CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[ImTellinTim]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think college can get dramatically cheaper with online classes, although there is probably some up front cost to make it more widespread, but I think colleges could do well to expand on this.

We would still need some campus interactions, like labs and such, but costs can be dropped.

But K-12 is another beast. Online learning is still struggling, and the costs to expand and improve would be large, and probably never cheaper.

I am the CFO at a small community college.

Short answer. No.

A vast majority of a college's expenses are salary. The same number or more sections will need to be taught, due to not being able to have full classes for things like labs and such on campus. They all have salary attached to them whether it's full time or adjunct. We will be spending more in the Fall, but do have CARES Act funding to cover it for now.

At least that's how it is for smaller schools...

Also, a big majority of surveyed students prefer in-class learning. It's not a case of "if you build it they will come". Enrollment at most places is lagging because students are waiting to hear what kind of mix is going to be available for fall semester.

[Qb]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Haa, I thought about responding to that but thought you might be lurking in here, Tim! You can make the argument that moving to a fully online model could reduce costs by eliminating the need for facilities, while boosting revenue by attracting students from anywhere (eg, the online for-profit model or SNHU expansion). But as a stop gap measure or strategic pivot for traditional institutions, it likely requires additional resources, not fewer.

Oh man, for a second there I thought I was in a discussion post for my Planning & Resource Management online class. Sorry!

[ImTellinTim]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Haa, I thought about responding to that but thought you might be lurking in here, Tim! You can make the argument that moving to a fully online model could reduce costs by eliminating the need for facilities, while boosting revenue by attracting students from anywhere (eg, the online for-profit model or SNHU expansion). But as a stop gap measure or strategic pivot for traditional institutions, it likely requires additional resources, not fewer.

Oh man, for a second there I thought I was in a discussion post for my Planning & Resource Management online class. Sorry!

I think all online as a model will become more feasible as student preferences continue to shift and technology improves. For many disciplines, the quality of education you get from being in person is much better.

Another problem that we and many other schools outside of metro areas have is the Internet infrastructure is - to put it in blunt terms - pathetic. It’s literally non-existent in some places not even 15 miles off campus. We had to pivot to all online delivery midway through Spring like everyone else. We had some students coming to our computer lab to do online courses in Spring because it was their only option. Labs were the only thing open on campus because of that.

Larger schools that have been experiencing enrollment declines since everyone came back to school because of the late 2000s collapse are definitely finding they have too much facility though. For us, we’re still operating where we use our building at a decent capacity. (in normal operations)

It will be interesting to see if enrollment spikes again after we are on the other side of this economic hit. I think the big difference between now and back then is everywhere I go I see help needed signs. There are going to be jobs waiting for people at the end of this. Right now in many states unemployment is still designed to keep people home.

[ImTellinTim]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Something else to consider with opening up K-12 fully with social distancing restriction - busing. Not every student can get a ride to school from a parent. So if you're going to limit capacity on buses to say, 1/3, and you take into effect students who can get a private ride... Are you looking at needing twice as many routes? Buses aren't cheap, so you can't just double your fleet. So maybe you do two runs to every neighborhood? Again, what about rural areas like where I grew up where buses are driving 20+ miles to pick up a student? How do you get students to school safely and relatively on time?

[DocHolliday]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

The cat is out of the bag. Once people decided going out in any capacity was worth it even though we shutdown the world economy, everyone else was like “Ef it, I’m gonna do me.”

A total failure of everyone in our government and involved in politics.




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[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I doubt it, but who knows. I'm not sure what the purpose of more lockdowns would be at this point. California was closed for nearly 2 months. Then businesses started reopening, thousands were in the streets, testing increased, and cases went up. European countries that we look at as handling this better were a mess back in March/April. Just like NY. The virus is gonna hit metro areas eventually. And we have a ton of those spread out over a huge amount of land.

The lockdowns basically added to the effect of the USA getting hit more in segments separately. And now we're using that as a criticism somehow, as if Southern California and NYC are geographical neighbors the same as two cities in Spain. We're better served thinking of our country in terms of regions when it comes to this. Texas getting hit for the first time after NY numbers decrease is not, "Covid is still on the rise, will America ever learn?!" It's one region having it's first wave after another region has subsided.

