The Biggest NBA storylines ahead of a fascinating season
The 2024-25 NBA season may be the most interesting we’ve had in many years. In putting together this article, the storylines I put on the backburner or had to fold into other storylines to keep this list to 5 could have made up the top storylines in a previous season. From the juggernaut Bucks to the league’s new villains in Oklahoma City, drama and intrigue exists all over the league. So what are the top 5 stories from this author’s perspective?
#1 – Will Giannis and Milwaukee complete the three-peat?
Milwaukee has 3 titles in the last 5 years, Giannis has 5 MVPs (including 4 straight), and it feels like the Bucks are inevitable. The East is certainly better this year, but are there any contenders to knocking off the Bucks? We thought it might be Boston last year, but we saw them easily dispatched in the playoffs the last 2 seasons. The last team to beat the Bucks in the East is the Nets and they were average last year and just sent Kevin Durant to the Thunder.
So who will challenge them? Are they going to easily dominate the East again? It doesn’t feel like it. They may still win the East, but it feels closer than it has been in a few years. Let’s start by looking at their roster.
There are no doubts about Giannis – and we’ll talk more about his legacy later – but there are doubts around him. Khris Middleton is on the cusp of being too old to be an impact player. Is this the year he falls off? Clint Capela and Giannis have surprisingly made up the best “twin towers” this league has seen in 30 or 40 years. But is Capela still an All-Star? If his athleticism starts to slow down, can he still provide the same value for the Bucks?
Donte DiVincenzo and Matt Forney are good players, but they aren’t All-Stars. Are they going to fill the gaps if Middleton’s scoring drops off? Maybe Forney can, but he’s already looking to fill the shoes of Eric Bledsoe, who looks like he may not even be a rotation piece this year. The Bucks 6th man is journeyman Harry Giles III, which is an interesting development, and the rest of their bench is largely young guys or unproven veterans. Maybe it all doesn’t matter because Giannis is just that good, but we’re a bit concerned.
The Bucks starting 5 seems unstoppable.
Looking at the rest of the East, two primary contenders show up: Boston and Philadelphia. Fans might try to make an argument for Charlotte, Toronto, or Detroit, but they haven’t shown themselves to be serious contenders. We’re focusing on the teams with the proven talent to win a championship and the personnel to challenge Milwaukee.
Boston has largely the same team as last year, which is a very good thing. Bruno Radja is one of the league’s top point guards and Tatum and Lillard are well-rounded scorers. They have scoring, size, and defense at every position in their rotation and have taken offense at those that say that Denver or Oklahoma City has the most talented team in the league. The reason to doubt Boston is because they’ve never shown they can do it. Will Damian Lillard coming off the bench ultimately be successful? Can Tatum be the #1 guy on a champion? Do they have anyone who can slow down Giannis enough? They think the answer to all those questions is yes, but it’s been a resounding “no” the last 2 seasons as the Celtics have won 1 playoff game and lost 8 against Milwaukee the past two postseasons.
The Bucks and 76ers have a bit of playoff history during this historic Milwaukee run, but it’s a few years old. That’s largely due to the 76ers absolutely falling in the playoffs. Here’s their last 5 postseasons:
2020: 2nd seed, lost in 4 games to Milwaukee in conference finals
2021: 2nd seed, lost in 6 games to Milwaukee in conference finals
2022: 3rd seed, lost in 6 games to Milwaukee in conference finals
2023: 2nd seed, swept in round 1 by the Raptors
2024: 4th seed, lost in 7 games to Atlanta in round 1
Despite all that, Philadelphia is feeling like this is their year. John Collins is a fantastic complementary piece to Embiid and they have as much talent as anyone in the East. If this isn’t their year, fans will have to wonder when it ever will be, but they have good reasons to be optimistic.
Simmons and Embiid have full familiarity and chemistry with each other. Can it finally lead to postseason success?
Bonus: Giannis’ Legacy Checkin
We mentioned Giannis’ legacy earlier. This is a great time to take a look at his place in the pyramid of greats. Using Bill Simmons’ all-time list as the basis for this, let’s see where the Greek Freak would slot in. First, the easy part:
So that puts him somewhere between 5 and 10. Let’s look at his resume and see how it stacks up against the players currently ranked 5 through 9: Wilt, Bird, Magic, Duncan, and Kobe. Through 11 seasons, Antetokounmpo has won 3 titles, 5 MVPs, 2 DPoYs, and is averaging 24, 10, and 5 for his career. Here’s how that ranks against those other 5.
