A little analysis & breakdown on the passing averages in the Pros over the past three years.
60% of attempted passes are completed.
25% of attempted passes are negated by QB Avoidance (spikes and throw aways), Hits while thrown (HWT) and Passes Defensed (deflections and jarring hits on target), as well as errant passes (missed targets and dead balls).
6% of attempted passes result in a sack
5% of attempted passes are resulted in a dropped ball by target thrown to
4% of attempted passes are resulted in interceptions
35 Passss are attempted per game on average per team.
Of those 35 Pass Attempts: 20 are completed and 15 are deemed incomplete on average.
Of those 15 incomplete balls (40%): 2.1 (14%) are the result of sacks, and 1.75 (11.6%) go into the Drop bucket while another 1.4 (9.3%) go into the INT Bucket.
In analysis: 35% (5.25) of the average starting QB's Incomplete Passes (15) are the sum of sacks, drops by targets, and interceptions by the defense.
That leaves you with another 65% of incomplete balls that are the result of QB Avoidance: spikes and throw aways; hit while throwing, pass deflections / dropped interceptions, and errant passes.
This 65% remaining is a total of 9.75 more incomplete balls that fall into the above four categories of QB avoidance, Hits while thrown, Passes defended, and errant throws .
Another statistic to consider that is not quantified and qualified officially is QB Pressures: The average QB is sacked within 2.7 - 2.8s with an average pocket threshold of 3s.
If we shrink this data to fit a typical Madden online game and use 20 pass attempts per game as our average user pass attempt / game, we will get the following data.
12/20 = Completions
1.2/20 = Sacks
1/20 = Drops (legitimate dopped catch; not a strip or big hit that jars the ball loose)
.8/20 = Interceptions
Since 40% of attempted passes in the NFL result in an incompletion: we can infer that the remaining five (5) balls should result in wildcard scenarios: errant throws, defended passes, QB avoidance, and hits while thrown.
Consider the small sample size when we shrink the NFL numbers to fit your average online game: 4 in MUT and 6 in H2H Ranked.
The other big difference outside of quarter length between the two fields of play is decision making: your typical Madden gamer does not make prototypical reads nor does he have prototypical pocket presence to make prototypical decisons under duress when the pocket collapses: how do we distinguish the elite from the weak in respect to pocket presence in Madden?.
The above unravels some tidbits that could go a longer way than simply ushering in an iteration of more errant passes: the battlefield also needs a trench that is conducive to protecting the flank of the QBs peripheral vision.
Offensive tackles attempt their six yard drops in an effort to "entreanch" their drop-stepping QB who needs protection on his wings so he can step into his throw comfortably. The gaurds also need to work to drop to 4yards and protect the interior while the Center identifies the Mike.
If the pocket is able to emulate the depth of an NFL pocket then we can start accounting for dynamic pocket presence that tunes linemen to make fundamental and appropriate targets and not blind, psychic pickups.
It is not errant throws that require more attention but the factors that govern those errant throws: pressure and coverage, composure and arm strength, even QB height in relationship to the situation.
Errant throws are part of the 25% bucket of incomplete passes (attempts that do not reach target or defender) which is the biggest bucket of the incomplete bunch albeit we can tell from game film that it is a small drop in that bucket and an even smaller drop in the pool of incomplete passes.
Madden will require a deep dive overhaul at some point in the WR/DB interactions and Line of Scrimmage interactions if it is to simulate these gradient fractions in the passing intervals of the game
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