2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

That article is saying the exact same thing I told my wife the Reds meeded to do at the end of the 13 season,lol. When you have a anemic offense, but pitching and D is good, you have to give up some in the area you good in to fix the the area thats keeping the team for its ultimate goal

Pitching will get you only so far, but if you cant at least manufacture runs that good pitching is wasted, as we seen in both 12 and 13 when we not only had good starting pitching, but a lock down Bullpen. This year our starters were good, but the bullpen was as bad at doing their job as the hitters were at their job.

To fix what needs fixing Walt's got to give up some ML pitching or if he refuses to do that, then he is going to have to give up some of the higly touted arms we have in the farm system.

Not sure with Latos injuries this year if teams would be willing to give up much, but Cueto would definitely bring back some hitting, same with Chapman.

I really dont see Walt trading Cueto or Chapman, but he has to do something to fix the offense and bullpen.

Walt has been known to be creative so hopefully he can do that again to fix the problems. It would be great if Walt can fix the team without giving up Cueto and/or Chapman, but Im not sure how unless he gives up the young arms in the minors. Then you rgiving away what possibly could be very good cheap pitching.

While Cueto hasnt ever had a serious injury he has been plagued by spending time on the DL, and after he pitched a lot of innings in 12 he spent most of 13 on the DL, so IMO it might be wise to trade him while his value is high. Plus if Cueto were to have another stellar yr injury free in 15 it will take a kings ransom to keep him beyond. I like Cueto and hate to give up our Ace, but IMO it would be the smartest move to make to fix the offense.

I know the bullpen overall was awful this year, but like I said, I shop Chapman to try and get a LF/SS bat. Maybe see if you can trade him for Ben Zobrist. He would be an excellent stop gap who can play both positions that would be an ideal #2 hitter (although the Reds have the best #2 hitter potentially in Votto. Seriously he was made for that spot in the order).

Cueto should be able to get an everyday above average player and another prospect back. Like you, I'd hate to get rid of him because of how good he is when healthy, but considering his previous injury issues and giant contract waiting for him I would trade him now when his value is as high as it will get.
Latos has had what 3 bad injuries this year, one involving his elbow? It wouldn't be worth trading him atm. You wouldn't get much back. They probably should have tried to trade Simon at the all star break. You had to see his collapse coming.

I really hope Jocketty doesn't try and overpay for bench help again like he has with Hannahan/Schumaker. Let Heisey walk. Negron/an unsigned vet min guy could produce what he did last year. Paying 2/3 mil for a guy like that is dumb (which is likely what Heisey is going to get).

[PhantomPain]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I know the bullpen overall was awful this year, but like I said, I shop Chapman to try and get a LF/SS bat. Maybe see if you can trade him for Ben Zobrist. He would be an excellent stop gap who can play both positions that would be an ideal #2 hitter (although the Reds have the best #2 hitter potentially in Votto. Seriously he was made for that spot in the order).

Cueto should be able to get an everyday above average player and another prospect back. Like you, I'd hate to get rid of him because of how good he is when healthy, but considering his previous injury issues and giant contract waiting for him I would trade him now when his value is as high as it will get.
Latos has had what 3 bad injuries this year, one involving his elbow? It wouldn't be worth trading him atm. You wouldn't get much back. They probably should have tried to trade Simon at the all star break. You had to see his collapse coming.

I really hope Jocketty doesn't try and overpay for bench help again like he has with Hannahan/Schumaker. Let Heisey walk. Negron/an unsigned vet min guy could produce what he did last year. Paying 2/3 mil for a guy like that is dumb (which is likely what Heisey is going to get).

I think Votto morphed into the perfect 2 hitter. He didn't start out that way.

As for Cueto, while I am on the fence and can see both sides of the coin, he has only missed significant time in 2 seasons and none this past year. He is also the first 20 game winner we have had since the Stone Ages. So with that said, I can also see keeping him and riding that as long as you can. Almost all pitchers get hurt at some point. He rebounded after missing a significant portion of 2013 and had a CY Young year (Kershaw not withstanding). He is also homegrown talent and still young enough to give us another 5+ years of really really good pitching.

Basically I am saying that I am personally not opposed to trading him if it makes sense, but it would't be because I think he is injury prone. Frankly I would rather trade Latos even though he is younger. Latos is too emotional and loses his *ish when things aren't going right for him. Not saying he isn't a good pitcher with the chance to be REALLY good. But he isn't quite there yet.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/10/left-field-market-the-free-agents/

The Reds need a major upgrade on offense and the most logical position for a new acquisition is left field. With no viable in-house options right now, the front office has two routes: sign a free agent or make a trade.

Payroll, of course, is a factor. Without relief from current commitments, the Reds don’t have much to spend on a new bat. They could shop in the bargain basement free agent market, but that wouldn’t provide the jolt to the run production needle they sorely need. A place-holder 30-something is more of the same.

In this post, we’ll take a look at the free agent market. Compilations of potential players (Baseball Prospectus, MLB Trade Rumors) show around 30 or so available as left fielders (or converted right fielders). That sounds like a big number, but keep in mind that true impact bats are scarce (read, expensive).

The two posts on Wednesday explained and quantified detailed criteria the Reds should use when looking for a new hitter. Implementing a screen for potential free agents that requires an on-base percentage (OBP) higher than .330, a walk-rate (BB%) at or above 8 percent and decent extra-base power (ISO) of .120 or better, narrows the field considerably.

Below you’ll find reports on seven candidates. The numbers charted for their OBP, BB%, ISO, and wRC+ are based on early projections for the 2015 season. DRS stands for defensive runs saved and that’s based on their 2014 data in the outfield. In thinking about defense, keep in mind that range is a deficiency in a left fielder that can be covered over by the super-human range of Billy Hamilton. fWAR 14/15 shows their WAR (wins above replacement) as estimated by FanGraphs for 2014 and projected for 2015.

Here we go!



History: Nori Aoki has played three years in the United States, the first two for Milwaukee and 2014 for the Kansas City Royals. The vast majority of his innings have been in right field, although both the Brewers and Royals have played him a bit in left as well.

Hitting: His hitting record has been highly consistent over his MLB career, with the exception of a marked decline in power. His ISO has fallen from .144 (2012) to .084 (2013) to .075 (2014). He does not meet our established power criteria. Aoki has an extremely low strikeout rate. Aoki gets on base pretty well, but his lack of power almost disqualified him for this list.

Defense: Defensive metrics are split on him, marginally negative. He’s left-handed.

Money: He played on a $1.2 million, 1-year contract in 2014. He would be one of the bargain basement options.

Conclusion: Hard to see Aoki offering much overall in offense. If this is where the Reds go, that’s bare minimum.



History: Melky Cabrera is coming off a 2-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he played primarily left field. He has previously suited up for the Giants, Royals, Braves and Yankees. In 2012, he was suspended for 50 days for testing positive for PEDs.

Hitting: Cabrera slumped in his first year in Toronto, attributed by most to a benign tumor on his spine. 2014 was a solid bounce-back season. He’s young relative to others in this group, so decline is a little less of a concern. Batting average is a big component of his on-base percentage. Cabrera doesn’t meet our established BB% criteria. Nice power number. Low strikeout rate.

Defense: Weak. Serious range issue, although arm is fine. Legs are a severe liability.

