2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

There is a lot of info and scenarios to digest, but something that caught my eye was a potential trade for Bautista. There is no way, IMO, that we would have to give up Cueto, Phillips and a prospect or two to get Bautista. If Junketty gave that much up, he should be banned from baseball. Don't get me wrong, I like Bautista and would be all for finding a way to get him to Cincinnati, but I certainly wouldn't give up the house, the farm and vacation home for him.

I would GLADLY give up Cueto, Phillips and a mid level prospect, say Michael Lorenzon/Ben Lively for him.

Bautista would hit 40 home runs he and be a legitimate 4 hole hitter for the Reds.

Cueto is gone after the year anyway. He is going to get a huge contract from somebody (and he deserves it). If they can turn him and an awful contract into a star, you do it imo. If they want Stephenson in addition to BP/Cueto, that's a different story obviously.

[PhantomPain]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I would GLADLY give up Cueto, Phillips and a mid level prospect, say Michael Lorenzon/Ben Lively for him.

Bautista would hit 40 home runs he and be a legitimate 4 hole hitter for the Reds.

Cueto is gone after the year anyway. He is going to get a huge contract from somebody (and he deserves it). If they can turn him and an awful contract into a star, you do it imo. If they want Stephenson in addition to BP/Cueto, that's a different story obviously.

Well, I think the Reds will find a way to keep Cueto. It is how ownership works with homegrown talent. They will open up their wallets and give him what he needs.

But regardless, I still think giving up Cueto who is a CY Young contender plus an aging but still completely viable 2nd baseman that can still play very good defense and a couple of prospects is too much. Bautista is good, but he isn't 26 (will turn 34 in 2 days) and he has had injury issues. 2 out of the past 3 years he has missed significant time and 3 out of the past 6 years as well. He did put together a very good year this year, that I will give you. But if you look at his career, he has had a grand total of 3 years that one could consider putting him in "elite" category and worthy of such a trade.

Don't get me wrong, I like Bautista and think he would do well in Cincy, but his 2 MONSTER years (2010 & 2011) make him out to be more than he really is.

[HustlinOwl]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

lol at all these fantasy scenarios and yet the Giants are in the WS yet again with Gregor Blanco and Travis Ishikawa in their starting lineup lmao

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

lol at all these fantasy scenarios and yet the Giants are in the WS yet again with Gregor Blanco and Travis Ishikawa in their starting lineup lmao

Giants have a lockdown bullpen and an offense that ranked 4th in the NL in OPS+. That's a recipe for success in the postseason.

That and its an even year.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/17/trading-johnny-beisbol/

It’s not personal, Johnny. It’s strictly business.

Johnny Cueto turns 29 on February 15. He’s coming off a tremendous season, one of the best for a starting pitcher in the long history of the Cincinnati Reds. The club signed the right-hander out of the Dominican Republic as a free agent in 2004. He debuted against the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 3, 2008, a game I attended. Cueto struck out ten and walked none that night. Five days later against the Brewers, eight strikeouts and no walks. Zero nerves, zero walks. Twice.

Three years later, fresh off a surprising divisional championship in 2010, the Reds and Johnny Cueto agreed to a contract extension. The deal was for $27 million over four years (2011-14), plus a $10 million team option for 2015. The 5’11” pitcher was about to enter his first year of arbitration. So with the option year included, the Reds bought out two years of Cueto’s free agency. $10 million was a pile of money for an organization that at the time was spending just $76 million for 25 players.



Whatever comfort the millions of dollars provided the player and his family, the deal was a bonanza for the club. Over its initial four years, Cueto earned roughly 15 WAR (average of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference), which had an open market value of about $80-85 million over those years. If Cueto enjoys another 5 WAR season in 2015 for the Reds, it would mean an additional net gain of $25 million.

The parties are nearing the end of that 2011 agreement. Johnny Cueto becomes a free agent in 2016. To make matters worse, team control over three other starting pitchers — Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon — expires at the same time. Homer Bailey is the only member of the 2014 rotation signed beyond the 2015 season. People refer to that as a “window” in close proximity with the word “closing.”

