WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[The Jackal]

That is a pretty good point, I would've made a smarter vote to deflect attention from myself by now if I was a wolf. Stupidity ftw.

[MartinD]

That's a pain - had pretty much made my mind up to reveal my role (and what I had found out) if I had made it through night 5.

Sorry I couldn't provide any information for the group - was trying to 'slow play' the seer to get more information.

[hoopsguy]

That's a pain - had pretty much made my mind up to reveal my role (and what I had found out) if I had made it through night 5.

Sorry I couldn't provide any information for the group - was trying to 'slow play' the seer to get more information.

Should make for some interesting post-game conversation.

[Lathum]

I see your point hoops, but I could also have just stayed on Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

I see your point hoops, but I could also have just stayed on Saldana.

Yep, and I have no idea if that was better/worse for the village without knowing Saldana's faction.

Anyway, it isn't meant to be a "bad villager voting for a wolf today" lecture at all. I just don't know how to accurately put meaning on the late movement, that's all.

Going to bed, catch up with everyone in the morning.

[The Jackal]

Ok, so here's all I'm cleared to say and all I'm going to say about my role, you can ask followup questions but I don't think Ill be able to answer them.

There's actually someone who could vouch for me, but we're in a personal war, and I have no idea who it is. That's about all I'm willing to say, as it already might tip my role to someone, but if they are a villager and not a wolf they'll know I'm telling the truth.

[hoopsguy]

OK, new idea that I'll explore this morning when I finish my work commitments - who were the people who voted for Telle yesterday that did not vote for her when she had been in danger on earlier days?

I've got pretty good vote/unvote logs from each of the days so I'll look at those.

If anyone wants to chime in on this before I get the data up, I would love feedback on if this idea makes sense as a way to find a wolf. Obviously it is somewhat self-serving, since I never voted Telle (that I can recall) so I won't appear on this list. But I think that it makes for an interesting data point, at the very least.

[hoopsguy]

I may come back here later, but for now
UNVOTE THE JACKAL

[saldana]

couple things here...i believe the jackal about having a role that has no value for the village, and he has moved up my list quite a bit in a good way

i am a little dissapointed about 2 things....one, that i cast the tiebreaking vote on telle and people are still talking about me as a wolf-candidate.

meanwhile, lathum is touting the fact that he "put telle in the lead late", which was immediately undone by daddy torgo, who then made a late pile on switch when the question was no longer in doubt...i know lathum mentioned it right after the deadline, but the fact that it is being ignored in the ongoing analysis (and i have a ? after casting what proved to be the lynching vote) [/semi angry rant]

vote daddytorgo

[claphamsa]

And nobody will be allowed to date during it.
I prefer work hour deadliens :)

[claphamsa]

Date went well tho :D

Someone pm me the wolves!

[DaddyTorgo]

hey all

sorry - i fell asleep at 9pm last night and slept straight through till 7am this morning. didn't even make it onto the secondary laptop.

*going back to check the results*

[DaddyTorgo]

nice! we got the brutal.

sucks that we lost clap though.

[DaddyTorgo]

fuck - so we lost the seer and we didn't even get any type of report from Martin?

damnit

[DaddyTorgo]

i put a vote on clap to tie it up and always planned on moving late to telle to "seal the deal" because I wanted to try to get more info out of the runoff between the two of them. see if any wolves lept to defend clap or defend telle. i obviously wasn't about to say that when i voted for clap earlier.

i'm a villager. i had a role that helped the village. losing me now is not a big deal except that it will be one vote closer to endgame. I assume I'm okay to say that much based on what others have said about their hidden-roles.

[dubb93]

I need to get a vote out there incase things get busy at work and I'm unable to make it back before deadline.

VOTE CR

I'm not sure how much his day 1 vote for EF really helps, especially the way he fought FOR EF on day two. It is a feeling I have, nothing role based about this vote, I also think his clap votes look bad, especially the early one from yesterday.

[Autumn]

I have reason to believe what Jackal says, and it jibes with my earlier assumptions about his role. He's clearly got the worst voting record, but that shouldn't count for everything.

I think my next suspect is Chief. His one wolf vote came on day one when it didn't matter so much. Since then he has voted villager, with Saldana being an unknown on Day 3. He's lowest on my trust list at this point.

<b>UNVOTE THE JACKAL

VOTE CHIEF RUM</B>

[dubb93]

i put a vote on clap to tie it up and always planned on moving late to telle to "seal the deal" because I wanted to try to get more info out of the runoff between the two of them. see if any wolves lept to defend clap or defend telle. i obviously wasn't about to say that when i voted for clap earlier.


It is easy to re-write history after the fact. Bottom line you voted Clap to tie it up and then switched after it was obvious Telle was the lynch. My vote on Telle put her up three meaning no one could switch off Telle and onto Clap at the last second and force a tie, your vote on Telle accomplished little.

[hoopsguy]

I'll put this out there right now - I'm more confident of Chief not being a wolf than anyone in the game. I started to make this reference last night but stopped just short of doing so. I'll go quote the post where I was heading in that direction ...

[hoopsguy]

Lathum - ???
Hoops - ??? (well, I know)
Telle - wolf
Jackal - ???
Lerriuqs - sympathizer
Chief Rum - ???

So that leaves you looking at three names on the list.
Most villagers are probably weighing four names on that list.

I may come back to this point a little later on tomorrow.

The original quote is post #2723, which quoted an earlier post from Autumn laying out people who were in a bad spot on the Day 2 vote..

The "I may come back to this point a little later on tomorrow" was me stopping just short of saying "I'm only weighing two names on that list". Because I'm quite certain that Chief Rum is a villager. And I've been playing some games with trust lists for awhile now to disguise that fact.

[Autumn]

This is quite ugly but here is the voting list that I have, Hoops.


The Jackal 1 PurdueBrad 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Claphamsa

Abe 1 ntndeacon 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

PackerFanatic 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Telle 5 Telle

Hoopsguy 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

Lathum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Criticized 5 Telle Criticized

Poli 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Telle

Dubb93 1 Eaglefan 2 Eaglefan 3 Saldana 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Autumn 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Claphamsa

Chief Rum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

DaddyTorgo 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Saldana 1 dubb 2 Hoopsguy 3 Telle 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

[Autumn]

I'm going to have to think about what you're saying, Hoops, because it changes around a lot on my list.

[Autumn]

Here is my summary of the voting, simply going by who has voted for Wolves/Unknowns/Villagers.

5/0/0 Jackal, always voted villager
4/0/1 Abe, voted villager until day 5
3/1/1 Hoops, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
3/1/1 Chief, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
2/0/2 Lathum, wolf twice, villager twice
3/0/2 DaddtyT, 3 villager, 2 wolf
2/1/2 Saldana, 2 wolf, 1 unknown
2/1/2 Pass, 2 wolves, 1 unknown
2/0/3 Martin, wolf three times
2/0/3 Packer, voted wolf three times
1/1/3 Dubb, 3 wolf, 1 unknown
0/0/5 Poli, all villager

I put them in order of worst voting record to best, though obviously it doesn't take into account any nuances of hte vote.

[Autumn]

If you're not just making shit up, Hoops, that leads me to a very different set of suspects. I'm not sure I want to follow that line of thinking as I'm afraid you might be leading me astray. You're essentially suggesting that Telle was the only wolf (if I believe Jackal's suggestion of a role also) voting on Clap yesterday?

[hoopsguy]

I think Poli = all wolf

Autumn, if you are a good guy and your analysis from D2 that I've quoted can be trusted then there are only two more possible wolves on that list - Jackal and Lathum.

I would add that Saldana should still be considered from that day as well, but I'm about to start doing a deep dive on voting from each of the days.

[Lathum]

I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.

[Autumn]

Here is my summary of the voting, simply going by who has voted for Wolves/Unknowns/Villagers.

5/0/0 Jackal, always voted villager
4/0/1 Abe, voted villager until day 5
3/1/1 Hoops, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
3/1/1 Chief, 3 villager, 1 wolf, 1 unknown
2/0/2 Lathum, wolf twice, villager twice
3/0/2 DaddtyT, 3 villager, 2 wolf
2/1/2 Saldana, 2 wolf, 1 unknown
2/1/2 Pass, 2 wolves, 1 unknown
2/0/3 Martin, wolf three times
2/0/3 Packer, voted wolf three times
1/1/3 Dubb, 3 wolf, 1 unknown
0/0/5 Poli, all wolf votes

I put them in order of worst voting record to best, though obviously it doesn't take into account any nuances of hte vote.

Sorry, fixed.

[hoopsguy]

If you're not just making shit up, Hoops, that leads me to a very different set of suspects. I'm not sure I want to follow that line of thinking as I'm afraid you might be leading me astray. You're essentially suggesting that Telle was the only wolf (if I believe Jackal's suggestion of a role also) voting on Clap yesterday?

Well, from where I sit there was me (I know I'm a villager), Chief (I'm quite sure he is a villager), Telle (we know she is a wolf), you (I've been thinking villager all day), and Jackal.

So now do you see why I posted on the value of the Telle lynch to the wolves? Because I'm pretty sure that there were more wolves on Telle than there were on Clap. I'm just not sure if the wolves started the day there or moved there later.

[hoopsguy]

I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.

Yep, everyone should strongly consider anything I say and run it through their own BS detector.

I'm playing it as straight as I can right now but people get to make up their own mind if I'm being honest or just in total spin mode right now. That said, what is my gain right now as a wolf?

Am I protecting fellow wolf Chief Rum? If so, pick one of us to vote for to test that theory. I know how that will end up for the village, but the rest of the villagers don't so I'm sure they are weighing risks/rewards right now as they consider their moves for today.

Finally, Chief will be on at some point today. It should be interesting to hear his take on this. How would you expect him to react to this if he is a villager? If he is a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Well, from where I sit there was me (I know I'm a villager), Chief (I'm quite sure he is a villager), Telle (we know she is a wolf), you (I've been thinking villager all day), and Jackal.

So now do you see why I posted on the value of the Telle lynch to the wolves? Because I'm pretty sure that there were more wolves on Telle than there were on Clap. I'm just not sure if the wolves started the day there or moved there later.

This is also why I unvoted Jackal for now - because I think that yesterday was a day that the wolves wanted to get the seer out of the game, clean up their voting records, and got a not-totally-unexpected bonus when the brutal kill was the bodyguard.

