WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins)

[Passacaglia]

We are all going to sing for you tomorrow, Pass. Didn't you read the rules?

I have a feeling I'm not going to like your tune.

[Danny]

Just for numbers purposes, we're 6-2 now. It's actually not bad at all if we lynch the brutal first. Either way we only get one more missed lynch. And getting the brutal just takes out an extra person we know isn't a wolf.

[JAG]

Beep beep beep

(oops, wrong game)

[Danny]

I'm tired, so I'm off for the night. Good job today guys!

[EagleFan]

When you are allowed to begin you will start at Jamaica and travel to Frankfurt. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who likes life in the fast lane? Requires Travel, Mental.


You have a clue to the Detour.

Drink it: Drink It, Each member must down an oversized stein of beer. Requires Eating and mental.
- Each down the beer and get the clue.
- If you can take that much quickly you can be done soon, if not it could be a long and frustrating task

Find It: Find the next clue hidden along the banks of the river Main. Requires Mental and Travel.
- Search for the hidden clue along the banks of the river.
- If you can spot it quickly you will gain an advantage; miss it and it could cost you the race.

Pit Stop - Mardasson Memorial in Bastogne

[EagleFan]

Leg Five in Pictures

http://www.realestatewebmasters.com/blogs/uploads/dubai-commercial-property(2).jpg

http://www.alphadinar.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/the-palm.jpg

http://www.bestwaytoinvest.com/UserFiles/Image/Dubai_Sheikh_Zayed_Road.jpg

[EagleFan]

Leg Six in Pictures

http://image34.webshots.com/34/5/97/82/246759782gvILQa_ph.jpg

http://missq.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/jerk-chicken.jpg

http://articleurge.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/parasailing.jpg

http://imavex.vo.llnwd.net/o18/clients/golfconnection/images/Ritz_Carlton_Photos/Hole_3_Green.jpg

http://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2004/08/06/ba_hijack06b.jpg

http://www.explorerjamaica.com/images/Dunn's-River-Falls-Ocho-Rios.jpg

[Autumn]

I can't wait to see Lathum and Jackal's take on this - nice picture, EF.

[ntndeacon]

I can't believe that despite making Hoopsguy throw up jerk chicken, my team's still an hour behind.

but only 20 minutes behind them.. so we did move up a little :)

[Lathum]

HAHAHAHAHAHA


That was awesome

[CrimsonFox]

Stop saying stuff like that ... what, are you trying to get my night-killed???? :D


Stop boldfacing stuff like that...what are you trying to get yourself nightkilled?

[CrimsonFox]

Good work, Danny + CrimsonFox :)

I feel better about some other players as well (hi, Autumn!) but will leave that alone for now until we see the night kill posted.

*highfive Danny!*

Our spidey sense wasn't crappy today. Woo!

[CrimsonFox]

Right now I am guessing the last two wolves are Pass and GE.

excellent guess.

[CrimsonFox]

As we see the first team come into view we see that we have a new leader....

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle make their way to the mat first....

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle, you are the first team to arrive...


Woooooooooooooo! ROCK On Teammate! Way to chow down! Team ColorAnimal!

[CrimsonFox]

We fade back in at the airport and see Lathum and Jackal continueing to climb down the steps.

"One last warning!!!! Do not move!!!"

Lathum stops with Jackal nearly bumping him over...

"Sorry, we can't..."

He gives Jackal one last look and they begin forward again into a hail of bullets.

They slowly fall to the ground. Both badly hurt but still moving.

Lathum tries to stand again as we see a gun barrel enter the screen.

A flash of the barrel and Lathum drops motionless.

"Not this time bitch..."

The camera pans back and we see Phil standing with gun in hand...

Lathum and Jackal have been eliminated from the Race.

Both have been eliminated completely from the game now as they are out of both halves.


This show has definitely jumped the shark. I'm turning the channel to reruns of Two and a Half Men next week.

[CrimsonFox]

We are all going to sing for you tomorrow, Pass. Didn't you read the rules?

Danny's the Bass, I'm the Baritone, and Autumn is the girly Tenor castrata.

[CrimsonFox]

And Day 6 is the time to sort out the quiet guys?

This post made me LOL

[CrimsonFox]

*highfive Danny!*

Our spidey sense wasn't crappy today. Woo!

actually i take that back. Danny and I don't even have a vote. You villagers should give yourselves highfives. good job.

[CrimsonFox]

JAG 5 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), mckerney (1640), ntndeacon (1666), GoldenEagle (1678)
mckerney 2 - Chief Rum (1594), JAG (1634)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

People that I don't think are the duke:
GE - would have used it on ntn every vote.
CR - would have used it on mckerney
Possibly mckerney. Does the duke have an if/then clause when using it?
Like can you say "if i am the top vote candidate, activate it, don't activate otherwise."?
possibly cougar. He didn't seem REALLY strident about pass but still really wanted to vote for him.

I think based on yesterday everyone ELSE could be the duke. Leaning toward packer/cougar.

[CrimsonFox]

oops...forgot to remove the EF votecount from my post but now can't go back and edit it out. *head explodes*

[CrimsonFox]

Damned that Jerked chicken looks good. *drool*

[JAG]

Awesome pictures again EF.

[mauchow]

Too bad for the rest of you villagers, I'm back! Top 5 and I get my next roll of film! errrr

[hoopsguy]

I, for one, am terrified of what we will find on mauboy1's new roll of film.

[Danny]

3 words, Danny, thong, whipped cream

[Danny]

Damn, that's four words lol

[hoopsguy]

Counting is hard :)

[PackerFanatic]

People that I don't think are the duke:
GE - would have used it on ntn every vote.
CR - would have used it on mckerney
Possibly mckerney. Does the duke have an if/then clause when using it?
Like can you say "if i am the top vote candidate, activate it, don't activate otherwise."?
possibly cougar. He didn't seem REALLY strident about pass but still really wanted to vote for him.

I think based on yesterday everyone ELSE could be the duke. Leaning toward packer/cougar.

From what I recall, you can do that, yes - and I am not the duke, nor am I a wolf. cougar has been a little too quiet, so I could see a vote for him today (especially if I am a candidate)

[cougarfreak]

I'm sticking to my guns today,, I'm going

vote pass

[Autumn]

I think you have to look at Mckerney voters strongly. If we've got two wolves left, one of them has to have been in there (and I'm talking pre-last minute shifts). Chief, GE and NTN. Pass is suspect for holding off on his vote and therefore avoiding any blame. Actually this vote count getting quoted is messed up. Anyone have the right one?

[Passacaglia]

I think you have to look at Mckerney voters strongly. If we've got two wolves left, one of them has to have been in there (and I'm talking pre-last minute shifts). Chief, GE and NTN. Pass is suspect for holding off on his vote and therefore avoiding any blame. Actually this vote count getting quoted is messed up. Anyone have the right one?

I'm pretty sure the one in CrimsonFox's most recent post is correct, except it needs a carriage return in the last line, to show that PF voted for NTN. Like this (I think):

JAG 5 - Autumn (1570), hoopsguy (1585), mckerney (1640), ntndeacon (1666), GoldenEagle (1678)
mckerney 2 - Chief Rum (1594), JAG (1634)
Passacaglia 1 - cougarfreak (1599)
ntndeacon 1 - PackerFanatic (1508)

[Chief Rum]

I think you have to look at Mckerney voters strongly. If we've got two wolves left, one of them has to have been in there (and I'm talking pre-last minute shifts). Chief, GE and NTN. Pass is suspect for holding off on his vote and therefore avoiding any blame. Actually this vote count getting quoted is messed up. Anyone have the right one?

Does a different voting count change the suspect list?

I agree with your logic, but as it stands, I don't much like our chances with where it's pointing.

If ntn is a wolf, I'll be floored because then the Day One votes that chose to put him up over me against mau make no sense whatsoever.

If GE is a wolf, he can only be the cunning, since he was scanned by a known seer who provided that information to a known villager.

The last option of your choices there--and best, I'll admit, from everyone else's perspective--is me. I can understand votes for me on that, but I can guarantee you my lynch doesn't get us a wolf.

[Autumn]

Does a different voting count change the suspect list?

Because I couldn't remember where some people ended up voting?

[Autumn]

Chief, I'm interested in what other direction you suggest we go in. You think none of the wolves other than JAG voted Mckerney yesterday? So two other wolves voted elsewhere or didn't vote?

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I'm interested in what other direction you suggest we go in. You think none of the wolves other than JAG voted Mckerney yesterday? So two other wolves voted elsewhere or didn't vote?

No, if you see what I wrote, you'll note that I agree with your logic. It would be hard to believe that no wolves voted for mckerney.

But it would require a bit of a leap for ntn and GE to be wolves, and the most likely candidate off of that list, myself, I know for a fact is not a wolf, even though the rest of you don't know that.

One possibility is that mckerney is indeed a wolf also, a possibility which has been brought up. If two wolves are up for the lynch last night, it throws out traditional logic on where the wolves would vote.

I am undecided at this point what direction to go. I still lean to fidning it hard to believe that Pass did his act and is a wolf, but with many in the game having at least one or two "good votes" (as well as bad votes), it would be foolish to give someone a pass on nothing much more than a gut call.

I still feel very certain that ntn is a villager.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn, I'll try to compile a vote record (all votes, not just final) over the next hour.

[Chief Rum]

Because I couldn't remember where some people ended up voting?

Well, I couldn't remember the final vote count either, so I figured if there were errors in the vote count you were using, the corrections might put new candidates on the list or remove current ones. That's all I was saying there.

[Autumn]

So we've got one group of suspects who aided in McKerney being a top vote getter and then either stayed there or switched late to JAG. We then have a second group of people who kind of remained out of the vote, Pass, Cougar, PackerFanatic. And then lastly we have the possibility of Mckerney being a wolf, which would require some examination to figure out what that might mean.

I think as mentioned last night Pass and GE are strong contenders for the last two wolves, but it doesn't hurt to look at the whole picture. I would guess one wolf from each group, but I suppose it's possible both either jumped in or stayed out.

[hoopsguy]

I wanted to note the wolf kills so far.

Night 1 - no kill (possible condition for day kill?)
Night 2 - CrimsonFox (seer hunting?)
Night 3 - Darth Vilus (seer found)
Day 4 - Lathum (bodyguard removed)
Night 4 - Saldana (delivered wolf, clearly trusted)
Night 5 - bhlloy (1 of 2 scanned by seer)
Night 6 - Autumn (villager with good thread actions)

Anyone else see something that doesn't quite add up with the Night 6 kill, based on the other kills?