But like other buildings with windows, the Reds can remodel. They won’t let all four pitchers leave. At least one, probably two, will sign extensions this offseason. Beyond that, the next (cheaper) generation of pitchers will take its turn.

Knowing that the Reds pitching staff won’t disappear in a puff of free agency doesn’t make the decisions the next few months any easier. And the uncertain health status of Latos, Bailey and Tony Cingrani makes action all the more treacherous. But as the team and its fans have learned the past 18 months, inaction can be equally perilous.

The single most important decision the Reds confront this offseason regards Johnny Cueto’s fate. Of the four pitchers, he offers the biggest upside, to the Reds and trade suitors.

The parts move together, however. What the Reds do with Johnny Cueto is influenced by how they decide to manage the other pitchers. For example, if they sign Mike Leake and Mat Latos to long-term deals, they can rule out signing Cueto. That said, here are the Reds options for how they can handle #47:

Option 1: Let him walk

The Reds could simply let Johnny Cueto finish out his contract. They’d pocket 34 more regular season starts (plus the postseason, right?), hope Cueto wins 20 games again and see how far that gets the team. After the season, before they parted ways, the Reds would make him what’s called a qualifying offer (QO) for 2016 of about $16 million.

[Per the league's collective bargaining agreement, the QO number each year is determined by averaging the top 125 salaries in the game. The commissioner's $22-million salary doesn't count. This year, the QO amount was $15.3 million. Last year, $14.1 million. The QO rule is designed to protect teams that lose top players to free agency. Last year, the Reds made a QO to Shin-Soo Choo, but not to Bronson Arroyo. If Cueto stays healthy and good, he'll get one.]

Under this scenario, when Cueto turns down his QO and signs with another team, the Reds will receive an extra draft pick, timed to come at the end of the first round. That draft selection may or may not end up helping the Reds in the near future.

Option 2: Sign him again

The Reds could negotiate another extension with Johnny Cueto.

A few days ago, Cueto expressed interest (through his translator) in staying with the Reds. “I feel good here. I like it here. I like the fans. I like the stadium, even though the stadium is small, I like this stadium. I pitch good here. I want to stay here, yes.” (C. Trent Rosecrans)

How much would this cost? Judging by recent contracts signed by Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke, Cueto would likely receive offers in the range of 6-years, $150 million on the open market. Just maybe because of his age — Hamels and Greinke were 29, Cueto would be 30 — the duration would be only five years. Just maybe because the Reds could offer Cueto the security of a new contract before he has to take the mound in 2015, they get a little average annual value (AAV) discount.

But even with those generous assumptions, a Cueto extension with the Reds would cost $23 million AAV for five years.

Maybe that’s in the organization’s plan. But I doubt it.

Like Shin-Soo Choo, who I think the Reds had intended to re-sign when they traded for him, Johnny Cueto had too great of a season right before the Reds needed to negotiate. His thrilling Cy Young-caliber performance, punctuated by that improbable eighth-inning hit and win number 20, priced Cueto right off our team.

Don’t judge the Reds harshly for not negotiating with Cueto last offseason. He’d been on the DL three times in 2013. No one knew for sure back then if Cueto could stay healthy while pitching with his new super-twisty motion. If you were one of the few agitating for an extension twelve months ago, you were wrong, based on what was known at the time.

I’m not even sure the Reds should sign a 30-year-old pitcher to an expensive five- or six- year deal, even if they could. They’d benefit more by putting that $100 million-plus toward a couple hitting upgrades between now and 2020.

Option 3: Trade him this winter

Johnny Cueto would be attractive to any contending team. As a pitcher with Cy Young stuff who costs (risks) only $10 million, Cueto would offer that team a low-risk alternative to a nine-figure, long-term free agent contract for John Lester, Max Schurzer or James Shields.

In exchange, the Reds could receive an established impact hitter in return, or a tippy-top prospect and more. Or, they’d look for a combination – a second-tier player who can help them in left field now, for a year or two or three, plus a solid pitching prospect. Caveat on top prospects, though. Studies show that way more than half of top-100 prospects bust. Even among that group of players, generally only the top few prospects have decent returns, and there’s no guarantee.