Money: Toronto may make him a qualifying offer ($15.3 million). Estimates put his contract in the range of $13-15 million/year. Gimpy legs probably limit number of years he’ll command.

Conclusion: One of the top bats available in the free agent market. Price tag means Reds would need to shed salary to consider him. Defense is a serious liability. Walk-rate a concern if his batting average declines.



History: Nelson Cruz is coming off a 1-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles after playing eight seasons for the Texas Rangers. The Rangers played him mostly in RF, he’s played primarily LF for the O’s. In 2013, Cruz was linked to the BALCO scandal and suspended for 50 games. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Rangers. The Orioles signed him for $8 million just before the 2014 season began.

Hitting: Cruz led the major leagues with 40 home runs and finished in the top ten in ISO and SLG. His OBP and BB% are projected below our criteria, but his projected power more than compensates.

Defense: He received negative defensive scores playing RF but was rated positively in several defensive metrics this year playing LF for the Orioles.

Money: Strong rumors in the past 24 hours that the Orioles are pushing for an extension with Cruz. He’ll get paid this time, now that he’s proven his power wasn’t a function of his PED use.

Conclusion: Cruz would be a big splash for the Reds. Sounds like the Orioles may lock him up before he hits the open market. Prior to those rumors, many felt Cruz would be headed back to Texas where he was extremely popular.



History: Michael Cuddyer is coming off a 3-year contract with the Colorado Rockies and previously played eleven seasons for the Minnesota Twins. Cuddyer has mostly played RF and 1B, but earlier in his career played 2B and 3B as well. Reputation as a “leadership guy.”

Hitting: Cuddyer won the batting title in 2013. He has good power. As with any hitters who play in Coors Field you have to be skeptical of numbers. Cuddyer’s last healthy season was 2013 and his road numbers were great: .367 OBP, 8.0 BB%, and 174 ISO. Plenty of good hitting seasons with the Twins, FWIW.

Defense: Below average, but not terrible, outfielder. Average first baseman.

Money: His recent injuries (hamstring) may lower his asking price or shorten the contract. It’s possible Cuddyer may look for a 1 or 2-year deal loaded with incentives.

Conclusion: Possible fit for the Reds. First-base flexibility a plus. Injury risk there, as with all older players. But that might just be what makes Cuddyer affordable for the Reds. Clubs looking for 1B, like the Pirates, will compete for Cuddyer.



History: Nick Markakis has played for the Baltimore Orioles his entire career. Drafted by the Os in 2003 and started in 2006. Generally healthy. Young relative to this pool of players. Only played RF since 2006 although a couple substitute appearances at 1B in 2014. The Orioles have a $17.5 million club option for Markakis and most believe they’ll decline. Could pay him the $2 million buy-out and make a qualifying offer so they can receive the compensation pick if he declines.

Hitting: Solid major league hitter. Meets all three criteria. Low strikeout rate.

Defense: Above average arm, range is the issue. Defensive metrics split, but safe to say he’s not a liability. Think Jay Bruce, only in LF.

Money: I’ve seen varying estimates. Some in the $18-19 million range seem high to me. Others say the comparable is Hunter Pence at $16m/5 years, but Pence had a much better overall resume at the same age.

Conclusion: Markakis is a great fit for the Reds (and every other club looking for a corner OF) from the free agent pool. Only question is money. The team would definitely have to unload salary to afford him.



History: Michael Morse is coming off a 1-year, $6 million contract with the Giants. He previously played four years for Seattle and four years for Washington. He plays mostly LF and 1B now, although earlier in his career he played across the infield. Oblique strain cost him playing time this year, hardly played at all in September.

Hitting: Low on-base percentage, low walk-rate, lots of power.

Defense: Huge negative. One of the worst fielders in baseball. He is “so poor” that his defense “overshadows his offensive production” according to Giants analysts.

Money: Shouldn’t command top dollar due to injury and defense, although coming off a much better season than 2013.

Conclusion: Morse is going to end up as someone’s first baseman or DH in the American League. His one quality – power – just isn’t enough help for the Reds to take on the issues in LF. Only included him in this post because John Fay keeps mentioning his name due to affordability.



History: Josh Willingham is playing for the Kansas City Royals. He was traded to KC mid-season from Minnesota, where he had played for 2.5 seasons. Previously he spent 2 years with the Nationals and 4 years with the Marlins. He’s been strictly used as a LF. Final season of a $21 million/3-year contract. Almost signed with the Reds in 2012, but the club chose Ryan Ludwick instead because $2.5 million is less than $7 million.

Hitting: Struggled with batting average but super elite walk-rate maintains a well-above average on-base percentage. Still hits for good power. Willingham is one of those hitters who looks much better if you’re into modern stats. Marty Brennaman would scoff at Willingham’s .215 average last year. But Willingham’s wRC+ (runs created) of 113 would have trailed only Mesoraco, Votto and Frazier on last year’s Reds. Remember, 113 means 13 percent above average.

Defense: Below average fielder because of range, not arm. But not horribly negative.

Money: Should be real cheap.

Conclusion: Just when I was getting excited about Willlingham, I read that he’s strongly considering retiring at the end of the season. /Sad trombone./ His bat might not be a big impact, but the Reds could do much worse for a back-up to start the season. Then again, they’ve got Skip for that.

[slickdtc]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Basically fee agency isn't going to land us the answer we're looking for. Unless by some miracle we land Nelson Cruz. But I figure that just means we'll have to make a trade to shed salary.

[CaseIH]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I know the bullpen overall was awful this year, but like I said, I shop Chapman to try and get a LF/SS bat. Maybe see if you can trade him for Ben Zobrist. He would be an excellent stop gap who can play both positions that would be an ideal #2 hitter (although the Reds have the best #2 hitter potentially in Votto. Seriously he was made for that spot in the order).

Cueto should be able to get an everyday above average player and another prospect back. Like you, I'd hate to get rid of him because of how good he is when healthy, but considering his previous injury issues and giant contract waiting for him I would trade him now when his value is as high as it will get.
Latos has had what 3 bad injuries this year, one involving his elbow? It wouldn't be worth trading him atm. You wouldn't get much back. They probably should have tried to trade Simon at the all star break. You had to see his collapse coming.

I really hope Jocketty doesn't try and overpay for bench help again like he has with Hannahan/Schumaker. Let Heisey walk. Negron/an unsigned vet min guy could produce what he did last year. Paying 2/3 mil for a guy like that is dumb (which is likely what Heisey is going to get).

Yeah Walt has a tendency to overpay guys that are worthless basically. Not sure why they ever signed Hannahan anyway, he hasnt ever been good.

Heisey is a good 4th OF'er and actually 1 of the better PH'ers in the league, but I would let him walk unless he is cheap.

Schumaker wasnt really a bad sign by Walt, Skip is a good guy to have as a bench player. Someone needs to tell Price thats all he is though,lol. I think Skip would have had a better yr if he hadnt got hurt.

We should be able to fix the BP fairly easy and cheap, fixing the offense is whats going to cost in either money or cost by having to trade away a good player or more to get what we need offensively.