Author's Note: after publishing I realized I accidentally omitted Steph Curry from this conversation. He's right there with Giannis fighting for a spot in the top 10.
After comparing the numbers, if Giannis retired right now he’d stay at #10. However, as a 29 year old, he’s probably got at least 6 more great-to-good seasons left in him. He’s not ready to pass Kobe, but a few more titles or MVPs and we may be having that conversation.
Giannis has been literally and figuratively head and shoulders above the league the last 6 seasons.
#2 - Who the heck will win the West?
It truly is the wild West this year. Denver, Golden State, and Oklahoma City are strong favorites in Vegas, with all three of them listed as +600 in Vegas to win the NBA title, but there’s a reasonably sized contingent of fans and pundits that are advocating for the Timberwolves, Pelicans, Rockets, and Mavericks. There are fun conversations to be had about those 4 teams but clarity is a good thing and we’re going to focus on the top 3 contenders in this article as this author doesn’t believe anyone outside of those 3 will make it out of the West.
We’ll start with the reigning Western Conference champions: the Denver Nuggets. The upside of this team is undeniable. With a starting frontcourt of Jokic (6’11”), Bol Bol (7’3”), and Jonathan Isaac (6’10”), opponents are not going to find any space in the paint. On the offensive side, Jokic, Bol, Bradley Beal, and Jamal Murray all regularly score 20+ points a game and if you shut down 1, you have three more to pick up the slack.
So what’s the problem with this team? There are 2 of them. The first is depth. The Nuggets’ trade for Ivica Zubac last year helped with this, and they made a concerted effort to improve the bench this year as well with the additions of Malik Monk, T.J. McConnell, and Jrue Holiday. It may not be perfect, but those three, 3rd year SF Bryan Wade, 2nd year PG Mac Nance, and Cam Johnson provide a better supporting cast than last year.
The second problem hasn’t been solved: Mike Malone. Many observers feel that Denver made the Finals last year in spite of him and every time that the Denver brass is close to firing him, he goes on a great run and saves his job. Critics point to his inability to run a system that consistently uses his team’s strengths on offense and defense. Instead it feels like it’s a set of very talented players playing a pickup game. The team is at their best when running through Jokic, but far too often it feels like Beal needs the ball or Bol wants to set up in the paint.
Denver’s starting 5 is as talented as they come (not pictured, Nikola Jokic).
The Golden State Warriors won a title 4 seasons ago and defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in that series. Their detractors will say they are too old, their proponents will point to the extreme consistency. They had bad injury luck last postseason and many expected them to have beaten Denver in the Western Conference Finals if DeAndre Ayton wouldn’t have gotten injured. Despite being age 36, Steph Curry is still one of the best 5 players in the NBA and DeAndre Ayton is a perfect complementary piece to him. Jarrett Pressley has emerged as the 3rd most important player on the team, providing great leadership for the second unit and showing he is able to play capably alongside Steph.
The concerns come in after those top 3. Jimmy Butler (age 35) and Klay Thompson (age 34) are both slowing down far more than Steph Curry is and are not the defensive forces they once were. Players 6-10 on this roster are Tyler Lydon, Kelly Oubre Jr, Daniel Theis, Evan Carlisle, and Davis Bertans. They are all competent players in their own right, but don’t make anyone too excited.
But maybe none of that matters because when Steph, Ayton, and Pressley are right, all this team needs is role players.
As Curry and Ayton go, so go the Warriors. The two make a fearsome duo.
This leaves us with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the team that everyone has been talking about. They gave up an unbelievable amount of talent this offseason, but are probably a better team than last year. Gone are Domantas Sabonis, TJ Warren, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dan Vignale, and Milos Jeffers. The fact that they are a better team speaks not only to the acquisition of LeBron and KD, but also to how good of a job the front office had done building this roster as this is a very deep, talented, and well-rounded team.
Around their big two stars, they have:
…and several more players on their deep bench that ends with little Bronny James buried on the bottom. But he’s not forgotten: he’s the whole reason LeBron didn’t retire and forced his way out of LA.
So what are the problems with this team? Don’t they seem perfect? Maybe. LeBron and KD have been slowing down offensively for several years now, with both hitting career lows in scoring and seeing their teams struggle in the postseason. If they can’t carry the scoring burden for this team, it’s not clear anyone has. Each of those role players are very nice - every team in the NBA would want these guys - but they aren’t a top 2 scoring option on a good team. If this Thunder team struggles, it’s going to be because they can’t get enough points.