So if they wanted to work on their voting records, then why wouldn't Jackal (of all people, with his miserable voting record) have been on that train?

[dubb93]

This is also why I unvoted Jackal for now - because I think that yesterday was a day that the wolves wanted to get the seer out of the game, clean up their voting records, and got a not-totally-unexpected bonus when the brutal kill was the bodyguard.

So if they wanted to work on their voting records, then why wouldn't Jackal (of all people, with his miserable voting record) have been on that train?

So are you looking at Abe? He voted villager until yesterday and there was nothing about BK's role to suggest he would have any clue about Abe. Almost like Abe pulled his "I trust Barkeep" out of a hat.

[Autumn]

For the moment I am following this new lead. I'm apt to switch back if my analysis changes, but if I'm right I feel very good about whee we're going.

<b>UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE ABE SARGENT</b>

[hoopsguy]

So are you looking at Abe? He voted villager until yesterday and there was nothing about BK's role to suggest he would have any clue about Abe. Almost like Abe pulled his "I trust Barkeep" out of a hat.

Yep, when I talked last night about "changes in trust lists" based on my crappy guess at seer Abe is a guy who moved down the list.

But I still don't know why the wolves kill BK on N2 if Abe is a wolf. And Abe is correct in pointing out that he does not tend to play a tricky wolf historically.

[dubb93]

Unvote CR

For the time being.

[Lathum]

I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"

[dubb93]

But I still don't know why the wolves kill BK on N2 if Abe is a wolf. And Abe is correct in pointing out that he does not tend to play a tricky wolf historically.

A wolf can't buy trust by saying he trusts a villager unless that villager has been proven to be a villager.

[Lathum]

A wolf can't buy trust by saying he trusts a villager unless that villager has been proven to be a villager.

yeah, but if I am a wolf I wait a few days before killing BK. I would assume after Abe's comment that by day 4 or so people would start looking their way as possible lynch candidates based on it.

I think Occam's razor says they assumed it was a lovers type role.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm going to go day-by-day with what I've got recorded for vote/unvote records. The next post will contain what I think were the most significant votes on this day.

Day 1:
205 - Poli votes Lathum (1-0)
210 - Lathum votes Poli (1-1)
240 - Poli unvotes Lathum (1-0)
242 - Lathum unvotes Poli (0-0)
244 - Dubb votes Saldana (1-0)
251 - EF votes PB (1-1)
252 - Poli votes Abe (1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe
253 - Lerriuqs votes Pass (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
272 - PB votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Hoops
273 - PB unvotes Hoops (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
284 - Pass votes Lerriuqs (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs
304 - Saldana votes Dubb (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb
323 - EF unvotes PB, votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
326 - Lathum votes Abe (2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
328 - Hoops votes EF (2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF
329 - Jackal votes PB (2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
333 - PF votes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
335 - Clap votes PF (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB/PF
341 - Pass unvotes Lerriuqs, votes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/EF/PB/Lerriuqs/PF
343 - PB votes EF (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/PF
347 - Pass unvotes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/PF/Hoops
357 - PF unvotes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/PF/Hoops
370 - Pass votes for NTN (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Hoops/PF/NTN
372 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes PB (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/NTN
374 - PF votes NTN (2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF
381 - EF unvotes PB, votes Lathum (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum
396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (4-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
420 - BK votes NTN (4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
425 - Abe votes NTN (4-4-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF/NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
452 - EF unvotes Lathum, votes PB (4-3-2-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over PB over Pass/Dubb/PF/Abe
455 - Autumn votes PB (4-3-3-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Pass/Dubb/PF/Abe
457 - Telle votes Abe (4-3-3-2-1-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Abe over Pass/Dubb/PF
530 - NTN votes PF (4-3-3-2-2-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
532 - Pass votes NTN (4-4-3-2-2-1-1) EF/NTN over PB over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
536 - PB unvotes EF, votes NTN (5-3-3-2-2-1-1) NTN over PB/EF over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
577 - Telle unvotes Abe, votes PB (5-4-3-2-1-1-1) NTN over PB over EF over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe
581 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (4-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle
595 - MartinD votes PB (5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle
603 - NTN unvotes PF, votes PB (6-4-3-1-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle/PF
604 - Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle (5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PF
605 - Chief votes EF (5-4-4-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN/EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PF
668 - Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle (5-4-4-3-1-1-1) PB over NTN/EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
669 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (5-5-4-2-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
679 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (5-4-4-3-1-1-1) PB over EF/NTN over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
699 - Alan votes NTN (5-5-4-3-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
701 - NTN unvotes PB, votes Telle (5-4-4-4-1-1-1) NTN over EF/PB/Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
707 - NTN unvotes Telle, votes EF (5-5-4-3-1-1-1) NTN/EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
711 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (6-5-4-2-1-1-1) NTN over EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
713 - EF unvotes PB, votes NTN (7-5-3-2-1-1) NTN over EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 Most Significant Votes:
#396 Lathum puts EF up to three votes first - no value in doing this to a wolf on D1

#416 Dubb vaults EF up to four votes (two vote lead) - no value in doing this to a wolf on D1

#425 Abe ties it 4-4 with NTN vote - very bad vote

#604 Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle - pulls PB back to the pack, moving EF within 2 votes of lead and Telle within 3 of lead. This looks really good right now with current info

#605 Chief puts EF within one of the lead with his vote

#668 Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle to pull her within 2 of lead


Telle was never really that close to the lead, but some of these moves above increased the pressure on EagleFan. I can't conceive of any wolf strategy on Day 1 to earn trust by getting a wolf (or two) in real danger.

Day 1 votes for Other folks still alive:
Saldana voted for Dubb in post #304, never moved it

I voted for EF in Post #328, never moved it

Jackal voted for PB in Post #329, never moved it

PF voted for Lerri, unvoted him to vote for NTN in post #374. No movement down the stretch

MommyTorgo never voted on this day

[hoopsguy]

A wolf can't buy trust by saying he trusts a villager unless that villager has been proven to be a villager.

But if he is trying to suggest a lovers role, which is what several of us concluded earlier in the game, he has pretty much negated that option and drawn attention to himself by offing the other lover who he said "kill me before you kill him".

It has not really worked out that way - he has been able to remain in the background, to a large extenf, for the past few days - but intuitively I think that killing off your "trusted villager" under those circumstances on N2 doesn't seem like optimal play.

Optimal play for the wolves if they thought they were getting a 2:1 with BK/Abe. But not so optimal if they knew they were not getting a double kill.

This one has confused me most of the game when I've tried to project Abe as a wolf. Maybe I'm thinking too hard here.

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 Most Significant Votes:

#668 Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle to pull her within 2 of lead

...

Day 1 votes for Other folks still alive:

MommyTorgo never voted on this day

Some additional thoughts on these two.

Poli did move his vote from a villager to a wolf, but it wasn't the "right" wolf in terms of getting us a Day 1 kill. That would have been EF. He comes out looking very good on voting record here. I suspect that I'll be dropping this suspicion as I look at the next few days.

MT not voting in a close race involving a wolf could be taken as a good sign - the wolves would have wanted all hands on the deck to save one of their own. Or it could have meant that he just missed the deadline, as he has suggested. Again, hope that reviewing future days helps build a stronger case for each player (villager/wolf).

[The Jackal]

UNVOTE HOOPS

Lessee where the day takes us.

[hoopsguy]

Day 2:
790 - Lathum votes PB 1-0
810 - DT votes PB 2-0
822 - Hoops votes PB 3-0
823 - Clap votes PB 4-0
846 - Dubb votes PB 5-0
875 - Clap unvotes PB 4-0
951 - Alan votes EF 4-1 PB over EF
969 - Autumn votes EF 4-2 PB over EF
971 - DT unvotes PB votes EF 3-3 PB/EF
985 - BK votes Hoops 3-3-1 PB/EF over Hoops
1001 - Dubb unvotes PB 3-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1014 - Dubb votes EF 4-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1016 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-2 EF over PB/Hoops
1017 - PB votes Hoops 4-3-2 EF over Hoops over PB
1020 - Telle votes PB 4-3-3 EF over Hoops/PB
1045 - Abe votes PB 4-4-3 EF/PB over Hoops
1047 - Jackal votes EF 5-4-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1050 - Jackal unvotes EF, votes PB 5-4-3 PB over EF over Hoops
1080 - Saldana votes EF 5-5-3 PB/EF over Hoops
1112 - MartinD votes EF 6-5-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB 6-6-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1123 - PF votes EF 7-6-2 EF over PB over Hoops
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB 7-7-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF 8-7-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1166 - Chief votes PB 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1169 - PB unvotes Hoops, votes EF 9-8 EF over PB
1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes Hoops 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1199 - Poli votes PB, votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1256 - INVALID - no unvote (Pass votes Telle), votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle 9-7-1-1 PB over EF over Hoops/Telle
1261 - Poli unvotes PB, votes Telle 8-7-2-1 PB over EF over Telle over Hoops
1265 - BK unvotes PB, votes Hoops 7-7-2-2 EF/PB over Telle/Hoops
1285 - Clap votes Telle 7-7-3-2 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1291 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 7-7-4-1 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF 8-7-3-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops
1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF 9-7-2-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops

[DaddyTorgo]

I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"

I'm almost 100% convinced that hoops and you are on opposite sides - just can't put my finger on which of you is the wolf. I'd love to vote one/both of you out at this point just to clear that up.

Either that or you two are the two remaining wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Day 2 setup - there had to be the realization among wolves that there may have been a seer scan on N1 against EF. I had posted during the night phase asking the seer to scan EF, plus it was a pretty logical play based on D1 voting. So I think there was less motivation to defend EF on D2 than there was on D1 when it was clear that no one knew anything. Also, the wolves criticized their own player, EF, costing themselves a vote that could very well have swung the results that day.


Day 2 - all votes were significant votes in a two horse race between villager/wolf:

#790 Lathum votes PB, never moves it despite saying in the thread that he thinks EF = good option. Suggestions that he was motivated to vote/stay PB due to role? (Lathum, please clarify so I'm not seen as putting words in your mouth if you think this is an unfair characterization)

#969 Autumn votes EF, cutting margin to 4-2

#971 DT unvotes PB, votes EF tying him with PB 3-3

#1014 Dubb votes EF, putting him two votes in front

#1045 Abe votes PB, tying it up again 4-4

#1047/1050 Jackal first votes EF, then changes to PB. Vote is 5-4

#1080 Saldana puts a vote down on EF, tying it at 5

#1123 PF votes EF, moving it to 7-6 EF. This feels like a pretty big vote to me.

