Scripted momentum/equalizer cheese

[Craxior]

Quote: Originally Posted by ChiliPalmer

It becomes borderline panda trolling now, but you know what. Any1 who denies it can play me and i will record and stream the game. Just DM me for psn. In other news Russel Westbrick dunked not over 3 but 4 defenders last night as i half court trapped PLUS manually quadruppled on the drive. Of course you can use these mechanics for own runs as well, just drive and draw the foul if you behind, no matter how many defenders contest. This has also to do with too many foul calls on drioves in traffic which should be toned down in general. When playing PNO these kinda things wont happen tho. I would say PNO is 90 % skill, while MT is about 50%.

PNO is more skill based because idiots don't have access to entire team of NBA legends. Really My Team is s cesspool cheeser paradise.

[ChiliPalmer]

Quote: Originally Posted by Craxior

PNO is more skill based because idiots don't have access to entire team of NBA legends. Really My Team is s cesspool cheeser paradise.

This is true. Still, there are some dumb cheesers in PNO as well and they barely have a chance vs any skilled player.

[QNo]

Quote: Originally Posted by synistr

forget everything we said and answer this question.... has your playing experience for the most part been thoroughly realistic and sim-like? mine hasnt. I see way too much stuff that just doesnt happen in a league where you have the best players in the world in. the only thing I am pointing out is that I can tell exactly when these things will happen and to what degree.

But 2k not being sim and 2k being scripted for certain players to win/comeback are two wholly separate claims. One is about programming not being great, the other about programming intentionally rigging the game for some reason.

I used to be an elite professional poker player. I made lots of money from people because they don't understand randomness. How could they, our brain developed in a very different way. It takes years of training to overcome some of these instincts. I recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Fools of Randomness for an introduction as to how all of us commonly attribute things to our own abilities that are but a product of randomness.

Basketball and thus 2k is a game of very high variance. There is a reason playoff series are best of 7, not best of one. Variance trumps slight differences in skill in the short term (one or several games). But in the long-term, skill trumps variance.

Think about the 2013 finals. If Ray Allen doesn't make the shot in game 6, the series is over and the Spurs take the title. That shot will miss more than half the time, statistically. But this time it went in, enabling the Heat to go on to a game 7 that they would eventually win. Even championships get decided on the narrowest of edges.

The poker analogy I always give is that, on a given night, an amateur has like a 45-55 chance to come out on top of the best player of the world. That's how much random card distribution matters. But if they play every night for a year, the chances that the pro will be ahead are way above 99%. Now, I don't know what these probabiities in 2k are. So let us turn to an easier and simplified example instead.

Imagine if you play a good possession and get an open corner 3 with a good shooter. Let's stipulate that that 3 has a 40% probability of going on, which is a reasonable number. What are the odds that you miss two of these in a row?

The answer is 36%. Most people would guess that the probability should be much lower. For comparison, the probability that you make two such 3s in a row is only 16%. 48% of the time you're going to make one and miss one.

So, 36% of the time you will miss two open 3s in a row, an event that will lead many to cry out that the game is rigged. Now, let's say that your opponent will take a bad contested 3 in between your two shots and it goes in. Let us stipulate that that 3 goes in 25% of the time. Now, in the long run, the guy taking 40% shots will win, but it might just be that this is the one time where you miss both of your shots while your opponent makes his. The probability of this chain of events (you miss a good shot, he makes a bad shot, you miss another good shot) is 9%. Let us call this sequence of events WOAT.

9%! This is exactly the kind of thing that people will make angry forum posts and videos about, yet it is not terribly uncommon. We will probably have events like this (we miss a good shot, they make a bad one, we miss another good shot) many time in any given game against a bad opponent. If we have 10 such chains of events in a single game, chances are that the 9% scenario we described will happen once a game.

It might even happen more often in reality. Maybe we are playing very meticulously and get 40FGA in a given game, all of which are decent to good shots. Our opponent is a chucker, 20 of his 40 FGA are bad. In such an event, there will be an average of 2 WOAT sequences a game. The way our brain tends to remember bad instances like this and forget the good, 'normal', ones, this can quickly condition one to believe in comeback code, etc.

The explanation that one game mode (MT) has comeback logic while another (PNO) doesn't is especially troublesome. Why should 2k have such code for one mode and not another? The more straightforward explanation is that the differences between the 2 modes is what causes this change in perception (many superstars and thus making more tough shots, thus decreasing the edge 'solid' play has over 'chucking'/more badges/lower difficulty setting).