This all makes sense until you look at hoe Europe is doing. Not addressing the virus, which means a lockdown until contact tracing is possible, is the quickest way to restore the economy. Opening has choked off the ability to manage a robust economy.

As I’ve said, we are just waiting for what it takes to turn public opinion. Would prefer it be logic and reason instead thousands dying in cities that ran out of ICU space. But it’s coming.

Or maybe this time is different than Italy, Spain, and NYC.

California was on a good path, but opened too soon, and saw tons of people violating stay at home orders.

Or maybe you are right, and me sitting inside all day everyday, with occasional essential errands is just the new normal. We don’t even know if it’s immunity is any better than it is for the common cold, which is a coronavirus.

But I think there is a line, it’s just gonna be way uglier than I ever thought Americans would be comfortable with.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I am the CFO at a small community college.

Short answer. No.

A vast majority of a college's expenses are salary. The same number or more sections will need to be taught, due to not being able to have full classes for things like labs and such on campus. They all have salary attached to them whether it's full time or adjunct. We will be spending more in the Fall, but do have CARES Act funding to cover it for now.

At least that's how it is for smaller schools...

Also, a big majority of surveyed students prefer in-class learning. It's not a case of "if you build it they will come". Enrollment at most places is lagging because students are waiting to hear what kind of mix is going to be available for fall semester.

I definitely do not know enough to know whether online learning is cheaper. But what students prefer is nearly meaningless. They also prefer no homework and multiple choice final exams. You either need or want the degree or not.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Another problem that we and many other schools outside of metro areas have is the Internet infrastructure is - to put it in blunt terms - pathetic. It’s literally non-existent in some places not even 15 miles off campus. We had to pivot to all online delivery midway through Spring like everyone else. We had some students coming to our computer lab to do online courses in Spring because it was their only option. Labs were the only thing open on campus because of that.

Oh, I do think that moving to more online college would be mean a ton of colleges just go away. Without a vaccine, the notion of a rural college attracting students from a wide, possibly multistage area, is the opposite of best practice.

What I’ve believed since the beginning of this is that the pandemic is going to change how we do all kinds of things. That will result in both industries being destroyed and innovation creating tons of new opportunities. So we may go to 10% go to what we think of as college today, and the rest finding online schools or going to trades hook built around apprenticeship for a wider amount of occupations than we have today.

Nothing about this has changed my mind. I don’t know what all the changes will be, but trying to hold on to normal is wiping us out economically.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/healt...day/index.html

The worsening coronavirus pandemic hit a series of somber peaks across the United States on Tuesday, renewing fears that more hospitals could be overloaded with Covid-19 patients.

At least 56 intensive care units in Florida hospitals reached capacity on Tuesday, state officials said. Another 35 hospitals show ICU bed availability of 10% or less, according to the Agency for Health Care Administration in that state.

Georgia surpassed 100,000 reported coronavirus cases, becoming the ninth state to pass the mark.

In California, the number of hospitalizations across the state were at an all-time high and the virus positivity rate jumped more than 2% in Los Angeles.

As nearly 3 million confirmed coronavirus cases were reported in the US, the need for testing has increased. That has led federal officials to set up new testing sites in Florida, Louisiana and Texas. But major diagnostic companies have said they are facing testing delays.

Hospitals in Texas and Florida are flooded with critical Covid-19 patients and some local and state officials have made face coverings mandatory.

Last week, the country averaged just under 50,000 new cases daily -- the highest rate recorded, and twice as high as a month ago.

[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/07/healt...day/index.html

You are leaving out the part where the hospitals in Florida specifically in central Florida said they are not over capacity or full. They are allowing elective procedures and everyone gets tested, so anyone who has it, gets listed as a covid patient even though they are having an elective procedure. They can also stop elective procedures and regain capacity any time they need to.

Hospitals generally try to be close to capacity, so it's nothing new. South Florida may be in worse shape, but they also still have some capacity.

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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

In Wisconsin, cases are increasing, some days into the 9% to 10% positive area. Madison, WI will be ordering mask wearing starting Monday.

25% of the positive cases are from the ages of 20-29 with being contact traced to bars and larger indoor gatherings. The health department people are concerned that the younger population will infect the older population and we will return back to square 1 quickly.

