Week 12 Discussion

[Tovarich]

For those that want a conference championship mandatory for making the playoff, then college football essentially needs to go to the NFL model. Conference standings and best teams are inherently different standards. "Best" is highly subjective. It involves winning, but also style points, and also playing a hard OOC schedule to add to your conference games to give you an advantage in SOS over others who are of similar quality. Then opinion forms of who the best teams are based on all the results combined.

Conference standings don't work like that. A 59 point win over Ohio State or a 1 point win in 4 overtimes against Rutgers count the same. You're either 1-0 or 0-1. There are objective standards to win a conference in contrast to the subjectivity of who the best teams are. You just finish higher in the standings. It doesn't matter if you went 0-4 in your OOC as long as you win these other 8. OOC games largely become irrelevant and may as well be done away with. Is it fair for a team to miss Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in one season while another then misses Rutgers, Indiana and Michigan State instead? A full blown round robin is probably necessary to make it even. Divisions? Well, why should a 5-3 team get to a championship game against an 8-0 team just because the three best teams in the conference happen to play in the same division? Extreme scenarios like that happen. Toledo once went 10-1 and didn't win their conference. 5-6 North Texas did. 5-3 Kansas State beat 8-0 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. Kansas went 11-1 without having to play Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the south who were the top 3 teams. We're about to get 9-0 Ohio State/Michigan against a 6-3(at best) or 5-4 team possibly. A lot of things need to change to just say 'conference champions only' and it automatically make you the most deserving.

[illwill10]

Not fully surprised that LSU is over USC in the CFP standings. I still think TCU should be safe if they win the next 2, especially since Kansas State should still be top 15 by time they play again. Even if LSU upsets UGA, I still wouldn't them over an undefeated TCU. But, I would be if it was over the loser of OSU/UM.

[bamalam]

I don’t think Clemson is 1 Of the best 4 teams but they are not out of it yet

They could finish as 12-1 acc champion.
They need help but I think Michigan and LSU both lose

LSU definitely out with 3 losses at that point
Mich resume with no conf championship would be out compare to Clemson 1 loss conf champions
Ga at 1, Ocryo st at 2
Then it is tcu usc and Clemson for spots 3-4.
Then If one of tcu or usc loses, Clemson is in, imo at 4
—

If mich and or lsu win they are in and ga and o st stay in.

Interesting scenario;
If both lsu and tcu win then tcu is an undefeated conf champ who gets left out?
You would have :
lsu- 2 loss sec champ
Mich-b10 champ undefeated
Ga 1 loss sec
Ost 1 loss b10
Tcu undefeated b12 conf champion
Maybe usc 1 loss pac champ

[illwill10]

Quote: Originally Posted by bamalam

I don’t think Clemson is 1 Of the best 4 teams but they are not out of it yet They could finish as 12-1 acc champion. They need help but I think Michigan and LSU both lose LSU definitely out with 3 losses at that point Mich resume with no conf championship would be out compare to Clemson 1 loss conf champions Ga at 1, Ocryo st at 2 Then it is tcu usc and Clemson for spots 3-4. Then If one of tcu or usc loses, Clemson is in, imo at 4 — If mich and or lsu win they are in and ga and o st stay in. Interesting scenario; If both lsu and tcu win then tcu is an undefeated conf champ who gets left out? You would have : lsu- 2 loss sec champ Mich-b10 champ undefeated Ga 1 loss sec Ost 1 loss b10 Tcu undefeated b12 conf champion Maybe usc 1 loss pac champ

In that scenario, I think OSU is out. I think LSU might be the 4th team. Having upset wins over Ole Miss(was highly ranked at time),Tennessee, Bama, and UGA, I think would get them over a 1 loss OSU and USC. USC has would have a case with 3 straight top 20 wins over UCLA, ND, and Oregon. But, I think the SEC bias would get LSU in. I think TCU being undefeated should save them. While Big 12 doesn't have as much clout, TCU would have 6 wins over teams who are currently ranked.

I think if TCU loses, that changes things. If that happens, I think USC makes it at 12-1. If LSU wins both, then they'll likely bump up over to #4 over the loser of OSU/UM. I think the loser if OSU/UM is safe if TCU and LSU or USC loses. I don't want to say Clemson is out of it, but they would need to dominate next 2 games to get into consideration

[KSUowls]

Quote: Originally Posted by Tovarich

For those that want a conference championship mandatory for making the playoff, then college football essentially needs to go to the NFL model. Conference standings and best teams are inherently different standards. "Best" is highly subjective. It involves winning, but also style points, and also playing a hard OOC schedule to add to your conference games to give you an advantage in SOS over others who are of similar quality. Then opinion forms of who the best teams are based on all the results combined. Conference standings don't work like that. A 59 point win over Ohio State or a 1 point win in 4 overtimes against Rutgers count the same. You're either 1-0 or 0-1. There are objective standards to win a conference in contrast to the subjectivity of who the best teams are. You just finish higher in the standings. It doesn't matter if you went 0-4 in your OOC as long as you win these other 8. OOC games largely become irrelevant and may as well be done away with. Is it fair for a team to miss Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State in one season while another then misses Rutgers, Indiana and Michigan State instead? A full blown round robin is probably necessary to make it even. Divisions? Well, why should a 5-3 team get to a championship game against an 8-0 team just because the three best teams in the conference happen to play in the same division? Extreme scenarios like that happen. Toledo once went 10-1 and didn't win their conference. 5-6 North Texas did. 5-3 Kansas State beat 8-0 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. Kansas went 11-1 without having to play Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech from the south who were the top 3 teams. We're about to get 9-0 Ohio State/Michigan against a 6-3(at best) or 5-4 team possibly. A lot of things need to change to just say 'conference champions only' and it automatically make you the most deserving.