I really thought this spring with Nelson Cruz unsigned at the time the Reds should have went after him. I dont know if it was because of the PED's, as to why they didnt go after him, or if they actually thought Dudstick would actually produce. I have no respect for cheaters, but I felt Nelson Cruz was a good person, and was just trying to get back from a serious sickness where he lost a tom of weight right before Spring Training. I really dont think he was trying to gaina edge, just trying to get back to where he was because of the sickness zapping his strength.

If Votto comes back healthy next yr, he should still be productive at his age. I do worry some just because if Votto dont get back to his old self, were in a world of hurt financially. I have no doubt Bruce will come back strong, and still hit for power, but anyone thinking Bruce is going to be the Super Star he was projected to be is just fooling themslelves, he is what he is a high K guy with power and sold D. Sadly I do think Phillips is on the decline, I hope Im wrong cause IM a big fan of BP's but I think the injuries to his hands and wrist have taken its toll offensively.

Votto goes back to old form, and Bruce does what he typically does, to go along with Mez,Frazier and Billy I think 1 good bat in th elineup would make a big difference offensively for us, as long as starting pitching stays solid, and the bullpen gets fixed.

[CaseIH]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/10/l...e-free-agents/

The Reds need a major upgrade on offense and the most logical position for a new acquisition is left field. With no viable in-house options right now, the front office has two routes: sign a free agent or make a trade.

Payroll, of course, is a factor. Without relief from current commitments, the Reds don’t have much to spend on a new bat. They could shop in the bargain basement free agent market, but that wouldn’t provide the jolt to the run production needle they sorely need. A place-holder 30-something is more of the same.

In this post, we’ll take a look at the free agent market. Compilations of potential players (Baseball Prospectus, MLB Trade Rumors) show around 30 or so available as left fielders (or converted right fielders). That sounds like a big number, but keep in mind that true impact bats are scarce (read, expensive).

The two posts on Wednesday explained and quantified detailed criteria the Reds should use when looking for a new hitter. Implementing a screen for potential free agents that requires an on-base percentage (OBP) higher than .330, a walk-rate (BB%) at or above 8 percent and decent extra-base power (ISO) of .120 or better, narrows the field considerably.

Below you’ll find reports on seven candidates. The numbers charted for their OBP, BB%, ISO, and wRC+ are based on early projections for the 2015 season. DRS stands for defensive runs saved and that’s based on their 2014 data in the outfield. In thinking about defense, keep in mind that range is a deficiency in a left fielder that can be covered over by the super-human range of Billy Hamilton. fWAR 14/15 shows their WAR (wins above replacement) as estimated by FanGraphs for 2014 and projected for 2015.

Here we go!



History: Nori Aoki has played three years in the United States, the first two for Milwaukee and 2014 for the Kansas City Royals. The vast majority of his innings have been in right field, although both the Brewers and Royals have played him a bit in left as well.

Hitting: His hitting record has been highly consistent over his MLB career, with the exception of a marked decline in power. His ISO has fallen from .144 (2012) to .084 (2013) to .075 (2014). He does not meet our established power criteria. Aoki has an extremely low strikeout rate. Aoki gets on base pretty well, but his lack of power almost disqualified him for this list.

Defense: Defensive metrics are split on him, marginally negative. He’s left-handed.

Money: He played on a $1.2 million, 1-year contract in 2014. He would be one of the bargain basement options.

Conclusion: Hard to see Aoki offering much overall in offense. If this is where the Reds go, that’s bare minimum.



History: Melky Cabrera is coming off a 2-year contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he played primarily left field. He has previously suited up for the Giants, Royals, Braves and Yankees. In 2012, he was suspended for 50 days for testing positive for PEDs.

Hitting: Cabrera slumped in his first year in Toronto, attributed by most to a benign tumor on his spine. 2014 was a solid bounce-back season. He’s young relative to others in this group, so decline is a little less of a concern. Batting average is a big component of his on-base percentage. Cabrera doesn’t meet our established BB% criteria. Nice power number. Low strikeout rate.

Defense: Weak. Serious range issue, although arm is fine. Legs are a severe liability.

Money: Toronto may make him a qualifying offer ($15.3 million). Estimates put his contract in the range of $13-15 million/year. Gimpy legs probably limit number of years he’ll command.

Conclusion: One of the top bats available in the free agent market. Price tag means Reds would need to shed salary to consider him. Defense is a serious liability. Walk-rate a concern if his batting average declines.



History: Nelson Cruz is coming off a 1-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles after playing eight seasons for the Texas Rangers. The Rangers played him mostly in RF, he’s played primarily LF for the O’s. In 2013, Cruz was linked to the BALCO scandal and suspended for 50 games. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Rangers. The Orioles signed him for $8 million just before the 2014 season began.

Hitting: Cruz led the major leagues with 40 home runs and finished in the top ten in ISO and SLG. His OBP and BB% are projected below our criteria, but his projected power more than compensates.

Defense: He received negative defensive scores playing RF but was rated positively in several defensive metrics this year playing LF for the Orioles.

Money: Strong rumors in the past 24 hours that the Orioles are pushing for an extension with Cruz. He’ll get paid this time, now that he’s proven his power wasn’t a function of his PED use.

Conclusion: Cruz would be a big splash for the Reds. Sounds like the Orioles may lock him up before he hits the open market. Prior to those rumors, many felt Cruz would be headed back to Texas where he was extremely popular.



History: Michael Cuddyer is coming off a 3-year contract with the Colorado Rockies and previously played eleven seasons for the Minnesota Twins. Cuddyer has mostly played RF and 1B, but earlier in his career played 2B and 3B as well. Reputation as a “leadership guy.”

Hitting: Cuddyer won the batting title in 2013. He has good power. As with any hitters who play in Coors Field you have to be skeptical of numbers. Cuddyer’s last healthy season was 2013 and his road numbers were great: .367 OBP, 8.0 BB%, and 174 ISO. Plenty of good hitting seasons with the Twins, FWIW.

Defense: Below average, but not terrible, outfielder. Average first baseman.

Money: His recent injuries (hamstring) may lower his asking price or shorten the contract. It’s possible Cuddyer may look for a 1 or 2-year deal loaded with incentives.

Conclusion: Possible fit for the Reds. First-base flexibility a plus. Injury risk there, as with all older players. But that might just be what makes Cuddyer affordable for the Reds. Clubs looking for 1B, like the Pirates, will compete for Cuddyer.



History: Nick Markakis has played for the Baltimore Orioles his entire career. Drafted by the Os in 2003 and started in 2006. Generally healthy. Young relative to this pool of players. Only played RF since 2006 although a couple substitute appearances at 1B in 2014. The Orioles have a $17.5 million club option for Markakis and most believe they’ll decline. Could pay him the $2 million buy-out and make a qualifying offer so they can receive the compensation pick if he declines.

Hitting: Solid major league hitter. Meets all three criteria. Low strikeout rate.

Defense: Above average arm, range is the issue. Defensive metrics split, but safe to say he’s not a liability. Think Jay Bruce, only in LF.

Money: I’ve seen varying estimates. Some in the $18-19 million range seem high to me. Others say the comparable is Hunter Pence at $16m/5 years, but Pence had a much better overall resume at the same age.

Conclusion: Markakis is a great fit for the Reds (and every other club looking for a corner OF) from the free agent pool. Only question is money. The team would definitely have to unload salary to afford him.



