Re: MLB 16 Franchise Progress Thread
Marlins September 2022 Report
Standings:
The Marlins have the NL East all but wrapped up. They have not officially clinched just yet, but it's just a formality at this point. The team is up by 18 games as September gets started.
Recent Hot Performers (Season Stats)
CF Bo Winter, .309/.378/.595, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 12 SB, 6.9 WAR
C Tommy Cruz, .281/.366/.440, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 19 SB, 5.0 WAR
SP Damian Boeve, 16-3, 210 IP, 297 K, 1.63 ERA, 9.1 WAR
Recent Cold Performers (Season Stats)
2B Javier Baez, .268/.322/.475, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 10 SB, 1.9 WAR
SP Moses Bartlett, 6-6, 95 IP, 66 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.3 WAR
RF Josh Hart, .221/.266/.332, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 8 SB, 0.3 WAR
NL Awards Races
NL MVP:
Marlins SP Damian Boeve is on the inside track for his fourth consecutive NL MVP award. Brewers SP Eddie Butler is in second place while teammate Bo Winter is in third.
NL Cy Young:
Boeve leads here and it would be his 5th in a row. Eddie Butler is in second place here as well with the second half of "Double Dragon", Luis Heredia, in third.
NL Pitching Triple Crown:
Damian Boeve might lose out on this for the first time in three seasons...by his own teammate. Luis Heredia has 17 wins to lead the NL. Boeve is one behind at 16. With Nationals' Todd Justice coming back to earth, only the Giants' Kyle Crick is a legitimate threat on the ERA leg at this point. Strikeouts? Boeve probably could get none in September and still win...he's at 297...a lock for 300 and then some, barring *knock wood* an injury.
Boeve is also in jeopardy of missing 20 wins for the first time since 2019, though his ERA is on track to drop for the 5th straight year.
NL Batting Title:
Marlins CF Bo Winter looks to break Yelich's two-year win streak here. Winter has a lot of competition, though, as Clint Fraizer is just one point behind as is Brewers CF Ryan Strasborger. Yelich himself is in the thick of things as well.
NL Hank Aaron:
Bo Winter is trying to break another teammate's streak. This time it's Chris Davis' stranglehold on this award. If Winter can do it, at least it would "stay in the family". But Winter has to deal with Clint Fraizer again and this time Braves 3B Corey Seager is in third place and not far behind.
Major League News and Rumors
As the season winds down, there are reports of severe buyer's remorse on Javier Baez. For a while, that died down as it looked like he'd play like the star he is rated as being, but then he cooled off again and left the Marlins wondering why they got seduced.
Baez could lead the way in what will be a further re-tooling of the team, perhaps almost to the point of a minor rebuild, on the offensive side of things. Baez is not the only disappointment in a lineup still led by the refusal of Chris Davis to decline even in his mid-30's along with Bo Winter trying to do it all as well.
Jose Campos' attempt to locked down SS has left much to be desired at the plate. The same is said about Josh Hart and his .221 batting average (Campos' is not much better). In RF, that means Arturo Gonzalez will likely be up to stay sooner than later. At 2B (Baez) and SS (Campos), it gets more complicated because the Marlins have a lot of prospects up the middle infield...but not many that scream "I am ready" when it comes to promotion to the majors. That is where the Marlins will need to embrace a rebuilding attitude to have the chutzpah to go with prospects and really lean on their pitching and Davis/Winter/Brito.
Speaking of Brito, he's continuing to get better. The walk rate has evaporated, but walks are low league wide (the Marlins barely have 400 [420] but that's still 3rd in the majors and 2nd in the NL) as the pitching dominance continues. More encouraging is his .250 batting average and increased plate coverage. That combined with his insane power could finally make next year the breakout the Marlins have waited 4 years for.
Not all is peachy on the pitching side of things. Moses Bartlett is having a career low year as his knuckleball just doesn't want to act right this season. On top of that, his stamina has been a concern, perhaps threatening to relegate him to long relief. If so, that would open the door to a ridiculously deep pitching battle for the 5th starter spot that would border on sheer chaos. I don't envy Mattingly for trying to sort that out.
That also means Byung-hy...er...Robinson Mota would move up to the #4 post, providing more assurance for the youngster in being in the rotation.
Prospects Report
The pitching side has the most advanced prospects, by projected ceiling, but it's the offensive prospects that could be the driver of the team in 2023 depending on how the offseason shakes out.
Chief among those is 2B Jay Craft, though calling him just a second baseman is almost an insult. The versatile Tarheels product is like a Swiss army knife on the field. He plays every position except 1B and C (and pitcher). He's a switch hitter with no obvious weaker side. And he has the arm for all of those positions, and is total overkill for a 2B...his arm is elite for a third baseman, along with the quickness. He can even steal some bases. About the only thing he can't do is hit home runs.