Let’s go back to our original question: who the heck is going to win the West? It’s difficult, that’s why we’re asking it. But if you made me place a bet, I’d say that the Warriors make 1 last run out of the West.
It’s an image nobody ever expected: LeBron and Durant on the same team.
#3 – Will the East’s two young superstars challenge the hierarchy?
With all the focus on the Bucks and the Celtics’ superstars, it can be easy for the casual observer to forget about 2 of the most exciting young players in the league: Detroit’s Trevor Merchant and Charlotte’s Jerry Sparks. While both have had some success, it’s not hard to imagine how much higher their ceiling is given the brilliance that we’ve seen so far.
Trevor Merchant came to prominence by snatching the League’s Most Exciting Young Guard title from Ja Morant in the 2022-23 NBA season, Merchant’s third year. Coming out of Mississippi State, most draft experts had he and Kansas wing Ernesto Parkinson as 1A and 1B in the draft, claiming you couldn’t go wrong with either. Most folks predicted Parkinson going #1 overall as the Nets had that pick and already had Kyrie Irving. While the Nets can’t complain Parkinson’s impact – he was the 3rd best player on their 2022 title team – the two can’t really be compared anymore. Parkinson is settling in as a solid 3rd scorer and reasonable defender. Merchant is scoring 30 points per game and churning out near triple-doubles on a Giannis-like level.
Now entering his 5th season and having signed a huge new deal, the expectation is that the Pistons start to make deeper playoff runs. Merchant is an absolute handful, but can he elevate his teammates to win consistently in the regular season and be a true playoff threat? Marvin Bagley III’s game has certainly been elevated by playing with Merchant, but we’re still waiting for things to really click with Kevin Huerter, Andrew Wiggins, and Darrall Gosley alongside those two. None of those 3 can create their own shot, so for the Pistons to consistently get points they will need Merchant to make things happen for them.
It will take a lot for the Pistons to surpass the Celtics and 76ers, let alone challenge the Bucks, but they’ve shown they can be a top 4 team in the East. Let’s see if Merchant can make the leap and become a true top 5 player in the league.
Trevor Merchant is the most exciting young player in Detroit since Grant Hill, or even Isiah Thomas.
Jerry Sparks has not been quite as consistent or successful as Trevor Merchant, but it’s common for big men to take a little longer to adjust to the NBA. However, the 1st overall pick of the 2021 draft has shown a tantalizing skillset and he has been good enough to make an All-Star game, so it’s not like we’re talking about a disappointment here – at least when talking about Sparks.
The Hornets on the other hand have regularly disappointed. Over the last few years they’ve included Collin Sexton (now at LAC), Zach Lavine (now at BRK), Richaun Holmes (now at BRK), Lonzo Ball (now at MEM), De’Aaron Fox, and Jaren Jackson Jr in the roster. JJJ may finally change things, but the theme of this team has been “score a lot, allow even more”. They’ve struggled to stay around .500 while boasting a thrilling offense and one of the worst defenses we’ve seen in recent years.
A lot of that struggle is due to personnel. Despite the exciting talent, it’s never really fit fully together. Fox and Sparks are a good match – that’s why they are still in Charlotte. But when they also had Sexton and Ball on the roster, you had 3 point guards vying playing time and the ball. Getting rid Sexton and bringing in Lavine solved that problem and Charlotte finally shifted Ball to the 3, allowing him to be a wing playmaker. Strictly from an offensive perspective, it mostly worked. Ball was among the league leaders in assists each of the past 3 seasons. However, Lavine was never a great fit. He can shoot the lights out, but won’t play defense and tries to do a lot of what Fox already does well on offense.
Pair that with the lack of any depth in the frontcourt and no real rim protector and you had a team that looked great as a fantasy roster but didn’t bring the best out of Sparks. Charlotte is hoping they’ve finally found a winning formula: surround Sparks and Fox with defensive players who are happy to be secondary options in the offense and help space the floor. Even though giving up players like Lonzo Ball and Bobby Portis was a meaningful cost, the move to bring in JJJ should be brilliant for Charlotte. He can protect the rim as well as anyone in the league and can space the floor on offense. He doesn’t need to be a primary scorer and has playoff experience as part of that 2022 Memphis team that lost in 7 to the Nets in the Finals.
So for these 2 young stars, there’s no way the season can successful if they are in the play-in. Detroit should be expecting to push Philly and Boston for a top 3 spot, while Charlotte should be looking to grab the 4, 5, or 6 seed and winning a playoff series. We know these two have the talent to catapult their teams into the realms of contender, now we just need to see them do it.