#1166 Chief votes PB, tying it up at 8.

#1194 Saldana with a killer unvote here, moving from EF to me and tying it up again between EF/PB

#1199 Poli votes PB, putting him up 9-8. Not a good vote here.

#1261 Poli unvotes PB, changes vote to Telle. Vote is now 8-7 PB over EF. Certainly puts EF at risk.

#1318 Poli switches to EF at the very end of deadline, moving vote to 9-7

Telle's vote was on PB, so she did not have an option at the end to save EF or to create a tie. No idea on the other wolves.

[DaddyTorgo]

MommyTorgo just missed the vote on D1.

[hoopsguy]

I'm almost 100% convinced that hoops and you are on opposite sides - just can't put my finger on which of you is the wolf. I'd love to vote one/both of you out at this point just to clear that up.

Either that or you two are the two remaining wolves.

If you cannot come up with a scenario where both of us are villager then you should pick one of us to vote.

If it does end up with me in a run-off of some sort and I got to pick my opponent then I think there would be far worse choices than Lathum.

OK, time to get back to the vote analysis. Hopefully others are taking a fresh look at these as they are posted (raw votes at least, do what you will with my commentary).

[The Jackal]

All this vote info is helpful, thanks.

[hoopsguy]

Continued Day 2 vote thoughts:
Poli again is a tough one to read for me. He ends up with a very good vote, but he put PB in jeopardy very near the deadline prior to his extra vote right smack on the deadline.

If he is a villager then everything is exactly as it appears and no need for further evaluation.

If he is a wolf then he didn't like how he would look on Day 3 in the vote analysis and got creative. I could see him doing this, which is why I'm continuing to post on this possibility.

I'm pretty sure that I'm not going to be voting for Poli today, despite the fact that I'm typing more about him than anyone else over the first two days. It just feels too high risk/high reward for today when there are other candidates out there.

I'm not going to post cumulative trusts stuff after each day, although I expect that my feelings will bleed into the comments a bit. That is why I've posted the raw data (with post #'s) so people can check my work out themselves.

[Abe Sargent]

So are you looking at Abe? He voted villager until yesterday and there was nothing about BK's role to suggest he would have any clue about Abe. Almost like Abe pulled his "I trust Barkeep" out of a hat.

Please, look at the timing of my vote yesterday. I think I moved it to a tie, or was real close. No way I do that if I am a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Days 3 and 4 will take a little longer. I was not around at the vote deadlines so my logs were incomplete based on comparing them to the final vote numbers.

To be continued ...

[Lathum]

Yeah DT, put your mouth where our balls are.

[hoopsguy]

Wow, Day 3 was potentially really, really interesting. But hard to fully evaluate without knowing about Saldana.

1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1735 - Lerriuqs votes Saldana 5-3-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB/Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1740 - BK unvotes Telle 4-3-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB/Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1753 - Hoops unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Lerri
1766 - PB votes Jackal 4-4-3-1-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Lerri/Jackal
1773 - MartinD unvotes Lerri 4-4-3-1-1 Telle/Saldana over PB over PF/Jackal
1777 - MartinD votes Telle 5-4-3-1-1 Telle over Saldana over PB over PF/Jackal
1782 - MT votes PB 5-4-4-1-1 Telle over Saldana/PB over PF/Jackal
1789 - Pass unvotes Saldana, vote PurdueBrad 5-5-3-1-1 Telle/PB over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1791 - Chief votes Saldana 5-5-4-1-1 Telle/PB over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1797 - Telle votes PurdueBrad 6-5-4-1-1 PB over Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1798 - Chief unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 6-6-3-1-1 PB/Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1817 - Chief unvotes Telle, votes Saldana 6-5-4-1-1 PB over Telle over Saldana over PF/Jackal
1823 - PB unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana 6-5-5-1 PB over Telle/Saldana over PF
1824 - Jackal unvotes PF, votess PB 7-5-5 PB over Telle/Saldana

[saldana]

I can see this being one of those games where at the end everyone is like "man, I can't believe we let Hoops lead us around like that"


funny you should say that...i was thinking this morning about how annoyed i am going to be that both of you are wolves, and that you both played us all for the entire game

[hoopsguy]

Day 3 vote commentary:


Day 3 setup - there were a lot of people around near the deadline with the brutal wolf on the line. I was not, but based on posts in the thread the following people were: Chief, Autumn (no change), Jackal, MT (no change)

Day 3
#1535 Autumn with early vote on Telle (2-0), never moves it. Was around at the deadline to do so if he wanted.

#1554 Lathum votes PB, stays there (same as D2), tying him with Telle at 2-2.

#1616 Saldana votes Telle to make it 4-2 Telle and stays there for duration. This is not a self defense vote at this point as he has no heat on him yet.

#1633 Poli votes Telle and stays there. 5-2 Telle now. I like this Poli vote more than any on first two days, even though it is the same person he has voted each time.

#1637 Jackal throws vote on PF, his first vote of day. Vote stays until the very end.

#1661 PF votes PB, closing gap to two votes. Vote stays there for duration.

#1684 Dubb votes Saldana, his first vote of day. Vote stays for duration.

#1702 Abe votes PB, closing gap to one vote. Vote stays there for duration.

#1723 I vote Jackal, his first vote of day.

#1753 I change vote to Saldana, which now ties him for the lead with Telle

#1782 MT votes PB, making score 5-4-4 with Telle ahead of PB and Saldana. Very bad vote here given that he avoided a known wolf and went with a known villager. Not sure how bad on relative scale without knowing Saldana's faction

#1791 Chief votes Saldana, putting him one back of PB/Telle.

#1798 Chief unvotes Saldana, votes Telle to create a 6-6 tie with PB

#1817 Chief unvotes Telle, votes Saldana one minute before deadline (fear of tie)

#1823 PB unvotes Jackal, votes Saldana on deadline (too late?)

#1824 Jackal unvotes PF, votes PB (could have created tie with vote for either Saldana or Telle). He had also said earlier he was not going to change his PF vote to break the PB/Telle tie but did so right at the end. His post indicates that he had seen Chief's move, but not as sure if he saw PB's move.

[hoopsguy]

If we are to believe that The Jackal is a village, then we had a wolf on the line down the stretch without any wolves moving to save her.

I'm vouching for Chief, so that was a villager who ended up making a bad play.

There were people on Saldana who could have acted to save someone, but none that I know were around at deadline other than Chief Rum.

MT had his vote on PB, so he could only save PB and not Telle.

Autumn had his vote on Telle, so he could have "saved" her with a vote change.

[The Jackal]

Hoops, to clarify, I did not say I would not move my PF vote to break the tie, I said I wouldn't be moving it when I thought there wasn't a tie.

I moved it because of the tie possibility, I didn't want a tie, I just shouldn't have been voting for PB. I had it in my head that Lathum was on to something with him and by the time I realized he was probably good it was too late.

[The Jackal]

If PF is a wolf I'm gonna be pissed after this game that I suspected him all along and he got away with playing UTR. ;)

[hoopsguy]

#1782 MT votes PB, making score 5-4-4 with Telle ahead of PB and Saldana. Very bad vote here given that he avoided a known wolf and went with a known villager. Not sure how bad on relative scale without knowing Saldana's faction

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

[saldana]

question to lathum, if you are so confident that we are being led around by hoops, why arent you voting for him? or even trying to suggest we vote for him?

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, to clarify, I did not say I would not move my PF vote to break the tie, I said I wouldn't be moving it when I thought there wasn't a tie.

I moved it because of the tie possibility, I didn't want a tie, I just shouldn't have been voting for PB. I had it in my head that Lathum was on to something with him and by the time I realized he was probably good it was too late.

I'm not going to move my vote, I don't feel strongly about either of those choices.

The second quote is when it was a 6-6 tie between Telle and PB with two minutes to deadline. Post #1807.

Again, if I'm missing some nuance then let me know. There were quite a few posts that were fast and furious there, but the tie was set up at 6-6 in post #1798, three minutes earlier. So it sure read like you weren't going to break that tie because you did not feel strongly about the candidates. But you then did move the vote at the last second in post #1824.

unvote PF

vote PB

Just in case of shenanigans.

[The Jackal]

Okay, not leaving it in a tie. If others jump on to vote, I will switch back to saldana, my intended target. But it's 5-5, 5 mins to deadline and no one's saying anything.

UNVOTE SALDANA

VOTE TELLE

He's being a whiny biatch, but I buy the logic tolet PB go another day on the assumption the seer will have scanned him (and that seer better have by now).

Hoops, I based that post on this one from CR saying he put Telle into the lead. And when I posted that, the updated vote count showing a tie came right after it, and I did not want a tie.

[The Jackal]

I made a split-second decision because I was still trying to catch up, having just arrived in the thread. I didn't want to move my vote to give one person a stranglehold or make it a tie - but I definitely didnt want it to end in a tie, and it looked like no one was going to do anything (of course then CR did)

[Lathum]

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

do you mean DT?

[The Jackal]

I asked for a vote count, said I wasn't gonna move (because I thought it wasn't a tie), the vote count was posted, then I moved. Make sense?

[The Jackal]

I mean, that was my thought process. I ended up moving my vote onto the wrong damn person, anyways.

[Lathum]

question to lathum, if you are so confident that we are being led around by hoops, why arent you voting for him? or even trying to suggest we vote for him?

I can't

[The Jackal]

That post from saldana kind of makes me feel better about him. I'm not sure a wolf would ask that question, knowing that they criticized Lathum.

[saldana]

I can't

you cant vote for hoops? or you cant suggest to anyone else who to vote for.

let me guess...another function of you still as of yet unmanifested special ability

[The Jackal]

sal, they criticized him again last night, he can't vote today

[The Jackal]

of course he could be criticizing himself, but either way he cant vote

[saldana]

That post from saldana kind of makes me feel better about him. I'm not sure a wolf would ask that question, knowing that they criticized Lathum.

you cant vote for hoops? or you cant suggest to anyone else who to vote for.

let me guess...another function of you still as of yet unmanifested special ability
never mind...i had forgotten you wer criticized again...reading the night action before coffee is not a good plan.

[saldana]

although the criticizing doesnt stop you from making the suggestion

nor does it answer for the still as of yet unmanifested special ability that is going to benefit us all.

[Lathum]

I actually kind of like being criticized, it's liberating in a way.