[ChiliPalmer]

Quote: Originally Posted by QNo

But 2k not being sim and 2k being scripted for certain players to win/comeback are two wholly separate claims. One is about programming not being great, the other about programming intentionally rigging the game for some reason. I used to be an elite professional poker player. I made lots of money from people because they don't understand randomness. How could they, our brain developed in a very different way. It takes years of training to overcome some of these instincts. I recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Fools of Randomness for an introduction as to how all of us commonly attribute things to our own abilities that are but a product of randomness. Basketball and thus 2k is a game of very high variance. There is a reason playoff series are best of 7, not best of one. Variance trumps slight differences in skill in the short term (one or several games). But in the long-term, skill trumps variance. Think about the 2013 finals. If Ray Allen doesn't make the shot in game 6, the series is over and the Spurs take the title. That shot will miss more than half the time, statistically. But this time it went in, enabling the Heat to go on to a game 7 that they would eventually win. Even championships get decided on the narrowest of edges. The poker analogy I always give is that, on a given night, an amateur has like a 45-55 chance to come out on top of the best player of the world. That's how much random card distribution matters. But if they play every night for a year, the chances that the pro will be ahead are way above 99%. Now, I don't know what these probabiities in 2k are. So let us turn to an easier and simplified example instead. Imagine if you play a good possession and get an open corner 3 with a good shooter. Let's stipulate that that 3 has a 40% probability of going on, which is a reasonable number. What are the odds that you miss two of these in a row? The answer is 36%. Most people would guess that the probability should be much lower. For comparison, the probability that you make two such 3s in a row is only 16%. 48% of the time you're going to make one and miss one. So, 36% of the time you will miss two open 3s in a row, an event that will lead many to cry out that the game is rigged. Now, let's say that your opponent will take a bad contested 3 in between your two shots and it goes in. Let us stipulate that that 3 goes in 25% of the time. Now, in the long run, the guy taking 40% shots will win, but it might just be that this is the one time where you miss both of your shots while your opponent makes his. The probability of this chain of events (you miss a good shot, he makes a bad shot, you miss another good shot) is 9%. Let us call this sequence of events WOAT. 9%! This is exactly the kind of thing that people will make angry forum posts and videos about, yet it is not terribly uncommon. We will probably have events like this (we miss a good shot, they make a bad one, we miss another good shot) many time in any given game against a bad opponent. If we have 10 such chains of events in a single game, chances are that the 9% scenario we described will happen once a game. It might even happen more often in reality. Maybe we are playing very meticulously and get 40FGA in a given game, all of which are decent to good shots. Our opponent is a chucker, 20 of his 40 FGA are bad. In such an event, there will be an average of 2 WOAT sequences a game. The way our brain tends to remember bad instances like this and forget the good, 'normal', ones, this can quickly condition one to believe in comeback code, etc. The explanation that one game mode (MT) has comeback logic while another (PNO) doesn't is especially troublesome. Why should 2k have such code for one mode and not another? The more straightforward explanation is that the differences between the 2 modes is what causes this change in perception (many superstars and thus making more tough shots, thus decreasing the edge 'solid' play has over 'chucking'/more badges/lower difficulty setting).

The sim question is a seperate topic, correct.

Why should 2k have such code for one mode and not another?

Because 2k wants to make the access for newbies to MT as easy and less frustrating as possible.

[QNo]

Quote: Originally Posted by ChiliPalmer

Why should 2k have such code for one mode and not another? Because 2k wants to make the access for newbies to MT as easy and less frustrating as possible.

They already do that, exhibited by the lowered difficulty settings. So their MT specific comeback code isn't good enough to achieve what they want to achieve by itself, they also have to (or, coincidentally do) lower the difficulty settings on top of that? Not very believable.

[justlaze]

Quote: Originally Posted by ChiliPalmer

What you mean by 1 silver seed? It happens in every seed, but in the unrestricted seeds you can feel it the most. I can win with an all gold squad for 50k vs a good player with elite cards. I just need to drive with Wall or Westbrook through 3 defenders and get the foul or the bucket or both. Or pass the ball to Gasol in the post, pump fake and get the same result. Kids ger rewarded for doing the same moves over and over. And the scripted momentum decides who wins.

this is the reason why I'm done with RTTP and MyTeam partwise for now. I've listed my entire amethyst squad because I'm done with this cheese. you neither need insane cards nor any playbook to win, so why bother sniping, flipping cards, building up a team and learning plays???
Nevertheless, the things that bothered me started to stack from time to time and I just want to sum up what makes RTTP for me personally unenjoyable.

I) Bad plays get rewarded / drive or turbo to win

As already mentioned by a lot of you, this is the main reason why RTTP is a joke. There is absolutely no need for setting up plays if you have higher chances to score when driving to the basket. I basically just need DeAndre to give a screen and let Russel drive.

II) Momentum Swing

I am one of the believers of momentum swing even if there are discussions. I noticed it a lot of times when I was having a close game and I pulled away for lets say 10+. Then suddenly Curry drops the ball for no reason and turns it over, opponent is able to make impossible, contested shots while I won't hit wide open 3s with Pierce?! Things like that happen A LOT OF TIMES and I don't believe that this is just an imagination, if a lot of you recognize it aswell!

III) 0-0 (aaaaand it's gone)

I thought this got fixed but nope it still occurs from time to time
in higher seeds you can not afford these timeout losses. this is just terrifying.

IV) Playbook Bug

Another annoying thing is the playbook bug. You start the game and want to set up plays and then realize that this is some random playbook you've never seen.

