2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

[lonewolf371]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Disagree. Both have been awful this year at the plate, and Hanigan is so much better behind the plate.

Hanigan has been another level of awful at the plate.

[SlimKibbles]

Hanigan has been another level of awful at the plate.

That's been rather stunning to me. I wonder how healthy he is. He's always been a solid hitter who's gotten on base consistently. Disappointing but could be something wrong with him.


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[jasontoddwhitt]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

We have lost 5 of the past 6 series.

Yeah, this team is playing horrible right now.

[HustlinOwl]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

We have lost 5 of the past 6 series.

Yeah, this team is playing horrible right now.

do they pursue Soriano???

[jasontoddwhitt]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

do they pursue Soriano???

I doubt it, unless the Cubs fork over a lot of cash. They need a corner outfielder. The pipe dream is Stanton, but maybe they could also go after Alex Rios?

I don't understand for the life of me why Dusty refuses to bat Votto and Bruce back-to-back. It's asinine to not hit your best four hitters 1-4 in the lineup....

1. Choo
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Bruce

[redsrule]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I'd flip flop that honestly. Choo-Votto-Phillips-Bruce. They need someone other than those 4 to step up though bad.

[Son of Sam99]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I'd flip flop that honestly. Choo-Votto-Phillips-Bruce. They need someone other than those 4 to step up though bad.

Personally I cant agree with hitting Votto anything but third so i'd have to agree with Choo- Phillips- Votto- Bruce.

The problem with that is you'd be moving the 3rd best RBI producer in the NL. Now Phillips has done that mostly with singles & doubles knocking in Choo & Votto and his OBP is .319 so in theory he could be setting the table for Votto and Bruce to knock him in.

Lets be real though... THE PROBLEM IS ZACH COZART IN THE 2ND SPOT!!! And Dusty has even come out and said hes going to continue to put Cozart there.

Redsrule is right on the money though, no mater who it is someone else needs to step up. The batting order is starting to look like last year where nearly 2/3rds of the lineups was a black hole in avg & OBP

[TheShizNo1]

Wasn't BP batting second at the beginning of the season?

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[Motown]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Personally I cant agree with hitting Votto anything but third so i'd have to agree with Choo- Phillips- Votto- Bruce.

The problem with that is you'd be moving the 3rd best RBI producer in the NL. Now Phillips has done that mostly with singles & doubles knocking in Choo & Votto and his OBP is .319 so in theory he could be setting the table for Votto and Bruce to knock him in.

Lets be real though... THE PROBLEM IS ZACH COZART IN THE 2ND SPOT!!! And Dusty has even come out and said hes going to continue to put Cozart there.

Redsrule is right on the money though, no mater who it is someone else needs to step up. The batting order is starting to look like last year where nearly 2/3rds of the lineups was a black hole in avg & OBP

If Ludwick was back...problem solved! But yeah, 2 hole is killin' us AND hitting w/ RISP...same s*** as last year.

[jasontoddwhitt]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Wasn't BP batting second at the beginning of the season?

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On Opening Day, yeah. And that was the plan.

But once Ludwick went down, they put Phillips in the cleanup spot. And yes, Phillips may be 3rd in the NL in RBI, but that's because he took advantage of earlier in the year when both Choo and Votto were getting on-base at ridiculous rates. Choo has cooled off a bit...Votto has as well (though he still is no mere mortal). After the hot May Phillips had, he's cooled off considerably.

Speaking of Phillips, I feel like we're going to regret that extension. Phillips is still a good player, but he's clearly lost a couple steps. Still makes great plays in the field, but then still makes those bone headed plays that make you scratch your head on the base paths. We're paying him like the potential 30/30 player he used to be. And when you're trying to find the money to lock up guys such as Homer Bailey and Mat Latos, do you really want to be paying a guy in his mid-30s the money we're going to pay him?

Granted I understand the reasoning. With Votto's extension and the investment we made in Latos as far as prospects, we were going all-in, so we might as well go all-in on the Phillips extension.

EDIT
And to pick up on our discussion of the lineup...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/zack-...s/#more-130738

Before yesterday’s game, Dusty Baker talked about his line-up choices, specifically his decision to stick with Zack Cozart in the #2 spot in the order despite his .261 on base percentage. From John Fay’s article:

“You’ve got to learn some kind of way,” Baker said. “Someday, he’s going to be an excellent second hitter. We’re teaching guys how to hit at the big league level. There’s a difference between swinging and hitting.”

