MLB Off-Topic

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Poptime Leaderboard.

Generally it is understood that 75% stolen base percentage is the break even point for SB's. So unless you are tanking anything less than that you are hurting the team.

I'm getting pretty data-driven with my softball team. Every week they have to attempt and steal five bases, and their times are being captured at 120 FPS by a video camera. I go back and get their times down to 1/100 sec accuracy, and log them.

Assuming their times are normalized (which they tend to be), I work out z-scores on a spreadsheet and look at their probability of success in stealing a base against a certain time (in softball, players can't leave the bag until the pitcher releases the ball, so I generally start it on pitcher release). If they have more than 75% probability of beating that P-2B time, they have a green light (there is an extra 0.2+ seconds for a tag to be applied if the throw isn't on the money).

If they have more than a 50% success probability, they can expect I might send them in a certain situation when called upon. Anybody else would only be in those other situations like hit-and-run, full counts (even less than two outs if a walk still moves them over), etc. The players kind of get into it, too. They keep trying to improve their average time and are working better off pitcher release because of it.

I do the same on the other side with catchers, and I can get their exchange times as well when on camera. It kind of makes for a fun endeavor, but it takes a hell of a long time to do.

[reyes the roof]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I miss stealing. You'd think one manager would buck the trend of station to station baseball. But it's a copycat league for some reason.

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The Royals in 2015 somewhat bucked the trend of today’s style of baseball. They weren’t the 80s Cardinals in terms of stolen bases but they had good speed and always put the ball in play. I wish more teams would take that approach

[Jolly Roger]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I miss stealing too, there's just something fun about it.

More generally, I miss the ball-in-play style of baseball where games were closer to 2 hours than 3. Well, I guess I don't "miss" it since I wasn't around for it, but that would be ideal in my opinion. I really love baseball, but I don't want to watch anything for 3 hours.

[Majingir]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I miss stealing too, there's just something fun about it.

More generally, I miss the ball-in-play style of baseball where games were closer to 2 hours than 3. Well, I guess I don't "miss" it since I wasn't around for it, but that would be ideal in my opinion. I really love baseball, but I don't want to watch anything for 3 hours.

Which is part of the "baseball purist" complaints I find funny. When MLB is trying to improve pace of play, people are like "stop changing the game!", well...until the late 80s, games took under 2 hours and 40 minutes. So why are games now over 3 hours long?

Until 2011, there was only 1 season in MLB history with 9 inning game lengths over 2 hours and 55 minutes and that was in 2000. We've had 9 straight seasons since with the length over that.

Starting games at 7:05 with game lengths over 3 hours means average game is ending around 10:10pm local time.

Compare that to basketball and hockey where games end around 9:40 local time.

[kehlis]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Which is part of the "baseball purist" complaints I find funny. When MLB is trying to improve pace of play, people are like "stop changing the game!", well...until the late 80s, games took under 2 hours and 40 minutes. So why are games now over 3 hours long?

Until 2011, there was only 1 season in MLB history with 9 inning game lengths over 2 hours and 55 minutes and that was in 2000. We've had 9 straight seasons since with the length over that.

Starting games at 7:05 with game lengths over 3 hours means average game is ending around 10:10pm local time.

Compare that to basketball and hockey where games end around 9:40 local time.

If thirty minutes is the difference between someone liking a sport or not liking it, that’s on them.

[steelerfan]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

If thirty minutes is the difference between someone liking a sport or not liking it, that’s on them.

Is it though?

30 minutes x 162 is 81 hours. That's one hour more than the amount of time most Americans get for vacation in a year. I think everyone can agree that they wouldn't want to spend their entire vacation watching video of guys scratching their nuts or adjusting their batting gloves.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a big proponent of shortening the games. It would be nice but it won't make or break the sport for me. However, I can understand if someone feels differently and decides they'll do something else with the invaluable time above ground that they get.

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[Majingir]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

If thirty minutes is the difference between someone liking a sport or not liking it, that’s on them.

30 minutes PER GAME, most of which is dead ball time.

That is a lot. I could understand 5 or 10 minutes being something minimal, but 30 minutes is a long time for unnecessary stuff.

Fans going to a ballpark where the commute let's say is 30-60 minutes. A game ending around 10:10pm means they're not getting home until closer to 11pm, and likely do have to get up for work or school by around 7am. A game ending around 9:40 means you'll be home closer to 10:30, which does sound much more appealing to people.

And for people watching on TV, knowing the game will be done before 10 is a big deal too. Theres a reason 8-10pm is considered primetime TV and 10-11pm isn't.

