2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[BlueJays09]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

What if it were Lawrie+My 1st pick last years draft (High B, 74 overall RF) for Headley+Alonso ...I would upgrade 1b definitely and since you said Lawrie >>>>>> Headley what ya think of this?

Also was offered Sandoval+Lincecum for Lawrie+Carrasco (got from Indians)

[Bluejaysfan65]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

What if it were Lawrie+My 1st pick last years draft (High B, 74 overall RF) for Headley+Alonso ...I would upgrade 1b definitely and since you said Lawrie >>>>>> Headley what ya think of this?

Also was offered Sandoval+Lincecum for Lawrie+Carrasco (got from Indians)

Kinda dependent on how Sandoval and Lincecum are doing.

[BlueJays09]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Ya lincy is sucking but Sandoval is doing decent.

What about the Alonso and headley for Lawrie and maybe melky (mid b) or my rookie (high b)?? Headley and Lawrie are doing similar, but Lawrie prob a bit better. Alonso has 16 homers at deadline.

[rjackson]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

You're getting absolutely mauled

Lawrie >>>> Headley

Wait, WHAT?!

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Wait, WHAT?!

Oh lol we're gonna do this?

Lawrie WAR/600: 3.5
Headley WAR/600: 3.3

Lawrie: under team control until 2017 I think?
Headley: under team control until 2014

Lawrie: 23
Headley: 29

Lawrie contract: $500k
Headley contract: $8m

Fun fact: Chase Headley has had 3 seasons of positive wRAA... and 4 negative ones.

If you're gonna say that Chase Headley is more valuable than Brett Lawrie, go right ahead, it'd just be really incorrect. Go look at the surplus values.

[KBLover]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Here's one I'm on the fence about offering because I really don't want to do it, but I'm sick of Escobar's gross underachievement (.230 hitting, 13 errors, .935 fielding pct...13 errors, in May... I know, not the best measures of defense, but still...)

Anyway, according to the value chart - this would be a fair deal.

TB sends:
SP Hellickson (B, C)
LF Joyce (B)

LAD sends:
SS Dee Gordon (B, B, C)


Not the power hitter I really want, but none of them out there except Ortiz. Like I said, not really a trade I WANT to make, but at least Gordon has speed, about the only gift my offense has (that and, for whatever reason, we've been hit by 38 pitches already)...and two of my three speedsters are on the DL...Podsednik out for months...

Performance-wise - Joyce is hitting .220 or some nonsense. Hellickson is doing very well thus far, though. Gordon - is batting .179, but only 28 ABs, so basically tiny sample size.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Here's one I'm on the fence about offering because I really don't want to do it, but I'm sick of Escobar's gross underachievement (.230 hitting, 13 errors, .935 fielding pct...13 errors, in May... I know, not the best measures of defense, but still...)

Anyway, according to the value chart - this would be a fair deal.

TB sends:
SP Hellickson (B, C)
LF Joyce (B)

LAD sends:
SS Dee Gordon (B, B, C)


Not the power hitter I really want, but none of them out there except Ortiz. Like I said, not really a trade I WANT to make, but at least Gordon has speed, about the only gift my offense has (that and, for whatever reason, we've been hit by 38 pitches already)...and two of my three speedsters are on the DL...Podsednik out for months...

Performance-wise - Joyce is hitting .220 or some nonsense. Hellickson is doing very well thus far, though. Gordon - is batting .179, but only 28 ABs, so basically tiny sample size.

I don't like that deal for you. Dee is quite a bit overvalued and it seems that a lot of people that try him out end up disappointed because he can't hit. He's also a terrible option at SS because he can't field. I'd try him out in a few test games before deciding to do this deal. Otherwise you might just be getting a glorified pinch runner. Even if you still like Dee, I'd offer 1 low B and 1 hi C at maximum.

[KBLover]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I don't like that deal for you. Dee is quite a bit overvalued and it seems that a lot of people that try him out end up disappointed because he can't hit. He's also a terrible option at SS because he can't field. I'd try him out in a few test games before deciding to do this deal. Otherwise you might just be getting a glorified pinch runner. Even if you still like Dee, I'd offer 1 low B and 1 hi C at maximum.

Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm afraid of - might be getting a faster Escobar - complete with the same .230-ish I'm getting now and losing Hellickson for the privilege.

Dodgers won't take less than Hellickson at the moment, so I'm moving on. I would consider Joyce for this kid or something like that straight up, but they don't like it so, c'est la vie.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

How's Asdrubal Cabrera doing?

[BlueJays09]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Yeah, that's the kind of thing I'm afraid of - might be getting a faster Escobar - complete with the same .230-ish I'm getting now and losing Hellickson for the privilege.

Dodgers won't take less than Hellickson at the moment, so I'm moving on. I would consider Joyce for this kid or something like that straight up, but they don't like it so, c'est la vie.

Might have to turn force trades on cause AI trade logic is crap. I was offered Fielder for Rasmus and Drabek and declined Lawrie for Aram lmao.

[rjackson]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Oh lol we're gonna do this?

Lawrie WAR/600: 3.5
Headley WAR/600: 3.3

Lawrie: under team control until 2017 I think?
Headley: under team control until 2014

Lawrie: 23
Headley: 29

Lawrie contract: $500k
Headley contract: $8m

Fun fact: Chase Headley has had 3 seasons of positive wRAA... and 4 negative ones.

If you're gonna say that Chase Headley is more valuable than Brett Lawrie, go right ahead, it'd just be really incorrect. Go look at the surplus values.

I don't really want to do this tbh. I gotta speak the truth, though. And first, your wRAA counts are including a season where he played 8 games as a Sept call-up, really? Nice pick and choose your stat but wRAA is based off of wOBA as is wRC. Check again, Headley has had only 1 year of below average wRC and it was 98. Sabermetrics can't be pick and choose or you don't get the whole picture. I'll give you new and old school thought.

Lawrie has been an average (wOBA is around .318/.319 the last 2 years) hitter who is streaky and known for immature antics like this and this. Bluejays fans especially hang on to the hot streaks and dream of him doing it consistently--being their Chipper Jones or something. He might be a bargain at 500k but arbitration is coming and a few silly months is gonna cost them $$$. He won't be a bargain anymore. He might be Alex Rios next year-paid for what he is worth. Even though he appears to have recovered statistically this 2nd half, he's got to make it sustained before he has value--even surplus. Surplus value is not a given. Chone Figgins is still Chone Figgins whether he has 6 years of team control or not.

However, I don't see it being sustained. His swing has a particular hitch and he opens his hips. I do differentiate between a hitch and a load. A load maintains balance despite being done early and allows a hitter to attack fastballs and offspeed pitches. Josh Donaldson has a great load now, so does Bryce Harper. A hitch hampers a swing, makes you late on heat, and forces you to shorten your stroke. Hmm, didn't Lawrie have to shorten his stroke to recover this year? Yes, yes he did.

Headley is a stronger defender by all metrics, gets on base more often, and is a switch-hitter who has been more consistent due to his better mechanics. In his worst years like this one, he still is an average MLB hitter via wOBA and has accumulated 2.7 fWAR. He is a bargain at 8MM!

There is a reason that he is subject to trade rumors, everyone asks about him. Nobody asks about Lawrie because while he appears to have some value, his track record has limited it.

The rest of that trade bothered me as well, though. Like Street >>> Santos and it is questionable but Amarista <=> Gose. Gose is SO overrated. He can play D in the OF but Amarista can play it in the IF as well. They both have speed, Gose maybe more but when is he on base to use it? Amarista gets to use his a bit more.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

I think you're missing out on the fact that Lawrie is a league average player at 23. Do you realize how incredible that is?

And LOL at Gose < Amarista. Okay there, man.

[KBLover]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

How's Asdrubal Cabrera doing?

Not terrible - .257 BA, .721 OPS, .970 FPct (5 errors).

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Not terrible - .257 BA, .721 OPS, .970 FPct (5 errors).

OBP? ISO? Batting runs?

[KBLover]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OBP? ISO? Batting runs?

OBP: .312
Batting Runs: 2.150
ISO: .167