Trading Cueto would provide needed salary relief. But if that’s the Reds main goal, moving Latos or Leake would save about the same. Buster Olney of ESPN suggests the Reds package Cueto with Brandon Phillips, say to the Yankees, with a player like Brett Gardner as part of the return. Gardner is three years younger, plays left field and a little less expensive than BP. Toronto is another team that could use DatDude and a front-line pitcher.

The downside of trading Cueto is the gap between his pitching performance and that of his replacement. The Reds don’t have an obvious candidate to step into Cueto’s spot. Robert Stephenson isn’t ready. Maybe Dylan Axelrod or David Holmberg would be passable. Maybe Tony Cingrani’s shoulder will heal up and he’ll develop a second and third pitch. Maybe Rasiel Iglesias, who finally pitched for the organization today. Lots of maybe there.

On the other hand, the Reds have tried it for two years without enough hitting and we know how that turned out. No one will replace Johnny Cueto’s performance. But the Reds might yet be better with 162 games’ worth of improved hitting.

Option 4: Trade him in July

The Reds could hold on to Cueto (and the other pitchers) until the trade deadline and then make a move or two if they aren’t in the pennant race. If the hitting (and health) has come around, hold on to the top-rate rotation for the postseason.

In what might be a model for the Reds, the Red Sox traded Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes at the 2014 trade deadline. The Cubs traded Jeff Samardzija for one of the top position player prospects in baseball and the Rays traded David Price at the deadline for a nice haul of players. But both Samardzija and Price had 1.5 years before free agency.

Yes, teams can be desperate at the deadline (Milwaukee: Broxton salary dump, who-hoo). But your menu of trade partners shrinks in July. Don’t bother to call the teams out of contention or know they don’t need a starter. The Reds could cast a wider net before the season starts.

And with waiting, there’s a risk that Cueto gets hurt again or, less likely, struggles in the first half, reducing his value compared to the start of the season.

* * *

It’s odd to consider trading — to be willing to trade — Johnny Cueto. He was the Reds MVP last year. Never played for another major league organization. But Cueto’s worth is well known and, most importantly, quantified. Five WAR. That’s a lot, but that’s all.

It’s imperative for the Reds to follow Michael Corleone’s lead and demystify their thinking about Cueto. The front office, including the owner, shouldn’t overvalue him because he’s homegrown. That’s a sentimental word used recently by Bryan Price and Walt Jocketty. Further, the Reds can’t be paralyzed by absolute prioritization of pitching over hitting. Or by the equally sloppy corollary they won’t be able to replace Cueto.

The mortal enemies of the Reds? Not the St. Louis Cardinals or Pittsburgh Pirates. Try obsolete frameworks, risk aversion and undue love of their own guys. Those are the forces that have defeated our team since the Shin-Soo Choo trade.

Translation: The Cincinnati Reds must be open to trading Johnny Cueto. Wide open and active. If another team makes the right offer, the Reds can’t refuse.

They need a WAR-time front office.

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Well, I think the Reds will find a way to keep Cueto. It is how ownership works with homegrown talent. They will open up their wallets and give him what he needs.

But regardless, I still think giving up Cueto who is a CY Young contender plus an aging but still completely viable 2nd baseman that can still play very good defense and a couple of prospects is too much. Bautista is good, but he isn't 26 (will turn 34 in 2 days) and he has had injury issues. 2 out of the past 3 years he has missed significant time and 3 out of the past 6 years as well. He did put together a very good year this year, that I will give you. But if you look at his career, he has had a grand total of 3 years that one could consider putting him in "elite" category and worthy of such a trade.

Don't get me wrong, I like Bautista and think he would do well in Cincy, but his 2 MONSTER years (2010 & 2011) make him out to be more than he really is.

Cueto and Phillips are injury prone. I wouldn't give Cueto 200mil (which he will probably get) when he has had a history of injuries. Bautista is owed $28 million in the next 2 years. Considering his production when healthy, that isn't bad at all. Trading Cueto and Phillips there would be $23 million next year which would save $9 mil on the books that they could use and try and get a second baseman (or plug Negron in there). Could help get a couple other complimentary pieces as well or use it and extend Mesoraco/Frazier early while they are still cheap.