[Jolly Roger]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Which is part of the "baseball purist" complaints I find funny. When MLB is trying to improve pace of play, people are like "stop changing the game!", well...until the late 80s, games took under 2 hours and 40 minutes. So why are games now over 3 hours long?

I don't mind the pace of play initiatives personally. Actually, I wish they'd deaden the ball some to make line drive swings more appealing again, so guys will swing and put the ball in play more. That might shorten the at bats and, thus, shorten the games.

Maybe chicks used to dig the long ball, but when everyone can hit them and there's 3 or 4 of them a game, it's just a boring waste of time.

Heck, come to think of it, I even want games to end in ties after 9 innings in the regular season. Just none of this "man on 2nd" crap.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I don't mind the pace of play initiatives personally. Actually, I wish they'd deaden the ball some to make line drive swings more appealing again, so guys will swing and put the ball in play more. That might shorten the at bats and, thus, shorten the games.

Maybe chicks used to dig the long ball, but when everyone can hit them and there's 3 or 4 of them a game, it's just a boring waste of time.

Heck, come to think of it, I even want games to end in ties after 9 innings in the regular season. Just none of this "man on 2nd" crap.

I'm trying to "like" your more recent posts, but then you add in things that I can't agree with, so I can't like the whole thing haha!

If people want to know where I stand on length of games (as if you didn't already know), sometimes I even hope that the team I root for blows their lead just to see more baseball, especially at the park. I want more time there, not less. That's just me, though.

And yes, less long ball. I hate this juiced ball. Probably because Bonds didn't get to play in an era with it (or the moved in fence at Oracle Park), haha.

[reyes the roof]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Which is part of the "baseball purist" complaints I find funny. When MLB is trying to improve pace of play, people are like "stop changing the game!", well...until the late 80s, games took under 2 hours and 40 minutes. So why are games now over 3 hours long?

Until 2011, there was only 1 season in MLB history with 9 inning game lengths over 2 hours and 55 minutes and that was in 2000. We've had 9 straight seasons since with the length over that.

My guess for why games are so much longer would be the emphasis on driving up pitch counts and the ever increasing amount of pitching changes

[Majingir]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

My guess for why games are so much longer would be the emphasis on driving up pitch counts and the ever increasing amount of pitching changes

Pitchers taking longer to throw and batters stepping out of the box and calling time is a big reason too.

Remember a Mark Buehrle game only took about 2 hours and 20 minutes. And that's with ONLY him pitching quicker for 7 or so innings a game. That's about 25 minutes shorter than the average game back then.

[Jolly Roger]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I'm trying to "like" your more recent posts, but then you add in things that I can't agree with, so I can't like the whole thing haha!

[Jolly Roger]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

My guess for why games are so much longer would be the emphasis on driving up pitch counts and the ever increasing amount of pitching changes

Yeah, and I like the 3-batter minimum rule, even though I generally don't like arbitrary rules like this. But I mean, if you can't get 3 guys out, you shouldn't be in the Majors as a pitcher. But without the rule, the managers are just going to use every ounce of what's at their disposal to get an advantage. While I can respect that approach given the position they're in, it's agonizing to watch. They should at least make the reliever who just came in start pitching immediately. I mean, he's warm already. He's done this before.

Bring back the reliever carts!!!

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Yeah, and I like the 3-batter minimum rule, even though I generally don't like arbitrary rules like this. But I mean, if you can't get 3 guys out, you shouldn't be in the Majors as a pitcher. But without the rule, the managers are just going to use every ounce of what's at their disposal to get an advantage. While I can respect that approach given the position they're in, it's agonizing to watch. They should at least make the reliever who just came in start pitching immediately. I mean, he's warm already. He's done this before.

Bring back the reliever carts!!!

I don't know how an MLB bullpen mound differs from actually being out there, but growing up I can definitely say that I needed to get my pitches done again one more time out on the actual mound. Everything feels different once you're out there, at least for me. Don't forget the catcher wouldn't mind seeing what your ball moves like again, just for old time's sake.

I know what you mean, though. Maybe if they replace more than one pitcher in an inning, then they restrict it from happening as a consequence. Not sure.

[reyes the roof]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Yeah, and I like the 3-batter minimum rule, even though I generally don't like arbitrary rules like this. But I mean, if you can't get 3 guys out, you shouldn't be in the Majors as a pitcher. But without the rule, the managers are just going to use every ounce of what's at their disposal to get an advantage. While I can respect that approach given the position they're in, it's agonizing to watch. They should at least make the reliever who just came in start pitching immediately. I mean, he's warm already. He's done this before.

Bring back the reliever carts!!!

Yeah I don’t like the specialist relievers that can only pitch to batters on one side of the plate so I don’t mind that rule, I just wish the rule weren’t necessary