Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

[JoeCoolMan24]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

So from doing this exercise, I will go down the list of players I actually know about and comment on how they progressed in my opinion....

Trayce Thompson: Pretty good actually. He ended up being an 80 overall by age 28, which makes him a 4th OF type guy, which seems accurate for a peak age.
Courtney Hawkins: Far too low. By age 25 he was a 78 overall, and he had dropped to a B potential, which probably caps him around an 85 or so. I'd change him from a 52 to a 62.
Bubba Starling: By age 26 he is an 87. This actually seems pretty accurate. You could assume by age 28 he would be around a 90-92. Good rating.
Addison Russell: His ratings seemed a bit aggressive. Became a 90 rating by age 24, which seems a couple years too early for a guy who is a borderline top 50 prospect right now.
Javier Baez: This seemed pretty accurate. Became a 90 overall by age 26.
Jorge Soler: This was a little aggressive. Became a 91 overall by age 25. I'd start him at a 70 instead of a 75.
Albert Almora: I think this one was the most aggressive one by far. Became an 87 overall by age 21, and a 90 by age 22. That's a freakishly fast pace that very few players should ever do. Instead of him starting at a 74, I'd nerf him down to a 64 or 65.
Kevin Gausman: This one seemed pretty good, maybe a little conservative actually. Became an 88 by age 27.

[RoughRiders9]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

I think this will be the last season I'll sim. A lot of these top prospects are starting to reach their peaks, or all-star status, so I'll just stop here. I'll keep the file though in case anyone wants me to go further, or to check on other prospects not listed here.....


Pre 2019
Trayce Thompson, Previous Overall 77, New Overall 80, +3 change (28 years old)
Courtney Hawkins, Previous Overall 74, New Overall 78, +4 change (25 years old)
Adalberto Mondesi, Previous Overall 74, New Overall 78, +4 change (24 years old)
Bubba Starling, Previous Overall 83, New Overall 87, +4 change (26 years old)
Addison Russell, Previous Overall 90, New Overall 90, +0 change (25 years old)
Carlos Correa, Previous Overall 79, New Overall 83, +4 change (24 years old)
Javier Baez, Previous Overall 86, New Overall 90, +4 change (26 years old)
Jorge Soler, Previous Overall 92, New Overall 92, +0 change (27 years old)
Albert Almora, Previous Overall 90, New Overall 90, +0 change (24 years old)
David Dahl, Previous Overall 90, New Overall 93, +3 change (25 years old)
Kevin Gausman, Previous Overall 88, New Overall 92, +4 change (28 years old)
Roberto Osuna, Previous Overall 72, New Overall 76, +4 change (24 years old) (Downgraded to B Potential)
Daniel Norris, Previous Overall 82, New Overall 85, +3 change (25 years old)

How are you running these sims? Like, how do you deal with all of the trades/injuries/lineups that pop up during the sim?

Also, would like to hear your thoughts/comments about all of the sims and the rating boosts and that sort of things.

Thanks, bud.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

How are you running these sims? Like, how do you deal with all of the trades/injuries/lineups that pop up during the sim?

Also, would like to hear your thoughts/comments about all of the sims and the rating boosts and that sort of things.

Thanks, bud.

I decided to do the franchise as the Astros, just picked a random team that wasn't the Sox or Cubs and didn't have a ton of top prospects.

As for which prospects I picked it was obviously going to be a collection of the Sox and Cubs player discussed here, but then I chose a random sample of A potential players around the league, trying to get guys I knew about, unfortunately I picked 4 or 5 that I didn't know too much about, which seems pointless now. I tried to pick really young and raw guys, not the 25 year old top prospects because they'd peak much earlier. Looked for guys 19-22 in age.

I made sure to SIM every spring training, because I've heard hitting END SPRING TRAINING skips development.

I changed everything I could to AUTO, so the computer set line ups, made trades, signings, drafts, ect. I wanted to be as non-influential as I could to the league.

And that's pretty much it. Right before every spring training started I went through all the rosters and found my prospects I was following (should have turned trades off, it made it a pain when people were being constantly traded).

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

So from doing this exercise, I will go down the list of players I actually know about and comment on how they progressed in my opinion....

Trayce Thompson: Pretty good actually. He ended up being an 80 overall by age 28, which makes him a 4th OF type guy, which seems accurate for a peak age.
Courtney Hawkins: Far too low. By age 25 he was a 78 overall, and he had dropped to a B potential, which probably caps him around an 85 or so. I'd change him from a 52 to a 62.
Bubba Starling: By age 26 he is an 87. This actually seems pretty accurate. You could assume by age 28 he would be around a 90-92. Good rating.
Addison Russell: His ratings seemed a bit aggressive. Became a 90 rating by age 24, which seems a couple years too early for a guy who is a borderline top 50 prospect right now.
Javier Baez: This seemed pretty accurate. Became a 90 overall by age 26.
Jorge Soler: This was a little aggressive. Became a 91 overall by age 25. I'd start him at a 70 instead of a 75.
Albert Almora: I think this one was the most aggressive one by far. Became an 87 overall by age 21, and a 90 by age 22. That's a freakishly fast pace that very few players should ever do. Instead of him starting at a 74, I'd nerf him down to a 64 or 65.
Kevin Gausman: This one seemed pretty good, maybe a little conservative actually. Became an 88 by age 27.

