Honestly, take advantage of the POE often and make adjustments every timeout. I started making adjustments anytime xxx event happens xxx times. If you get too many fouls, I start playing conservation defense. If I pick off a couple of steals, I start playing physical defense. If I miss three jumpers in a row, I place emphasis on pick and roll offense. If I see that your team is giving up fouls, I start attacking the basket. If a specific player nails a couple of tough shots over me, then I change my defensive settings for that particular player.
I'm telling you. Constantly changing your strategy for each situation works. Plus, I call plays every 3-5 possessions on top of the other changes to prevent the opponent AI from adapting to me. Gone are the days where people could just set everything to one setting (deny, tight, trap, etc), play hero ball, not call plays, and still be successful.
Admittedly, I rarely called plays on past 2K games and exclusively relied on ball defense for my success. I was one of those people who left everything on auto, and just went with the flow of the game. Now, 2KSports wants us to be more cerebral about the game, and I can respect and appreciate that.
At this point, I'm looking forward to this fourth patch and getting Paul George back, so I can feel 100% competitive in online games.
EDIT: As for the third quarter runs... My theory is that the programming code recognizes that you did (insert strategy) a certain percentage to be successful in the first half, and I think your opponent's AI "blitzes" you strategy in the second half. As humans, we suddenly get frustrated with the dynamic change in the situation, and we subconsciously may lose focus.
Think of yourself as the quarterback for your team. Either you'll get frustrated and play into the blitz, or you can keep your composure and change your gameplay accordingly.
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