[saldana]

I actually kind of like being criticized, it's liberating in a way.

you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

[saldana]

forgot the smiley :D

[Lathum]

I think I would vote Hoops if I could, but I can get behind a Jackal vote also

although the criticizing doesnt stop you from making the suggestion

nor does it answer for the still as of yet unmanifested special ability that is going to benefit us all.

not good enough for you I guess.

as for my ability I can't choose when to use it, but you will al know when it happens.

[Lathum]

you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

I know I feel better.

[The Jackal]

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

[The Jackal]

which i'm interested in hearing because i have to decide if i want to vote for him

[Lathum]

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

I don't think he meant that at all, had he meant that he would have said argument and not suggestion.

And it isn't like him to miss details like the ones he is missing.

[Lathum]

I would be very leery of anything hoops says right now. He has voted a wolf only 1 time, and that was his first vote one day 1.

I think he means provide an argument about why you would vote for hoops.

...

[hoopsguy]

do you mean DT?

Yes, thanks.

[Autumn]

Lathum, I can imagine what your role would be, and that it wouldn't show up unless certain circumstances occur. But I don't see any sign of it being activated on that day. can you point me to any indicator of it being activated?

[The Jackal]

Alright, thanks for re-posting.

[hoopsguy]

I asked for a vote count, said I wasn't gonna move (because I thought it wasn't a tie), the vote count was posted, then I moved. Make sense?

Yep, I know that the posts can come fast and furious near the deadline. That version you posted makes sense.

[hoopsguy]

Day 4 voting log:

1981 - Poli votes Telle 1-0
2021 - Autumn votes Lerriuqs 1-1 Telle/Lerri
2036 - MT votes Hoops 1-1-1 Telle/Lerri/Hoops
2051 - MT unvotes Hoops 1-1 Telle/Lerri
2057 - Hoops votes Lerri 2-1 Lerri over Telle
2087 - Clap votes Pass 2-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass
2160 - Saldana votes Lerri 3-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass
2184 - Dubb votes Hoops 3-1-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass/Hoops
2189 - Abe votes Lerri 4-1-1-1 Lerri over Telle/Pass/Hoops
2190 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2228 - Lerri votes Hoops 4-3-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2229 - Jackal votes Lerri 5-3-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2238 - MartinD votes Hoops 6-3-1-1- Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2248 - Lerri unvotes Hoops, votes Lerri 7-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops over Telle/Pass
2275 - Autumn unvotes Lerri, votes Telle 6-2-2-1 Lerri over Hoops/Telle over Pass
2276 - Chief votes Clap 6-2-2-1-1 Lerri over Hoops/Telle over Pass/Clap
2280 - MT votes Telle 6-3-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops over Pass/Clap
2286 - PF votes Telle 6-4-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops over Pass/Clap
2291 - Hoops unvotes Lerri, votes Clap 5-4-2-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Hoops/Clap over Pass
2294 - Dubb unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 5-5-2-1-1 Lerri/Telle over Clap over Pass/Hoops
2298 - Telle votes Lerri 6-5-2-1-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass/Hoops
2303 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes Lerri 7-5-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass
2320 - Lerri unvotes Lerri, votes Telle 6-6-2-1 Lerri/Telle over Clap over Pass
2324 - Dubb unvotes Telle, votes Lerri 7-5-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass
2325 - MT unvotes Telle, votes Lerri 8-4-2-1 Lerri over Telle over Clap over Pass

[Lathum]

Lathum, I can imagine what your role would be, and that it wouldn't show up unless certain circumstances occur. But I don't see any sign of it being activated on that day. can you point me to any indicator of it being activated?

I have a PM in to Danny to see if I can address this

[Autumn]

2238, it lists Martin as voting Hoops yet Lerri goes up by one?

[Autumn]

Okay, I checked my log, I think that's meant to say he voted Lerriuqs

[Danny]

I'll address this here, for the most part I'd prefer discussion to be on the voting analysis, etc... and less on exploring roles, I really don't want any potential reveals to go any further.

[saldana]

ok, not that i havent had the feeling myself, but just to see where this goes
unvote DT
vote hoops

[Autumn]

I'm going to stick with Abe for now then. His votes are pretty bad and I don't have any indication that he has anything but a wolf role.

[hoopsguy]

D4 setup - the early voting was really a departure from D3, with both Telle and Saldana drawing a ton less heat than they did the previous day. I'm absolutely responsible for part of this, as I'll note in the posts below. But this was a real missed opportunity to learn about Telle/Saldana.

Also, unlike D5 I do not see a scenario where they want to burn Telle if they can avoid it. They have to realize it is a possibility as the seer is still out there and unknown, but I think they want to ride the early wave on another candidate that they think is a villager.

D4 deadline participants - Lathum (could not vote), MT, Autumn, Dubb, me (sort of, flaky connection), Abe (post at 7:01)

D4 analysis:
#1981 - Poli is locked in on Telle at this point

#2021 - I'm not sure why Autumn changed horses from Telle yesterday to Lerri this morning. When I thought he was the seer I worked with idea that he had scanned her this AM

#2057 - I follow Autumn on his vote. I've obviously been pretty keen on his takes, since I think he is the seer at this point

#2160 - Saldana votes Lerri. He had a good Telle vote the previous day but now is falling in line on Lerri. What changed for him on Telle? This vote never moves.

#2189 - Abe keeps the Lerri train going. Vote never moves and he was around near the deadline.

#2229 - Jackal votes Lerri over me, Telle still way back. While I appreciate not picking up a vote here, from a wolf perspective both players are villagers so I can't give much credit here.

#2248 - here is where Lerri pulls the unvote, making it 7-2 margin over me and Telle is still at one vote (Poli's opener)

#2275 - Autumn starts run to Telle, suggesting that vote feels too easy. Yep, first time in awhile a wolf hasn't been in danger.

#2276 - Chief votes Clap. Oops.

#2280 - MT votes Telle. Good vote here as it opens up the possibility of bringing a wolf into the mix.

#2286 - PF votes Telle. Even better vote, PF is staying strong near the top of my trust list.

#2291 - I unvote Lerri, but move to Clap. Best move would have been a vote on Telle, but the move to Clap at least creates some pressure by shrinking Lerri's lead over Telle to 5-4

#2294 - Dubb unvotes me, votes Telle. Very good vote, I'm pretty much prepared to cede the game if Dubb has been making these kinds of plays as a wolf.

#2320 - Lerri make a move off himself to Telle one minute before the deadline, tying him with Telle.

#2324 - Dubb swings his vote from Telle to Lerri, 7-5 Lerri.

#2325 - MT swings his vote from Telle to Lerri, 8-4 Lerri.

[DaddyTorgo]

Note - if PB is trying to "save" Telle, then why is he not putting the vote on Saldana to tie it? I find this vote to be the most interesting one of the day right now. Of course, if he is a villager it doesn't mean dick.

Time to move onto Day 4.

Because I wasn't trying to save Telle. Because I am a villager and she was a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

VOTE LERRIUQS

I may well be voting for a villager, but his lack of activity doesn't feel right to me.

This is Post #2238, so error was in my log. But the vote count is correct there.

[DaddyTorgo]

you suck, you have a bad hairline, you have shitty taste in beer, and all your favorite sports teams blow.

yeah...that was liberating.

omg :D

[hoopsguy]

Day 5 votes (did these yesterday, so no additional research time required):

2452 Poli votes Telle 1-0
2467 Clap votes Telle 2-0
2472 Lathum votes Hoops 2-1 Telle over Hoops
2476 Hoops votes Clap 2-1-1 Telle over Hoops/Clap
2481 Lathum unvotes Hoops, votes Saldana 2-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana
2494 Saldana votes Lathum 2-1-1-1 Telle over Clap/Saldana/Lathum
2501 Chief votes Clap 2-2-1-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana/Lathum
2509 Dubb votes Saldana 2-2-2-1 Telle/Clap/Saldana over Lathum
2513 Autumn votes Clap 3-2-2-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum
2521 Abe votes Hoops 3-2-2-1-1 Clap over Telle/Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2558 MartinD votes Telle 3-3-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2587 Telle votes Clap 4-3-2-1-1 Clap over Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2590 PF votes Telle 4-4-2-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2593 Jackal votes Saldana 4-4-3-1-1 Clap/Telle over Saldana over Lathum/Hoops
2595 Abe unvotes Hoops, votes telle 5-4-3-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2598 MT votes Clap 5-5-3-1 Telle/Clap over Saldana over Lathum
2604 Saldana unvotes Lathum, votes Telle 6-5-3 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2614 Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 7-5-2 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2622 Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes Telle 8-5-1 Telle over Clap over Saldana
2627 Jackal unvotes Saldana, votes Clap 8-6 Telle over Clap
2635 MT unvotes Clap, votes Telle 9-5 Telle over Clap

[dubb93]

If we assume that the wolves knew Martin was the seer I think it is possible that they gave up the vote yesterday when Martin voted Telle out of fear of him revealing and creating a massive COT if they pushed too hard against her.

[hoopsguy]

Dubb, I've posted some long thoughts on why I think they did exactly that.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, assuming you are making that move as a villager - do you see that the wolves were willing to make that move today?

Telle was going to get nailed to a wall sometime soon by virtue of the heat she was getting in every direction and the fact that the person they knew was the seer was voting for her. They had a shot at both the seer and a roled Clap in the same day by allowing Telle to fail. And the late movers can pick up some trust in the process as an added bonus.

If you think that the wolves could think this way, then you look at that late movement a little bit differently.

Sure, if they thought they could get Clap lynched today then they keep their brutal for tomorrow. But what if the alternate target ended up being Saldana and Clap is still around at night to potentially block them (remember, they knew seer already, so what role is Clap going to have when they know he is a villager and not seer?) when they go for the seer? Was Saldana a wolf or a villager? If he was a wolf, then it was obviously easier to just give up Telle here.

Anyway, that is why I'm noting who had votes on the wolf but not calling out early/late movement on that particular vote.

Dubb, here was my post on that very topic from last night post-deadline.

[dubb93]

If you look at the vote after the Martin vote for Telle there was a huge run on her. I think we may find some wolves in the voters after Martin placed his vote on her. I will include myself in the list since I was one of those voters even though I know I am a villager:

Abe
Saldana
Dubb
Lathum
MT
PF

All of these were unvotes EXCEPT for PF. I would look at the ones who unvoted and switched after the Martin vote and I have bolded those names. I have to think there are a couple of wolves in that list.