[Autumn]

Indeed. I was noticing that myself.

[Chief Rum]

Wow, very good point hoops.

[Chief Rum]

That would certainly settle my mckerney voters are all villagers issue.

[Passacaglia]

That would certainly settle my mckerney voters are all villagers issue.

Maybe what I posted isn't right after all then, since the only mckerney voters were you and JAG.

[Autumn]

No, Pass, we're just discussing NTN and GE as Mckerney voters also, who made a late move to JAG.

[Passacaglia]

Oh okay, gotcha.

[ntndeacon]

One possibility is that mckerney is indeed a wolf also, a possibility which has been brought up. If two wolves are up for the lynch last night, it throws out traditional logic on where the wolves would vote.


Of course if mckerney is a wolf, then those of us with the very late swing have to be looked at more suspiciously.

[Chief Rum]

Of course if mckerney is a wolf, then those of us with the very late swing have to be looked at more suspiciously.

Well, except that the other candidate was a wolf. So we don't really know what the wolves are thinking. I would think if two wolves were up, the wolves would act to protect the cunning (especially if already scanned), and might encourage the brutal wolf to fall on the sword and take out a villager.

If what hoops is suggesting is true, we know who the cunning is and he wasn't a candidate last night. We know JAG was a vanilla wolf. If mckerney is the third wolf, he would have been the brutal, and it doesn't make sense that the wolves would move a two wolf vote toward JAG, the vanilla wolf, over mckerney, the hypothetical brutal.

So if hoops is right, I suspect mckerney is indeed a villager.

[Autumn]

In general that makes sense, Chief, but at this point in the game with the seer and bodyguard gone, I'm not sure it benefits the wolves to get the brutal lynched now, versus later. Better to hold on to the brutal to endgame. Or at the very least, doesn't make a particular difference.

I tend to not think McK is a wolf also, though. That's why I didn't vote him, and the way voting went down only made me think that more so.

[hoopsguy]

1438 - Autumn votes mckerney 1-0
1508 - PF votes NTN 1-1 mck/NTN
1516 - Hoops votes Pass 1-1-1 mck/NTN/Pass
1547 - Autumn unvotes mckerney 1-1 NTN/Pass
1570 - Autumn votes JAG 1-1-1 NTN/Pass/JAG
1585 - Hoops unvotes Pass, votes JAG 2-1 JAG over NTN
1591 - NTN votes JAG 3-1 JAG over NTN
1594 - Chief votes mckerney 3-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck
1599 - Cougar votes Pass 3-1-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck/Pass
1606 - GE votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1618 - NTN unvotes JAG, votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1632 - mck votes Pass 3-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1634 - JAG votes mckerney 4-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1666 - NTN unvotes mck, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1678 - GE unvotes mck, votes JAG 5-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass

[Autumn]

Lots of interesting things in that, thanks Hoops.

[cougarfreak]

Well, except that the other candidate was a wolf. So we don't really know what the wolves are thinking. I would think if two wolves were up, the wolves would act to protect the cunning (especially if already scanned), and might encourage the brutal wolf to fall on the sword and take out a villager.

If what hoops is suggesting is true, we know who the cunning is and he wasn't a candidate last night. We know JAG was a vanilla wolf. If mckerney is the third wolf, he would have been the brutal, and it doesn't make sense that the wolves would move a two wolf vote toward JAG, the vanilla wolf, over mckerney, the hypothetical brutal.

So if hoops is right, I suspect mckerney is indeed a villager.

So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?

[hoopsguy]

There is that vote log, and there was also being there as last night was sorting itself out. The wolves wanted mckerney lynched, and I don't see any way that they wanted to give up the brutal in that position instead of a "normal" wolf. A day later, maybe, but not last night. Last night they wanted to off a villager and then dictate to us with 3 wolves (including brutal) among 8 players today.

I won't be voting mckerney today and I won't be voting him tomorrow on the off chance that we are both around.

[Chief Rum]

So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?

Correct, that's his theory, and considering our suspicions, it kinda meshes with things. Looking at yesterday's vote history suggests this as well.

[hoopsguy]

So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?

I think the chances are pretty good, cougar. The wolf kills have been pretty by the numbers: seer, bodyguard, cleared players.

Last night, they didn't take a cleared player. They took a player who had made strong villager plays in the thread yesterday but was not seer scanned like GE.

So I'm wondering why they deviated from their pattern.

[Autumn]

I think we have to assume Mckerney's good. JAG certainly seemed to be holding on to his vote all day, presumably to vote whereever he needed to, to get out of trouble. So I think his vote on McK helps clear McK. JAG could have voted Pass there.

Which doesn't help Pass out.

[Chief Rum]

I can see what you're saying re: the brutal, hoops, but I really think if it comes to a choice between two wolves, the wolves will always push the brutal to use that extra kill as soon as possible. One less villager means one less vote to combat, which at end game might be more important than having one more face to hide behind.

In any case, I am with you. I am not looking to vote mckerney anytime soon.

[Autumn]

1438 - Autumn votes mckerney 1-0
1508 - PF votes NTN 1-1 mck/NTN
1516 - Hoops votes Pass 1-1-1 mck/NTN/Pass
1547 - Autumn unvotes mckerney 1-1 NTN/Pass
1570 - Autumn votes JAG 1-1-1 NTN/Pass/JAG
1585 - Hoops unvotes Pass, votes JAG 2-1 JAG over NTN
1591 - NTN votes JAG 3-1 JAG over NTN
1594 - Chief votes mckerney 3-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck
1599 - Cougar votes Pass 3-1-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck/Pass
1606 - GE votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1618 - NTN unvotes JAG, votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1632 - mck votes Pass 3-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1634 - JAG votes mckerney 4-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1666 - NTN unvotes mck, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1678 - GE unvotes mck, votes JAG 5-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass

I want to bump this up to the current page. NTN puts JAG up 3-1 over himself early on. A self defense vote, but presumably he could have voted someone else that early and set up another candidate if he was a wolf. Chief and Cougar then add new candidates, rather than vote NTN or JAG. Perhaps of interest. GE chooses Mckerney on his vote over Pass or NTN or JAG.

[ntndeacon]

I want to bump this up to the current page. NTN puts JAG up 3-1 over himself early on. A self defense vote, but presumably he could have voted someone else that early and set up another candidate if he was a wolf. Chief and Cougar then add new candidates, rather than vote NTN or JAG. Perhaps of interest. GE chooses Mckerney on his vote over Pass or NTN or JAG.

One thing to note on GE's vote is that it happens 4 minutes after I talk about wanting to vote for mckerney still.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, but if NTN doesn't move late do you still think GE moves behind him?

I give NTN much more credit for the success we had last night than I do GE at this point. Not a "free pass" level of trust, but it would take some work to talk me into voting for him.

[cougarfreak]

Correct, that's his theory, and considering our suspicions, it kinda meshes with things. Looking at yesterday's vote history suggests this as well.

Ok, that makes some sense. Thanks.

[ntndeacon]

Vote Pass

[Chief Rum]

Yep, but if NTN doesn't move late do you still think GE moves behind him?

I give NTN much more credit for the success we had last night than I do GE at this point. Not a "free pass" level of trust, but it would take some work to talk me into voting for him.

It's about time I got some peeps on my side on ntn. IMO, he has proven it well before this. FYI, GE has been gunning for NTN all game, if you recall.

[Chief Rum]

Vote Pass

Do we assume the theory and go after the mysterious last brutal wolf, or do we check the theory today?

I lean toward the latter.

[ntndeacon]

Hey if we want to go after the cunning, I am down with that. we need to decide quickly though as I won't be available to change after 3:20 or so as I head to hopefully take my friends money

[Chief Rum]

Well, let's test it. Your vote is on Pass. I'll put mine on GE. We'll see what people want to do.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[mckerney]

I had wanted to vote for him a few days ago, I have no problem doing it now with others on board.

Vote Golden Eagle

[GoldenEagle]

Do you guys really want to bark up this tree? You had the seer clear me to a known villager. Nevermind the fact that I am vanilla villager, but the percentage play is terrible.

[Autumn]

How is it a bad percentage play. There are 8 people left, I believe, and one of this is almost certainly the cunning wolf. Several of those 8 are very, very unlikely to be wolves. If we had started the game suggesting that the seer's teammate would be the cunning, yes that would be a poor percentage, but we're looking at different statistics at this point.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not dead set on doing this play - there is definitely risk in it.

If I was pretty sure on the other wolf I would push hard for taking out the other wolf first. As it stands, I'm waffling a bit on what I think is the best play.

A bad lynch, no matter who it is, gives control back to the wolves in a game with six players and a brutal wolf.

[GoldenEagle]

How is it a bad percentage play. There are 8 people left, I believe, and one of this is almost certainly the cunning wolf. Several of those 8 are very, very unlikely to be wolves. If we had started the game suggesting that the seer's teammate would be the cunning, yes that would be a poor percentage, but we're looking at different statistics at this point.

The role has a 50% chance of being in the game. Twenty people started the game, meaning there is 2.5% chance any of us is the cunning wolf. In addition, I have been scanned and cleared. Lets take that percentage to about 1.5% due to that. It is just not a good decision.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not dead set on doing this play - there is definitely risk in it.

If I was pretty sure on the other wolf I would push hard for taking out the other wolf first. As it stands, I'm waffling a bit on what I think is the best play.

A bad lynch, no matter who it is, gives control back to the wolves in a game with six players and a brutal wolf.

Problem is, without a for sure other wolf, I don't know how we can ignore this or let it be. Don't we have to explore this?

[Autumn]

What makes you think there's a 50% chance?

And 12 of those people are dead, so clearly they were not the cunning. Therefore, if there is a cunning, there is a 12.5% chance that it was you. Yes, there's less chance that you're a wolf, by sheer numbers, than anyone else, but based on voting records there's a much greater chance than average that you are one.

[Autumn]

Problem is, without a for sure other wolf, I don't know how we can ignore this or let it be. Don't we have to explore this?

No, I don't think you have to explore it. If the wolves were clever, they could have left GE alive just for this reason.

I think you guys should vote purely on wolfiness and voting records today. GE is a primate candidate because of that, I think, and to a lesser extent because of the night kill.

[cougarfreak]

I will.stick with pass for now, but I see how the GE thing makes some sense. I do not want a tie, won't that give the wolf group a nightkill without us having a shot at lynching a wolf?