History: Michael Morse is coming off a 1-year, $6 million contract with the Giants. He previously played four years for Seattle and four years for Washington. He plays mostly LF and 1B now, although earlier in his career he played across the infield. Oblique strain cost him playing time this year, hardly played at all in September.

Hitting: Low on-base percentage, low walk-rate, lots of power.

Defense: Huge negative. One of the worst fielders in baseball. He is “so poor” that his defense “overshadows his offensive production” according to Giants analysts.

Money: Shouldn’t command top dollar due to injury and defense, although coming off a much better season than 2013.

Conclusion: Morse is going to end up as someone’s first baseman or DH in the American League. His one quality – power – just isn’t enough help for the Reds to take on the issues in LF. Only included him in this post because John Fay keeps mentioning his name due to affordability.



History: Josh Willingham is playing for the Kansas City Royals. He was traded to KC mid-season from Minnesota, where he had played for 2.5 seasons. Previously he spent 2 years with the Nationals and 4 years with the Marlins. He’s been strictly used as a LF. Final season of a $21 million/3-year contract. Almost signed with the Reds in 2012, but the club chose Ryan Ludwick instead because $2.5 million is less than $7 million.

Hitting: Struggled with batting average but super elite walk-rate maintains a well-above average on-base percentage. Still hits for good power. Willingham is one of those hitters who looks much better if you’re into modern stats. Marty Brennaman would scoff at Willingham’s .215 average last year. But Willingham’s wRC+ (runs created) of 113 would have trailed only Mesoraco, Votto and Frazier on last year’s Reds. Remember, 113 means 13 percent above average.

Defense: Below average fielder because of range, not arm. But not horribly negative.

Money: Should be real cheap.

Conclusion: Just when I was getting excited about Willlingham, I read that he’s strongly considering retiring at the end of the season. /Sad trombone./ His bat might not be a big impact, but the Reds could do much worse for a back-up to start the season. Then again, they’ve got Skip for that.

I typically aint a fan of Asain players, but Aoki wouldnt be a bad fit. He is a contact hitter, and unlike our players he rarely strikes out. I think Melky is a piece of trash as a human, so I definitely dont want him. Nelson Cruz would supply power and a clutch player we could really use considring our team is full of chokers but Nelson will be way out of the price range, and I think the O's keep him. Morse isnt a bad hitter but he cant stay healthy, and his defense is horrible. Markakis would be a nice player to have. Cuddyer might not be a bad guy, but his age is a worry and health, but like Luddy did in 12 maybe we catch lightining in a bottle for a 1 yr deal. Willingham strikes out a ton, and would fit right in with our pathetic group of hitters, possibly could catch lightning in a bottle with him, but not sure I want to risk that.

I would like to see us get either a guy like Aoki who is a contact hitter, has some speed that can hit 2. Or we get a middle of the order bat that has power and can drive in runs. Preferably I would like to get a 1 or 2 hole hitter, and a run producing bat, but not sure we can make that happen, so it probably 1 or the other.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Wish we had signed Willingham three years ago, but we went with the cheaper solution in Luddy and caught lighting in a jar in 2012 and have been paying for it since.

Would LOVE to get Markakis, but I doubt that would happen.

[CaseIH]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Wish we had signed Willingham three years ago, but we went with the cheaper solution in Luddy and caught lighting in a jar in 2012 and have been paying for it since.

Would LOVE to get Markakis, but I doubt that would happen.

Like you I was all for Willingham 3 yrs ago, instead of Luddy. Problem was Willingham wasnt a former Cardinal being close to washed up, so Walt wouldnt want him,lol.

Luddy was a key in 12, but as you said we been paying for it every since. Things would have been fine if Walt wouldnt have overpaid to keep Luddy. Crazy we got to pay this guy to go away this winter like 4 million $, might be 5 mil, I cant remember exactly. At one time I was a fan of Walt, but some of his deals he has made has me sour on him.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/13/left-field-market-trade-targets-part-1/

The Reds are looking for a new left fielder in 2015. Some are free agents (Friday post). Other options are members of another team so the Reds would have to trade for them. This post is the first of three about those trade targets.

In general, trade targets are younger than free agents, but not always. They also come with widely variable team control (and thus cost). It’s often said that you trade contracts, not players. A player with five years of team control has a vastly different value calculation than a player with one year of team control remaining. Potential trading partners for the Reds have different needs. Some are looking primarily to dump salary, some mainly want prospects, and some are seeking starting pitching.

First, housekeeping:

Performance criteria: Two posts last Wednesday explained and quantified criteria the Reds should use when looking for a new left fielder — on-base percentage (OBP) higher than .330, a walk-rate (BB%) at or above 8 percent and decent extra-base power (ISO) of .120 or better. The trade targets identified here generally follow those guidelines.

Table glossary: The statistics below for OBP, BB%, ISO and wRC+ are based on projections (Steamer at FanGraphs) for the 2015 season. DRS stands for defensive runs saved and the player’s 2014 data from playing outfield. fWAR 14/15 is their WAR (wins above replacement) as estimated by FanGraphs for 2014 and projected for 2015.

Team control: A team controls the player for six years of service time once he is called up from minor leagues. In the first three years, the player is guaranteed to be paid at least the league minimum salary established in the collective bargaining agreement with the players’ union. In theory, the team could pay the player more than minimum, but that’s entirely up to the team, the player has no additional rights. Most players work for league minimum for three years, which is around $500,000. For the next three years, players have the right to binding arbitration if they don’t like the team’s offer. After six years, the player and club can either negotiate an extension or the player can file for free agency. Players can, of course, sign extensions with their club at any point during team control.

Candidates: These posts focus on relatively realistic trade targets, taking into account the needs of trading partner clubs and the constraints faced by the Reds. Many “face of the organization” players aren’t included because they won’t be traded. Examples: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun, Bryce Harper, Michael Brantley etc. Also excluded are trading partners that need hitting and have surplus pitching. So no Seth Smith (Padres) or Lucas Duda (Mets).

Chavez Ravine Traffic Jam

The Los Angeles Dodgers 2015 outfield situation makes the 405 Freeway look like a sparsely filled parking lot. To push the metaphor beyond the legal speed limit, half the cars in the lot are used luxury models, in various conditions; two are sparkling-new performance cars; and one is economical, functional, but uninspiring.

Veterans Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford are signed to large, long-term contracts. Yasiel Puig is one of the most exciting players in the game. Scott Van Slyke appears solid, but doesn’t have much of a major league track record. And prospect Joc Pederson obliterated AAA last year and may be the best of the six overall.

So yeah, the Dodgers will clearly be looking to trade one or more OF this offseason. They’re also deciding whether to fire Ned Coletti, their GM.



Hitting: Carried Dodgers in the second half. .309/.365/.606 and .297 ISO after All-Star break. And BABIP (.339 during that time is below Kemp’s career average). Big bounce back from injury/recovery in 2013 and first half of 2014. If healthy, strong offensive upside.

Defense: Brutal. Resisted playing LF with the Dodgers. Limits his WAR.

Contract Status: Contract runs five more years, with AAV (average annual value) of $21.5 million

Conclusion: Hard to see this match working. Kemp’s remaining contract is enormous. His strong second half will make Dodgers more hesitant to trade him, although he’s unhappy playing LF and no chance he’ll play CF for them going forward. Only way a trade with Reds gets off the ground financially is if the Reds package Brandon Phillips with Johnny Cueto.



