Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

[EnigmaNemesis]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

So you are right and I am wrong. What that's pretty good that you can tell from a screenshot. Well that definitely proves it then. I am playing the game and seeing it. Like I said I am 50 games into my season and something is there. Not sure what it is but something is there. Are you playing dynasty or exhibition?

Look man, I never said I was right and you were wrong, any more than you said that to me. (other than you did not understand what the comeback option did)

What I am saying is, just because you see something, doesn't automatically mean there IS something. If you go into this looking for something, chances are you will think you found something.

My data and many others have shown otherwise... so what does that say then?

I say practice makes perfect. It was how even this very thread starter figured out all along. And totally changed his tune once he was getting the hang of managing the games, by a game by game, batter by batter basis.

Hope it works out for you, cause if not, you will just be spending all season beating your head into a wall, instead of enjoying the gem in front of you. Especially when it will all be for not, if the devs said the game is a-ok in that department. So dont expect a "fix" I guess.

[EnigmaNemesis]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

maybe the team your playing with has more clutch pitchers. I have no idea. Try with a different team and see.

The thing is, it has been tested from a bunch of us, from the Red Sox and Yankees, to the Nationals and Royals. Same results.

More potent teams will come back against the Royals, and vise versa ... it's baseball.

I dont see how close games or a team trying to come back is a worrisome thing. It is baseball, relievers are not all that outstanding, and average baseball team's bullpen is suspect at best, thus as a gamer you need a much greater concentration, which the devs have captured remarkebly.

[bears5122]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

Why do you say that?

There has been tons of clutch (Papi) and non-cluth (A-rod) performances, especially in the playoffs. They have whole books, stats, and science involved on the subject.

They can just rename the stat "great/poor under certain pressure" and still serve the same purpose.

Because it's statistically proven. Clutch is just a narrative announcers and fans like to implement into the game to make it more meaningful. We like being able to believe that a player can dig deep down and pull something out that he normally doesn't have. We like being able to blame a poor performance on a player's inability to deal with the pressure. For the most part though, in enough at-bats, players will perform just as well in the clutch as they do normally.

Here are a couple articles on it that use years of statistical date to back it up.

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/gra...ullclutch.html

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2656

[EnigmaNemesis]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

Because it's statistically proven. Clutch is just a narrative announcers and fans like to implement into the game to make it more meaningful. We like being able to believe that a player can dig deep down and pull something out that he normally doesn't have. We like being able to blame a poor performance on a player's inability to deal with the pressure. For the most part though, in enough at-bats, players will perform just as well in the clutch as they do normally.

Here are a couple articles on it that use years of statistical date to back it up.

http://www.baseball1.com/bb-data/gra...ullclutch.html
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2656

That is fine. People will post their opinions. But statistics can not measure how a person performs under certain pressured situations. Since there is no statistical data for how much pressure they have at the time.

What Papi did in 04 was Clutch. Sure his skill set helped, but it was his "clutch performance" under those circumstances he thrived.

A-rod and CC, their playoff chances were squandered, even when A-rod was faced similar circumstances and instances that Papi was in.

So that is why there is "clutch" no matter what person starting out their writing career wants to prove or not.

[Speedy]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

Swaldo,

I looked at the data you posted and agreed, the best way to conclude if there even is a "comeback code" is to take about 10-15 games cpu vs. cpu. If in 15 games, the trailing team in the 7-9th innings ends up winning 10/15 games then I would start to believe in it. Otherwise, if it's only like maybe 4-5 games then there's nothing to worry about b/c that's realistic, just as you stated.

The human instinct is to rest which sometimes causes a loss in even a smidget of focus when winning which can cause the CPU to mount a comeback. It's a lot harder to pitch from the stretch than the windup in my mind and in some higher difficulties (legend especially) if I'm not really close on the white/yellow marker when trying to aim the pitch it's pretty much a meatball coming to the plate.

[bears5122]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

That is fine. People will post their opinions. But statistics can not measure how a person performs under certain pressured situations. Since there is no statistical data for how much pressure they have at the time.

What Papi did in 04 was Clutch. Sure his skill set helped, but it was his "clutch performance" under those circumstances he thrived.

A-rod and CC, their playoff chances were squandered, even when A-rod was faced similar circumstances and instances that Papi was in.

So that is why there is "clutch" no matter what person starting out their writing career wants to prove or not.

Statistics can meature clutch though. The data shows that amongst all the different situations a player faces, his numbers don't deviate.

You use Ortiz as an example of clutch, yet his playoff numbers don't really differ much from his regular season numbers. He was "clutch" in 2004, but not a clutch player in 2003 and 2008? How does a player go from choke artist to clutch back to choke artist over his career? He doesn't. Statistical averages simply catch up to them.

