Week 12 Discussion

[illwill10]

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

I see where you're coming from. I'm just always going to be on the side of the fence that only wants conference champs in the playoffs while it is at 4 teams. Your first shot at the playoffs is winning your conference. If you can't even do that, I personally don't think you earned a playoff spot.

Don't disagree with that. If LSU took care of business and beat FSU, they would be in the mix. Even if they upset UGA, they're not likely getting in without upsets ahead of them.

I like USC next year if they can get Addison to return next year. If they can attack the transfer portal and attack their holes on defense and a playmaker here and there, I like their chances next year

[KSUowls]

All or nearly all (depending how the last 2 games play out) controversy could be avoided by a conference championship requirement for the CFP. I also say any controversy is irrelevant because teams had their shut to control their destiny. That number is down to 4, and only 3 of them can finish undefeated.

If all 3 finished undefeated then they should be in no matter what.

That being said our current system does have a lot of variables that should be interesting to see play out.

UGA...I'm 99% sure that they are in no matter what happens in the SECCG. 2 blowout wins against Oregon and Tennessee plus dominating most of their schedule. It's going to be hard to keep them out even if LSU wins. So the SECCG is pretty much pointless. (another problem with CFP births not tied to conference championships).

Mich/OSU...the winner of that game is almost certainly in. The winner will play a vastly inferior opponent in the B1G title game. Though this could hurt them if they trip up since it's a game that they should win easily and result in a bigger perception penalty.
-I'm less confident that the loser of the Mich/OSU game is still in the CFP than I was a few weeks ago, but I don't think that they are out. They will likely need some help though.


TCU...if they win out then they are in. I'm not sure if they can survive any losses though. Many of their wins are close, and as the rankings currently stand their schedule is not impressive.

USC & Clemson both are interesting with somewhat similar circumstances. I tend to think that 1 of them will be in, but they are both so flawed they could be left out in a few scenarios.

Clemson got blown out, have not been dominant in most of their wins, and they lack much in the way of top 25 wins. NC losing to GT this past week also hurts them since they won't have a chance to beat a top 13 team. USC having beaten their mutual opponent ND could spell doom for them as well.

USC, repeat everything that I said about Clemson except the blowout loss. Lot's of close wins and a schedule that has arguably been easier than even Clemson's as they avoided both Washington and Oregon (though they will play one of them in the conference title game). I think that a win over ND gives them the edge though.


The only 2 loss team that I think has even a prayer is LSU. I think they need a lot of other dominoes to fall even if they beat Georgia though. (I'm not giving North Carolina, Oregon or Washington a chance. IMO the teams that they would be beating in Clemson/USC are already on shaky ground.)

[LowerWolf]

• Georgia is in unless it somehow loses to both Georgia Tech and LSU.
• The winner of Ohio State-Michigan is in. I don't think the Big 10 title game will matter.
• TCU is in if it wins out.
• USC is in if it wins out since it will finish the season with wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and (I'm assuming) Oregon (sorry, Tovarich).

The loser of Ohio State-Michigan is in a pretty good spot if TCU or USC loses. Chaos may ensue if both TCU and USC lose.

[illwill10]

Quote: Originally Posted by LowerWolf

Georgia is in unless it somehow loses to both Georgia Tech and LSU. The winner of Ohio State-Michigan is in. I don't think the Big 10 title game will matter. TCU is in if it wins out. USC is in if it wins out since it will finish the season with wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and (I'm assuming) Oregon (sorry, Tovarich). The loser of Ohio State-Michigan is in a pretty good spot if TCU or USC loses. Chaos may ensue if both TCU and USC lose.

I can see that playing out. I can see USC losing one of the next 2 games. I watched parts of several USC games. They have a tendency to start slow at times. I still think they're a "year away". They're losing 3 SR HBs, so they'll likely go after a transfer RB. Also need to plug up holes in the defense.

I see TCU winning out. If USC loses a game, that pencils in the loser of OSU/UM. I can see a doomsday situation where USC and TCU losses, UGA beats LSU, and Clemson loss. Would the loser of OSU/UM make it over Alabama. I think Bama is the next up if all those teams loses.

[Jr.]

Quote: Originally Posted by illwill10

I can see that playing out. I can see USC losing one of the next 2 games. I watched parts of several USC games. They have a tendency to start slow at times. I still think they're a "year away". They're losing 3 SR HBs, so they'll likely go after a transfer RB. Also need to plug up holes in the defense. I see TCU winning out. If USC loses a game, that pencils in the loser of OSU/UM. I can see a doomsday situation where USC and TCU losses, UGA beats LSU, and Clemson loss. Would the loser of OSU/UM make it over Alabama. I think Bama is the next up if all those teams loses.

A 1 loss Ohio State or Michigan absolutely makes it in over Bama.

[illwill10]

Quote: Originally Posted by Jr.

A 1 loss Ohio State or Michigan absolutely makes it in over Bama.

I agree. Only current 2 loss team that has a chance now is LSU. But, even they need a lot to happen. Even if they get a USC lost, still might need a TCU loss as well. But even then, does a 2 loss LSU make it over a 1 loss OSU/UM. I do think upset wins over Bama, Ole Miss(ranked #7 at time), UGA would make a compelling case for LSU.

[canes21]

Quote: Originally Posted by KSUowls

All or nearly all (depending how the last 2 games play out) controversy could be avoided by a conference championship requirement for the CFP.

Yep. This is how it should have been from the start, but here we are, probably by design. The committee can sit here and say they want the best teams in the playoffs, not the most deserving teams, then use that as reasoning to put in a team that didn't even play for their conference championship. We've already seen it. I hate it, but it is what it is. Money rules, I guess.

I personally prefer a system where teams actually earn their way to a playoff spot and they aren't given it simply because they have talent on paper, but it seems all sports are moving away from earning things in the regular season.

[Tovarich]

Quote: Originally Posted by LowerWolf

USC is in if it wins out since it will finish the season with wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and (I'm assuming) Oregon (sorry, Tovarich).

That's fine. Based on tiebreakers, Oregon has a really good chance of still making it even if they lose. I know that's what you meant...