Hitting: Fading offensive output. Severe platoon split (Either is left-handed).

Defense: Played across outfield, including pressed into service in CF, which is where most of his negative defensive numbers come from. Solid arm and range for LF.

Contract Status: Contract runs through 2017 at AAV of $18 million.

Conclusion: Dodgers will be shopping Ethier, including picking up much of his salary in trade. Could be platoon partner for Reds in LF. Wouldn’t cost the Reds much in players or salary. Probably could get Ethier for second or third-tier prospects. Hard to see the Reds signing on to three-years of Ethier’s continued decline, even if cheap.



Hitting: Doesn’t meet criteria for OBP or BB%. Stole 23 bases. Hasn’t been elite offensive player since 2010 with the Rays, although 2014 was best season since then. Only 370 plate appearances.

Defense: A bit above average in LF, his primary position.

Contract Status: Contract runs through 2017 at AAV of $20.5 million.

Conclusion: See Ethier, plus $2.5 million/year. No chance.



Hitting: Great OBP and BB% skills to go with elite power. Only 24, so reason to expect improvement.

Defense: Relatively neutral, with strong arm and so-so range. Played RF and CF.

Contract Status: Cuban defector. Signed contract through 2018. Salary is $4.5 million in 2015 and grows by $1 million each year, topping out at $7.5 million. Will probably earn $30-40 million in value annually. Might be most valuable contract in all baseball.

Conclusion: Reds would have to start with the names Cueto and Chapman and go from there. Hard to see Dodgers trading Puig given value. Maybe as trade-and-sign for Giancarlo Stanton, but that doesn’t help the Reds.



Hitting: Elite numbers (.425 OBP, .584 SLG) in AAA, although he’s old for just starting in the majors. Right-handed bat. Projection for 2015 skeptical of his 2014 BABIP (.394) in 246 PA. Van Slyke is a little short on OBP but .324 is still above average. Hard to know where he stands in relation to prime age.

Defense: Plays both corners and a little 1B, so decent flexibility.

Contract Status: Cheap. Five years of team control, two years before arbitration begins. But already 28 years old.

Conclusion: Best trade match with Dodgers from Reds side, although that’s not saying a lot. Van Slyke is one of John Fay’s favorite suggestions. If the Dodgers can move Ethier and Crawford salaries, Van Slyke would be their fourth OF behind Kemp, Puig and Pederson. This move for Reds would be cheap (salary) and relatively long-term. Likely would take Leake to get him, possibly Simon. Wonder what Dodgers would say if Reds offered BP straight up for Van Slyke.

Atlanta’s Dynamic Duo

Coming off of a disappointing 2014, Atlanta fired Frank Wren, their general manager. They’ll be looking to make significant changes for 2015.

Two of their best outfielders, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, are outstanding hitters. They are potential trade candidates because both have just one year remaining before reaching free agency. It’s possible Atlanta will negotiate contract extensions with one of them, but not likely both. Atlanta may decide Heyward and Upton are too valuable to trade, even if they are lost to free agency, like the Reds did with Shin-Soo Choo. But it’s possible that Atlanta will look to move one or both prior to 2015 (or maybe at the trade deadline), judging the trade returns as more lucrative than the compensation picks.



Hitting: Projection likes him for huge bounce back season. Experience leading off but also power to hit lower in lineup. Power declined the last three seasons, but still well above average.

Defense: Can play CF. Elite defense, range.. Maybe best defensive player in baseball. DRS not a typo.

Contract Status: Somehow Heyward is still only 25 years old. Free agent at 26. Signed for $7.8 million in 2015 (will earn north of $30 million in value). New GM might explore extension, but Heyward will demand top dollar.

Conclusion: Think the Shin-Soo Choo deal. One-year rental. Heyward’s poor 2014 at plate may make Atlanta more likely to deal. Could acquire for impact prospect, or established major league player with multi-year control plus second-tier prospects. Braves not desperate for pitching, but straight up swap for Johnny Cueto might prove of interest to Atlanta.



Hitting: Elite, right-handed power bat. Slumped in September. Entering prime age. Solid walk-rate. 25+ homers. Stolen bases have dropped to single digits past two seasons. Middle of the order hitter.

Defense: Played LF primarily for Braves in 2013 and 2014. Neutral-to-slightly-poor defense.

Contract Status: $14.5 million in final year of contract. Free agent in 2016.

Conclusion: See Heyward analysis. More power than Heyward, less defense.

[HustlinOwl]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-cincinnati-reds-6.html

bleak outlook and see similar results for 2015

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

By Charlie Wilmoth [October 13, 2014 at 2:31pm CDT]
The Reds took a big step backward in their first season under manager Bryan Price, and they now face a number of worrisome contracts and an uncertain future.
Guaranteed Contracts

• Joey Votto, 1B: $213MM through 2023
• Homer Bailey, SP: $96MM through 2019
• Brandon Phillips, 2B: $39MM through 2017
• Jay Bruce, OF: $25.5MM through 2016
• Raisel Iglesias, P: ~$20MM through 2020*
• Sean Marshall, RP: $6.5MM through 2015
• Manny Parra, RP: $3.5MM through 2015
• Skip Schumaker, UT: $3MM through 2015
• Sam LeCure, RP: $1.85MM through 2015
• Brayan Pena, C: $1.4MM through 2015

*The exact details of Iglesias’ seven-year, $27MM contract have not been reported, although it reportedly included a large signing bonus.
Options

• Johnny Cueto, P: $10MM club option ($800K buyout)
• Ryan Ludwick, OF: $9MM mutual option ($4.5MM buyout)
• Jack Hannahan, 3B: $4MM club option ($2MM buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

• Alfredo Simon, SP (5.142): $5.1MM projected salary
• Mat Latos, SP (5.079): $8.4MM
• Mike Leake, SP (5.000): $9.5MM
• Chris Heisey, OF (4.157): $2.2MM
• Logan Ondrusek, RP (4.125): $2.3MM
• Aroldis Chapman, RP (4.034): $8.3MM
• Zack Cozart, SS (3.084): $2.3MM
• Todd Frazier, 3B (3.071): $4.6MM
• Devin Mesoraco, C (3.028): $2.8MM
• Non-tender candidates: Ondrusek

