Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

[Bard]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

The majority of people on these threads are just looking for helpful advice, or a different perspective. If there are 2-3 people who pop in (Out of 146 posts) to brag about ripping off the worst CPU trade engine in sports gaming, so be it. Probably more cordial to say "Hey dude, that doesn't work, but this might...".



Definitely appreciate the time and effort that you and Gamecockslaw17 have put into the thread over the years, but I don't really see the point in popping in to essentially say "This is dumb now".



Cheers.

The last part is another factor as to why I stay away from these threads. Where did I or in that Game quote say that this is dumb?

This has been my favorite thread for years on this forum, and that's why I have typically created it every year. However, the last year-two years of this just hasn't been the same. Maybe I'm burnt out? Who knows.

I come in to check in and see how everything is going. This thread looks just fine this year. I just read something I agreed with, and commented on it. Nothing more, nothing less.

Cheers.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

[Bard]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I do want to put this in here.

I do tend to help with trades every now and again this year, just not do full blown burn outs like trying to help every trade I see, lol.

Here is the formula we have been using for year's past. It isn't the best as it has been pointed out, but it does help get a good idea to get the ball rolling into making a deal.

Spoiler

Player Calculation Example:

You're going to have to find the WAR for the player. We use Baseball Reference as they tend to have the most realistic WAR assessments. We will use Robinson Chirinos of the Texas Rangers for this example.

Link: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...hiriro01.shtml

DISTINGUISHING AVERAGE WAR

For Position Players, we're going to scroll down to Player Value Batting. You can see that below but keep reading. We need to identify the player's WAR for the past three years. We use a 6 x 3 x 1 method of determining a fair value for the player. Thus we're going to take the 2017 WAR and multiply it by 6. Then we will find the 2016 WAR and multiply it by 3. The 2015 WAR is simply the remaining 10% so there is no need to multiply it. See below.



Okay now we have our WARS. We're going to discern our average WAR for Chirinos now.

2017 WAR: 2.7 x 6 = 16.2
2016 WAR: 0.9 x 3 = 2.7
2015 WAR: 1.8 x 1 = 1.8

Add: 16.2+2.7+1.8= 20.7
Now keep in mind, we were using percentages of each season to create our basis so now we need to divide by 10 (6+3+1). That brings Chirinos to a 2.1 WAR (rounding up from 2.07).

PINPOINTING TOTAL VALUE

Now we're going to create our total value from that WAR number. We've decided among ourselves, using Professional opinions, that the average worth for 1 WAR is 9 Million. So we're going to multiply Chirinos' WAR by 9 and then by the amount of years remaining on his contract. To do that, we're going to scroll down near the bottom where it says Salaries. See below.



Okay, now we know how many years Chirinos has remaining in his contract and how much he will be paid for those years. Lets do our math.

2.1(Player WAR) x 9 (WAR Worth) x 2 (Contracted Years Remaining) = 37.8M Total Value

There we see that Chirinos is worth a total value of 37.8M. But now we have to identify what his surplus value is.

FINALIZING SURPLUS VALUE

Surplus is identified using this method:

Total Value - Remaining Salary = Surplus Value

Using the image above, we can see that Chirinos has approximately $4.63M owed to him in his current contract. We can do our final piece of math now.

37.8 (Total Value) - 4.63 (Remaining Salary) = 33.17M Surplus

We will go ahead and round that fourth digit up or down. As it is a 7, we'll round up to a final 33.2M Surplus.



Prospect value:

Top 100 Hitter:
1-10: $95 surplus
11-25: $75 surplus
26-50: $51 surplus
51-75: $33 surplus
76-100: $18 surplus

Top 100 Pitcher:
1-10: $87 surplus
11-25: $55 surplus
26-50: $44 surplus
51-75: $27 surplus
76-100: $13 surplus



[B]Trade Machine[\b]
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

[Beastboy2335]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

This one is for fellow Phillies fans/chise guys. By now, it's apparent that the lack of organizational depth in the high minors is killing this team. The roster is so top-heavy with Harper, Realmuto, Hoskins, Nola, and Wheeler, but the remainder of the 40-man is painfully weak.

I don't foresee this team having the depth to survive the attrition of a modern MLB season. The roster is so inflexible that there's essentially no tradeable assets.

So...how do you infuse talent and depth into the system?

Trade Nola.