[The Jackal]

I'm going skating for a few hours, I'll be back but I'm going to put this out there for now.

VOTE ABE

[dubb93]

I'm going with Abe for reasons I have stated above and on the last page.

Vote Abe

[Abe Sargent]

you think I would vote to go 5-4 on a wolf and break a tie, when I'm not going to be around later?

You think I'd jump way out in front on Day One as a wolf, knowing I would get major heat, just because I like to live dangerously as a wolf.

If you honestly think my play in this game has been anything wolfish, then you are either a wolf yourself, trying to throw suspicion on a villager, or you are absolutely rubbish at reading people in WW>

[Abe Sargent]

Now that Bk is dead, you will learn nothing from the revelation of my role if I die.

[hoopsguy]

Day 5 setup - assumption is that the wolves know that MartinD is the seer going into the day. Telle has been on block every day and has already drawn heat from the seer. It is clearly in their best interests to keep him quiet for one more day so they can night kill him.

#2452 - Poli continues his crusade against Telle, was started the night before when he called out for others to join him on the vote. At some point I would love to know how he was so sure when he wasn't the seer.

#2472 - Lathum puts a vote on me

#2476 - I put a vote on Clap, vote stays there for duration.

#2481 - Lathum moves to Saldana

#2494 - Saldana moves it to Lathum

#2501 - Chief votes Clap. At this point, do the wolves want to see Telle lynched? I'm not sure. Chief's vote stays for duration.

#2509 - Dubb votes Saldana

#2513 - Autumn votes Clap, says later he was following me and Chief (little nervous about this as the wolves know who is the seer right now, but still have Autumn pretty high on personal trust list)

#2521 - Abe votes for me

#2558 - MartinD votes Telle, which he has done pretty consistently for a couple of days now. But he has not revealed as the seer. I think by this point they are more or less ready to see Telle die just to keep MartinD from revealing and publishing his list.

#2587 - Telle votes for Clap, puts him in lead.

#2590 - PF votes Telle, tying it up again. PF did vote for Telle the previous day as well.

#2593 - Jackal votes for Saldana, introducing a new candidate to the vote

#2595 - Abe unvotes me, votes Telle into lead by one. I do not think there is a history of voting for Telle here.

#2598 - MT votes Clap, tying the vote one more time

#2604 - Saldana unvotes Lathum, votes Telle into lead 6-5. He has voted for Telle on D3, but I think that is only time.

#2614 - Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes Telle to push lead to 2. I don't think he has voted Telle previously but will double-check.

#2622 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes Telle, lead now 3. Again, will check previous votes but I'm really not suspecting Dubb right now.

#2635 - MT unvotes Clap, votes Telle. Once again, voting records to check.

[hoopsguy]

OK, new idea that I'll explore this morning when I finish my work commitments - who were the people who voted for Telle yesterday that did not vote for her when she had been in danger on earlier days?

I've got pretty good vote/unvote logs from each of the days so I'll look at those.

If anyone wants to chime in on this before I get the data up, I would love feedback on if this idea makes sense as a way to find a wolf. Obviously it is somewhat self-serving, since I never voted Telle (that I can recall) so I won't appear on this list. But I think that it makes for an interesting data point, at the very least.

If you look at the vote after the Martin vote for Telle there was a huge run on her. I think we may find some wolves in the voters after Martin placed his vote on her. I will include myself in the list since I was one of those voters even though I know I am a villager:

Abe
Saldana
Dubb
Lathum
MT
PF

All of these were unvotes EXCEPT for PF. I would look at the ones who unvoted and switched after the Martin vote and I have bolded those names. I have to think there are a couple of wolves in that list.

Once again, looks like our thinking today dovetails pretty nicely.

[Abe Sargent]

I pushed for Telle or hoops right after lynch revealed the Sympathizer seemingly protect either one or the other who were in the running at various times.

That gave me hard info, and I pushed for one or the other the entire day. When I voted for Telle, it was because the other one, hoops, was not getting votes, and I wanted to vote for one or the other based on Lerri's play.

[hoopsguy]

This is quite ugly but here is the voting list that I have, Hoops.


The Jackal 1 PurdueBrad 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Claphamsa

Abe 1 ntndeacon 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

PackerFanatic 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Telle 5 Telle

Hoopsguy 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

Lathum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 PurdueBrad 4 Criticized 5 Telle Criticized

Poli 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Telle

Dubb93 1 Eaglefan 2 Eaglefan 3 Saldana 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Autumn 1 Telle 2 Eaglefan 3 Telle 4 Telle 5 Claphamsa

Chief Rum 1 Eaglefan 2 Purdue 3 Saldana 4 Claphamsa 5 Claphamsa

DaddyTorgo 1 ntndeacon 2 Eaglefan 3 PurdueBrad 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Saldana 1 dubb 2 Hoopsguy 3 Telle 4 Lerriuqs 5 Telle

Going to be referencing this in a second ...

[hoopsguy]

If you look at the vote after the Martin vote for Telle there was a huge run on her. I think we may find some wolves in the voters after Martin placed his vote on her. I will include myself in the list since I was one of those voters even though I know I am a villager:

Abe
Saldana
Dubb
Lathum
MT
PF

All of these were unvotes EXCEPT for PF. I would look at the ones who unvoted and switched after the Martin vote and I have bolded those names. I have to think there are a couple of wolves in that list.

Abe - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game.
Saldana - had what seems to me to have been a significant vote on Telle on D3.
Dubb - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game. But based on re-read I'm not terribly suspicious of him.
Lathum - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game. In fairness, was criticized one day but I don't recall him putting much pressure on her on D4 (again, correct if I'm wrong)
MT - D5 was first time his final vote was Telle all game.
PF - also voted for Telle on D4, vote yesterday was not an unvote.

[saldana]

#2160 - Saldana votes Lerri. He had a good Telle vote the previous day but now is falling in line on Lerri. What changed for him on Telle? This vote never moves.


my vote for telle the day before was based on a post by Barkeep that made me think he was the seer....he said he felt good about voting for her before, but was more excited about it today....he then came up dead and not the seer, so i at that point shifted my thoughts off of her.

[hoopsguy]

Day 5 voters (non-Telle):
Jackal
Hoops (I'm clearing myself, for whatever that is worth)
Autumn
Chief (I'm vouching for him)
Telle (wolf)

[hoopsguy]

I'm pretty sure my vote today will be between Lathum, Abe, and MT.

Saldana and Jackal are a little further back on my distrust list right now.

I cannot see a situation where I vote for Chief, Poli, Dubb, PF, or Autumn this afternoon.

[hoopsguy]

I have a PM in to Danny to see if I can address this

How is this working out for you, Lathum?

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to go with Lathum today. I think his role is BS, he has never put any real pressure on Telle, and the "No Vote" thing is actually working out to his advantage to some extent because he isn't having to justify votes.

I recognize that this is a stretch compared to some of the other candidates that have been floated but I think there is a pretty good likelihood that there is a veteran wolf who is letting some of the veteran villagers stick around to help with creating a smokescreen. I trust Chief, Dubb, and Poli so that starts to thin the herd a little bit on who would be the "vet wolf".

The Day 1 vote on EF is about the only thing that I can't quite rationalize with his play right now.

VOTE LATHUM

[Autumn]

Abe, PackerFanatic, Lathum, Poli and Dubb are the only players I don't think I have figured out at this point. I think three of them are wolves, two villagers. Voting history doesn't peg all three of them, but I'll keep looking.

[hoopsguy]

Abe, PackerFanatic, Lathum, Poli and Dubb are the only players I don't think I have figured out at this point. I think three of them are wolves, two villagers. Voting history doesn't peg all three of them, but I'll keep looking.

So are you willing to share some of your conclusions on the other players, other than that you think they are villagers?

[Lathum]

How is this working out for you, Lathum?

I'll address this here, for the most part I'd prefer discussion to be on the voting analysis, etc... and less on exploring roles, I really don't want any potential reveals to go any further.

--

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, maybe my vote on you will trigger your condition. One can only hope. But I'm excited about the prospect of seeing your way-cool role out in the open to the benefit of all villagers.

[Lathum]

Lathum, maybe my vote on you will trigger your condition. One can only hope. But I'm excited about the prospect of seeing your way-cool role out in the open to the benefit of all villagers.

seriously, fucking stop putting words in my mouth.

I never said it was way cool. I said it is helpful to the village.

[hoopsguy]

OK, then I hope that I'm helping the village by voting for you.

[Lathum]

Clever set up by hoops btw. I highly recommend you guys not following him, amazing he waited until there's a day I can't vote to come after me.

[Lathum]

OK, then I hope that I'm helping the village by voting for you.

you wanna go down that road then that's fine. But there is zero chance it will be me getting lynched tonight.

[Lathum]

and FWIW the guy leading the charge against me has maybe the worst voting record this game, while I have had a hand in 2 key votes damning wolves, but Hoops has found a clever way to circumvent that point.

[DaddyTorgo]

solid analysis hoops - and i can't fault your thinking i might be wolfish - hasn't been my strongest game. i can honestly admit i've been a bit...distracted by life.

fact is though that i'm just a villager, albeit one without any particular use to the village at this time. so voting me out would just cost a villager, nothing more, nothing less.

Abe, Telle, and PF seem to be the commonalities between hoops' list and autumn's list.

I have to add to that that I am somewhat suspicious of Poli as well - his strong push for Telle could easily be a wolfish tactic designed to draw trust after they decided to cut her loose.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, if you are in fact a villager that cannot be lynched then that sounds really, really beneficial to the village.

There is no listed wolf role with that power, so we would see that you are a villager.

BTW, I was stunned that Pass did not duke you the last time that you said that you would not be getting lynched when you picked up a vote. I'm hoping he will answer why he did not go after you immediately after reading that back on Day 3 or 4 (whenever it was).

[DaddyTorgo]

like i said - i really think we need to get this hoops vs. lathum thing figured out. the way they're going at each other, one/both are likely wolves.

so in the hopes of that getting going - subject to change later of course

VOTE HOOPSGUY

[hoopsguy]

Abe, Telle, and PF seem to be the commonalities between hoops' list and autumn's list.

I would hope that Telle is on everyone's wolf list by now :)

So, what name did you mean to have listed there?

[Lathum]

Lathum, if you are in fact a villager that cannot be lynched then that sounds really, really beneficial to the village.
.

do you think thats the case?

