in misudnerstanding and get the wrong people lynched. Since I have seen a lot of that this game, you shouldn't be surprised it has gotten my hackles up.

And, BTW, I think you need to re-read Days One and Two and Three; I don't gloss over mau's scan of me. I even offer up a theory for what he was doing (scanning me instead of Danny). Since Danny's a villager, the theory ended up being bunk, but I certainly didn't ignore it.

Also, I would question your logic in that mau's scan of me is an attempt by him to hide me as a wolf. That would be a very poor play, and I think you know that. If you're a wolf who has claimed a role whereby a villager in the game knows that you are a lying (as mau did), you know it's only a matter of time before either this guy comes out and busts you or that you are outted in some other way. You might get away with it if you can swing it near the end of a game, I suppose, but no way do you do this reveal on Day One and think you're going to get away with it. Knowing then that it's only a matter of time before your fake seer reveal is uncovered, you announce that your Night One scan is... one of your fellow wolves? What kind of sense does that make?

Come on, Autumn, you're too good to fall for that trap. The fact you're going down that road when I know you're too smart for that makes me start to wonder about you.

[Danny]

Hmmm, could it be I was the last remaining villager and you're all wolves?

[Autumn]

As for the defensive part of it, you should look back at past games where people come at me with very little logic or who argue unfairly in their posts; you'll find I quickly I get defensive and aggressively counterattack. I don't like arguments like that; they're intellectually lazy and within the scope of the game, irresponsible, as they can result in misudnerstanding and get the wrong people lynched. Since I have seen a lot of that this game, you shouldn't be surprised it has gotten my hackles up.

I am definitely aware of this, and if I wasn't I would have jumped on you much earlier than this. In another player I would have 100% interpreted your play as a wolf with some heat on him.

And, BTW, I think you need to re-read Days One and Two and Three; I don't gloss over mau's scan of me. I even offer up a theory for what he was doing (scanning me instead of Danny). Since Danny's a villager, the theory ended up being bunk, but I certainly didn't ignore it.

I did reread that, and yes you offered up an explanation. Your theory was one reason I voted for Danny, so yes, there's that. But your reaction (and yes I just read all those posts) could also be painted as a wolf trying to cover up for the mistake of his fellow wolf. A good method would be to redirect the suspicion at Danny rather than yourself.

Also, I would question your logic in that mau's scan of me is an attempt by him to hide me as a wolf. That would be a very poor play, and I think you know that. If you're a wolf who has claimed a role whereby a villager in the game knows that you are a lying (as mau did), you know it's only a matter of time before either this guy comes out and busts you or that you are outted in some other way. You might get away with it if you can swing it near the end of a game, I suppose, but no way do you do this reveal on Day One and think you're going to get away with it. Knowing then that it's only a matter of time before your fake seer reveal is uncovered, you announce that your Night One scan is... one of your fellow wolves? What kind of sense does that make?

Come on, Autumn, you're too good to fall for that trap. The fact you're going down that road when I know you're too smart for that makes me start to wonder about you.

I've pointed out repeatedly, I think, while trying to remain tactful, that I think Mauboy really blundered with his reveal. And so while I agree that it would have been a poor wolf move, so would pretending to be the seer when you get votes and then pretending to actually be the paparazzi. I am operating on the principle that Mauboy may have made a poor choice in his scan in order to help out the wolves. He obviously had much more confidence about how his reveal was going to work than he should have. You should be able to see that, and while I can see that it's in your interest as either villager or wolf to naysay it, I don't think you or anyone else should be discounting it completely.

That said I don't want to seem like I have a crusade against you. I do however think there are arguments against you, and I keep seeing those get brushed away, which I Find strange or suspicious.

[Chief Rum]

I am still of the opinion that it is very nearly impossible for ntn to be a wolf with the way Day One went down, and the only way it would have happened is if I were a wolf, too, which I am not. And even knowing none of you know my allegiance for sure, you have to accept then that if ntn is indeed a wolf, for the vote to go down the way it did, all three of us (me, mau and ntn) would have had to be wolves. On Day One? What kind of luck is that?

You're buying a lot of hope if you think ntn is a wolf at this point.

Also, I still think it's tremendously unlikely that Pass acts the way he does and is a wolf.

My instincts are overhwlemingly that ntn and Pass are not only villagers, but darn near obvious villagers. I don't think we should waste time on either one while we have other, more uncleared villagers left in the game.

[Autumn]

I wasn't trying to set him up with an out, I thought that's what he was doing for himself with the vague comment. If you check the day three votes I was the first one to vote for mauboy and it was before he admitted he wasn't the seer and claimed the fake paparazzi role.

I would like to see that vote. Thanks for pointing it out Mckerney.

[Danny]

I think I said it before, but no way would I vote ntn or cr right now. I don't think I'd vote pass either

[Danny]

I think I said it before, but no way would I vote ntn or cr right now. I don't think I'd vote pass either

[Autumn]

That does look like a good vote, McK, certainly early enough that if you were trying to make yourself looking good for voting a wolf you were doing so in an expert fashion. And some of your posts during that day make me think better of you.

[mauchow]

My name keeps coming up a lot. Glad I made a lasting impression. LOL

[Autumn]

Chief, can you explain why you wouldn't vote Pass? I don't see anything at all particularly for or aagainst him.

[Autumn]

Mauboy, Mauboy, mauboy.

[mckerney]

I would like to see that vote. Thanks for pointing it out Mckerney.

Post 769 on page 16 (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?t=80707&page=16)

[Chief Rum]

I am definitely aware of this, and if I wasn't I would have jumped on you much earlier than this. In another player I would have 100% interpreted your play as a wolf with some heat on him.

Ah, but I am not another player. In fact, I would say my reaction to Pass and to otehrs is entirely consistent with my past play. It's metagamey, of course, and you shouldn't use it, but that said, it's there. How you would react to another player doing the same thing is irrelevant. You're not dealing with another player.

I did reread that, and yes you offered up an explanation. Your theory was one reason I voted for Danny, so yes, there's that. But your reaction (and yes I just read all those posts) could also be painted as a wolf trying to cover up for the mistake of his fellow wolf. A good method would be to redirect the suspicion at Danny rather than yourself.

But is that the high percentage read? I can see that, but I would hope you would have more to go after me than coming up with a low percentage theory and basing your vote on it. Heck, you know that in this situation, no way am I or any veteran wolf even going to acknowledge mau. He would have been cutoff the second he did his fake reveal (at least publically).

I've pointed out repeatedly, I think, while trying to remain tactful, that I think Mauboy really blundered with his reveal. And so while I agree that it would have been a poor wolf move, so would pretending to be the seer when you get votes and then pretending to actually be the paparazzi. I am operating on the principle that Mauboy may have made a poor choice in his scan in order to help out the wolves. He obviously had much more confidence about how his reveal was going to work than he should have. You should be able to see that, and while I can see that it's in your interest as either villager or wolf to naysay it, I don't think you or anyone else should be discounting it completely.

I agree, I think mau made a mistake there as well. Where I think your logic loses the thread, though, is that you think one bad decision will be followed by another a half a day later. Consider mau. He hints at the seer on Day One. By the deadline of Day One, it's more or less the consensus that mau has revealed as the seer. He doesn't come back on to confirm and to offer up his scan choices for some time into Day Two (I remember, I was waiting to see what he would say), like half a day at least. The instant he "reveals" on Day One and the other wolves see what he is doing, you don't think they're in his ear about who to say he has scanned? Do you really see a veteran wolf saying, "mau, your fake reveal will eventually be revealed, so please tell the village you scanned me (Chief)?" Does that seem like a logical decision to you? Or do you really think the other wolves won't have been talking mau up quite a bit between his "reveal" and his announcement of who he scanned more than half a day later?