Here's one I kicked around with the Tribe:

SP Zach Plesac
3B Nolan Jones
OF Daniel Johnson
SP/RP Juan Carlos Mejia
RP Robert Broom

I would also deal from our catching stockpile (likely Rafael Marchan to go with Nola).

Jones is Cleveland's top prospect, but he's blocked by Jose Ramirez. With the DH almost certainly coming to the NL in 2022, you can plug Jones in as an above-average defender at third, slide Bohm across the diamond (he's awful at third), and move Hoskins into a primary DH role. Plesac would slot it as an innings-eating mid-rotation starter. Johnson might be only a 4th outfielder, but he's a plus defender and the Phillies desperately need defensive upgrades all over the diamond. Mejia is an up-and-down guy who could spot start or eat bulk innings. Broom is a boom/bust single inning relief arm who lit Double A on fire in 2019 as a 23-year old, but he's barely inside the Cleveland top 40 (per FanGraphs).

A more realistic team to make a blockbuster like this would be the Yankees (depending on their Pitcher's success in your chise), they have been attempting to shore up the rotation for years and may be willing to deal from their offense to get it done. My proposal similar to yours?
Phillies Get:
SS (Transition to DH/3B) Gleybar Torres - Nolan Jones Role (if transition to 3B is better than bad D at SS)/May Jump to DH
SP Jordan Montgomery- Innings Eater
SP Clarke Schmidt- Upside Spot Starter/Reliever
OF Clint Frazier - Extra Outfielder
Yanks Get
SP Aaron Nola
2B/SS Scott Kingery
C Rafael Marchan

This may have its own can of worms and people may oppose, but I believe this is better than dealing with a financially conscious team.

[Bgrd1080]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Laureano is the second most valuable player on the A's. The chances of them trading him are extremely, EXTREMELY low, especially considering how many years of cheap control they have over him. I doubt that them being only 4 games out would have any effect on that.

*IF* they ever considered moving him, I'd assume you'd have to at least hit the high water mark for his value ($74.2 mil). Royce Lewis, Jarren Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Misael Urbina would get you there.

IMO, that's a ton to give up for a guy who's career year was a 3.1 WAR season, but again, there's really no reason for the A's to move him.

Any suggestions on who to look at, I was using my heart instead of my head lol. I need more speed and defense in the outfield or at 3B when Donaldson retires or drops in ovr as he still has 4 years left.... I have enough bats so speed and defense is what I'd prefer.

[jfen31]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

A more realistic team to make a blockbuster like this would be the Yankees (depending on their Pitcher's success in your chise), they have been attempting to shore up the rotation for years and may be willing to deal from their offense to get it done. My proposal similar to yours?
Phillies Get:
SS (Transition to DH/3B) Gleybar Torres - Nolan Jones Role (if transition to 3B is better than bad D at SS)/May Jump to DH
SP Jordan Montgomery- Innings Eater
SP Clarke Schmidt- Upside Spot Starter/Reliever
OF Clint Frazier - Extra Outfielder
Yanks Get
SP Aaron Nola
2B/SS Scott Kingery
C Rafael Marchan

This may have its own can of worms and people may oppose, but I believe this is better than dealing with a financially conscious team.

Yep, I've thought about the Yanks as well. The Phillies are in a tough spot because the fan base isn't going to tolerate another full-blown rebuild with a slew of 18-year old rookie ball acquisitions. The trade targets have to be high minors/current major leaguers.

Other possibility is the Dodgers.

Say...

2B Gavin Lux
2B/SS Jacob Amaya
CF Jeren Kendall
SP Tony Gonsolin
SP/RP Caleb Ferguson

For Nola/Kingery/Marchan.

I'm torn on Lux, but the ceiling is so tantalizing. Amaya is the best infield defender in the Dodgers' system and an on-base machine. If paired with enough offense around him, he could be an everyday player at either middle infield spot by next season. Kendall is a defensive wiz in CF who will almost certainly never hit enough.

Gonsolin's homer issues might suck at CBP, but he's clearly better than half of the dudes currently in MLB rotations. Ferguson is a multi-inning/bulk guy for a Phils' team that (as you said with Montgomery) just desperately needs to fill innings.

Dodgers love positional versatility and probably wouldn't hate having Kingery and his horrible contract around for the next few years.

[Friar Fanatic]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I do want to put this in here.

I do tend to help with trades every now and again this year, just not do full blown burn outs like trying to help every trade I see, lol.

