The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

[JODYE]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

If Russell is as good as advertised, Baez WILL be the odd man out. I can tell you, not only his swing, but his approach is NOT going to cut it at the major league level. You can see already, the vast difference in ability, and also plate discipline and fundamentals between Soler and Baez, and it's really not close. Really wouldn't be surprised to see him moved for pitching in the off season.

People like to make the Sheffield comparison with Baez, but I feel that is lazy. There is a huge fundamental difference between those two guys and it has to do with their hands. Yes they both cocked the bat, but the biggest difference was Sheffield did it, before the pitcher actually delivered the ball towards the plate. If you watch his mechanics in slow motion, you will see that his hands were actually in a great hitting position at the time the ball was released, allowing him to get the bat into the zone quickly leading with the hands. Baez, on the other hand, starts his hitch, as the ball his being delivered, putting him in an extremely poor position fundamentally, and forcing him to have to have to reset his hands, before he ever actually goes at the baseball. Can he make the adjustment? Possibly. But how long with the adjustment take? And even if he does make the adjustment, are the other facets of his game, worth investing in long term? His approach at the plate, is about as liberal as you can get. Guys like that are a dime a dozen in the majors. Sure he has big power, but if you're only hitting .220, what good is that actually doing for your team? Couple that with the fact that he also, really not a good fielder and during his time in the minors he easily surpassed Castro's error rate during his tenure.

With guys like Alcantara, Bryant, Russell, Villanueva, and Candelario all capable of playing the infield, somebody has to go. If he doesn't show improvement over the course of next season (if he is not moved before then) then it is only a matter of time before he goes.

Also, the Castro hate baffles me, but considering the source, the hyperbole is not surprising. If anyone thinks Castro is a problem, then you really haven't watched Cubs baseball. Guy has had a great bounce back year after the disaster experiment with Sveum. Posted career highs in OPS, SLG and OBP and played great defense pretty much all year long. He got back to being the hitter he is capable of being, and is only getting better. I'll take a guy who has a couple mental mistakes a season, but hovers around .300 at the dish everyday of the week. He's locked up until 2020 on a team friendly deal. He is going to be a Cub for a long time.

[fugazi]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

How is .300 and 20 HR out of the realm of possibilities? Not yet 25, he was hitting .280-.295 most of the year and even without playing the last month will finish with 14 HR. I'd say .300 and 20 HR is right in his wheelhouse.

No one deserves "hate" to be brought on them in terms of getting injured. It's just bad of people to say insensitive stuff when guys get hurt playing the game. You slide hundreds of times and something is bound to go wrong on one of them, it's just people's jaded lens of seeing it through that makes them say stuff like he doesn't know how to slide or he brought it on himself.

It's not right to blame Welington Castillo either, but HE was the one telling Castro to get down even though the ball was being cut. Starlin got caught in between a little.

I hope we keep Starlin Castro through the duration of his contract and that he retires as a Cub. I don't see anything wrong with him or how he plays the game. It's just that when he messes up, it's a BIG DEAL. When another guy admires his hit off the bat and ends up at 1st on a ball off the wall or gets picked off, you just don't hear about it, but it happens all the time.

Just so you know...I never said he deserved "hate" for getting injured or whatever...just saying, whether you like him or not, it takes more than a "good" year to convince everyone to forget the past 2 or 3...and that would be true of whomever it was. Though you are probably right, he might get picked on unfairly.

It's especially difficult when you make 2 baserunning gaffes in 3 games (iirc) and then botch a slide...which, of course, I agree is the kind of thing that can easily lead to injury. It was an ugly slide, though, even before it turned bad.

I remember Moises Alou breaking his ankle simply running between 1st and 2nd...it happens.

As for his development, injury aside, one has to be pleased with his numbers...

but numbers are just numbers...and while I hope the naysayers are wrong (including myself, at times), I don't think they are pointing at his numbers...they're pointing at his brain...

And while some see improvement there, others don't.

Will I be happy if he is a .300+ hitter, nearing the league lead in doubles, and 18+ HRs? Absolutely. As I've said before, what concerns me is his mentality if/when he gets "demoted" out of the heart of the order.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

If Russell is as good as advertised, Baez WILL be the odd man out. I can tell you, not only his swing, but his approach is NOT going to cut it at the major league level. You can see already, the vast difference in ability, and also plate discipline and fundamentals between Soler and Baez, and it's really not close. Really wouldn't be surprised to see him moved for pitching in the off season.

