WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[The Jackal]

Nice.

[The Jackal]

Well, I didn't make it. Hopefully alive when I wake up.

[Alan T]

Hmm. still no Danny. I think the wolves ate him.

[Alan T]

I would argue that MartinD's vote today looks very good, so he is not on my radar the same way he appears to be for you.


MartinD is not on my radar really. His vote today looks good to me. I was commenting solely on your day 1 list (which you yourself said did not factor day 2 in it at all). based on day 1 alone, I really did not like that group of votes. On day 2, Martin somewhat redeemed himself, Telle made herself look worse by continue to try to push the focus away from Eaglefan (as one of the Lathum or PB camp).

As I'm sure everyone is aware by now, I obviously look at more than just who places what votes where when I make "gut" decisions, and I know everyone really despises it. But for me it is just as important to see who argued what, when and why as it is the votes themselves. Day 1 during the middle of the day, it just really felt obvious to me that some movement was occurring to save -someone-. I mistakenly read that as an attempt to save ntn on day 1 when I voted, but corrected that with my day 2 vote.

I also want to note that on day 1, Eaglefan was not necessarily in a huge amount of danger closer to the deadline once the PurdueBrad run was made because he had his vote in a location that could be moved if he needed to, plus he was waiting around at the deadline (as I commented that evening clearly) not really participating, but appearing as ready to move his vote if need be. So as I commented earlier in the morning of day 2, that a few people felt better to me then they did on day 1 (such as Lathum and Dubb) based on that vote there.

[Alan T]

Since I am talking to myself, I will continue to do so :)

Colors below are based on my belief, so read into it what you will. Dark Blue I trust, Light blue I feel decently about, Red is known wolf, pink I distrust.

Day 1

1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
3 - PurdueBrad - The Jackal (329), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
7- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699), PurdueBrad (711), EagleFan (713)
2 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668)


Day 2
7 - PurdueBrad - Lathum (790), hoopsguy (822), Telle (1020), Abe (1045), The Jackal (1050), Lerriuqs (1137), Chief Rum (1166)
9 - EagleFan - Alan T (951), Autumn (969), DaddyTorgo (971), dubb (1014), MartinD (1112), PackerFanatic (1123), Passacaglia (1157), PurdueBrad, Poli
1 - hoopsguy - saldana (1194)
2 - Telle - claphamsa (1285), Barkeep (1291)

[Alan T]

So other thoughts in my head.. at some point on day 2, I also wonder if it had to be figured that at some point Eaglefan was going to be a lost cause (if not today, then tomorrow or the next day), and thus later in the day fellow wolves should either vote for him or try not to save him. The other thing I am wondering is with that frame of mind if some of the wolves on day 2 chose to not actively try to save EF, but didn't defend him either, and instead stayed to the side.

[Danny]

Sorry about that, I had to sleep after the day deadline.

I'm here now, will begin processing night results soon.

[Danny]

You guys posted a lot while I was asleep :). If there were any in thread questions for me, please repost them as I may have missed them while catching up.

[Alan T]

You guys posted a lot while I was asleep :). If there were any in thread questions for me, please repost them as I may have missed them while catching up.


Yeah.. my only question is... what happened in the night phase :)

[Danny]

Almost done sending out PM's :), it will be up in one minute

[Danny]

As you all begin to wake up from a night full of peace from knowing you got rid of a Needie, you begin to smell something foul coming from a bed in the corner.

All of you gather around and one of you quickly flips the covers off and all of you see a dead AlanT. He has been mangled and covered in whip cream. Lord only knows what was done to him.

AlanT was the Arbitrator

The Arbitrator –You are exceptional at playing the middle man and working two sides to come to a common conclusion. Your vote decides any ties that take place during the course of the game. You also have the ability as a one time action to add one vote to your total. A PM must be sent to that you intend to use this action.

Day 3 begins, deadline at 8pm eastern.

[Danny]

Sorry Alan :(

[Alan T]

Yeah that was no shocker.

Good luck villagers! At least my return to WW was mostly a success - I felt I played well, and no on blew up and called me names (well at least to an extreme) :)

[hoopsguy]

Sorry to see you go, Alan. You were one (of two) people that I thought probably warranted a guard last night. Nice work on the EF play yesterday, given that you had no inside info.

[hoopsguy]

A couple of thoughts:
1.) I have no new information to bring to the table at this time and will wait for awhile to see what others may have up their sleeve. No quick vote this AM for me.
2.) I'm not sure if I'll have access to the site from work, but should be home in plenty of time to post this afternoon if blocked during the day.

[Poli]

I have nothing new to report, though it's a bummer to see Alan gone.

I'm working near home today, though I don't know if that means I'll be home relatively early or not.

[claphamsa]

Yeah that was no shocker.

Good luck villagers! At least my return to WW was mostly a success - I felt I played well, and no on blew up and called me names (well at least to an extreme) :)
you SCUK!

[saldana]

OK, so are you attacking this with the idea that EF and I are both wolves? I'm not quite sure what I'm supposed to be defending here but if that is the case take a look at the votes from yesterday. I think that would be a pretty tough case to make given me leaving him in danger all day and never moving my vote when pretty much everyone else flipped around multiple times.

i am apparently incorrect...my attack on you was based on the premise that EF wasnt a wolf, which we now know to be incorrect. I was theorizing he was the villager and you were the wolf, which now appears highly unlikely...you were just using some fuzzy logic, imo, which is very much not like you, and rang some bells for me.

[PurdueBrad]

Well there goes one of my trusted players and a semi-defender.

I got nothing except that at least I was consistently awful with my voting between days 1 and 2 I guess.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, that sucks that we lost Alan -- I was going to vote for him. :p

[PurdueBrad]

you were just using some fuzzy logic, imo, which is very much not like you, and rang some bells for me.

Now that my trying not to vote for people that are my nemesises/nemesi/how about enemies, has been destroyed, I think this is the third or fourth person to say something to this effect to Hoops this game (I was one, when I discussed tunnel-vision and I'm a little surprised, unless I missed it, that he never floated any other possible theories yesterday than PB is bad [but I need to look back to be sure my memory is correct]). I don't know if I would lynch him on this but it is something to keep an eye on I guess.

[Passacaglia]

why? because i voted PB before i went to bed and then unvoted him in the morning? that's stupid

You were part of a 5-0 score for PB. Sure, you unvoted him, which is more than what clap did, but it's definitely something that needs to be looked at. Were you online at deadline? If you were, and kept your vote on EF, that's obviously big ups for you.

[PurdueBrad]

You were part of a 5-0 score for PB. Sure, you unvoted him, which is more than what clap did, but it's definitely something that needs to be looked at. Were you online at deadline? If you were, and kept your vote on EF, that's obviously big ups for you.

I have no read on him, but Clap did unvote me too (unless I'm missing the point).

[claphamsa]

You were part of a 5-0 score for PB. Sure, you unvoted him, which is more than what clap did, but it's definitely something that needs to be looked at. Were you online at deadline? If you were, and kept your vote on EF, that's obviously big ups for you.
I unvoted him!

get your facts strait!

[PurdueBrad]

After going back through the thread, my trust list remains, in order:

Trust (Most to least): Poli, Lathum, Autumn

Needs looked at (tied): Saldana, Martin D

Distrusts (Most to least): Telle, Hoopsguy, Abe, The Jackal

[PurdueBrad]

Poli- listened to me on back-to-back days despite me being bad and him good last game. He put that aside and seems to follow logic rather than getting caught up.

Lathum- His role, despite being independent, seems harmless to us now. He never truly pushed for me and even said EF is a solid candidate.

Autumn- Same as Poli, minus some of the fun, dramatic Poli moves.

Saldana/Martin D- vote-based. I didn't love Martin D's day 1 reason but it was day 1. Saldana's late move off of EF to Hoops may be bad (but is voting for Hoops ever bad?)

The Jackal- ALL vote based (but you have to believe I'm good).

Abe- Pinged me somehow yesterday and I can't remember when and the possibly unfortunate voting away from a wolf back-to-back days.

Hoops- I've said it already but I'm not seeing his willingness to look at a lot of different angles, several people have said that his logic seems 'off' this game or he's pushing the village some, the early votes that don't move feels very non-Hoopsian, and Hoops is always on the opposite team as me.

Telle- I've laid it out and I guess it is more vibe than anything but voting record on me twice helps for my peace of mind and that Alan T, known good, also felt the same way.

[Abe Sargent]

I don't like night killing or lynching someone who is back from a long hiatus or a new player until the mid game. That sucks.

[PackerFanatic]

Ugh - 8 pages of posts to read. That's what I get for re-formatting my computer last night.

Although I do see we got a wolf last night, huzzah!

Now to get down to the nitty gritty of today...

[Danny]

Ugh - 8 pages of posts to read. That's what I get for re-formatting my computer last night.

Although I do see we got a wolf last night, huzzah!

Now to get down to the nitty gritty of today...

Yeah, you guys have been posting up a storm! Hopefully that means everyone is really into the game and enjoying themselves :)

[Alan T]

Yeah, you guys have been posting up a storm! Hopefully that means everyone is really into the game and enjoying themselves :)


I am!! oh wait...

[claphamsa]

and now it just shuts down!

[claphamsa]

I figure a good place to start is people called out by Alan, who we know was good.

vote telle

[Telle]

Oh goodie! I get to be first!

[Telle]

I figure a good place to start is people called out by Alan, who we know was good.

vote telle

You know, your vote on me yesterday was pretty much a hit and run. And I don't believe you ever explained why you'd rather go that route than voting for one of the lead contenders. And today you're not offering up anything other than "Well Alan said to do it".

[Autumn]

The Jackal and Telle are tops on my suspect list based on voting record. Telle has obviously been tossed around a lot for various vibe reasons as well. My job voting on my vibes has been horrible, so I'm wary of going there, but I think those are two good suspects. Frankly, I think a large clump of the people who voted PB yesterday must be Needies, so I'm looking at a group of those.

I'll follow with Telle, just so we have a contender for the day. I'm willing to slip to other of my suspects who anyone has a good case for though.

<b>VOTE TELLE</b>

[Passacaglia]

I unvoted him!

get your facts strait!

Sorry clap, it was early morning. I meant to say that DT put in a vote on EF, which is better than what you did. Now hopefully my facts are as strait as Magellan.

[Telle]

You know, the main case against me seems to be that both days I thought that PurdueBrad was a better lynch candidate than EagleFan. Has anybody noticed that I'm FAR from being the only one to have thought this way?