[Motown]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Cueto & Chapman for Kemp & Puig

[slickdtc]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

This weekend has been incredible! I'm from Delaware, about 20 minutes south of Philadelphia but I've been a Reds fan since I started watching baseball seriously. A few months ago, a convention was scheduled in Cincinnati... and I jumped on it. Yeah I've had to work 9 to 7 since I got here on Friday (4 to 8 that night), but we were able to take in some of the Reds stuff and it's been truly a dream come true for a guy who didn't know if he'd ever see his Reds in person. Some pictures:

In front of the stadium/Reds HOF


Chillin' in the Reds HOF clubhouse


I wish this was my Man Cave!


Celebrating with the Big Red Machine!!


One of my favorites, "The Mayor" Sean Casey. We had a moment.


Couldn't get on to the field so this was the best we could do lol



This pizza joint/bar across from our hotel had a bunch of signed balls from Reds past and present. Pretty sure this is Brandon Phillips judging by the #4. I'm pretty drunk at this point LOL


What an incredible time! Cincy, your city is beautiful. And the pride in your sports teams rivals that of my "hometown" Philadelphia. Its football season so there's been plenty of Bengals gear, but I've seen more Reds stuff and they had a bad year and it's the offseason. True fans. A real baseball town. Made me so proud. Thanks for having us!

[HustlinOwl]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

2015 already looking a whole lot better 3B Coach Steve Smith Fired, yes 3B coaching news is what this team has resorted to SMDH #FirePrice

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Well, hopefully this means that maybe Mark Berry's health has improved to the point that he could come back and be the third base coach.

Either way, when you have a ML leading 28 guys thrown out at home plate, something obviously needs to be changed.

[CaseIH]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

2015 already looking a whole lot better 3B Coach Steve Smith Fired, yes 3B coaching news is what this team has resorted to SMDH #FirePrice

Glad to hear Steve Smith was fired, thats the best news I have heard since hearing Brook Jacoby got fired,lol.

I thought after all the base runners he sentgetting thrown out at home would spell doom for him at some point. That was some fo the worst base coaching Ive ever witnessed.

[redsrule]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Sounds like you had a great time Slick! Shame you couldn't get down during baseball season though to see a game.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/21/should-the-reds-trade-for-yoenis-cespedes/

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox could make Yoenis Cespedes available this offseason in his column on Sunday.

Word is spreading that the Red Sox could make Cespedes available. He will earn $10.2 million in the final year of his deal. Cespedes said late in the season that he wasn’t sure whether he’d engage in long-term talks with the Red Sox. Couple that with his desire not to play right field or work on his defense, and that could make him a trade candidate as the Red Sox try to pare their outfield depth and possibly make room for Mookie Betts or add a lefthanded hitter

Well……there is an impact bat that the Reds could get to fill their left-field hole.

Steve Mancuso already covered Yoenis Cespedes in Left Field Trade Targets, Part 2, but with the news that Cespedes could actually be available surfacing, let’s look a little deeper.

Cespedes is coming off a slightly disappointing season based on what you would have expected from him. Between the A’s and Red Sox, Cespedes hit .260/.301/.450 with 22 HR, 100 RBI, 109 wRC+, and 3.4 WAR. Those numbers are a far cry from when Cespedes finished 2nd in the AL Rookie of the Year, and 10th in the MVP voting when he came on the scene in 2012. That season, Cespedes hit .292/.356/.505 with 23 HR, 70 RBI, 139 wRC+, and 2.9 WAR in 129 games.

2014 Yoenis Cespedes would still be a major upgrade from the Reds 2014 LF production.



Ok, so maybe a major upgrade was a bit of an understatement?