I'm not sure what would need to change in CFB tbh.

We have literal decades worth of data where if we applied the current playoff system with the "conference champion" pre-requisite, it would not be a problem with identifying who the best teams are. Because the best team and the most deserving are quite often synonymous in a sport where the top teams regularly blow out their opponents due to talent disparity which should not shock anyone.

If a scenario played out where OSU beats Michigan and then Iowa pulls off a huge upset in the B1G title game against them them then it doesn't change much other than offer an elimination game. Because as supremely rare as the above scenario is (an undefeated P5 losing to an 3+ loss team in the conference championship), it's simply unprecedented that we would also see UGA, Clemson, TCU or USC also lose on the same day. So, the CFP still has 4 very good very deserving teams. Conference title games have only been around for about 30 years, but for that entire time we have never had a scenario where a major upset happened and we did not have at least 4 other qualified teams.

[canes21]

Yea, I don't think we'd need to go to an NFL model. Each year we already see that for the most part everything works out alright at just 4 teams. We hardly ever actually have a real debate about needing it expanded for a 5th team, and never for a 6th or greater team.

I also disagree with the idea that it makes OOC games irrelevant. If you have 5 different 12-1 conference champions, which already pretty much doesn't happen, then if any of them have a marquee OOC win then it automatically puts them in the playoff.

I also agree that the best teams and the most deserving teams are usually synonymous. While it worked itself out this year, I hate the idea of a team like Tennessee getting in had they not even won the East because they had style points while going 11-1. Especially if it meant something like a 12-1 ACC champion Clemson not getting in. Before they lost to South Carolina, Tennessee had their shot to prove they belonged in the playoffs and they had an noncompetitive game against UGA. To me, that should have basically sealed their fate there.

I also think that if LSU does upset UGA, then UGA should not get a mulligan and be allowed into the playoffs. You're just making more and more games worthless by allowing stuff like that to happen which pretty much goes against what has made college football so special for so long. If we sit here and allow teams that don't even play for their conference title to make the playoffs, or we expand and allow even more at-large teams, then the regular season is significantly devalued and the game isn't anything close to what made college football special, especially when we're losing historical rivalry games left and right with conference expansion. Moving towards the NFL anymore at all is not the right move.

[LowerWolf]

Quote: Originally Posted by canes21

Before they lost to South Carolina, Tennessee had their shot to prove they belonged in the playoffs and they had an noncompetitive game against UGA. To me, that should have basically sealed their fate there.

Playing devil's advocate, why does LSU get a mulligan then? Didn't they have their shot against Tennessee and lost (at home) in a noncompetitive game? Why does that game not matter in terms of the playoff but Tennessee's loss to Georgia does?

If LSU loses this weekend to A&M (unlikely, but possible) then turns around and upsets Georgia in the SEC championship, are you cool with LSU getting in over Georgia?

Quote: Originally Posted by KSUowls

If a scenario played out where OSU beats Michigan and then Iowa pulls off a huge upset in the B1G title game against them them then it doesn't change much other than offer an elimination game. .

Playing devil's advocate again, shouldn't we consider Iowa then? They won their conference. What if we get a bonkers championship weekend and Iowa, LSU, Kansas State, North Carolina and Oregon all win? Are we taking four of those five?

Quote: Originally Posted by illwill10

In that scenario, I think OSU is out. I think LSU might be the 4th team. Having upset wins over Ole Miss(was highly ranked at time),Tennessee, Bama, and UGA, I think would get them over a 1 loss OSU and USC.

We clobbered LSU in Baton Rouge.

[Tovarich]

Quote: Originally Posted by LowerWolf

Playing devil's advocate, why does LSU get a mulligan then? Didn't they have their shot against Tennessee and lost (at home) in a noncompetitive game? Why does that game not matter in terms of the playoff but Tennessee's loss to Georgia does? If LSU loses this weekend to A&M (unlikely, but possible) then turns around and upsets Georgia in the SEC championship, are you cool with LSU getting in over Georgia? Playing devil's advocate again, shouldn't we consider Iowa then? They won their conference. What if we get a bonkers championship weekend and Iowa, LSU, Kansas State, North Carolina and Oregon all win? Are we taking four of those five? We clobbered LSU in Baton Rouge.

Exactly my problem with all of this. Literally half the regular season becomes meaningless. All OOC games are irrelevant as they have no effect on your ability to make the conference championship in most cases. Michigan and Ohio State's games the last 2 weeks were meaningless because only this coming week and the week after decide the conference championship. Iowa gets a re-match with someone. Why do we need to see that again? Tennessee was eliminated because arbitrary geographical divisions decided so? But a team who never had to play Georgia gets a chance still? LSU's game this week is rendered meaningless because it doesn't affect their ability to win the conference championship. TCU had already clinched their spot, so their last 2 games were meaningless as is this coming one? And whoever gets TCU already had their chance at them, and we need to see it all over again, why?

I'll take a regular season where anyone who wants to make a playoff has something to play for in virtually every game they play over this scenario where almost half your season's schedule is apparently meaningless except to practice for some different games. Lots of things definitely need to change for a conference championship-only requirement.