People like to make the Sheffield comparison with Baez, but I feel that is lazy. There is a huge fundamental difference between those two guys and it has to do with their hands. Yes they both cocked the bat, but the biggest difference was Sheffield did it, before the pitcher actually delivered the ball towards the plate. If you watch his mechanics in slow motion, you will see that his hands were actually in a great hitting position at the time the ball was released, allowing him to get the bat into the zone quickly leading with the hands. Baez, on the other hand, starts his hitch, as the ball his being delivered, putting him in an extremely poor position fundamentally, and forcing him to have to have to reset his hands, before he ever actually goes at the baseball. Can he make the adjustment? Possibly. But how long with the adjustment take? And even if he does make the adjustment, are the other facets of his game, worth investing in long term? His approach at the plate, is about as liberal as you can get. Guys like that are a dime a dozen in the majors. Sure he has big power, but if you're only hitting .220, what good is that actually doing for your team? Couple that with the fact that he also, really not a good fielder and during his time in the minors he easily surpassed Castro's error rate during his tenure.

With guys like Alcantara, Bryant, Russell, Villanueva, and Candelario all capable of playing the infield, somebody has to go. If he doesn't show improvement over the course of next season (if he is not moved before then) then it is only a matter of time before he goes.

Also, the Castro hate baffles me, but considering the source, the hyperbole is not surprising. If anyone thinks Castro is a problem, then you really haven't watched Cubs baseball. Guy has had a great bounce back year after the disaster experiment with Sveum. Posted career highs in OPS, SLG and OBP and played great defense pretty much all year long. He got back to being the hitter he is capable of being, and is only getting better. I'll take a guy who has a couple mental mistakes a season, but hovers around .300 at the dish everyday of the week. He's locked up until 2020 on a team friendly deal. He is going to be a Cub for a long time.

Some good points in here, but one ludicrous line of reasoning at one point...

To say after a month or two in the bigs that a 21 year old drafted out of high school in 2011 will be the odd man out and has an approach that will not cut it is a bit hyperbolic itself. Baez's approach is more likely to improve than not and plate discipline is something that was never really stressed until Theo got here in 2012. Even since then, the org has not been comfortable with their hitting instruction until recently and that's been evidenced by turnover of Jaramillo/Rowson/Deer/Buckner, the reshuffling of Brian Harper, Mariano Duncan, and Desi Wilson, along with the hiring of Anthony Iapoce before the 2013 season. So Baez has ripped through the minors without really needing to work counts and has not had this message instilled in him yet. I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis this offseason and into spring training. Comparing him to Soler isn't really fair either, because Soler is more the exception than the rule and has been playing against tougher competition for at least a couple of years longer than Baez going back to his Cuban National Team days while Baez was in high school.

I also think you're artificially crowding the INF with your scenario as Candelario and Villanueva aren't even close to Baez's level of potential--in other words, their presence would never cause an odd man out situation or force a trade with Baez. The other two would just be traded or moved to another position. And we already see that Alcantara seems destined for the OF. He had the highest error rate of any of our current and future middle INF'ers (Baez included).

So, really we have Russell, Bryant, Castro, and Baez for 3 spots. Sure, it could be Baez out in the cold of those 4, but then again the org has been adamant in saying they are keeping the OF warm for Bryant. No one is sure if he ends up at 3B or not. If Bryant goes to LF/RF, then really Baez/Castro/Russell could be 2B/SS/3B in some combination for a decade. There is no reason to trade any of these guys based on a handful of major league ABs. UNLESS you can get a bonafide young ace. And who is giving up an ace for a guy like Baez who you've already listed the warts on anyway? I don't see us getting proper value so I don't see it as very likely, but we'll see.

But the main thing you KNOW if you've followed Baez's career at all is he ALWAYS starts slow at every new level, so why should we expect that to change with MLB? One thing he also ALWAYS has shown is the ability to figure it out and mash. He has the physical ability and innate talents to hit the ball for average and for power--and for power like few others. You don't give up on a skill like that in today's pitching-happy game. I agree that a Sheffield-Baez comparison is lazy for a few reasons, but both had/have bat speed that most major leaguers have only dreamt of.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

Just so you know...I never said he deserved "hate" for getting injured or whatever...just saying, whether you like him or not, it takes more than a "good" year to convince everyone to forget the past 2 or 3...and that would be true of whomever it was. Though you are probably right, he might get picked on unfairly.