Cespedes would make the Reds offense in 2015 a lot better. Early projections from Steamer project him to hit .271/.322/.473 with 23 HR, 83 RBI, 119 wRC+, and 3.0 WAR. Obviously, Cespedes’ .301 OBP from 2014 was well below the league average of .312, but he is projected to jump back above that next season at .322. Getting on base was certainly one of the Reds biggest issues in 2014, and something that needs to be addressed. However, Cespedes’ consistent power makes him an above average hitter even if he only gets on base about 30% of the time. He is also a great defender in left-field, who has the ability to play center-field. Cespedes has 17 DRS and a 9.6 career UZR/150 in over 2300 career innings in LF.

I can already picture the Reds lineup with Cespedes, and it is beautiful thing (and you can shuffle 2-6 however you would like, or even drop Hamilton to 8th or 9th):

1. Hamilton
2. Votto
3. Frazier
4. Cespedes
5. Bruce
6. Mesoraco
7. Phillips
8. Cozart

Cespedes only has one year remaining on his contract, and will get paid $10.5 million in 2015. With each win using wins above replacement being worth over $5 million, he would certainly be worth well above $10.5 million for 2015. It would certainly be unlikely that the Reds could re-sign him past 2015 with their already allotted payroll, but you never know.

The biggest problem with Yoenis Cespedes isn’t his OBP, or even his $10.5 million contract. It is what it would cost to get him. I would assume that the Red Sox aren’t look for prospects for him (something the Reds don’t have a lot anyways). This is a team that is only one (not even finished yet) season removed from being the World Series champs. The only reason that I would believe the Red Sox would want to trade Cespedes would be to get better right away. And after trading their ace Jon Lester to get Cespedes at the trade deadline (maybe a move they planned on flipping from the beginning), they need something the Reds have: starting pitching.

The Reds have three really good starting pitchers who are set to be free agents following 2015: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake. So would any of those three be worth trading for Cespedes?

Johnny Cueto

There is no way the Reds should trade Cueto straight up for Cespedes. Cueto is coming off a 4.1 WAR season, where posted a 2.25 ERA and 3.20 FIP. Steamer projections for Cueto are a bit slim for 2015, saying Cueto will only be worth 2.7 WAR. That still isn’t enough to me to make want a Cueto for Cespedes deal straight up. Cueto has a $10 million option for 2015 that will certainly be picked up, so he and Cespedes will be making about the same amount of money next seasons.

The only way I would consider a Cueto for Cespedes deal would be if it included another major league ready starting pitcher to replace Cueto (Joe Kelly), or a solid prospect.

Mat Latos

Latos for Cespedes seems like as fair of a trade straight up as you could possibly imagine. If the Red Sox are looking to trade Cespedes for a young established starting pitcher, this would would seem like the best fit. Latos is coming off a season where he only made 16 starts, after batting arm injuries all season. Despite some serious concerns with his declining fastball velocity, his numbers were only slightly down from his outstanding 2013 season (3.25 ERA, 3.65 FIP).

This would be a move that the Reds could make to to significantly include their offense, and then have a direct focus on the future. The Reds could then cross Latos off the list, and focus on extending Cueto and/or Leake. The Red Sox certainly have the payroll flexibility, so a player with only one year left on their deal wouldn’t likely be a big concern for them.

Mike Leake

To this point in Mike Leake’s career, he has been an average MLB pitcher. He was certainly a solid starting pitcher in 2014, posting a 3.70 ERA, and a career best 3.88 FIP. Leake drastically improved from 2013 to 2014 in K/9 (5.71 to 6.89). That is certainly encouraging. With that being said, it would be pretty hard to believe the Red Sox would even consider Leake for Cespedes. My gut feeling would be that the Red Sox would want a top of the rotation starting pitcher for Cespedes. A deal for Leake would have to have a lot of other pieces surrounding it.

Alfredo Simon or Tony Cingrani

Dream on.

Propsects

The Reds farm system certainly isn’t loaded, and it would be hard to believe the Red Sox would be looking to rebuild. I am sure Robert Stephenson or Jesse Winker for Cespedes could have a lot of potential, but I don’t think the Reds should look into giving away a top prospect for a 1-year rental player.

Conclusion

Walt Jocketty should absolutely be on the phone with Ben Cherington about Cespedes. There is no way the Reds can resign both Cueto and Latos past 2015. If the Reds could get a player of Cespedes caliber, and maybe even more for a starter they are already going to lose, I say go for it.

