MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Not really sneaking. It was bound to be seen either way. Buxton has sustained a .400+ BABIP in over 574 PA. Not saying that he will do that in the MLB, but that is kinda good ("kinda" is downplaying the situation).

That's not an adequate sample. That is nowhere near an adequate sample.

And Buxton had a .400 BABIP in 500 PA last year.

Not. An. Adequate. SAMPLE.

You are entirely missing the point on what I'm saying. I'm not knocking Baez's durability, I'm saying he has never had this many PA in one league yet. So he's getting a taste of how much he will play in the majors.

Lmao, you're knocking him based on PA's per level? This is what you need to stretch to? Baez's 145 wRC+ on a .310 BABIP is better than Buxton's on a .400+ BABIP regardless. If I need to, I'll actually do the regression for you.

This is practically at a stalemate. We really need to get a bigger taste of Buxton in the AA, and AAA leagues. Baez has alot more to go off of, and Buxton has a crazy BABIP, that he has somehow sustained thru his years in MiLB.

Lol, it's not at a stalemate, you're just stretching for points and calling them facts. And even if it were at a stalemate, you'd have proven my point anyhow, as Baez and Buxton's values would be near equal, and then Soler > Meyer.

This really isn't close.

[kmoser]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Correa for Profar?

Rangers wouldn't do it. I know they suck this year but they are more in win now mode than the Astros (who suck as well, I know) so trading away their best young player for a player a few years from the majors isn't something they would do.


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[CameRoN0407]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

That's not an adequate sample. That is nowhere near an adequate sample.



Not. An. Adequate. SAMPLE.



Lmao, you're knocking him based on PA's per level? This is what you need to stretch to? Baez's 145 wRC+ on a .310 BABIP is better than Buxton's on a .400+ BABIP regardless. If I need to, I'll actually do the regression for you.



Lol, it's not at a stalemate, you're just stretching for points and calling them facts. And even if it were at a stalemate, you'd have proven my point anyhow, as Baez and Buxton's values would be near equal, and then Soler > Meyer.

This really isn't close.

Almost an average MLB year.

Almost an average MLB year.

Again, I'm knocking him on the fact his stats have gone down in they year he has the most PAs.

How are we to compare 862 PA to 1,324? Baez has had more time to show his stats, yet Buxton has become the #1 consensus prospect in baseball. Your not even including Buxton's speed and athleticism, which is greater than Baez's. Baez K% is in the dumps as well.

You also seem to neglect the year Baez is currently having.

I'm not going to say Soler>Meyer.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Guys, guys, let's go to the only stat that can properly settle this Buxton-Baez debate: RBIs.

Over the past 2 years, Baez has 166 RBI and Buxton has only 88 in that same span. CLEARLY, Baez is much more talented.

Spoiler

On a more serious note, you guys should check out the future Oliver's projections at the bottom of each player's FanGraphs page.

They are projecting something like an average .275/.340/.455 line with 20 HR and 30 SB and a total 21.2 WAR for Buxton from 2015-2018.

They are projecting .255/.310/.545 line with 42 HR and 12 SB and a total 24.6 WAR for Baez from 2015-2018.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Almost an average MLB year.
Again, I'm knocking him [Baez] on the fact his stats have gone down in they year he has the most PAs.

You've been insinuating that Baez has some sort of weird situation with not being a full time player in the minors? On what basis? You realize his 337 PA at A+ and 240 PA at AA last year all came in the same season, right? When you are looking at his stats page, each level is separated, but you have to add the PAs up from both leagues to tell how much he played in a season, which was all the time actually last year (and this one too). In those 577 PA last season, Baez hit 37 HR and actually got better after getting out of the pitcher-friendly FSL and advancing to AA. I am not following your line of argument about getting worse with more PT at all, whereas I can follow (if not completely agree with) your Buxton is more well-rounded etc so he's more valuable argument.