Jerry Sparks’ talent is top tier. But he’s never tasted success in college or the pros.
#4 – Which new look team will become a serious contender?
There were major moves this offseason and the league is better and more exciting for it. The Thunder, Kings, Magic, Hornets, Grizzlies, and Knicks all feel they upgraded their rosters and are excited for the season. But there’s 3 “new look” teams that are more intriguing than the rest. They all feel they improved their teams, but public opinion is mixed on this and it’s likely that 1 or 2 of these three will flame out similarly to how Portland and Indiana did after the Lillard mega-trade. Who are these 3 teams? The New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns, and Brooklyn Nets.
All three think they have set themselves up to make playoff runs, but did they actually?
In the bayou, fans can’t believe they turned Adrian Stewart and Victor Oladipo into one of the league’s best perimeter scorers in Devin Booker. The New Orleans Pelicans have disappointed for Zion Williamson’s entire career, but somehow he’s been immune to the criticism. Now he’s gotta a running mate who may be better than him, but somebody whose teams have also been far from what has been expected. If this team doesn’t win, they’ll both be branded as losers.
What will it take for them to be more than disappointments? A top 6 finish in the West with both players making the All-Star game is likely what the target should be.
This leaves us with what might be the weirdest roster in the NBA: the Brooklyn Nets. It was just 3 seasons ago they outdueled the Milwaukee Bucks – the only Eastern team to do so in the last 5 seasons. Some of their roster looks very familiar: Kyrie Irving is still there, as is Ernesto Parkinson and former UCLA big man Stewart Mobley. But there’s a few big changes, most notably Kevin Durant. The Slim Reaper came to Brooklyn and won them a title, then saw his production drop significantly over the following 2 seasons. Enough that Brooklyn wasn’t too heartbroken to see him leave. In his place they managed to get Zach Lavine, T.J. Warren, and more. It’s a weird, but very intriguing situation in Brooklyn, and one that just might cook up some victories.
Answering the question – will any of these teams become a contender this year? My heart wants to choose the weird, wacky, and deep Nets. But ultimately, I think the East is just too tough and they won’t make an impact unless there are significant injuries elsewhere. Looking to the West, I’m going with the easy answer: New Orleans. There aren’t many duos more talented than Zion and Booker and their supporting cast is good enough to help them win 50+ games.
#5 – [Meta] How will 2K23’s sim engine change history?
We wrap up this article by breaking the 4th wall with some meta commentary. The first 5 seasons of this dynasty were run in NBA 2K20 on the Xbox. We’ve now moved the entire thing over to NBA 2K23 on the PC, spending 4 months editing faces, attributes, ratings, coaches, and uniforms to attempt to stay true to the universe that has been built around Dinko and Oggy.
NBA 2K23 is a new game. The PC is a different system than console. My ratings transition may not have been perfect. All this is going to change how things operate in the universe. One huge example was in the 2 seasons I simmed to bring the dates into sync with the universe: the Atlanta Hawks won 2 straight NBA Finals. Something about 2K23 must love Trae Young and what they have going on in Atlanta. Will that continue now? The Hawks have been disappointing in this dynasty so far, so it will be interesting.
The first 5 years, there have been a few key themes of the sim engine:
Will those things continue? Will young scoring stars like Trevor Merchant and RJ Barrett continue to put up numbers? Or will they fall off a bit? I don’t have the answers, but I’m excited to see what happens.
Please spend a few minutes to answer the annual Bulgarian Brothers survey. Your answers help shape the dynasty in a few small ways. https://forms.office.com/Pages/ResponsePage.aspx?id=DQSIkWdsW0yxEjajBLZtrQAAAAAAA AAAAAMAAII8-q9UQ09WUTJPOE1YQkpYWVZFSUhCVE1ZVUJXRC4u
The 2024-25 NBA season may be the most interesting we’ve had in many years. In putting together this article, the storylines I put on the backburner or had to fold into other storylines to keep this list to 5 could have made up the top storylines in a previous season. From the juggernaut Bucks to the league’s new villains in Oklahoma City, drama and intrigue exists all over the league. So what are the top 5 stories from this author’s perspective?
#1 – Will Giannis and Milwaukee complete the three-peat?
Milwaukee has 3 titles in the last 5 years, Giannis has 5 MVPs (including 4 straight), and it feels like the Bucks are inevitable. The East is certainly better this year, but are there any contenders to knocking off the Bucks? We thought it might be Boston last year, but we saw them easily dispatched in the playoffs the last 2 seasons. The last team to beat the Bucks in the East is the Nets and they were average last year and just sent Kevin Durant to the Thunder.