[hoopsguy]

This game has just moved into 10th for all-time posts. Assuming we have a couple of days left, this one might find its way up to 4,000 posts.

[hoopsguy]

do you think thats the case?

I'm going to be very surprised if you have a role that allows you to circumvent a lynch, either by negating it or redirecting it. We already had a public duke role in the game.

[Danny]

As of 2879

2 Hoopsguy - Saldana (2842), DaddyTorgo (2879)
3 Abe - Autumn (2782), The Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854)
1 Lathum - Hoopsguy (2866)

Yet to vote Poli, Chief Rum, PackerFanatic

[Lathum]

I'm going to be very surprised if you have a role that allows you to circumvent a lynch, either by negating it or redirecting it. We already had a public duke role in the game.

so when you said you think you are helping the village by voting me you think I am a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Danny, Jackal unvoted me and voted Abe. It should be 3-2-1.

Hoops - Saldana (2842), MT (2878)
Abe - Autumn (2782), Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854)
Lathum - Hoops (2866)

2713 Autumn votes Jackal 1-0
2726 Hoops votes Jackal 2-0
2731 Jackal votes Hoops 2-1
2758 Hoops unvotes Jackal 1-1
2759 Saldana votes MT 1-1-1
2766 Dubb votes Chief 1-1-1-1
2767 Autumn unvotes Jackal, votes Chief 2-1-1 Chief over Hoops/MT
2782 Autumn unvotes Chief, votes Abe 1-1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Chief/Abe
2784 Dubb unvotes Chief 1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Abe
2792 Jackal unvotes Hoops 1-1 MT/Abe
2842 Saldana unvotes MT, votes Hoops 1-1 Abe/Hoops
2853 Jackal votes Abe 2-1 Abe over Hoops
2854 Dubb votes Abe 3-1 Abe over Hoops
2866 Hoops votes Lathum 3-1-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2878 MT votes Hoops 3-2-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum

[hoopsguy]

so when you said you think you are helping the village by voting me you think I am a wolf?

Correct.

[Danny]

Ok, fixed

[DaddyTorgo]

I would hope that Telle is on everyone's wolf list by now :)

So, what name did you mean to have listed there?

Whoops

Abe, Lathum, PF is what I guess I meant to say.

[hoopsguy]

Whoops

Abe, Lathum, PF is what I guess I meant to say.

PF is not on my list.

[DaddyTorgo]

oh wow - i didn't realize there were 3 on abe - must have missed that

[DaddyTorgo]

then idk what i meant - i had a third name that seemed suspect to you both, but i forget hoops

[Lathum]

Correct.

well you made it sound like by voting me you were helping the village by triggering my ability, 2 very different things

[Danny]

This game has just moved into 10th for all-time posts. Assuming we have a couple of days left, this one might find its way up to 4,000 posts.

Wow, hopefully everyone has had fun, though 4,000 seems a bit out of reach :)

[hoopsguy]

Assuming that Chief is willing to back me up in the same way that I have him, I think the wolves are going to be in a tough spot tonight. We both have pretty lousy voting records, so you would want to leave one or both of us around to be patsies later in the game. But if people actually believe us then they have a 2-man COT that has emerged even after they got the seer out of the way. Which is significant both for today with 10 people and tomorrow with 8 people.

Of course, their best course of action is to convince the remaining villagers that I'm full of crap and that I'm a spinning wolf. If the villagers lynch me or Chief, that saves the wolves having to do the dirty work themselves.

Anyway, should be interesting to watch the rest of the way however it unfolds.

[hoopsguy]

well you made it sound like by voting me you were helping the village by triggering my ability, 2 very different things

I was being flippant; I do not think that you have an ability to trigger that is going to help the village after 5 1/2 days of it lying dormant.

[Lathum]

so Hoops, you think my day 2 exploits were just a ruse as a wolf to try and build trust with 19 people left and the seer still alive to scan me since I was acting so strangely?

[hoopsguy]

Yes, if you are a wolf then I'm guessing you are the cunning wolf. I had minimized this possibility earlier in the game but I've come back around to it after the last few days of votes and posts by you.

[hoopsguy]

But honestly, I'm not all that worried about what wolf role you hold as long as you are a wolf. If you are a villager then I'll guess it just goes onto the list of times I've been wrong this game. Which are well documented already.

[Poli]

I'll start here - Poli, you obviously are not seer, BG, or duke so you can't role reveal. But was your determination to get Telle yesterday purely gut-driven or was there something more that led you in that direction?

A little bit of both. I wish I could go into more detail.


#2452 - Poli continues his crusade against Telle, was started the night before when he called out for others to join him on the vote. At some point I would love to know how he was so sure when he wasn't the seer.

See above comment.

With that, I'm struggling with where to put my vote. I'll make a decision soon. I'll be working out and heading off to church later tonight.

[Lathum]

Yes, if you are a wolf then I'm guessing you are the cunning wolf. I had minimized this possibility earlier in the game but I've come back around to it after the last few days of votes and posts by you.

thats such a standard response and c'mon, on day 2 i'm not making a crazy play as a wolf.

I think it more likely you want us to waste a day today so you guys can get an extra kill tonight.

[Lathum]

dola- I'll add I think hoops is so keen to get me out today because he knows they can't night kill me since it will make them look pretty bad when I come back villager.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, there are three wolves in the game (hopefully two, but lets assume three). One of them is very likely to be the cunning.

Honestly, I do not care which one you are if you are in fact a wolf. I think my assumptions on your play are a little more tidy if you are the cunning wolf, but I won't beat myself up too much if you are one of the other roles.

[Abe Sargent]

As of 2879

2 Hoopsguy - Saldana (2842), DaddyTorgo (2879)
3 Abe - Autumn (2782), The Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854)
1 Lathum - Hoopsguy (2866)

Yet to vote Poli, Chief Rum, PackerFanatic


And me, I haven't voted.

I'll go:

vote hoopsguy

This is really just SD right now, happy to change elsewhere as the day progresses.

[hoopsguy]

dola- I'll add I think hoops is so keen to get me out today because he knows they can't night kill me since it will make them look pretty bad when I come back villager.

Wait, so you can't be lynched and you can't be night killed?

I'm not trying to "put words in your mouth" - I'm honestly stunned at what I'm reading here.

Or are you saying that your record of posts up to the point where I came after you today paints such a clear trail of evidence that the remaining villager would have no choice but to come after me with a rope?

If it is the latter, then the wolves would desperately love to night kill you in order to see that result.

[hoopsguy]

And me, I haven't voted.

I'll go:

vote hoopsguy

This is really just SD right now, happy to change elsewhere as the day progresses.

At some point I would have to play self-defense as well. Right now, I'm not looking to do it.

Does your self-defense vote change if Chief arrives and says that he trusts me? Why or why not?

[Abe Sargent]

My SD vote goes wherever it will do the most good keeping me alive. Whichever non-Abe has the most votes gets the vote unless they move off me, then I can non-SD.

If I were going to vote you because of something in thread, I'd have already done it.

[saldana]

Clever set up by hoops btw. I highly recommend you guys not following him, amazing he waited until there's a day I can't vote to come after me.

tbh, this is the reason i am not on you today....i thought criticizing a wolf when there were 20 votes in play was a good plan...doing it when there are only 10 is alot riskier and i dont think you would make that move.

hoops has been on my radar the whole game, much like you have (i really dont like the whole i cant be lynched claim), but the whole super in depth analysis feels like he is trying to create an overload that keeps anyone from looking at him.

i will almost certainly be gone tonight at deadline, so hopefully i chose the right master wolf candidate

[Lathum]

c'mon Hoops,

1. Do you really think I can't be night killed
2. If that was the case I couldn't say that as per the rules.

I think you know what I meant is it would draw a clear path to you.

[Poli]

It's between hoops and abe at this point for me. I don't see me voting for lathum at this point.

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, I was actually hoping to let hoops' confidence be what carries things rather than commit to anything myself, but since he is on the line right now, it seems I don't have that luxury.

I am as confident of hoops' allegiance as a villager as he is of me. He is in fact my #1 trusted player in the game.

Take that for what it's worth.

[Lathum]

hoops has been on my radar the whole game, much like you have (i really dont like the whole i cant be lynched claim),

I said a few posts back I can be lynched same as anyone else.

[Lathum]

Hmm, I was actually hoping to let hoops' confidence be what carries things rather than commit to anything myself, but since he is on the line right now, it seems I don't have that luxury.

I am as confident of hoops' allegiance as a villager as he is of me. He is in fact my #1 trusted player in the game.

Take that for what it's worth.

is this based on a role or just gameplay?

[Poli]

VOTE ABE

I'll take that.

[Lathum]

tbh, this is the reason i am not on you today....i thought criticizing a wolf when there were 20 votes in play was a good plan...doing it when there are only 10 is alot riskier and i dont think you would make that move.


I would like hoops to address this.

[Autumn]

With Chief's vouch, I'm very confident in my list I posted earlier. I quite strongly believe that the two of them can vouch for each other. I'm not sure that Lathum is a wolf, or just a villager chasing up the wrong tree, but I feel pretty good about an Abe vote.

[Lathum]

With Chief's vouch, I'm very confident in my list I posted earlier. I quite strongly believe that the two of them can vouch for each other. I'm not sure that Lathum is a wolf, or just a villager chasing up the wrong tree, but I feel pretty good about an Abe vote.

I haven't chased anything, all I have done is defend myself against Hoops and it is natural for me to have elevated mistrust for him based on the fact I know I am good and he is coming at me.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE ABE SARGENT

[Abe Sargent]

I can't do more than list facts. Anyone who thinks this is how I like to play a wolf just doesn't know me. I win as a quieter less in front wolf, so why would I change it when we have 21 players on day one? Come on now. There are numerous roles in previous games that would allow me to make the claim I made about Bk and my role. And I was right, btw.

You think I would break a tie in a close race with a wolf on the line? You are silly. I have never given up a fellow wolf like that ever. I think that is poor wolf play. I certainly wouldn't do it when I'm not around later to unvote and go elsewhere if a reason presents itself.

Here is the best reason. NO ONE can question this or doubt this. On this I am unassailable.

I would NEVER allow a Night Two kill of a player who was coming back after a very long hiatus or brand new barring them revealing as a valuable role. I would NEVER do that to a player, EVER.

If you think that I, as a wolf, would ever be party to allowing AlanT to get night killed as the first night kill in the game, then you are deluded.

