CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/23/21231377/florida-beaches-reopening-coronavirus-social-distancing

I was one of those who was screaming at Florida (and other states) for not closing the beaches, but I thought this was a pretty good contrarian case for why they should remain open.

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Definitely won't be me - I think the endpoints on a lot of this mess will be very unclear and will take a lot of time to unpack. And there will probably never be a definitive "proven right" or "proven wrong" opinion. But I agree we all want the same things.

I like Dr. Gottlieb (and for whatever it's worth, I thought he was a good FDA commissioner). I think he's a reasonable and level-headed guy. He states in that interview: "While mitigation didn't fail...it didn't work as well as we expected".

I suppose there are several ways to interpret or react to that statement, but at least one reasonable one is to say, if that approach didn't really work, why continue?

Well, I think that is clear. Mitigation needed to be more thorough in order to generate declines in new cases. The answer is to either increase mitigation efforts, or accept the daily death toll he mentions, 2000 a day, or find ways to help Americans isolate better.

I mean, that’s it. We don’t have a vaccine, and we don’t have a treatment. And on top of states not having 2 solid weeks of declining new cases, they also have nowhere near the testing capacity to make informed decisions going forward, and absolutely no effort to trace infections.

We are reopening without even the basics. Cases still increasing, health workers still lacking PPE, testing still hampered, and far too much spread to trace.

Seriously, it’s like we just gave up. There is nothing that signals it was time, or that states have the capability to safely open.

Mostly, it’s warm out and people are tired of it.

It’s so messed up, the way a virus is so invisible. I mean, I know Countryboy is good people, and he has a better understanding of how serious it is. But his view of opening up Indiana is exactly the problem that has been pointed out since March.

Humans are not capable of wrapping their heads around this challenge because the lag time between becoming contagious and showing symptoms is so long.

We flattened the curve, so we don’t see doubling of new cases every few days. That’s a good thing. But when we relax, we also won’t see the surge washing over us until we look up and we are suddenly getting overwhelmed, and no action will slow the tide for two weeks.

It’s the lily pad analogy. By time we notice the dramatic increases, it’s too late.

So Indiana looks and feels good. In two weeks it is going to be a night mate. They have about 20K now. I’ll give you a number. In two weeks, they will be at 60K, and on their way to 3K dead. I hope I’m wrong.





Those stats are what I’m using, along with the history of seeing it spread over and over in other countries and states.

So, would those numbers after two weeks be in line with reopening? How far under or more would be acceptable?

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

One of the other reasons for the stay-at-home orders was to help medical facilities gather more equipment to be able to handle higher spikes (more ventilators and beds, specifically). I think everyone knows that opening up society again will increase the spread of the virus. The hope is that the 2 months of stay-at-home orders has given the medical industry enough time to outfit itself to handle the inevitable increase.

I have no idea if that's happened or not.

Kushner coronavirus effort said to be hampered by inexperienced volunteers

...

The complaint, obtained by The Washington Post, was submitted by a volunteer who has since left the group and who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution from the administration. Key elements of the complaint were confirmed by six administration officials and one outside adviser to the effort, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

A spokeswoman for the oversight panel declined to comment.

The document alleges that the team responsible for PPE had little success in helping the government secure such equipment, in part because none of the team’s members had significant experience in health care, procurement or supply-chain operations. In addition, none of the volunteers had existing relationships with manufacturers or a clear understanding of customs requirements or Food and Drug Administration rules, according to the complaint and two senior administration officials.

“Americans are facing a crisis of tragic proportions and there is an urgent need for an effective, efficient and bold response,” reads the complaint, which was sent to the committee on April 8. “From my few weeks as a volunteer, I believe we are falling short. I am writing to alert my representatives of these challenges and to ask that they do everything possible to help front-line health-care workers and other Americans in need.”

Supply-chain volunteers were instructed to fast-track protective equipment leads from “VIPs,” including conservative journalists friendly to the White House, according to the complaint and one senior administration official.

“Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade, for example, called two people he knew in the administration to pass along a lead about protective equipment in an effort to be helpful, according to two people familiar with the outreach. Fox News Channel host Jeanine Pirro also repeatedly lobbied the administration for a specific New York hospital to receive a large quantity of masks, one of the people said.

Kilmeade and Pirro said they were not aware that their tips were being prioritized, a Fox News spokeswoman said.

The volunteer group tasked with securing protective equipment is part of a broader coronavirus team set up by Kushner that spans the White House, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Much of the effort is run out of office space at FEMA headquarters.

Kushner and other key administration officials praised the volunteers’ efforts, which they said have helped the administration’s virus response.

“The bottom line is that this program sourced tens of millions of masks and essential PPE in record time and Americans who needed ventilators received ventilators,” Kushner said in a statement. “These volunteers are true patriots.”

But some government officials have expressed alarm at the presence of the volunteers, saying that their role in the response is unclear and that they have needed guidance on basic questions.

Health experts said procuring personal protective equipment is a complex job that requires expertise in the different types of equipment hospitals need, experience dealing with manufacturers and an understanding of which types of masks, for instance, have FDA approval.

“That’s the danger — there may be decisions being made that are not fully informed and that’s going to lead to downstream effects on the response,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an infectious-disease physician. “The people that are volunteering, they are donating their time and we have to be grateful for that, but whoever is supervising them needs to match their skills with what the needs are.”

Even as the volunteer group struggled to procure protective equipment, about 30 percent of “key supplies,” including masks, in the national stockpile of emergency medical equipment went toward standing up a separate Kushner-led effort to establish drive-through testing sites nationwide, according to a March internal planning document obtained by The Post and confirmed by one current and one former administration official. Kushner had originally promised thousands of testing sites, but only 78 materialized; the stockpile was used to supply 44 of those over five to 10 days, the document said.

One White House official denied that a third of the stockpile went to Kushner’s initiative, but declined to provide details.

The team of volunteers focused on PPE had trouble developing manufacturer relationships and making inroads with brokers, in part because they were using personal email accounts, rather than official government email addresses, the House Oversight Committee complaint states. Three senior administration officials confirmed the volunteers’ use of personal email addresses.

In addition to the already challenging circumstances, the complaint also says that on some of the teams, “minimal attempts at social distancing are taken.”

Jordan Libowitz, a spokesman for Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, said that the volunteers should be classified as “special government employees” and that the arrangement raises myriad concerns.

“This is the problem with operating off the books,” he said. “We just don’t know if they’re following the law or not.”

The volunteers were told to preserve and share a copy of all of their official emails, to comply with the Federal Records Act, according to the volunteer and administration officials. But Libowitz said that “by using private email accounts, we have no assurances that their emails are being preserved. . . . This doesn’t prove anything nefarious is going on, but if something nefarious was going on, this is how they would do it.”

[JayhawkerStL]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...ial-distancing

I was one of those who was screaming at Florida (and other states) for not closing the beaches, but I thought this was a pretty good contrarian case for why they should remain open.

The problem is, it ignores reality. Are tourists going to stay away? Are residents going to stay separated? I’ve yet to see a beach opening actually do that.

What opening tourist attractions does is hammer the part time workers in convenience stores, grocery stores, gas stations, and all the things we do as part of an outing. That retail person that was seeing 20-30 customers a shift will now see hundreds, dramatically increasing their risk.

So, sure. If you open the beaches and no one outside the the immediate location comes, and the residents do not socialize, yes, it’s fine.

And then we will all act horrified when images and video confirm, despite to very common evidence otherwise, Floridians are just normal humans.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I think as social distancing begins to erode, there's gotta be some give-and-take here and opening up large, outdoor, open-space places like beaches seems like a good compromise, especially given what we know about outdoor transmission.

[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So has the idea of improving testing setting up a system of contact tracing just been forgotten about?