The thing to take into consideration is how the game handles regression as well. I tried to have them reach their potential around 25/26 since like Yanks pointed out it seems like that will stop at around age 28. I'm in agreement with Yanks on the ratings for the Cubs players, 73 for Baez, 74 for Soler and 68 for Almora. I thought that Almora would progress as Knights tables indicated so I used the B table, but it seems like he is getting raised to an A- each sim.

If the A potential players are started much lower they might never make their potential. I feel like Baez and Soler hitting their potentials at 25/26 and peaking there for a few years is perfectly reasonable.

I'm going to enter in seanjeezy's pitch edits for some of the MLB Cubs pitchers and also rerate some position players using what's been posted in the Hybrid OSFM thread. I'm using the OSFM corrections v1.0 as a base. Changes Fujikawa to CP and I think I was a bit low on his control (he went up to an 84 when changed to CP and 85 when I bumped his control) and Marmol to RP.

This roster will also have the re-rates to OSFM players so Baez at 73, Soler 74, Almora 68 and Lake at 63 with 82 arm (looking at Knight's table this gives him a very good arm).

[MrOldboy]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

OK, so I made a few edits, not much to be honest as I'm a bit tired. I might add in more edits, but for now this is what I'm going to use for my franchise until a better fully edited roster comes out with OSFM base.

I edited Baez, Soler, Almora, and Lake. to 73, 74, 68 and 63 respectively.

Changed Vizcaino, Cabrera and Carpenter to SP.

Changed Fujikawa to CP, bumped his control a bit. 85 OVL now.

Entered in seanjeezy's pitch edits for about 10 or so MLB pitchers, Samardzija, Wood, Garza, Marmol, Russell, Camp and a few others.

I tried to get guys on there 2013 rosters, i.e. Soler, Baez, Almora to single A.

I didn't do any position player edits.

I'll post it up on the vault as CubsOSFMver2

[Michael Wacha]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

"Far too low. By age 25 he was a 78 overall, and he had dropped to a B potential, which probably caps him around an 85 or so. I'd change him from a 52 to a 62."
-
Which is perfect. Hawkins isn't a great prospect and should probably be a B anyway.

[ItAllFades]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Anyone have a good stance for Nate The Great?

His default one in game is way too high for what he actually uses in real life. He's a lot more crouched in real life. I just haven't seen one that catches my eye yet.

[hjgilber]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

You trust Keith Law, the laughing stock of the "prospect guys" over Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus rankings???



Oooh boy.....this is all starting to make sense now.

That's not really fair. Keith Law gets negative rep from uneducated prospect followers because he works for ESPN. In reality, Law is very good, just as good as BA or BP. All three are very good though, so it's important to look at all the rankings, not just one.

[hjgilber]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Keon Barnum a 99? You seem to forget I am striving for realism, not boosting my prospects for my favorite team. *cough cough*.

I am just trying to help the community and fans of other teams by giving an outside opinion on players I don't have emotional interest in. Sometimes it's hard to rate players you want to succeed fairly.

Either way, I am going to sim 3-4 years w/ these rosters just to find out how these guys turn out, and then make decision from there on how I want to tinker w/ the ratings. If it turns out these guys are getting to be high 80's-low 90's by the time they reach ages 26-29, then fine I'll know I need to boost some Sox 'spects, but if they are becoming superstar 90+ rated guys by age 23, then there is an obvious problem.

I'll let you know what I find.

You also shouldn't really complain about the Sox prospects sucking. They have a terrible system. It's not the rating process, it's the players.

[hjgilber]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Adorable.

Actually, I have even said here that I don't know if the Cubs players are being entirely overrated, or if the Sox players (the couple good ones) have been incredibly underrated. The guy who made the Sox ratings explained to me that Hawkins is a 52 because he is so young and 4 years away from the majors. I then asked if that was how it should be done, then why would Almora be a 74, when him and Hawkins are similar ages, skill sets, except Hawkins has played at higher levels than Almora. He didn't know, but surmised it could be a combination of him being harsh on Sox players, and whoever made the Cubs rosters being way too high.

Thus, I came here, started a discussion, and found out rather quickly that the perception Cubs fans here have of their team is much higher than reputable critics in the minor league world (BA, BP). The answer seems clear to me now how I should go about editing the rosters, but just to make sure I am doing the right thing, I am going to sim 4-5 seasons for myself and see how these guys progress, and then we will ALL have our answer.