Others that voted for PB both days: Latham, hoopsguy, Chief Rum

Unless you all have something more against me, I suggest you don't tunnel-vision yourselves so much that you ignore others that the exact same case could be made against.

[Autumn]

My distrust list is, in order of most suspect to least:

Telle
TheJackal
Lerriuqs
Hoopsguy

[Autumn]

You know, the main case against me seems to be that both days I thought that PurdueBrad was a better lynch candidate than EagleFan. Has anybody noticed that I'm FAR from being the only one to have thought this way?

Others that voted for PB both days: Latham, hoopsguy, Chief Rum

Unless you all have something more against me, I suggest you don't tunnel-vision yourselves so much that you ignore others that the exact same case could be made against.

Actually my notes have Chief voting EAgleFan Day 1. As well as Hoopsguy. And Lathum voted Eagle Fan as well.

LOL, I'll take your argument then.

[Telle]

My distrust list is, in order of most suspect to least:

Telle
TheJackal
Lerriuqs
Hoopsguy

You've made your case against me. Care to share what you have on the others?

[Telle]

Actually my notes have Chief voting EAgleFan Day 1. As well as Hoopsguy. And Lathum voted Eagle Fan as well.

LOL, I'll take your argument then.

Oh shit.. I was looking in the wrong column in my notes. NEVERMIND!!

[Telle]

Oh shit.. I was looking in the wrong column in my notes. NEVERMIND!!

Although my logic DOES work for The Jackal. So that's something I guess.

[PackerFanatic]

I am not sure I like the push towards Telle so quickly with a group of other candidates (Lathum, PB, and Hoops) that might be better to look into today after the events of yesterday. Although I suppose the fact that Alan was pushing for Telle needs to be considered, so I can see that too.

[Autumn]

I don't have time to drag out all the details, but my case against that case is entirely vote-based. I'm focusing on those who voted PB yesterday, and those are the most suspect to me based on Day one votes and circumstance.

[Autumn]

I certainly don't want to see a one horse race, PF. But we need to start with one. Let's see some others. Unlike AlanT, I can't vote twice ;-)

[Telle]

I am not sure I like the push towards Telle so quickly with a group of other candidates (Lathum, PB, and Hoops) that might be better to look into today after the events of yesterday. Although I suppose the fact that Alan was pushing for Telle needs to be considered, so I can see that too.

Lots of people are pushing for me (without much reason, from my point of view). Most of them are probably misguided villagers like Alan was. Doesn't mean much. And it's not like he was the seer or something with some secret info on me. He just had a theory, like everyone else.

[Lathum]

Others that voted for PB both days: Latham, hoopsguy, Chief Rum

.

umm, what?

[Passacaglia]

I'm going to throw out a placeholder for PB right now. I'll look back and try to get a better handle at some point, but I can't stop shaking myself off the idea that we've been wolf/wolf with these two.


VOTE PURDUEBRAD

[Telle]

umm, what?

See later.. I had a blond moment.

[claphamsa]

You know, your vote on me yesterday was pretty much a hit and run. And I don't believe you ever explained why you'd rather go that route than voting for one of the lead contenders. And today you're not offering up anything other than "Well Alan said to do it".

I thought I explain it very well. I got nothing bad from Ef (how wrong I was) Or PB... and when people started voting someone I DIDNT trust, I jumped on it. so yeah, I was wrong on EF who knows, maybe Im wrong on you and PB as well!

[Lathum]

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
4 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
6- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699), PurdueBrad (711)
2 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668)

Final Results

7 - PurdueBrad - Latham (790), hoopsguy (822), Telle (1020), Abe (1045), The Jackal (1050), Lerriuqs (1137), Chief Rum (1166)
9 - EagleFan - Alan T (951), Autumn (969), DaddyTorgo (971), dubb (1014), MartinD (1112), PackerFanatic (1123), Passacaglia (1157), PurdueBrad, Poli
1 - hoopsguy - saldana (1194)
2 - Telle - claphamsa (1285), Barkeep (1291)


OK, day 1 and 2 voting in an easy to find place

[Telle]

I thought I explain it very well. I got nothing bad from Ef (how wrong I was) Or PB... and when people started voting someone I DIDNT trust, I jumped on it. so yeah, I was wrong on EF who knows, maybe Im wrong on you and PB as well!

Your explanation-less vote on me was post 1285. I went as far back as 1151 and the closest I got to an explanation as to why you didn't vote for EF or PB was your post stating that you didn't think either "warn ti". Not a whole lot of in-depth analysis there.

And it might also be worth noting that your Day 1 vote wasn't in any of the major races either. Although I didn't search through to see if you were on much after your vote was placed.

[Lathum]

From this list people who look good

CR- late day 1 vote on EF
Dubb-Late vote day 1 on EF, also went EF day 2
PF, Pass, Poli- Late day 2 votes on EF

People who look bad-

PB- late vote on NTN day 1, forced to vote EF day 2
BK- Day 1 voted for a villager and day 2 steered clear by voting Telle

People who have steered clear

-Saldana- Voted Dubb day 1 and Hoops day2
-Clap- Voted Telle day 1 and Telle day 2

[Lathum]

Vote PB

not a fan of his voting record and I think we learn alot from this.

I don't get the Telle votes. I understand she defend someone day 1, but so far has voted PB twice and we don't know PB's alligence. I think there are better candidates.

[PurdueBrad]

I will likely vote Telle today (as I think I've stubbornly proved the previous two days) BUT a run away doesn't help us and I'm willing to give strong consideration to anyone else on my distrust list and mild consideration to anyone on my needs looked at list (and I seem to be one of the few that has never voted for Saldana in any game).

[Lathum]

I'm not a fan of Claps 2 votes for Telle. He has steered clear of any controversy by doing this and can use the defense that he strongly thinks Telle is a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Vote PB

not a fan of his voting record and I think we learn alot from this.

I don't get the Telle votes. I understand she defend someone day 1, but so far has voted PB twice and we don't know PB's alligence. I think there are better candidates.

I'm not sure if you can answer this, but....does your reasoning for voting PB today have anything to do with your reasoning for voting for him yesterday?

[PurdueBrad]

I think there are better candidates.

Lathum, you said candidates plural. Who else do you consider?

[Telle]

I'm not a fan of Claps 2 votes for Telle. He has steered clear of any controversy by doing this and can use the defense that he strongly thinks Telle is a wolf.

Actually, clap voted for PackerFanatic on Day 1, post 335.

[Lathum]

I'm not sure if you can answer this, but....does your reasoning for voting PB today have anything to do with your reasoning for voting for him yesterday?

No, I am purely voting him today based on his poor voting record

[hoopsguy]

You know, the main case against me seems to be that both days I thought that PurdueBrad was a better lynch candidate than EagleFan. Has anybody noticed that I'm FAR from being the only one to have thought this way?

Others that voted for PB both days: Latham, hoopsguy, Chief Rum

Unless you all have something more against me, I suggest you don't tunnel-vision yourselves so much that you ignore others that the exact same case could be made against.

Entirely incorrect, as I voted EF first on Day 1 and never moved from him. I was around, to some extent, during the last hour that day and would have had the option of moving to help him.

Going from memory on voting records, Chief Rum also voted EF on Day 1 and his was a later vote than mine.

I do not recall Lathum's votes from Day 1, but I know two of the three you list are incorrect.

[Lathum]

Actually, clap voted for PackerFanatic on Day 1, post 335.

my bad, either way, 2 meaningless votes looks bad to me

[Lathum]

Entirely incorrect, as I voted EF first on Day 1 and never moved from him. I was around, to some extent, during the last hour that day and would have had the option of moving to help him.

Going from memory on voting records, Chief Rum also voted EF on Day 1 and his was a later vote than mine.

I do not recall Lathum's votes from Day 1, but I know two of the three you list are incorrect.

I voted EF as well, I believe I was the 3rd and somebody unvoted him

[hoopsguy]

See later.. I had a blond moment.

Oops, looks like others have already responded to this.

I was hoping to take a look at the folks to never vote for EF this game. I don't think it is a perfect metric by any means, but it is not a terrible starting point for today. After that, taking a look at those who voted late, when EF was in jeopardy, and went in other directions. I put some of that thought into my vote analysis last night but I never pulled this out separately. I'll try to do it at some point, but my access is definitely going to be limited while visiting this client.

[Lathum]

Also- Day 1 PB had an early vote on Ef and unvoted him, then day 2 voted hoops, then unvoted hoops to vote EF when he had to, then flipped to Telle, then he had to go back to EF.

It seems so obvious he was trying to get a run on someone else.

All this is taken from hoops' lists.

[Barkeep49]

I ended up on Telle somewhat reluctantly yesterday. I can do so a little more excitedly today.

Vote Telle

[Passacaglia]

Also- Day 1 PB had an early vote on Ef and unvoted him, then day 2 voted hoops, then unvoted hoops to vote EF when he had to, then flipped to Telle, then he had to go back to EF.

It seems so obvious he was trying to get a run on someone else.

All this is taken from hoops' lists.

The flip to Telle was almost immediately after I, uh, fake-voted for her, too. I was thinking that as well.

[DaddyTorgo]

I'll say this - our wolves went 2nd-level by silencing one of their own...why do we then think they'd drop back down to first level at the next opportunity and night kill alan if telle was his top suspect?

it doesn't add up that easily to me. wayyy too cut and dried.

[hoopsguy]

I voted EF as well, I believe I was the 3rd and somebody unvoted him

That is correct, you were 3rd (putting EF at 3 votes before anyone else) and Dubb pretty quickly followed putting EF at a 4-2 lead on the pack. I'm guessing that is about the time that the wolves started sweating on that day and I would be very interested in seeing if there were unvotes on him from that point on.

I was first and stayed there.
You were third, didn't move after that point.
Dubb was fourth, didn't move after that point.
I'm pretty sure Chief was fifth, didn't move after that point, and his vote came fairly late in the day.

OK, would have to actually have the vote screen up to recall the rest. But if the person who was 2nd left their vote there all day (and there weren't late on/off votes) then we're probably looking for people who were protecting EF than people who moved on/off.

Not knowing PB's loyalties here makes this a little harder, but I'm hoping that the seer has taken time to scan him. If not, please do it soon! For now, I'm hoping that he is good and will likely be making my assumptions based on this point at least for today.