That said I don't want to seem like I have a crusade against you. I do however think there are arguments against you, and I keep seeing those get brushed away, which I Find strange or suspicious.

Not sure what game you're reading, because if arguments against me are being brushed away, you couldn't tell from the way my name keeps coming up and people keep coming at me. ;)

I think it's undeniable that there are arguments against me. There are arguments against many here. I think it's silly, though, to use my decision to defend myself as a reason to then lynch me. As if it's less suspicious to sit idly by and let people build their theories on me without argument.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, can you explain why you wouldn't vote Pass? I don't see anything at all particularly for or aagainst him.

Pass was obstinate, picking a fight and a little insulting in his pursuit of me, in a very public manner. Is that really the way you see Pass playing this game as a wolf?

If it was an all an act to hide in plain sight, kudos to him. He fooled me.

[Autumn]

If that's your defense of Pass, then, yes, I think he does that as a wolf. I think that's Pass whether he's villager or wolf.

[Autumn]

I agree, I think mau made a mistake there as well. Where I think your logic loses the thread, though, is that you think one bad decision will be followed by another a half a day later.

This is the only point i want to respond to. It was like a day later or something that Mau revealed with his fake paparazzi role. So, yes, I think it is 100% certain that one bad decision could be followed by another a great deal of hours later. I think that fake role was a much worse decision than his initial reveal, and presumably his fellow wolves knew about it. So either his fellow wolves weren't involved in either decision, or they thought they were both great ideas. But there is no doubt that Mauboy could have made a poor scan choice given the certainty that he made a bad fake role choice.

That said, I haven't even voted you, Chief. But JAG at least has suggested you are the least likely of all suspects and I don't want that idea to gain much root in the village hive mind.

[Chief Rum]

If that's your defense of Pass, then, yes, I think he does that as a wolf. I think that's Pass whether he's villager or wolf.

With two wolves already down for the count, and risking polarizing the village into a Pass versus Chief situation? Pass might play with an edge, but that's just a suicidal play as a wolf. Even if he succeeds in getting me lynched, when I come up a villager, he's the next lynch.

[CrimsonFox]

Dola - I'm willing to be pretty open about what our team has been doing (and we are in first) if others are willing to share some details as well. I'm hoping to evaluate relative performances and better understand why teams are in the position they are.

If there is some wolf reward for being in first in the race I have inadvertently been aiding and abetting the enemy.

I don't necessarily think this is happening, but I want to rule it out. In an abstract sense, I'm surprised to be alive with Chief Rum on Day 6 and could use some help convincing myself that this is a good thing (ie - we're both villagers and just haven't fallen atop wolf priorities so far).


As EF said, tho. There are not events in the game that even out the pack like there are on the real amazing race. No flights that everybody has to be on. Thus when you leave you leave and when you hit the mat you hit the mat. Since you're out in first it's pretty easy to stay in top tier. As for my team, I've been doing giving all the instructions to EF and GE seems okay with that. (Take that however you want). Meaning he hasn't been giving EF any special wolf instructions unless he's doing that on the side privately. Regarding how we went from 7th to 2nd, we've gotten lucky the last couple legs with how well the pitstop tasks match the skills of GE and I. The first two legs they did not (7th and 5th)

[Autumn]

Mckerney's posts make me feel better about him (his day three posts). So I am likely to move my vote. Unfortunately I'm not sure where to go. Hoops/Chief/JAG/Pass seems the place to vote today. I agree with Chief that if he is a wolf, likely NTN is as well. I disagree with him how unlikely that scenario is, but I'm not sure I want to bark up that tree.

Unfortunately I don't have a real sense of who it might be between Hoops/JAG/Pass. And I worry that we're letting someone slip by among the others. I don't see any glaring reason not to vote one of these, luckily, but no glaring reason to pick one over the other.

[Chief Rum]

This is the only point i want to respond to. It was like a day later or something that Mau revealed with his fake paparazzi role. So, yes, I think it is 100% certain that one bad decision could be followed by another a great deal of hours later. I think that fake role was a much worse decision than his initial reveal, and presumably his fellow wolves knew about it. So either his fellow wolves weren't involved in either decision, or they thought they were both great ideas. But there is no doubt that Mauboy could have made a poor scan choice given the certainty that he made a bad fake role choice.

That said, I haven't even voted you, Chief. But JAG at least has suggested you are the least likely of all suspects and I don't want that idea to gain much root in the village hive mind.

I think we can both agree the second reveal was poorly done. mau was trying one last gasp to save himself there. But it's actually irrelevant to this discussion, because mau revealed his "scan" of me under the auspices of the first reveal (as a seer), not the second. mau made an unwise decison to hold himself off from being lynched on Day One by doing the early fake seer reveal when he probably should have just fallen on the sword.

You keep talking about mau's scans like they were real. It was all fake. There was no scan decision he made prior to the deadline, only whatever lie he would cook up hours later when he revealed his "scans". Your argument seems to be that the other wolves will have advised him it's a good idea to reveal that he scanned a fellow wolf (me, in your hypothetical) and reveal him as a villager. You know a wolf team isn't going to do that, and in particular, you know a wolf team with a veteran like me is not going to advise that.

You're really asking for us to believe some phenomenally dumb moves by every single wolf in the game if you think they decided to have mau try to hide a wolf behind a fake seer scan on Day One.

[CrimsonFox]

Pass was obstinate, picking a fight and a little insulting in his pursuit of me, in a very public manner. Is that really the way you see Pass playing this game as a wolf?



Absolutely.

[CrimsonFox]

Based on what I'm seeing, the vote is going to end up 2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1


And the person with the "2" will play their immunity idol!

[Chief Rum]

Absolutely.

Well, then, guess I am fooled. If Pass is a wolf in this game, I'll probably vote for him on Day One by rote from now on.

[CrimsonFox]

A few reasons for my vote today (and I apologize for not being around much last night or today)

-His quick switch off mau on day 1 when other candidates popped up.
-His quick jump on Jackal on day 2 when Lathum brought him up.
-His "pile-on" vote of mau to basically hide his vote on the day mau was lynched.
-He has been fairly quiet most of the game, staying under-the-radar

VOTE NTNDEACON

Everyone always looks at people that "make swtiches and moves" as wolves. I think wolves vote and stay where they are no matter what happens. Even if a wolf ends up being the top votegetter they would hang them out to dry. At least I know some people play this way. I don't think random switches always mean anything especially when there is no clear way to go (like day 1)

Incidently ntn is ALWAYS quiet and under the radar. That's why it's so hard to tell if he's a wolf (and for some reason equally hard to lynch)

[CrimsonFox]

Well, then, guess I am fooled. If Pass is a wolf in this game, I'll probably vote for him on Day One by rote from now on.

Good plan.

[Autumn]

I think we can both agree the second reveal was poorly done. mau was trying one last gasp to save himself there. But it's actually irrelevant to this discussion, because mau revealed his "scan" of me under the auspices of the first reveal (as a seer), not the second. mau made an unwise decison to hold himself off from being lynched on Day One by doing the early fake seer reveal when he probably should have just fallen on the sword.

You keep talking about mau's scans like they were real. It was all fake. There was no scan decision he made prior to the deadline, only whatever lie he would cook up hours later when he revealed his "scans". Your argument seems to be that the other wolves will have advised him it's a good idea to reveal that he scanned a fellow wolf (me, in your hypothetical) and reveal him as a villager. You know a wolf team isn't going to do that, and in particular, you know a wolf team with a veteran like me is not going to advise that.

