MLB Off-Topic

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I think you mean he signed with Seattle...and that wasn't that long ago (2004-2005 offseason). I always thought he was a really good player, but really didn't think he'd be a HOF'r. He has continued to play at a high level for at least 6-7 years than I would have expected.

You are correct. That's what I was thinking about after he had a monster walk year with LA.

[TripleCrown9]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I think you mean he signed with Seattle...and that wasn't that long ago (2004-2005 offseason). I always thought he was a really good player, but really didn't think he'd be a HOF'r. He has continued to play at a high level for at least 6-7 years than I would have expected.

I mean, the Dodgers gave him a $23,000 signing bonus when he was 15 years old.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I always hear commentators say in response to a borderline pitch going for/against the pitcher/hitter something like: "There's a big difference between starting 0-1 versus 1-0." Though they tend to say this for most all pitch counts.

So, I ask you: which count pair boasts the biggest difference in advantage-pitcher versus advantage-hitter? Which boasts the least?

0-1 vs. 1-0
0-2 vs. 1-1
1-1 vs. 2-0
1-2 vs. 2-1
2-1 vs. 3-0
2-2 vs. 3-1

Currently as I think about it, I say that the biggest difference is 0-1 vs. 1-0, and the smallest difference is 2-1 vs. 3-0.

[kehlis]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

In a pitchers mind, 0-2 vs. 1-1.

In a hitters mind, 2-0 vs. 1-1.

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

In a pitchers mind, 0-2 vs. 1-1.

In a hitters mind, 2-0 vs. 1-1.

Didn't even really think about the mindsets being separate. I guess I just think too much as a hitter and not about a pitcher. Good point.

I would say that my whole at-bat long-term changes in that 1-0 vs. 0-1, but going into that next pitch I can see why 2-0 vs. 1-1 is a big difference as well.

[Sportsforever]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I always hear commentators say in response to a borderline pitch going for/against the pitcher/hitter something like: "There's a big difference between starting 0-1 versus 1-0." Though they tend to say this for most all pitch counts.

So, I ask you: which count pair boasts the biggest difference in advantage-pitcher versus advantage-hitter? Which boasts the least?

0-1 vs. 1-0
0-2 vs. 1-1
1-1 vs. 2-0
1-2 vs. 2-1
2-1 vs. 3-0
2-2 vs. 3-1

Currently as I think about it, I say that the biggest difference is 0-1 vs. 1-0, and the smallest difference is 2-1 vs. 3-0.

This data is available...based on 2017 data, here you go:

0-1 (223/268/359) vs 1-0 (272/387/470) OPS diff = +230
0-2 (164/195/254) vs 1-1 (236/311/393) OPS diff = +255
1-1 (236/311/393) vs 2-0 (290/509/514) OPS diff = +319
1-2 (173/227/278) vs 2-1 (254/398/437) OPS diff = +329
2-1 (254/398/437) vs 3-0 (292/739/516) OPS diff = +420
2-2 (193/296/317) vs 3-1 (275/585/489) OPS diff = +461

Interesting pattern...the deeper into the count you are, the more impactful the borderline call is. Based on the numbers, I'd say your hunch was wrong!

[Blzer]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

This data is available...based on 2017 data, here you go:

0-1 (223/268/359) vs 1-0 (272/387/470) OPS diff = +230
0-2 (164/195/254) vs 1-1 (236/311/393) OPS diff = +255
1-1 (236/311/393) vs 2-0 (290/509/514) OPS diff = +319
1-2 (173/227/278) vs 2-1 (254/398/437) OPS diff = +329
2-1 (254/398/437) vs 3-0 (292/739/516) OPS diff = +420
2-2 (193/296/317) vs 3-1 (275/585/489) OPS diff = +461

Interesting pattern...the deeper into the count you are, the more impactful the borderline call is. Based on the numbers, I'd say your hunch was wrong!

Very interesting indeed, though that doesn't necessarily account for mentality. However, is this OPS on a ball "in play" on that count alone, or after that count?

[kehlis]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I don't think that stat really correctly re-creates in the moment mentality.

Unless there is a way to differentiate situation in the game, runners on base, I don't know if would use that as a basis for the question that was asked.

For example, I would argue that even if a pitcher falls behind 2-0 with a runner on second and an open base at first, they still have the upper hand especially if their team has a lead.

[Jr.]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I don't think that stat really correctly re-creates in the moment mentality.

Unless there is a way to differentiate situation in the game, runners on base, I don't know if would use that as a basis for the question that was asked.

For example, I would argue that even if a pitcher falls behind 2-0 with a runner on second and an open base at first, they still have the upper hand especially if their team has a lead.

But wouldn't you still agree that the hitter has a better chance of hitting the ball hard on a 2-0 count rather than a 1-1 count even in that situation?

Obviously it's a pitch-around situation, but if that's the case, the hitter is probably walking anyway so the count doesn't really matter. If it's not, though, the hitter is in a much better position 2-0 than 1-1.

[kehlis]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

But wouldn't you still agree that the hitter has a better chance of hitting the ball hard on a 2-0 count rather than a 1-1 count even in that situation?

Obviously it's a pitch-around situation, but if that's the case, the hitter is probably walking anyway so the count doesn't really matter. If it's not, though, the hitter is in a much better position 2-0 than 1-1.

I would agree with that but to my earlier post, I would argue that context and scenario plays a role.

If you're down 10 runs and get a 2-0 count, you're probably trying to hit a homerun which could in turn make you jumpy and over aggressive.

[Sportsforever]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Very interesting indeed, though that doesn't necessarily account for mentality. However, is this OPS on a ball "in play" on that count alone, or after that count?

No, this is OPS AFTER that count (you can get it ON THAT count as well). I figured that was what you were after...what's the difference in starting a PA at 1-0 vs 0-1, etc. That is what this shows...

[Sportsforever]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I would agree with that but to my earlier post, I would argue that context and scenario plays a role.

If you're down 10 runs and get a 2-0 count, you're probably trying to hit a homerun which could in turn make you jumpy and over aggressive.

Why would you be trying to the a home run down 10 runs? If I have a 2-0 count, I'm trying to get on base...my home run doesn't matter much in a 10 run game. At least that would be my mentality.

[Jr.]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

I would agree with that but to my earlier post, I would argue that context and scenario plays a role.

If you're down 10 runs and get a 2-0 count, you're probably trying to hit a homerun which could in turn make you jumpy and over aggressive.

But again, you're probably trying to do that in the entire AB, so any possible count the mindset would likely be similar. So that should even out any possible differences.

[kehlis]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Why would you be trying to the a home run down 10 runs? If I have a 2-0 count, I'm trying to get on base...my home run doesn't matter much in a 10 run game. At least that would be my mentality.

Exaggeration to just go after the argument I'm going for.


My main argument is that a 1-1 count in a tie game in the first inning isn't always treated the same way by either the batter or the pitcher as a 1-1 count in the 9th inning of a tied game.

[Sportsforever]

Re: MLB Off-Topic

Exaggeration to just go after the argument I'm going for.


My main argument is that a 1-1 count in a tie game in the first inning isn't always treated the same way by either the batter or the pitcher as a 1-1 count in the 9th inning of a tied game.

Ah...I follow. That is true...but the aggregate stats at least tell us what the different counts lead to overall.