Here is the formula we have been using for year's past. It isn't the best as it has been pointed out, but it does help get a good idea to get the ball rolling into making a deal.

Spoiler

Player Calculation Example:

You're going to have to find the WAR for the player. We use Baseball Reference as they tend to have the most realistic WAR assessments. We will use Robinson Chirinos of the Texas Rangers for this example.

Link: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...hiriro01.shtml

DISTINGUISHING AVERAGE WAR

For Position Players, we're going to scroll down to Player Value Batting. You can see that below but keep reading. We need to identify the player's WAR for the past three years. We use a 6 x 3 x 1 method of determining a fair value for the player. Thus we're going to take the 2017 WAR and multiply it by 6. Then we will find the 2016 WAR and multiply it by 3. The 2015 WAR is simply the remaining 10% so there is no need to multiply it. See below.



Okay now we have our WARS. We're going to discern our average WAR for Chirinos now.

2017 WAR: 2.7 x 6 = 16.2
2016 WAR: 0.9 x 3 = 2.7
2015 WAR: 1.8 x 1 = 1.8

Add: 16.2+2.7+1.8= 20.7
Now keep in mind, we were using percentages of each season to create our basis so now we need to divide by 10 (6+3+1). That brings Chirinos to a 2.1 WAR (rounding up from 2.07).

PINPOINTING TOTAL VALUE

Now we're going to create our total value from that WAR number. We've decided among ourselves, using Professional opinions, that the average worth for 1 WAR is 9 Million. So we're going to multiply Chirinos' WAR by 9 and then by the amount of years remaining on his contract. To do that, we're going to scroll down near the bottom where it says Salaries. See below.



Okay, now we know how many years Chirinos has remaining in his contract and how much he will be paid for those years. Lets do our math.

2.1(Player WAR) x 9 (WAR Worth) x 2 (Contracted Years Remaining) = 37.8M Total Value

There we see that Chirinos is worth a total value of 37.8M. But now we have to identify what his surplus value is.

FINALIZING SURPLUS VALUE

Surplus is identified using this method:

Total Value - Remaining Salary = Surplus Value

Using the image above, we can see that Chirinos has approximately $4.63M owed to him in his current contract. We can do our final piece of math now.

37.8 (Total Value) - 4.63 (Remaining Salary) = 33.17M Surplus

We will go ahead and round that fourth digit up or down. As it is a 7, we'll round up to a final 33.2M Surplus.



Prospect value:

Top 100 Hitter:
1-10: $95 surplus
11-25: $75 surplus
26-50: $51 surplus
51-75: $33 surplus
76-100: $18 surplus

Top 100 Pitcher:
1-10: $87 surplus
11-25: $55 surplus
26-50: $44 surplus
51-75: $27 surplus
76-100: $13 surplus



[B]Trade Machine[\b]
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

This is super helpful, it would be amazing if MLB The Show allowed for people to hide player ratings and ovr/pot to some respect like OOTP baseball. This would allow for a full stat immersion which would be great

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I do want to put this in here.

I do tend to help with trades every now and again this year, just not do full blown burn outs like trying to help every trade I see, lol.

Here is the formula we have been using for year's past. It isn't the best as it has been pointed out, but it does help get a good idea to get the ball rolling into making a deal.

Spoiler

Player Calculation Example:

You're going to have to find the WAR for the player. We use Baseball Reference as they tend to have the most realistic WAR assessments. We will use Robinson Chirinos of the Texas Rangers for this example.

Link: https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...hiriro01.shtml

DISTINGUISHING AVERAGE WAR

For Position Players, we're going to scroll down to Player Value Batting. You can see that below but keep reading. We need to identify the player's WAR for the past three years. We use a 6 x 3 x 1 method of determining a fair value for the player. Thus we're going to take the 2017 WAR and multiply it by 6. Then we will find the 2016 WAR and multiply it by 3. The 2015 WAR is simply the remaining 10% so there is no need to multiply it. See below.



Okay now we have our WARS. We're going to discern our average WAR for Chirinos now.

2017 WAR: 2.7 x 6 = 16.2
2016 WAR: 0.9 x 3 = 2.7
2015 WAR: 1.8 x 1 = 1.8

Add: 16.2+2.7+1.8= 20.7
Now keep in mind, we were using percentages of each season to create our basis so now we need to divide by 10 (6+3+1). That brings Chirinos to a 2.1 WAR (rounding up from 2.07).