You're really asking for us to believe some phenomenally dumb moves by every single wolf in the game if you think they decided to have mau try to hide a wolf behind a fake seer scan on Day One.

I'm not sure why you're arguing this point, you don't seem to understand me. I don't in any sense think that Mauboy's scan was real. I'm suggesting that it's possible he used his fake scan to try to buy trust for a wolf. While this would normally be a sketchy idea he made two other sketchy choices - one to reveal as the seer on day one, the second even sketchier to make up a fake role to suggest he wasn't the seer, that on day two or three. So I'm saying there is plenty of evidence of him making bad wolf decisions, decisions placed at least a day apart, leaving plenty of time for supposed guidance from the other wolves.

So, while I agree that it is unlikely a wolf team with a veteran wolf would advise "scanning" a wolf, I also believe a veteran wolf team would not suggest he make up a fake role. So either this is not a veteran wolf team, or he was not listening to his wolf team. If so then all bets are off on why he made his fake scan decision.

[CrimsonFox]

Not to be a prick but please no more bolded votes from players that are out of the WW portion of the game but still in the race... Thank you.

I skip over anything not bolded when looking at the votes so it doesn't matter to me if you say it just don't bold it please.

(trying to keep it as easy on myself as possible when trying to recalculate the votes later)

I think Danny is suspicious for trying to confuse EF. Better vote for him as a wolf again just to be sure.

[Autumn]

Looks like we have a vote on pass, a vote on NTN, and my vote. I'm taking it off of Mckerney to one of Jag, Chief, Hoops or Pass. I'm not going to vote Chief right now as I feel our arguing has clouded things there. I think these four make better targets right now than NTN, so I'm not going to second Pass. So it's either JAG or Hoops. This is pretty much a toss-up to me.

<b>UNVOTE MCKERNEY</b>

[CrimsonFox]

JAG:Was quiet until we said he was quiet, now is playing Chief inspector. Trying to "look good" perhaps? (No, Jag we will NEVER be happy! :))
CR: I had my suspicions, but now he seems pretty good. No real idea here.
ntn: Absolutely no idea. It is impossible to tell if ntn is a wolf by what he says. Only thing to look at is his voting and everyone says that is solid villager.
PF: Really have no read on him. He hasn't said a lot. He definitely could be a wolf, possibly brutal.
cougarfreak: HIs one outburst when he voted seemed odd to me. I haven't looked at his voting but I think he is a good wolf candidate. Can easily play the "I'm new" card and legitimately get away with it.
GE: Can only be the cunning. He MIGHT be the cunning. But not worth voting for, as has been said before, especially with the scan.
mckerney: Not sure. I thought mck was clear especially for starting the mau brigade the day of his lynch. Or perhaps the wolves were tired of mau and wanted to get rid of him or thought it was funny. But really I can't see them STARTING the roll of votes, just jumping on after it was started.
hoops: Thanks to the "hoops legend" where people get rid of him day 1-2, I have never actually played a game this long with hoops in either form. SO I really have no idea what he's like. He seems villagerish, but I think at least one of the wolves is a superlongtime player for sure. This could be him.
Pass: Erratic and outbursty. Accusatory and borderline dick about his accusations. I learned from KWhit that this strategy does work sometimes as a wolf.
Autumn: He's been the good guy sherlock holmes the whole game. Thing is, he always has very concise and good information most games I've seen him. He also fits the longtime player thing. I see this as being a strong possibility.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not sure why you're arguing this point, you don't seem to understand me. I don't in any sense think that Mauboy's scan was real. I'm suggesting that it's possible he used his fake scan to try to buy trust for a wolf. While this would normally be a sketchy idea he made two other sketchy choices - one to reveal as the seer on day one, the second even sketchier to make up a fake role to suggest he wasn't the seer, that on day two or three. So I'm saying there is plenty of evidence of him making bad wolf decisions, decisions placed at least a day apart, leaving plenty of time for supposed guidance from the other wolves.

So, while I agree that it is unlikely a wolf team with a veteran wolf would advise "scanning" a wolf, I also believe a veteran wolf team would not suggest he make up a fake role. So either this is not a veteran wolf team, or he was not listening to his wolf team. If so then all bets are off on why he made his fake scan decision.

No, I am understanding you perfectly. I just don't buy what you're selling.

Mau makes three key decisions. He hints at being the seer an hour or two before deadline on Day One. Then around midday on Day Two he reveals his scan (me). Then either late on Day Two or on Day Three (I forget which, I think it was early Day Three) he revealed he isn't the seer, but some special role with limited "film scan" abilities.

I believe mau made the first decision on his own. He was feeling the heat and up for the lynch. He didn't want to go down first day as a wolf. So he did the fake seer reveal. This is actually not that bad of a move; while it's certain he will eventually get caught, it probably buys him at least a day and might even get the real seer to reveal.

It's the "scan" decision where you completely lose me. So here we are, mau is thought to be the seer and now the village is clamoring for his seer scan. It is more than half a day later; plenty of time for the remaining wolves to be pinging him with PMs about what he should say. I am supposed to be one of those wolves in your scenario. You're saying that they are telling him to use his "scan" to hide a wolf--knowing he will soon be revealed--knowing his scans will be scrutinized for exactly the play you're suggesting. This is my disconnect. No way they tell him to do that. And with them telling him this, I don't believe mau just does this on his own. He won't willfully implicate a fellow wolf with his scan against the wishes of his fellow wolves.

His third decision was probably his own, but I think he only did it because he knew the gig was about up, with the seer not being targeted on Night Two. He was trying to find some other way to talk himself out of his earlier reveal. Well, villager didn't buy it. It wasn't really a very good decision, but his options were limited at this point. There was no way he was going to avoid being outted in the long run.

I see what you're saying. I just don't see a wolf team with me on that team--or any other moderately veteran wolf--making that scan decision, nor do I see mau willfully going against his fellow wolves' wishes in that situation.

[Chief Rum]

Looks like we have a vote on pass, a vote on NTN, and my vote. I'm taking it off of Mckerney to one of Jag, Chief, Hoops or Pass. I'm not going to vote Chief right now as I feel our arguing has clouded things there. I think these four make better targets right now than NTN, so I'm not going to second Pass. So it's either JAG or Hoops. This is pretty much a toss-up to me.

<b>UNVOTE MCKERNEY</b>

Actually to be fair, I apologize if you see this as arguing per say (witht he negative connotations thereof). I don't deny there was ugliness between me and Pass yesterday. I honestly believe you buy into what you're saying and we just have a disagreement here about how to interpret it. I view our discussion here as a rational one bringing in evidentiary points on each of our sides.

That doesn't mean it doesn't cloud things, but just to show you, I don't view our discussion here in a negative light like I did yesterday's tiff with Pass.

[JAG]

I am seriously having a surreal moment here. The person I thought was second most deserving of trust has a vote by the person I thought was third most deserving and suspicion from the only scanned villager left, the person I trusted third least to start the day has a vote on who I was leaning towards voting, meanwhile the person I trusted most thinks the person I want to vote is an obvious villager.

[mauchow]

At least I've got this thread to read at work bored outta my mind.

[Autumn]

I don't want to keep rehashing this, Chief, as I have nothing new to say. But let me just say I don't agree with a couple of your assumptions there. He may very well have made the scan decision himself, maybe the other wolves weren't around, or he didn't listen to them, whatever.