The original plane was to hit Brandon Phillips second. He was moved to cleanup after Ryan Ludwick was hurt on Opening Day. Choo (7), Chris Heisey (7), Derrick Robinson (6), Cesar Izturis (5) and Xavier Paul (3) have hit second.

“You can’t hit everyone down in the order,” Baker said.

Baker has dismissed the idea of hitting Joey Votto second, so Cozart it is. Baker had Cozart in the his office early Thursday afternoon to talk hitting.

“He’s got to stay out of the air, No. 1,” Baker said. “There’s nothing up in the air but outs. He had it for a while. But this is the nature of the game. Nobody’s up all the time. He had dug himself a pretty big hole to start the season.

“He’s hit some balls hard and got nothing. In my mind, hitting the ball hard is not struggling.”

Cozart hit .246 with a .288 on-base last year.

“Every year’s different,” Baker said. “They call it sophomore jinx. I think it’s sophomore adjustment.

While there’s a decent case to be made for hitting Votto second, there are some disadvantages. Having Choo and Votto back to back would make it very easy for opposing managers to deploy their LH specialists in high leverage situations without forcing that pitcher to face any right-handed bats in order to get both. While the traditional mindset of what a #2 hitter should be is mostly foolish, there is some value in putting a right-handed hitter between Choo and Votto. And so, here’s my question; why isn’t Todd Frazier at least getting some consideration?

He’s not a high OBP guy either, but outside of Choo and Votto, the Reds don’t really have any high OBP guys. Relative to the rest of his teammates, Frazier kind of is a high OBP guy. He’s also right-handed, and has enough power to make lefty specialists pay if they come in to face Choo and try to stick around long enough to face Votto.

...

So far this year, Frazier has basically been Cozart with an extra 70 points of on base percentage. Cozart actually has 27 extra base hits to Frazier’s 26, so you can’t really argue that Frazier’s power would be wasted in the #2 spot while hitting Cozart there. In actuality, Frazier’s power might be getting wasted in the #6 spot, where he’s most often hit this year.

Here are the amount of baserunners each of the Reds first six hitters in the line-up have had when they came to the plate this year:

1. Choo, 173
2. Cozart, 241
3. Votto, 250
4. Phillips, 288
5. Bruce, 277
6. Frazier, 214

You might think having Frazier hitting 6th is useful to drive in the middle of the order guys and keep rallies going, but in Phillips and Bruce, the Reds already have two moderate-to-low OBP guys who drive in a large percentage of their baserunners and don’t really leave much for Frazier. Note the giant drop-off from Bruce to Frazier; this is the residue of hitting behind a guy with a .323 OBP who also has launched 18 home runs.

The only real advantage Cozart has over Frazier is in contact rate, which is one of the traditional methods of deciding who hits second. Managers have been putting high contact slap hitters in the #2 hole in the order for decades, as they liked the ability to put on a hit-and-run without fear of the batter swinging through the pitch and getting the runner thrown out. They also prefer to have a #2 hitter who can hit the ball to the right side to get the leadoff hitter from second to third and setup a sac fly for the #3 hitter; they call this “playing the game the right way”, even though it’s really making two outs and having a rally end with just one run scored.

But, here’s the thing: Cozart hasn’t even really been any better at this kind of situational hitting than Frazier has. Cozart has hit with a man on second and nobody out 24 times, and has moved that runner to third on 15 of those 24 opportunities, good for a 63% “success” rate. Frazier has had 19 opportunities to do the same, and has moved the runner to third 12 times. 12 out of 19 is — drumroll please — 63%.

What about the speed aspect? Some managers like having a distraction on the bases in front of their big hitters, hoping that the threat of a stolen base will lead to more fastballs or less concentration from the pitcher when facing a hitter who can make them pay. Well, Cozart has 141 opportunities to steal a base this year, and he hasn’t run once. Of the regulars, Cozart is actually the only Red who hasn’t attempted a steal this year; Frazier is 5 for 7, if you’re curious.

