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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
Correa is good, but still feels like an overpay to me.
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
That's a massive overpay. No thanks. Giants can have that.
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
13 years JESUS!! I will be in my mid 50s by the time that contract ends. I guess that is the new normal that the Padres and Harper have started decade long contracts
he can thank the lockout for that contract.. he stayed during it sitting with no one then decided to do a 1 year contract to think about it. then BOOM he has that big signing now.,Comment
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
I'm not sure this Correa contract is as bad as it seems on the surface. With 7 years in the league Correa has accumulated 39.5WAR through age 27. That's an average of 5.6 WAR per year including few years he was hurt and the 2020 shortened season. His last 2 seasons have been 7.2 and 5.4 WAR. 2 years ago he finished 2nd and last year he was 10th.
Just a comparison Ripken had 43.7 WAR by age 27. He played until he was 40, finished with 95.9 WAR and only in his age 40 season did he have a negative WAR year. Larkin had 25.3 WAR by age 27 (6 seasons) and finished with 70.5WAR.
I would think it's reasonable to expect he accomplishes that 5.6 average at least 5-7 more times. I'm not saying Correa is going to catch Ripken's 95.9 WAR but I would think we can conservatively project if healthy Correa should finish his career at or above 75ish-80ish WAR.
At $26.92M per year you're only paying for a 3.4 WAR player. Ripken's last year over 3.4 WAR was his age 36 Season. Larkin's last year above 3.4 was age 35. If Correa does manage to put up 40 more WAR over the next 13 years that's 8.75M. 35 WAR over the next 13 years is 10M. 30 WAR would be 11.66M. 45 WAR would be 7.78M.
Ripken is an all time great and I'm not saying Correa is as good as or will have the same longevity of "The Ironman". I just feel it's reasonable to expect, again if healthy, going into his prime he has the potential and ability to put up some monster numbers over the next 5ish years then perform above that 3.4 WAR well into his 30s. It's reasonable to project he finishes his career with more WAR than Larkin. That makes him a HOFer depending on how those Astros get treated on the ballot.
Trea Turner has 29.7 WAR at age 29 (8 seasons) and he'll make 27.27M over the next 11 years. Lindor is at 26.6 WAR at age 28 (8 seasons) and he'll make 34.1M over the next 9 seasons. Correa is 10 WAR+ better with 1 fewer season then both of those players and he's younger.
This is in my opinion why just reading the top line of $350M for 13 and not really thinking about it makes it look much worse than it actually is. Again, assuming he stays healthy it's likely he performs the value expected for that contract.Last edited by Amoo316; 12-14-2022, 04:16 AM.Golf: Bubba
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
Apparently everyone has smarten up to the fact that contract are getting longer to circumvent or at least ameliorate the tax thingy.
That's fine, but I think something has to be said about these guys being in their 40's playing just to collect a check (not that anyone is crying a tear for them
). Like, look at Miguel Cabrera, what are we doing? At some point just send the guy home (with their check); it is a poor spectacle for the fans, it hurts the team on the field and everyone is aware some guys don't retire just to collect their moneys (I don't blame them).
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
Yeah it seems like teams are willing to go long on some of these deals and treat the last few years as if it was deferred money, with no expectations that the player with still be productive at that point. The (comparatively) low AAV takes away some of the risk (and the tax burden) since they will be getting good value for the prime years. And heck theres always the chance that the guy ages well and can still make up some of that value in the back half of the contract. If not, I'm sure we'll see teams cut bait a year or two early on like the Angels did with Pujols and the Cubs did with Heyward.
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
That's exactly what's happened. They may also be locking in players now with the thought the ceilings may go up in the next CBA which is only 4 years away. Who knows what the players are going to demand 4 years from now, but if attendance and media rights keep going up, the players are going to get paid more.
Here's fangraphs current $/WAR from December 2021
If you remove the Relief Pitchers (RP in CHart) the number is even lower.
Essentially all these big contracts are expected to generate $8.5M/WAR in their prime years and only $6.5M/WAR after.
Those numbers should drop some after this free agent class for the top end considering guys are signing for lower AAVs now.Last edited by Amoo316; 12-14-2022, 09:58 AM.Golf: Bubba
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
Bummer that the Cubs missed out on the big bats in the SS market. I like Nico but they really needed to add another big bat and SS was the position to get that this year in free agency. I guess they can still try for Dansby, but he is definitely not the offensive threat that the other 3 are, and I think he is going get paid more than I'd be comfortable (but I guess it's not my money).
Hard to see what they can do from here that would make this team a real playoff contender in 2023. Just gonna be a 75-80 win team at best, waiting on our prospects to develop....most of the top guys wont debut next year. Was hoping they could jump start the "retool" this offseason by spending some of the money they saved last year **sigh**
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
Hearing some scuttle that the Braves may be open to trading Max Fried
Also Yanks offer to Rodon was short of his asking price.I can't shave with my eyes closed, meaning each day I have to look at myself in the mirror and respect who I see.
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
Jays could have interest in Cueto.
I'd rather him than Kikuchi or White as thr 5th SP. Then those guys could be the 6-7 starters if injuries happen.Comment
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I can't shave with my eyes closed, meaning each day I have to look at myself in the mirror and respect who I see.
I miss the old days of Operation Sports :(
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Re: 2022 - 2023 Hot Stove Thread
I think that's pretty fair in this market. He has alot of injury history. But that's not a bad asking price. Yankees are stupid if that's gonna separate them.
You lost Taillon. You gotta replace those guys. Cole Cortes and Rodon would be a solid 3. Not to mention Rodon is sorely needed lefty.
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