For what it's worth, Baez is on the creep again. He's a serial slow-starter at each level and don't look now, but his OPS is creeping up toward .800 after being buried in the .600's for most of the season. He actually rode a 10-game hitting streak into the AAA All-Star Break and has a 105 wRC+ since the beginning of June (it was 74 before June). He's also shaved his K-rate by 6% and boosted his BB-rate by 3%. He does this starting at every level actually. Give it until mid-August and he'll be hitting 4-6 HRs per week again with good slash rates.

[KBLover]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Guys, guys, let's go to the only stat that can properly settle this Buxton-Baez debate: RBIs.

Is it weird that I got a good belly laugh reading this statement?

[nl15]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

This is an unrelated question and it has probably been discussed before but how come Alex Rios has a real picture of himself on his player card when he is on the Rangers but when I trade for him it does not show a real picture of him. It shows an auto generated picture. This applies to all players that get traded, not just Rios.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Is it weird that I got a good belly laugh reading this statement?

I'm not seeing why resorting to RBIs to tell who's a better hitter would be funny? I use wins and losses, instead of RBIs, for pitchers.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Almost an average MLB year.

Almost an average MLB year.

Cam. An average MLB year is NOT ENOUGH OF A SAMPLE!!!!!

It takes 820 Balls in Play for BABIP to become reliable. That is multiple seasons. You need to read up on this because your knowledge of BABIP isn't high enough to argue it. An average MLB year is still small sample size for BABIP.

Again, I'm knocking him on the fact his stats have gone down in they year he has the most PAs.

Cool but he doesn't have the most PA's this year lol

How are we to compare 862 PA to 1,324? Baez has had more time to show his stats, yet Buxton has become the #1 consensus prospect in baseball. Your not even including Buxton's speed and athleticism, which is greater than Baez's. Baez K% is in the dumps as well.

Consensus #1? Cool, but Keith Law.

And you're just ignoring what I'm saying, lol.

You also seem to neglect the year Baez is currently having.

Wow. You're really missing my point.

I'm not going to say Soler>Meyer.

What on earth..?

On a more serious note, you guys should check out the future Oliver's projections at the bottom of each player's FanGraphs page.

NONONonono. Oliver's projections are why people are weary of projections. They're really bad. And projecting 5 years into the future is worthless.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

NONONonono. Oliver's projections are why people are weary of projections. They're really bad. And projecting 5 years into the future is worthless.

Well obviously Baez isn't going to hit 40+ HR as a rookie, lol. Those projections are more of a rough snapshot into how these 2 are viewed and compared. If you are using them quantitatively or to make bets with, then, yeah, good luck with that.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

This is an unrelated question and it has probably been discussed before but how come Alex Rios has a real picture of himself on his player card when he is on the Rangers but when I trade for him it does not show a real picture of him. It shows an auto generated picture. This applies to all players that get traded, not just Rios.

Because this is how SCEA has made the game. They responded to feedback of gamers who thought it was unrealistic to have a pic with a Braves hat or something on 5 years after leaving that organization. People seem happier with cyberfaces wearing the proper laundry than with actual pics of guys wearing outdated gear.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Well obviously Baez isn't going to hit 40+ HR as a rookie, lol. Those projections are more of a rough snapshot into how these 2 are viewed and compared. If you are using them quantitatively or to make bets with, then, yeah, good luck with that.

Hey, someone who knows how to use projections! You're my hero.

I'd still be weary of them. Use them as evidence to support your opinion, not your entire opinion. (royal your) It's a useful piece for argument but so much could happen. I'd also limit it to 3 years. And like you said, don't be exact. Rather than saying "Baez will hit 40 HR as a rookie" say "Baez could show big power even as a rookie," stuff like that.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Hey, someone who knows how to use projections! You're my hero.

