2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[Troopershorty51]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Huh? Judging by the Orioles' board on MLB.com I'm pretty sure they want to compete.

Want, not can.

For whatever it's worth, Buster Olney picked them to win the division, which is.. uh... okay.. Meh, I guess that's why someone created that TrippinOlney account.

Every team WANTS to compete of course, but I believe that the organization is smart enough to know that it's not worth trading away Markakis and a young arm for a 36 year old Halladay. They really didn't lose anything from last year so if they made it then without Halladay and an injured Markakis for a good bit of the season, they could always do it again this year especially if he stays healthy the whole year and with Adam Jones fully developing. And Bundy will most likely be joining the rotation at some point and you have no idea how he'll do.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Every team WANTS to compete of course, but I believe that the organization is smart enough to know that it's not worth trading away Markakis and a young arm for a 36 year old Halladay. They really didn't lose anything from last year so if they made it then without Halladay and an injured Markakis for a good bit of the season, they could always do it again this year especially if he stays healthy the whole year and with Adam Jones fully developing. And Bundy will most likely be joining the rotation at some point and you have no idea how he'll do.

For the record, I added to my comment after I posted it.

The thing is, yeah, they kept everyone, but the Red Sox made additions, the Rays made additions, the Blue Jays made additions, and you can never count the Yankees out, although now's as good a time as any to do so.

However, merely keeping everyone means little to nothing, as there's no guarantee- especially with the root of their success, the RPs- that they'll put up the same numbers. While progression should be expected from some, regression should be expected from others, especially volatile relievers. Then, there's factoring in injuries, and Bundy is no guarantee to perform, despite how Trout and Harper have clouded the general view of prospects.

[Bronx Bomber03]

Huh? Judging by the Orioles' board on MLB.com I'm pretty sure they want to compete. Want, not can.

For whatever it's worth, Buster Olney picked them to win the division, which is.. uh... okay.. Meh, I guess that's why someone created that TrippinOlney account.

And, yeah, defensive / baserunning metrics aren't the greatest, but they're not terrible, and BsR is pretty good, and they think Markakis has provided negative value on defense and baserunning for a while now. His offense isn't *spectacular* either.

I totally agree. Just because people don't think they'll compete doesn't mean they think they won't compete.

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[andrewochs615]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Good pitching got that team 2 consecutive world series appearances and 5 straight division titles. Starting pitching did not really carry the Orioles last year but rather the outstanding bullpen work from Strop, O'Day, and Jim Johnson and co. (In fact Jim Johnson led RP in WPA with 5.35 and O'Day 5th with 3.42) Meanwhile no Orioles SP had a positive WPA. The Bullpen was the unit that really shined, not Starting Pitchers.

The Orioles were 29-9 (!) in one run games. That's ridiculous and the chances of them having that good of luck in one run games are slim to none. You cannot possibly expect sustained success from a team that had the year the Orioles had last year. And besides, they lost in the 1st round meaning that they still have a long ways to go.

Roy Halladay's stock has dropped some sure but he is far and beyond more valuable than Nick Markakis. If you called the Phillies no less than 2 years ago and offered Markakis for Halladay they would've laughed in your face and hang up

They actually lost in the second round. They took the yankees to game 5 and would of won if Jim Johnson waas actually himself. The one run success was crucial in the first half, but they were a totally different team in the second half once Machado ws brought up, they had the 2nd best record or something in the second half.

And as pitching depth they have: Wada, Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Jurrgens. McFarland, S. Johnson, Gausman, and Bundy. This is to go with Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman.

I am not saying Halladay wouldn't help the Orioles or it wouldn't be a fair trade. I am saying the Orioles would not trade Markakis for Halladay in real life. In your video game world do whatever, its your fantasy world.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

They actually lost in the second round. They took the yankees to game 5 and would of won if Jim Johnson waas actually himself. The one run success was crucial in the first half, but they were a totally different team in the second half once Machado ws brought up, they had the 2nd best record or something in the second half.

And as pitching depth they have: Wada, Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Jurrgens. McFarland, S. Johnson, Gausman, and Bundy. This is to go with Hammel, Chen, Gonzalez and Tillman.

Oh, you mean your reliever regressed? Hmm. How 'bout that?