[PurdueBrad]

Also- Day 1 PB had an early vote on Ef and unvoted him, then day 2 voted hoops, then unvoted hoops to vote EF when he had to, then flipped to Telle, then he had to go back to EF.

It seems so obvious he was trying to get a run on someone else.

100% accurate. As I have stated several times, I've been trying to get over voting for a person that I view as a nemesis (this goes back two or three games when I voted hoops day 1 as a good guy and he turned out to be good too as a ton of people jumped on later). EF and Hoops are probably those two people so I tried to avoid them day 1 and then, honestly, I thought that between EF and ntn, ntn was the bad one because the only thing I had a read on was what I perceived as a save play by Telle. So on day 1, that is more than enough for me to pick one over the other. And if you look at my day 2, I either obviously believe that EF is good or I'm a pretty stupid wolf.

[hoopsguy]

I'll say this - our wolves went 2nd-level by silencing one of their own...why do we then think they'd drop back down to first level at the next opportunity and night kill alan if telle was his top suspect?

it doesn't add up that easily to me. wayyy too cut and dried.

Because they thought there were getting the seer. At least that is how I read it. And I was hoping that the BG would read it that way too, but clearly he did not.

[Passacaglia]

577 - Telle unvotes Abe, puts PB in 2nd, ahead of EF (5-4-3, Telle's vote does not move again)


So before this vote (on Day 1), we've got ntn with 5, PB with 3, and EF with 3. If EF and Telle are wolves, is the best move here really to go balls out defending ntn?

[Telle]

The second EF vote on Day 1 was from PurdueBrad. Who then moved to ntn.. to me.. to ntn.. to me.. to ntn.

[PurdueBrad]

Vote Count, as of 1573

Telle 3- Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566)
PB 2- Pass (1548), Lathum (1554)

[Lathum]

vote PurdueBrad

I finally backed off from voting him last game and I see how that ended.

Nope, didn't work.

vote Hoopsguy

Alright, I got that out of my system. I realize that consistent day one votes for a person suck. So in all seriousness:

unvote Hoopsguy

wait, wait, wait, wait.... PB says vote for hoops? must follow PB... not the voices in my head.... "NO!!!! I WON'T VOTE FOR MYSELF!!!!!"


unvote PB

vote hoops

Okay, Pass and EF are going Hoops. I'll then:

vote Eaglefan

unvote hoops

Now what to do?

vote PB

because "I am EF" ;)

unvote PB

vote Lathum

Unvote Abe
Vote EF

this is actualy for a reason.

He wanted to get a run on Hoops early, then switched numerous times finaly landing on PB, who he can claim is his standard day 1 vote.

Unvote Saldana
Vote EF

:rant:

unvote Lathum

vote PB

:devil:

I'm going to pick Purdue out of a hat. I'd rather not vote off someone who hasn't been able to play yet. In addition, he's at least someone involved in the two villager showdown.

<B>vote PURDUEBRAD</b>

I also think that Jackal is just playing his role with the vote movements early and having fun with it. So

unvote EF

vote ntndeacon

My move here is partially self-defense at this point as I would likely have to end up here anyway.


so looking back through the day 1 votes I see no was PB sn't a wolf,

It is so obvious he and EF were trying to work a way to vote each other for trust then had an O SHIT moment and once PB saw there was a run on NTN that was his chance to hope on and save EF.

I really think they fucked it up, I see no way I move my vote from PB today.

[Passacaglia]

I also think that Jackal is just playing his role with the vote movements early and having fun with it. So

unvote EF

vote ntndeacon

My move here is partially self-defense at this point as I would likely have to end up here anyway.


Here's a Day 1 vote by PB, which obviously changed as the day went on. At this point, it's EF and ntn have 4 each, and PB has 3. How is it partially self-defense to make it take it from 4/4/3 to 3/5/3? If anything, that makes PB a more viable candidate, IMO, since he's tied for 2nd. I realize that it moves him from one off the lead to two off the lead, but it also opened himself up to a three-horse race in a way, whereas with a 4/4/3 vote count, there was a good chance we'd have consolidated around just EF and ntn.

[PurdueBrad]

Is anyone else thinking we're villager/villager here?

I'm going to throw out a placeholder for PB right now. I'll look back and try to get a better handle at some point, but I can't stop shaking myself off the idea that we've been wolf/wolf with these two.


VOTE PURDUEBRAD


So Pass, you thought we were villager/villager just before deadline. Then, EF turns up bad so that now means to you that we're wolf/wolf?

Welcome to a spot very high on my distrust list. This reads like spin to now get me off.

[PurdueBrad]

See above for reason.

vote Passacaglia

[Lathum]

100% accurate. As I have stated several times, I've been trying to get over voting for a person that I view as a nemesis (this goes back two or three games when I voted hoops day 1 as a good guy and he turned out to be good too as a ton of people jumped on later). EF and Hoops are probably those two people so I tried to avoid them day 1 and then, honestly, I thought that between EF and ntn, ntn was the bad one because the only thing I had a read on was what I perceived as a save play by Telle. So on day 1, that is more than enough for me to pick one over the other. And if you look at my day 2, I either obviously believe that EF is good or I'm a pretty stupid wolf.

so you mean to tell me late in Day 1, with no knowledge of roles, you decide to switch from EF late and put the nail in NTN's coffin. This is the time you decide to let go of old nemesis'?

Not buying it.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, FWIW I think that we learn about PB if he is not targeted by a seer over the next couple of days.

His voting record sucks, I'm not disputing that at all. I've actually pointed it out a couple of times. But since we still have a seer alive I'm of the opinion that they will have to scan him at some point to help understand the earlier votes when PB's votes were so consistently bad.

Give him a day or two (we can afford it in a large game, I think) or until our seer croaks, and we can turn back to him.

I would rather focus on the people with bad voting records that were not in self-preservation mode for two straight days. Well, I would rather someone hand me a wolf on a silver platter, but if that isn't happening then I would rather look at bad voters that are not PB.

[PurdueBrad]

so you mean to tell me late in Day 1, with no knowledge of roles, you decide to switch from EF late and put the nail in NTN's coffin. This is the time you decide to let go of old nemesis'?

Not buying it.

No, I tried very hard to do it all damn day.

And I had a reason, which I've spelled out numerous fucking times (are you dense on purpose here?), to why ntn over EF and frankly, if I had to do it again on day 1, I STILL would've done it because I HAD MORE REASON. Christ all fucking mighty.

[PurdueBrad]

You guys might as well vote me 'cause I'm probably going to be an ass the rest of the way at this point anytime somebody throws any suspicion my way after what I've explained and argued the last two days.

[Lathum]

Hoops- I am going to vote for who I think is most likely to be a wolf. He has already stated he doesn't have an important role if we do lynch him.

I would rather that then key on the wrong person and lynch a more valuable role or force a reveal.

[Autumn]

I agree PB's voting record is bad. He makes a good candidate, since we'd learn a lot from finding out his allegiance one way or the other. I'm leaning toward good, as I said last night, since that analysis led me to EF.

[Lathum]

No, I tried very hard to do it all damn day.

And I had a reason, which I've spelled out numerous fucking times (are you dense on purpose here?), to why ntn over EF and frankly, if I had to do it again on day 1, I STILL would've done it because I HAD MORE REASON. Christ all fucking mighty.

And I think that reason is you knew EF was a wolf.

Based on your voting record you have no right to be this upset, and you are to smart a player to not know that. This all seems a bit to contrived for me.

[Autumn]

Well I said that before all this other analysis. I'll look at what you posted and the voting record some more, Lathum.

I'm going to be out for a good deal of the day so I want to get a solid vote down in case I don't catch up for deadline.

[Passacaglia]

So Pass, you thought we were villager/villager just before deadline. Then, EF turns up bad so that now means to you that we're wolf/wolf?

Welcome to a spot very high on my distrust list. This reads like spin to now get me off.

Heh, it reads to me like I don't know who the wolves are, and I'm trying to figure it out as we go. First of all, it's just a suspicion that we were wolf/wolf, I'm not sure of it or anything. However, it just doesn't like like any more effort was made to save EF than was made to save you, which to me means either villager/villager or wolf/wolf. If we were wolf/villager, who in your opinion was trying to save EF and get you voted out instead?

[Passacaglia]

I would rather focus on the people with bad voting records that were not in self-preservation mode for two straight days. Well, I would rather someone hand me a wolf on a silver platter, but if that isn't happening then I would rather look at bad voters that are not PB.

I understand that, hoops -- but what do you make of the fact that he defied self-preservation to switch to Telle late on Day 2? Not to mention that I think he slightly defied self-preservation in the middle of Day 1, as I posted earlier? It's one thing to excuse his votes because he needed to self-preserve, but this (so far, to me) seems worse, that he voted to save EF, even acting against self-preservation.

[DaddyTorgo]

Lathum, FWIW I think that we learn about PB if he is not targeted by a seer over the next couple of days.

His voting record sucks, I'm not disputing that at all. I've actually pointed it out a couple of times. But since we still have a seer alive I'm of the opinion that they will have to scan him at some point to help understand the earlier votes when PB's votes were so consistently bad.

Give him a day or two (we can afford it in a large game, I think) or until our seer croaks, and we can turn back to him.

I would rather focus on the people with bad voting records that were not in self-preservation mode for two straight days. Well, I would rather someone hand me a wolf on a silver platter, but if that isn't happening then I would rather look at bad voters that are not PB.

seer can't reveal, so we'll have no way of knowing if they've scanned PB or not

[Passacaglia]

No, I tried very hard to do it all damn day.

And I had a reason, which I've spelled out numerous fucking times (are you dense on purpose here?), to why ntn over EF and frankly, if I had to do it again on day 1, I STILL would've done it because I HAD MORE REASON. Christ all fucking mighty.

There's almost 1600 posts in this thread - I think it's pretty uncool to call people dense because they don't remember all of your posts. I know that I don't remember why you voted ntn at the end of Day 1 (though I'm going back through Day 1 now, so I'll probably see it). Can you just explain it again instead of being insulting?

[Passacaglia]

seer can't reveal, so we'll have no way of knowing if they've scanned PB or not

I believe the seer *can* reveal -- only roles that aren't mentioned in the rules can't reveal.

[Lathum]

seer can't reveal, so we'll have no way of knowing if they've scanned PB or not

I'm not sure thats true.

I think if you have a listed role you can reveal, just not a hidden one.

[PurdueBrad]

I believe the seer *can* reveal -- only roles that aren't mentioned in the rules can't reveal.

You want him to reveal to defend me? Christ, just vote me out.