So who will challenge them? Are they going to easily dominate the East again? It doesn’t feel like it. They may still win the East, but it feels closer than it has been in a few years. Let’s start by looking at their roster.
There are no doubts about Giannis – and we’ll talk more about his legacy later – but there are doubts around him. Khris Middleton is on the cusp of being too old to be an impact player. Is this the year he falls off? Clint Capela and Giannis have surprisingly made up the best “twin towers” this league has seen in 30 or 40 years. But is Capela still an All-Star? If his athleticism starts to slow down, can he still provide the same value for the Bucks?
Donte DiVincenzo and Matt Forney are good players, but they aren’t All-Stars. Are they going to fill the gaps if Middleton’s scoring drops off? Maybe Forney can, but he’s already looking to fill the shoes of Eric Bledsoe, who looks like he may not even be a rotation piece this year. The Bucks 6th man is journeyman Harry Giles III, which is an interesting development, and the rest of their bench is largely young guys or unproven veterans. Maybe it all doesn’t matter because Giannis is just that good, but we’re a bit concerned.
The Bucks starting 5 seems unstoppable.
Looking at the rest of the East, two primary contenders show up: Boston and Philadelphia. Fans might try to make an argument for Charlotte, Toronto, or Detroit, but they haven’t shown themselves to be serious contenders. We’re focusing on the teams with the proven talent to win a championship and the personnel to challenge Milwaukee.
Boston has largely the same team as last year, which is a very good thing. Bruno Radja is one of the league’s top point guards and Tatum and Lillard are well-rounded scorers. They have scoring, size, and defense at every position in their rotation and have taken offense at those that say that Denver or Oklahoma City has the most talented team in the league. The reason to doubt Boston is because they’ve never shown they can do it. Will Damian Lillard coming off the bench ultimately be successful? Can Tatum be the #1 guy on a champion? Do they have anyone who can slow down Giannis enough? They think the answer to all those questions is yes, but it’s been a resounding “no” the last 2 seasons as the Celtics have won 1 playoff game and lost 8 against Milwaukee the past two postseasons.
Radja, Tatum, and Turner make up a formidable big three for the Celtics.
The Bucks and 76ers have a bit of playoff history during this historic Milwaukee run, but it’s a few years old. That’s largely due to the 76ers absolutely falling in the playoffs. Here’s their last 5 postseasons:
2020: 2nd seed, lost in 4 games to Milwaukee in conference finals
2021: 2nd seed, lost in 6 games to Milwaukee in conference finals
2022: 3rd seed, lost in 6 games to Milwaukee in conference finals
2023: 2nd seed, swept in round 1 by the Raptors
2024: 4th seed, lost in 7 games to Atlanta in round 1
Despite all that, Philadelphia is feeling like this is their year. John Collins is a fantastic complementary piece to Embiid and they have as much talent as anyone in the East. If this isn’t their year, fans will have to wonder when it ever will be, but they have good reasons to be optimistic.
Simmons and Embiid have full familiarity and chemistry with each other. Can it finally lead to postseason success?
Bonus: Giannis’ Legacy Checkin
We mentioned Giannis’ legacy earlier. This is a great time to take a look at his place in the pyramid of greats. Using Bill Simmons’ all-time list as the basis for this, let’s see where the Greek Freak would slot in. First, the easy part:
- He’s at least #10, jumping ahead of Jerry West and Oscar Robertson
- He’s not in the top 4 as he hasn’t surpassed Jordan, LeBron, Russell, or Kareem yet
So that puts him somewhere between 5 and 10. Let’s look at his resume and see how it stacks up against the players currently ranked 5 through 9: Wilt, Bird, Magic, Duncan, and Kobe. Through 11 seasons, Antetokounmpo has won 3 titles, 5 MVPs, 2 DPoYs, and is averaging 24, 10, and 5 for his career. Here’s how that ranks against those other 5.
Author's Note: after publishing I realized I accidentally omitted Steph Curry from this conversation. He's right there with Giannis fighting for a spot in the top 10.
| Player | Years | Titles | MVPs | All-NBAs | All-Defenses | All-Stars |
| Wilt Chamberlain | 15 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| Larry Bird | 13 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 12 |
| Magic Johnson | 13 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| Tim Duncan | 19 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Kobe Bryant | 20 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 11 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
After comparing the numbers, if Giannis retired right now he’d stay at #10. However, as a 29 year old, he’s probably got at least 6 more great-to-good seasons left in him. He’s not ready to pass Kobe, but a few more titles or MVPs and we may be having that conversation.