[CaseIH]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

http://redlegnation.com/2014/10/21/s...enis-cespedes/

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that the Red Sox could make Yoenis Cespedes available this offseason in his column on Sunday.



Well……there is an impact bat that the Reds could get to fill their left-field hole.

Steve Mancuso already covered Yoenis Cespedes in Left Field Trade Targets, Part 2, but with the news that Cespedes could actually be available surfacing, let’s look a little deeper.

Cespedes is coming off a slightly disappointing season based on what you would have expected from him. Between the A’s and Red Sox, Cespedes hit .260/.301/.450 with 22 HR, 100 RBI, 109 wRC+, and 3.4 WAR. Those numbers are a far cry from when Cespedes finished 2nd in the AL Rookie of the Year, and 10th in the MVP voting when he came on the scene in 2012. That season, Cespedes hit .292/.356/.505 with 23 HR, 70 RBI, 139 wRC+, and 2.9 WAR in 129 games.

2014 Yoenis Cespedes would still be a major upgrade from the Reds 2014 LF production.



Ok, so maybe a major upgrade was a bit of an understatement?

Cespedes would make the Reds offense in 2015 a lot better. Early projections from Steamer project him to hit .271/.322/.473 with 23 HR, 83 RBI, 119 wRC+, and 3.0 WAR. Obviously, Cespedes’ .301 OBP from 2014 was well below the league average of .312, but he is projected to jump back above that next season at .322. Getting on base was certainly one of the Reds biggest issues in 2014, and something that needs to be addressed. However, Cespedes’ consistent power makes him an above average hitter even if he only gets on base about 30% of the time. He is also a great defender in left-field, who has the ability to play center-field. Cespedes has 17 DRS and a 9.6 career UZR/150 in over 2300 career innings in LF.

I can already picture the Reds lineup with Cespedes, and it is beautiful thing (and you can shuffle 2-6 however you would like, or even drop Hamilton to 8th or 9th):

1. Hamilton
2. Votto
3. Frazier
4. Cespedes
5. Bruce
6. Mesoraco
7. Phillips
8. Cozart

Cespedes only has one year remaining on his contract, and will get paid $10.5 million in 2015. With each win using wins above replacement being worth over $5 million, he would certainly be worth well above $10.5 million for 2015. It would certainly be unlikely that the Reds could re-sign him past 2015 with their already allotted payroll, but you never know.

The biggest problem with Yoenis Cespedes isn’t his OBP, or even his $10.5 million contract. It is what it would cost to get him. I would assume that the Red Sox aren’t look for prospects for him (something the Reds don’t have a lot anyways). This is a team that is only one (not even finished yet) season removed from being the World Series champs. The only reason that I would believe the Red Sox would want to trade Cespedes would be to get better right away. And after trading their ace Jon Lester to get Cespedes at the trade deadline (maybe a move they planned on flipping from the beginning), they need something the Reds have: starting pitching.

The Reds have three really good starting pitchers who are set to be free agents following 2015: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake. So would any of those three be worth trading for Cespedes?

Johnny Cueto

There is no way the Reds should trade Cueto straight up for Cespedes. Cueto is coming off a 4.1 WAR season, where posted a 2.25 ERA and 3.20 FIP. Steamer projections for Cueto are a bit slim for 2015, saying Cueto will only be worth 2.7 WAR. That still isn’t enough to me to make want a Cueto for Cespedes deal straight up. Cueto has a $10 million option for 2015 that will certainly be picked up, so he and Cespedes will be making about the same amount of money next seasons.

The only way I would consider a Cueto for Cespedes deal would be if it included another major league ready starting pitcher to replace Cueto (Joe Kelly), or a solid prospect.

Mat Latos

Latos for Cespedes seems like as fair of a trade straight up as you could possibly imagine. If the Red Sox are looking to trade Cespedes for a young established starting pitcher, this would would seem like the best fit. Latos is coming off a season where he only made 16 starts, after batting arm injuries all season. Despite some serious concerns with his declining fastball velocity, his numbers were only slightly down from his outstanding 2013 season (3.25 ERA, 3.65 FIP).