Wade is pretty bad, Britton should honestly be a reliever as he's pretty bad, Matusz IS a reliever last I checked, Arrieta could be a #3, Jurrgens is probably Jurrjens who's lost a ton of velocity and was injured, I can't even find anything on McFarland, Johnson's a #5, Gausman is NOT ready and Bundy isn't quite ready yet. Hammel was good but injured, Chen wasn't great, Gonzalez had a low BABIP/high LOB%/low HR:FB, and Tillman, I forget but I think he might be figuring things out.

That's not a playoff rotation.

You guys have McClouth/Jones/Reimold/Avery as a good OF, Markakis is expendable and Halladay would help. If you guys wouldn't want to do this, fine, but you really should, because it's pretty foolish not to.

EDIT: I feel like this was too much writing to dedicate to a rival team I detest more than pretty much any other team.

[Noles4ever]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Depends who else they have to give up but I think they'd do it in a heartbeat.

The O's would be stupid to trade for a pitcher that has seen his best days behind him.

[Troopershorty51]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Oh, you mean your reliever regressed? Hmm. How 'bout that?

Wade is pretty bad, Britton should honestly be a reliever as he's pretty bad, Matusz IS a reliever last I checked, Arrieta could be a #3, Jurrgens is probably Jurrjens who's lost a ton of velocity and was injured, I can't even find anything on McFarland, Johnson's a #5, Gausman is NOT ready and Bundy isn't quite ready yet. Hammel was good but injured, Chen wasn't great, Gonzalez had a low BABIP/high LOB%/low HR:FB, and Tillman, I forget but I think he might be figuring things out.

That's not a playoff rotation.

You guys have McClouth/Jones/Reimold/Avery as a good OF, Markakis is expendable and Halladay would help. If you guys wouldn't want to do this, fine, but you really should, because it's pretty foolish not to.

EDIT: I feel like this was too much writing to dedicate to a rival team I detest more than pretty much any other team.

I honestly don't understand your hatred for the O's. But last season was a blast for us fans and I hope you have fun with the Miami Marlins v2.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I honestly don't understand your hatred for the O's. But last season was a blast for us fans and I hope you have fun with the Miami Marlins v2.

Wait; "Us," but has Phillies logo avatar. Kay then. Have fun with your regression lol, it's called not liking a division rival

[Troopershorty51]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Wait; "Us," but has Phillies logo. Kay then. Have fun with your regression lol, it's called not liking a division rival

I forgot you can't like multiple teams from different leagues especially when you grew up going to both of their games multiple times every year...

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I forgot you can't like multiple teams from different leagues especially when you grew up going to both of their games multiple times every year...

Yeah, but I'd figure you like one team more than the other, which makes using 'we' a bit surprising. And I forgot I can't hate division rivals. But we're off topic

[Troopershorty51]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Yeah, but I'd figure you like one team more than the other, which makes using 'we' a bit surprising. And I forgot I can't hate division rivals. But we're off topic

You're welcome to hate them but I just don't see any reason for Jays and O's fans to hate eachother, it's not really a storied rivalry like Yankees/Red Sox or anything.

But back on-topic, this won't really go anywhere as we both think very differently. I agree that the value of the players is not lopsided but it's not a deal I would ever see the O's making at this point. Unless they were in a very close division race and Markakis was not performing. That's all the more I want to talk about this though.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

You're welcome to hate them but I just don't see any reason for Jays and O's fans to hate eachother, it's not really a storied rivalry like Yankees/Red Sox or anything.

But back on-topic, this won't really go anywhere as we both think very differently. I agree that the value of the players is not lopsided but it's not a deal I would ever see the O's making at this point. Unless they were in a very close division race and Markakis was not performing. That's all the more I want to talk about this though.

I use hate loosely. I don't like 'em, mainly because of how freaking lucky they got and I was mad jealous that that wasn't us last season.

Yeah it's a trade they don't make until the deadline imo.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, so I think the fact that the board is so split on this Halladay for Markakis and Matusz trade actually tells me it must be a pretty good deal, since smart amateur baseball people on both sides can see the merits. But count me in favor of Baltimore would ABSOLUTELY consider trading Markakis for Halladay.

And here's why...