Free Agents

• Ramon Santiago

2014 was a disappointing season for the Reds, who followed a 2013 Wild Card appearance with a sub-.500 finish in a year marred by injuries to Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and others. Going forward, they’re in a tough spot, and looking at the list of salaries and arbitration cases above, it’s not hard to see why. The Reds are a veteran team. They’re not old, exactly, but many of their stars are reaching, or have reached, that nexus where the Reds have to pay them what they’re worth, or even more than that.
It may be painful for the Reds to decisively address their payroll issue. They owe Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Bailey a total of about $48MM in 2015. In 2016, that number jumps to about $65MM, an enormous figure for a team that has never had an Opening Day payroll over $115MM.
So what can the Reds do? With the guaranteed salaries they already have in place for next season, and the raises they’ll have to pay key arbitration-eligible players like Aroldis Chapman and Mike Leake, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be serious bidders for top free agents.
They could make a few minor tweaks, hope for healthier and more productive seasons from their core players, and take one more run at contention. Beyond 2015, though, the Reds’ future becomes murkier, since Cueto, Latos, Leake and Alfredo Simon are all eligible for free agency. The Reds have a fairly good crop of starting pitching prospects led by a very strong one in Robert Stephenson, but replacing all their departing talent will be tough. It’s difficult, then, to see them fielding a competitive team in 2016 without getting very creative or lucky.
Another possible route for them this winter, therefore, might be to get a head start on their tricky 2016 season by trading Cueto for youth. Cueto’s $10MM option is a bargain in 2015, and he ought to be able to fetch a terrific return as a much cheaper and lower-risk alternative to Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields. Dealing Cueto for, say, an outfielder and two pitching prospects would allow the Reds to head into 2016 with those prospects supplementing a new-look rotation centered around Stephenson, Bailey, Raisel Iglesias, Tony Cingrani and perhaps one of Latos, Leake and Simon. Judging from the recent returns for pitchers like Jeff Samardzija (who had a year and a half of control before free agency but is a lesser pitcher) and R.A. Dickey (who had a year remaining before free agency and fetched two top prospects), a year of Cueto at a team-friendly salary could return two top-50 prospects or talented young big-leaguers. Another possibility, as ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (Insider-only), is for the Reds to trade Cueto along with someone like Phillips to give their payroll some breathing room for the next few seasons.
The Reds could consider trades involving other starters as well, and MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently explored those possibilities. Bailey, who finished the year on the disabled list and has five years remaining on his contract, almost surely will not be traded. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal recently cited Latos as the Reds pitcher most likely to be dealt, although that’s probably much less likely now than it was in August, since Latos missed most of September with an elbow injury. His diminished velocity in 2014 will likely also be an obstacle. Trading Simon, who’s coming off a very strong 2014 season, might provide the Reds with good return value, although it would only do so much to save them money. Dealing Leake, who projects to make $9.5MM in 2014 and doesn’t have a worrisome injury history, might make the most sense.
The Reds already began shedding salary for 2015 when they traded Jonathan Broxton to the Brewers in August, but it’s hard to get a read on their level of interest in more radical moves. GM Walt Jocketty (whose contract the Reds recently extended) told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he still sees his team as a potentially competitive one. “This year is disappointing because of the injuries,” he said. “From the very beginning, we had 11 DL guys and eight were key. … I feel we still have a small window if the guys come back healthy.” While the Reds will keep Jocketty, though, they’re expected to make significant changes to their front office, so it’s hard to say whether Jocketty’s outlook might be swayed by whoever else the Reds end up hiring.
The Reds’ core of position players is mostly set for 2015, if only because most of their starters are either cost effective or difficult to move. The Reds were the worst offensive team in baseball in the second half of the season, hitting a paltry .221/.277/.326 since the All-Star break, with Billy Hamilton, Ryan Ludwick, Bruce, Phillips, Skip Schumaker and Brayan Pena all struggling. Hamilton, Bruce and Phillips appear likely to return, however. Hamilton provides most of his value in the field and on the bases, and the Reds probably have little choice but to either stick with Bruce and Phillips or trade them for meager returns.
The Reds are also set at catcher (with Devin Mesoraco posting a breakout season, and Pena signed through 2015), first base (where Votto’s contract will likely be impossible to move) and third base (where Todd Frazier quietly had a terrific year). That leaves shortstop and left field. Shortstop Zack Cozart is an awful hitter, but he provides plenty of value in the field, and he ended up with 1.4 fWAR in 2014 despite a .223/.269/.302 line. It might be possible for the Reds to upgrade at the position, perhaps with someone like Jed Lowrie. But given Cozart’s .256 BABIP this season, it would also be defensible if they hoped for a modest offensive rebound and kept him at shortstop in 2015, particularly given that the free agent market doesn’t have much to offer and Cozart should be fairly cheap in his first season of arbitration eligibility.
In left field, Ryan Ludwick has struggled through his two-year contract, and the Reds probably ought to pass on their end of his $9MM mutual option, even given the steep $4.5MM buyout cost. Chris Heisey can be an effective bench piece, but he probably shouldn’t be considered a starter. The Reds could also move Frazier to left field and pursue a free agent third baseman like Aramis Ramirez, although such a strategy seems like a waste of Frazier’s good glove. The Reds will probably be fairly limited in their ability to sign a left fielder as a free agent, and top outfield prospects Jesse Winker and Phil Ervin are each at least a year away, so the Reds’ best path might be to acquire an outfielder if they trade one of their starting pitchers. A deal with a team like the Red Sox, who have plenty of outfielders and are in need of good starting pitching, might make sense, and someone like Daniel Nava might be a good target as part of a larger deal.
With Heisey, Pena and Kristopher Negron, the Reds have the beginnings of a reasonable bench. They’ll likely decline their option on Jack Hannahan, who didn’t play much in 2014 and didn’t hit at all when he did. But upgrading the bench likely won’t be a big priority for the Reds, particularly given that they already have the light-hitting Schumaker to fill one of the remaining spots.
Other than the extraordinary Chapman, the 2014 bullpen was not a strength, and it became weaker when the Reds shipped Broxton to Milwaukee. The Broxton trade suggests, however, that the Reds understand that when there’s a budget crunch, highly paid relievers ought to be the first luxury item to go. So it wouldn’t be a surprise if they didn’t spend much on bullpen help this offseason, instead sifting through arms they already control, like Manny Parra, J.J. Hoover, Sam LeCure, Curtis Partch, Jumbo Diaz, Pedro Villareal, Carlos Contreras, and Sean Marshall (who will be returning from a shoulder injury). Iglesias might be another possibility. Logan Ondrusek, who had a poor season in 2014, is a non-tender candidate.
One outside-the-box idea might be for the Reds to trade Chapman. He’s so good that it would be difficult to get fair value for him, but it’s worth considering, since he’s only under team control through 2016, and he won’t be cheap by then. The Reds might be able to get a couple potential regulars in return for Chapman, which would dramatically improve them as they build for 2016 and beyond. There haven’t been many rumors yet about a potential Chapman trade, and perhaps there won’t be. But if the Reds make any surprising moves, that’s the kind they’ll likely make, with the big names on the way out of town rather than on

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/14/left-field-trade-targets-part-2/

Yesterday, we looked at potential trade match-ups with the LA Dodgers and Atlanta. Today, we’ll analyze two more promising partners: the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox. Tomorrow, we’ll cover a handful of candidates that fall into the “dare to dream” category and a couple other random possibilities.

In general, trade targets are younger than free agents, but not always. They also come with widely variable team control (and thus cost). It’s often said that you trade contracts, not players. A player with five years of team control has a vastly different value calculation than a player with one year of team control remaining. Potential trading partners for the Reds have different needs. Some are looking primarily to dump salary, some mainly want prospects, and some are seeking starting pitching.

Check out yesterday’s post for details on the criteria we’re using for potential targets and an explanation for team control.

Table glossary: The numbers in the charts below for OBP, BB%, ISO and wRC+ are based on projections (Steamer at FanGraphs) for the 2015 season. DRS stands for defensive runs saved and that’s their 2014 data from playing outfield. fWAR 14/15 is their WAR (wins above replacement) as estimated by FanGraphs for 2014 and projected for 2015.