PINPOINTING TOTAL VALUE

Now we're going to create our total value from that WAR number. We've decided among ourselves, using Professional opinions, that the average worth for 1 WAR is 9 Million. So we're going to multiply Chirinos' WAR by 9 and then by the amount of years remaining on his contract. To do that, we're going to scroll down near the bottom where it says Salaries. See below.



Okay, now we know how many years Chirinos has remaining in his contract and how much he will be paid for those years. Lets do our math.

2.1(Player WAR) x 9 (WAR Worth) x 2 (Contracted Years Remaining) = 37.8M Total Value

There we see that Chirinos is worth a total value of 37.8M. But now we have to identify what his surplus value is.

FINALIZING SURPLUS VALUE

Surplus is identified using this method:

Total Value - Remaining Salary = Surplus Value

Using the image above, we can see that Chirinos has approximately $4.63M owed to him in his current contract. We can do our final piece of math now.

37.8 (Total Value) - 4.63 (Remaining Salary) = 33.17M Surplus

We will go ahead and round that fourth digit up or down. As it is a 7, we'll round up to a final 33.2M Surplus.



Prospect value:

Top 100 Hitter:
1-10: $95 surplus
11-25: $75 surplus
26-50: $51 surplus
51-75: $33 surplus
76-100: $18 surplus

Top 100 Pitcher:
1-10: $87 surplus
11-25: $55 surplus
26-50: $44 surplus
51-75: $27 surplus
76-100: $13 surplus



[B]Trade Machine[\b]
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

This is very useful. Cheers!

Does the game provided WAR statistics? If so, I assume we could use these calculations to determine player value in future Franchise seasons?

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

The last part is another factor as to why I stay away from these threads. Where did I or in that Game quote say that this is dumb?

This has been my favorite thread for years on this forum, and that's why I have typically created it every year. However, the last year-two years of this just hasn't been the same. Maybe I'm burnt out? Who knows.

I come in to check in and see how everything is going. This thread looks just fine this year. I just read something I agreed with, and commented on it. Nothing more, nothing less.

Cheers.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

My apologies. I took the "This is why I don't come here" the wrong way.

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Yep, I've thought about the Yanks as well. The Phillies are in a tough spot because the fan base isn't going to tolerate another full-blown rebuild with a slew of 18-year old rookie ball acquisitions. The trade targets have to be high minors/current major leaguers.

Other possibility is the Dodgers.

Say...

2B Gavin Lux
2B/SS Jacob Amaya
CF Jeren Kendall
SP Tony Gonsolin
SP/RP Caleb Ferguson

For Nola/Kingery/Marchan.

I'm torn on Lux, but the ceiling is so tantalizing. Amaya is the best infield defender in the Dodgers' system and an on-base machine. If paired with enough offense around him, he could be an everyday player at either middle infield spot by next season. Kendall is a defensive wiz in CF who will almost certainly never hit enough.

Gonsolin's homer issues might suck at CBP, but he's clearly better than half of the dudes currently in MLB rotations. Ferguson is a multi-inning/bulk guy for a Phils' team that (as you said with Montgomery) just desperately needs to fill innings.

Dodgers love positional versatility and probably wouldn't hate having Kingery and his horrible contract around for the next few years.

Phillies send: 110.8 mil
Dodgers send: 88.10.

I think there's a couple of things to look at here-The Phillies don't really have issues spending money. To me, if they're going to sell off their most valuable player, I don't see them discounting his value by tying him to a bad contract just to shed Kingery. Assuming that they did, even if you take out Marchan (It'd be weird for the Phillies to send a prospect back in the first place, but whatever), you're still shy about $14 mil in surplus value going to the Phils. I feel like if you subbed out Gonsolin for May (Out for a year), you're on a much better track.

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

A more realistic team to make a blockbuster like this would be the Yankees (depending on their Pitcher's success in your chise), they have been attempting to shore up the rotation for years and may be willing to deal from their offense to get it done. My proposal similar to yours?
Phillies Get:
SS (Transition to DH/3B) Gleybar Torres - Nolan Jones Role (if transition to 3B is better than bad D at SS)/May Jump to DH
SP Jordan Montgomery- Innings Eater
SP Clarke Schmidt- Upside Spot Starter/Reliever
OF Clint Frazier - Extra Outfielder
Yanks Get
SP Aaron Nola
2B/SS Scott Kingery
C Rafael Marchan

This may have its own can of worms and people may oppose, but I believe this is better than dealing with a financially conscious team.