One could look at one of my post from a few months ago and exactly what my dad was concerned with. Joe six pack enters bar, becomes infected and gives it to mom/dad and grandma and grandpa. The mom/dad grandma/grandpa shop in the same store he does and all the work he's done to self-quarantine over the past 4 months is thrown out the window.

Of course, p_rushing, densely populated areas will be near capacity while lesser populated areas will have more room for hospitalizations.

The virus loves to attack densely populated areas, but Wisconsin rural areas are much better off.

Here is a answered question from the mayor of Phoenix:

With this major spike in new cases, how confident are you that Phoenix has enough, say, ICU beds to handle a surge of hospitalizations at this point?

We are in a crisis situation with our health care. We have reached the level where over 90% of our ICU beds are in use. And we are quite worried that after the Fourth of July weekend, we will see another large growth in COVID-19 admissions to the hospital. So we are very worried about what's to come. I believe the worst is still ahead of us, which is scary because it's already at the level of care where people are being treated in hallways and nurses are coming in from other states. I don't want to say, though, that Phoenix is the only Arizona community that's suffering. Our Navajo Nation is among the hardest hit anywhere in the world. It's a tough situation in all corners of our community.

[mestevo]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

You are leaving out the part where the hospitals in Florida specifically in central Florida said they are not over capacity or full. They are allowing elective procedures and everyone gets tested, so anyone who has it, gets listed as a covid patient even though they are having an elective procedure. They can also stop elective procedures and regain capacity any time they need to.

Hospitals generally try to be close to capacity, so it's nothing new. South Florida may be in worse shape, but they also still have some capacity.

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I wouldn't think a lot of elective procedures would result in using ICU beds.

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[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

You are leaving out the part where the hospitals in Florida specifically in central Florida said they are not over capacity or full. They are allowing elective procedures and everyone gets tested, so anyone who has it, gets listed as a covid patient even though they are having an elective procedure. They can also stop elective procedures and regain capacity any time they need to.

Hospitals generally try to be close to capacity, so it's nothing new. South Florida may be in worse shape, but they also still have some capacity.

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Nearly 84% of Florida's ICU beds are filled amid rising coronavirus cases

As the number of coronavirus cases continue to rise in Florida, the state is facing a shortage of available ICU beds. On Tuesday, when there were more than 7,300 new cases of the coronavirus reported, officials also reported that out of the state's 5,023 ICU beds in the state, just 962 are still available.

Out of Florida's 67 counties, 25 have at least one hospital with no ICU beds available as of Tuesday. Ten counties have less than 10% of their ICU beds available, and two counties have completely run out of adult ICU beds.

In Miami-Dade County, which accounts for the majority of the state's cases with more than 51,000, nine hospitals have run out of ICU beds. Jackson Memorial Hospital has less than 9% of its 185 ICU beds available, and some patients have had to wait up to 24 hours to get one of the remaining beds. The hospital is also facing staffing shortages.

Arizona is also running low on hospital beds, and health care workers in the state are once again running low on PPE. Hospitalizations have soared to 90% in California. Texas officials have also expressed fear that they could join Florida, California, and other states in running out of room in its hospitals.

[Caulfield]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I would still think the above is good news; we are learning how to treat those who are sick. In my mind, deaths going down can only be a good thing, period.



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this is what I thought as well. as herd immunity spreads and the less deaths the better. but I see where no less an authority than Fauci says we shouldn't focus on the falling death rate. this thing can still make you sick. or if it doesn't (which is likely, even if you get it) you can pass it on to others who could get sick. but also might not. of course, the common cold can make you sick too and they gave up on a vaccine for that long ago. as for me, I'm still glad the death rate is dropping but what I'm really hoping is after November, even if corona never completely goes away, maybe at least the chicken little sky is falling routine will.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Oh, yeah, I agree with can't wait till November because that is usually when the normal flu season kicks in.

Do I have the regular flu or corona?

I don't consider the virus chicken little the sky is falling when it comes to the elderly that are able to function very well in their own home and outside their home.

Media chicken little sky is falling is a different story. lol

Antibiotics first, vaccine next and then maybe the sky is falling narrative will blow away.