[Passacaglia]

You want him to reveal to defend me? Christ, just vote me out.

I was just correcting DT on the rules. You need to lighten up.

[PurdueBrad]

Can you just explain it again instead of being insulting?

You know what, no. Vote me.

[Passacaglia]

You know what, no. Vote me.

I would, but I'm afraid that I would forget to unvote again, then my vote would accidentally be left on that PurdueBrad guy instead! :p

[Lathum]

You want him to reveal to defend me? Christ, just vote me out.

I've been trying to do that!

[Danny]

All listed roles can reveal

Unlisted roles can not

[PurdueBrad]

My last plea, to one of you numbers guys (likely Hoops and BK), run the odds that we were wolf-wolf-villager day 1 and the odds that we were wolf-wolf day 2 so that people can use some logic.

At this point, I'm on the verge of pulling out of thread until Monday.

[Autumn]

On the one hand I hate to waste a possible seer scan if they've already scanned PB. On the other, a lynch tonight would be a quick and dirty way to shed a lot of light on our voting records. PB has no important role if he's a villager, and having avoided one night kill and lynching one wolf we're not doing too bad. I'm not against voting PB and giving ourselves essentially a seer scan at the cost of one villager. That would allow the seer to remain unrevealed for a while longer.

However, I have to wonder, if PB was a wolf, and EF, why the Criticize on EF? Particularly since I have to assume in this scenario that PB is the more important wolf role. I can't quite get past that point.

Thinking outloud, but that last point makes me think I'll stick with my vote on Telle. Hopefully I'll get a chance to reconsider before deadline.

[Autumn]

My last plea, to one of you numbers guys (likely Hoops and BK), run the odds that we were wolf-wolf-villager day 1 and the odds that we were wolf-wolf day 2 so that people can use some logic.

At this point, I'm on the verge of pulling out of thread until Monday.

I have to point out that the two possible wolf-wolfs were the same both days, so the fact that it happened twice isn't at all surprising.

[Lathum]

My last plea, to one of you numbers guys (likely Hoops and BK), run the odds that we were wolf-wolf-villager day 1 and the odds that we were wolf-wolf day 2 so that people can use some logic.

At this point, I'm on the verge of pulling out of thread until Monday.

So last night I am deep in this poker tournament, like 30 left out of 2000. I get AJ in the BB. Small blind min raises and I reraise. He calls. Flop comes J J A, pretty sweet, flop a boat. He bets out, I reraise and he puts me all in, obviously thinking I am making a move. I call and show my boat. He has KQ suited for flush and straight draws, neither good for him because I already made the boat. Guess what the next 2 cards are. King and a King giving him a bigger full house. Do you know what the odds of that are?

[Abe Sargent]

Man, it takes forever to catch up on all of this stuff. Is anyone else having difficulty keeping up with the pace of this game? Is it just me?

[PackerFanatic]

Wow, Lathum...that is just downright unlucky.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm sorry, did you think I was talking to you regarding the odds Lathum? Sorry, no, wasn't.

[PackerFanatic]

Man, it takes forever to catch up on all of this stuff. Is anyone else having difficulty keeping up with the pace of this game? Is it just me?

It's going a little fast, but I was also gone all night last night - doesn't seem much worse than other games.

[Lathum]

However, I have to wonder, if PB was a wolf, and EF, why the Criticize on EF? Particularly since I have to assume in this scenario that PB is the more important wolf role. I can't quite get past that point.

.

The criticize of EF points me to the conclusion that we were even more likely wolf-wolf. That move reeks of desperation

[Lathum]

I'm sorry, did you think I was talking to you regarding the odds Lathum? Sorry, no, wasn't.

So I'm not allowed to respond then?

I'm sorry, frustration or not, you are way to nice a guy to be acting like this. It all seems to contrived. And if it's not you are off my Xmas card list.

[Lathum]

Wow, Lathum...that is just downright unlucky.

yeah, considering there were only 30 people left in the tourny, I would have been close to the chipleader.

[Abe Sargent]

It's going a little fast, but I was also gone all night last night - doesn't seem much worse than other games.

30 pages of posts by the end of Day Two? that doesn't seem fast to you?

[PurdueBrad]

Nah, not that nice a guy obviously. I'm pissed at myself for wasting two days this game and now this morning. I'm out, start the run.

[hoopsguy]

My last plea, to one of you numbers guys (likely Hoops and BK), run the odds that we were wolf-wolf-villager day 1 and the odds that we were wolf-wolf day 2 so that people can use some logic.

At this point, I'm on the verge of pulling out of thread until Monday.

The problem with running those numbers is that it is not in a vacuum. We already have wolf/villager revealed, so I think it is just a matter of probability that you are wolf/villager based on assumptions on their numbers.

Assuming 4 starting wolves, out of 21, with EF already revealed, that leaves 3 of 20 = 15%.

Again, Day 2 we already have a wolf in the mix so it is 3 of 19, or just a bit higher than 15% (don't have Calc open).

I'm all for math for solving problems, but I don't think that the context you are proposing (that we don't know NTN = villager and EF = wolf) makes all that much sense.

[saldana]

So last night I am deep in this poker tournament, like 30 left out of 2000. I get AJ in the BB. Small blind min raises and I reraise. He calls. Flop comes J J A, pretty sweet, flop a boat. He bets out, I reraise and he puts me all in, obviously thinking I am making a move. I call and show my boat. He has KQ suited for flush and straight draws, neither good for him because I already made the boat. Guess what the next 2 cards are. King and a King giving him a bigger full house. Do you know what the odds of that are?

probably about the same as you bothering to call or text me to tell me not to bother to wait for you to roll last night since you were playing poker instead of WoW?

[Passacaglia]

heh, I just realized that PB isn't even in the lead right now -- Telle is up on him 3-2.

[Lathum]

probably about the same as you bothering to call or text me to tell me not to bother to wait for you to roll last night since you were playing poker instead of WoW?

umm, are you my wife or something? ;)

Unless you were up playing WoW at 2 AM I think it's irrelevant.

[saldana]

So I'm not allowed to respond then?

I'm sorry, frustration or not, you are way to nice a guy to be acting like this. It all seems to contrived. And if it's not you are off my Xmas card list.

i agree that PB's frustration, which is totally understandable...i have been in the same spot you are in now and wanted to kill everyone...does seem out of character for what I know of him as a normally a level headed, easy going dude (but i also havent been around much lately)

i dont necessary know if i would call it contrived.

perhaps this will make him fee better.

vote telle

[Telle]

Well it certainly doesn't make ME feel better.

[Lathum]

I realize according to PB I'm dense, but I must have missed why people suspect Telle. I just don't see it.

[PackerFanatic]

30 pages of posts by the end of Day Two? that doesn't seem fast to you?

True - but these games always have a lot of posts, I just come to expect it I suppose.

[Autumn]

Anyway, I'm off for now.

[Autumn]

The problem with running those numbers is that it is not in a vacuum. We already have wolf/villager revealed, so I think it is just a matter of probability that you are wolf/villager based on assumptions on their numbers.

Assuming 4 starting wolves, out of 21, with EF already revealed, that leaves 3 of 20 = 15%.

I think we clearly have at least five starting wolves, plus the sympathizer. EF had a non-listed role.

[Telle]

Vote count as of #1620:

4 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)

[Autumn]

I'm eager to see some more votes today. I'm not crazy about the company I'm keeping at this moment, and maybe I'm on the wrong person.

Okay, off for real now.

[Autumn]

Didn't purdue vote pass?

[Telle]

Didn't purdue vote pass?

Thank you I missed that. He did in post #1578.

[Danny]

Vote count as of #1620:

4 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)
1 - Pass - PurdueBrad (1578)

[Passacaglia]

Didn't purdue vote pass?

Yeah, he did. Which is odd that I made it so high on his distrust list, since he was so willing to follow my thoughts yesterday. Looking through Day 2, I noticed this:


1016 - Pass follows BK on hoops (same logic as BK, 2nd bad vote for him, not his last vote)
1017 - PB follows on hoops (once again foregoing an opportunity to vote for EF, tally is now 4-3-2 EF/Me/PB)
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF (puts wolf in lead, would be huge vote except for #1256)
1169 - PB unvotes hoops, votes EF (self-defense, good vote)
1256 - Pass forgets to unvotes, casts vote for Telle (important because his vote was on EF, which was critical down the stretch but it does not seem he wanted his vote there)
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle (puts himself up 2, Telle is way back)


Thoughts?

[The Jackal]

What is the case against Telle, exactly? I remember people were throwing her around as a candidate yesterday afternoon but there's too many pages for me to go digging.

[Passacaglia]

What is the case against Telle, exactly? I remember people were throwing her around as a candidate yesterday afternoon but there's too many pages for me to go digging.

Page 26 is where I "started" the votes for her on Day 2. Poli mentioned her, based on PB saying something was weird about her reaction with ntn on Day 1. However, PB doesn't have his vote on her now, even though it would help his self-preservation (of course, it's probably too early to worry about that).

[hoopsguy]

I'm also kind of curious about the case on Telle. She had posted that she thought NTN was getting a raw deal on Day 1, which was part of the notion to introduce a 3rd candidate alongside NTN/EF. However, if she was posting on behalf of NTN while trying to save EF then that is a pretty nuanced play. Bravo if that is what happened, but my take on it was that she was playing it the way she stated in the thread.

I'm hoping to be around most of the afternoon to look at voting records, but I don't recall Telle doing anything highly noteworthy in either direction on this end. Back to meetings ...

[Telle]

What is the case against Telle, exactly? I remember people were throwing her around as a candidate yesterday afternoon but there's too many pages for me to go digging.

It started with PurdueBrad thinking I was protecting ntn.. but then ntn came up good. So then it was speculated that maybe I was protecting EF. Both days I didn't like the cases against EF and decided to go PB instead. But lots of other people didn't vote for EF either. So, I dunno why people think I'm the worst out of the bunch.

[Poli]

Poli- listened to me on back-to-back days despite me being bad and him good last game. He put that aside and seems to follow logic rather than getting caught up.

Autumn- Same as Poli, minus some of the fun, dramatic Poli moves.

Following logic - that might be the first time anyone's said that about me.

Fun, dramatic Poli - That sounds more like it.

[Poli]

Vote Telle

Seems like the right move to me.

[The Jackal]

Vote Telle

Seems like the right move to me.

Why does it seem like the right move?