[ntndeacon]

I will.stick with pass for now, but I see how the GE thing makes some sense. I do not want a tie, won't that give the wolf group a nightkill without us having a shot at lynching a wolf?

I don't think so. I thought ALL night activities would not happen...including a night kill.

[Autumn]

Prime candidate, not primate. Sorry GE, not trying to call you an ape ;-)

[Chief Rum]

No, I don't think you have to explore it. If the wolves were clever, they could have left GE alive just for this reason.

I think you guys should vote purely on wolfiness and voting records today. GE is a primate candidate because of that, I think, and to a lesser extent because of the night kill.

I am comfortable with this. Voting records have reflected some doubt about GE's allegiance, and he has skated by because of the scan. This makes sense to me. Unless a better analysis comes along, I am comfortable with GE as a candidate today, whether prime or primate.

[Autumn]

If GE was good, then we have to assume either Chief is a wolf, or none of the wolves voted for McKerney. That would be odd, but certainly possible. In which case, Pass who abstained from voting, possibly holding onto his vote for a possible save, looks bad, as does Cougar and PF, who manage to not vote JAG but not not vote a presumed villager in Mckerney. In which case, who looks worse, PF who votes NTN very early and doesn't get any traction, or Cougar who adds Pass to the list when there's already two other non-JAG options? Cougar and Pass have to be the most unlikely wolf pairing based on that.

[Danny]

Pass and GE, book it!

[GoldenEagle]

Pass and GE, book it!

Want to place a bet? ;)

[Danny]

Let's also not forget pass wanted bh lynched earlier which would have helped clear ge.

That said, we should not go for the cunning first, absolutely no way. A brutal kill does not hurt us at all, and in case were wrong and say pass is the cunning, we would then be saving ourselves from lynching ge al together. I think voting for ge is a bad move today (even though. Ithink he's a wolf)

[PackerFanatic]

Had I been around last night, I would have moved my NTN vote, since it never went anywhere. I will follow the GE train of thought for now. I really need to do a better job of analysis myself, heh...

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Autumn]

164 Autumn votes JAG 1-0
169 PF votes Mauboy 1-1 JAG/Mau
170 Lathum votes Rum 1-1-1 JAG/Mau/Rum
172 Mau votes Rum 2-1-1 Rum over JAG/Mau
175 Danny votes JAG 2-2-1 Rum/JAG over Mau
178 JAG votes Autumn 2-2-1-1 Rum/JAG over Mau/Autumn
181 bhl votes Mau 2-2-2-1 Rum/JAG/Mau over Autumn
* 182 MartinD (wolf) post about vote concentration early, usually more spread out *
185 MartinD votes Mau 3-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
186 Rum votes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
187 mck votes Mau 5-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
189 Rum unvotes Mau 4-2-2-1 Mau over Rum/JAG over Autumn
193 Danny unvotes JAG, votes NTN 4-2-1-1-1 Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG/NTN
194 Jackal votes NTN 4-2-2-1-1 Mau over Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
200 Hoops votes NTN 4-3-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
205 Zinto votes Chief 4-3-3-1-1 Mau over NTN/Rum over Autumn/JAG
206 NTN votes Chief 4-4-3-1-1 Mau/Rum over NTN over Autumn/JAG
212 Pass votes NTN 4-4-4-1-1 Mau/Rum/NTN over Autumn/JAG
213 Chief votes NTN 5-4-4-1-1 NTN over Mau/Rum over Autumn/JAG
219 Crimson votes Mau 5-5-4-1-1 NTN/Mau over Rum over Autumn/JAG
222 NTN unvotes Chief, votes Mau 6-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
224 - DV votes Mau. 7-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
226 - Cougar votes Mau 8-5-3-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
234 - Mau unvotes Chief, votes NTN 8-6-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
235 - GE votes NTN, 8-7-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
237 - Saldana votes NTN, 8-8-2-1-1 Mau/NTN over Rum over Autumn/JAG
240 - Lathum unvotes Rum, votes NTN 9-8-1-1-1 NTN over Mau over Autumn/JAG/Rum
242 - Chief unvotes NTN, votes Mau 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/JAG/Rum
* 251 - Mauboy's "if only I could see the future" post with 1 hour 40 minutes until lynch deadline *
258 - Autumn unvotes JAG, votes Mau 10-8-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum
* 262 - I ask if people missed post #251, why no one is reacting to this. 1 hour 10 minutes until lynch deadline *
264 - NTN unvotes Mau, votes JAG 9-8-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG
277 - Danny unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-7-1-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Autumn/Rum/JAG/Crimson
279 - Mau unvotes NTN, votes Crimson 9-6-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/JAG
280 - Rum unvotes Mau, votes JAG 8-6-2-2-1-1 Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
290 - Autumn unvotes Mau 7-6-2-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over Crimson/JAG over Autumn/Rum
291 - Autumn votes JAG 7-6-3-2-1-1- Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum
301 - Saldana unvotes NTN, votes MartinD 7-5-3-2-1-1-1 Mau over NTN over JAG over Crimson over Autumn/Rum/MartinD
* 301 is the post where Saldana reveals that MartinD forwarded his PM with info on being a wolf. 25 minutes before deadline. *
304 - Danny changes vote to MartinD
305 - Autumn changes vote to MartinD
315 - mck changes vote to MartinD
318 - PF changes vote to MartinD
322 - DV changes vote to MartinD
327 - Cougar changes vote to MartinD
330 - Mau changes vote to MartinD
337 - NTN changes vote to MartinD
340 - Lathum changes vote to MartinD

Okay, not sure if this is helpful, but wanted to go back and add the color here. I didn't bother coloring the end, and gave up on coloring the vote count.

[Danny]

Want to place a bet? ;)

You're right, I could very well be wrong on you, and that's why votes for you are bad votes. There is no advantage to lynching the brutal last and voting for someone who could only be the cunning is a bad move.

[PackerFanatic]

That's a good point Danny made while I was posting...gah, darn these end-game scenarios.

UNVOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[GoldenEagle]

Can someone explain how my voting record is so suspicious?

The switch to JAG late yesterday does look fishy, but I did it on the premises that Pass could come in and create a tie.

[Chief Rum]

Can someone explain how my voting record is so suspicious?

The switch to JAG late yesterday does look fishy, but I did it on the premises that Pass could come in and create a tie.

Off the top of my head, you also pushed up mckerney (admittedly on top of mine) yesterday when JAG was still clearly in the lead, and moved mckerney within one.

And your endless pursuit of ntndeacon has been fishy to me all game. I would have to take a look at the rest of your votes to see where they sit, but I don't recall some great vote by you at the moment.

[GoldenEagle]

Off the top of my head, you also pushed up mckerney (admittedly on top of mine) yesterday when JAG was still clearly in the lead, and moved mckerney within one.

And your endless pursuit of ntndeacon has been fishy to me all game. I would have to take a look at the rest of your votes to see where they sit, but I don't recall some great vote by you at the moment.

I pushed for ntn because it was a vote for information. I still think there is a good chance he is a wolf My idea was simple. If ntn came back as a wolf, it cleared pass. If not, then pass is likely a wolf. You also have to consider that JAG was very defensive on ntn yesterday.

Mckerney's day 1 move right before mau reveled as the seer is what got my attention. It would not surprise if that was planned. If I recall correctly, mau was starting to pull away with the votes.

I will be around all afternoon to answer questions.

[EagleFan]

As you prepare for the next leg of the race the teams all congregate in a meeting room at the hotel where everyone is staying. The netwrok has called everyone together hoping to keep everyone is as good of a mood as possible after the recent events involving Lathum and The Jackal (they try to avoid any other homicidal tendencies).

"We wanted to help everyone relax by offering a movie night. This way everyone can forget about the game for a while."

"We would like to let you view a world premier of a movie which we will be broadcasting after the race is over. It is about a hero from the mountains. He was a miner that was stricken down in the prime of his life. There has been much controversy about him since his death and some view him as a hero but others see him in a less than favorable light."

"We would like to present you with the premier of Bull Moose Special."

[EagleFan]

Sorry, was bored at work. :)

Just a reminder that the results will be posted late tonight.

[Autumn]

lol

[Passacaglia]

Let's also not forget pass wanted bh lynched earlier which would have helped clear ge.


I don't really know what you're trying to say about me, but to clarify -- I never said I wanted bhlloy lynched. In fact, I argued that he was not likely to be the cunning, since if he were, he wouldn't have killed DV.

[Danny]

You scared me ef. The page was loading on my phone and my phone and first thing I read was bull moose special and I thought we were going to have a dead villager

[Passacaglia]

I guess that's more denying, rather than clarifying.

[Danny]

I might be remembering that wrong then. Doesn't change my feelings on you though since it has to do with your relation to ge and not you individually.

[Passacaglia]

I might be remembering that wrong then. Doesn't change my feelings on you though since it has to do with your relation to ge and not you individually.

That's cool, I'm not really trying to sway opinions, I'm just correcting misinformation.

[MartinD]

As you prepare for the next leg of the race the teams all congregate in a meeting room at the hotel where everyone is staying. The netwrok has called everyone together hoping to keep everyone is as good of a mood as possible after the recent events involving Lathum and The Jackal (they try to avoid any other homicidal tendencies).

"We wanted to help everyone relax by offering a movie night. This way everyone can forget about the game for a while."

"We would like to let you view a world premier of a movie which we will be broadcasting after the race is over. It is about a hero from the mountains. He was a miner that was stricken down in the prime of his life. There has been much controversy about him since his death and some view him as a hero but others see him in a less than favorable light."

"We would like to present you with the premier of Bull Moose Special."

:lol:

[Lathum]

lol

[Chief Rum]

The WTF moment on the Bull Moose Special was, in retrospect, just an awesomely hilarious moment.

[Coffee Warlord]

Just wait till the next leg. A mystical being riding a flying yak will be awaiting your arrival, bearing gifts of coffee and ham.

[mckerney]

Mckerney's day 1 move right before mau reveled as the seer is what got my attention. It would not surprise if that was planned. If I recall correctly, mau was starting to pull away with the votes.

What day one move are you talking about? Prior to moving my vote to MartinD the only move I made was to put the 5th vote on mau, which I thought was going to be the 4th vote on him due to Chief Rum and I posting votes at the same time. Also, my vote was 4 hours before mauboy dropped his, "It only I could see the future," line I'm curious how you consider that, "right before," and how that draws much attention from you.