I'd still be weary of them. Use them as evidence to support your opinion, not your entire opinion. (royal your) It's a useful piece for argument but so much could happen. I'd also limit it to 3 years. And like you said, don't be exact. Rather than saying "Baez will hit 40 HR as a rookie" say "Baez could show big power even as a rookie," stuff like that.

The reason that I was interested in those projections is because if you add up the WAR over 4-5 years, Buxton and Baez were actually pretty close, almost dead even if you consider Buxton being allowed 1 year to catch up to Baez who was drafted a year before. I found it interesting vis-a-vis both players taking pretty different routes into generating that WAR and this probably being a decent conversation piece for a different thread.

[AC]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

The reason that I was interested in those projections is because if you add up the WAR over 4-5 years, Buxton and Baez were actually pretty close, almost dead even if you consider Buxton being allowed 1 year to catch up to Baez who was drafted a year before. I found it interesting vis-a-vis both players taking pretty different routes into generating that WAR and this probably being a decent conversation piece for a different thread.

It supports my point that they're pretty equal.

Meyer is projected as a below average SP from 24-28. Soler is projected as a roughly average LF from 22-26. Also, TNSTAAPP.

Oliver supports my ideology entirely.

[CameRoN0407]

Re: MLB 14 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

You've been insinuating that Baez has some sort of weird situation with not being a full time player in the minors? On what basis? You realize his 337 PA at A+ and 240 PA at AA last year all came in the same season, right? When you are looking at his stats page, each level is separated, but you have to add the PAs up from both leagues to tell how much he played in a season, which was all the time actually last year (and this one too). In those 577 PA last season, Baez hit 37 HR and actually got better after getting out of the pitcher-friendly FSL and advancing to AA. I am not following your line of argument about getting worse with more PT at all, whereas I can follow (if not completely agree with) your Buxton is more well-rounded etc so he's more valuable argument.

For what it's worth, Baez is on the creep again. He's a serial slow-starter at each level and don't look now, but his OPS is creeping up toward .800 after being buried in the .600's for most of the season. He actually rode a 10-game hitting streak into the AAA All-Star Break and has a 105 wRC+ since the beginning of June (it was 74 before June). He's also shaved his K-rate by 6% and boosted his BB-rate by 3%. He does this starting at every level actually. Give it until mid-August and he'll be hitting 4-6 HRs per week again with good slash rates.

I don't add each level up and consider it one year. For the more advanced bats (Baez and Buxton), they could play at A+ and AA. They are two different levels with two very different levels of pitching. They could crush A+ pitching, and not AA pitching as well. What does adding the full year show us? Certainly not how they play in each level. Also, if he is struggling in a pitcher friendly league, the NL is not going to be fun for him.

But his slow start has occurred longer than any other. So that is a factor that is scaring me more than any other year.

Cam. An average MLB year is NOT ENOUGH OF A SAMPLE!!!!!

It takes 820 Balls in Play for BABIP to become reliable. That is multiple seasons. You need to read up on this because your knowledge of BABIP isn't high enough to argue it. An average MLB year is still small sample size for BABIP.



Cool but he doesn't have the most PA's this year lol



Consensus #1? Cool, but Keith Law.

And you're just ignoring what I'm saying, lol.



Wow. You're really missing my point.



What on earth..?



NONONonono. Oliver's projections are why people are weary of projections. They're really bad. And projecting 5 years into the future is worthless.

Then why did you use 500 PAs of Baez as an example?

Then I guess we can't use BABIP, Because niether have had enough balls in play to be reliable.

He has the most PAs he's ever had at a single level.

I'm talking begining of the year. Pretty obvious he was going to fall in rankings.

I'm not missing your point, I'm debating it by using his current year, which you seem to have ignored.

I will say Soler is the better right now because he isn't a pitcher. But that is the only reason.

Wow, we agree on something!

Where is this argument getting us? We are nearly thru our second page, I think we have both made our points, and should stop clogging the thread. Neither is going to persuade the other, and Baez is only gonna be traded for pitching, if at all anyways.