[Telle]

As of post #1633:

5 - Telle - claphamsa (1532), Autumn (1535), Barkeep (1566), saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
2 - PurdueBrad - Passacaglia (1548), Latham (1554)
1 - Passacaglia - PurdeuBrad (1578)

[Poli]

Why does it seem like the right move?
I haven't been a fan of Telle's responses since I saw her jockeying around PB a few days back.

[The Jackal]

I don't have strong feelings towards voting for PB or Telle, so I'm going to vote for someone who's posts have been pinging me. I'll switch if this doesn't develop but maybe someone else feels similarly.

He voted NTN day one and put a vote on EF putting him in a 6-5 vote lead yesterday, but also before PB had switched onto EF, so could've been a necessary wolf on wolf there.

VOTE PF

[Poli]

I don't get the Pass vote, though. Whether he intended to or not, he played a critical role in the lynch of EF.

[Poli]

I can't recall a single PF post in the game, actually.

[The Jackal]

I can't recall a single PF post in the game, actually.

He has a fair few, but he's been quiet enough. Not like this game is deep in or anything, though.

[Lathum]

He voted NTN day one and put a vote on EF putting him in a 6-5 vote lead yesterday, but also before PB had switched onto EF, so could've been a necessary wolf on wolf there.



If you think it was wolf-wolf yesterday why not just vote for PB?

[PackerFanatic]

I can't recall a single PF post in the game, actually.

You know, I was just going to mention that - I have barely posted this game, haha.

[The Jackal]

If you think it was wolf-wolf yesterday why not just vote for PB?

No I mean wolf-wolf as in PF on EF. That would be assuming PB is good - if they're both wolves then it doesn't really matter, but I lean towards PB not being a wolf.

[The Jackal]

But I do understand and sympathize with the need to know whether or not PB is good for better vote analysis.

[Passacaglia]

I don't get the Pass vote, though. Whether he intended to or not, he played a critical role in the lynch of EF.

I don't really see that -- I really intended to unvote EF, and I don't think I should be moved up a notch just because I flubbed it. And I think intent is more important than where my vote actually got recorded in the end.

[The Jackal]

That was a poor choice of words, don't take that to mean I'm the sympathizer or anything.

[Poli]

I don't really see that -- I really intended to unvote EF, and I don't think I should be moved up a notch just because I flubbed it. And I think intent is more important than where my vote actually got recorded in the end.
Yeah, I was rethinking that as well.

[Passacaglia]

Yeah, I was rethinking that as well.

But it's still a bad vote, since I'm good! :)

[Poli]

lol

[Chief Rum]

You know, the main case against me seems to be that both days I thought that PurdueBrad was a better lynch candidate than EagleFan. Has anybody noticed that I'm FAR from being the only one to have thought this way?

Others that voted for PB both days: Latham, hoopsguy, Chief Rum

Unless you all have something more against me, I suggest you don't tunnel-vision yourselves so much that you ignore others that the exact same case could be made against.

I never voted for PB on Day One.

[Chief Rum]

Oh shit.. I was looking in the wrong column in my notes. NEVERMIND!!

Heh...self corrected. Ignore me above.

[MartinD]

I'm not sure about who I want to vote for today, so am going to go with the tactic of picking on someone who hasn't posted much to this point...

VOTE LERRIUQS

I realise that it's a bit rich for me to do this, given that I'm fast developing a reputation as someone who doesn't post all that much, but this is very much a placeholder vote at this point (and an effort to get lerriuqs a bit more involved in the game) than a vote backed up by something I've seen or any intuition.

The easy play right now (in my opinion) would be to jump on the bandwagon with Telle's name on it - while I do have some suspicion of Telle (some of her earlier posts didn't sit quite right with me - can't back it up right now, as I don't have time to go through previous posts at the moment) I'm not sure that I feel strongly enough to put the front-runner further out on their own.

I will be back on later, and am very likely to change this placeholder vote.

[Barkeep49]

Man, it takes forever to catch up on all of this stuff. Is anyone else having difficulty keeping up with the pace of this game? Is it just me?

Oh my god am I having problems.

[claphamsa]

did we break for the weekend already?

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not feeling strongly inclined to vote for telle.

although it's probably too late given how friday afternoon and evening deadlines go, i'd love to see some action this afternoon and uncover some more info

[Danny]

So should I run the night deadline tonight or on Sunday?

[Alan T]

So should I run the night deadline tonight or on Sunday?

Be spontaneous, run it in 12 minutes from now!

[DaddyTorgo]

i think you have to ask the wolves that danny - we are the ones trying to uncover them after all

[The Jackal]

So should I run the night deadline tonight or on Sunday?

I would say run it tonight so everyone gets to think about what's happened over the weekend.

[Danny]

Be spontaneous, run it in 12 minutes from now!

ooh I like this, you guys better get those actions in ;)

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I want to make sure I get a vote in. I do not feel we learn as much from Telle as we do PB at this point.

[Danny]

While all of you are feeling cozy going about your day deciding who no longer needs therapy, the foul stench of death creeps over your noses. Oh no, has someone else died?
You all follow the smell to the corner of the room where a blanket appears to be covering a body. Just then Claphamsa pulls the sheet off and lying face down it is
…
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The remains of AlanT again! Apparently one of you nutties has a fascination with dead bodies and brought him back in from the morgue. I hope it is only coincidence that Alan T’s dead body was lying on its stomach.

[The Jackal]

Uh, weird.

[The Jackal]

Ellipses edited for dramatic effect? haha

[Danny]

Uh, weird.

One of you sure is, that's for sure

[Passacaglia]

UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD
VOTE CORPSE OF ALAN T

[Danny]

I think some of you just didn't want to see him go :)

[Passacaglia]

UNVOTE CORPSE OF ALAN T
VOTE PURDUEBRAD


So seriously...is that in any way actually related to the game?

[Danny]

UNVOTE CORPSE OF ALAN T
VOTE PURDUEBRAD


So seriously...is that in any way actually related to the game?

No related in anyway whatsoever, just playing off of Alan T's suggestion to run the night phase in 12 minutes. Plus it's slow, so I wasn't interrupting anything

[Lathum]

I would say run it tonight so everyone gets to think about what's happened over the weekend.

That;s how I plan on spending my weekend!

[Danny]

You guys better spend the weekend playing, thinking, fanatsizing or something about my game

[hoopsguy]

OK, seems like a really dull day so far. Time to catch up on votes and start working on where I want to go wth my vote.

[Danny]

OK, seems like a really dull day so far. Time to catch up on votes and start working on where I want to go wth my vote.

Apparently finding defiled corpses is dull to you :eek:

[dubb93]

Is the logic for Telle still that she may have been protecting a villager in NtN? Now that EF is out as a wolf that seems like even sillier logic that if Telle is a wolf she would have been protecting NtN rather than EF. If the reasons for the Telle vote has more going for it please fill me in.

[Passacaglia]

OK, seems like a really dull day so far. Time to catch up on votes and start working on where I want to go wth my vote.

I actually could rant some more, but I figure that I've mostly made my point, and I'd give people a chance to catch up.

[Passacaglia]

Is the logic for Telle still that she may have been protecting a villager in NtN? Now that EF is out as a wolf that seems like even sillier logic that if Telle is a wolf she would have been protecting NtN rather than EF. If the reasons for the Telle vote has more going for it please fill me in.

I believe the thinking is that she knew ntn was a villager and chose to defend him so that she would look better when he came up good. However, I think the fact that EF was a wolf and at risk of getting lynched himself makes that a hard sell, IMO.

[Passacaglia]

hoops, while you're around -- do you know how hard it would be to get tickets to Michigan @ Illinois on 10/31? I'm trying to decide between buying Michigan season tickets and selling like 6 of them, or taking the easier route and just seeing them at Memorial Stadium, where I've never been.

[dubb93]

I'm close to just voting PB out of spite. He went into the vent thread, vented, then edited it with reasons of "Cleaned up out of respect for BK as a mod (and no, he didn't ask me to)."

[Passacaglia]

I'm close to just voting PB out of spite. He went into the vent thread, vented, then edited it with reasons of "Cleaned up out of respect for BK as a mod (and no, he didn't ask me to)."

I don't think there's any rules against editing in the vent thread.

[hoopsguy]

I think we clearly have at least five starting wolves, plus the sympathizer. EF had a non-listed role.

Rules suggest that not all wolf roles have to be listed. Could certainly be five, but I'm not ruling out 4 + Sympathizer just yet unless someone has seen something I haven't.

[hoopsguy]

Er, not all listed wolf roles have to be in game.

[dubb93]

I don't think there's any rules against editing in the vent thread.

No, but he seems dead set on dieing and is really starting to piss me off the way he has acted in here today and then the way he acted in the vent thread.

[hoopsguy]

hoops, while you're around -- do you know how hard it would be to get tickets to Michigan @ Illinois on 10/31? I'm trying to decide between buying Michigan season tickets and selling like 6 of them, or taking the easier route and just seeing them at Memorial Stadium, where I've never been.

Probably can get them without too much effort. I think the Illini sold out most of their games last year after going to Rose Bowl previous year. But traditionally the stadium is not sold out every week and I don't think there is a ton of buzz around the program this year.

[dubb93]

I'm actually not sold on PB or Telle at this point. I think I am going to go a different direction.

Vote Saldana

Threw his vote away on me on day 1, then on day 2 voted EF, but switched off to Hoops once EF was in the lead dropping it down to a tie. I'm not a fan of his vote record at all.

[hoopsguy]

Voting action through Post #1683:

Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
PB - Pass (1548), Lathum (1554), PF (1661)
Pass - PB (1578)
PF - Jackal (1637)
Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs

[PurdueBrad]

No, but he seems dead set on dieing and is really starting to piss me off the way he has acted in here today and then the way he acted in the vent thread.

Go for it. Look, here's an explanation for "the way [I've] acted in here today." I have 200 posts, most defending myself. A simple search turned up 39 posts that stated the exact piece of information that I was being asked to repeat again. Did I really need to repeat it for a 40'th time? And, since I have no role of real power, do I really have anything to add at this time? Hopefully that gets my frustration across.

[hoopsguy]

I'm actually not sold on PB or Telle at this point. I think I am going to go a different direction.

Vote Saldana

Threw his vote away on me on day 1, then on day 2 voted EF, but switched off to Hoops once EF was in the lead dropping it down to a tie. I'm not a fan of his vote record at all.

I think this is a better vote today than PB. And I understand this vote more than I do the logic on Telle.