Tampa Bay Salary Relief

The Rays, like Atlanta, are a team that just finished a less-than-fulfilling season. Unlike Atlanta, however, one of the Ray’s primary needs this offseason is to shave payroll. Their owner has already confirmed that last season’s total of $80 million will have to be trimmed. The Rays would be an interesting trading partner for the Reds since they won’t be looking for major league pitchers. If the Reds choose to keep their rotation intact, or if they want to trade a SP for another purpose, making a deal with the Rays for a LF would help.

As a result, players like Ben Zobrist who otherwise would be too valuable to move, might be on the trading block. Most of the obvious salary-dump candidates for the Rays are not outfielders. But a couple are, including a few arbitration-eligible players who could play LF for the Reds.



Hitting: Short on OBP. Former top prospect. Excellent speed. Change of scenery candidate.

Defense: Strong positive defense in LF.

Contract Status: Entering first year of arbitration. Projected to make $4 million, which is affordable to Reds. Three years of team control.

Conclusion: Jennings may be squeezed out of a starting job with Rays, behind a couple veterans and a couple less expensive younger players. Good match with Reds for prospects.



Hitting: Left-handed, platoon only. Offensive numbers would dip if had to hit against much LHP.

Defense: Defense positive in LF, struggled elsewhere.

Contract Status: Standard third year arbitration, estimated at $4.5 million. One-year rental.

Conclusion: Platoon of Joyce with Chris Heisey would be ultra cheap and low-impact way to go for Reds. Joyce expecting to be traded, won’t cost much.



Hitting: Second year in a row for Zobrist with offense at reduced level, but still well above average. At age 33, Zobrist is now likely the hitter of 2013 and 2014, not the previous two seasons.

Defense: Tremendous value because of defensive position flexibility. Plays across entire infield and outfield. Defense in OF fairly neutral. Flexibility has less value to team like the Reds with established infield and other OF slots and a manager who believes in set roles.

Contract Status: One more year of contract at $7.5 million team option, which is tremendous value since he’ll earn above $20 million in WAR.

Conclusion: From a value standpoint, the Rays would be nuts to trade Zobrist, but his $7.5 million contract may compel them to pick up his option and trade him, although maybe at the trade deadline.

Sawks Outfield Surplus

Much like the LA Dodgers, the Boston Red Sox have more returning outfielders than they can play in 2015. That list includes Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Archie Bradley, Daniel Nava, Allan Craig and youngsters Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo. Two of those players, Cespedes and Nava, are possible trade candidates.



Hitting: Short on OBP and BB% criteria but elite power and availability put him on our list. Sluggers with .200+ ISO are extremely rare. Only walked seven times in 51 games for Boston. Youngish for this group.

Defense: LF is his primary position. Superman’s arm. Other defensive skills neutral. Struggled with unusual LF in Fenway Park.

Contract Status: Owed $10.5 million in 2015, then free agent in 2016. One-year rental.

Conclusion: Red Sox might try to extend Cespedes, but he doesn’t fit their template of patient and disciplined hitters. Cespedes might have been the player the Reds were discussing at the trade deadline in the rumored Mat Latos talks. Boston needs SP, so that’s a fit. Given health uncertainty with Latos, Cueto is probably only Reds player that gets Cespedes. Leake plus a good prospect, maybe.



Hitting: Projections see higher power for Nava in 2015 than 2014. Poor early 2014 followed outstanding 2013 (.303/.385/.445, .142 ISO). Age makes 2014 numbers more likely going forward. Switch-hitter. Was sent to minors during 2014 but returned and hit better. Meets all criteria.

Defense: Plays LF, RF and a bit of 1B. Good arm, poor range. Defensive metrics split. Strongly positive in 2014 after negative previous two seasons.

Contract Status: Old for three years of team control. Entering first arbitration year.

Conclusion: Nava is out of options, so Red Sox can’t send to AAA. Unclear if Nava is in Boston’s plans, not likely to start. Probably not expensive in trade, maybe Simon (one year for three years) plus a second-level prospect. Nava’s age is a legitimate concern, though.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/15/left-field-trade-targets-part-3/

...

Dare to Dream – Veterans Division

The dare-to-dream category includes three ideal LF candidates for the Reds where there’s at least a plausible pathway for a deal. The first two players are veterans, the final is a youngster. Remember, this category is labeled “dare to dream.”



Hitting: Jose Bautista is one of the top hitters in baseball and probably the best who could conceivably be traded by their team. Elite OBP, walk-rate and power — the whole package at the plate. His bat would transform the Reds lineup.

Defense: Strong arm, good glove. Played some 1B this year. Played 3B earlier in career. Mostly a RF, where he has an excellent reputation, but the metrics are mixed. Would probably mean a shift to LF for Jay Bruce, although Bautista has a little experience there.

Contract Status: Two years of team control. $14 million owed in 2015 and $14 million team option in 2016.

Why Trade is Possible: As Toronto’s best player, Bautista is close to falling into the “face of the franchise” category. Their GM has recently said Bautista wouldn’t be traded. But the needs of the two clubs match up perfectly. They have a gaping hole at 2B and need defense there. The Blue Jays could also use a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Toronto has a top-ten payroll, but there are limits to their spending. They do have salary coming off the books, but are looking to re-sign Melky Cabrera and have to find a new closer (hint). Their self-imposed ban on free agent contracts longer than five years might take them out of the Scherzer, Shields and Lester talks.

Conclusion: A package of Brandon Phillips and Johnny Cueto could get the conversation started. The Reds would probably have to add a second-tier prospect or two. I doubt the Reds would consider trading Jay Bruce, but this is exactly the kind of trade where it would make sense (although it wouldn’t solve the LF problem). Same with Aroldis Chapman.



Hitting: Alex Gordon has nearly 1,200 plate appearances leading off for the Kansas City Royals, but can hit throughout the lineup. He has a strong OBP and walk-rate and well above average power.

Defense: Three-time Gold Glove winner in LF (2011-2013). Arm, range, glove all elite.

Contract Status: Two years of team control, including $12.5 million salary in 2015 and 2016 team option of $12.5 million.

Why Trade is Possible: Money and the Myers-for-Shields deal. The Royals have indicated they’ll make a run at re-signing James Shields, their top starting pitcher. Money may be less of an issue with their lucrative postseason run, but it’s hard to imagine them competing for Shields with teams like Boston or New York. A trade for an ace makes more sense.

Conclusion: This deal would be built around Johnny Cueto. The Royals aren’t looking to re-build, they want assets that will help them win now.

Dare to Dream – Youngster Division



Hitting: Christian Yelich has exceptional on-base and walk skills and his power is improving. Yelich has experience leading off for the Marlins. He’ll be 23 in December, a full year younger than Billy Hamilton. Yelich is young enough to expect improvement in hitting across the board. Stole 21 bases in 2014.

Defense: Tremendous range and glove. LF is his regular position. Not a single ball would fall in the outfield between Yelich and Hamilton. Possible the two of them could cover the outfield themselves, allowing Jay Bruce to dispense global payback by playing a defensive shift position for each better.

Contract Status: Five years of team control, the first two, at least, likely wildly valuable.

