2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[PhantomPain]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I'm responding to you and the others that quoted that post. There's really no major front office in baseball that still thinks this way. Every major baseball team employs statisticians, and those that don't listen to them fall behind more often than not.

Baseball games are won by maximizing the production you get from every single out. Votto maximizes his outs by making them at a very low rate. Votto basically has a perfect plate approach. He doesn't swing at pitches outside the zone. He swings at most stuff inside the zone. The reason he doesn't get a bunch of RBI is because the guy in the 2-hole in Cincinnati usually SUCKS at getting on base and he has no protection, so he just takes his walks. The reason he is a good baseball player is specifically because of his ability to take walks, which forces pitchers to throw him strikes. Then, when he swings, he makes good contact, as shown by the numbers earlier (BABIP, ISO, etc.)

That means Votto scored the 8th most runs in baseball last year by walking. Brandon Phillips had 100 RBI by Votto walking, and that's without even being a good hitter last year (yes, Phillips wasn't good). Jay Bruce had 100 RBI last year by Votto walking. You want to hand all those back? Be my guest, and you'll be fired as a GM faster than you can walk in the door. Thank goodness Votto doesn't listen to the fans, and thank goodness the front office doesn't listen to the fans, either. It's hard enough not having a lot of money as a franchise; you're setting yourself behind even more if you don't use modern baseball theory.

If you want to complain about this team, complain about the lack of production from left field, short stop, third base, or yes, even second base. All of those positions were offensive duds this year. But of all things, don't complain about Votto.

And to the guy that responded about Bailey: I would have switched up the rotation to allow him to pitch. Now, maybe they did that for Latos and Latos was injured. Well, Bailey already had four days of rest anyway, and if I knew about Latos' injury I would have switched up the rotation to allow him to pitch. I'd rather have a guy that's actually been taking the mound since the All-Star break than home field advantage.

Funny thing is I agree with most of what you say. For me, and I think most people that takes any issue with Votto, is the contract he is receiving. I don't know, maybe this will be a new trend in baseball. Where you give some of the largest contracts to people for being good at getting on base. But if not, and if Votto continues to do exactly what he did this year, then he should be the highest paid 2 hole hitter.

With that said, I posted a link to an article where Votto says himself he isn't happy with his year. He was specifically talking about his defense but he mentions his offense as well.

My honest, truest thought on Votto is that he is likely THE best batter in baseball. Not hitter, batter. He has, as you said, a pretty much perfect approach to batting. I think, as Votto says, that with an offseason of not healing his knee but working out regularly, will allow him to continue his approach but not let as many perfect strikes go by. Which will equate to more hits, home runs and RBI's, while keeping his OBP at a high rate as he has always done.

But I still stand by my point that if his approach continues to be high OBP and not so much in producing runs (outside of his own since he gets on base a lot), then he is better suited to hit 2nd. And if he is going to be a 2 hole hitter, then he is getting too much money for it. Nothing on Votto, he only accepted the contract as anyone would. That fault would fall on upper management.

Regardless, I have as much faith in Votto as a player to always be a producer in many facets as I have anyone ever in baseball. I played for 18 years and am now 40 watching the Reds (and Phillies with Schmidt) for decades. I don't say that lightly.

EDITED: I also agree that the Reds NEED to get some protection for Votto. I know it won't happen but I would give up quite a bit for the Marlins Stanton. Not the farm, but he would be worth a good trade and I think he would provide as much power as anyone. Plus he is right handed and would fill a corner outfield spot. Not that it matters, I am just dreaming.

[CaseIH]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I'm responding to you and the others that quoted that post. There's really no major front office in baseball that still thinks this way. Every major baseball team employs statisticians, and those that don't listen to them fall behind more often than not.

Baseball games are won by maximizing the production you get from every single out. Votto maximizes his outs by making them at a very low rate. Votto basically has a perfect plate approach. He doesn't swing at pitches outside the zone. He swings at most stuff inside the zone. The reason he doesn't get a bunch of RBI is because the guy in the 2-hole in Cincinnati usually SUCKS at getting on base and he has no protection, so he just takes his walks. The reason he is a good baseball player is specifically because of his ability to take walks, which forces pitchers to throw him strikes. Then, when he swings, he makes good contact, as shown by the numbers earlier (BABIP, ISO, etc.)