[Passacaglia]

I don't think there is a ton of buzz around the program this year.

Sounds familiar over here, and is probably the only reason I'm able to buy season tickets this year without making a donation (which probably means I won't be able to scalp the tickets for games I'm not going to with any kind of ease, either). The Michigan Ticket Office said they weren't sure if they would have tickets to sell yet, but maybe I'll find out when Illinois starts selling their single-game tickets.

[saldana]

I'm actually not sold on PB or Telle at this point. I think I am going to go a different direction.

Vote Saldana

Threw his vote away on me on day 1, then on day 2 voted EF, but switched off to Hoops once EF was in the lead dropping it down to a tie. I'm not a fan of his vote record at all.


not entirely unexpected...my vote record is trash, especially yesterday.

as far as day one goes...i voted for you the same way you voted for me, then took my kids to the park and forgot to come back and see if it was necessary to change to a target that was actually in the run-off.

[claphamsa]

Go for it. Look, here's an explanation for "the way [I've] acted in here today." I have 200 posts, most defending myself. A simple search turned up 39 posts that stated the exact piece of information that I was being asked to repeat again. Did I really need to repeat it for a 40'th time? And, since I have no role of real power, do I really have anything to add at this time? Hopefully that gets my frustration across.
you frustration has been gotten across :)

[Passacaglia]

I think this is a better vote today than PB. And I understand this vote more than I do the logic on Telle.

Why do you think this is a better vote than PB? I might be convinced to join the newly-forming saldana bandwagon, and if you've got a reason that a vote for sal is better, I'm all ears.

[hoopsguy]

1. Claphamsa D1: PackerFanatic D2: Telle
2. EagleFan - Evil Information Collector, Lynched Day 2
3. Barkeep D1: NTN D2: Telle
4. The Jackal D1: NTN D2: PB
5. Abe D1: NTN D2: PB
6. PackerFanatic D1: NTN D2: EF
7. Hoopsguy D1: EF D2: PB
8. PurdueBrad D1: NTN D2: EF
9. Lathum D1: EF D2: PB
10. Martin D D1: PB D2: EF
11. Poli D1: Abe D2: EF
12. Passacaglia D1: NTN D2: EF
13. Lerriuqs D1: Pass D2: no vote
14. Dubb93 D1: EF D2: EF
15. Autumn D1: Telle D2: EF
16. Chief Rum D1: EF D2: PB
17. NTNDeacon - The Talker, Lynched Day 1
18. Telle D1: PB D2: PB
19. DaddyTorgo D1: no vote D2: EF
20. AlanT - The Arbitrator, Night kill Day 2
21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops

OK, here is first-level thinking on EF - the people who have not voted for him either day. Note that I do not think that this is at all a perfect list, but I'm hoping the 2nd level list is a little more revealing:
1. Clap
3. Barkeep
4. Jackal
5. Abe
13. Lerriuqs
18. Telle
21. Saldana

[Passacaglia]

hoops, I think it's only fair to include me on that list, since I meant to vote Telle Day 2.

[hoopsguy]

Why do you think this is a better vote than PB? I might be convinced to join the newly-forming saldana bandwagon, and if you've got a reason that a vote for sal is better, I'm all ears.

Lathum, FWIW I think that we learn about PB if he is not targeted by a seer over the next couple of days.

His voting record sucks, I'm not disputing that at all. I've actually pointed it out a couple of times. But since we still have a seer alive I'm of the opinion that they will have to scan him at some point to help understand the earlier votes when PB's votes were so consistently bad.

Give him a day or two (we can afford it in a large game, I think) or until our seer croaks, and we can turn back to him.

I would rather focus on the people with bad voting records that were not in self-preservation mode for two straight days. Well, I would rather someone hand me a wolf on a silver platter, but if that isn't happening then I would rather look at bad voters that are not PB.

Pass, I've pulled my PB/today thoughts from earlier to answer your question.

[hoopsguy]

hoops, I think it's only fair to include me on that list, since I meant to vote Telle Day 2.

Level 2 list is going to try and dig a little deeper - timing of votes, unvotes, etc.

[Passacaglia]

Level 2 list is going to try and dig a little deeper - timing of votes, unvotes, etc.

Ha! Have fun with that one!

[Passacaglia]

Pass, I've pulled my PB/today thoughts from earlier to answer your question.

Thanks...sorry to make you repeat yourself.

[hoopsguy]

No worries, lots of posts over course of the game. Heck, lots of posts even if you were just searching for mine.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, really need spreadsheet format for Level 2 post, as it is going to be messy otherwise.

[Passacaglia]

No worries, lots of posts over course of the game. Heck, lots of posts even if you were just searching for mine.

Anyway, you're not worried about the possibility of him being the cunning?

[dubb93]

I'm heading off here for a while. Instead of just posting to be posting I think I'd rather play some Drakensang.

[Abe Sargent]

Vote PurdueBrad

We need to figure this thing out and get past it.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, you're not worried about the possibility of him being the cunning?

Probably not any more than any other player. He begged for a scan last night but didn't make a peep about it after Day 1 when he could have made a case for it when I was publicly asking for the seer to scan EF. If they were wolves together then it obviously would have been their preference to have PB scanned instead of EF.

[PurdueBrad]

Anyway, look. I'm sorry to anyone I've offended or pissed off but I have to defend myself to the hilt not one, not two, but now the start of a third straight day. Common sense would say that I have likely been scanned by now and no seer has jumped up and down yelling wolf. But even a cleared scan doesn't help me, as Pass is already laying the cunning groundwork.

I've really fought off the urge to just say "I'm a wolf" to get it over with even though I'm not. But so far I'm not. But for defending myself the rest of the day or even defending myself the rest of the game, I'm not. I don't think this is a lay down and die play...I am completely spent of information, what else can I possibly have or know. And frankly, if I do get any info, I'm not even allowed to reveal it.

It's Friday, I should be in a much better mood, these last two and a half days here have ruined that (first time that has really happened from other people, happened once early simply due to me making a stupid play as a villager and costing us a game).

All that, there, I'm sure you care.

[Passacaglia]

Probably not any more than any other player. He begged for a scan last night but didn't make a peep about it after Day 1 when he could have made a case for it when I was publicly asking for the seer to scan EF. If they were wolves together then it obviously would have been their preference to have PB scanned instead of EF.

I'm not sure I follow.

[Passacaglia]

Anyway, look. I'm sorry to anyone I've offended or pissed off but I have to defend myself to the hilt not one, not two, but now the start of a third straight day. Common sense would say that I have likely been scanned by now and no seer has jumped up and down yelling wolf. But even a cleared scan doesn't help me, as Pass is already laying the cunning groundwork.

I've really fought off the urge to just say "I'm a wolf" to get it over with even though I'm not. But so far I'm not. But for defending myself the rest of the day or even defending myself the rest of the game, I'm not. I don't think this is a lay down and die play...I am completely spent of information, what else can I possibly have or know. And frankly, if I do get any info, I'm not even allowed to reveal it.

It's Friday, I should be in a much better mood, these last two and a half days here have ruined that (first time that has really happened from other people, happened once early simply due to me making a stupid play as a villager and costing us a game).

All that, there, I'm sure you care.

I'm sorry if I offended you, too -- I'm just playing a game here. But I don't think that there's nothing you can do. If you're a villager, you're in the unique position, well unique for us villagers, of *knowing* that we were villager/wolf last night. Does that information lead you toward anyone? Is that why your vote is on me, rather than purely out of spite?

[hoopsguy]

Pass, at the end of Day 1 I posted in the thread that I though the seer should scan EF so we understood the voting results. Now, in fact D1 was a three horse race, with EF/NTN/PB although PB came up a little further back at the very end. But he was lead vote getter, by a two vote margin I believe, in the late afternoon.

If PB+EF are wolves together, and PB = cunning, then they CLEARLY would want to have PB scanned instead of EF. No one offered any other scan suggestions in the thread during the night phase. I would expect that either PB or one of the other wolves might have suggested "don't forget about PB, he might be a good scan target too!" to at least put another idea out there for the seer.

That did not happen. Because of this, I think it is a little less likely that PB is the cunning wolf who managed to attract a N2 scan and is moving towards trusted status.

Is it possible? Sure, I guess. But I'll play percentages every time on cunning wolf/seer scans. Cleared by seer > not cleared by seer.

And if the seer has not scanned PB by the end of N3 then I don't know what to tell him/her.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, at the end of Day 1 I posted in the thread that I though the seer should scan EF so we understood the voting results. Now, in fact D1 was a three horse race, with EF/NTN/PB although PB came up a little further back at the very end. But he was lead vote getter, by a two vote margin I believe, in the late afternoon.

If PB+EF are wolves together, and PB = cunning, then they CLEARLY would want to have PB scanned instead of EF. No one offered any other scan suggestions in the thread during the night phase. I would expect that either PB or one of the other wolves might have suggested "don't forget about PB, he might be a good scan target too!" to at least put another idea out there for the seer.

That did not happen. Because of this, I think it is a little less likely that PB is the cunning wolf who managed to attract a N2 scan and is moving towards trusted status.

Is it possible? Sure, I guess. But I'll play percentages every time on cunning wolf/seer scans. Cleared by seer > not cleared by seer.

And if the seer has not scanned PB by the end of N3 then I don't know what to tell him/her.

I hear ya on that. How was the fact that he begged for a scan on Night 2 involved, though?

[PurdueBrad]

Is that why your vote is on me, rather than purely out of spite?

No actually, it's what I saw as the illogical flip from saying you felt we were V-V the night before but as soon as EF is a wolf, thinking we must have been W-W. And the intended EF unvote.

As for who I see, my list, which is posted a few times:

Poli, Lathum, Autumn I trust

Saldana, Martin D need a look

Pass, Hoops, Telle, Abe, Jackal are distrust

[Passacaglia]

No actually, it's what I saw as the illogical flip from saying you felt we were V-V the night before but as soon as EF is a wolf, thinking we must have been W-W. And the intended EF unvote.

As for who I see, my list, which is posted a few times:

Poli, Lathum, Autumn I trust

Saldana, Martin D need a look

Pass, Hoops, Telle, Abe, Jackal are distrust

Hey...I already fucking EXPLAINED why I changed my mind on that. So there. :p

[hoopsguy]

PB, have you even read what I've posted today? I'm probably arguing harder for you than anyone in the room. I also backed you on Day 1.