What is common in all World Series Champions lately? If you said strong starting pitching, you'd be cliche, but also correct. We can think of the Giants/Cardinals/Yankees/Phillies/Red Sox as teams who have won recently. Guess what all of those have in common? Strong starting pitching and a legitimate ACE. Whether you're talking about Cain, Bumgarner, Wainwright, Hamels, Sabathia, Schilling, Beckett--you're talking about top aces that can win any given playoff game.

The Orioles currently don't have an ace. Certainly they have some great depth, but nothing even resembling an ace, not yet anyway.

But, Roy Halladay could be an ace for another 2-3 years yet if he can get/stay healthy. Even in a bad year for him last year, he still posted numbers that would have put him as Baltimore's 2nd starter. In fact, even though he was hurt last year, Halladay pitched more innings (156) than anyone on BAL's staff aside from Wei-Yin Chen. Last season was the first time since 2005 that 2-time Cy Young winner Roy Halladay did not pitch 200+ innings in a season. He's been consistently at 220-250 IP for half a decade now. If you removed the name and just looked at K/9 = 7.6, K/BB = 3.76 W-L 11-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.22 WHIP you might think, hey this guy is pretty good. And then if you consider he's been an 8+ WAR pitcher (!!!!) 2 of the past 3 seasons in a pitcher's park, you'd really be stoked. And this doesn't even count how awesome it would be for the young pitchers like Dylan Bundy to learn from a guy like Roy Halladay.

35 is old for some players, but scores of pitchers have pitched to 40 and been effective. Just look at Maddux or Mussina or Fergie Jenkins or Schilling or Randy Johnson or Andy Pettitte or John Smoltz...to infinity. I actually think Halladay has shown incredible durability in his career and his tall, strong frame is the type that ages particularly well.

And you can't tell me that the Orioles trotting Roy Halladay out there for Game 1 of a playoff series wouldn't geek up the fans and sike out the opposing team moreso than Miguel Gonzalez or Chris Tillman or Wei-Yin Chen or Jason Hammel? Seriously? Halladay has a 2.37 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 38 playoff innings. Baltimore's current starting rotation doesn't have 38 playoff IP combined.

And this analysis doesn't really try to tear Markakis down either to prove a point. He's a solid player that people are simply overrating (1.5-2.0ish WAR, hovering around 0.800 OPS lately). As a matter of fact, Markakis ranked tied with Manny Machado (who played half as many games) for 4th on the Orioles in WAR for position players in 2012. Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and J.J. Hardy all had WARs at least 2x higher. And Chris Davis even had a 1.3 WAR. So, the whole "Markakis is the best (or one of the top 2-3) hitters on the O's" argument is quite a stretch at best. I think Markakis, in 2013, is realistically the 4th or 5th most valuable position player on the O's after Jones, Wieters, Machado, and maybe Hardy (lower if Brian Roberts comes back strong).

[rjackson]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Good post and I'd tend to agree until this spring.

I read that Halladay was looking like crap this spring and after watching a bit of him on MLBnetwork, I agree that he didn't look good at all. I don't think Baltimore would pull the trigger for Halladay until he shows that he's still got it and was just working on stuff or something. There is no way this deal gets done until July. Even then, I don't like in Baltimore so I don't know the feeling on Markakis there. Cities tend to get attached to homegrown talent.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Holy Jeebus, WaitTilNextYear, what a post! Just be careful that you're not overusing WAR, and you're specifying bWAR and fWAR. Remember, though, WAR isn't the end-all-be-all stat. It's useful, but not the only stat out there that matters.

Good post and I'd tend to agree until this spring.

I read that Halladay was looking like crap this spring and after watching a bit of him on MLBnetwork, I agree that he didn't look good at all. I don't think Baltimore would pull the trigger for Halladay until he shows that he's still got it and was just working on stuff or something. There is no way this deal gets done until July. Even then, I don't like in Baltimore so I don't know the feeling on Markakis there. Cities tend to get attached to homegrown talent.

Like I said, this is a deadline deal. Brandon Morrow's hitting like 89 right now. It's spring, and only halfway through spring. And he's coming off an injury. And changed his training regime. Give him a few weeks, he'll be back to the Doc we all know and love.