The whole theory breaks down, however, if we don't put scrutiny on the person "scanned." So ironically by giving you a hard time about this I'm onlyi supporting your theory that a veteran wolf shouldn't make that play. If i don't give you a hard time about this, then it was a perfect move for a wolf to make.

I also wonder if Mau's second reveal was planned, and if so whether McKerney's vote, or any other early votes on Mauboy might have been in anticipation of that.

[Autumn]

I am seriously having a surreal moment here. The person I thought was second most deserving of trust has a vote by the person I thought was third most deserving and suspicion from the only scanned villager left, the person I trusted third least to start the day has a vote on who I was leaning towards voting, meanwhile the person I trusted most thinks the person I want to vote is an obvious villager.

I just got a headache trying to parse this.

[Autumn]

At least I've got this thread to read at work bored outta my mind.

Feel free to contribute Mauboy! We're all eager to hear your thoughts on the situation.

[Chief Rum]

I also wonder if Mau's second reveal was planned, and if so whether McKerney's vote, or any other early votes on Mauboy might have been in anticipation of that.

It will be interesting at the end of the game to see which of our theories is the more correct.

This last thought here is also one that has occurred to me. I was actually accused of it by Pass for mau's first reveal, but I think we both agree that first move was likely to be a desperation move by mau in the face of being lynched. Such a move is much more likely for the second "reveal", especially if the wolves came to the logical assumption that it was only a matter of time before mau was outted.

[Chief Rum]

Well, escept I know your theory about me being a wolf is incorrect. ;)

I mean, more about the general thinking of the wolves in and around mau's reveal.

[Chief Rum]

I just got a headache trying to parse this.

I think I have the last part worked out. I think JAG has me as his most trusted, and Pass as least trusted, but I am calling Pass an "obvious villager". I think I even used that term. Or it could be ntn. But I don't think so.

[CrimsonFox]

Chief, you are doing a lot of assuming, which then feedsd the rest of your argument. You are assuming that all the wolves are telling mau what to do AND you're assuming he will listen to them. I do see what you're saying though. But I'm not convinced mau wouldn't do that, either because he thought people would buy it or thought it was funny or something or maybe because you as a wolf were yelling at him for his fake seer reveal). Not saying it's a brilliant move, just that some people do things for weird or emotional reasons. You may be right of course that maybe mau said you as a villager knowing you were a villager to gain some trust. But that's all several moves ahead type of stuff. I think everything those first two days was a series of panic moves. I also see the wolves just saying "Sheesh, you're on your own", especially after the martin debacle.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, do you want to walk me through why you think Pass is a poor vote today? Because I'm with Autumn and Crimson on their "nope" to the logic that Chief outlined for Pass = villager.

[JAG]

Danny, if you're still reading, what's your take on Pass?

[CrimsonFox]

Feel free to contribute Mauboy! We're all eager to hear your thoughts on the situation.

\
Yes, Mauboy, tell us who yelled at you for making up paparazzi and seer reveal. Who yelled the loudest, what names did they call you, etc.

[Autumn]

Yes, another angle to take would be to look at those who were openly skeptical of Mau's reveal, yet didn't get immediately night killed as CF and DV did.

[JAG]

Danny, do you want to walk me through why you think Pass is a poor vote today? Because I'm with Autumn and Crimson on their "nope" to the logic that Chief outlined for Pass = villager.

Alright, that timing is eerie.

[Autumn]

Danny's so popular all of a sudden!

[CrimsonFox]

Ya know I wonder if Chief is playing the EXTREME logic game as a wolf, that is to take a simple accusatory statement and write such a novel about each and every piece of it that it infuriates the person accusing and they blow up making them look wolfish. And in the end everyone forgets what the actual question was.

[JAG]

I just got a headache trying to parse this.

You can substitute actual players by looking at my list from earlier today.

[CrimsonFox]

I think JAG and hoops called each other to make that post together. They are BFFs

[hoopsguy]

Crimson, I just realized that you are in the same "trusted dead guy" state as Danny. I haven't been doing as good a job of tracking this stuff over the last day or two. Anyway, glad that you are being vocal today, even if some of the comments seem more aimed for laughs than pure analysis.

[Autumn]

I'm going to go ahead and vote JAG. I've already gone over any reasoning for the vote. Nothing really particular on him, I just think we should have another candidate besides Pass and I'm not sure NTN is the smartest one.

<b>VOTE JAG</b>

[CrimsonFox]

How could you not know I was dead? One of the big twists in this game was that I was killed instead of Lathum the BG.

[CrimsonFox]

And yeah, sorry if I'm not much help today analyzingwise. At this point I literally don't know. I've gotten "vibes" from people but I think we're really dealing with really skilled players and I also think the village has done a lot of work for the wolves. I like Pass and Jag votes. But I"d also like Autmn/CR/Hoops votes just because I think one of you three is also a wolf.

[Danny]

I'm in high demand! Let me start by saying I'm not as against voting pass as much as chief isn though I would be unlikely to vote him if I had one.

I think his spout with chief in addition to him being willing to work with me on a potential 3rd candidate is my reasoning. I lean strongly toward ntn being a villager which means we likely had two of three vote getters as villagers (along with pass himself). If he's a wolf, why would he not just vote one of us? Especially me, knowing he had a great excuse for the vote as self defense.

My only gut concern about him is after I commented about his reserved play he really starting going a bit over the top.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn, the D1 reveal by mauboy seemed really odd to me. I read it shortly after it happened and kept waiting for someone to react to it in some manner. I think if you re-read my post on it, 30 minutes after the fact, you'll see that I'm not really decided on whether I believe it but astonished that pre-deadline business seemed to be carrying on as if that post wasn't there.

I think a wolf looking to flip their vote would have been more likely to try and call it out before I did ... they certainly had time to do so. That makes me discount, to some extent, the "pre-determined votes with intent to remove post-fake-reveal" idea that you've suggested.

[Chief Rum]

Ya know I wonder if Chief is playing the EXTREME logic game as a wolf, that is to take a simple accusatory statement and write such a novel about each and every piece of it that it infuriates the person accusing and they blow up making them look wolfish. And in the end everyone forgets what the actual question was.

Ha! Ask around about my rep, both with respect to logic and to long posts. :D

Allegiance ain't got nuttin' to widit.

[Autumn]

That's a good point, Hoops. I know I had missed his little "seer" bit entirely, and I'm not sure how common that is. Unfortunately that paints you worse, because as I was reading that earlier today I was thinking "Maybe the wolves realized no one was noticing his hint and Hoops was pointing it out for them." But you're right, there were not immediate vote changes. Maybe he took them by surprise. We know Martin wasn't around ;-)

[hoopsguy]

How could you not know I was dead? One of the big twists in this game was that I was killed instead of Lathum the BG.

It was just one of those things where I wasn't 100% factoring in the "cleared guy posting in thread!" stuff early on, when we had a more crowded room. Then I was on the block yesterday and spent some time seriously contemplating what the game would be like for me if I was lynched.

So I more or less locked in on Danny (yesterday's lynch) without really carefully accounting for the other players who were already in the same position and who should be strong voices the rest of the way even if they can't cast votes.

[Danny]

These are very difficult votes due to our wolf lynched being runaway meaningless votes. Normally two wolf lynches would give you tons of valuable info.

[hoopsguy]

That's a good point, Hoops. I know I had missed his little "seer" bit entirely, and I'm not sure how common that is. Unfortunately that paints you worse, because as I was reading that earlier today I was thinking "Maybe the wolves realized no one was noticing his hint and Hoops was pointing it out for them." But you're right, there were not immediate vote changes. Maybe he took them by surprise. We know Martin wasn't around ;-)

I'm not in position to tell anyone how to interpret my actions. I'm just reacting to something I saw in the thread and trying to give context to the reaction.