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[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So has the idea of improving testing setting up a system of contact tracing just been forgotten about?


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I know Wisconsin is hiring 200 extra contact tracers and so far there are 1000 applicants.

I think some states have forgotten about the 14 days straight of declining before moving forward in the three different stages. CB, not referring to Indy because Indy seems to be slowly turning on the valve.

I said this earlier, I hope some of this opening earlier(hair salons, barbers, nails etccc) doesn't bite back. Here's to hoping that we can move forward in a reasonable function.

[roadman]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

Hopefully, people will find that PBS is a neutral site.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/grim-new-projections-forecast-explosive-growth-in-covid-19-cases-deaths?fbclid=IwAR0z441e8tNRqLzzRaKDGycG4BLEVb1PjrAivPrqvak-7T_7_DwVncp_yxU

A interview with Laurie Garret, a Pulitzer wining journalist in science. She's basing her info on the new studies that are out and she isn't painting a pretty picture. Of course, it's just one person's opinion on the new studies, but she fears states along the Mississippi River valley, Prairie States, deep south and north to the Canadian border states will need more testing and possibly more restrictions.

Testing needs to be in nursing homes, veterans hospitals and, meat packing companies.

This has been my issue which I will drop below from the above q and a, I don't trust strangers. People will be tired of me bringing this up if they aren't already, lol, but this virus hasn't been about me, it's always been about others. And part of it is, and I'm sure this isn't any different than any of you, I was always taught by my parents to be considerate of others. Here it is:

And I think they're projecting that there will be generalization, that a typical — an infected meatpacker, for example, might then infect their family members, some of those family members may infect local storekeepers, and so on.

[dickey1331]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I live on an island where there hasn’t been a case or anyone tested in over 3 weeks. You can only get here by boat or plane and you’re required to quarantine for 14 days when you get here. I don’t understand why we are still locked down.


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[ProfessaPackMan]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...28256628973570
Yup

One thing I’ve noticed lately the same ones that are now optimistic are the same ones who were brushing this off as nothing to begin with.

[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

I know Wisconsin is hiring 200 extra contact tracers and so far there are 1000 applicants.

.

Gotcha.

Seemed like here we heard a lot about how it was necessary but then the entire focus has been in the declining case numbers and not the improvements in testing and contact tracing. It’s possible I’ve missed stuff though.

I don’t really know what to think anymore. It does kind of feel like we’re giving up. States are either opening things without having a criteria or not really following it.

That said I’m hopeful at least that the common sense actions people have been taking on their own, combined with summer will be at least close to as effective as what we’ve done so far



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[NYJets]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

My state finally closed schools for the rest of the year today.

On the plus side, my district did a "parade" with teachers and school staff decorating our cars and driving throughout the entire town waving and seeing kids. Honestly going into it I thought it was a cool idea maybe for some of the little kids but for my age group (middle) and older kind of lame, but it was actually really cool. So many kids and families out in their front yards, making signs. Good to see everyone from a distance.

[FlyingFinn]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So we opened up here in Florida yesterday, May 4th. In a total bogus move we are shutting down all the mobile testing sites in my area. It is an obvious move to keep the new cases count down. The only way to get tested now is to be admitted to the hospital. Our leaders are looking out for their political careers... not our safety.

[steelerfan]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

So we opened up here in Florida yesterday, May 4th. In a total bogus move we are shutting down all the mobile testing sites in my area. It is an obvious move to keep the new cases count down. The only way to get tested now is to be admitted to the hospital. Our leaders are looking out for their political careers... not our safety.

We (Texas) started opening on the 1st and last I saw we were 49th in testing. [emoji58]

[l3ulvl]

Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

One thing I’ve noticed lately the same ones that are now optimistic are the same ones who were brushing this off as nothing to begin with.

and because they didn't get affected by wave 1 they assume they won't get affected by wave 2

late edit that no one will notice: I just realized the comment was about specific individuals and not a vague generalization, I was responding to the latter by mistake