2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

[SPTO]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Alex Anthopoulos is an absolutely pathetic GM and must be fired before he can do any more damage.

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Apparently his hands are tied as I was listening to Bob Elliott on PTS and he said that other GMs are saying the Jays have no money to take on salary.

Anywho the Jays got Danny Valencia, not a bad pick up in that they need someone who can hit off lefties.

[AC]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Apparently his hands are tied as I was listening to Bob Elliott on PTS and he said that other GMs are saying the Jays have no money to take on salary.

Anywho the Jays got Danny Valencia, not a bad pick up in that they need someone who can hit off lefties.

This has nothing to do with money. We had one catcher above replacement level. His name was Erik Kratz. Now, we have precisely 0 catchers above replacement level.

So if we're gonna deal our only good catcher, you're gonna get something good back, right?

Or, you can get an unregressed platoon bat back who's probably only going to be decent against lefties, which Kratz easily could have done. And throw in an arm. Sure.

Anthopoulos has no understanding of platoons or framing. Andrew Tinnish and Farhan Zaidi are two candidates that this team had better consider. Or just give it to LaCava the super scout and send pro scouts everywhere and can the data department. Yeah.

[PhilliesFan13]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

I can't believe a team gave up 2 players for a journeyman.

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Dodgers acquire Darwin Barney

The Dodgers had to answer the Dan Uggla acquisition somehow...

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

The Dodgers had to answer the Dan Uggla acquisition somehow...

Except Uggla can't field or hit. Barney can play defense and that's all we need him for in late innings.

[SPTO]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

This has nothing to do with money. We had one catcher above replacement level. His name was Erik Kratz. Now, we have precisely 0 catchers above replacement level.

I didn't realize Navarro wasn't above replacement level...I don't like the fact that Kratz was sent off to KC because I love the way he calls the game. I'd have been much happier if this was Hendriks for Valencia straight up. It's still not the greatest move in the world but least we don't give up too much.

I did laugh my *** off when Pat and Buck spoke about the trade and they made Valencia sound like this great guy who will be a savior.

SMH

[TeixeiraFanatic]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

I didn't realize Navarro wasn't above replacement level...I don't like the fact that Kratz was sent off to KC because I love the way he calls the game. I'd have been much happier if this was Hendriks for Valencia straight up. It's still not the greatest move in the world but least we don't give up too much.

I did laugh my *** off when Pat and Buck spoke about the trade and they made Valencia sound like this great guy who will be a savior.

SMH

I mean he could be a solid addition if Toronto is smart about his use. The guy hits lefties really well but is downright awful against RHP. Pair him with Francisco at 3rd and you have two guys that can produce at a high level against opposite hand pitching. Seems like an alright trade to me. Hendriks hasn't showed anything at the ML level and Kratz is a decent backup catcher. George Kottaras is better and he was just designated for assignment by my Cards. Toronto could claim him if they wanted.

Edit: AC, where are you getting that Navarro isn't above replacement level and that Kratz is? Both Bbref and Fangraphs have Navarro as a 1 win player and Kratz at replacement level. And saying you'd rather have Kratz facing LHP is also baffling considering he has a .607 OPS and 59 RC+ against them in his career.

[AC]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

TF, the thing about your entire post is that it's based off of unregressed splits. Platoon splits need to be regressed to the mean before they hold any predictive value. So Kratz will likely regress to closer to an average bat against LHP, as will Valencia.

And also, for one, fWAR, which I find FAR better, has Kratz at 0.0 and Navarro at 0.7. However, fWAR does not include framing, where Kratz gets his value. Luckily, Baseball Prospectus provides the numbers. Since Kratz hasn't been getting playing time cause Andrew Tinnish is the only one who understands framing, we'll adjust for framing and then extrapolate to 450 PA:

Kratz: 2.1 adjusted fWAR/450
Navarro: -1.5 adjusted fWAR/450

That would be a solid 3.5 win swing.

So, in English, the Jays could have won around 3.5 more games. That isn't an exact number cause there are a number of other things to adjust for, so please just take the point in general as opposed to an absolute number. Framing is a real skill. You have to wait a few months to be able to look at batting average as accurate, right? You only have to wait 8 games to look at framing. It's a real skill and very important. That's why the Pirates have Martin, the Brewers gave Lucroy so much of a chance, and the Rays went after the Hanigan/Molina tandem. And the Jays are pissing that away, basically.

My friend is a data analyst for the Jays who is very upset about the trade. He put it simply:

Kratz true value = $75m
Kratz market value = $2m

EDIT: Explanation for this is pretty simple. I'll paraphrase.

Over a full season, Kratz's blocking, hitting, general defense, etc adds up to like 1.0-1.5 wins. Throw in some framing (that's been adjusted through all sorts of math) and you have 2.5-3.0 wins. His game calling is, as sketchy the data we have is, probably worth 0.5-1 wins (passes the smell test though, pretty sure Happ requested Kratz as his personal catcher). This adds up to 4-5.5 wins. Considering how controllable he is for the next 4 years, if you put his wins this year at 4.0, then decrease by 0.5, at 7.5m per win (should probably just per inflation on this for accuracy - up by 5% per year), that's pretty easily over $80m.

In English, that means that Kratz is very good at defense, passable with the bat, calls a good game, frames exceptionally well, and is cost controlled, making him a valuable player at a good price that will provide lots of surplus value. Shame KC's probably gonna misuse him.

Kratz is a lot more valuable than Navarro.

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Indians are ready to move Cabrera and Masterson according to MLBTR

The Astros are willing to trade Cosart, Keuchal, and McHugh, but for MLB-ready offense of players only.

[AC]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Edit: AC, where are you getting that Navarro isn't above replacement level and that Kratz is

I went ahead and ran the regressions (the piece will be posted at 9:30 AM on a different site tomorrow). Valencia's regressed to a .344 wOBA and Kratz a .317 wOBA. When you see the amount of value Kratz generates from his framing, though... you're gonna see why I'm so upset about this trade, lol.

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

The Dodgers contacted the Phillies about Cole Hamels and were told the Phillies want Seager, Pederson, and Urias for Hamels. Dodgers said no way to that framework.

Pirates are now in on Jon Lester and could work a deal with Josh Bell as the centerpiece.

Bob Nightingale wrote that the Rays feel they could trade David Price to the Cardinals and pry away Tavares, Shelby Miller, and a 2015 1st round compensation pick.

[AC]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Lol, did I not specifically say the Dodgers would say hell to the no on that?

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Lol, did I not specifically say the Dodgers would say hell to the no on that?

Yes you did. I didn't disagree with you either. I'm a Dodgers fan and there is no way I'd want to give all those guys up for Hamels. Ruben Amaro is just on crack trying to sell high on players that aren't even worth that kind of return.

[AC]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

Yes you did. I didn't disagree with you either. I'm a Dodgers fan and there is no way I'd want to give all those guys up for Hamels. Ruben Amaro is just on crack trying to sell high on players that aren't even worth that kind of return.

You're a Dodgers fan? Yeah, no, you guys definitely shouldn't do that. Horrible offer.

[ShowTyme15]

Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread

You're a Dodgers fan? Yeah, no, you guys definitely shouldn't do that. Horrible offer.

Yessir been a Dodgers fan my entire life.