FWIW, I think that I would have moved my vote at that time if I wasn't already on NTN. It just wasn't worth potentially burning the seer on Day 1.

[Chief Rum]

Autumn, the D1 reveal by mauboy seemed really odd to me. I read it shortly after it happened and kept waiting for someone to react to it in some manner. I think if you re-read my post on it, 30 minutes after the fact, you'll see that I'm not really decided on whether I believe it but astonished that pre-deadline business seemed to be carrying on as if that post wasn't there.

I think a wolf looking to flip their vote would have been more likely to try and call it out before I did ... they certainly had time to do so. That makes me discount, to some extent, the "pre-determined votes with intent to remove post-fake-reveal" idea that you've suggested.

Actually, that was more Pass suggesting that yesterday when he was trying to explain away my second and longer vote stay on mau. Autumn was talking about the second reveal a couple days later, and I tend to agree with his thinking on that one being a distinct possibility.

I think good votes on Day 1 mean a lot more than good votes on Day 3, for this game at least.

[Autumn]

I just read many pages of this thread to try to get something to hang my hat on. All I came away with is I don't know why it wasn't obvious to us at the time that Mauboy was faking it. He posted after the night deadline, said nothing about his scan and went to bed. lol oh man.

[Danny]

Maybe not much help, but if I was ranking my vote preference today it might go like this

JAG


Pass
Hoops and Autumn
Cougar
Packer
Mckerney
CR
NTN

Maybe something like that, obviously I now take back what I said on pass as looking at him in regards to everyine else, he is a good candidte with jag I think. I would still 100 percent vote jag though

[hoopsguy]

Does someone have a vote count?

[CrimsonFox]

Actually Danny I came to the same concusion. If I had a vote today, it would be Jag.

Mainly because I'm looking at people who are quiet until you tell them they are quiet, and then are very talkative. Pass would be my second choice for his intensity and insistence on doing a cunning hunt but that could just be zealoutness.

[hoopsguy]

I'll go along with the voice of our dead villager allies. I'll value that above what I think (by a fairly small margin) is the correct play today because I know - barring anything really silly that isn't spelled out in the rules - their opinions are offered without any motivation to steer us wrong.

UNVOTE PASS
VOTE JAG

[ntndeacon]

Maybe not much help, but if I was ranking my vote preference today it might go like this

JAG


Pass
Hoops and Autumn
Cougar
Packer
Mckerney
CR
NTN

Maybe something like that, obviously I now take back what I said on pass as looking at him in regards to everyine else, he is a good candidte with jag I think. I would still 100 percent vote jag though


I assume GE would be toward the bottom of this list too, Danny.
I think it is getting close to time to start looking into those that there is limited opinion about... namely Packer, cougar, mckerney who have all joined me in the quieter approach to the game.

[cougarfreak]

Well, there seems to be a whole lot of talking going on, but not much being said. I voted Pass yesterday, and am inclined to do so again today. Is there a vote count out there?

[EagleFan]

As of post 1587:

JAG 2 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[Danny]

I assume GE would be toward the bottom of this list too, Danny.
I think it is getting close to time to start looking into those that there is limited opinion about... namely Packer, cougar, mckerney who have all joined me in the quieter approach to the game.

The thing is, both Packer and Mckerney have votes in their favor from day 1. Packer made the first vote on Mauboy (MartinD later would have been vote #2, I doubt the wolves would vote 1-2 for a fellow wolf. Mckerney also had a solid vote later in the day for Mauboy.

[ntndeacon]

Well Iam fine for voting JAG, I just don't want it to be a runaway if we can get info from it.

[ntndeacon]

Vote JAG

[EagleFan]

As of post 1591:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[EagleFan]

To answer a question about the race/game.

The werewolf portion will end when it plays itself to the end (one way or the other). The race will end on the final leg which will be after we get to the final three teams as it does on the show.

Either may end first and the other will continue until it ends.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not in love with JAG as a candidate, but I have already spoken much about my thoughts on ntndeacon. I don'tt hink I can go there.

I'll go with a third canddiate, one brought up by Autumn earlier today. If anyone has been taking possible advantage of knowing mau was going to reveal, it would be mckerney with his early Day 3 vote on mau. Plus, as ntn has said, he has fallen back into being a little too quiet.

VOTE MCKERNEY

[EagleFan]

As of post 1594:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)
mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594)

[JAG]

Not much more I can think of to make the case for myself. I regret being so locked into Danny that I didn't sufficiently consider alternatives. I had the same thoughts about saldana last game and it paid off, but obviously not so this go around.

[mauchow]

This WW has been like a bad comedy novel so far. Silly twists (my reveals), long-winded stories (nearly everyone today) with no points. I'm reading a lot of this stuff and it's funny, from my perspective anyway.

Keep it going though, I need something to do during my work days :)

[Autumn]

Wow a lot of votes still missing. This seems to be a new trend, not voting until the last hour. Odd.

[cougarfreak]

I'm sticking to my guns from yesterday.........I still think I get a wolfy smell from Pass.

vote Pass

[EagleFan]

As of post 1599:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)
mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)

[Passacaglia]

I don't think I was insulting or outbursty, but calling me a dick was kind of uncool.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1601:

JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), ntndeacon (1591)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)
mckerney 1 - Chief Rum (1594)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)

[Passacaglia]

I don't think I was insulting or outbursty, but calling me a dick was kind of uncool.

I know the person who said I was insulting is not the person who called me a dick, but seriously, if anyone thinks I'm ever being insulting, please just tell me at the time instead of casually mentioning it later. I really didn't mean to be. I don't know in what way I was, so please tell me that, too.

And while I'm at it, I will say that I am insulted at being called a dick (which was probably clear from my last post).

[ntndeacon]

well I clearly don't mind going to mckerney after what I said earlier, but I don't plan on making it a tie either, though I guess it doesn't make that big of difference anymore except prolonging the game as the wolves can't kill either

[EagleFan]

Starting the writeup for the race shortly...

[GoldenEagle]

VOTE MCKERNEY

I think there is something a bit suspicious about that I had mentioned yesterday. The vote on mauboy seems to be a bit to convenient and an easy place to hide a good vote.

[EagleFan]

The teams slowly start their way on the next leg of the race. The teams race to the airport to begin their journey.

As the teams are at the airport we wee Lathum talking to a security guard asking for directions. Just then he grabs him and pulls him around a corner and out of sight. Soon Lathum appears with the guards ID in his hand and blood on his shirt.

Lathum and Jackal use the ID to get outside and are confronted by a couple of maintenence men. Soon the men are laying on the ground lifeless while Jackal and Lathum put on their uniforms and ake their way towards a plane.

They enter a plane and soon there is screaming as they try to take control of teh situation. They storm the cockpit and inform the pilots that they are taking them to Jamaica...

The Race has just taken an amazing wrong turn...

[Danny]

WTF

[EagleFan]

The other teams are on their way to Jamaica as well. We see the Fembots reading up on parasailing while other teams are preparing in their own manner.

The last thing hat we see is mau and Danny on the phone. We here just a small part of the conversation.

"We know where they are headed. They are goinbg to Jamaica. They are dangerous, you should have an armed response prepared. We don't think they intend to go peacefully"

[JAG]

That's awesome.

[Danny]

AHAHAHAHA!