Why Trade is Possible: The Marlins have Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna to anchor the outfield. Trading Yelich would allow them to pursue Cuban defector/free agent Yasmany Tomas and allow Tomas to play in his regular position. The Marlins also don’t have an established second baseman. Their top off-season acquisition will likely be an experienced starting pitcher to complement their staff of young starters.

Conclusion: Yelich would become a cornerstone player for the Reds, with five years of control. Cueto (or Latos or Leake) could make sense as a cheaper alternative for the Marlins than pursuing a pricey and long-term free agent commitment. Wild card is Aroldis Chapman. I’ve always thought Miami was the logical best trading partner for AC because of the appeal to local Cuban fans. The Marlins already have an established closer (who they could trade) but they could also, sensibly, convert Chapman to the starter they need. Could an offer of Chapman (or Cueto) and a top prospect get this done? Or maybe Chapman and Simon? Yes, please.

One More Name



Hitting: Like Yelich, Fowler has a great OBP and walk-rate. Decent power, too. Legitimate lead-off hitter. OBP projection seems low considering Fowler has averaged .380 OBP the past three seasons, including last year in Houston. Averaged over 3.0 WAR on offense the past four seasons (Baseball-Reference).

Defense: Primarily been a CF. Shockingly bad defense given his athleticism. Maybe better in LF.

Contract Status: One-year rental. Standard Arb3 player, with $9 million expected salary.

Conclusion: Fowler may not be in long-term plans for Astros, given outfield talent in pipeline and likely big contract. The Astros aren’t ready to contend in 2015 so might be likely to trade Fowler for prospects. Shin-Soo Choo type deal for the Reds, without the Drew Stubbs piece. Fowler for Simon?

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/16/jockettys-soliliquy/

To trade or not to trade? That’s the question.

Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous run production, or to take (pitching) arms against the sea of troubles, and by opposing end them.

Not to Trade

Keep in mind, the Reds don’t have to trade anyone this offseason, comfortable with the heartache of low on-base percentage and the thousand natural outs that flesh is heir to.

They could instead choose to take their limited payroll room, sign an inexpensive, low-impact free agent, like Nori Aoki, to play left field and fix-up the bullpen. Sweat out another weary run with basically the same team.

It would amount to an all-in strategy that relies on immaculate health, elite defense, first-class starting pitching and Aroldis Chapman to close out games — peak status quo — the most passive version of 2013 + 2014 = 2015.

Meanwhile, the Reds could negotiate with all three of the pitchers and use leverage of the triple-track against each of them. Sign Mike Leake, say to a $56 million/4-year extension and retain Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, at least until the trade deadline. If a sufficient number of body parts have held up, keep them all and go for it.

Rumors of CEO Bob Castellini’s love for current players and reluctance to make moves that smack of rebuilding reinforce the likelihood of this reactionary play. Modern-day insolence of office.

To Trade

Last offseason, Reds fans held out hope for trades that shook up the clubhouse and all we got was a new guy filling out the lineup card with a worse roster. But financial realities point to action this winter.

C. Trent Rosecrans reports an obvious but important perspective from said new guy, manager Bryan Price, “As much as I think we’d like to be able to keep every single guy and pay them what they deserve, it’s impossible to do it here. … Some of them may be able to command a six, six-plus year top-level salary and maybe are more in what you’d consider the affordable range. It doesn’t look good when you’re not trying to sign your best players, and you can’t sign them all. It’s impossible to keep them all.”

Further, there’s hope that the whips and scorn of the past two seasons will force the front office to the realization that hitting is now more scarce (and valuable) than pitching, leading the Reds to cash in on their surplus of quality hurlers. Enough teams are desperate for pitching, like the Yankees and Red Sox, or others that remain prisoners of obsolete “can’t-have-too-much-pitching” thinking, that the Reds should receive a lucrative and enticing return.

Of the two rationales for trading a starting pitcher — (1) exchange for current major league hitting, presumably a left fielder; or (2) exchange for top prospects, restocking with less expensive players and creating salary space to sign free agent hitting — either way, the Reds end up with needed bats.

Should the Reds be concerned about who fills in for departed starters? Of course, but only so much. Tony Cingrani replaced Cueto in 2013. Simon covered for Bronson Arroyo, Latos and Cingrani in 2014. And even Dylan Axelrod and David Holmberg stepped in capably for Homer Bailey at the end of the season. The large mitigating factor is defense. Whoever takes the mound in a Cincinnati uniform benefits greatly from Gold Glove defense, especially up the middle.

Steven Goldman wrote in Baseball Between the Numbers that defense is the invisible hand (in glove) that affects much of what we perceive as pitching. Reds starters enjoyed the largest benefit of any rotation from their defense. The Reds starting pitcher ERA was 3.37 (3rd best in the majors) while their fielding-independent score was 4.03 (25th best). The Reds can’t throw just any pitcher out there, but Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier and Brandon Phillips will help keep ERAs down.

Trading pitching away means taking a chance. And here’s where last season’s injuries continue to hamper the Reds in the offseason. If Tony Cingrani, Homer Bailey and Mat Latos were healthy, trading away pitching would be easier. But not acting boldly is taking a chance as well, one that haunted the Reds in 2013 and 2014.

Ay, there’s the rub!

To sleep Mr. Jocketty, perchance to dream. Calamity of so long life these past two years. For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come? With the Reds much the same, as their fate once again shuffles off their mortal quad muscles and flexor masses, what games not won? Conscience (and fear of the unknown) does make cowards of us all.

The Reds head into 2015 an enterprise of great pith and moment. Be concerned if their currents turn awry and lose the name of action.

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

If we are talking about tradeable guys this offseason, there are probably only a couple of names that would really be valuable. Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman. If you go down the list, unless you trade Hamilton/Frazier/Mesoraco (which would be asinine) everyone else is either untradeable due to contract/injury or you wouldn't net much for them.

Latos- Coming off of like 3 injuries this year including an elbow issue. Wouldn't get nearly as much now as in July.
Leake- Could net a decent player/prospect, but nothing big.
Simon- Was good for first half and fell off. Doubt you could get much for him.
Bailey- Injuries and that contract. No chance
Phillips- ^ His production is falling off too, owed $39 mil still. No chance in hell someone takes him, especially now he has 10/5 rights.
Bruce- Value is at a low due to poor season.
Cozart- Wouldn't get anything for him
Votto- Albatross of a contract & injury issues

I expect Bruce to have a bounce back season next year. I really think he came back way too soon from knee surgery and it showed. We can take a risk on a left fielder imo that is a negative defensively with Billy Hamilton out there in center.

It would never happen, but I personally love the idea of a Cueto/Phillips led deal for Matt Kemp, especially if the Dodgers paid some of his salary. Kemp would be a guy you could put in the 2/3/4 hole and would probably hit 35 home runs here. Obviously Stanton would have been the best fit, but after the year he put up last year they would have to give the Marlins everyone but the kitchen sink for him.

[PhantomPain]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

There is a lot of info and scenarios to digest, but something that caught my eye was a potential trade for Bautista. There is no way, IMO, that we would have to give up Cueto, Phillips and a prospect or two to get Bautista. If Junketty gave that much up, he should be banned from baseball. Don't get me wrong, I like Bautista and would be all for finding a way to get him to Cincinnati, but I certainly wouldn't give up the house, the farm and vacation home for him.