MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

[Bard]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Any suggestions on a fair package to bring Kris Bryant or Trevor Story to Seattle?

Kris Bryant is rough, by my method he is worth only around $0.5 million in surplus, but if we are being honest, I would just keep his $20 million surplus for a trade.

So that would be one top 100 prospect and two lotto tickets.

Cubs Receive:
Noelvi Marte
Tim Elliot
Tyler Keenan

Mariners Receive:
Kris Bryant


Let me know if you want to see a Trevor Story package!


Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

[dubplate]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Kris Bryant is rough, by my method he is worth only around $0.5 million in surplus, but if we are being honest, I would just keep his $20 million surplus for a trade.

So that would be one top 100 prospect and two lotto tickets.

Cubs Receive:
Noelvi Marte
Tim Elliot
Tyler Keenan

Mariners Receive:
Kris Bryant


Let me know if you want to see a Trevor Story package!


Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

Thanks. A Story package would be great as well, please.



Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Renfroe is worth roughly $18 million surplus.

Miley is worth roughly -$6 million surplus.

Prospect was a second rounder in 2015 which is a fine addition, but with Renfroe having three more years of service time I would actually say the Red Sox would have next to little interest in this type of deal.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

Baseball trade values has Renfroe listed at $0.1m.

Where did you get $18m from?

[Bard]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

..........

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

The values I posted up above.

Renfroe is only worth around $1 million on average I believe, then factor in years of service that he still has before free agency and how "cheap" he is likely to be.

Edit: to be clear. He is NOT fetching a top 100 prospect or anything. Probably just another prospect throw-in instead of Miley.

Sent from my SM-N970U using Tapatalk

Sorry I'm confused. You said that Renfroe has an $18m surplus value whereas Baseball Values says that his surplus value is only $0.1m.

How did you arrive at the $18m number and why is there such a discrepancy between your number and Baseball Value's? Years of service before free agency is factored into their equation is it not?

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I'm approaching the trade deadline as the Reds and wouldn't mind making one final move to really take control of the NL Central.

The plan for next season is to move Moose across to 1B, and move Senzel down to 2B. Votto has been steadily regressing, and will need to play a lesser role during the final two years of his contract. He has also been injured, and Senzel has been incredible filling in at second. This will open up a vacant spot at CF, however.

I'd like to make a low-key move this season to see if I can't find an adequate starter at CF that can stay on next season. There's a chance it will just be a rental though, so I don't want to give too much up.

The Tigers are 37-49, 10 games back from the division leading Yankees, and 8.5 games back from the Rays in second. Hunter Renfroe, though not the fastest, would add another power bat to the lineup, and would be more than sufficient to replace Senzel's defence.

Would the Red Sox, in the situation described above, be interested in something like this:

Reds get:
LF: Hunter Renfroe - 29, 79, B // 1 yr, $3.1m // 0.1

Red Sox get:
SP: Wade Miley - 34, 66, C // 1 yr, $7.5m // -2.5
SP: Tony Santillan - 22, 64, C // 1 yr, $60k // 2.9

Would it make more sense to just send a lottery ticket back in return? Would a lottery ticket alone be enough to entice the Red Sox?

Another possible target would be Teoscar Hernandez.

The Bluejays are currently in last place in the AL East, sitting at 34-54. They've had Hernandez on the trade block all season, and have Gurriel Jr. ahead of him on the depth chart.

Baseball Trade Values has him at 4.2, which is the exact value of the following package:

RHP - Santillan - 2.9
OF - Wainwright - 1.3

Does this seem realistic?

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Another possible target would be Teoscar Hernandez.

The Bluejays are currently in last place in the AL East, sitting at 34-54. They've had Hernandez on the trade block all season, and have Gurriel Jr. ahead of him on the depth chart.

Baseball Trade Values has him at 4.2, which is the exact value of the following package:

RHP - Santillan - 2.9
OF - Wainwright - 1.3

Does this seem realistic?

Teoscar is low because of the first month or so of the season. That's the one thing I'm not really into on that site...drastic changes based on a small sample. Through April, he was worth $32.5 mil. A slow-ish start, and missing a few weeks on the Covid list dumped him down the toilet for some reason.

Essentially, pre-Covid-list, he had 7 games played, and was hitting .207/.207/.310.

Since his return, he's raised his slash line up to .319/.373/.509 with 6 homers. I think it's safe to say that the Jays would want closer to that $32.5 mil surplus than the $4ish that they currently have listed, and that his value will jump back up on June 1st when they re-adjust their ratings again.

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Teoscar is low because of the first month or so of the season. That's the one thing I'm not really into on that site...drastic changes based on a small sample. Through April, he was worth $32.5 mil. A slow-ish start, and missing a few weeks on the Covid list dumped him down the toilet for some reason.

Essentially, pre-Covid-list, he had 7 games played, and was hitting .207/.207/.310.

Since his return, he's raised his slash line up to .319/.373/.509 with 6 homers. I think it's safe to say that the Jays would want closer to that $32.5 mil surplus than the $4ish that they currently have listed, and that his value will jump back up on June 1st when they re-adjust their ratings again.

Fair enough.

The site does seem to be very hit and miss. They have a number of players values very low who you'd expect to be much higher.

[bryanm1982]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

So the site re-evaluates the players the first of each month?

It is too bad they don't show the current and opening day values. So in July, a player with an expiring contract will be lower because there are only 2 months left of the season. But someone here might be just starting their season.

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Fair enough.

The site does seem to be very hit and miss. They have a number of players values very low who you'd expect to be much higher.