You then mention C.C. who has been poor in the few games he's played in the playoffs. But you don't mention that he was dominate down the stretch in games for the Brewers that were akin to playoff games. You are simply cherry picking data and ignoring the whole picture.

If there is clutch, you would be able to show it statistically. You can't, and in fact multiple studies show that numbers stay the same regardless of situations. And even if there was some mythical clutch, there is no way a video game would be able to measure it and discern what players have it and what players don't. Even more reason not to have it in the game.

[EnigmaNemesis]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

You use Ortiz as an example of clutch, yet his playoff numbers don't really differ much from his regular season numbers. He was "clutch" in 2004, but not a clutch player in 2003 and 2008? How does a player go from choke artist to clutch back to choke artist over his career? He doesn't. Statistical averages simply catch up to them.

You then mention C.C. who has been poor in the few games he's played in the playoffs. But you don't mention that he was dominate down the stretch in games for the Brewers that were akin to playoff games. You are simply cherry picking data and ignoring the whole picture.

In 2003 he was not in the same situations and in 08 he was injured all season.

In CC's case, regular season games no matter what do not amount to the playoff games, when it counts. Different beasts, and different mind sets to the players I am sure. And he has proven not to perform in the post season games.

That is why I said, they cant measure situations, because EVERY situation is different, and you are not in the players head or heart at the time. And to hit those game winning shots when down 0 games to 3 to lift then into the World Series is pretty damn clutch. When other players such as A-rod faced in similar (bot has deep) situations does not perform.

That is why they say Jeter is Captain Clutch in the playoffs. Just an extra level turned on you do not see in the regular season stint of games.

Statistics cant measure how the player feels, because they resort back to the regular season to try and draw data, in which is a totally different player mondset half the time.

I understand why they have these studies, but unless you are in the head and hooked up to a heart/brain monitor, it is all subjective.

I think we have to agree to disagree on this one. Because we both have excellent points, and both cant disprove one or the other due to the fact you are not inside the players head. Until then (when tech gets there) we will know.

[phillyfan23]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

to say there is no clutch in baseball is pretty absurd. It goes from player to player and it's there in EVERY sports not just baseball.

you telling me Roethlisberger isn't more clutch than a Mcnabb??

come on....

you can't use stats for everything. If you look at stats for every player of course they will show that there is no clutch...

player A bats 300 in season play.....he bats .350 in the playoffs

player B bats 300 in season play...... he bats .250 in the playoffs

take the avg of the 2 and there is no clutch...

get what I mean?

[bears5122]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

In 2003 he was not in the same situations and in 08 he was injured all season.

In CC's case, regular season games no matter what do not amount to the playoff games, when it counts. Different beasts, and different mind sets to the players I am sure. And he has proven not to perform in the post season games.

That is why I said, they cant measure situations, because EVERY situation is different, and you are not in the players head or heart at the time. And to hit those game winning shots when down 0 games to 3 to lift then into the World Series is pretty damn clutch. When other players such as A-rod faced in similar (bot has deep) situations does not perform.

That is why they say Jeter is Captain Clutch in the playoffs. Just an extra level turned on you do not see in the regular season stint of games.

Statistics cant measure how the player feels, because they resort back to the regular season to try and draw data, in which is a totally different player mondset half the time.

I understand why they have these studies, but unless you are in the head and hooked up to a heart/brain monitor, it is all subjective.

I think we have to agree to disagree on this one. Because we both have excellent points, and both cant disprove one or the other due to the fact you are not inside the players head. Until then (when tech gets there) we will know.

You're still cherry picking data. Saying that when those players do well it's because they are clutch. When they aren't doing well it's either not a clutch situation in their head or some other reason.

Derek Jeter has better stats in the regular season than in the postseason (although they are ridiculously close). So where is this "extra level"? Are you pulling this from any statistics or because ESPN runs a replay of him over and over again in a playoff game?

In any event it's a baseball discussion that will go on forever. I understand your viewpoint but just don't think players magically try harder or do better in clutch spots. I think we like to build heros and villians in our head, and we will cherry pick the data to prove it. When we sit back and look objectively at it and the data, it doesn't look as clutch as we thought.

But the whole point was that whether or not there is a clutch in baseball, it can't be measured and accurately put in a video game.

[EnigmaNemesis]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

...

But the whole point was that whether or not there is a clutch in baseball, it can't be measured and accurately put in a video game.

And I am sure it isn't that big of an effect like you will fear. Case in point, Papi, high clutch, I cant for the life of me get a walk-off or game winning clutch hit with him in the game.



Anyhow, high end playoff performances where you have more RBIs, Runs, and Hits than you do in any regular season series in your career is clutch, getting that late go ahead RBI or HR, or game winning shot is clutch... getting the guy who has been your nemesis to strike out at the plate while bases loaded to preserve a one run lead, is clutch.