[GoldenEagle]

What day one move are you talking about? Prior to moving my vote to MartinD the only move I made was to put the 5th vote on mau, which I thought was going to be the 4th vote on him due to Chief Rum and I posting votes at the same time. Also, my vote was 4 hours before mauboy dropped his, "It only I could see the future," line I'm curious how you consider that, "right before," and how that draws much attention from you.

I am sure it was pre-mediated and conditional. Mau said something to the effect of if I am still leading, I will claim to be the seer. Make sure to put your votes on me so that you can have a decent spot to hide on.

[CrimsonFox]

I wanted to note the wolf kills so far.

Night 1 - no kill (possible condition for day kill?)
Night 2 - CrimsonFox (seer hunting?)
Night 3 - Darth Vilus (seer found)
Day 4 - Lathum (bodyguard removed)
Night 4 - Saldana (delivered wolf, clearly trusted)
Night 5 - bhlloy (1 of 2 scanned by seer)
Night 6 - Autumn (villager with good thread actions)

Anyone else see something that doesn't quite add up with the Night 6 kill, based on the other kills?

What you mean that Autumn was still an unknown but GOlden Eagle was a SCAN! Yes I noticed that and you can add that to the five other reasons to still suspect him.

[hoopsguy]

I tend to agree with what Danny posted - lynching GE today isn't the right move even if it sure feels like he is a wolf.

One thing that struck me on a re-read of yesterday was the lack of conversation between Chief Rum and JAG, even though it appears they were in the thread at the same time. When I'm a wolf, that is something I try to avoid doing ... forgetting to talk to my fellow wolves in thread, since I would presumably be interacting with them as a villager (don't know anyone's allegiance).

That, coupled with some of the other concerns re: Chief in terms of voting record has me putting him considerably lower than what I've heard from the group so far.

He has been a very good race teammate, but that doesn't matter to me all that much when it comes to his villager/wolf possibilities.

[CrimsonFox]

Remember yesterday when I said I came to the conclusion to vote for people that were quiet until you tell them they are quiet and then they talk? Well I was speaking of GE as well. Was quiet until I pointed out he was quiet, then he was all chatters (both ingame and privately). And the spidey sense about him has never stopped tingling. Granted he does eat a lot. That's the only thing going for him. BUt his voting and answers regarding why he votes them seem textbook wolf answer 101.

And today I have my doubts that Pass is a wolf. I think Chief Rum is a wolf, except that I looked back at day 1/2 and Chief's voting record is good there. BUT on day one anything can happen and he knows that. It is very easy to throw a vote on a wolf that does not stick.

The other is cougarfreak. Can't figure him out and had my suspicions.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, if you're still reading, what's your take on Pass?

I asked this question almost at same time as JAG did ... it is a point yesterday when the vote was 1-1 between NTN and Pass.

Just looking for stuff that suggests where JAG was at in relation to Chief Rum and Pass specifically.

[CrimsonFox]

But hoops, when you bring someone up in conversation, you are basically saying "Vote for that person". I think that clears pass more than implicates him.

[hoopsguy]

Not much choice, but at least it's someone I haven't felt that sure of.

Vote mckerney

And this was a chance for JAG to vote for Pass but instead he put the vote on mckerney.

Vote at the time was 3-2-2-1 with mckerney leading JAG/Pass and NTN trailing.

If he had voted Pass, he would have created a two way tie in front of him, but Pass had not yet voted so maybe he feared that he didn't have the horses to help him escape and wanted to try to push the leader further ahead. Chief wasn't around last night as the deadline approached, for what it is worth. I remember lamenting that as we saw the deadline approaching and it looked like JAG might get off the hook.

[hoopsguy]

But hoops, when you bring someone up in conversation, you are basically saying "Vote for that person". I think that clears pass more than implicates him.

Agreed - that is how I read it in a vacuum as well. But I'm trying to find all the tangible stuff from JAG and post it for others to review as well.

[CrimsonFox]

And this was a chance for JAG to vote for Pass but instead he put the vote on mckerney.

Vote at the time was 3-2-2-1 with mckerney leading JAG/Pass and NTN trailing.

If he had voted Pass, he would have created a two way tie in front of him, but Pass had not yet voted so maybe he feared that he didn't have the horses to help him escape and wanted to try to push the leader further ahead. Chief wasn't around last night as the deadline approached, for what it is worth. I remember lamenting that as we saw the deadline approaching and it looked like JAG might get off the hook.


I'm not even sure why ntn is a suspect anymore. Last night, if ntn didn't switch this game would be over.

I think anyone who looks at ntn now is undoubtedly a wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

Then again, The Jackal is online now. He's probably still a wolf somehow. LIke WOlf Ghost or something.

[hoopsguy]

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

Another comment yesterday related to CR. Again, these are relatively small things I've been finding and I'm hoping others can provide their feedback (trend or random?) on the stuff I'm pulling.

[hoopsguy]

I won't argue the ntn thing as I put him up high in trust, but I'm taking up for mckerney, who I put 6th out of 9 players? That's misrepresenting what I posted. As for ntn, I've laid out my reasoning why I think he's ok, meanwhile you've voted him 3 of 5 days and I still don't understand what your case is against him. Can you please enlighten me?

Here is JAG replying to GoldenEagle, who suggested JAG was covering for mckerney and NTN.

Not a full-blown reason not to vote for GE here, but a small notch in his favor in my mind.

[Chief Rum]

Well, I have already stated that yesterday's vote did me no good as a villager. I said I actually looked worse than the other two mckerney voters we were looking at this morning (GE & ntn).

As you surmised hoops, I wasn't around at deadline. I actually left shortly after placing my vote, and wasn't able to check in until well after the deadline.

So I don't mind the pressure; I understand it. But fact of the matter is, I'm a villager. Lynching me does no good.

Can someone explain to me why it's a bad idea to lynch the cunning? I'm not getting the reasoning for that. If we think we have a wolf, let's lynch him and be done with it. I at least can understand the village avoiding the brutal, since you don't want to do the 2-for-1 tradeoff that happens with a brutla wolf lynch.

To both of you, CF and hoops, I do recommend you look at Day One. CF, you say it's easy to make a good Day One vote, because it's Day One, but I did some things there that shouldn't just be ignored. My first mau vote came in a surprise block of votes for him. When I saw what happened, I immediately unvoted him to consider that run. That actually puts a spotlight on me (and it has indeed, with how it has been questioned). A wolf doesn't make that move.

A wolf also doesn't jump around as much as I did on Day One, at least not a smart one. Standout Day One votes and moving around a lot are bad ideas for a wolf trying to hide amongst the crowd.

Finally, and hoops, you yourself noted this in your vote rundown of that day, when mau vsersus ntn was coming to a head and they were even, I was on ntn and switched to mau. If ntn is a villager--a cause I have been championing most of the game now and which seems to finally be accepted by most--then I just switched off of ntn, on whom I had a perfectly defensible Day One vote, to move mau up above him.

All that said, I am well aware my voting record is a mixed bag.

As for talking with JAG, hoops, that's a bit of a reach, although I see what you're saying. I didn't see what you guys did on JAG. He was making logically sound arguments and didn't come off wolfish to me. He didn't have good clearing vote or anything, but he also didn't have a really bad one. I didn't really feel like there was anything I needed to sya to him at that point.

I talk much more to people who disagree with me in WW games than I do to ones who agree with me.

[hoopsguy]

Alright, I have some time before work and then my time the rest of the day will be on and off. I understand I'll be under the microscope today, so I'm going to put out all my thoughts on the people left for the sake of transparency so people know where I stand on things. I am going to assume there are three wolves left worst-case scenario and so we're at 7-3, which means we can only afford one more bad lynch barring some unforeseen mechanic. Based on where I have people trusted (CR+ntn much higher than hoops+Pass), I am going to assume we had three villagers on the block D4 but possibly not D5. So taking a look at those left, most to least trusted:

CR: Odd voting on D1, bad vote on Danny D5 (I know, those in glass houses...), but his reasoning on ntn yesterday was sound and mau put vote #2 on him D1. That just seems way out there for a wolf on wolf move.

ntn: D1 his vote switch from CR (who I feel pretty sure about as good) to mau looks very good, and had a D5 vote on Pass. He's been quiet but what else is new? I can't see why I'd vote for him.

PF: Vote #1 on mau D1, again that seems pretty out there for a wolf on wolf move, had a vote on hoops D5. Otherwise has been quiet, but little reason to suspect him.

cougarfreak: Had a big vote on mau D1 and voted for Pass D5. Like PF, he's been pretty quiet and at this point I don't see myself looking here.

GE: His voting has been terrible (I don't like his crusade against ntn, the votes against ntn D1, D4, and D5 seem poorly reasoned, and the D5 switch to Danny looks bad also). However since we have confirmation he's scanned good, I don't see this as a good percentage play.

mckerney: Had a reasonably good vote on mau D1 though it looks better because of the number of people that jumped on him at the same time. The D5 vote on Danny brings him down as well as being way under the radar. He's been a good partner though.

hoops: His voting record is poor (ntn D1, known villagers D4+D5). On the other hand, he and CR have had, IMO, the most accurate breakdown of what's been going on thus far. I've never played with hoops as wolf and I know he's a good one, so the fact he isn't lower is mostly based on vibe and that we're mostly seeing things the same way.

Pass: The D1 vote isn't too hot, the D5 vote doesn't seem so bad though. His stuff with Chief yesterday was annoying and distracting, but also came across as Pass being Pass so I tried to ignore it. No great trust for him at the moment, I will say it seems unlikely both he and hoops would be wolves with Pass' willingness to jump on hoops yesterday.

Autumn: Assuming I'm not voting in self-defense, this is where I'm leaning for my vote today. His D1 will obviously look worse to me than anyone else, but I also don't like the switch to mau after he basically came out as 'seer', I don't understand it. I don't like that he's been trying to make a case for CR as wolf because of him taking back the vote on mau and leaving out the best evidence for CR being cleared in mau putting vote #2 on Chief. I haven't poured over his previous posts but I think he was making a case for ntn which I don't think is realistic. Now knowing that Danny is a villager, I don't like how he jumped on my idea of saying he thought Danny was most suspicious for most of the day D4 then gave a reason why he thought Danny was ok, and then immediately voted Danny D5. Honestly, the best thing I can say about Autumn thus far is that he didn't come out and vote me right away today when as a wolf, it would've seemed like the obvious set-up after the past couple days.

So that's where I stand with things. I think it's most likely we'll find 2 if not 3 wolves on the bottom four people I listed.