Right behind Craft is Martin Ybarra and Kirk Jeffries. Both Ybarra and Jeffries also show versatility in the field, though Jeffries' abilities play best at 2B or corner outfield. Ybarra is close to Craft, though not quite as ridiculous an arm, but he's less error prone than Craft. Ybarra at 2B and Craft at SS could be doable with Jeffries as the utility man. What's interesting is none of these young men play 1B, so Chet Doyle remains unaffected by any of this!
Mark Morrow and Patrick Brandt are the big dogs, ceiling-wise, at shortstop, but neither are close to ready. No need to even consider rushing them with the trio mentioned above.
So why doesn't that trio scream "I am ready"?
Craft is an error waiting to happen on paper (but Brito has a similar profile and has been dynamite at 3B) and his lack of power will mean he will heavily rely on walks and BABIP. Even Christian Yelich, with his 80 hit tool, even has trouble staying over .300 with that style of play.
Ybarra's bat seems questionable at best, especially given the pitching environment in the league. His hit tool is probably a 40 - if that, environment considered. 40 hit, 40 power, and 70+ fielding. Is that an everyday player or a defensive replacement?
Jeffries has Craft's decent contact bat and lack of power...but not Craft's big arm and cat-like quickness in the field.
Of course, if the Marlins decide to leave all of these kids down in the minors a while longer, veterans Tim Anderson and Niko Goodrum are still around and always ready for the time at the show.
On the outfield side, Arturo Gonzalez gets the press but Freddie Santiago is right there. Both of these are "late bloomers" (or perhaps simply won't hit those original lofty projections). Gonzalez might be a touch better as he doesn't have a weaker side hitting-wise and has better range. Santiago struggles some against lefties despite being a switch hitter, but has a better arm than Gonzalez - and at RF, that could be a draw in his favor.
Like pretty much every other team in the league - the Marlins have precious little behind the plate in terms of prospects. They are blessed as it is to have Tommy Cruz still doing well and just 26 years old. Charles Yamazaki is probably the best prospect at the position, and he has some upside. The defense is coming around nicely and there might be a budding slugger lurking in him. Injuries and conditioning are the giant red flags around Yamazaki, always has been and is concerning for a demanding position like catcher, but that might be abating slightly.
Standings:
The Marlins have the NL East all but wrapped up. They have not officially clinched just yet, but it's just a formality at this point. The team is up by 18 games as September gets started.
Recent Hot Performers (Season Stats)
CF Bo Winter, .309/.378/.595, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 12 SB, 6.9 WAR
C Tommy Cruz, .281/.366/.440, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 19 SB, 5.0 WAR
SP Damian Boeve, 16-3, 210 IP, 297 K, 1.63 ERA, 9.1 WAR
Recent Cold Performers (Season Stats)
2B Javier Baez, .268/.322/.475, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 10 SB, 1.9 WAR
SP Moses Bartlett, 6-6, 95 IP, 66 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.3 WAR
RF Josh Hart, .221/.266/.332, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 8 SB, 0.3 WAR
NL Awards Races
NL MVP:
Marlins SP Damian Boeve is on the inside track for his fourth consecutive NL MVP award. Brewers SP Eddie Butler is in second place while teammate Bo Winter is in third.
NL Cy Young:
Boeve leads here and it would be his 5th in a row. Eddie Butler is in second place here as well with the second half of "Double Dragon", Luis Heredia, in third.
NL Pitching Triple Crown:
Damian Boeve might lose out on this for the first time in three seasons...by his own teammate. Luis Heredia has 17 wins to lead the NL. Boeve is one behind at 16. With Nationals' Todd Justice coming back to earth, only the Giants' Kyle Crick is a legitimate threat on the ERA leg at this point. Strikeouts? Boeve probably could get none in September and still win...he's at 297...a lock for 300 and then some, barring *knock wood* an injury.
Boeve is also in jeopardy of missing 20 wins for the first time since 2019, though his ERA is on track to drop for the 5th straight year.
NL Batting Title:
Marlins CF Bo Winter looks to break Yelich's two-year win streak here. Winter has a lot of competition, though, as Clint Fraizer is just one point behind as is Brewers CF Ryan Strasborger. Yelich himself is in the thick of things as well.
NL Hank Aaron:
Bo Winter is trying to break another teammate's streak. This time it's Chris Davis' stranglehold on this award. If Winter can do it, at least it would "stay in the family". But Winter has to deal with Clint Fraizer again and this time Braves 3B Corey Seager is in third place and not far behind.