That means Votto scored the 8th most runs in baseball last year by walking. Brandon Phillips had 100 RBI by Votto walking, and that's without even being a good hitter last year (yes, Phillips wasn't good). Jay Bruce had 100 RBI last year by Votto walking. You want to hand all those back? Be my guest, and you'll be fired as a GM faster than you can walk in the door. Thank goodness Votto doesn't listen to the fans, and thank goodness the front office doesn't listen to the fans, either. It's hard enough not having a lot of money as a franchise; you're setting yourself behind even more if you don't use modern baseball theory.

If you want to complain about this team, complain about the lack of production from left field, short stop, third base, or yes, even second base. All of those positions were offensive duds this year. But of all things, don't complain about Votto.

And to the guy that responded about Bailey: I would have switched up the rotation to allow him to pitch. Now, maybe they did that for Latos and Latos was injured. Well, Bailey already had four days of rest anyway, and if I knew about Latos' injury I would have switched up the rotation to allow him to pitch. I'd rather have a guy that's actually been taking the mound since the All-Star break than home field advantage.

While Votto indeed had a down year by his normal standards you are right on point with the RBI#'s being down. Hard to judge Votto on RBI's when for a good part of the year Cozart was killing opportunuties for Votto hitting 2nd, and for that matter anyone else who hit 2nd for us. When you dont have 2 good OBP guys in the top 2 holes it hurt the #3 guy. We fixed the leadoff spot with Choo this yr, but the 2 hole was so bad for us it negated the RBI's for Votto.
Votto did have his struggles as he has always been very clutch with RISP and also with 2 outs this yr with 2 outs he was not good. He also had a lot of ball that he didnt get squared up this yr wich is very unusual for Votto, what normally would have been a double was a single for Votto.
I look for him to bounce back next yr as 1 person mention part of his issues this yr might have been because he was rehabbing all winter instead of being able to work on his game.

[jasontoddwhitt]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I love how people keep talking about "he's making too much to be a #2 hitter" when analytical analysis would show you that the three most important spots in the batting order are the lead off spot, the second spot, and the cleanup spot.

Managers are starting to realize that the "By the book" concept of having a good bat-control guy who can lay down a sacrifice or hit one behind the runner is a poor use of the second spot in the lineup.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/08/14/batting-second-is-trending-for-all-stars/2653079/

[redsrule]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

EDITED: I also agree that the Reds NEED to get some protection for Votto. I know it won't happen but I would give up quite a bit for the Marlins Stanton. Not the farm, but he would be worth a good trade and I think he would provide as much power as anyone. Plus he is right handed and would fill a corner outfield spot. Not that it matters, I am just dreaming.

Stanton would hit 50 home runs here. Would be the perfect guy to sandwich between Votto and Bruce. Could you imagine a lineup this year of Choo-Votto-Stanton-Bruce? That would have been incredible.
Regarding the trade aspect of it, Lance McCallister posted around the deadline that if the Reds were going to try and get him, it would probably take Hamilton and Stephenson, their best 2 prospects. I wouldn't do that at all. If they could get him for a package headlined by Chapman, I would be all for it though. Our bullpen was great all year, and I have no doubts someone could step in for Chapman and the production wouldn't drop off much.

[ESPNdeportes]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

My sense is the reds would have to give up more than Hamilton and Stephenson for Stanton.

If those two were the headliners, I'd do that in a heartbeat. Hamilton is a beast on base but must greatly improve at the plate to fulfill his potential- obviously this can happen but its no guarantee.

found this article from trade deadline:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1716198-cincinnati-reds-why-a-giancarlo-stanton-trade-will-never-happen

[HustlinOwl]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

My sense is the reds would have to give up more than Hamilton and Stephenson for Stanton.

If those two were the headliners, I'd do that in a heartbeat. Hamilton is a beast on base but must greatly improve at the plate to fulfill his potential- obviously this can happen but its no guarantee.

found this article from trade deadline:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...l-never-happen

Would like to see them move Bailey, there is no way this team can afford to extend both Bailey and Latos. Trade Bailey now and get a RH bat already

[redsrule]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Bailey and Chapman for Stanton, totally fair deal!

Would like to see them move Bailey, there is no way this team can afford to extend both Bailey and Latos. Trade Bailey now and get a RH bat already

I do agree though, if they can get a good bat for Bailey and/or a couple prospects they should do it.

[HustlinOwl]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Bailey and Chapman for Stanton, totally fair deal!




I do agree though, if they can get a good bat for Bailey and/or a couple prospects they should do it.

Trumbo would be nice in LF

[PhantomPain]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Trumbo would be nice in LF

his mid-30's hr totals would likely climb to around 40 at GABP and his 100+ RBI's would be great, but I'm not sure we can take on a high strike out, low OBP slugger, when we have Bruce that already strikes out a ton himself.