#2 - Who the heck will win the West?
It truly is the wild West this year. Denver, Golden State, and Oklahoma City are strong favorites in Vegas, with all three of them listed as +600 in Vegas to win the NBA title, but there’s a reasonably sized contingent of fans and pundits that are advocating for the Timberwolves, Pelicans, Rockets, and Mavericks. There are fun conversations to be had about those 4 teams but clarity is a good thing and we’re going to focus on the top 3 contenders in this article as this author doesn’t believe anyone outside of those 3 will make it out of the West.
We’ll start with the reigning Western Conference champions: the Denver Nuggets. The upside of this team is undeniable. With a starting frontcourt of Jokic (6’11”), Bol Bol (7’3”), and Jonathan Isaac (6’10”), opponents are not going to find any space in the paint. On the offensive side, Jokic, Bol, Bradley Beal, and Jamal Murray all regularly score 20+ points a game and if you shut down 1, you have three more to pick up the slack.
So what’s the problem with this team? There are 2 of them. The first is depth. The Nuggets’ trade for Ivica Zubac last year helped with this, and they made a concerted effort to improve the bench this year as well with the additions of Malik Monk, T.J. McConnell, and Jrue Holiday. It may not be perfect, but those three, 3rd year SF Bryan Wade, 2nd year PG Mac Nance, and Cam Johnson provide a better supporting cast than last year.
The second problem hasn’t been solved: Mike Malone. Many observers feel that Denver made the Finals last year in spite of him and every time that the Denver brass is close to firing him, he goes on a great run and saves his job. Critics point to his inability to run a system that consistently uses his team’s strengths on offense and defense. Instead it feels like it’s a set of very talented players playing a pickup game. The team is at their best when running through Jokic, but far too often it feels like Beal needs the ball or Bol wants to set up in the paint.
Denver’s starting 5 is as talented as they come (not pictured, Nikola Jokic).
The Golden State Warriors won a title 4 seasons ago and defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in that series. Their detractors will say they are too old, their proponents will point to the extreme consistency. They had bad injury luck last postseason and many expected them to have beaten Denver in the Western Conference Finals if DeAndre Ayton wouldn’t have gotten injured. Despite being age 36, Steph Curry is still one of the best 5 players in the NBA and DeAndre Ayton is a perfect complementary piece to him. Jarrett Pressley has emerged as the 3rd most important player on the team, providing great leadership for the second unit and showing he is able to play capably alongside Steph.
The concerns come in after those top 3. Jimmy Butler (age 35) and Klay Thompson (age 34) are both slowing down far more than Steph Curry is and are not the defensive forces they once were. Players 6-10 on this roster are Tyler Lydon, Kelly Oubre Jr, Daniel Theis, Evan Carlisle, and Davis Bertans. They are all competent players in their own right, but don’t make anyone too excited.
But maybe none of that matters because when Steph, Ayton, and Pressley are right, all this team needs is role players.
As Curry and Ayton go, so go the Warriors. The two make a fearsome duo.
This leaves us with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the team that everyone has been talking about. They gave up an unbelievable amount of talent this offseason, but are probably a better team than last year. Gone are Domantas Sabonis, TJ Warren, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dan Vignale, and Milos Jeffers. The fact that they are a better team speaks not only to the acquisition of LeBron and KD, but also to how good of a job the front office had done building this roster as this is a very deep, talented, and well-rounded team.
Around their big two stars, they have:
- a very good rim protector and rim runner in Jarrett Allen
- Three-and-D extraordinaire Vytas Kowalczuk
- Draymond-lite in Dana Bright
- A dollar-store version of Ben Simmons in Seth Valsin
- Former NCAA National Player of the Year Sidney Dunnington as a backup 5
…and several more players on their deep bench that ends with little Bronny James buried on the bottom. But he’s not forgotten: he’s the whole reason LeBron didn’t retire and forced his way out of LA.
So what are the problems with this team? Don’t they seem perfect? Maybe. LeBron and KD have been slowing down offensively for several years now, with both hitting career lows in scoring and seeing their teams struggle in the postseason. If they can’t carry the scoring burden for this team, it’s not clear anyone has. Each of those role players are very nice - every team in the NBA would want these guys - but they aren’t a top 2 scoring option on a good team. If this Thunder team struggles, it’s going to be because they can’t get enough points.
Let’s go back to our original question: who the heck is going to win the West? It’s difficult, that’s why we’re asking it. But if you made me place a bet, I’d say that the Warriors make 1 last run out of the West.