V) Getting paired with players in higher seeds

This is obviously great for guys in Seed 1 or 2, but just a slap in the face for average players like me. Why do I get paired with people having Reward Mullin or Ewing? I don't care if I get beneficial sliders I just want to face people who are on my level.

Guess I'm just gonna hop into PlayNow and see if it's more enjoyable. Some of you said it's better playwise so I'm going to give it a try.


p.s. sorry in case of wrong spelling/grammar it's not my mother tongue

[QNo]

Quote: Originally Posted by ChiliPalmer

Just 3 examples. RTTP in a nutshell: http://youtu.be/4m3Bu8PSWiE http://youtu.be/JfGLeND-qAY http://youtu.be/dSYIsNJ5oOM

Clip 1: You don't take care of the ball twice, dribbling it right in front of John Wall, a great defender. You got lucky that it wasn't a turnover the first time. The right thing to do is to use your body to protect the ball from the defender, just like it is in real life.

Then he isolates with Wall, who just build up some momentum by getting a tipped ball and then a steal, against Harden, not a great defender. The animation is cheesy but happens all the time in RTTP, bad sliders.

Clip 2: He's not gonna make that shot a large percentage of the time. **** happens.

Clip 3. Again, lucky shot, bad sliders.


All of these will go in a certain percentage of the time. Cherrypicking the times they do and then using that to support the argument that there is comeback code is not a good way of making an argument at all.

[synistr]

Quote: Originally Posted by QNo

But 2k not being sim and 2k being scripted for certain players to win/comeback are two wholly separate claims. One is about programming not being great, the other about programming intentionally rigging the game for some reason. I used to be an elite professional poker player. I made lots of money from people because they don't understand randomness. How could they, our brain developed in a very different way. It takes years of training to overcome some of these instincts. I recommend Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Fools of Randomness for an introduction as to how all of us commonly attribute things to our own abilities that are but a product of randomness. Basketball and thus 2k is a game of very high variance. There is a reason playoff series are best of 7, not best of one. Variance trumps slight differences in skill in the short term (one or several games). But in the long-term, skill trumps variance. Think about the 2013 finals. If Ray Allen doesn't make the shot in game 6, the series is over and the Spurs take the title. That shot will miss more than half the time, statistically. But this time it went in, enabling the Heat to go on to a game 7 that they would eventually win. Even championships get decided on the narrowest of edges. The poker analogy I always give is that, on a given night, an amateur has like a 45-55 chance to come out on top of the best player of the world. That's how much random card distribution matters. But if they play every night for a year, the chances that the pro will be ahead are way above 99%. Now, I don't know what these probabiities in 2k are. So let us turn to an easier and simplified example instead. Imagine if you play a good possession and get an open corner 3 with a good shooter. Let's stipulate that that 3 has a 40% probability of going on, which is a reasonable number. What are the odds that you miss two of these in a row? The answer is 36%. Most people would guess that the probability should be much lower. For comparison, the probability that you make two such 3s in a row is only 16%. 48% of the time you're going to make one and miss one. So, 36% of the time you will miss two open 3s in a row, an event that will lead many to cry out that the game is rigged. Now, let's say that your opponent will take a bad contested 3 in between your two shots and it goes in. Let us stipulate that that 3 goes in 25% of the time. Now, in the long run, the guy taking 40% shots will win, but it might just be that this is the one time where you miss both of your shots while your opponent makes his. The probability of this chain of events (you miss a good shot, he makes a bad shot, you miss another good shot) is 9%. Let us call this sequence of events WOAT. 9%! This is exactly the kind of thing that people will make angry forum posts and videos about, yet it is not terribly uncommon. We will probably have events like this (we miss a good shot, they make a bad one, we miss another good shot) many time in any given game against a bad opponent. If we have 10 such chains of events in a single game, chances are that the 9% scenario we described will happen once a game. It might even happen more often in reality. Maybe we are playing very meticulously and get 40FGA in a given game, all of which are decent to good shots. Our opponent is a chucker, 20 of his 40 FGA are bad. In such an event, there will be an average of 2 WOAT sequences a game. The way our brain tends to remember bad instances like this and forget the good, 'normal', ones, this can quickly condition one to believe in comeback code, etc. The explanation that one game mode (MT) has comeback logic while another (PNO) doesn't is especially troublesome. Why should 2k have such code for one mode and not another? The more straightforward explanation is that the differences between the 2 modes is what causes this change in perception (many superstars and thus making more tough shots, thus decreasing the edge 'solid' play has over 'chucking'/more badges/lower difficulty setting).

your breakdown was good and those percentages look right. but you are speaking of those numbers on a single game basis? so you believe they have great chance on repeating themselves game after game after game? the notion of something being scripted does not pertain to variance or randomness. its the antithesis of it. these events are highly predictable. whether you believe in comebacking or not....how do you explain how we are able to predict what will happen and when? that has nothing to do with remembering bad moments more than remember good. Like you said, the Ray Allen shot will miss more times then not. That shot is made at least twice EVERY GAME in RTTP if the conditions are as we speak of. there is nothing random about it.