CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Because at age 45 you don't magically stop needed to go the grocery store. You don't magically not have a spouse, or kids in your house who might be younger and being exposed "normally" and then bring it home to you.

The whole idea behind social distancing from the beginning wasn't to keep the 40 year from getting it because he might die. It was because the 40 year old interacts with persons A through Z at work, at home, running errands, and through social gatherings. Then each of those persons each interact with their own versions of A through Z who interact with their own version so A through Z and so on until eventually the higher risk people actually are exposed through no fault of their own.

This is how spring breakers in Florida end up infecting multiple people in vermont, kentucky and new york. The math that public health experts at places like the CDC understand is that the spread is exponential.

People are doing that anyway. You don't think 40 year olds are doing their parent's grocery shopping already?

[countryboy]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Nobody dying from this virus is acceptable on a human level. However, are you willing to lose small businesses (it's a dream that these businesses will just magically open back up once it ends) and millions of jobs because you don't want people going back to work who's death rate is about .7%?

It is a fairytale that the government can just keep printing more and more money to keep these jobs afloat.

EDIT: Your second paragraph made it seem like two deaths from 1-4 were unacceptable. Therefore, your red line would be 0, unless for some weird reason your red line was 1.

You really don't get it do you?

I'm done.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

People are doing that anyway. You don't think 40 year olds are doing their parent's grocery shopping already?

Some are, some aren't.

I know some senior mom and dads without family in the area are ordering groceries online.

I noticed a article in the paper about a month ago that online retail grocery shopping has increased exponentially.

https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2020/03/19/coronavirus-is-changing-shoppers-relationship-with-grocery-retailers/

[KSUowls]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

People are doing that anyway. You don't think 40 year olds are doing their parent's grocery shopping already?

I was hoping that I wouldn't need to add the qualification to the grocery store comment since the entire rest of the post talked about the exponential effect.

For the 50 people you walk by at the grocery store today there is a lower chance that one of them is contagious thanks to social distancing and stay at home orders because they aren't out interacting "normally" with 50 people each and increasing their chances of being exposed and subsequently increasing your chances of getting it from one of them. It's a multiplier effect. Just like there is always a patient 0 who ends up infecting people half way around the world, it's the continuous spread that you have to worry about.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Some are, some aren't.

I know some senior mom and dads without family in the area are ordering groceries online.

I noticed a article in the paper about a month ago that online retail grocery shopping has increased exponentially.

https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2...ery-retailers/

Unless they practice social distancing, masks, or are having it delivered to their residence, they are risking exposure.

I'm not suggesting for 40 year olds to not be responsible and breathe all over each other. I am suggesting that 40 years olds and younger go back to some degree of normalcy while practicing social distancing and masks. If you are responsible, you have nothing to worry about in regards to giving it to others.

I can make it clearer:

Go to work. Wear a mask and social distance.

Go to the beach. Wear a mask and social distance.

Go to the grocery store. Wear a mask and social distance.

You keep making people stay at home, and it starts to mess with them psychologically. People need purpose. They start getting antsy, get scared, get riled up, and start having riots. You will actually make it worse.

Me personally, since I am an introvert, it's not been that bad. But I can say that lately I have started getting a little annoyed not having the option to do something. There's only so much playing Madden, listening to country music, and watching MCU that I can do.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Unless they practice social distancing, masks, or are having it delivered to their residence, they are risking exposure.

I'm not suggesting for 40 year olds to not be responsible and breathe all over each other. I am suggesting that 40 years olds and younger go back to some degree of normalcy while practicing social distancing and masks. If you are responsible, you have nothing to worry about in regards to giving it to others.

I can make it clearer:

Go to work. Wear a mask and social distance.

Go to the beach. Wear a mask and social distance.

Go to the grocery store. Wear a mask and social distance.

Agree for the most part of all of this, but the last. I just don't trust anyone I don't know. I'm sure not all 40 year old and younger won't wear mask and I'm sure some will.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

And then there is this: embarrassing to say the least.

https://twitter.com/COSProjectWI/status/1251562504054026245

Bingo PC

I hate how stupid people congregating with American flags is somehow mixed up with the idea of patriotism. My criticism is they are most likely putting themselves ahead of country and not the other way around.

If I organize a rally for people who don't want to chew with their mouths closed or don't want to brush their teeth or whatever stupid position I'm advocating for...I go buy a bunch of flags and all of a sudden my "movement" is wrapped in "liberty." It's such a warped concept and people are so damn gullible.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Agree for the most part of all of this, but the last. I just don't trust anyone I don't know. I'm sure not all 40 year old and younger won't wear mask and I'm sure some will.