[EagleFan]

As the teams start to arrive in Jamaica Team Five seems to have taken a slight lead and arrives at the roadblock first.

GoldenEagle is doing the roadblock. He sits in front of a very large bowl of spicy jerk chicken. In a race first, this is probably the best tasting challenge we have ever had. Just a little spicy and a lot of it though.

[GoldenEagle]

Last time I had a meal in Jamaica, I got the Nero virus. Let's hope that is not the case here.

[Autumn]

Well, I didn't realize that was an option ...

[EagleFan]

Team Fembot arrives next and hoops begins to devour the chicken but she is slowing down due to the sheer volume. She seems rather upset when she sees GoldenEagle finish and Team Five continues on their way.

Team Reebok arrives next and ntn begins the challenge. As he is trying it seems tha Autumn is making gagging noises near hoops. Soon the affect is noticed as hoops can't keep down what she was eating.

She composes herself however and finihed before ntn and they move on.

After Team Reebok leaves we finally see JAG and mckerney show up, a while later it is Danny and mau.

Back at the airport...

We see an airplane on the ground in the middle of the airport with a multinational counter terrorism force surrounding it.

[cougarfreak]

That's hilarious!

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that EF uses the words "slurping" and "sucking" to describe my spicy jerk chicken meal.

[ntndeacon]

Unvote JAG
vote mckerney

[EagleFan]

On to the detours.

Only Team Reebok attempts the golf challenge and they use their skills to sink the putts quickly and advance.

Along the coast it seems that Team Four were the most prepared and had the best luck as they made up the most time of the teams.

Team Fembot was highly prepared and had a plan in place but hoops stomach was still giving her trouble. She does not know why but maybe she shouldn't have eaten that snack that Team reebok offered her at the airport...

[Autumn]

Boy, chicks and their weak stomachs.

[EagleFan]

The teams are on their way to the pitstop.... will the last team to arrive be eliminated? Or will they just skip past the last to arrive part and just be eliminated?

[EagleFan]

As we see the first team come into view we see that we have a new leader....

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle make their way to the mat first....

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle, you are the first team to arrive...

[Danny]

BTW, part of our plan for the day involved taking a cell phone, but never thought it would be used to call in Lathum and Jackal hijacking a plane.

[EagleFan]

At the airport all of the attention is upon a pair dressed in maintenance uniforms. They are standing at the door of a plane and yelling at whoever will listen...

"We only want to make it to the Falls.... Please, we want to kill Phil!!!!"

"Put your hands in the air!!!!"

They begin to walk down the ladder...

"Do not move!!!"

Time slows down as they continue to walk...

[Autumn]

Lathum and Jackal, was that your actual plan??

[EagleFan]

We see Team Fembot jumping onto the mat... they are the second team to arrive...

Soon after Team Reebok arrives as team three...

JAG and mckerney are the 4th team to arrive...

With little surprise (with what is going on at the airport)...

Danny and mau are the 5th team to arrive...

[GoldenEagle]

Woot!

[EagleFan]

We fade back in at the airport and see Lathum and Jackal continueing to climb down the steps.

"One last warning!!!! Do not move!!!"

Lathum stops with Jackal nearly bumping him over...

"Sorry, we can't..."

He gives Jackal one last look and they begin forward again into a hail of bullets.

They slowly fall to the ground. Both badly hurt but still moving.

Lathum tries to stand again as we see a gun barrel enter the screen.

A flash of the barrel and Lathum drops motionless.

"Not this time bitch..."

The camera pans back and we see Phil standing with gun in hand...

Lathum and Jackal have been eliminated from the Race.

Both have been eliminated completely from the game now as they are out of both halves.

[Autumn]

Well you can't say they didn't give it a good try.

[Autumn]

So I think right now we have Mckerney up by 1. I can't say I'm sold that McK is a villager, but looking back after night 1 he was pretty strong going against Mauboy. Maybe that was a ploy, knowing he'd look good eventually, but it's a pretty well done, subtle one if it is.

[hoopsguy]

Agreed, I'm going to be pretty interested to see how this one goes down. It has once again been a pretty cautious day of voting.

[mckerney]

Vote Passacaglia

I'd rather not cause a tie right now, Passacaglia seems like the best candidate I to put my vote on without doing that. If nothing else me being lynched will show a late swing of votes to a villager.

[hoopsguy]

NTN, can you explain what drove the vote change at this stage in the game?

[JAG]

Not much choice, but at least it's someone I haven't felt that sure of.

Vote mckerney

[Autumn]

I'm not liking this.

[Autumn]

4-2-2-1 I think? Mck-Pass-JAG-NTN

[EagleFan]

As of post 1636:

mckerney 4 - Chief Rum (1594), GoldenEagle (1606), ntndeacon (1618), JAG (1634)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1599), mckerney (1632)
JAG 2 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[hoopsguy]

Not much of a choice? I'm pretty sure Pass was a choice there, unless I'm not up to speed on my vote counts. And I expect that you are well aware of the score ... I know I was last night when I was feeling the heat.

[Autumn]

JAG's clearly held his vote all day, so I have to think he was waiting for someone he liked to start getting a lead and jump on that. He's seemed to avoid Pass.

[mckerney]

Unvote Passacaglia
Vote JAG

[Autumn]

NTN's switch doesn't make much sense to me. McKerney was a vote option all day long, why switch now.

[ntndeacon]

sure. Basically I think there is too many of us quiet...quieter than usual. I still won't be upset if JAG goes however.

[hoopsguy]

And Day 6 is the time to sort out the quiet guys?

[hoopsguy]

Looks like Pass is holding tight to his vote as well.

[Autumn]

Is that everybody's vote? Are there nine of us? I was thinking there were ten.

[Autumn]

Oh pass right, thanks.

[ntndeacon]

well I clearly don't mind going to mckerney after what I said earlier, but I don't plan on making it a tie either, though I guess it doesn't make that big of difference anymore except prolonging the game as the wolves can't kill either

Autumn this was my post from before GE's vote. I don't agree that mckerney was a possibility through out the day. it was only after GE's vote that Icould change and not cause a tie.

[hoopsguy]

So why mckerney over Pass in this spot, NTN?

If you are a villager, and you see JAG and Pass both hanging onto their votes late in the day and then avoiding each other do you start worrying about getting played?

[Danny]

So Jag and Pass both wolves anyone? I expect to see Pass vote Mckerney here

[Autumn]

Fair enough, I had forgotten that post NTN. I guess I meant I'd had a vote on him for most of the day, but by the time you were voting the case was different.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, are we going to have shenanigans tonight?

[EagleFan]

As of post 1652:

mckerney 4 - Chief Rum (1594), GoldenEagle (1606), ntndeacon (1618), JAG (1634)
JAG 3 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), mckerney (1640)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[Autumn]

If that's the case, if Mckerney moved to Pass, Hoops and I could move.

[Danny]

I have a strong inclination that if we lynch Mckerney, we'll be down to our last lynch.

[ntndeacon]

well they need sorting out at some point. plus I don't like Chief, GE or Autumn as choices, and have been reminded of reasons cougar and Pass might not be wolves. Maybe it was a mistake to switch and I am being just antsybut either one of those folks are decent candidates in my mind.

[Autumn]

I guess that's still not enough.

[Autumn]

I don't like Packerfan's vote right about now i must say.

[Danny]

But Mckerney has actual evidence to support not being a wolf. Jag and Pass have nothing and are looking awfully suspicious based on their behavior here.

[Autumn]

Well, how about it Pass? Where are you going?

[Danny]

I think Packer is a likely villager, so hopefully he comes on and can switch his vote.