These things are always tricky to do when you are a wolf because you don't want them scrutinized too heavily after you are busted. What I normally try to do, and I expect he did as well, is be pretty straight with his reviews on people but play with the order a little bit to steer us wrong. Clearly having Autumn as last was bad, and I would like to think that having me as 3rd to last was clearly bad to most of the people reading this now.

So the question I have here is would he list three non-wolves at the bottom (clearing Pass) and a wolf at the top (CR)? That shows quite a bit of courage to try and pull off.

This also reminds me that I should take a look at the Day 4 vote since he strongly suggests that there were only villagers in it ...

[Chief Rum]

Another comment yesterday related to CR. Again, these are relatively small things I've been finding and I'm hoping others can provide their feedback (trend or random?) on the stuff I'm pulling.

I would imagine JAG was doing what most good wolves will do and play it straight when he can, to come off as honest and real as possible. And he's right, there wasn't all that much evidence for me; it was at best conflicting. It's ironic in that my decision not to vote for him then provides the "good evidence" JAG was asking for.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I'm not stuck on you as a candidate at this point - I'm just in serious JAG post analysis and kind of typing free-form what my reactions are right now. I'm certainly happy to discuss them, but for the most part I'm interpreting what he typed ... as opposed to digging into your posts where there is room for clarification on what was meant in the posts.

If you think this is a good train of thought, but don't like the conclusions being drawn, I would invite you to go down the same path with me and show me some posts, voting records, whatever that I'm missing that seem important to you.

[hoopsguy]

As of post 1369:

Danny 6 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342), GoldenEagle (1362), Chief Rum (1369)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 3 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293), bhlloy (1358)

Day 5 vote (as I see it):

Danny 6 - villager, wolf, villager, pretty sure villager, ???, ???
Hoops 3 - villager, ???, hedging towards villager
Pass 3 - hedging towards villager, hedging towards villager, villager

If we did have 3 villagers on the block, then why would GE swing his vote late in this one to draw attention? I realize I'm the one creating a lot of heat on GE by questioning his clear, but I want to look at this as completely as possible. A late switch in a 3 villager race doesn't provide much value for them in terms of werewolf. I have no idea if there were any race considerations but kind of doubt it.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I'm not stuck on you as a candidate at this point - I'm just in serious JAG post analysis and kind of typing free-form what my reactions are right now. I'm certainly happy to discuss them, but for the most part I'm interpreting what he typed ... as opposed to digging into your posts where there is room for clarification on what was meant in the posts.

If you think this is a good train of thought, but don't like the conclusions being drawn, I would invite you to go down the same path with me and show me some posts, voting records, whatever that I'm missing that seem important to you.

I appreciate it, hoops, but I'm not going to have much time for that. My best option right now is to read and react and provide what insight I can, and hope that anyone interested in me as a wolf will come to the conclusion I am the villager I say I am.

You are finding what I recall from the past day, after JAG was challenged to speak more, and that's that he was surprisingly positive on me. I even thought he was a little too positive given the conflicting evidence for and against my allegiance, but I certainly welcomed it, considering I was under a good deal of pressure from Pass and then Autumn, and was consistently mentioned as a wolf candidate by several players.

If anything, I would say he was too consistently positive of me for me to be a wolf with him. If I were, I would think he would keep his comments on me muted, nothing much positive or negative, because the saw cuts both ways, whichever way you go.

[hoopsguy]

You're making good points here. Probably not relevant for today's vote, but important later on.

Here is Pass talking with Danny, supporting his ideas that Chief was not a good candidate based on Day 1 voting stuff.

[CrimsonFox]

TL;DR ;)

[hoopsguy]

Heh...typical hardly mention hoops all day and then make a run while I went to go work out.

Look, I don't know hoops' allegiance. He may very well be a wolf. But just from the conversations I have had with him, he doesn't vibe like a wolf. I have seen a lot of mentions about him not being around as much and that being suspicious, but it's the truth that he's busy as heck at work. He's told me that in PMs, too, and hoops sn't the kind of guy to lie a out RL stuff to hide as a wolf. Like I said, he could very well be a wolf, but if the only reason some have is that he isn't around, u guys are barking up the wrong tree.

Plus, Pass has exhibited about as poor logical and argumentative skills in this game as I have ever seen in a player in a single game. If he took me to a sunrise and told me the sun exists, I am not sure I would buy it right now; that's how much cred he has. So following him onto hoops, I can't see the logic there.

As for the current other candidates, whatever his other qualities, I don't think Pass plays this way as a wolf. I have already pointed out how nutty it would be to see ntn as a wolf with the way Day 1 went. And I have had a good vibe from Danny all game. None of these choices really work for me, although Danny is very good as a wild hiding as a villager, and his actions, if not his words, have struck me as more suspicious than the other candidates.

It's just for vibe reasons, but my gut says to look closer at PF (who just did a driveby vote), cougar has seemed aittle off, and GE isn't as active as I recall him being.

Chief post on Day 5 voting candidates pretty late in day. Again, just pulling stuff now so it is easier to find for later review than pulling all of these has been over the last hour. I'm going to try and work through Days 4 and 5.

[hoopsguy]

TL;DR ;)

I suspect both Chief and I have been on receiving end of this a bunch of times :)

[hoopsguy]

Eh, I'm going to drop the post review for a little while here. I want to take a look at what I think was the inflection point in the vote yesterday.

1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass

At this point, the votes were lined up like this:
mckerney - Chief, GE, NTN, GE
JAG - Autumn, Hoops, mckerney
NTN - PF
Pass - Cougar

No vote - Pass

[hoopsguy]

Note - post #1874 should have Chief, GE, NTN, and JAG (not GE twice)

There are 3 wolves at this point - brutal, cunning, and JAG

Do they want to have a 5-5 standoff and have no lynch + no night actions? Well, villagers have no night actions and if all three wolves are exposed voting to protect JAG then that is a bad day at the office for them, right?

They have to figure they are not moving the three JAG voters at this point - mckerney is self defense and Autumn and I have dug in pretty squarely.

So what do you make of the remaining players in this little melodrama from last night?

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, appear to have waited too late in the day to discuss this stuff.

And still a bunch of votes left to be cast.

[hoopsguy]

At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now.

If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game.

VOTE PASS

[Chief Rum]

I'm here. :)

Just stepped away from my desk for a sec.

Looking at the remaining votes, I have come to the conclusion that I am a villager. :D

[Chief Rum]

At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now.

If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game.

VOTE PASS

Well, if that's the way the village goes, I hope you're right about Pass, because you're wrong about me.

Why again is it a bad idea to lynch the cunning? Or is it that you don't think GE is the cunning?

[hoopsguy]

Chief, because I don't think it is a lock that GE is the cunning. And if we are wrong, then we've set ourselves up to go 4-2 against the cunning and brutal. Which means we need to guess the right wolf.

So we try for another person we think is a wolf today. If we end up with a wolf who is the cunning then we have cleared GE. Big, big win.

If we end up with a villager, then we still find ourselves 4-2 and then we look to get the cunning with our next vote rather than run into the brutal and lose the game 1-1.

[Danny]

Good vote

[Chief Rum]

Chief, because I don't think it is a lock that GE is the cunning. And if we are wrong, then we've set ourselves up to go 4-2 against the cunning and brutal. Which means we need to guess the right wolf.

So we try for another person we think is a wolf today. If we end up with a wolf who is the cunning then we have cleared GE. Big, big win.

If we end up with a villager, then we still find ourselves 4-2 and then we look to get the cunning with our next vote rather than run into the brutal and lose the game 1-1.

Either way, we're two bad votes away from done and have to spend a day looking for the cunning. I don't see the difference between doing that today or doing it Monday.

I don't think it's a lock that GE is the cunning either, but the wolves avoiding him is compelling. That combined with his not too great vote record suggests this is an area to look at.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I'm going to be sending you a PM ... want to hammer something out re: our race.

[hoopsguy]

Either way, we're two bad votes away from done and have to spend a day looking for the cunning. I don't see the difference between doing that today or doing it Monday.

I don't think it's a lock that GE is the cunning either, but the wolves avoiding him is compelling. That combined with his not too great vote record suggests this is an area to look at.

But there is no chance of him being the brutal wolf - every other remaining player in question has a chance at being two wolf roles.

We have no chance of "lucking" into the cunning with a vote on GE ... he either is or is not that role. If you asked me if he has the greatest chance of being the cunning among the remaining players I say "absolutely". If you ask me if he has the greatest chance, by a wide margin, of being a wolf I so "I'm not sure".

So I think I'm recommending the safest course, assuming we have the flexibility to miss one vote the rest of the way. Short of very hidden mechanics, I believe we do have that flexibility.

[Autumn]

No, I think Hoops has it right. There's only one wolf GE can be. If you catch the other wolf and find the cunning you've learned much more than in a normal wolf lynch.

The fact that I'm feeling pushback from Chief about this GE thing makes me wonder. Perhaps it's Chief and Pass that are the last two?

[PackerFanatic]

I wish I was as good at this game as you guys, lol...

VOTE PASS

[Chief Rum]

No, I think Hoops has it right. There's only one wolf GE can be. If you catch the other wolf and find the cunning you've learned much more than in a normal wolf lynch.

The fact that I'm feeling pushback from Chief about this GE thing makes me wonder. Perhaps it's Chief and Pass that are the last two?

The pushback is because I think we have a wolf there, and I think we're shooting in the dark going elsewhere. I think we have a good chance of GE being the cunning. While there are several candidates outside of GE who have similar levels of distrust.

IMO, I see us passing up a good chance to grab a wolf to take a shot in the dark.

hoops is saying this way is safer. Well, I guess that depends on how you view the likelihood of GE being a wolf versus being pick whatever random candidate in the crowd. I obviously have higher confidence that GE is a wolf, so I don't see hoops' direction as being the safer route. I see it as taking us away from a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Dola,

If we had stronger wolf candidates in the remaining pool , this would be different, but I don't get the sense we're any closer to really revealing a wolf outside of GE.

Heck, I don't even know exactly what the case is against Pass. It seems like he is more a target of circumstance and some not liking his approach to things as because of vote counts or suspicious actions.

[Chief Rum]

Well, okay, holding back his vote yesterday... that was the most suspicious hting I think that he has done. But he was seeing a lot of heat well before that.

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I'm going to be sending you a PM ... want to hammer something out re: our race.

I was just starting to consider that myself. I'll check my PMs.