I don't find it to be too far off typically. The only reason why I mentioned Teoscar is the fact that I'm a Jays fan, and know that he's been raking over the past month or so. Low value guys on there are typically:

-Guys with large contracts. Assuming 1 WAR is equal to $8 million (That's what it was a couple of years ago...it's probably higher now), some of those $20+ million contract guys will just never put up the value that it'd take to make them super valuable. Arenado is a good example. The value that came back in that trade (Which shocked everyone) was obviously not very good, but if you take the name out of it, and look at it from a pure-numbers perspective, sending cash to St Louis was literally the only way to get any sort of value out of that deal. Stanton is in the same boat.

-Prospects who struggle early in their career. We (fans as a whole) typically overate our prospects, thinking that every one of them is going to be the next GOAT. The reality is that very few become much more than replacement level players.

So the site re-evaluates the players the first of each month?

It is too bad they don't show the current and opening day values. So in July, a player with an expiring contract will be lower because there are only 2 months left of the season. But someone here might be just starting their season.

Yeah, they do a re-rate multiple times throughout the season. The system isn't really meant for video game trades, and is meant more for actual baseball.

I don't know that your example is really true though...Kris Bryant came out of the offseason with a $2.5 mil SV, and is now over $12. They take in to account the likelihood of a qualifying offer, which, if declined, would have a draft pick coming back to the team, plus how the player is playing IRL.

If you're looking to go back and see what a players value was, you can always use the "trade board", and search for the player. All the trade dates are listed, so if you're looking to go back a couple of months, you can just search back far enough and you'll find something.

[bryanm1982]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I don't find it to be too far off typically. The only reason why I mentioned Teoscar is the fact that I'm a Jays fan, and know that he's been raking over the past month or so. Low value guys on there are typically:

-Guys with large contracts. Assuming 1 WAR is equal to $8 million (That's what it was a couple of years ago...it's probably higher now), some of those $20+ million contract guys will just never put up the value that it'd take to make them super valuable. Arenado is a good example. The value that came back in that trade (Which shocked everyone) was obviously not very good, but if you take the name out of it, and look at it from a pure-numbers perspective, sending cash to St Louis was literally the only way to get any sort of value out of that deal. Stanton is in the same boat.

-Prospects who struggle early in their career. We (fans as a whole) typically overate our prospects, thinking that every one of them is going to be the next GOAT. The reality is that very few become much more than replacement level players.



Yeah, they do a re-rate multiple times throughout the season. The system isn't really meant for video game trades, and is meant more for actual baseball.

I don't know that your example is really true though...Kris Bryant came out of the offseason with a $2.5 mil SV, and is now over $12. They take in to account the likelihood of a qualifying offer, which, if declined, would have a draft pick coming back to the team, plus how the player is playing IRL.

If you're looking to go back and see what a players value was, you can always use the "trade board", and search for the player. All the trade dates are listed, so if you're looking to go back a couple of months, you can just search back far enough and you'll find something.

Thanks. That is good to know.

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

I don't find it to be too far off typically. The only reason why I mentioned Teoscar is the fact that I'm a Jays fan, and know that he's been raking over the past month or so.

Any idea about Hunter Renfroe's value? He was listed at below 1 when I last looked but another poster seemed to think that he was worth $18m. That's a huge difference.

Another one is Eddie Rosario of the Indians. He's about to hit FA so should be much cheaper. He's listed at exactly 0.

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

Any idea about Hunter Renfroe's value? He was listed at below 1 when I last looked but another poster seemed to think that he was worth $18m. That's a huge difference.

Another one is Eddie Rosario of the Indians. He's about to hit FA so should be much cheaper. He's listed at exactly 0.

When I look at the super small values, I ask myself a few questions:
-Is it because of the contract?
-Is it because of the players output?
-Does the team have any reason to trade the player?

With Renfroe, an $18 mil surplus would have him worth a solid prospect, plus at least one more. Why would someone give up something for a slightly above replacement level player who has been poor defensively, and rather mediocre offensively (Aside from a bit of pop?). The Rays got rid of him for nothing. He's more likely a non-tender candidate than anything else at this point. Trade him for a change of scenery guy or lotto propsect, but nothing more.

Rosario is a very similar player. Low average, low OBP, not-so-good defensively...really, the only season that he put up solid value was when he hit 32 homers...he still only ended up with a .300 OBP. Same deal...if the Twins are out of it, given them a lotto prospect.

[Mackrel829]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

When I look at the super small values, I ask myself a few questions:
-Is it because of the contract?
-Is it because of the players output?
-Does the team have any reason to trade the player?

With Renfroe, an $18 mil surplus would have him worth a solid prospect, plus at least one more. Why would someone give up something for a slightly above replacement level player who has been poor defensively, and rather mediocre offensively (Aside from a bit of pop?). The Rays got rid of him for nothing. He's more likely a non-tender candidate than anything else at this point. Trade him for a change of scenery guy or lotto propsect, but nothing more.

Rosario is a very similar player. Low average, low OBP, not-so-good defensively...really, the only season that he put up solid value was when he hit 32 homers...he still only ended up with a .300 OBP. Same deal...if the Twins are out of it, given them a lotto prospect.

The trade I posted had the Red Sox taking on the final year of Wade Miley's $7.5m deal along with Tony Santillan. Does this seem reasonable to you?

[kinsmen7]

Re: MLB The Show Trade Discussion Thread

The trade I posted had the Red Sox taking on the final year of Wade Miley's $7.5m deal along with Tony Santillan. Does this seem reasonable to you?

I don't hate it if you're intent on shedding Miley's salary. I don't know where the Red Sox are with regards to the luxury tax, but I could definitely see them taking a prospect in exchange for eating money. Similar to the Jays eating Aoki to get Teoscar a few years back.