Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
I'm surprised Dusty didn't make him their 6th inning guy...
I'm surprised Dusty didn't make him their 6th inning guy...
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Cincinnati Reds University of Kentucky Cincinnati Bengals
@GoReds1994 -
Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
Good road trip. At a bare minimum, I always want them to return home having won more than they lost and, hopefully, at least split each series. They accomplished that. Great job of getting some W's against three teams with winning records. Hopefully that will continue to build confidence to where they feel they can beat anybody. They need to rack up a bunch of W's with this next stretch of 16 games. Hopefully they can take 3 of 4 from the Braves. Then the next 12 are against Colorado, Pittsburgh, Houston, and Pittsburgh again. I want to see at least 8 wins out of those 12.MLB: Cincinnati Reds
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals
NCAA Hoops: Xavier Musketeers
NCAA Football: Miami Hurricanes
NHL: Calgary Flames
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." - Edmund Burke
"The wisest men follow their own direction." - EuripidesComment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
Everyone always says he makes too much money to be a reliever which is just wrong and funny.
First he doesnt really make that much. Did you know his salary for this year is only $2 million? Now he does get a roster bonus of $1.5 million every November 1st that he is on the team but he really doesnt make that much money. His whole contract if he meets every roster bonus he as is only worth $30 million for 6 years. I know $30 million is a ton of money but for a stud baseball pitcher it is nothing. Matt Cain is a career .500 pitcher and just signed an extension that pays him $22.5 million per year, now that is alot of money.
Compared to most good pitchers Chapman doesnt make much.
So to say he needs to start because they gave him all that money is just wrong.
He really does make set up money and that was what he was doing.ND Season Ticket Holder since '72.Comment
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MLB: Cincinnati Reds
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals
NCAA Hoops: Xavier Musketeers
NCAA Football: Miami Hurricanes
NHL: Calgary Flames
"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." - Edmund Burke
"The wisest men follow their own direction." - EuripidesComment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
I don't care how much money he makes...he doesn't need to be doing stupid **** like this...
As for the game tonight...GROVE CITY, Ohio -- Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Aroldis Chapman was arrested after he was caught driving 93 miles per hour in Grove City early Monday, according to police.
Police said Chapman, 24, was pulled over for speeding in a black 2010 Mercedes S63 on Interstate 71 North near Interstate 270 at about 12:42 a.m.
Chapman was arrested after the officer discovered he had a suspended Kentucky driver's license, according to a police report.
Chapman was cited for speeding and driving under suspension. He was released after posting bond.
A court date is scheduled for June 6.
"We are aware of the situation," Reds director of media relations Rob Butcher said.
Leake was brilliant tonight. When you're #5 starter can give you 8 innings like that, things are looking up. And did I mention he hit a homer too?
And Sean Marshall of all people got the last out.Comment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
And this article sums up my feelings on the "move" to make Chapman closer...
The era of Aroldis Chapman closing for the Reds is here. Like all Reds fans, I thoroughly enjoyed watching Chapman secure the last three outs today against the Yankees. But I can’t abide by the discouraging decision that put him there.
It’s a short-sighted move and borne from disregard or ignorance of modern analytics.
1. Sean Marshall has been great this year (really). Sean Marshall is pitching more than well enough to keep his job as closer. He has the thirteenth highest strikeout rate (13.19 K/9) and the ninth best strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.0 K/BB) in all baseball. That’s this year and doesn’t take into account blowing away Robinson Cano on three pitches today. That’s elite stuff. His track record at getting important outs is longer than anyone else’s in the bullpen.
When you remove luck, Marshall and Chapman have pitched equally well this year. Chapman has a better K/9 but Marshall’s rate is also extraordinary. Marshall has a lower walk rate (1.88 vs. 2.95) and superior ground ball percentage (60% vs. 41%) than Chapman.
The main difference between the two has been luck. Advanced metrics offers statistics that measure luck – Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), home runs as a percentage of fly balls (HR/FB%) and stranded runners (LOB%) are three. Marshall has the second highest BABIP of all 349 pitchers in the major leagues. His HR/FB% and LOB% are also both extremely high.
What’s important for fans (and organizations) to understand is that all three of these factors are largely out of the pitcher’s control. One statistic that evaluates pitchers and removes these luck factors is called “expected fielding independent pitching” (xFIP) which is calibrated to the same scale as traditional ERA.
xFIP – Chapman (1.43), Marshall (1.53).
Sean Marshall’s xFIP is lower than any other current closer in the major leagues.
If an organization is strongly committed to incorporating modern analytics into their decision-making, they would evaluate pitchers based on the parts of their performance they can control, not luck.
2. Starters >> Closers. Starters pitch 180-200 innings per year instead of 60-70. Closers enter many games with two or three runs leads, sometimes against the weakest part of the other team’s order. In those situations, research shows almost any pitcher can be effective.
My favorite statistic that demonstrates the relative unimportance of closers concerns Mariano Rivera. It’s pretty much uncontested that Rivera is the greatest closer of all time. From 1997, when Rivera became the Yankees closer, to 2008, the Yankees won 97.3% (!) of all games they entered the ninth inning with a lead. So obviously, having a lock-down closer makes a huge difference. Right?