[CrimsonFox]

While I've said suspicions against GE, I am now struck with the notion that you should look at the first 2 people who voted for GE today if GE is not a wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Isn't there only two votes on GE right now? ;)

[CrimsonFox]

There was a 3rd, which was reneged. PackerFan pulled a Chief Rum :)

[Danny]

Dola,

If we had stronger wolf candidates in the remaining pool , this would be different, but I don't get the sense we're any closer to really revealing a wolf outside of GE.

Heck, I don't even know exactly what the case is against Pass. It seems like he is more a target of circumstance and some not liking his approach to things as because of vote counts or suspicious actions.

I'm starting to think it's you and Pass and not GE.

[Danny]

CR, you're a stronger player than to be focused on a player who could only be the cunning with another wolf out there.

[mckerney]

Unvote Golden Eagle
Vote Passacaglia

There seems to be more of a consensus to go there for the lynch today, so I'm willing to go along with that.

[CrimsonFox]

At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now.

If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game.

VOTE PASS

I've thought about that. I've thought about their whole fight scene being staged. I've thought about either of them being wolves. ON the one hand Pass going after CHief to throw people off. On the other hand Chief using his patented CIrcle of Logic to make Pass blow and throw people off the track. THen I've thought of these two just being villagers with hints of stubbornness and adamantly defending their points of view. Because I CAN see a GE/Cougar possibility.

[Chief Rum]

CR, you're a stronger player than to be focused on a player who could only be the cunning with another wolf out there.

Who is the other wolf we should be inequivocably going after here, Danny. Please name someone and tell me all the evidence for them being wolves. Because I guarantee you whoever you name, I can name two others and make just as strong a case for then as you will for yours. That's the problem with this plan. Y'all are so confident you're going to pick a wolf out of the 4 or 5 likely choices, you don't even recognize the risk you're taking.

[Danny]

And GE is a much stronger candidate than those 4 or 5 you speak of? And I dont think there are 4 or 5 candidates that are equal.

Hoops has his JAG vote yesterday and should not be receiving any votes.

NTN has all of day 1 and other things in his favor

Packer has vote #1 on mauboy day 1. He is not the type of player to vote for a fellow wolf like that on day 1.

Mckerney has his day 1 Mau vote along with some things throughout along with yesterday that put him above the others.

Cougar doesn't have anything particularly good or bad in his favor.

Then you have GoldenEagle, who reading past posts, I think actually has a decent chance at being a villager.

Then you have Pass who has bad votes overall and looks awfully guilty from the way yesterday's vote went down.

Then you, CR, with some bad votes, but also some thing supporting you.

Yes, you are right, there is not a clear cut 100% candidate (well I actually think Pass is about a 90% candidate after reading him during last night's lynch), but GE is certainly not one either.

And GE is the only player with a 1/8 chance of being a wolf, every other player is a 1/4 chance.

[hoopsguy]

Lets work through it, CR.

Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today.
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE)
tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1
night kill leads to 3-1
and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose

Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill
we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf

Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses.

Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left.

I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.

[Danny]

Lets work through it, CR.

Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today.
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE)
tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1
night kill leads to 3-1
and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose

Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill
we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf

Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses.

Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left.

I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.

Yes, explained very well

[CrimsonFox]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cougarfreak]

Lets work through it, CR.

Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today.
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE)
tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1
night kill leads to 3-1
and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose

Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill
we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf

Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses.

Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left.

I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.

So, like I thought this morning, Pass is the correct play...........correct?

[hoopsguy]

cougar, I guess we'll find out when EagleFan posts the results. But a lot of people agree with your Pass vote tonight.

[GoldenEagle]

I am not convinced that Pass is a wolf. He has been playing suspiciously throughout the game. At this point, I really don't know who the wolves are. I still have some suspicion of almost every player in the game.

Voting for Pass at this point makes me look suspicious if he does come back as a wolf. If I go another direction and he comes back a villager, then I am not sure what that says either. So, essentially, I am going to be under scrunity no matter what direction I go, just like Pass last night.

So I am going to vote by my gut and what my gut has been telling me all along

VOTE NTNDEACON

[mauchow]

14 minutes to deadline for those that need it.

[CrimsonFox]

Pass - ntndeacon (1811) hoopsguy (1877) PackerFanatic (1886) mckerney (1896)
GoldenEagle - Chief RUm (1815)
ntndeacon - GoldenEagle (1905)

[GoldenEagle]

Looking forward to EF getting back. I will probably be in bed, so I will catch up in the morning.

[Passacaglia]

Oh, right, we don't get results today. Well, hopefully the duke saved our butts.

[Passacaglia]

And sorry I haven't been very involved in the game lately -- I pretty much felt like I was being attacked personally, and that basically made me not want to do anything game-related.

[cougarfreak]

I'll definitely be in bed......I'm beat from a long week.

[EagleFan]

Going to start processing the results. It'll be a few as it look like I have a lot to go through.

[EagleFan]

The Teams are underway as they all start making their way toward Frankfurt.

During the travel we see Chief Rum and hoopsguy discussing the race. It seems they have some not so good intentions for a couple other teams on the race.

"I can't wait to see CrimsonFox's face..."

"Yeah...." (laughter)

"What about Autumn, this should wipe that goofy smile off his face..."

As we see Team Reebok talking we can see that the Team Fembot isn't the only team looking to play a little dirty....

"That animal team won't know what hit them..."

[EagleFan]

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle arrive at the roabblock first. The challenge involves driving a test vehicle on a high speed course ad beating the time limit. If the player does not beat the time they must try again. If another team arrives during that time they must alternate turns if not successful.

CrimsonFox takes the challenge for his team and he does a phenominal job. He has what will end up being the fastest time of the day in the challenge.

Team Fembot arrives followed shortly by Team Reebok. It will be hoopsguy versus ntndeacon as the two teams begin the challenge.

hoopsguy seems to pick it up in training faster then ntndeacon and she takes the first run at it. She makes it the first time.

ntndeacon misses the time by just one second and must attempt a second time. He is successful and they are on their way.

[EagleFan]

JAG and mckerney arrive next and drama begins. mckerney begins to sob uncontrollably and is having flashbacks to a traumatic event from Grease.

He begs JAG to do the roadblock and he finally agrees. It takes him a couple attempts but they are finally on their way.

Shortly after they finish mauboy1 and Danny arrive. Mauboy1 does the challenge and finishes on thei first try. They have made up some time as they head for the detour.

[Chief Rum]

And sorry I haven't been very involved in the game lately -- I pretty much felt like I was being attacked personally, and that basically made me not want to do anything game-related.

Sorry for my part in that, Pass. I know I have treated you roughly. I wasn't the one who called you a dick, but I certainly said some less than nice things. I will say that my comments weren't intended to be personally insulting, but a frustrated commentary on the approach you took in arguing with me. I found it a little insulting to my intelligence that you would go to the point of semantics on my use if one word in a post a whole day before. Being that picky showed me you had no interest in a rational discourse.

But I shouldn't have let that get to me, so I apologize for reacting less agreeably to your argumentative style.

As to my comments regarding your stubborness and my impression you were unwilling to consider logical arguments, I stand by my words there as fair commentary.

[Chief Rum]

Oh yeah, and before anyone says anything, yes, I recognize I am just as guilty, if not more so, of being stubborn as Pass is.

[EagleFan]

Team ColorAnimal arrives at Drink It first, followed very shortly after by Team Fembot. Both teams make extremely quick work of the task. It seems they all have spent plently of time in a pub.

While they are drinking Team Reebok arrives at the river Main and begin looking for th next clue. We see them walk past a marker but very shortly after they decide to go back and look again and they find it. They are on their way but have lost a little time.

JAG and mckerney arrive at Drink It and mckerney is arguing with the people in the area about having to drink beer. He wants it to be an Appletini. After his tantrum JAG calms him down and they eventually decide to try the other detour and go to Find It.

While trying find it mckerney slips into a muddy embankment and begins to rant about the network paying for his dry cleaning.

Danny and mauboy1 arrive at Drink and and both down their beers in quick fashion. They have traveled very well through this leg and have made up a lot of time in all aspects of this leg, travel and event.

Back at the river Main JAG and mckerney have gone looking for a dry cleaner...

[EagleFan]

We see two teams show up near the pitstop at about the same time.

Chief Rum and hoopsguy jump from their cab and run for the pitstop....

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle do the same....

We have a foot race between them.

[EagleFan]

Then CimsonFox tumbles to the ground and GoldenEagle stops to help him back up. We hear hoopsguy and Chief Rum giggling as they continue towards the mat.

hoopsguy and Chief Rum, you are the first team to arrive.

Minutes later...

CrimsonFox and GoldenEagle, you are team number two.

Team Reebok arrives shortly after as team number three.

[EagleFan]

We see the next team running for the mat; the camera focuses and we see that it is Danny and mauboy1...

Danny and mauboy1, you are the 4th team to arrive.

[EagleFan]

Cue the sad music as JAG and mckerney run towards the mat.

As they arrive mckerny hands Phil a receipt for their cleaning and demands that the network pay up.

JAG and mckerney, you are the last team to arrive.

I am sorry to tell you but you have been eliminated from the race.

JAG is completely out of the game.

mckerney is still in the werewolf portion of the game.

[EagleFan]

After the leg of the race you meet yet again, determined to find another mole.

You first start to look at GoldenEagle but soon decide that Passacaglia must be a mole. The interogation begins and you finally notice something. A mol on Pasacaglia's face...

He confesses everything....

Passacaglia was Cindy, the cunning.

Passacaglia is now completely out of the game.

[EagleFan]

Later in the evening you happen so notice another person walking around in that familiar T-shirt. It's GoldenEagle.

GoldenEagle was a vanilla villager.

He is still in the race but has no remaining additional effort to use and their team has lost their remaining aggression as both members are now out of the WW portion of the game.

[EagleFan]

Race Standings
1st - Team Fembot
2nd - Team ColorAnimal (+0:05)
3rd - Team Reebok (+0:55)
4th - Team Six (+3:25)

[EagleFan]

When you are allowed to begin you will start at Frankfurt and travel to Niagara Falls in Canada. From there...

You have a clue to the Roadblock.
Who has fast hands and good concentration? Requires Mental and Physical.

Fast Forward (this clue will be at the location of the roadblock)...
Over the falls.
- We have secured a high tech barrell built for two.
- Get in the barrell and go over the falls.
- If you survive you may go directly to the pit stop.

You have a clue to the Detour.

Sweep it: Curl a stone into the target area. Requires physical and mental.
- Each player must curl a stone into the target area while the other player sweeps.
- Must take turns until they have each played one stone into the target area.