It's especially difficult when you make 2 baserunning gaffes in 3 games (iirc) and then botch a slide...which, of course, I agree is the kind of thing that can easily lead to injury. It was an ugly slide, though, even before it turned bad.

I remember Moises Alou breaking his ankle simply running between 1st and 2nd...it happens.

As for his development, injury aside, one has to be pleased with his numbers...

but numbers are just numbers...and while I hope the naysayers are wrong (including myself, at times), I don't think they are pointing at his numbers...they're pointing at his brain...

And while some see improvement there, others don't.

Will I be happy if he is a .300+ hitter, nearing the league lead in doubles, and 18+ HRs? Absolutely. As I've said before, what concerns me is his mentality if/when he gets "demoted" out of the heart of the order.

First of all, you mentioned 'hate' and it seemed like it was in direct response to the ongoing discussion that was talking about Starlin's injury. So I interpreted what you said to mean that he has brought these feelings of 'serves him right to get hurt--he sucks, is lazy, and can't slide!' on himself somehow. Which, of course, would be wrong. But if that's not what you meant, then nvm.

Secondly, 2 or 3 bad years? Are we talking about the same guy? Castro is a 3-time all star in 5 seasons with his rookie year placing him 5th in ROY voting. So he hasn't had 2 or 3 bad years. In fact, it's pretty obvious to see which season was the outlier and that had a lot to do with Dale Sveum not being able to manage his way out of a paper bag.

I think we can agree on most else of what you posted. He does get treated unfairly and he does need to continue to refine his game and mental approach. Hard to believe he just turned 24 before the season and he's got 846 hits to his name, 3 AS games, and 11 fWAR, which at a conservative $5MM per win means he's been worth about $55MM to the Cubs on the field while having pocketed only $11MM or so. That's $44MM surplus value for some Cub fans' #1 villain. I just don't get it.

[fugazi]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

yeah...I meant the general "hate", the "he should be injured" thing is beyond my pale.

I was just trying to smooth out the playing field, so to speak, but pointing out that the two camps are talking about two different things.

the Pro-Castro folks are all about the numbers and the upward trend, etc...
the Anti-Castro folks are all about something more "intangible"...

The former brushes his "approach to the game" aside and says he's a kid, etc...while the latter fixates on some bad performances and pounces on each bonehead play.

As for this guy...I JUST WANT A BLANKETY BLANK WORLD SERIES...and I don't care whose heart has to be broken to get it.

[ThreeKing]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

If Russell is as good as advertised, Baez WILL be the odd man out. I can tell you, not only his swing, but his approach is NOT going to cut it at the major league level. You can see already, the vast difference in ability, and also plate discipline and fundamentals between Soler and Baez, and it's really not close. Really wouldn't be surprised to see him moved for pitching in the off season.

People like to make the Sheffield comparison with Baez, but I feel that is lazy. There is a huge fundamental difference between those two guys and it has to do with their hands. Yes they both cocked the bat, but the biggest difference was Sheffield did it, before the pitcher actually delivered the ball towards the plate. If you watch his mechanics in slow motion, you will see that his hands were actually in a great hitting position at the time the ball was released, allowing him to get the bat into the zone quickly leading with the hands. Baez, on the other hand, starts his hitch, as the ball his being delivered, putting him in an extremely poor position fundamentally, and forcing him to have to have to reset his hands, before he ever actually goes at the baseball. Can he make the adjustment? Possibly. But how long with the adjustment take? And even if he does make the adjustment, are the other facets of his game, worth investing in long term? His approach at the plate, is about as liberal as you can get. Guys like that are a dime a dozen in the majors. Sure he has big power, but if you're only hitting .220, what good is that actually doing for your team? Couple that with the fact that he also, really not a good fielder and during his time in the minors he easily surpassed Castro's error rate during his tenure.

With guys like Alcantara, Bryant, Russell, Villanueva, and Candelario all capable of playing the infield, somebody has to go. If he doesn't show improvement over the course of next season (if he is not moved before then) then it is only a matter of time before he goes.