Sorry you are having a tough game, getting heat, whatever. Guess what - it happens that way sometimes. End the pity party and get back into the game. Oh, and it probably wouldn't hurt to actually check your assumptions at some point instead of operating with "tunnel vision".

[hoopsguy]

I hear ya on that. How was the fact that he begged for a scan on Night 2 involved, though?

I can understand being super-frustrated with a game and wanting to change up the atmosphere.

As a villager, begging for a scan isn't optimal because it keeps the seer from being able to find a wolf. But I honestly don't think that PB has been at his most rational most of this game. In poker terms, I think he is on uber-monkey-tilt.

[Passacaglia]

A lot of people in the thread, but not many interested in chatting.


Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)


I know others have said it, but I'm also not seeing the reasoning on the Telle vote. For you guys that are in the thread now -- what do you think of the *voters* on Telle (since I don't expect to get more reasoning on why Telle has been chosen anymore at this point)?

[PurdueBrad]

PB, have you even read what I've posted today? I'm probably arguing harder for you than anyone in the room. I also backed you on Day 1.

Sorry you are having a tough game, getting heat, whatever. Guess what - it happens that way sometimes. End the pity party and get back into the game. Oh, and it probably wouldn't hurt to actually check your assumptions at some point instead of operating with "tunnel vision".

Actually, from a tunnel vision standpoint, I've broadened my horizons from just Telle to Telle and you to Telle and Abe and you and Pass and Jackal. So I'm not really locked in on anybody.

As for pity, no such luck. I would say apathy, or at least an attempt to get to apathy.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey...I already fucking EXPLAINED why I changed my mind on that. So there. :p

Didn't ask you to re-explain anything.

I don't expect to explain something and have you immediately believe it, just don't consistently ask me to repeat the same information a couple dozen times.

[hoopsguy]

Here is the more advanced version of vote analysis from the first two days, based on my interpretations:

1. Claphamsa D1: PackerFanatic D2: Telle Unvotes: PB (D2 early) Timing: throwaway vote late D2 (Telle five back, inside of last 20-30 minutes) rather than voting one of lead dogs.

2. EagleFan - Evil Information Collector, Lynched Day 2

3. Barkeep D1: NTN D2: Telle Unvotes: Hoops (D2), PB (D2 late) Timing: PB move in last hour, moving vote from 8-7 PB to 7-7 PB/EF. This is marginally better than I recall last night, as it indirectly increased pressure on EF.

4. The Jackal D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: EF Timing: middle of D3, changes to PB 3 posts later and margin goes from 5EF - 4PB to 4EF - 5PB. He looks worse now than I recalled last night with no end votes on EF and an unvote on EF yesterday.

5. Abe D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote tied up PB with EF at 4-4. Links himself through trust to BK at least twice in thread.

6. PackerFanatic D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1) Timing: no real meaning to discern from D1 vote change. D2 vote on EF was meaningful (7-6 margin).

7. Hoopsguy D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: both pretty early votes, no moves to save EF on D1, no moves to hang EF on D2.

8. PurdueBrad D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Hoops (D1, D2), EF (D1, D2), NTN (D1), Telle (D1) Timing: all kind of late vote changes, not always optimal for survival until last five minutes. Can certainly make a case that he was trying to help EF based on D1 NTN late call and D2 late movement away from EF to anyone offered as an option

9. Lathum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: Poli (D1), Abe (D1) Timing: pretty insignificant vote moves, early in day. Erratic play on D2 hard to understand, but suggests alternate win conditions

10. Martin D D1: PB D2: EF Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote on EF was meaningful.

11. Poli D1: Abe D2: EF Unvotes: Lathum (D1), Telle (D1, D2), PB (D2) Timing: had multiple chances to put vote on EF on Day 2, did not until very end of day. This looks like one of the worst voting records of the people who have an EF final vote to their name.

12. Passacaglia D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1), Hoops (D1 + D2), EF (D2 - sort of) Timing; NTN votes on D1 tied it back up at 4-4 (he had voted No Lynch, then put vote back where it was when learning it was not a good option). His EF vote on D2 is muted by the fact that he illegally attempted to move his vote, failing to unvote when casting a vote for Telle. Another one of the weaker voting records with a EF vote to their name.

13. Lerriuqs D1: Pass D2: no vote Unvotes: None Timing: Day 2 vote on PB tied it at 7-7, not a good vote based on current information. Day 1 vote cast early, never revisited.

14. Dubb93 D1: EF D2: EF Unvotes: Saldana (D1), PB (D2) Timing: both unvotes came pretty early, both votes on EF were meaningful based on timing, no unvotes down stretch to help EF either time. Very good vote history.

15. Autumn D1: Telle D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D1) Timing: D2 vote on EF is strong, helping create two man race with PB. D1 unvote was very PB-friendly, moving him out of 2 vote lead to throw vote on distant candidate. One of drivers of potential 3rd candidate on Day 1.

16. Chief Rum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D1 vote was a big one against EF, D2 vote was a big one for EF. Has floated a couple of theories this game that have been dubious (EF/NTN voters with one wolf each early on, wolves would not block their own which was false on D2)

17. NTNDeacon - The Talker, Lynched Day 1

18. Telle D1: PB D2: PB Unvotes: Abe (D1) Timing: 2nd driver (w/Autumn) of 3rd candidate on D1 when there was a wolf in the mix. No good votes to help cause. Her votes have been early enough to not be magnified.

19. DaddyTorgo D1: no vote D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D2) Timing: Vote change on D2 looks good, but felt like he was looking for excessive credit for doing so when others were initial movers and shakers on EF.

20. AlanT - The Arbitrator, Night kill Day 2

21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops Unvotes: EF (D2) Timing: pretty late unvote on EF brought race back to an 8-8 tie. D1 vote was more or less throwaway on likely villager.

[PurdueBrad]

Can certainly make a case that he was trying to help EF based on D1 NTN late call and D2 late movement away from EF to anyone offered as an option

No case to be made, I admit to trying to help him. Completely misguided but I tried 110% to help him.

[PurdueBrad]

No case to be made, I admit to trying to help him. Completely misguided but I tried 110% to help him.

And before it is asked again, I did it because I was trying to be more open-minded towards people I typically have a bias against and, again, I had a read, perceived or other-wise, on a Telle-ntn save dynamic.

[Passacaglia]

Didn't ask you to re-explain anything.

I don't expect to explain something and have you immediately believe it, just don't consistently ask me to repeat the same information a couple dozen times.

So the issue is that you don't believe me? I had to change to something when EF died, since believing that we were villager/villager afterward would not have been wise. It seems more like you are taking issue with what I changed my thought to.

[hoopsguy]

From there, here is my trust list right now. I think you can take this to suggest I'm not wild about the current vote count.

Trust:
Dubb, Autumn, MartinD, PackerFanatic

Slight Above Norm:
Lathum

Neutral:
Chief Rum, Pass, PurdueBrad, MommyTorgo

Nervous:
Telle, Poli, Abe

Distrust:
Saldana, Jackal, Clap

Need more from:
Lerriuqs, Barkeep

[PurdueBrad]

So the issue is that you don't believe me? I had to change to something when EF died, since believing that we were villager/villager afterward would not have been wise. It seems more like you are taking issue with what I changed my thought to.

I don't know what the logical answer to not being VV is that we must have been WW. But frankly.

unvote pass

[Passacaglia]

All right, we are talking around some circles here. Let's move some stuff around:


UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD
VOTE SALDANA

[hoopsguy]

VOTE THE JACKAL

I'll almost certainly move this to another candidate if we can't get some momentum going but I really would prefer not to see PB voted out today. Tomorrow? Maybe.

[PurdueBrad]

That should read:

I don't why the logical answer...

[Passacaglia]

Heh, it reads to me like I don't know who the wolves are, and I'm trying to figure it out as we go. First of all, it's just a suspicion that we were wolf/wolf, I'm not sure of it or anything. However, it just doesn't like like any more effort was made to save EF than was made to save you, which to me means either villager/villager or wolf/wolf. If we were wolf/villager, who in your opinion was trying to save EF and get you voted out instead?

PB, here's post 1587, where I explained my reasoning about why I went from thinking we were v/v to thinking we're w/w. If you have any questions about it, let me know.

[Lathum]

anyone have a vote count?

I'm to dense to do one

[PurdueBrad]

Appreciated Pass, remembered the explanation, just doesn't mean I agree.

[hoopsguy]

anyone have a vote count?

I'm to dense to do one


Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
PB - Lathum (1554), PF (1661), Abe (1702)
PF - Jackal (1637)
Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
Saldana - Dubb (1684), Pass (1722)
Jackal - Hoops (1723)
1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal

[PurdueBrad]

I'm to dense to do one

And why do you think I rarely do one.

[Passacaglia]

Appreciated Pass, remembered the explanation, just doesn't mean I agree.

That's cool -- since you said you didn't know why that was the logical answer, I just figured I'd remind you. :) So...if you don't agree, who do you think was trying to save EF and get you lynched instead? And if no one, why do you think the wolves just sat there and did nothing while EF was lynched?

[hoopsguy]

Ugh, forgot to put in line breaks. Lets try that again. As of Post #1728:

5 Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
3 PB - Lathum (1554), PF (1661), Abe (1702)
1 PF - Jackal (1637)
1 Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
2 Saldana - Dubb (1684), Pass (1722)
1 Jackal - Hoops (1723)

1532 - Clap votes Telle 1-0
1535 - Autumn votes Telle 2-0
1548 - Pass votes PB 2-1 Telle over PB
1554 - Lathum votes PB 2-2 Telle/PB
1566 - BK votes Telle 3-2 Telle over PB
1578 - PB votes Pass 3-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1616 - Saldana votes Telle 4-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1633 - Poli votes Telle 5-2-1 Telle over PB over Pass
1637 - Jackal votes PF 5-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF
1652 - MartinD votes Lerriuqs 5-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1661 - PF votes PB 5-3-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs
1684 - Dubb votes Saldana 5-3-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1702 - Abe votes PB 5-4-1-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Pass/PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1721 - PB unvotes Pass 5-4-1-1-1 Telle over PB over PF/Lerriuqs/Saldana
1722 - Pass unvotes PB, votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerriuqs
1723 - Hoops votes Jackal 5-3-2-1-1-1 Telle over PB over Saldana over PF/Lerri/Jackal

[PurdueBrad]

Since most of the people on my distrust list were already on me, I would guess that that is why. Or maybe it was Poli or BK who tried to distract with a third party knowing that I had shown I would go for it. I doubt it, but possible. You guys realize you're trying to get somebody who's voting record is the worst this game.