It’s an image nobody ever expected: LeBron and Durant on the same team.
With all the focus on the Bucks and the Celtics’ superstars, it can be easy for the casual observer to forget about 2 of the most exciting young players in the league: Detroit’s Trevor Merchant and Charlotte’s Jerry Sparks. While both have had some success, it’s not hard to imagine how much higher their ceiling is given the brilliance that we’ve seen so far.
Trevor Merchant came to prominence by snatching the League’s Most Exciting Young Guard title from Ja Morant in the 2022-23 NBA season, Merchant’s third year. Coming out of Mississippi State, most draft experts had he and Kansas wing Ernesto Parkinson as 1A and 1B in the draft, claiming you couldn’t go wrong with either. Most folks predicted Parkinson going #1 overall as the Nets had that pick and already had Kyrie Irving. While the Nets can’t complain Parkinson’s impact – he was the 3rd best player on their 2022 title team – the two can’t really be compared anymore. Parkinson is settling in as a solid 3rd scorer and reasonable defender. Merchant is scoring 30 points per game and churning out near triple-doubles on a Giannis-like level.
Now entering his 5th season and having signed a huge new deal, the expectation is that the Pistons start to make deeper playoff runs. Merchant is an absolute handful, but can he elevate his teammates to win consistently in the regular season and be a true playoff threat? Marvin Bagley III’s game has certainly been elevated by playing with Merchant, but we’re still waiting for things to really click with Kevin Huerter, Andrew Wiggins, and Darrall Gosley alongside those two. None of those 3 can create their own shot, so for the Pistons to consistently get points they will need Merchant to make things happen for them.
It will take a lot for the Pistons to surpass the Celtics and 76ers, let alone challenge the Bucks, but they’ve shown they can be a top 4 team in the East. Let’s see if Merchant can make the leap and become a true top 5 player in the league.
Trevor Merchant is the most exciting young player in Detroit since Grant Hill, or even Isiah Thomas.
Jerry Sparks has not been quite as consistent or successful as Trevor Merchant, but it’s common for big men to take a little longer to adjust to the NBA. However, the 1st overall pick of the 2021 draft has shown a tantalizing skillset and he has been good enough to make an All-Star game, so it’s not like we’re talking about a disappointment here – at least when talking about Sparks.
The Hornets on the other hand have regularly disappointed. Over the last few years they’ve included Collin Sexton (now at LAC), Zach Lavine (now at BRK), Richaun Holmes (now at BRK), Lonzo Ball (now at MEM), De’Aaron Fox, and Jaren Jackson Jr in the roster. JJJ may finally change things, but the theme of this team has been “score a lot, allow even more”. They’ve struggled to stay around .500 while boasting a thrilling offense and one of the worst defenses we’ve seen in recent years.
A lot of that struggle is due to personnel. Despite the exciting talent, it’s never really fit fully together. Fox and Sparks are a good match – that’s why they are still in Charlotte. But when they also had Sexton and Ball on the roster, you had 3 point guards vying playing time and the ball. Getting rid Sexton and bringing in Lavine solved that problem and Charlotte finally shifted Ball to the 3, allowing him to be a wing playmaker. Strictly from an offensive perspective, it mostly worked. Ball was among the league leaders in assists each of the past 3 seasons. However, Lavine was never a great fit. He can shoot the lights out, but won’t play defense and tries to do a lot of what Fox already does well on offense.
Pair that with the lack of any depth in the frontcourt and no real rim protector and you had a team that looked great as a fantasy roster but didn’t bring the best out of Sparks. Charlotte is hoping they’ve finally found a winning formula: surround Sparks and Fox with defensive players who are happy to be secondary options in the offense and help space the floor. Even though giving up players like Lonzo Ball and Bobby Portis was a meaningful cost, the move to bring in JJJ should be brilliant for Charlotte. He can protect the rim as well as anyone in the league and can space the floor on offense. He doesn’t need to be a primary scorer and has playoff experience as part of that 2022 Memphis team that lost in 7 to the Nets in the Finals.
So for these 2 young stars, there’s no way the season can successful if they are in the play-in. Detroit should be expecting to push Philly and Boston for a top 3 spot, while Charlotte should be looking to grab the 4, 5, or 6 seed and winning a playoff series. We know these two have the talent to catapult their teams into the realms of contender, now we just need to see them do it.
Jerry Sparks’ talent is top tier. But he’s never tasted success in college or the pros.
#4 – Which new look team will become a serious contender?
