CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[mpklub]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Not sure. For what it’s worth, China is at 4% and they’re the most far along.

But I look at Italy and they’ve got less total cases and double the amount of China’s deaths.

There’s clearly multiple paths this can go, adding to the uncertainty of... everything.

The data is bad. And what I mean by that is that it is incomplete. It is skewed by the fact it is based off of confirmed cases which means anyone who is asymptomatic or mild isn't reported or captured in these numbers. As one anecdotal point - my wife is a nurse and the hospital she works at won't test nurses unless they have a fever above a certain level and other symptoms. While they won't say this it is likely they won't test nurses because it is likely they test positive and if they are positive then they can't provide care because they have to quarantine.

Think about how many people one asymptomatic nurse would come in contact with daily.

Unless you know everyone who was infected within a certain period of time you won't be able to accurately assess mortality rate. You mention Italy- I believe the data there is heavily skewed towards older folks. I think the average age of a deceased patient is close to 80.

For what it is worth my mother used to work in bioterrorism for the department of homeland security and did this type of analysis and worked with epidemiologists....she is of the belief the mortality rate will end up being much lower than it is.

This isn't me trying to downplay. The fact this virus transmits so easily and is so lethal to certain segments of the population is reason for caution. We have taken the social distancing very seriously here in our household. I am just optimistic that when all is said and done mortality rates will be much lower then they appear to be.

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[Jr.]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Not sure. For what it’s worth, China is at 4% and they’re the most far along.

But I look at Italy and they’ve got less total cases and double the amount of China’s deaths.

There’s clearly multiple paths this can go, adding to the uncertainty of... everything.

Italy has an old population. I read the median age of infection there is in the 60s, where in China it was in the 40s. That's at least one part of it, hopefully a major part.

[pietasterp]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Agree w/ everything mpklub stated above, very sensible analysis.

[KG]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Italy has an old population. I read the median age of infection there is in the 60s, where in China it was in the 40s. That's at least one part of it, hopefully a major part.

Italy is also a nation that smokes A LOT. Hell a lot of Europe still does. That has to play a factor in this virus being so terrorizing to younger populations.

The #’s are such a double edged sword. The only reason we’re not at Italy levels yet (I’d reported cases) is because of the lack of availability for tests.

The minute my health care provider emailed me their procedure for the coronavirus I knew enough to read between the lines about them not having enough tests. It confirmed all my suspicions I’ve heard from reliable healthcare professionals.

Unfortunately it feels as if the Executive Branch of the govt has a different opinion than State Governments.


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[PVarck31]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

The data is bad. And what I mean by that is that it is incomplete. It is skewed by the fact it is based off of confirmed cases which means anyone who is asymptomatic or mild isn't reported or captured in these numbers. As one anecdotal point - my wife is a nurse and the hospital she works at won't test nurses unless they have a fever above a certain level and other symptoms. While they won't say this it is likely they won't test nurses because it is likely they test positive and if they are positive then they can't provide care because they have to quarantine.

Think about how many people one asymptomatic nurse would come in contact with daily.

Unless you know everyone who was infected within a certain period of time you won't be able to accurately assess mortality rate. You mention Italy- I believe the data there is heavily skewed towards older folks. I think the average age of a deceased patient is close to 80.

For what it is worth my mother used to work in bioterrorism for the department of homeland security and did this type of analysis and worked with epidemiologists....she is of the belief the mortality rate will end up being much lower than it is.

This isn't me trying to downplay. The fact this virus transmits so easily and is so lethal to certain segments of the population is reason for caution. We have taken the social distancing very seriously here in our household. I am just optimistic that when all is said and done mortality rates will be much lower then they appear to be.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Operation Sports mobile app

Thank your wife for me and my wife. While my wife is a nurse, she works in a nursing home. Which I guess at this point is better than in a hospital. Your wife being on the front lines and still doing her job is heroic.

And what your mom says is very encouraging. Any shred of good news at this point is sorely needed.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

This isn't me trying to downplay. The fact this virus transmits so easily and is so lethal to certain segments of the population is reason for caution. We have taken the social distancing very seriously here in our household. I am just optimistic that when all is said and done mortality rates will be much lower then they appear to be.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Operation Sports mobile app

Agree.

I was flipping though Youtube and noticed Gov. Coumo in a press conference. I didn't catch all of it, but the part that I witnessed he did come across as fatherly and a decision maker. He said it's not pleasant, but we maybe living like this for the next several months, nobody knows definitively how long, yet, but only 2% of the population that are infected with it will die.

He said he's having a doctor at one of the NY Universities looking at studies to discover if and when to send young people back to work in his state. He mentioned at some point we need to pivot back and start getting our business's back going again.

I wouldn't want to be in his shoes. He showed where his state has almost 20 times more positive cases than other states.

[Gotmadskillzson]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

13 yr old girl died from the virus in Panama. 12 yr old girl in Atlanta is on the verge of dying. Over 12,000 infected in NYC. Military said they can't help everybody in the USA and told governors to convert college dorms and hotels into field hospitals. Chicago is converting 5 hospitals into field hospitals. NYC said they will run out of supplies at the end of the week. Virginia schools closed for the rest of the school year.

[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Since last Monday - one week - positive cases have grown by 900% - almost seems unfathomable at what might happen in the next few weeks. Stay safe, everyone.

Not that its not concerning because it is, but we do have to continue to remember:

1. A big part of that data is a huge increase in testing. We don't know the balance between new cases vs more testing

2. Still early in the social distancing to see a big impact in the numbers.

[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

CT just extended school closures to at least 4/20

[Majingir]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Now a state of emergency has been called in the city

[JayBee74]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

All capital letter tweet from the top guy last night indicates some possible relaxing of restrictions very soon.

WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF, AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!

Dr. Fauci on some inaccurate statements coming from the top guy.

"I can't jump in front of the microphone and push him down."

Troubling times.

[dubcity]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Eventually people are going to come back out and go back to work, even with this virus still out there.

We're intentionally tanking the economy and harming the lives of people living paycheck-by-paycheck to protect people from this, and that can be deemed reasonable for a few months (especially with a stimulus coming eventually), but after a while it's just not gonna happen.

More people will be tested in a quicker and easier manner, and things will be dealt with on a person by person basis, not by shutting down the economy altogether.

[jeremym480]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[Fresh Tendrils]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Eventually people are going to come back out and go back to work, even with this virus still out there.

We're intentionally tanking the economy and harming the lives of people living paycheck-by-paycheck to protect people from this, and that can be deemed reasonable for a few months (especially with a stimulus coming eventually), but after a while it's just not gonna happen.

More people will be tested in a quicker and easier manner, and things will be dealt with on a person by person basis, not by shutting down the economy altogether.

"Intentionally" tanking the economy? It's clear we don't have nearly enough medical supplies, staffing, beds, hospitals, et al to deal with the influx of a large portion of the population getting sick and seeking treatment.

[bigfnjoe96]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Just got a call from my new boss at the New York State Dept. of Health to update me on my employment.

She said, I can either:

A- Start next Thursday helping take calls at a call center on Covid-19 from the community.

Answering questions, screening people for possible exposure and setting them up to be tested at the nearest site near them.

Or

B- Delay my employment, until the building I will be working from opens again. No time table on this.

Decided on option A. Don't have enough in the reserve to not work for maybe 2-3 months.

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