[PurdueBrad]

You guys realize you're trying to get information from somebody who's voting record is the worst this game.

maybe its a freudian slip and there is an admission of me being a wolf.

[hoopsguy]

Looks like a crappy slow Friday. Sigh. Votes through Post #1733:

Telle - Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566), Saldana (1616), Poli (1633)
PB - Lathum (1554), PF (1661), Abe (1702)
PF - Jackal (1637)
Lerriuqs - MartinD (1652)
Saldana - Dubb (1684), Pass (1722)
Jackal - Hoops (1723)

No votes: Lerriuqs, Chief Rum, Telle, MommyTorgo, Eeyore (er, PurdueBrad)

[lerriuqs]

VOTE Saldana

I'm not sold on Telle or PB at this point.

[Barkeep49]

Go for it. Look, here's an explanation for "the way [I've] acted in here today." I have 200 posts, most defending myself. A simple search turned up 39 posts that stated the exact piece of information that I was being asked to repeat again. Did I really need to repeat it for a 40'th time? And, since I have no role of real power, do I really have anything to add at this time? Hopefully that gets my frustration across.
This comment is merely my opinion as a player and is not meant with any mod authority

I would say yes you do. As a teacher, if you have a kid who is trying to learn something, is genuinely curious, you're not going to leave them out to dry, I hope. You might point them to a resource where they can get their question answered, the analogy here being to simply post a quote of what you've answered before. You don't need to come up with a new way to answer a question, but I think in WW, especially one with this many posts, it's not unreasonable at all to expect people to answer a question that is important to the overall flow of the game. Just quote yourself, and you can, if you feel peevish, even make a little snide remark about it. But answering inquiry just seems like a fundamental part of the game and not something that people should be surprised or offended by.

[The Jackal]

VOTE THE JACKAL

I'll almost certainly move this to another candidate if we can't get some momentum going but I really would prefer not to see PB voted out today. Tomorrow? Maybe.

I explained my vote quite thoroughly. I wanted to vote for EF but if PB had been lynched and turned up bad and I wasn't on him I would've looked awful. Not knowing whether either of them were bad, I went with Lathum, though that seems to not have much to do with PB being good or bad.

[The Jackal]

Several times I argued for the case against EF, also. I know hoops is the only vote on me but I want to make sure people see this explained again.

[hoopsguy]

Well, it seems that you "look awful" now for not voting EF - kind of cuts both ways, doesn't it? But this vote is a combination of D1/D2/D3, not just the showdown yesterday as there were plenty of people on the wrong horse there (me included).

[Barkeep49]

Unvote telle

Her vouching for NTN with EF under pressure is indeed something that should gain her trust. Help me understand the saldana thoughts.

[The Jackal]

Well, it seems that you "look awful" now for not voting EF - kind of cuts both ways, doesn't it? But this vote is a combination of D1/D2/D3, not just the showdown yesterday as there were plenty of people on the wrong horse there (me included).

I wouldn't say I look awful for not voting EF since I wanted to and was questioning others (specifically CR) when they questioned the case against him.

I don't know why you have PF on your trusted list at all.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I've got PB neutral now but I will be moving him up to trusted for Day 4, barring a seer coming out gunning for him. I think that he has either been scanned or will be the next scan if still alive.

I wouldn't have said you look awful for a vote on D2, one way or the other, in a vacuum. But you had an unvote on EF and swung over to PB when they were tied 4-4 (minus your vote). Couple that with a NTN vote instead of EF on Day 1 and a vote for someone I trust today and I think you look more wolfy than most right about now.

[Poli]

Here is the more advanced version of vote analysis from the first two days, based on my interpretations:

1. Claphamsa D1: PackerFanatic D2: Telle Unvotes: PB (D2 early) Timing: throwaway vote late D2 (Telle five back, inside of last 20-30 minutes) rather than voting one of lead dogs.

2. EagleFan - Evil Information Collector, Lynched Day 2

3. Barkeep D1: NTN D2: Telle Unvotes: Hoops (D2), PB (D2 late) Timing: PB move in last hour, moving vote from 8-7 PB to 7-7 PB/EF. This is marginally better than I recall last night, as it indirectly increased pressure on EF.

4. The Jackal D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: EF Timing: middle of D3, changes to PB 3 posts later and margin goes from 5EF - 4PB to 4EF - 5PB. He looks worse now than I recalled last night with no end votes on EF and an unvote on EF yesterday.

5. Abe D1: NTN D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote tied up PB with EF at 4-4. Links himself through trust to BK at least twice in thread.

6. PackerFanatic D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1) Timing: no real meaning to discern from D1 vote change. D2 vote on EF was meaningful (7-6 margin).

7. Hoopsguy D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: both pretty early votes, no moves to save EF on D1, no moves to hang EF on D2.

8. PurdueBrad D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Hoops (D1, D2), EF (D1, D2), NTN (D1), Telle (D1) Timing: all kind of late vote changes, not always optimal for survival until last five minutes. Can certainly make a case that he was trying to help EF based on D1 NTN late call and D2 late movement away from EF to anyone offered as an option

9. Lathum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: Poli (D1), Abe (D1) Timing: pretty insignificant vote moves, early in day. Erratic play on D2 hard to understand, but suggests alternate win conditions

10. Martin D D1: PB D2: EF Unvotes: None Timing: D2 vote on EF was meaningful.

11. Poli D1: Abe D2: EF Unvotes: Lathum (D1), Telle (D1, D2), PB (D2) Timing: had multiple chances to put vote on EF on Day 2, did not until very end of day. This looks like one of the worst voting records of the people who have an EF final vote to their name.

12. Passacaglia D1: NTN D2: EF Unvotes: Lerriuqs (D1), Hoops (D1 + D2), EF (D2 - sort of) Timing; NTN votes on D1 tied it back up at 4-4 (he had voted No Lynch, then put vote back where it was when learning it was not a good option). His EF vote on D2 is muted by the fact that he illegally attempted to move his vote, failing to unvote when casting a vote for Telle. Another one of the weaker voting records with a EF vote to their name.

13. Lerriuqs D1: Pass D2: no vote Unvotes: None Timing: Day 2 vote on PB tied it at 7-7, not a good vote based on current information. Day 1 vote cast early, never revisited.

14. Dubb93 D1: EF D2: EF Unvotes: Saldana (D1), PB (D2) Timing: both unvotes came pretty early, both votes on EF were meaningful based on timing, no unvotes down stretch to help EF either time. Very good vote history.

15. Autumn D1: Telle D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D1) Timing: D2 vote on EF is strong, helping create two man race with PB. D1 unvote was very PB-friendly, moving him out of 2 vote lead to throw vote on distant candidate. One of drivers of potential 3rd candidate on Day 1.

16. Chief Rum D1: EF D2: PB Unvotes: None Timing: D1 vote was a big one against EF, D2 vote was a big one for EF. Has floated a couple of theories this game that have been dubious (EF/NTN voters with one wolf each early on, wolves would not block their own which was false on D2)

17. NTNDeacon - The Talker, Lynched Day 1

18. Telle D1: PB D2: PB Unvotes: Abe (D1) Timing: 2nd driver (w/Autumn) of 3rd candidate on D1 when there was a wolf in the mix. No good votes to help cause. Her votes have been early enough to not be magnified.

19. DaddyTorgo D1: no vote D2: EF Unvotes: PB (D2) Timing: Vote change on D2 looks good, but felt like he was looking for excessive credit for doing so when others were initial movers and shakers on EF.

20. AlanT - The Arbitrator, Night kill Day 2

21. Saldana D1: Dubb D2: Hoops Unvotes: EF (D2) Timing: pretty late unvote on EF brought race back to an 8-8 tie. D1 vote was more or less throwaway on likely villager.
Hoops, didn't I vote Telle on day 1?

[Barkeep49]

Well, I've got PB neutral now but I will be moving him up to trusted for Day 4, barring a seer coming out gunning for him. I think that he has either been scanned or will be the next scan if still alive.

I wouldn't have said you look awful for a vote on D2, one way or the other, in a vacuum. But you had an unvote on EF and swung over to PB when they were tied 4-4 (minus your vote). Couple that with a NTN vote instead of EF on Day 1 and a vote for someone I trust today and I think you look more wolfy than most right about now.
Haven't you always said as seer you don't want to scan the controversial people figuring they'd be dead anyway? So why couldn't the seer have followed your lead?

[PurdueBrad]

I would say yes you do. As a teacher, if you have a kid who is trying to learn something, is genuinely curious, you're not going to leave them out to dry, I hope. You might point them to a resource where they can get their question answered, the analogy here being to simply post a quote of what you've answered before.

Agree to a degree, of course the rule from our special ed. district program is that if you consistently have to re-explain the same thing five or more times, you recommend the student for mandatory special education testing.

[PurdueBrad]

Well, I've got PB neutral

I gotta be honest and I know I purposely chopped off part of your quotation but at this point youve all got to either decide bad or good. If youve got me neutral still then just assume Im bad. Abe has the right idea.

[hoopsguy]

BK, I don't think I've "always said" anything in regards to seer scan choices. I really don't think there is a absolute right in terms of how to play that role.

However, they certainly could choose not to scan PB. And that would end up putting me in a bad spot with my assumptions if PB is in fact a wolf. I'm willing to take that chance for a day or two, I think.

[Barkeep49]

Agree to a degree, of course the rule from our special ed. district program is that if you consistently have to re-explain the same thing five or more times, you recommend the student for mandatory special education testing.
But has it been the same person asking over and over again or has it been different people? Seems to me it's been a variety of people. Hence the referring the class to the resources you've already provided analogy. It's not that you didn't teach it, it was that they were too dim to learn it. You don't have to reteach it so much as provide the resources. Hence the suggestion of quoting of your own posts.

[hoopsguy]

I gotta be honest and I know I purposely chopped off part of your quotation but at this point youve all got to either decide bad or good. If youve got me neutral still then just assume Im bad. Abe has the right idea.

I'll have you slotted, for better or worse, for the start of Day 4 based on the assumptions I've already laid out. For today, you are neutral because I haven't seen anyone I think is the seer gunning for you.

[PurdueBrad]

Agree to a degree, of course the rule from our special ed. district program is that if you consistently have to re-explain the same thing five or more times, you recommend the student for mandatory special education testing.

Which may also explain our high special education numbers. This also may explain our 8.5% Special Ed. population.