There were major moves this offseason and the league is better and more exciting for it. The Thunder, Kings, Magic, Hornets, Grizzlies, and Knicks all feel they upgraded their rosters and are excited for the season. But there’s 3 “new look” teams that are more intriguing than the rest. They all feel they improved their teams, but public opinion is mixed on this and it’s likely that 1 or 2 of these three will flame out similarly to how Portland and Indiana did after the Lillard mega-trade. Who are these 3 teams? The New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns, and Brooklyn Nets.
All three think they have set themselves up to make playoff runs, but did they actually?
In the bayou, fans can’t believe they turned Adrian Stewart and Victor Oladipo into one of the league’s best perimeter scorers in Devin Booker. The New Orleans Pelicans have disappointed for Zion Williamson’s entire career, but somehow he’s been immune to the criticism. Now he’s gotta a running mate who may be better than him, but somebody whose teams have also been far from what has been expected. If this team doesn’t win, they’ll both be branded as losers.
What will it take for them to be more than disappointments? A top 6 finish in the West with both players making the All-Star game is likely what the target should be.
Whether it’s a new team or their same team, it’s a new situation for all 6 of these stars.
Out in the desert, the Phoenix Suns have a new rival and someone to compare themselves to: the Pelicans. Devin Booker forced his way out of town, Dejounte Murray (now of the Magic) said that 3 months in Phoenix was enough for him to realize he wanted nothing to do with that locker room, and polarizing locker room personalities like Draymond Green have been released. It’s a fresh start in Phoenix with Bam Adebayo at the center and a cadre of promising and complementary pieces around him.This leaves us with what might be the weirdest roster in the NBA: the Brooklyn Nets. It was just 3 seasons ago they outdueled the Milwaukee Bucks – the only Eastern team to do so in the last 5 seasons. Some of their roster looks very familiar: Kyrie Irving is still there, as is Ernesto Parkinson and former UCLA big man Stewart Mobley. But there’s a few big changes, most notably Kevin Durant. The Slim Reaper came to Brooklyn and won them a title, then saw his production drop significantly over the following 2 seasons. Enough that Brooklyn wasn’t too heartbroken to see him leave. In his place they managed to get Zach Lavine, T.J. Warren, and more. It’s a weird, but very intriguing situation in Brooklyn, and one that just might cook up some victories.
Answering the question – will any of these teams become a contender this year? My heart wants to choose the weird, wacky, and deep Nets. But ultimately, I think the East is just too tough and they won’t make an impact unless there are significant injuries elsewhere. Looking to the West, I’m going with the easy answer: New Orleans. There aren’t many duos more talented than Zion and Booker and their supporting cast is good enough to help them win 50+ games.
#5 – [Meta] How will 2K23’s sim engine change history?
We wrap up this article by breaking the 4th wall with some meta commentary. The first 5 seasons of this dynasty were run in NBA 2K20 on the Xbox. We’ve now moved the entire thing over to NBA 2K23 on the PC, spending 4 months editing faces, attributes, ratings, coaches, and uniforms to attempt to stay true to the universe that has been built around Dinko and Oggy.
NBA 2K23 is a new game. The PC is a different system than console. My ratings transition may not have been perfect. All this is going to change how things operate in the universe. One huge example was in the 2 seasons I simmed to bring the dates into sync with the universe: the Atlanta Hawks won 2 straight NBA Finals. Something about 2K23 must love Trae Young and what they have going on in Atlanta. Will that continue now? The Hawks have been disappointing in this dynasty so far, so it will be interesting.
The first 5 years, there have been a few key themes of the sim engine:
- It loves Giannis and the Bucks. He’s won 4 straight MVPs, they’ve made 4/5 Finals and won 3 of them. Only once have they not had the best record in the NBA in that stretch.
- LeBron is not a winner. The Lakers have been middle of the playoff pack or worse many years and has disappointed in every single playoffs but one.
- Super teams usually don’t work. LeBron, Davis, and Paul George. Kawhi, Ingram, and co on the Clippers. Luka, Porzingis, and Drummond. Fox, Lavine, Ball, and Sparks in Charlotte. None of them have won. Most have missed the playoffs at least once. The Radja, Tatum, and Lillard Celtics have been somewhat successful. The only counter-example is the Warriors since adding Jimmy Butler and DeAndre Ayton. They won the 2021 title over the Bucks and have been contenders every year.
Will those things continue? Will young scoring stars like Trevor Merchant and RJ Barrett continue to put up numbers? Or will they fall off a bit? I don’t have the answers, but I’m excited to see what happens.
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