Also, the Castro hate baffles me, but considering the source, the hyperbole is not surprising. If anyone thinks Castro is a problem, then you really haven't watched Cubs baseball. Guy has had a great bounce back year after the disaster experiment with Sveum. Posted career highs in OPS, SLG and OBP and played great defense pretty much all year long. He got back to being the hitter he is capable of being, and is only getting better. I'll take a guy who has a couple mental mistakes a season, but hovers around .300 at the dish everyday of the week. He's locked up until 2020 on a team friendly deal. He is going to be a Cub for a long time.

Agreed on Baez, but obviously disagree on Castro. Starlin hasn't shown me that his mental lapses will change.

However.....if it comes down to either Baez or Castro going, and it's Javier who's bouncing, then I'm okay with that.

Just not Addison Russell. I purchased the MiLB TV pass and watched the Smokies and Iowa Cubs games this year. Russell is the REAL DEAL.

[CBoller1331]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

However.....if it comes down to either Baez or Castro going, and it's Javier who's bouncing, then I'm okay with that.

None of them have to go, right now there is really NO need to get rid of any of them. If they don't sign an ace this offseason, then it's a different story; but still not necessary.

Also, I think people are overreacting to Baez's bat wag and directly relating it to his struggles. He is still adjusting to major league pitching. Sure he K% is twice his batting average, but he's only 120+ ABs into his MLB career. He is improving; last time I watched a game he walked on five pitches (facing a lefty), the first 3 were sliders down and out if the zone--pitches that any Cub fan can say he has been prone to chase. Then a took a cookie down the middle on 3-0 (red light most likely) and ten he took ball four. Just because the numbers aren't where we want them to be doesn't mean he's not doing things right. Let's not overreact and call him a bust or whine about trading him just cuz he's still figuring things out.

[ThreeKing]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

Bro, his bat wag has to go. He also has to cut down on his swing. This isn't a damn 12-inch softball league in the city he's playing in.

His plate approach is awful right now. I'm not saying I want to send this guy down or get rid of him, but he really needs to make some changes to his swing in the off-season.

[CBoller1331]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

Bro, his bat wag has to go. He also has to cut down on his swing. This isn't a damn 12-inch softball league in the city he's playing in.

His plate approach is awful right now. I'm not saying I want to send this guy down or get rid of him, but he really needs to make some changes to his swing in the off-season.

Let's just let him play a little more before we change him. If he is still embarrassingly bad next May-June, we send him to Iowa for repair

[JODYE]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

Some good points in here, but one ludicrous line of reasoning at one point...

To say after a month or two in the bigs that a 21 year old drafted out of high school in 2011 will be the odd man out and has an approach that will not cut it is a bit hyperbolic itself. Baez's approach is more likely to improve than not and plate discipline is something that was never really stressed until Theo got here in 2012. Even since then, the org has not been comfortable with their hitting instruction until recently and that's been evidenced by turnover of Jaramillo/Rowson/Deer/Buckner, the reshuffling of Brian Harper, Mariano Duncan, and Desi Wilson, along with the hiring of Anthony Iapoce before the 2013 season. So Baez has ripped through the minors without really needing to work counts and has not had this message instilled in him yet. I'm sure that will be a point of emphasis this offseason and into spring training. Comparing him to Soler isn't really fair either, because Soler is more the exception than the rule and has been playing against tougher competition for at least a couple of years longer than Baez going back to his Cuban National Team days while Baez was in high school.

I also think you're artificially crowding the INF with your scenario as Candelario and Villanueva aren't even close to Baez's level of potential--in other words, their presence would never cause an odd man out situation or force a trade with Baez. The other two would just be traded or moved to another position. And we already see that Alcantara seems destined for the OF. He had the highest error rate of any of our current and future middle INF'ers (Baez included).

So, really we have Russell, Bryant, Castro, and Baez for 3 spots. Sure, it could be Baez out in the cold of those 4, but then again the org has been adamant in saying they are keeping the OF warm for Bryant. No one is sure if he ends up at 3B or not. If Bryant goes to LF/RF, then really Baez/Castro/Russell could be 2B/SS/3B in some combination for a decade. There is no reason to trade any of these guys based on a handful of major league ABs. UNLESS you can get a bonafide young ace. And who is giving up an ace for a guy like Baez who you've already listed the warts on anyway? I don't see us getting proper value so I don't see it as very likely, but we'll see.