Doing all these things when the game is NOT on the line, or some games dont matter as much, where those sites draw their "overall data from" as well .. is NOT clutch. And cant even be included. It doesnt measure the performance data per the situation.

But that is the way I see it. And of course, the way others do not as well.

[SoxFan01605]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

Statistics can meature clutch though. The data shows that amongst all the different situations a player faces, his numbers don't deviate.

You use Ortiz as an example of clutch, yet his playoff numbers don't really differ much from his regular season numbers. He was "clutch" in 2004, but not a clutch player in 2003 and 2008? How does a player go from choke artist to clutch back to choke artist over his career? He doesn't. Statistical averages simply catch up to them.

You then mention C.C. who has been poor in the few games he's played in the playoffs. But you don't mention that he was dominate down the stretch in games for the Brewers that were akin to playoff games. You are simply cherry picking data and ignoring the whole picture.

If there is clutch, you would be able to show it statistically. You can't, and in fact multiple studies show that numbers stay the same regardless of situations. And even if there was some mythical clutch, there is no way a video game would be able to measure it and discern what players have it and what players don't. Even more reason not to have it in the game.

First, you're arguing beyond what your references claim. Neither state there is no such thing as clutch, they just don't acknowledge that a player is inherently more clutch than another. They view it as situational. (BTW, they aren't really separate references-in terms of usefullness- as one pulls pretty much directly from the other)

The reason stats don't bear it out is because it is dependent on other variables (skill, situation, mental state, etc). Meaning a player can be inherently more or less reliable to perform in clutch situations than another. The averaging out you speak of is looking at raw numbers at the back end and not taking the individual variables into consideration and can't quantify "clutch" on it's own merits.

If you are honestly sitting here and trying to argue that there is no psychological aspects coming into play in intense situations, then you are ignoring numerous psychological and sociological (and even physiological) findings to the contrary.


It sounds more like a nitpick on terms because you've decided "clutch" is a "myth" without regard to the concepts behind it.

EDIT: And BTW...lol...how did we get on THIS topic?

[bears5122]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

First, you're arguing beyond what your references claim. Neither state there is no such thing as clutch, they just don't acknowledge that a player is inherently more clutch than another. They view it as situational. (BTW, they aren't really separate references-in terms of usefullness- as one pulls pretty much directly from the other)

The reason stats don't bear it out is because it is dependent on other variables (skill, situation, mental state, etc). Meaning a player can be inherently more or less reliable to perform in clutch situations than another. The averaging out you speak of is looking at raw numbers at the back end and not taking the individual variables into consideration and can't quantify "clutch" on it's own merits.

If you are honestly sitting here and trying to argue that there is no psychological aspects coming into play in intense situations, then you are ignoring numerous psychological and sociological (and even physiological) findings to the contrary.


It sounds more like a nitpick on terms because you've decided "clutch" is a "myth" without regard to the concepts behind it.

EDIT: And BTW...lol...how did we get on THIS topic?

Please post these psychological and sociological findings. I am always interested in reading up on baseball data.

I don't understand your argument though. You say that clutch is a factor and that there are clutch and non-clutch players. Then you say that the actual on-field performances (statistics) don't show it though. Kind of like saying there are good and bad pitchers in baseball, but what they actually do on the field doesn't show it.

I don't doubt that there is a psychological element to the game and that it may have a small effect on a player. But I don't think it magically turns a mediocre player into Cy Young. The media and our own perception play a major role in what we believe is clutch and not clutch. J.D. Drew is hailed as a clutch player these days. Just ask a Red Sox fan the guy they least wanted up in a tight spot a few years ago.

[DallasRocks]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

Well not to say there is a comeback code, but I just played a game where I was leading 6-2 in the 6th and they scored 4 runs in 4 batters!! It was like I didn't even blink and the game was tied, I wasn't doing anything different then before when I was holding them down, but I did end up winning 8-7

[SoxFan01605]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

I don't understand your argument though. You say that clutch is a factor and that there are clutch and non-clutch players. Then you say that the actual on-field performances (statistics) don't show it though. Kind of like saying there are good and bad pitchers in baseball, but what they actually do on the field doesn't show it.

lol...you are apparently thinking in extremes.

Your analogy for reflective stats is heavily flawed (or another exxageration). Please, re-read what I typed:

"The reason stats don't bear it out is because it is dependent on other variables (skill, situation, mental state, etc). Meaning a player can be inherently more or less reliable to perform in clutch situations than another. The averaging out you speak of is looking at raw numbers at the back end and not taking the individual variables into consideration and can't quantify "clutch" on it's own merits."


I said that it can't really be quantified because it's DEPENDENT on other variables. There's no stat for heartrate, stress level, emotional state...lol. These are FACTORS in a players performance...same as physical health, fatigue, intelligence, etc.