This is reasonably close value-wise. As I said above though, it seems very weird to me to see a team moving their most valuable piece (Nola), and discounting his value by attaching a bad contract (Kingery), then also throwing in a pretty solid prospect to boot.

I also find it weird that a team that is attrociously thin in CF wouldn't ask for your top prospect, who coincidentally is a CF. 3B is covered long term for the Phils (Bohm), SS is covered through 2022 (Didi), 2B is covered through 2022 (with an option for 2023-Segura). Not to say that Torres isn't a better bat than any of those 3, but with the amount invested in Didi/Segura, and Bohm being an up and coming bat, all combined with the fact that there isn't a DH in the NL (yet...), I just don't see it. Frazier showed last year that he is a solid bat, and started to show that he can play a bit in the corner OF positions (He's played 9 total innings in CF in his career), but again, they've got Cutch and Harper. I don't really see them moving around $35 mil to the bench.

Nola
Marchan

Gleyber
Domiguez
Deivi.

Or, take Marchan and Deivi out, and sub in Schmidt and Way/King.

[s0crates12]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Hi guys at the all star break as the Mariners. Started hot but tailed off, still in with a shot but honestly not feeling it. Got Tom Murphy (batting .275, 14 HRs, 38 RBIs), Ken Giles (pitching a 1.14 ERA, 23 saves in 24 attempts), Drew Steckenreider ( pitching a 2.71 ERA in 24 appearances) all on the block.
White sox interested in both Giles and Steckenreider, and have Collins (batting .235 with 5 HRs, .280 against righties though) on the block. Would also love Heuer who is pitching a 4.8 ERA in 31 appearances. What would I need to give up with Giles and Steckenreider to get these two back?

Will then move Murphy separate as Sox don’t make huge sense there.

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Hi guys at the all star break as the Mariners. Started hot but tailed off, still in with a shot but honestly not feeling it. Got Tom Murphy (batting .275, 14 HRs, 38 RBIs), Ken Giles (pitching a 1.14 ERA, 23 saves in 24 attempts), Drew Steckenreider ( pitching a 2.71 ERA in 24 appearances) all on the block.
White sox interested in both Giles and Steckenreider, and have Collins (batting .235 with 5 HRs, .280 against righties though) on the block. Would also love Heuer who is pitching a 4.8 ERA in 31 appearances. What would I need to give up with Giles and Steckenreider to get these two back?

Will then move Murphy separate as Sox don’t make huge sense there.

We'd have to leave the world of realism here...Giles is tough to place a value on, since IRL he's not playing until next season, which is why his contract is what it is. That being said, Heuer and Collins currently combine for $14.4 mil in SV, whereas Murph and Steck combine for $0.8 mil. 1.5 years of a super cheap Giles would be reasonably valuable if he's healthy...probably worth $10 mil or so.

Context here would probably help-Are the White Sox in the playoff race? Obviously Giles is an upgrade for them in the later innings, but would Steck even stay on their roster? I don't know...

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I'm approaching the trade deadline as the Reds and wouldn't mind making one final move to really take control of the NL Central.

The plan for next season is to move Moose across to 1B, and move Senzel down to 2B. Votto has been steadily regressing, and will need to play a lesser role during the final two years of his contract. He has also been injured, and Senzel has been incredible filling in at second. This will open up a vacant spot at CF, however.

I'd like to make a low-key move this season to see if I can't find an adequate starter at CF that can stay on next season. There's a chance it will just be a rental though, so I don't want to give too much up.

The Tigers are 37-49, 10 games back from the division leading Yankees, and 8.5 games back from the Rays in second. Hunter Renfroe, though not the fastest, would add another power bat to the lineup, and would be more than sufficient to replace Senzel's defence.

Would the Red Sox, in the situation described above, be interested in something like this:

Reds get:
LF: Hunter Renfroe - 29, 79, B // 1 yr, $3.1m // 0.1

Red Sox get:
SP: Wade Miley - 34, 66, C // 1 yr, $7.5m // -2.5
SP: Tony Santillan - 22, 64, C // 1 yr, $60k // 2.9

Would it make more sense to just send a lottery ticket back in return? Would a lottery ticket alone be enough to entice the Red Sox?

[dubplate]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Any suggestions on a fair package to bring Kris Bryant or Trevor Story to Seattle?

[Bard]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

..........