Re: 2015 MLB Hot Stove thread
It's a very good rotation 1-3, but that 4 and 5 is not so great. There's upside there for sure.
I got all of the LOL'ing out of my system already. But, this is just sour grapes and factually incorrect in some spots. I can't stress how much I strongly disagree with your POV on this move.
Zobrist doesn't turn 35 until May, so that means he'll turn 36 in year 2, 37 in year 3, and then play out the entire final year as a 37/38 year-old. There is no 39-year-old Zobrist per this contract.
Zobrist's WAR hasn't gone down every season since 2011. It was 5.0 in '13 and 5.5 in '14 according to fWAR. Both are numbers that Starlin Castro couldn't dream of reaching at this point. Zobrist collected more WAR over those 2 years than Castro has in his entire career to this point (11.3 fWAR). But all Zobrist has to do is be a 2 WAR/yr player for the life of the contract for the Cubs to break even. We can let the Yankees deal with a starting 2B that posted a .296 OBP last season.
So you don't think Zobrist is a good defender? Have you looked beyond 2015 where he was rehabbing from a knee injury? He's been a very good defensive player throughout his career. Even if you don't buy that, according to FG he had DRS of -7 last year at 2B. Castro was a DRS of +2 at 2B last year. So at most that's 9 runs. Similarly, if you look at UZR/150, Castro was about -4 runs and Zobrist was about -13 runs, again just 9 runs, not 27. The 27-run difference is just a ridiculously flawed stat or a flawed interpretation of a stat. Starlin is not Andrelton Simmons here...
You'll come around on this deal.
It's a very good rotation 1-3, but that 4 and 5 is not so great. There's upside there for sure.
I got all of the LOL'ing out of my system already. But, this is just sour grapes and factually incorrect in some spots. I can't stress how much I strongly disagree with your POV on this move.
Zobrist doesn't turn 35 until May, so that means he'll turn 36 in year 2, 37 in year 3, and then play out the entire final year as a 37/38 year-old. There is no 39-year-old Zobrist per this contract.
Zobrist's WAR hasn't gone down every season since 2011. It was 5.0 in '13 and 5.5 in '14 according to fWAR. Both are numbers that Starlin Castro couldn't dream of reaching at this point. Zobrist collected more WAR over those 2 years than Castro has in his entire career to this point (11.3 fWAR). But all Zobrist has to do is be a 2 WAR/yr player for the life of the contract for the Cubs to break even. We can let the Yankees deal with a starting 2B that posted a .296 OBP last season.
So you don't think Zobrist is a good defender? Have you looked beyond 2015 where he was rehabbing from a knee injury? He's been a very good defensive player throughout his career. Even if you don't buy that, according to FG he had DRS of -7 last year at 2B. Castro was a DRS of +2 at 2B last year. So at most that's 9 runs. Similarly, if you look at UZR/150, Castro was about -4 runs and Zobrist was about -13 runs, again just 9 runs, not 27. The 27-run difference is just a ridiculously flawed stat or a flawed interpretation of a stat. Starlin is not Andrelton Simmons here...
You'll come around on this deal.
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