Bottom line stats can't definitively reflect to what degree of influence they had on performance. It's a visual indicator. Some players more than others (due to internal physiological responses to stress) will perform worse than others in these "clutch" scenarios.

The only way people can really quantify such performance is by recording various situational stats. These are obviously very broad and don't tell the whole story, but do indicate who has more propensity to perform or fall off in these situations.

I'd also agree that no player becomes particularly better in these situations. Some do however "lock in" (basically focus) and have a greater chance to succeed.

Other players don't handle the pressures as well and fall off (basically, lose focus) in similar situations.

Also, positive/negative performance on the field goes beyong baseline stats. I'm sure you've heard the expression "won't be seen in the boxscore" before. You can help your team by moving a runner over, working a long count, handling a pitching staff (in the case of a catcher), etc.

Not everything is quantified via formula as you seem to infer in your argument. I'm not saying you aren't aware of that, but you seem to have (at least in this case) grasped onto an exxagerated belief that, again, goes beyond the data you reference.

I don't doubt that there is a psychological element to the game and that it may have a small effect on a player. But I don't think it magically turns a mediocre player into Cy Young. The media and our own perception play a major role in what we believe is clutch and not clutch. J.D. Drew is hailed as a clutch player these days. Just ask a Red Sox fan the guy they least wanted up in a tight spot a few years ago.

lol...another example of extreme. C'mon, where did I say it anything close to resembling anything close to your Cy Young comment? I never made an argument that players become some form of "superman" when the moment arises...lol.

I simply stated that there is enough info available to believe certain players do perform better than others in "clutch" situations. I even acknowledged it varies based on situation.

Performance under stress is not an "all men are created equal" type attribute. Some handle it better than others. You could be the most skilled player and struggle under certain situations if you fail to manage stress. Yes, things balance out over time...that's usually due to situation and circumstance.

Look at A-Rod. He performed at or near his averages in the postseason. Then the collapse against Boston in 2004 happened where he didn't perform well. He hasn't since.

This is a confidence issue, but can obviously effect how he performs in the "clutch." Why then and not any other time?

Simply because, he's not being labeled a choke artist in April, so there is no pressure to perform. It ratchets up up bit when October hits and the media, fans, and teammates are all looking at him a little closer. This causes more stress, reduces confidence, and makes him less reliable in the clutch.

Does that mean he can't perform in the clutch? Of course not. It just means that he's not the guy you want up there (probabaly not the guy he wants up there either...lol).

That's my point, "clutch" isn't a "myth." Maybe perception has given it mythical status for some players, but that only cements it in an odd way.

It's like a "self-fulfilling prophesy." If a guy believes he's clutch because everyone says so, then he is. Why? Because he's more likely to not be worrying about coming through and instead will be more focused on the task.

A guy labeled "not-clutch" is more likely to fail because he's trying to shed a label. Happens all the time (and, of course, varies with personality).

If you were arguing that some of the concepts or perceptions surrounding "clutch" are false, I'd agree. I don't agree, however, that clutch is a myth.


I guess I'm saying I'm not really sure what your argument is exactly...lol. You seem to first argue "clutch" is a myth, but then you argue a point (and reference material) that "clutch" is misperceived and falsely attributed as a "hard" attribute. I can agree with you on the second point.

I don't believe there as many "clutch" players as people think. I do believe stats bear out (in most major sports) that there are extraordinary players that "rise to the occasion" under extraordinary circumstances. Not go far beyond their range of ability, but certainly don't wilt under the bright lights of such situations.

As I said a couple times, what you referenced isn't saying that there's no such thing as clutch, they're saying that no player is specifically a clutch player.

So which are you arguing? That clutch doesn't exist, or that clutch players don't exist? Or both?

Maybe we are talking about two different aspects or misunderstanding each other, because you seem to be pursuing two fronts...lol.

EDIT: and sorry for the drawn out responses...lol. I try and warn people when my long-windedness is about to strike, but I also think as I go and want to make sure I'm clear. So the warning got skipped...lol. Oops!

[SoxFan01605]

Re: Too many two out inning rallies by AI!! (Comeback AI Discussion)

Also, in reference to the video game, the clutch rating isn't really reflective of a player being clutch, it's an indicator of how a batter/pitcher performs in various "clutch" situations (which ARE statistically referenced) in-game.

You may disagree with the terminology in play (we can call it "situational" if you prefer), but the concept behind how it's reflected in-game is not unsupported.

Is there an aspect that concerns you as it relates to "clutch" (again bearing in mind that the rating is not necessarily reflective of the "mythical" properties you feel people attach to it)?

That's why I asked how we got on this topic. In what manner does your "myth" theory relate to the game?