Until then, you can knock off the "CUBS HA.TER!!!" routine. I already stated before the conversation even started that I have nothing against the Cubs, I don't even acknowledge them as being of any relevance to the Sox. The reason I am commenting in this thread and not the 28 other teams is because outside of the Sox prospects, I have the 2nd most knowledge of the Cubs system due to being friends with many Cubs fans, and living in the Chicago area. That's why I am here, not because of any irrational hatred for a non-rival.

Also, keep in mind with Hawkins vs Almora/Soler/Baez, that the Cubs 3 are all better prospects than Hawkins and the ratings should reflect that. Hawkins is a good prospect, but he would be #4 at BEST if he was with the Cubs.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Also, keep in mind with Hawkins vs Almora/Soler/Baez, that the Cubs 3 are all better prospects than Hawkins and the ratings should reflect that. Hawkins is a good prospect, but he would be #4 at BEST if he was with the Cubs.

I think Almora and Hawkins are very comparable, I'm not sure why the feeling is that by age 22 it's okay that he will be an all-star 90+ rating, but for Hawkins, by age 25 only being a 78 and just a B prospect is fine. Where is this perceived large talent gap coming from? They were born 5 months apart, provide similar skill sets (Almora more of a defensive athlete, Hawkins more of a powerful hitter
), both play OF, they were drafted 7 picks apart. Almora is ranked #33, Hawkins #55.

I'm not seeing the reason that one guy is expected to be great, and the other is a fringe prospect.

As for Baez, yeah, I agree he is the best of those 4 guys. As for Soler...eh, I don't know, he's the hardest to judge being from Cuba. He obviously gets a ton of hype because he was the last big Cuban to be signed before the new rule was put in place, but he's the most unknown of these 4 guys.

EDIT: Also, my ratings I suggested HAVE reflected it....

I suggested Soler be a 70, Baez be a 64, Almora be a 64, and Hawkins be a 62.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

You also shouldn't really complain about the Sox prospects sucking. They have a terrible system. It's not the rating process, it's the players.

Them having a terrible system does not mean any newly acquired prospects become any less relevant. I've already said the system sucks, you don't need to try and throw it back to me like an insult. The last couple drafts have been very good and it makes no difference what was in the system prior to those guys coming in.

[jseward92]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

I suggested Soler be a 70, Baez be a 64, Almora be a 64, and Hawkins be a 62.

Baez a 64? Only one I disagree with. Try a 73.

Why are we talking about W Sox guys? Not to be a snot but this is the Cubs OSFM board

[JoeCoolMan24]

Re: Cubs Player Potential Discussion: 2013 OSFM roster

Baez a 64? Only one I disagree with. Try a 73.

Why are we talking about W Sox guys? Not to be a snot but this is the Cubs OSFM board

Did you see my simulations? Baez became a 90 by age 26, and he was still improving. Had I simmed another year (and I still could if you wanted me to), he'd likely become a 92-94 by age 27. That's a VERY good progression. You are wanting to start him off 9 pts HIGHER than that? He will become a 90 overall by age 23 or 24 then. How many players become perennial all-stars at 23 or 24? Very few. Remember that the minor leagues are still a crap shoot. You can't just assume every top prospect will even make the big leagues, let alone become all-stars at 23 or 24.

I think his 64 rating that was given in the original OSFM is very fair.

[hjgilber]

I think Almora and Hawkins are very comparable, I'm not sure why the feeling is that by age 22 it's okay that he will be an all-star 90+ rating, but for Hawkins, by age 25 only being a 78 and just a B prospect is fine. Where is this perceived large talent gap coming from? They were born 5 months apart, provide similar skill sets (Almora more of a defensive athlete, Hawkins more of a powerful hitter
), both play OF, they were drafted 7 picks apart. Almora is ranked #33, Hawkins #55.

I'm not seeing the reason that one guy is expected to be great, and the other is a fringe prospect.

As for Baez, yeah, I agree he is the best of those 4 guys. As for Soler...eh, I don't know, he's the hardest to judge being from Cuba. He obviously gets a ton of hype because he was the last big Cuban to be signed before the new rule was put in place, but he's the most unknown of these 4 guys.

EDIT: Also, my ratings I suggested HAVE reflected it....

I suggested Soler be a 70, Baez be a 64, Almora be a 64, and Hawkins be a 62.

The talent gap between Almora and Hawkins is pretty evident. Like you said 7 picks higher (in terms of draft ROI that's a huge difference), Almora is also 6 months younger and already rated 22 spots higher. They aren't in the same tier, Almora is blatantly the superior prospect, especially since one of the places you linked (BP) I believe has Almora as the Cubs #1 prospect.

Almora is clearly better than Hawkins (who should easily be a B/B+, not an A lol) and the ratings should reflect that. I don't think it should be a 20 point difference, but it shouldn't be only 2 points like you suggest. I would lower Almora to around 69-70, and have Hawkins around a 60-61.