Follow it: Find the clue. Requires Travel and Mental.
- Using a GPS locator the team must find the clue located somewhere within the city.
- Could be quick if you can understand how to read the GPS and what it is telling you.

Pit Stop - Goat Island

[EagleFan]

If you want to attempt the fast forward include it in your writeup. Only the first team to accomplish the roadblock will get to skip the tasks.

It is a risk so it is up to you to decide if you want to risk it.

[Chief Rum]

All right, mea culpa. You guys were right and big time congrats for nabbing the cunning in Pass. I'm never trusting Pass again. Sorry for not following along; I just didn't think it was the right percentage play.

I am certain you guys will come after me now. You will be lynching a villager if you do.

The good news, though, is that you have the room to do it, thanks to getting the cunning tonight. So if you guys want to lynch me, I understand (although I'll stay argue until I am blue in the face that I am a villager).

I think I have been way off in this game. Hopefully I can bounce back in the next one.

[CrimsonFox]

Danny and Hoops, you guys are absolute geniuses.

[Danny]

Hell yeah!

[Danny]

Great job guys!

[Danny]

Oh and not sure how in the world Mau and I are still in this race, but I am glad I get to contribute in helping to find the last wolf.

[CrimsonFox]

So am I really seeing this right? Has this whole Chief vs Pass thing been just one huge fake fight between two wolves? Wow Bravo for the acting. And why take out GE now? That was odd. And I think I know why. Now we have no more points left and so hoops and CHief Rum can charge toward the finish line. Hmmmm, another Chief RUm powerplay?

And for the record Pass, I never called you a dick, but you know that. I've been observing your and Chief's heated comments toward each other as really extreme and rude and I said borderline being dickish (meaning being rude to each other). But I do understand that's in the context of the game and that you are playing each other, especially now that I know you were the cunning. Hell you were playing us as the village too and you are no doubt playing us now. And I really almost fell for it. The lucky thing was I could not do anything about it as I had no vote. As I might not have voted for you today. That was come great acting dude. I dont buy it especially since you guys were shouting tooth and nail at each other and suddenly you perceive someone calling you something and get offended? That does not add up. But that was very very shrewd. I like the aggressive wolf play.

[Danny]

So we're now 5-1

We have the duke in the game and possibly a wannabee. We're in pretty good shape at this point.

[Danny]

They killed GE because he was going to be 100% cleared

[CrimsonFox]

Wait A Fast Forward! The Rob Wannabe is using his fast forward abilitiy!

[CrimsonFox]

So that means that ntndeacon is mostlikely the Rob Wannabe considering he is the only member alive from the 3rd and 4th place teams.

[CrimsonFox]

Dear village,

Please vote Chief Rum the wolf out so we can win. His "apology" post to pass absolutely proves it to me. (on top of all his voting)

[GoldenEagle]

Well, that is just mean.

[mauchow]

We even submitted a somewhat trying to be suicidal race to the finish line.. but apparently we did the leg too well for us to die yet. LOL

[mauchow]

And HIGH FIVE DANNY! We MOVE ON!

[cougarfreak]

Kinda what I expected...

[Autumn]

Very nice. This certainly paints you darkly, Chief. And if you turn up Wolf I will feel very vindicated for having gnawed at you all game.

Sucks that we can't get out of third place. If those damn wolves hadn't offed me ... we'd have you, Fembots, we'd have you!

[hoopsguy]

Well, I've got one thing to offer on Chief's behalf.

I said in the PMs last night that I was the wannabe, and that I wanted to use the fast forward last night. Now it didn't end up getting processed, perhaps in part because we had a bunch of different PMs we sent Eagle and maybe it wasn't clear enough that we wanted to use it last night. I don't know ... I revealed this about 3.5 hours before deadline, or about the time I posted in thread telling Chief to check his PMs.

So if Chief was a wolf then they would have been picking between two "cleared" villagers, since there was the expectation on Chief's part that I would be revealed in the write-up as the wannabe.

I agree most everything else about Chief looks bad, and that they certainly could have chosen "scanned/clear > looks like villager + wannabe" but I did want to put it out there as an additional data point.

[mckerney]

Well, I've got one thing to offer on Chief's behalf.

I said in the PMs last night that I was the wannabe, and that I wanted to use the fast forward last night. Now it didn't end up getting processed, perhaps in part because we had a bunch of different PMs we sent Eagle and maybe it wasn't clear enough that we wanted to use it last night. I don't know ... I revealed this about 3.5 hours before deadline, or about the time I posted in thread telling Chief to check his PMs.

So if Chief was a wolf then they would have been picking between two "cleared" villagers, since there was the expectation on Chief's part that I would be revealed in the write-up as the wannabe.

I agree most everything else about Chief looks bad, and that they certainly could have chosen "scanned/clear > looks like villager + wannabe" but I did want to put it out there as an additional data point.

I don't think that would clear you.

Network or Mole

The following roles could be had by either a mole or network player.

Russell Wannabe - This player is a wannabe ruthless player. As long as this player is still "alive" in the werewolf portion of the game they may once setup a "Yield" on a leg of the race. This player will know the details of setting up a yield. The yield is not guaranteed to help the team and could backfire.

Rob Wannabe - This player is a glory hog and wants to be on reality shows as many times as is humanly possible. If this player is still alive in the werewolf portion of the game (and his/her team is still in the race) the Rob wannabe may once setup a fast forward on a leg of a race. Much like the yield, this is not guaranteed to help his/her team and could backfire.

The Sponsor - You love the money gained from advertising on the show and want the show to last longer. While there are already a couple pre determined non-elimination legs you have the ability to select another leg to be one as well (as long as you are still "alive" in the werewolf portion of the game).

[EagleFan]

Clarification to the Wannabes and the Sponsor. When you select which leg to use your ablity you will be selecting it for the next leg. Example: if you submit it for this deadline the leg that is affected would be the second leg.

It will be known that it has been enacted.

You may submit conditional orders for it (such as, if your team is position x or higher at the end this leg enact it for the next leg).

The clarification of the wanabe roles from the day one questions.

[hoopsguy]

mckerney, while that is true it would require either:
1.) a combined "neutral" and "wolf" role
2.) multiple wolves left

[Autumn]

Hoops, I think that if you put in a fast forward order last night, it applies to the next day, as we see in the next leg's writeup. That's how my sponsor ability worked. Just so you know, I don't think it was a mix-up, you have to send it in a day ahead.

There was no reason to leave GE alive no matter what you did, I think, as GE would be 100% cleared with the cunning reveal. There could at least be some question about you.

[mckerney]

[QUOTE=hoopsguy;2434886]mckerney, while that is true it would require either:
1.) a combined "neutral" and "wolf" role
2.) multiple wolves left[/QUOTE

Yes, it would require a neutral wolf, but since we know they can be combined knowing someone has a neutral role doesn't clear them of being a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

mckerney, do you in any way think that I'm a wolf at this point in the game? Given the events over the last two days?

If not, I don't really think there is a lot worth arguing here.

[mckerney]

mckerney, do you in any way think that I'm a wolf at this point in the game? Given the events over the last two days?

If not, I don't really think there is a lot worth arguing here.

No, I don't believe that you're a wolf, just that I don't think the point you were making in Chief's defense helps him at all.

[hoopsguy]

OK, fair enough on not helping Chief in a meaningful level.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/images/styles/sideline/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?p=2433465#post2433465)
As of post 1369:

Danny 6 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342), GoldenEagle (1362), Chief Rum (1369)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 3 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293), bhlloy (1358)


Repost of Day 5 vote:
NTN + Cougar on the wolf that day. Sure seems to support their cause. I'll go pull the vote/unvote stuff from that day to see how it goes down, as this is obviously an important day to review at this point.

[Autumn]

I need to put a vote in, and it's too late to drum up a new candidate. I'm going with my gut--I don't think hoops is a wolf. And while I like Danny's play, he's the most suspicious of those on the block left, IMO. I don't think I would normally vote him, with what he's done so far, but we're down to two, really.

VOTE DANNY

At this point it was 5-3-3, Danny Hoops/Pass. Interesting that Chief didn't mention Pass at all as a possibility.

[Autumn]

As of post 1302:

Danny 3 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294)
Passacaglia 2 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293)
ntndeacon 1 - GoldenEagle (1297)

This is the vote count at 8:39 pm that day. Will be interesting to see what happens here as Hoops isn't even in the count yet.

[Autumn]

Heh...typical hardly mention hoops all day and then make a run while I went to go work out.

Look, I don't know hoops' allegiance. He may very well be a wolf. But just from the conversations I have had with him, he doesn't vibe like a wolf. I have seen a lot of mentions about him not being around as much and that being suspicious, but it's the truth that he's busy as heck at work. He's told me that in PMs, too, and hoops sn't the kind of guy to lie a out RL stuff to hide as a wolf. Like I said, he could very well be a wolf, but if the only reason some have is that he isn't around, u guys are barking up the wrong tree.

Plus, Pass has exhibited about as poor logical and argumentative skills in this game as I have ever seen in a player in a single game. If he took me to a sunrise and told me the sun exists, I am not sure I would buy it right now; that's how much cred he has. So following him onto hoops, I can't see the logic there.

As for the current other candidates, whatever his other qualities, I don't think Pass plays this way as a wolf. I have already pointed out how nutty it would be to see ntn as a wolf with the way Day 1 went. And I have had a good vibe from Danny all game. None of these choices really work for me, although Danny is very good as a wild hiding as a villager, and his actions, if not his words, have struck me as more suspicious than the other candidates.

It's just for vibe reasons, but my gut says to look closer at PF (who just did a driveby vote), cougar has seemed aittle off, and GE isn't as active as I recall him being.

So Danny adds Hoops to the mix, Pass follows, not a big surprise there. Packer Fan adds a drive-by vote to make Hoops have 3. Not a great vote, but he could have simply gone Danny, so I don't know if it means anything.

Then Chief posts this. I have to say I think it gives him some clearance. He had both Danny and Hoops to choose from over Pass at this point. A wolf Chief should probably jump on one of those two, rather than suggesting adding a fourth candidate.

[Autumn]

Hmm, I have thought about that myself, but it's just not a wolf play. I don't really think Pass is a wolf. I think Pass is many things at the moment--but a wolf is not really one of them, at least not without more proof.

Unless he's playing some sort of double blind game ("best hiding place is in plain sight", etc.), it seems unlikely to me that Pass would play this out the way he has while being a wolf.