[Autumn]

So are you willing to share some of your conclusions on the other players, other than that you think they are villagers?

There is not much that I can share. Nobody here can role reveal but I've still been able to piece together some guesses that I feel good about. I don't expect the wolves know enough to be able to fool me that well.

[Abe Sargent]

Here is the best reason. NO ONE can question this or doubt this. On this I am unassailable.

I would NEVER allow a Night Two kill of a player who was coming back after a very long hiatus or brand new barring them revealing as a valuable role. I would NEVER do that to a player, EVER.

If you think that I, as a wolf, would ever be party to allowing AlanT to get night killed as the first night kill in the game, then you are deluded.


I would like every player voting for me to read this real good.

[hoopsguy]

tbh, this is the reason i am not on you today....i thought criticizing a wolf when there were 20 votes in play was a good plan...doing it when there are only 10 is alot riskier and i dont think you would make that move.

hoops has been on my radar the whole game, much like you have (i really dont like the whole i cant be lynched claim), but the whole super in depth analysis feels like he is trying to create an overload that keeps anyone from looking at him.


I would like hoops to address this.

I agree it is a lot riskier. I'm not sure that I'm the right person to address it as I'm not part of the group that gets to make decisions on who to criticize.

However, I'll take a stab at it. The wolves knew that they were going to be getting the seer last night (assuming that they had the role finger MartinD the previous night). They knew that they had quite a few "good" votes on Telle yesterday and that several prominent villagers had bad votes. They knew they would not be fighting against a big COT today.

With those factors in mind, maybe they got a little overconfident? Because it was going to provide a framework to protect one of their own from casting a bad vote on a villager today, and they felt that their remaining members were in pretty good spots at the moment? After all, look at first few votes today - it was 1-1-1-1 at 11AM.

Probably the "right" answer to give here is something similar to what Lt. Colonel Nathan Jessup initially said when asked about the phone calls and letters of Private Santiago. But when it comes to posting theories, I've got a lot more "you can't handle the truth!" in me than I do "no comment". Hopefully that somewhat touches upon Saldana's other point, that I'm trying to flood people with info today. All I'm doing is reposting voting records and trying to make sense of them. It surprises me that more people do not take that approach, quite honestly.

[Lathum]

I believe you Abe, which means we are pretty screwed for today since I know I am good and CR is vouching for Hoops and likewise.

Not sure how it happened, but DT and Jackal, 2 people with poor voting records are getting no scrutiny. I think everyone needs to look that way today.

[saldana]

well...with that confirmation from chief, i guess i will go back to my original vote
unvote hoops
vote DT

[Abe Sargent]

unvote hoopsguy
\
We'll see where the day goes

[Lathum]

I don't get over confident as a wolf Hoops.

[saldana]

I believe you Abe, which means we are pretty screwed for today since I know I am good and CR is vouching for Hoops and likewise.

Not sure how it happened, but DT and Jackal, 2 people with poor voting records are getting no scrutiny. I think everyone needs to look that way today.

for the record, my vote was on DT almost the entire day

[Lathum]

well...with that confirmation from chief, i guess i will go back to my original vote
unvote hoops
vote DT

I think this is a step in the correct direction.

If it was anyone but Abe I would think is posturing but that's not his style. And if it is a bluff it is one 4 years in the making so Bravo.

[dubb93]

Not saying it is what is happening here but some of you seem to be taking this vouching thing pretty damn far. I think it goes without saying that the wolves know each other and I don't think it is beyond the realm of posibility that wolves could be vouching for each other at this point, especially with all the vouching that has been going on lately.

[hoopsguy]

For those who want to explore MommyTorgo, why do you suppose he would have put his vote on Telle on Day 4 to make it 6-3 and help get a run on her versus Lerriuqs? Telle was pretty much in the clear, with Lerriuqs self-vote opening up a five vote lead over me and Telle being six back?

He did not have his vote down at that time. He did not put the vote on me, tightening up a race. Instead, he put it on Telle, bringing her within three votes of the leader and establishing her as the alternate option to what they believed was a villager.

You can point out that he changed the vote at the deadline (along with Dubb) but I would maintain that he did not need to put her at risk that day. The wolves were in control, and he helped to let it slip away.

Second thought - are you just assuming that a wolf missed the deadline on D1 rather than getting in a vote that would have helped his teammate under pressure?

Those are the two data points that have kept me off MT, although his overall voting record and posts feel extremely sketchy on the whole.

[Autumn]

I can't do more than list facts. Anyone who thinks this is how I like to play a wolf just doesn't know me. I win as a quieter less in front wolf, so why would I change it when we have 21 players on day one? Come on now. There are numerous roles in previous games that would allow me to make the claim I made about Bk and my role. And I was right, btw.

You think I would break a tie in a close race with a wolf on the line? You are silly. I have never given up a fellow wolf like that ever. I think that is poor wolf play. I certainly wouldn't do it when I'm not around later to unvote and go elsewhere if a reason presents itself.

Here is the best reason. NO ONE can question this or doubt this. On this I am unassailable.

I would NEVER allow a Night Two kill of a player who was coming back after a very long hiatus or brand new barring them revealing as a valuable role. I would NEVER do that to a player, EVER.

If you think that I, as a wolf, would ever be party to allowing AlanT to get night killed as the first night kill in the game, then you are deluded.

I can't imagine a role that would allow you to know BK was good on day one unless it was a lovers type role, which it obviously wasn't.

Who is on your distrust list then? I have to pick among mine, and if you claim not to be a wolf, who would you suggest i vote?

[Lathum]

Not saying it is what is happening here but some of you seem to be taking this vouching thing pretty damn far. I think it goes without saying that the wolves know each other and I don't think it is beyond the realm of posibility that wolves could be vouching for each other at this point, especially with all the vouching that has been going on lately.

I considered that dubb, but lets say there is 8-3 ratio, what do they have to gain by this?

If it was closer to endgame I would be more leery of it with CR and Hoops.

[Lathum]

Hoops, why not Jackal then?

[hoopsguy]

Not saying it is what is happening here but some of you seem to be taking this vouching thing pretty damn far. I think it goes without saying that the wolves know each other and I don't think it is beyond the realm of posibility that wolves could be vouching for each other at this point, especially with all the vouching that has been going on lately.

Yep, but if it really is a pair of wolves doing a cross-vouch today then you have to pretty much assume that the wolves are in do-or-die mode right now, don't you?

I think even the most conservative estimates have the count at 8-3 today - without a brutal that should leave two days at a minimum to pull this off. Three days if there is no funny business with multiple kills.

Again, everyone gets to work it out themselves if I'm part of some kind of elaborate con job with Chief Rum playing along. If you think we are, then you should vote for one of us today.

But if you think that we're actually villagers, then why is everyone else moving to an alternate candidate in Abe? I've definitely been worried about how easily the vote has moved to Abe without really sniffing Lathum (or anyone else, frankly).

[Abe Sargent]

I can't imagine a role that would allow you to know BK was good on day one unless it was a lovers type role, which it obviously wasn't.

Who is on your distrust list then? I have to pick among mine, and if you claim not to be a wolf, who would you suggest i vote?

I'll give you one role that could, and it's not mine, so I mention it now.

Soothsayer.

Mine is something else, but that is a good example of a role that can get you that info on Day One.

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, why not Jackal then?

I can't believe a wolf would be caught at this point in the game without one good vote, especially when yesterday represented such a fertile opportunity for them to get in a good vote.

Bottom line, I can make up cases in either direction for just about everyone left. It is what happens when you are borderline obsessive with winning an online game, I guess.

[Autumn]

Updated vote count?

[hoopsguy]

Hoops - MT (2878)
Abe - Autumn (2782), Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854), Poli (2913), PF (2917)
Lathum - Hoops (2866)
DT - Saldana (2923)

2713 Autumn votes Jackal 1-0
2726 Hoops votes Jackal 2-0
2731 Jackal votes Hoops 2-1
2758 Hoops unvotes Jackal 1-1
2759 Saldana votes MT 1-1-1
2766 Dubb votes Chief 1-1-1-1
2767 Autumn unvotes Jackal, votes Chief 2-1-1 Chief over Hoops/MT
2782 Autumn unvotes Chief, votes Abe 1-1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Chief/Abe
2784 Dubb unvotes Chief 1-1-1 Hoops/MT/Abe
2792 Jackal unvotes Hoops 1-1 MT/Abe
2842 Saldana unvotes MT, votes Hoops 1-1 Abe/Hoops
2853 Jackal votes Abe 2-1 Abe over Hoops
2854 Dubb votes Abe 3-1 Abe over Hoops
2866 Hoops votes Lathum 3-1-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2878 MT votes Hoops 3-2-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2903 Abe votes Hoops 3-3-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2913 Poli votes Abe 4-3-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2917 PF votes Abe 5-3-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum
2923 Saldana unvotes Hoops, votes MT 5-2-1-1 Abe over Hoops over Lathum/MT
2924 Abe unvotes Hoops 5-1-1-1 Abe over Lathum/MT/Hoops

[dubb93]

I'll give you one role that could, and it's not mine, so I mention it now.

Soothsayer.

Mine is something else, but that is a good example of a role that can get you that info on Day One.

In all honesty that is the only role I was thinking of that could have gotten you that information. With you claiming to NOT have that role there is no way I move from you now.

My best guess now places that role elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

I think this is a step in the correct direction.

If it was anyone but Abe I would think is posturing but that's not his style. And if it is a bluff it is one 4 years in the making so Bravo.

I 100% agree with this part.

[Autumn]

Hoops, I agree that I don't like how easy the vote is switching over to Abe. All my other suspects are joining me there. Not good.

Let me add another of my suspects to the vote list, since I am not planning on voting Lathum, Hoops or DT.

<b>VOTE DUBB93</B>

[Autumn]

oops

<b>UNVOTE ABE
VOTE DUBB93</B>

[hoopsguy]

Hoops, I agree that I don't like how easy the vote is switching over to Abe. All my other suspects are joining me there. Not good.

Let me add another of my suspects to the vote list, since I am not planning on voting Lathum, Hoops or DT.

VOTE DUBB93

Did you unvote Abe?

[Lathum]

OK, my brain is fried from school and I am still in this class for 50 minutes

[hoopsguy]

Well, we have 8 of the remaining 11 players around right now so hopefully we can get in some good discussion before everyone scatters. Including me, as I have to take my daughter to her two-year doctor visit this afternoon. So you've got me around to question for a little more than an hour at this point.