[Autumn]

Notice JAG no longer has anything to say? That's not how he behaves as a villager in a crucial last minute vote.

[hoopsguy]

GE + NTN - are you guys really feeling good about the vote you guys are holding here?

Do you really think that (as villagers) Pass and JAG would be holding onto their votes late, clamming up when questioned, all the while hanging out in the thread right now? Does that seem like prime-time villager play?

[ntndeacon]

So why mckerney over Pass in this spot, NTN?

If you are a villager, and you see JAG and Pass both hanging onto their votes late in the day and then avoiding each other do you start worrying about getting played?

of courseI am worried about being played, and sure both could be a wolf....of the two I would believe JAG is more likely than Pass though.

[Danny]

Come on guys, we're getting a gimme here. Jag is a wolf.

[mckerney]

I guess that's still not enough.

We could tie it, but Pass still has his vote that he'd certainly put on me in that situation. I think the only way I'm not the one getting lynched at this point is if PF, Pass, and cougerfreak vote for JAG.

[ntndeacon]

Unvote mckerney
vote JAG

[Passacaglia]

Well, how about it Pass? Where are you going?

Honestly, if nothing changes in the next 9 minutes, I'm leaning toward not voting.

[hoopsguy]

With them clamming up like this, it makes me feel like we're in endgame and they think they control the voting board. Otherwise, they would be putting some effort into persuading us that we're reading it wrong right now.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, are we going to have shenanigans tonight?

I always make sure there are no shenanigans, you know that! :)

[Danny]

Pass or Cougar if you're a villager, vote JAG. We have ourselves a wolf.

[mckerney]

Unvote mckerney
vote JAG

Or if that happens.

[Autumn]

Let's see how Pass likes that.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1668:

JAG 4 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), mckerney (1640), ntndeacon (1666)
mckerney 3 - Chief Rum (1594), GoldenEagle (1606) JAG (1634)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[Passacaglia]

Unvote mckerney
vote JAG

Okay, well if that's the only change, I'm still thinking of not voting. The only way my vote could change anything is by causing a tie still, and I don't think we want that.

[Autumn]

Pretty good chance Pass ties it up at the last second if we leave it there. Cougar, you reading along?

[Danny]

Pass won't do that. If he does, he is giving us two wolves. And remember a tie vote means no night kill

[Passacaglia]

Pass won't do that. If he does, he is giving us two wolves. And remember a tie vote means no night kill

Damn, yet I'm the one that gets called accusatory today.

[GoldenEagle]

UNVOTE MCKERNEY
VOTE JAG

[GoldenEagle]

I am taking a leap of faith here.

[Autumn]

Well, this is Pass ... in one game recently I was 100% convinced Pass had a victory condition that involved causing a tie.

[Passacaglia]

Damn, yet I'm the one that gets called accusatory today.

That was probably uncalled for on my part, I'm sorry.

[Danny]

Damn, yet I'm the one that gets called accusatory today.

If you tied the vote, saving JAG and giving us no lynch, it would mean you were a wolf. No way would a villager do that.

[JAG]

Notice JAG no longer has anything to say? That's not how he behaves as a villager in a crucial last minute vote.

Say what you will, but I was putting my toddler to sleep, so yeah, I had to vote and run. Now I'm back and ready to be lynched.

[EagleFan]

As of post 1680:

JAG 5 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), mckerney (1640), ntndeacon (1666), GoldenEagle (1678)
mckerney 2 - Chief Rum (1594), JAG (1634)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[Passacaglia]

Well, this is Pass ... in one game recently I was 100% convinced Pass had a victory condition that involved causing a tie.

I still can't believe that. I told you guys I was just keeping the vote close! If I really wanted a tie in those games, I would have just waited until the last second and voted to create one.

[Autumn]

I can give Pass some leeway - we know he likes to hang onto his vote to the last minute, villager or wolf. If JAG comes up wolf, Pass won't be the only one I would look at.

[cougarfreak]

Pretty good chance Pass ties it up at the last second if we leave it there. Cougar, you reading along?

Yeah, I think we got us a wolf anyway.......

[Autumn]

I still can't believe that. I told you guys I was just keeping the vote close! If I really wanted a tie in those games, I would have just waited until the last second and voted to create one.

:-)

[cougarfreak]

Packer seems to vote and run.....and I think I'm right on Pass.

[EagleFan]

deadline

[Autumn]

*chews fingernails*

[JAG]

7 guests

[JAG]

Obviously closet WW fans. Come on guys, you don't have to be embarrassed.

[hoopsguy]

Yes, this was a tense last 20 minutes. If JAG is a wolf, I think we've drawn some battle lines here today. And made the wolf night kill more interesting.

[EagleFan]

You gather around and discuss the day's events on the race. Who knew that one team had such murderous rage?

After much discussion you focus your attention on JAG. You question him relentlessly and get little from him.

Eventually you notice that he has a business card from the rival network.

JAG was a vanilla mole.

He is completely out of the game as he has been eliminated in both portions of the game.

You have found another mole, could things be looking up?

[Danny]

If JAG turns up wolf, I think the wolves kill me again :)

[hoopsguy]

One note - if JAG is a wolf (not cunning) and GE is not the night kill I wouldn't completely let GE off the hook. He had a high pressure vote early and then reversed it late. But it might have been a "we can't have you on mckerney if JAG does get lynched" play, as they sacrifice a knight to keep the queen (so to speak) on the board and moving freely.

[Danny]

YES!!!!!!

Glad I finally nailed one

[GoldenEagle]

Whew. We still have the brutal left.

[Danny]

One note - if JAG is a wolf (not cunning) and GE is not the night kill I wouldn't completely let GE off the hook. He had a high pressure vote early and then reversed it late. But it might have been a "we can't have you on mckerney if JAG does get lynched" play, as they sacrifice a knight to keep the queen (so to speak) on the board and moving freely.

I agree with this and was going to mention it as well.

[Autumn]

Yes!

[Danny]

This should mean there were in fact 5 wolves, and now the cunning and brutal remain.

[Autumn]

Well, we don't know if the brutal or the cunning are in the game. Or how many wolves we have left.

[hoopsguy]

Good work, Danny + CrimsonFox :)

I feel better about some other players as well (hi, Autumn!) but will leave that alone for now until we see the night kill posted.

[Autumn]

Sorry, Danny, posted at the same time. But do we know all roles are in the game?

[Passacaglia]

Nice!

[Autumn]

Yes, Hoops, the best part about catching one is you can start trusting some people.

[Passacaglia]

One note - if JAG is a wolf (not cunning) and GE is not the night kill I wouldn't completely let GE off the hook. He had a high pressure vote early and then reversed it late. But it might have been a "we can't have you on mckerney if JAG does get lynched" play, as they sacrifice a knight to keep the queen (so to speak) on the board and moving freely.

Too bad it's a poor percentage play.

[cougarfreak]

One note - if JAG is a wolf (not cunning) and GE is not the night kill I wouldn't completely let GE off the hook. He had a high pressure vote early and then reversed it late. But it might have been a "we can't have you on mckerney if JAG does get lynched" play, as they sacrifice a knight to keep the queen (so to speak) on the board and moving freely.

I had actually thought of that as well. I'm looking Pass, GE, and PF tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Well, we don't know if the brutal or the cunning are in the game. Or how many wolves we have left.

Two of the three villager roles have been in the game (no duke yet) ... I like the chances of both those guys still being in this game.

[Danny]

Another point of strategy, we now know the last two wolves are brutal and cunning. If the sponder and rob wannabee are in the game they would have to be villagers right? May be time for them to use their abilities and prove they are villagers and give us some sort of circle of trust.