I know that Dusty Baker is never going to be a big fan of FanGraphs, or our way of thinking about baseball, but hitting Todd Frazier in the #2 spot instead of Zack Cozart isn’t that radical of a suggestion. You’re still using a right-handed hitter to break up the lefties. You’re still putting a guy near the top of the line-up who isn’t a primary run producer. He’s not slow, so he’s not going “clog the bases”. He draws walks, which Baker clearly sees as valuable from his leadoff hitter, since that is Shin-Soo Choo‘s primary skill.

If you want to point to Todd Frazier’s strikeout rate as a disqualifier, I’ll simply point out that the difference between Cozart’s 15% K% and Frazier’s 23% K% would add up to about 25 extra strikeouts over the remainder of the season, and that’s if you believe that Cozart won’t regress back to something closer to the 18% mark that he posted last year. Instead of striking 25 times, Cozart will instead make 25 in-play outs, some of which will result in a runner advancing and some of which will result in a double play. Cozart’s additional contact skills won’t actually add much value to the Reds.

But Frazier’s massive advantage in OBP would. Right now, the difference is 70 points. The ZIPS/Steamer forecasts project a 30 point advantage in Frazier’s favor of the rest of the season. Even of just half a season, that would add up to about 10 extra times on base for Frazier compared to Cozart. 10 extra times that Votto comes up with a man on, or that instead of having Choo at second with one out and first base open, now there are runners at first and second and they can’t pitch around the Reds first baseman.

In the grand scheme of things, this isn’t the end of the world. Batting order doesn’t make that big of a difference. The Reds can make the playoffs with Zack Cozart hitting second. But, really, for a team in the playoff race, they should be taking advantage of every opportunity they can find to improve their chances of winning, however small those improvements might be. I get that hitting Votto second is too radical of an idea for Baker, but hitting Frazier second isn’t quite as crazy sounding, and it would make them better too.

[Motown]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Dusty's 7/13 lineup: Heisey 7, Choo 8, Votto 3, Phillips 4, Bruce 9, Frazier 5, Cozart 6, Miller 2, Bailey RHP

[lonewolf371]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Ludwick should be back in August. Then we can go back to the Choo-Phillips-Votto-Ludwick-Bruce-Frazier-catcher-Cozart lineup that we were all dreaming up at the start of the season.

[redsrule]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I like either Robinson or Heisey hitting second when they are in the lineup honestly. Choo gets on base a lot and Robinson is very good at bunting.
I'll take splitting the series at Atlanta honestly, especially with the way the Reds have played.

[Son of Sam99]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

I like either Robinson or Heisey hitting second when they are in the lineup honestly. Choo gets on base a lot and Robinson is very good at bunting.
I'll take splitting the series at Atlanta honestly, especially with the way the Reds have played.

I agree with having Heisey or Robinson in the 2 hole. Unfortunately I doubt anything will change until Ludwick gets back. I heard recently he is swinging the bat and throwing the baseball around.

[Son of Sam99]

re: 2014 Cincinnati Reds Thread

Here are some thoughts I read on Lance McAlister's blog that are interesting and I think could potentially spark some debate as we pray for the team to come back hot.

Reds thoughts
From listener Jerry G.
"After considering John Erardi's column on trading Aroldis Chapman and seeing some former Reds in the All Star game, I started to think about the trades Walt has made since becoming GM and I had to ask myself a few questions?
1) How many players that Walt has traded are current All Stars and are considered potential All Stars versus the players we got in return?
2) Judging by the criteria of: current production since trade, long term outlook, health and longevity (number of potential years under Reds control); How many of these trades would you still make?
3) What could the Reds roster look like now if some of these trades would not have been made?
4) Has Walt built a team to contend consistently for a World Series title or a team that just has the potential to make the playoffs?
5) And finally, I realize that Walt has been a very good GM for the Reds and is well respected in the industry but which organization is the better off now? The Cardinals without Jocketty or the Reds with him? I believe they both are better but if we throw out ties, which team would you rather be now and in the near future?
It makes me wonder if he has lost his edge and if so at what point in his career? I'll reserve judgement for now but it would sure be nice to have Didi Gregorius playing SS and leading off, Edwin Encarnacion playing 3rd and batting cleanup and Travis Wood in the rotation.
And how about some of those free agent signings? Maybe the Cards were one step ahead of the Reds...again."