[Abe Sargent]

Having made my claim, for the record, if there is a conversion in this game, and you wolves convert me, I will do what I can to win for you in this game, because that is the rule, but I will be very upset with you afterwards.

I'm just letting you know now.

[hoopsguy]

Danny has already said that there is no conversion in this game.

[Autumn]

I would love to hear something from my suspects. Lathum, we hear from a lot ;-) Abe has just spoken. PF, Poli and Dubb, beyond voting records, what can you offer that you have contributed to the village that can sway me?

[Abe Sargent]

Well, good to know. Now I won't have to get really pissed off at someone. Normally I don;t care, but I would here.

[Abe Sargent]

Alright, you guys are going to laugh, but I have an engagement with some fellow staff to get some dinner and play volleyball. I expect to be back prior to 8, but I will be out for a bit. Just letting you know.

[Abe Sargent]

In the meantime, just in case I do not get back, (and I expect to):

vote dubb

[Autumn]

Oh and Lathum, I'd love to hear a definite vote decision from you, even though you can't vote, so we have something to judge you by.

[Autumn]

dola I'm heading off to dinner, will be back in at least briefly before deadline.

[Chief Rum]

I agree that, from the outside, there should be a limit to what trust you can and should attach to what hoops and I say. It's compeltely reasonable to figure we're wolves trying to buy time.

If you want to test this, you could certainly lynch one of us. Having been far less available, especially recently, I would put myself up first rather than hoops, but that's up to you all, if you choose to go this route.

But the best way for the village is to not go after either of us and concentrate on the players with the worst voting records. Now, doing that got my vote on clap a couple times, so it's not fool proof. But it's a good start.

And although I don't think I have the best voting record around, I'm not barren either. Consider that I played a key role in putting Telle at risk on Day Three to a lynch to ensure a tie. My vote was on saldana before that. PB and Telle were the top vote getters. I switched to Telle to break the tie and loudly campaigned for us all to avoid a tie at that time. If I were a wolf, why would I choose Telle over PB with, what, five minutes left in the game?

Sure, I ended up switching off to (again) ensure we got a lynch, and the result was PB was lynched, but that's quite the leap if you guys think I orchestrated PB getting lynched in five minutes of play at the deadline. I mean, I know some people have said I am a dangerous player, but that's giving me waaaaayy too much credit.

And that's on top of the EF vote on Day One, with a clear opportunity to jump to PB to put either EF or Telle out of range.

Other votes I have made, such as clap and saldana, their voting records at that time are undeniable.

If you think I am a wolf after all that, go ahead and lynch me. If that allows the village to at least clear hoops, I figure it is worth it. But I am afraid we're up against it now with probably three wolves left. So consider carefully.

BTW, I think hoops' theory on the Telle lynching yesterday has a lot of legs. It's a bold play. The wolves already showed their willingness to be bold with the EF criticism. This is another in the same sort of move, IMO.

[Lathum]

Oh and Lathum, I'd love to hear a definite vote decision from you, even though you can't vote, so we have something to judge you by.

hard to say but I would probably be voting Jackal based on his voting record, however that may be a throwaway so likely it would be Dubb since I want to see how the Hoops-CR dynamic plays out

[Lathum]

dola I'm heading off to dinner, will be back in at least briefly before deadline.

dinner at 5:05, who are you, Morty Seinfeld?

[dubb93]

I really don't know what to make of the votes on me. I think I've played my best villager game since I started playing here again. I'm having a hard time seeing anything I've done that screams wolf. I don't understand the votes on me, but you if you think I'm blowing smoke up your ass vote for me I guess, it just puts the wolves one day closer to winning this damn game.

[hoopsguy]

dinner at 5:05, who are you, Morty Seinfeld?

Autumn = blue hair.

[Poli]

FWIW, I ate what I consider to be my dinner 20 minutes ago.

[hoopsguy]

Dinner = threadkiller?

[dubb93]

Dinner = threadkiller?

Looks like it, I'm about to head that way myself.

[Chief Rum]

If you guys were on the West Coast, you would still be at work.

[Poli]

Not if I could help it.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm out until after deadline. If people are not going after Lathum then hopefully the remaining villagers can make a better pick today than I did.

[Autumn]

dinner at 5:05, who are you, Morty Seinfeld?

No, just desperately interested in getting the kids asleep before too late (and deadline).

[Lathum]

so has everyone voted?

[Chief Rum]

so has everyone voted?

I haven't. What's the vote count right now?

[Lathum]

Hoops -1 MT (2878)
Abe -4 Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854), Poli (2913), PF (2917)
Lathum 1- Hoops (2866)
DT -1 Saldana (2923)
Dubb-2 Autumn (2941),abe ( 2950)

I am going off hoops last count and making the few changes but I think this is correct

[Autumn]

hard to say but I would probably be voting Jackal based on his voting record, however that may be a throwaway so likely it would be Dubb since I want to see how the Hoops-CR dynamic plays out

What do you make of Jackal's suggestion that he has an independent role, seemingly backed up by Saldana?

[Autumn]

I don't like having 5 candidates this late in the game. I'll be back later.

[Lathum]

What do you make of Jackal's suggestion that he has an independent role, seemingly backed up by Saldana?

I vaguely recall Jackals statement but don't recall anything about it from Saldana

I don't like having 5 candidates this late in the game. I'll be back later.

I agree, it's weird

[Lathum]

Another possibility is there is something in either Hoops or CR's roles to lead them to a false conclusion

[Abe Sargent]

If you guys were on the West Coast, you would still be at work.

I thought that would mean I'd be smoking weed and playing beach volleyball

[Poli]

So you don't drink but you smoke weed? Weird.

[DaddyTorgo]

well since hoops-lathum isn't the way we are going today I am comfortable switching to abe if needed.

also discovered I don't have a backup laptop it appears

[Poli]

I'll be leaving for church in about 20 minutes. I don't see anything that compels me to change my vote.

[Lathum]

why Abe, DT?

[Chief Rum]

I'm not wild about these choices. dubb has always been one of the best voters for the village, and I haven't been reading Abe as a wolf at all.

I am going to go with my gut, independent role or not.

VOTE THE JACKAL

Plus, voting record, of course.

[Lathum]

So not only does CR introduce a 6th candidate today, but he doesn't vote with his BFF hoops?

Something doesn't smell right

[Lathum]

So you don't drink but you smoke weed? Weird.

It amazes me that there are people out there who don't drink.

I love to drink.

[Abe Sargent]

Never drunk a drop of an alcoholic beverage in my life

[Poli]

Never drunk a drop of an alcoholic beverage in my life
Right. I knew that. The perplexing issue is that you don't drink yet have smoked weed?

Alcohol? No, thanks, nothing like that in my system.

Weed? Hand it over.

Color me confused. I actually think weed is the greater of the two "evils"...but, meh, your choice. I don't want to sound indignant, preachy, or whatever.

That said, I think I'm out until after deadline/church.

[dubb93]

Abe I'm still confused about any role you could have. You took the one role I thought you might have and said you don't have it.

[Lathum]

Never drunk a drop of an alcoholic beverage in my life

that is just so strange to me.

Now obviously everyone has their reasons, and I have the utmost respect for that. It's just so strange to me, I can't imagine not drinking, nor can I imagine my friends not drinking.

I think I am gonna start drinking right now

[Poli]

I didn't drink a drop until I was 27. I wish I never had.

[Autumn]

Drink enough for both ofyou, Lathum!

[Autumn]

Yeah, I really don't like these votes by DT and CR. Introduce a new candidate? That's as good as saying voting Abe, or just letting the wolves do what they wish.

Frankly, I think people should be worried that there was an easy pileup on Abe, and that now people say "I see no reason to move." I think we've got the wolves there, probably. Or staying away from it on fringe candidates so they can say they weren't voting out a villager.

[Abe Sargent]

Right. I knew that. The perplexing issue is that you don't drink yet have smoked weed?

Alcohol? No, thanks, nothing like that in my system.

Weed? Hand it over.

Color me confused. I actually think weed is the greater of the two "evils"...but, meh, your choice. I don't want to sound indignant, preachy, or whatever.

That said, I think I'm out until after deadline/church.

It was a joke, I've never smoked weed either, calm down.

[Autumn]

I think we should let Abe and Lathum ride at this point. I think both of their mysterious roles could be much clearer in another night or so.

[Abe Sargent]

Drink enough for both ofyou, Lathum!

I'm a pretty big guy. That's a lot.

[Abe Sargent]

I think we should let Abe and Lathum ride at this point. I think both of their mysterious roles could be much clearer in another night or so.

When BK died, my role became meaningless.

[Danny]

I didn't drink until 22 or so (almost 26 now). My wife is Armenian, so I will drink at those parties / fun stuff which is fun, and occasionally some wine with my wife, but other than that I don't have the need for it. On my honeymoon I did have pina coladas, and daiquiris not stop though. But I love those for the sugar.

[Lathum]

So hoops and CR, who have this connection are each casting wasted votes. Not sure what to make of that.

[Lathum]

I'm a pretty big guy. That's a lot.

I can drink alot, but not tonight. I have to much work to do

[Autumn]

vote count?

[Danny]

I'll work on the vote count.

[Abe Sargent]

So hoops and CR, who have this connection are each casting wasted votes. Not sure what to make of that.

Noticed that, did you?

[dubb93]

When BK died, my role became meaningless.

I don't get it. How could your role be dependant on BK? I don't see how his role would relate to anything that would allow you to ID him on day 1.

[dubb93]

that now people say "I see no reason to move." I think we've got the wolves there, probably. Or staying away from it on fringe candidates so they can say they weren't voting out a villager.

Even if I didn't think Abe was the best choice, which I do, who would I move to at this point? Myself? I see no reason to do that, I know that I am a villager.

[Danny]

As of 2997

1 Hoopsguy - DaddyTorgo (2879)
4 Abe - The Jackal (2853), Dubb (2854), Poli (2913), PackerFanatic (2917)
1 Lathum - Hoopsguy (2866)
1 DaddyTorgo - Saldana (2923)
2 Dubb - Autumn (2941), Abe (2950)
1 Jackal - Chief Rum (2977)

[Abe Sargent]

I don't get it. How could your role be dependant on BK? I don't see how his role would relate to anything that would allow you to ID him on day 1.

I never said his role would or did.