But the main thing you KNOW if you've followed Baez's career at all is he ALWAYS starts slow at every new level, so why should we expect that to change with MLB? One thing he also ALWAYS has shown is the ability to figure it out and mash. He has the physical ability and innate talents to hit the ball for average and for power--and for power like few others. You don't give up on a skill like that in today's pitching-happy game. I agree that a Sheffield-Baez comparison is lazy for a few reasons, but both had/have bat speed that most major leaguers have only dreamt of.

Pretty sure they thought Brett Jackson could be fixed too. It just doesn't work as greatly as you think, especially when a player has played a certain way for his entire life. And Jackson's hole was not near as large as Baez's. Now granted Brett also didn't have the bat speed, but that doesn't always get it done, as we've seen so far in the small sample size. 5 years later and Brett still can't find his way to the bigs. You are essentially reworking the entire swing from the ground up.

I don't really buy the whole "message" bit. These coaches are professionals, at every level. They know the game, they know the fundamentals. In addition to that, Epstein was hired on 5 months post draft, so there was plenty of time to instill the message. My concern is this, and we saw it last year with Castro, and that was just a change in approach. He was awful, in just about every category. Enter Mueller, enter Renteria and a staff that let Castro be Castro, and you see the results this year. Think about trying to change a guys approach and swing at damn near the same time. This isn't going to be a quick process by any means, and that's even if it goes as planned. Again Jackson is the example of a guy that had all the tools and but couldn't make the adjustment.

The odd man out comment was in reference to the top tier guys. Not the others.

And yes Baez has started slow at every level, but the majors is just a different beast. Guys are up there for a reason. I mean look at Josh Vitters. Another guy that was a slow starter at every level, but just never could get his legs at the big league level. Teams will find your weakness, and exploit it. And we're seeing that already with Javier.

Someone will trade for him, just based upon the physical tools and the fact he is so young.

I certainly want him to be here long term, but I've seen this scenario not pan out so many times, it is hard to be optimistic. It is going to be an uphill battle for Javier for sure if he does stick around. His K rate his absolutely unacceptable, and his swing, outside of the bat speed is a huge problem that needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.

[BleacherBum2310]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

His bat waggle is fine, his problem is recognizing Off-speed pitches. He's not recognizing those right now. I'm p sure everyone knew he would struggle, even the Cubs. The Cubs have said those adjustments would come in the off-season. I'm not worried. If he's still doing this into next season, then you get concerned.

[fugazi]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

He has a BIG problem, but deserves time to fix it at this level.

His power and bat-speed are prodigious...

Would I mind a near constant HR threat lurking in the 6-8 hole? not really.

I'd prefer a high-OBP doubles hitter...but Adam Dunn HR numbers? Sure, I'll take em, as long as he isn't in the heart of the order.

Coghlan CF
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Bryant LF
Soler RF
Baez 3B
Russell 2B
Castillo C

Could be worse...that's for sure.

[CBoller1331]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

He has a BIG problem, but deserves time to fix it at this level.

His power and bat-speed are prodigious...

Would I mind a near constant HR threat lurking in the 6-8 hole? not really.

I'd prefer a high-OBP doubles hitter...but Adam Dunn HR numbers? Sure, I'll take em, as long as he isn't in the heart of the order.

Coghlan CF
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B
Bryant LF
Soler RF
Baez 3B
Russell 2B
Castillo C

Could be worse...that's for sure.

Interesting to see Coghlan in there. He seems to get passed over in terms of (near) future plans. I wouldn't mind having him stick around until Almora is ready--or longer if the Cubs trade Almora.

[BleacherBum2310]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

I like Coghlan but his defense is really really bad, so idk I hope the Cubs find a better option or have a platoon there.

[fugazi]

Re: The Friendly Confines: The Official Chicago Cubs Thread

He's had a great year at the plate...on pace with Castro in 2B, and OPS...and this after a really bad week or so. Last week his numbers were in line or better in every category other than BA.

That, and during their awesome August, his name just kept coming up in late innings...whether scoring a run, getting a hit, and RBI, etc..

My lineup might leave Alcantara in the cold...but he could probably be switched for Baez...even if it meant shifting the rest of the MIF around.

The team is due to face an embarrassment of riches scenario very soon...good, prudent, and shrewd decisions will need to be made, and they will have to hope they were right on each one.

Bryant, Soler, Baez, Valbuena, Alcantara, Coghlan, Russell, Almora...all vying for 5 spots

Leaving Bryant at 3B makes the situation even more difficult...

We all know this, though...it's exciting, in a way...but also a little anxiety-inducing.