Major League News and Rumors
As the season winds down, there are reports of severe buyer's remorse on Javier Baez. For a while, that died down as it looked like he'd play like the star he is rated as being, but then he cooled off again and left the Marlins wondering why they got seduced.
Baez could lead the way in what will be a further re-tooling of the team, perhaps almost to the point of a minor rebuild, on the offensive side of things. Baez is not the only disappointment in a lineup still led by the refusal of Chris Davis to decline even in his mid-30's along with Bo Winter trying to do it all as well.
Jose Campos' attempt to locked down SS has left much to be desired at the plate. The same is said about Josh Hart and his .221 batting average (Campos' is not much better). In RF, that means Arturo Gonzalez will likely be up to stay sooner than later. At 2B (Baez) and SS (Campos), it gets more complicated because the Marlins have a lot of prospects up the middle infield...but not many that scream "I am ready" when it comes to promotion to the majors. That is where the Marlins will need to embrace a rebuilding attitude to have the chutzpah to go with prospects and really lean on their pitching and Davis/Winter/Brito.
Speaking of Brito, he's continuing to get better. The walk rate has evaporated, but walks are low league wide (the Marlins barely have 400 [420] but that's still 3rd in the majors and 2nd in the NL) as the pitching dominance continues. More encouraging is his .250 batting average and increased plate coverage. That combined with his insane power could finally make next year the breakout the Marlins have waited 4 years for.
Not all is peachy on the pitching side of things. Moses Bartlett is having a career low year as his knuckleball just doesn't want to act right this season. On top of that, his stamina has been a concern, perhaps threatening to relegate him to long relief. If so, that would open the door to a ridiculously deep pitching battle for the 5th starter spot that would border on sheer chaos. I don't envy Mattingly for trying to sort that out.
That also means Byung-hy...er...Robinson Mota would move up to the #4 post, providing more assurance for the youngster in being in the rotation.
Prospects Report
The pitching side has the most advanced prospects, by projected ceiling, but it's the offensive prospects that could be the driver of the team in 2023 depending on how the offseason shakes out.
Chief among those is 2B Jay Craft, though calling him just a second baseman is almost an insult. The versatile Tarheels product is like a Swiss army knife on the field. He plays every position except 1B and C (and pitcher). He's a switch hitter with no obvious weaker side. And he has the arm for all of those positions, and is total overkill for a 2B...his arm is elite for a third baseman, along with the quickness. He can even steal some bases. About the only thing he can't do is hit home runs.
Right behind Craft is Martin Ybarra and Kirk Jeffries. Both Ybarra and Jeffries also show versatility in the field, though Jeffries' abilities play best at 2B or corner outfield. Ybarra is close to Craft, though not quite as ridiculous an arm, but he's less error prone than Craft. Ybarra at 2B and Craft at SS could be doable with Jeffries as the utility man. What's interesting is none of these young men play 1B, so Chet Doyle remains unaffected by any of this!
Mark Morrow and Patrick Brandt are the big dogs, ceiling-wise, at shortstop, but neither are close to ready. No need to even consider rushing them with the trio mentioned above.
So why doesn't that trio scream "I am ready"?
Craft is an error waiting to happen on paper (but Brito has a similar profile and has been dynamite at 3B) and his lack of power will mean he will heavily rely on walks and BABIP. Even Christian Yelich, with his 80 hit tool, even has trouble staying over .300 with that style of play.
Ybarra's bat seems questionable at best, especially given the pitching environment in the league. His hit tool is probably a 40 - if that, environment considered. 40 hit, 40 power, and 70+ fielding. Is that an everyday player or a defensive replacement?
Jeffries has Craft's decent contact bat and lack of power...but not Craft's big arm and cat-like quickness in the field.
Of course, if the Marlins decide to leave all of these kids down in the minors a while longer, veterans Tim Anderson and Niko Goodrum are still around and always ready for the time at the show.
On the outfield side, Arturo Gonzalez gets the press but Freddie Santiago is right there. Both of these are "late bloomers" (or perhaps simply won't hit those original lofty projections). Gonzalez might be a touch better as he doesn't have a weaker side hitting-wise and has better range. Santiago struggles some against lefties despite being a switch hitter, but has a better arm than Gonzalez - and at RF, that could be a draw in his favor.
Like pretty much every other team in the league - the Marlins have precious little behind the plate in terms of prospects. They are blessed as it is to have Tommy Cruz still doing well and just 26 years old. Charles Yamazaki is probably the best prospect at the position, and he has some upside. The defense is coming around nicely and there might be a budding slugger lurking in him. Injuries and conditioning are the giant red flags around Yamazaki, always has been and is concerning for a demanding position like catcher, but that might be abating slightly.
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