If you are wearing a mask and social distance, it shouldn't matter what they are doing. I mean, I am sure there are some morons, but I dont believe someone is going to run up and breathe on you just to be a jerk. And if they do, they need to be arrested.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

If you are wearing a mask and social distance, it shouldn't matter what they are doing. I mean, I am sure there are some morons, but I dont believe someone is going to run up and breathe on you just to be a jerk. And if they do, they need to be arrested.

Of course they just won't run up and breathe on you, but I've already have had to tell people 6ft and some give me a strange look.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Of course they just won't run up and breathe on you, but I've already have had to tell people 6ft and some give me a strange look.

I've had those looks too picking up a grocery order at walmart. He kept approaching me while I was backing up. We were pretty much two stepping in the parking lot. People are just going to have to be blunt to the point of rudeness sometimes. It's a different time right now.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Unless they practice social distancing, masks, or are having it delivered to their residence, they are risking exposure.

I'm not suggesting for 40 year olds to not be responsible and breathe all over each other. I am suggesting that 40 years olds and younger go back to some degree of normalcy while practicing social distancing and masks. If you are responsible, you have nothing to worry about in regards to giving it to others.

I can make it clearer:

Go to work. Wear a mask and social distance.

Go to the beach. Wear a mask and social distance.

Go to the grocery store. Wear a mask and social distance.

You keep making people stay at home, and it starts to mess with them psychologically. People need purpose. They start getting antsy, get scared, get riled up, and start having riots. You will actually make it worse.

What's clear is you have no ****ing clue how a virus works. I mean, you said that we were on the decline, so overwhelming resources is no longer an issue, as though the virus has a set time period and we are just waiting for it to end.

The social distancing and keeping people home has started to bring the numbers down. They can go right back up, as we saw in the aftermath of the Wisconsin primary.

What doctors are looking for is getting the daily new cases down to less than 1 new case per million people in the community, whether that is a state, county or city. At that point, we can target a new case, shut down a small area, and trace it, catching everyone that might have gotten it.

That why when Trump said 15 cases was no big deal, he was the one that crapped the economy. THAT'S when we could have really knocked this out. It would have been expensive, but nowhere near the damage that economy has suffered now. That was the time we could talk about the economy.

So where are we now? Check your state.

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/

Missouri is at 34 new cases per million. To get it down to 0.3-1.0, it would be 2-6 new cases a day. We had 245 yesterday, and have been averaging around 240 a day for two weeks before it began to drop. Today was another little spike.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

But that's not what he stated. He stated his "red line" was no deaths.

EDIT: Both graphs are bad arguments. That is cumulative death rates. Those graphs can only go up. The graphs you want is day to day cases and deaths. Then you need to break it down by age bracket.

The exponential growth is the entire point of the charts, and indeed, the reason behind the general concern with the virus and why comparisons with the flu and car accidents are glib and dumb. We're talking about a huge number of deaths in a short window.

40,000 deaths (which is a minimum figure, btw) in less than two months *after* economic activity and public life ground to a halt seems like a big deal to me. Just tired of the downplaying.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

That's why I said:

1) The nation is on the decline.

2) The reopening of the economy should be allocated to the states because every state is in a different place.

Perhaps read everything I have written.

EDIT: You might want to edit your post and keep the politics out of it. I don't want you to get in trouble and have this thread locked.

The exponential growth is the entire point of the charts, and indeed, the reason behind the general concern with the virus and why comparisons with the flu and car accidents are glib and dumb.

40,000 deaths (which is a minimum figure, btw) in less than two months *after* economic activity and public life ground to a halt seems like a big deal to me. Just tired of the downplaying.

I'm not downplaying anything. I was all for the lockdown. But at some point, we got to open it back up. And new data every day points that we are edging closer and closer to it.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I'm not downplaying anything. I was all for the lockdown. But at some point, we got to open it back up. And new data every day points that we are edging closer and closer to it.

This is a straw man. Everyone agrees there needs to be a phased-in plan to end the lockdowns, but you can't undo them too soon and risk some of the progress we've made against the virus. You need a rigorous testing and tracing regime like they have in Germany and South Korea if you want to go back to halfway normal, but we're not remotely there yet.

[p_rushing]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

40,000 deaths (which is a minimum figure, btw) in less than two months *after* economic activity and public life ground to a halt seems like a big deal to me. Just tired of the downplaying.

The main issue is we don't really know what is realistic because the models are all wrong and the virus may have been everywhere longer than known. When you start out saying 1-2 million people are going to die, then 100,000-240,000 even with all the rules in place, it puts mistrust out there.

With the issues with the models and data, would most of the country had a problem like NY if they didn't shut everything down? Most places are fine, my county has more shootings than covid19 deaths. We just don't know because they tried to scare everyone with huge #s of deaths. Social distancing definitely helped, but we really don't know how much. Risk of death is unfortunately an accepted part of being alive, so at some point the risk is low enough to start the economy again.

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