[hoopsguy]

Too bad it's a poor percentage play.

It probably still is, but those percentages start moving up when you have fewer players and more trusted villager remaining.

[Autumn]

Danny, those roles can be Wolf roles too.

[Danny]

I don't see a line in the rules saying the roles may or may not be in the game. As far as I can tell, it seems to indicate that all roles are in fact in the game.

[Autumn]

I tend to agree, there had to be a wolf on McKerney besides JAG, I think. After NTN flopped that would leave it between Chief and GE for the village to choose between. Maybe they're both wolves, so GE flopped.

Frankly, I think there's a lot of people who could still be suspect.

[EagleFan]

Correction, JAG is still in the Race, but out of WW. Got his race team mixed up in my head when I said that.

[Danny]

Danny, those roles can be Wolf roles too.

But if there is in fact a cunning and a brutal then both those roles have to be villagers. There is only two wolves left and two wolf roles.

[Autumn]

You're assuming that wolf roles and race roles can't overlap. I'm not sure that's true. Do we know that?

[GoldenEagle]

I think ntn is where we should start tomorrow. I know I have been on him all game. Since we got one back today, we can afford to take somewhat of a risk.

I know I will be around tomorrow since the hoops and other basically ensured I will not be the night kill.

[EagleFan]

As you gather later you notice yet another person wearing one of those T-shirts.

Autumn has been talked down by the moles.

Autumn was a vanilla villager and he was also The Sponsor.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, those roles can be Wolf roles too.

Only if:
1.) There were six starting wolves
2.) Multi-roles are allowed (cunning sponsor)
3.) Either brutal or cunning are not in game

I think it is pretty likely that the Sponsor and/or Wannabe roles would be villagers. Maybe not a slam dunk, but a decent chance. I also like that the idea is coming from a cleared (non-voting) player in Danny rather than someone who might have an ulterior motive in suggesting this.

[Danny]

Right now I am guessing the last two wolves are Pass and GE.

[Autumn]

And for what it's worth, the village roles say that not all of them may be in the game. It doesn't say the same for the wolves. I don't want us to rest too hard on any assumptions.

It's interesting that GE pointed out that the brutal is still in the game at lynch though. Didn't mention the cunning.

[Danny]

And now with Autumns death, we see some evidence supporting that. I'd feel good about the other wanabee being a villager as well.

[EagleFan]

JAG and Autumn are still in the race in their teams but have lost their remaining effort points.

[Autumn]

Well, and that's that. I will now haunt you, Obi Wan style.

And also beat you in the race.

[Danny]

I am glad you are still in the race and can contribute.

[hoopsguy]

I think ntn is where we should start tomorrow. I know I have been on him all game. Since we got one back today, we can afford to take somewhat of a risk.

I know I will be around tomorrow since the hoops and other basically ensured I will not be the night kill.

You were correct, but I didn't post my thoughts on your continued suspect nature until four minutes after the deadline. So I had no bearing on their decision, unless you know something I don't :popcorn:

[mckerney]

I tend to agree, there had to be a wolf on McKerney besides JAG, I think. After NTN flopped that would leave it between Chief and GE for the village to choose between. Maybe they're both wolves, so GE flopped.

Frankly, I think there's a lot of people who could still be suspect.

I agree with this, and I think there was one in the first three votes on me. JAG was who I was planning to vote for on the start today, but with three votes on him early I was afraid if there was a 4th they would decide to cut their losses and we'd have another runaway vote today. I decided to wait until a move on someone else was made, which happened to be me but thankfully we were able to turn the vote back towards JAG.

[Passacaglia]

I think the biggest reveal we need tomo is the duke. Although, there's probably no reason for the duke to reveal until the end, right? I guess unless he's getting a lot of votes, since we want people to make meaningful votes for people other than him? Maybe my head will be clearer on that in the morning.

[Danny]

Autumn and I am not saying we simply believe a reveal as wannabee, but if someone shows evidence they have one of those two roles, I think they are definitely a villager.

[GoldenEagle]

And for what it's worth, the village roles say that not all of them may be in the game. It doesn't say the same for the wolves. I don't want us to rest too hard on any assumptions.

It's interesting that GE pointed out that the brutal is still in the game at lynch though. Didn't mention the cunning.

I said that because the cunning, at this point, can't hurt us. The seer has been dead for awhile now. The brutal is the only role remaining that will really hurt the village.

[EagleFan]

Race Standings
1st - Team Five
2nd - Team Fembot (+0:45)
3rd - Team Reebok (+1:05)
4th - Team Four (+2:50)
5th - Team Six (+5:10)

[Danny]

The duke should not reveal for no reason.

[PackerFanatic]

Well done everyone! Sorry again for not being around...stupid training at work has taken more of my time that I expected recently (hence my being fairly quiet for most of the game). Plus I was admittedly putting more into the race portion of the game early, not that it helped at all in the end, heh.

[hoopsguy]

The Greek chorus aspect of this game is going to be interesting tomorrow :) Already was today, but now throw in the cleared Autumn ... woo boy.

[EagleFan]

The deadlines will remain for tomorrow but I will probably not get to post the results until sometime after midnight EST.

Will be posting the next leg information shortly

[Danny]

I think we have to move both Hoops and Mckerney up the trust list.

[Autumn]

I wouldn't forget Chief either. He was hesitant to vote Pass or JAG today, waiting until late to add McKerney to the mix.

[Passacaglia]

The duke should not reveal for no reason.

If you mean what I think you mean, that makes sense -- yes, there should be a reason.

[Autumn]

Yes, I agree. I think a vote for Hoops now is crazy. And if McKerney proves a wolf after his moves on Mauboy and then JAG, more power to him.

NTN made a move, but under pressure. Golden Eagle at least could have just not showed up, I wasn't expecting him to, but again was under a lot of pressure, if he was a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

The Greek chorus aspect of this game is going to be interesting tomorrow :) Already was today, but now throw in the cleared Autumn ... woo boy.

What? Is this something from the race, and if so, does it apply to the WW part of the game?

[Autumn]

I can't believe that despite making Hoopsguy throw up jerk chicken, my team's still an hour behind.

[Autumn]

What? Is this something from the race, and if so, does it apply to the WW part of the game?

We are all going to sing for you tomorrow, Pass. Didn't you read the rules?

[Danny]

Right now Pass is the player who really sticks out. If we did lynch him and he turned out to be the brutal, I think really moves up GoldenEagle. I still don't think we lynch GE unless only the cunning is left.

[Danny]

If we lynched Pass and he turned out to be the cunning, we could clear GE.

[Autumn]

I'm not sure if we're so much a Greek chorus as backseat drivers.

[Passacaglia]

I still don't think we lynch GE unless only the cunning is left.

There's the Danny I know! Thought I lost you for a while there!

[Danny]

Oh and NTN's switch today was key. If that doesn't happen, I think Mckerney gets lynched. I've always been leaning towards him being a villager, but I think even more so now. I don't think he does those switches as a wolf. He either sticks with JAG to buy trust or sticks with Mckerney to try and lynch a villager.

[hoopsguy]

Yes, I agree. I think a vote for Hoops now is crazy. And if McKerney proves a wolf after his moves on Mauboy and then JAG, more power to him.

NTN made a move, but under pressure. Golden Eagle at least could have just not showed up, I wasn't expecting him to, but again was under a lot of pressure, if he was a wolf.

Stop saying stuff like that ... what, are you trying to get my night-killed???? :D