Going back to earlier in the day, yes, I think those first two votes on Pass are solid. There was no need to introduce him at that point. He was arguing with Chief, and one could have either gone with Chief, or gone elsewhere and avoided the whole thing. So those are real solid village votes I think.

Here is Chief's reaction right after Pass is added. This one colors him a bit worse I think, coming out in pretty strong defense of Pass as soon as he was added as a vote target.

[Autumn]

I would consider Cougar and NTN cleared for this next vote, based on those votes. McKerney and PF are still murky based on those votes themselves, and Chief of course.

[Autumn]

1438 - Autumn votes mckerney 1-0
1508 - PF votes NTN 1-1 mck/NTN
1516 - Hoops votes Pass 1-1-1 mck/NTN/Pass
1547 - Autumn unvotes mckerney 1-1 NTN/Pass
1570 - Autumn votes JAG 1-1-1 NTN/Pass/JAG
1585 - Hoops unvotes Pass, votes JAG 2-1 JAG over NTN
1591 - NTN votes JAG 3-1 JAG over NTN
1594 - Chief votes mckerney 3-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck
1599 - Cougar votes Pass 3-1-1-1 JAG over NTN/mck/Pass
1606 - GE votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1618 - NTN unvotes JAG, votes mckerney 3-2-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1632 - mck votes Pass 3-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1634 - JAG votes mckerney 4-2-2-1 mck over JAG/Pass over NTN
1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass
1666 - NTN unvotes mck, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass
1678 - GE unvotes mck, votes JAG 5-2-1-1 JAG over mck over NTN/Pass

This bears a new look as well, now knowing Pass was bad.

Yesterday's vote should be examined I think, considering that both PF and Mckerney moved off GE, a villager, onto Pass, a wolf, for the decisive votes. Looking back, do we think they felt enough pressure that they had to move? Or does that pretty much clear them and point a finger at Chief?

[Autumn]

Mckerney in the vote posted above basically puts Pass in the mix at 1632 tying him with JAG behind Mckerney. Not much of a wolf move there. He then later switches from Pass to JAG, allowing NTN to put JAG ahead. Hard to argue that Mckerney looks like a wolf there.

It seems Chief and PF are the only ones to consider right now, in my mind, unless I've missed someone.

[Autumn]

I guess I've ignored Hoops. I may go back and look at him again, too. But my impression so far is that if he's a wolf, he deserves to win the game so that we can go back to lynching him day 1 every day.

[Danny]

Autumn, also don't forget that Pass was willing to follow on the Hoops vote. I'd say there is no way Hoops should receive a vote. I doubt he's a wolf and if he is, he deserves a good job and the win.

[Danny]

Cougar, ntn and Hoops are almost certainly villagers. I find it ridiculous that people are still looking at ntn.

Our last wolf is between CR, Mckerney and Packer.

[Danny]

I also wonder if CR really comes out for Pass like that yesterday knowing he's going to be the lynch? It's quite possible he really felt he was going to be a villager.

[Danny]

It's possible CR is just guilty of having a bad game lol

[mckerney]

I guess I've ignored Hoops. I may go back and look at him again, too. But my impression so far is that if he's a wolf, he deserves to win the game so that we can go back to lynching him day 1 every day.

I have to agree on trusting hoops. I could see a situation where a wolf would help vote off his two teammates to gain trust, but in this situation it's not something I could see the brutal doing.

[mckerney]

Cougar, ntn and Hoops are almost certainly villagers. I find it ridiculous that people are still looking at ntn.

Our last wolf is between CR, Mckerney and Packer.

And we have two lynches to get the right one, correct?

[Danny]

That's correct.

[mckerney]

How confident is everyone else that it's down to me, Chief Rum and Packer?

[Danny]

I think you just revealed as the duke

[Autumn]

Well, unfortunately we're dead, but I'm pretty sure Danny and I agree that it's down to you three, and I've already narrowed it down to PF and Chief.

[mckerney]

I think you just revealed as the duke

I was thinking now would be the time to do that so I don't have to decide who to lynch first.

[Danny]

And if I'm correct on that, we are definitely down to CR and Packer.

[Danny]

It's a fine time I think. Good job on the duke btw, I'm glad you didnt go willy nilly with it over the last couple days like some would have

[Danny]

Mau, great job on our race plan yesterday, I still don't know how we managed that.

[mauchow]

Mau, great job on our race plan yesterday, I still don't know how we managed that.
Yeah, punching the drunk in the face and stealing his car worked! WOOT!

[mckerney]

It's a fine time I think. Good job on the duke btw, I'm glad you didnt go willy nilly with it over the last couple days like some would have

I was ready to use it on JAG when I was on the block. Probably would've voted for JAG earlier in the day if I hadn't had the ability to duke, but I was guessing I'd get some wolf votes and wanted to see how things would play out with 3 candidates.

[Autumn]

Yeah, McK, excellent Duke work. First time in a long time I've seen it managed wisely (including the one time I had it and muffed it).

I think you were already cleared based on my analysis above, but still good to know.

[Danny]

Yeah, McK, excellent Duke work. First time in a long time I've seen it managed wisely (including the one time I had it and muffed it).

I think you were already cleared based on my analysis above, but still good to know.

Yeah, good work on the posts Autumn. Who knew that letting dead villagers talk would hurt the wolves so much :D

[Autumn]

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

[Autumn]

I also think it could be illuminating to look back at PF. I don't have a sense on him other than the stuff I looked at above, whereas I've been following Chief all game.

[cougarfreak]

It's possible CR is just guilty of having a bad game lol

Is he normally one of he better players?

[Autumn]

I think, without digging it up, that PF had the first vote on Mauboy day 1. Chief adn Martin voted him simultaneously later. So it's interesting to see that we definitely had a lot of wolf on wolf votes to start the game. I suspected that they had decided to try that tack. Those votes therefore no longer help to clear either of those guys.

[cougarfreak]

"the", not "he", sorry.

[Autumn]

Is he normally one of the better players?

Definitely, Cougar. The fact that he's been so off on his analysis and targets is a big reason I suspect he's a wolf. He's usually spot-on with his analysis as a villager.

[cougarfreak]

Well, I'll say this. Keeping all the dead people talking has certainly been helpful for a fairly new player.

[mckerney]

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

It helped to have some voices we knee we could trust, and even more with you two and Crimson having solid analysis.

[hoopsguy]

Mckerney in the vote posted above basically puts Pass in the mix at 1632 tying him with JAG behind Mckerney. Not much of a wolf move there. He then later switches from Pass to JAG, allowing NTN to put JAG ahead. Hard to argue that Mckerney looks like a wolf there.

It seems Chief and PF are the only ones to consider right now, in my mind, unless I've missed someone.

That is where I'm at now as well, although I haven't done the vote/post dive exercise that you've gone through this afternoon.

[Autumn]

I just read back through PF's posts. Really nothing to go by there, I think. The only suspicion he creates is that 1) I don't remember him being this quiet normally and 2) it certainly would be the best wolf strategy to play as quietly as he has. He put in a good vote day 1 and coasted on it until now. His general strategy seemed to be to vote early, and often ended up on a non-candidate. Chief looks more like he was trying to influence votes in the game, PF may have been implementing a "stay out of the vote drama" strategy. Hard to say.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not a wolf. I am glad mckerney came out as the duke. Since we have a couple days, I think it's about time I get less emotional tripped up in this game, for whatever reason, and back toward my analytical side. So I'll take a look at vote counts myself and see what I can find. I don't know that it will end up any better than what you guys have, but we'll see...

[Chief Rum]

Is he normally one of he better players?

Go figure, huh? I have to live up to my rep every game, or I tend to disappoint people. I think I played an excellent game in the Vegas game, so this is really just the law of averages.

To be fair, there are a ton of truly great players in this community. I could name off ten off of the top of my head without even thinking. I don't think I am better than any one of them.

[ntndeacon]

I think, without digging it up, that PF had the first vote on Mauboy day 1. Chief adn Martin voted him simultaneously later. So it's interesting to see that we definitely had a lot of wolf on wolf votes to start the game. I suspected that they had decided to try that tack. Those votes therefore no longer help to clear either of those guys.

I definately think the PF early vote on mau is no longer clearing either.

[CrimsonFox]

Well it makes sense, they don't have to worry about us, and it's rather liberating to be able to post without trying to imagine if you're going to get yourself voted by it.

:+1:

[CrimsonFox]

When's the next deadline for race and werewolf? MOnday?

[EagleFan]

When's the next deadline for race and werewolf? MOnday?

Yep, 9 and 10 on Monday.

[PackerFanatic]

I have been admittedly quiet this game, and I apologize for that. I do tend to be quiet more often than not, but definitely more so this week (stupid week-long training sucked the life outta me, lol). I will simply say this...I followed the bandwagon yesterday (Friday) - I didn't want to hit the cunning first, to give us a better chance, and I was amongst those that though GE could be it (hence my quick unvote after voting him) and I didn't want to NOT get a vote in, so I followed hoops' lead with my vote (hence the hit-and-run)

I think my day 1 vote is probably my only saving grace right now, even though it's being questioned right now. If I were a wolf, it would be a pretty ballsy move to open up the voting on a fellow wolf - even on the first day. You never know who is going to gain traction on those days, why would I risk a friend that early?

[EagleFan]

Leg Seven in Pictures

http://www.travelplaces.co.uk/images/renault_pages/germany-frankfurt-airport.jpg
Frankfurt Airport

http://image.motortrend.com/f/29307409+w750/2011-BMW-M3-competition-track-1.jpg

http://www.beerhelps.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/oktoberfest-drinking.jpg

http://www.vector1media.com/vectorone/images/frankfurtds.jpg

http://www.orangesmile.com/common/img_final_large/frankfurt-am-main_sightseeing.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/101st_Airborne_troops_move_out_of_Bastogne.jpg

http://www.ww2incolor.com/d/310322-2/Digitalizar0004_002

http://www.508pir.org/images/dday_60/belgium/bastogne/bastogne_peters_04.jpg

[EagleFan]

RIP Major Winters

http://libertyledger.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Richard_Winters.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nr4yyQfbWBU/Suau7HKeszI/AAAAAAAAAKw/9q5cgCilDIQ/s400/Dick+Winters+November+1944.jpg

http://jesslyn8706.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/20110109-085610.jpg?w=500

[ntndeacon]

Vote Packer

[EagleFan]

As of post 1999:

PackerFanatic 1 - ntndeacon (1999)