Consider this: From 1951-62 (another 11-year period of dominance for the Yankees, in the pre-closer era, when many pitchers finished games for teams), the Yankees winning percentage when they entered the ninth inning with a lead — 97.3%.
Surprising, but revealing.
The Reds have other pitchers besides Chapman who could be the closer. Chapman has pitched the best so far, but both Logan Ondrusek and Jose Arredondo have pitched brilliantly all year. They are also more accomplished than Chapman from the standpoint of pitching multiple days in a row.
Closers — at their best — simply don’t help a team nearly as much as a starting pitcher. In his 17 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera averaged 2.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Drew Stubbs and Mat Latos have averaged more than that. Rivera has posted four seasons with 3 or more WAR. Mat Latos has already achieved that twice.
The move to the closer role dramatically reduces Chapman’s value to the team. He’ll pitch mostly when the team is already ahead, in situations where other pitchers could essentially fill the same role. Modern analytics again, make this clear.
3. Mismanaging Chapman, Part III. Moving Chapman to the closer role is probably the only decision that could actually worsen the organization’s mismanagement of Chapman’s talent.
As Dusty Baker’s closer, Chapman will pitch even fewer innings than he does now. So far, Sean Marshall has been used less than every other member of the bullpen, including Alfredo Simon. Last year, Coco Cordero threw 69 innings. Travis Wood, Edinson Volquez, even Dontrelle Willis threw more.
The move solidifies Chapman’s role in the bullpen, unfortunately moving him farther away from joining the starting rotation. At the start of next year he’ll be half way through his 6-year contract with the Reds having contributed a total of only 130 innings. To make matters worse, if the Reds do move him to the rotation in 2013, he’ll be on an innings limit.
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Moving Marshall out of the closer role after only fourteen, largely successful innings, gives off a whiff of panic that is surprising for Dusty Baker, who usually sticks with his closers through thick and thin. What happened to the manager who didn’t waver an inch in his support for Cordero even once in four years?
Maybe Baker is simply seizing a way to cement Chapman’s presence in the bullpen. That’s a struggle he’s waged with GM Walt Jocketty for at least a year.
Installing Aroldis Chapman as the closer is a rash decision based on obsolete metrics and flawed reasoning. It’s the opposite of smart, well-informed baseball decision-making. Use whatever adjectives you want for that.
My friend Mike Maffie, who helped me with this post, points out: As the thinking of baseball moves forward, the Reds move backward. Dustyball is the opposite of Moneyball.
The movie ‘Dustyball’ would undoubtedly be shot with a Super 8 camera on black-and-white film.Comment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
This is really random, but I thought it was pretty interesting.
So I'm reading the comments section of a blog entry by Joe Posnanski (sports writer, columnist guy, really good), and someone mentioned that Votto has only hit 1 infield popup since the start of 2010. I thought they were crazy, that just can't be right.
So I go look it up. Sure enough, he's only hit one in the last 2+ years.
That's just ridiculous.Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists AssociationComment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
Yes it is. You'd think he would have at least accidentally hit a couple more than that.
It really says something about the quality of contact that he makes. Even more impressive when you consider he isn't just a slappy hitter looking to make quality contact, he's taking big swings with the intention of hitting for power as well.Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists AssociationComment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
It could be worse, they could be the Pirates.
They have the worst strikeout rate and the worst walk rate in the entire league.Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists AssociationComment
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Individuality: Always remember that you are unique. Just like everybody else.
Fan of:Indiana HoosiersCincinnati RedsJoey LoganoComment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
Hey, St. Louis: Here come the Reds
For a few brief moments on Monday night, it appeared the Cincinnati Reds would slide past the St. Louis Cardinals into first place in the NL Central. The Reds had defeated the Braves 4-1 behind a brilliant effort from Mike Leake and four solo home runs. The Padres were leading the Cardinals late in their game, until Tyler Greene's two-run homer in the eighth lifted the Cards to a 4-3 victory.
Still ... half a game. Half a game. Cardinals fans have to be wondering how this happened.
Considering the hot starts many of the Cardinals jumped out to -- Rafael Furcal, Jon Jay, Carlos Beltran and three-fifths of the rotation in Kyle Lohse, Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook -- the Cardinals can only look back and wonder why they're not five or six games in front of the Reds. After all, St. Louis' run differential is +58; Cincinnati's is only +3.
I'd call it an opportunity squandered, because now the Reds are breathing down their necks and they're probably here to stay. Hey, there has to be at least two good teams in the NL Central, right?
With all the talk about who should be closing in Cincinnati, the biggest issue with the pitching staff has been Leake. He entered winless in seven starts -- at 0-5, he joined Chris Volstad and Francisco Liriano as the only pitchers without a win and at least five decisions -- but wasn't just reeling from a lack of run support. He'd allowed at least three runs each start, had a 6.21 ERA, a .309 batting average allowed and just 21 strikeouts in 37.2 innings.