[jake44np]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

What are your thoughts on the firing? iirc you were a Dusty supporter in the past, but I haven't seen you post much of late.

TLR has said he isn't managing anymore already, but hypothetically if he became the manager I wonder how it would work with guys like Cueto and Phillips.

I honestly think it was time for Dusty to go.
When 90% of your fanbase no longer suppports the manager its time for him to go.
I think he did a really good job with a very limited team in the regular season. He basically had 4 decent hitters and 4 very below average hitters he had to run out there everyday. Just read an article by Buster Olney outlining that stat wise no other team in baseball was more dependant on 4 hitters than the Reds.
Dont kid yourself this team was not set up to succeed in the postseason this year and that is Walt's fault not Dusty's.
The reason i think it was time for Dusty to go tho is because this team does not have a leader at all! Since they dont have a player that is a leader they must hire a manager that is going to be a leader. They must hire a manager that is not going to be afraid to get in guys faces when they arent hustling or when they do something wrong.
It makes me laugh when i hear some of the names being thrown out there. Joe Morgan!!! Lol He would be more of a players manager than Dusty, and he has never managed on any level!

[PhantomPain]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I honestly think it was time for Dusty to go.
When 90% of your fanbase no longer suppports the manager its time for him to go.
I think he did a really good job with a very limited team in the regular season. He basically had 4 decent hitters and 4 very below average hitters he had to run out there everyday. Just read an article by Buster Olney outlining that stat wise no other team in baseball was more dependant on 4 hitters than the Reds.
Dont kid yourself this team was not set up to succeed in the postseason this year and that is Walt's fault not Dusty's.
The reason i think it was time for Dusty to go tho is because this team does not have a leader at all! Since they dont have a player that is a leader they must hire a manager that is going to be a leader. They must hire a manager that is not going to be afraid to get in guys faces when they arent hustling or when they do something wrong.
It makes me laugh when i hear some of the names being thrown out there. Joe Morgan!!! Lol He would be more of a players manager than Dusty, and he has never managed on any level!

Joe Morgan...no lol

What do you guys think of Wally Backman? I kind of remember him with the Mets, but don't know squat about him or his "baggage" and will be doing some digging on that. But this article makes a pretty compelling case for him. Again, don't know anything about him though:

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20131007/SPT04/310070138/Backman-could-Piniella-like-manager-Reds-need

[jake44np]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Backman would get on the players if they were not giving 100% that is for sure.
Below is a very good read on the manager search.

http://blogredmachine.com/2013/10/07/next-reds-manager/

[Son of Sam99]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I don't think anyone besides the players is really to sad to see Dusty go. But to belabor the point even more, this article really sums it all up nicely;

http://www.getsportsinfo.com/all-sports/mlb/the-real-reason-for-bakers-firing/

As for the new guy it has absolutely GOT to be someone with managerial experience in the majors in my mind. I love Brian Price and think he would do a good job but I'd like to see the front office get a little more creative than that, plus I believe we have him signed anyway so no one should be thinking he won't be in the Reds dugout in 2014 one way or another.

Finally, useful numbers spreadsheet style:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html

[SlimKibbles]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Backman would get on the players if they were not giving 100% that is for sure.
Below is a very good read on the manager search.

http://blogredmachine.com/2013/10/07/next-reds-manager/

Little skeptical on bringing Barry back to manage the Reds but I'd take any one of the rest of those guys.

I don't think the Reds have much of an analytics department. I've checked into that in the past and couldn't tell from their website which people, if any, served in that role. It was very easy to tell that with other clubs though. I'm not sure Jocketty embraces analytics all that much.

[CaseIH]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Backman would get on the players if they were not giving 100% that is for sure.
Below is a very good read on the manager search.

http://blogredmachine.com/2013/10/07/next-reds-manager/

Thanks for that link, very good article. I think all the guys that was mentioned outside the organization would all be good fits. With Brian Price wanting to manage my guess is he gets it so not to lose him with what all he has done with the pitching staff.
I definitley do not want Rigglequitter as manager and that would make me sick to my stomach if that happened. He quit on his team in Washington, and we have enough guys now that dont always seem to motivated on the team, so whats a guy like Riggleman going to instill in them that was any different than Dusty. Some thought Dusty was poor at leading a team, he would look like Sparky Anderson compared to Riggleman,lol.
Always was a big fan of Larkin, but Im not sure if he is right for this team right now anyway, alhtough if he was chosen I would be OK with it.
Im sure Walt will make the best choice for this team to get them over the hump. I just want Brook Jacoby fired and I will be happier than a fat kid in a chocolate factory