This would be a move that the Reds could make to to significantly include their offense, and then have a direct focus on the future. The Reds could then cross Latos off the list, and focus on extending Cueto and/or Leake. The Red Sox certainly have the payroll flexibility, so a player with only one year left on their deal wouldn’t likely be a big concern for them.

Mike Leake

To this point in Mike Leake’s career, he has been an average MLB pitcher. He was certainly a solid starting pitcher in 2014, posting a 3.70 ERA, and a career best 3.88 FIP. Leake drastically improved from 2013 to 2014 in K/9 (5.71 to 6.89). That is certainly encouraging. With that being said, it would be pretty hard to believe the Red Sox would even consider Leake for Cespedes. My gut feeling would be that the Red Sox would want a top of the rotation starting pitcher for Cespedes. A deal for Leake would have to have a lot of other pieces surrounding it.

Alfredo Simon or Tony Cingrani

Dream on.

Propsects

The Reds farm system certainly isn’t loaded, and it would be hard to believe the Red Sox would be looking to rebuild. I am sure Robert Stephenson or Jesse Winker for Cespedes could have a lot of potential, but I don’t think the Reds should look into giving away a top prospect for a 1-year rental player.

Conclusion

Walt Jocketty should absolutely be on the phone with Ben Cherington about Cespedes. There is no way the Reds can resign both Cueto and Latos past 2015. If the Reds could get a player of Cespedes caliber, and maybe even more for a starter they are already going to lose, I say go for it.

Cespedes would certainly be a offensive difference maker if we could pull of a trade to get him. Put him in the cleanup hole and say Frazier in the 2 hole and Votto would have the most protection he has ever had. Cespedes #'s dont jump right at you, but he is indeed a difference maker, just look what he meant to the A's after he left. I thought at the time Beane was making a bad move by making that trade.

I dont think the Reds will entertain offers for Cueto, but will shop all of the other starters as well as other players in general. I see Cueto staying with the Reds, and them paying him as well as Cueto probably working with them so he can stay with the Reds. I see Latos being shoppped hard since he isnt home grown. With Latos injury issues this yr you got to think he value is down some, and the fact that other teams know that the Reds are deseprate for offense and bullpen help along with being financially limited will make it tough for Walt to make moves unfortunately. Hopefully he is able to get a big bat somehow, and fix the pen, bullpen shouldbe the easiest thing to fix, so Im not to worried about that getting fixed, I am worried that it will be hard to get a bat without giving up a ton though.

[CaseIH]

Re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Cueto and Phillips are injury prone. I wouldn't give Cueto 200mil (which he will probably get) when he has had a history of injuries. Bautista is owed $28 million in the next 2 years. Considering his production when healthy, that isn't bad at all. Trading Cueto and Phillips there would be $23 million next year which would save $9 mil on the books that they could use and try and get a second baseman (or plug Negron in there). Could help get a couple other complimentary pieces as well or use it and extend Mesoraco/Frazier early while they are still cheap.

BP hasnt been injury prone in his career, but the last couple years he has had to play thru some injuries and this yr was the 1st time in a hwile he had been on the DL. I would say with all the beatings his hand and wrist has taken with HBP, that it could become problematic for him at this stage in his career.

I do worry about Cueto injury prone. Not that he has had anything real serious, but he does seem to have a every other yr issue with staying healthy, so it makes you worry that this next season will he stay healthy.

Perosnally I dont like to give any player long term deals, and especially not pitchers, and Im even partial to pitchers since I was a pitcher, but they are fragile, especially now days these guys just arent as tough as guys use to be, but thats this generation of guys in general really.

I definitely wouldnt break the bank if I was the Reds to sign Cueto, considering some of the young arms we have in the system. Pitching in the farm system is the only place we have much talent.

I do think Cueto might very well take a home town discount, and I know the Reds prefer to keep home grown talent, so we might get him on a descent deal to keep him. No doubt when healthy there isnt many better in all of baseball than Cueto is, and he does it in a hitters park even.