Leake walked Martin Prado with one out in the first but struck out Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla. In the second, Juan Francisco homered, but Leake then retired 14 in a row before Uggla doubled in the seventh. He finished with eight innings, just those two hits and six K's. For Leake, his biggest issue before Monday night had been an ineffective changeup, usually a good pitch for him. In 2010-2011, opponents hit .252 off his changeup but they were hitting .529 in at-bats ending with a changeup in 2012.
He appeared to compensate by throwing more cutters against the Braves -- 28 out of 98, the second-most he's thrown in a start this season. Of course, it helped that he was ahead of hitters much of the night, throwing just two pitches on three-ball counts; in his previous three starts, he'd thrown 31 pitches with three balls. Pitching is easier when you don't have to groove a pitch to avoid a walk.
Leake also sparked the Cincinnati offense in the fourth inning, when he homered off his friend Mike Minor (Minor was the seventh pick in the 2009 draft, Leake the eighth, and the two were teammates on Team USA). Zack Cozart and Drew Stubbs followed with home runs to give the Reds back-to-back-to-back blasts. While it was Leake's first career blast, he's a legitimate threat at the plate with a .271 career average.
The four solo shots do highlight a big problem with the Reds' offense, however. Outside of Joey Votto this lineup is completely hacktastic -- working the count is not exactly a disease that has spread from Votto to everyone else. Even with Votto's MLB-leading 40 walks, the Reds rank just 11th in the NL in free passes, and despite playing in a hitter-friendly home park, their .697 team OPS is tied for 10th in the league. After Votto, Jay Bruce is second on the team with 12 walks -- quadruple that total and you have a guy on pace for 48. Home run boys Cozart and Stubbs can flip the occasional long ball, but they've combined for just 22 walks and 86 strikeouts. Brandon Phillips has just eight walks. Votto gets walked a lot because he often comes up with nobody on base. (Memo to Dusty Baker: Try moving Bruce in front of Votto. Just consider it, please.)
Somewhere, Joe Morgan cringes.
When the Reds won the NL Central in 2010, they led the NL in runs scored. That team led the NL with 188 home runs and a .272 average while ranking ninth in walks. This offense doesn't show signs of matching the firepower of that lineup, not with Votto, Bruce and catcher Ryan Hanigan the only three sporting an OBP over .300.
That means the Reds are going to be in a lot of low-scoring games, which means the bullpen will prove key, especially since Leake's outing was only the 12th in 41 games where the Reds' starter has gone at least seven innings.
Which, inevitably, gets us back to Baker and how he handles the relief crew. It's certainly interesting that in the two days since Aroldis Chapman was "named" the team's closer that exiled closer Sean Marshall picked up the two most important outs.
On Sunday, with the Reds leading the Yankees 3-2 and a runner on with no outs in the eighth, Marshall retired Robinson Cano. Chapman came on for the easy save and faced the bottom of the Yankees lineup after the Reds had extended their lead to 5-2.
On Monday, with Chapman unavailable after pitching four times in five days, Marshall again delivered after Jose Arredondo walked Uggla and Brian McCann with two outs in the ninth. Brought on to face Jason Heyward, Marshall fell behind with a slider, threw two of his big-breaking curveballs for a called strike and a swinging strike, saw Heyward foul off another curve, threw a fastball down low, and then got Heyward to fly to right on another curve.
For all the consternation over who gets the capital C designation, it shouldn't really matter. Marshall is a very good reliever. Chapman has been a great one. Arredondo and Logan Ondrusek are solid right-handers and rookie J.J. Hoover has looked impressive. What Baker should avoid doing is getting trapped into saving Chapman for the ninth inning only -- which means fewer innings and fewer moments with the game on the line. Chapman is the guy you want in there when you need a big strikeout with runners on base in the eighth inning. Marshall, Arrendodo and Ondrusek can close out the three-run leads. Use Chapman and his bullpen mates wisely, and the Reds can stay in this race even with a mediocre offense.
As for the Cardinals, that hot start is a thing of the past. The injuries are mounting and that run differential has gone to waste. We're a quarter of the way into the season and we have a race.
Considering these two teams have some strong dislike for each other going back a couple years, it should be a fun summer in Central Land.Comment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
Whoever wrote this article must be A. Sean Marshall's dad or B. Sean Marshall's agent.
Anyone who has watched Chapman and Marshall pitch all year and think only luck is the differene between the two pitchers doesnt know much about baseball. Marshall has been very shaky on 4 recent outings. Chapman has been lights out all year. This article is very weird.ND Season Ticket Holder since '72.Comment
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Re: "This one belongs to Reds fans" Official 2012 Cincinnati Reds
A pitcher who has a high K rate (13.19 K/9) and has hitters putting 60% of balls in play on the ground is an elite reliever. The problem for Marshall is that those grounders are finding holes (.480 avg on grounders). His line drive rates and groundball-to-flyball ratios are in line with what he has done the past couple seasons.
Chapman's value is not as a closer (unless Dusty plans on mixing in some 2 inning saves...I doubt it). You really want your best reliever in there getting the tough outs in the 7th and 8th innings...not 3 outs in the 9th against the bottom of the order in a 3 run game.Comment
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