WW XCIV Group Therapy - Game Over!

[Lathum]

How does CR's theory even put himself in the clear, anyway? He theorizes one wolf in one group of four, another group in another group of 4, and two more left out there? So we've got wolves in all the groups he's made.

It points a finger at a group of 8 people, him not being part of that group.

[Passacaglia]

It points a finger at a group of 8 people, him not being part of that group.

Barely. He posits that 2 of a group of 8 are wolves, while 2 of a group of 12 are wolves? I don't think that's enough to convince anyone to restrict themselves to the group of 8.

[Telle]

Well, I think your reason wasn't much more than picking out of a hat, frankly, though yes you did offer a rationale. My worry is that there may be a deeper reason for you targeting Abe, not that you didn't give a reason at all. Clearly no one except the wolves have a real reason at this point.

And I could say the same about you. Or most anybody right now. It's Day 1.. we don't have much to go on yet.

[Passacaglia]

And I could say the same about you. Or most anybody right now. It's Day 1.. we don't have much to go on yet.

But we do have something to go on with Abe. He's posted that he trusts Barkeep49 a lot. To me, that's saying that his role (which we're not supposed to reveal) is similar to his, meaning they're both villagers. I think that's what Autumn is getting at when he says that Abe specifically is a poor choice.

[Autumn]

Except I didn't vote for Abe.

I really am not wanting to harp on this, but you seem to be missing my point.

[Barkeep49]

I'll run some math on the first part of Chief's pet theory: "Two people at random are likely to be villager/villager"

In a vacuum, if you assume 4 wolves + 1 sympathizer, then there are 16 "good" and 5 "bad" votes at this point.

16/21 * 15/20 = 240/420 = 57.1%
OK, this part does hold up although it is not much of a margin. If there are 6 "bad" votes then it doesn't hold up (exactly 50%).

The initial thing that tweaked me on this was the idea that we had to be villager/villager. I understand that the wolves like to shape the conversation, which shifts the probability from where it would be in a vacuum. But the wolf assignments are random. There isn't much they can do about "quiet player backlash" if NTN is a wolf, just to give one example. I've been a wolf a number of times on Day 1 where I've been stuck in cross-fires with another wolf and had to work like hell in mid/late day to generate movement away from me and my partners.

Also, the communication patterns of the wolves may make it difficult for them to shake out the votes just so (1 for each of two leaders) this early in the day.

I agree with Lathum that it is somewhat convenient to come up with a Day 1 theory that puts himself in the clear, clears two more players (the guys with votes) and creates discussion around 8 people.

If it in fact turns out that Chief was right then at the end of the game I will tip my cap to him (assuming he is not a wolf with inside info) but this feels a little too neat to me.
Hoops this assumes random distribution. Your own argument supports the idea that wolves are less likely to be "randomly" in a showdown. Especially a wolf/wolf showdown.

[Telle]

But we do have something to go on with Abe. He's posted that he trusts Barkeep49 a lot. To me, that's saying that his role (which we're not supposed to reveal) is similar to his, meaning they're both villagers. I think that's what Autumn is getting at when he says that Abe specifically is a poor choice.

Oh shit, I forgot about that. I need to start taking better notes. I'm great at keeping track of the vote count.. but it's those little "tid bits" that I lose track of.

Well I've already said that I don't plan on keeping my vote on him. I just have to figure out who to move it to.

[Lathum]

Barely. He posits that 2 of a group of 8 are wolves, while 2 of a group of 12 are wolves? I don't think that's enough to convince anyone to restrict themselves to the group of 8.

yeah, but he is specifically calling attention to the group of 8, which in turn deflects attention from the other 12, of which he is a part of. That way, when whoever is lynched it is easy for him to say " I think we need to start with that group to test my theory"

[Passacaglia]

yeah, but he is specifically calling attention to the group of 8, which in turn deflects attention from the other 12, of which he is a part of. That way, when whoever is lynched it is easy for him to say " I think we need to start with that group to test my theory"

I'm not sure how much attention he's really calling to it -- I think you guys are reading more into his comment than me. Anyway, I agree that it's not a great theory -- I guess my reaction was to think about what to do now if we're likely villager/villager than chase wild theories or attack people who chase wild theories. Day 1 doesn't have to be as much of a crapshoot as we're making it out to be today.

[Barkeep49]

Listen, I like having Abe vouch for me, I really do. But I want to point out that if there were some sort of lovers role, I would think they would be barred from making the sort of statement Abe has made. I've given away so little about my role, I just wonder why he feels so comfortable vouching for me. I don't think he's a wolf and lord knows I'm not. It isn't even suspicious to me, it's just unexpected and puzzling because it is so unexpected D1.

[Passacaglia]

So, let's explore the idea that we're villager/villager here. Or maybe even villager/villager/villager. I guess that would mean the people wanting us to consolidate are wolves? That probably includes me, although I think I argued more for consolidation before I knew who would be our targets, rather than after.

[Passacaglia]

Listen, I like having Abe vouch for me, I really do. But I want to point out that if there were some sort of lovers role, I would think they would be barred from making the sort of statement Abe has made. I've given away so little about my role, I just wonder why he feels so comfortable vouching for me. I don't think he's a wolf and lord knows I'm not. It isn't even suspicious to me, it's just unexpected and puzzling because it is so unexpected D1.

I wasn't thinking of lovers at all -- just that your roles seem to be similar. Since they can't be revealed, but we know that only good guys have them, I think that's definitely something to go on.

[Autumn]

I've lost track of the vote count. Very little movement since it settled at 3-4 targets, and a fair number of votes still to come.

I don't see a particular reason to move until closer to deadline, as I assume we'll see some shifting.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:


saldana -- 0
PurdueBrad -- 3 The Jackal (329) EagleFan (452) Autumn (455)
Abe Sargent -- 2 Poli (252) Telle (457)
Passacaglia -- 1 lerriuqs (253)
hoopsguy -- 0
lerriuqs -- 0
dubb93 -- 1 saldana (304)
EagleFan -- 4 hoopsguy (328) PurdueBrad (343) Lathum (396) dubb93 (416)
PackerFanatic -- 1 claphamsa (335)
ntndeacon -- 3 PackerFanatic (374) Barkeep49 (420) Abe Sargent (425)
Lathum -- 0
No Lynch -- 0

[Passacaglia]

So based on my consolidation theory, I'm looking at dubb. His vote seems intended to make it a runaway for EF, or at least force others to vote someone else to make it a 2-horse race. I think something he said struck me as weird too, but I forget what it was. Off to look.

[Lathum]

So, let's explore the idea that we're villager/villager here. Or maybe even villager/villager/villager. I guess that would mean the people wanting us to consolidate are wolves? That probably includes me, although I think I argued more for consolidation before I knew who would be our targets, rather than after.

This makes no sense to me, consolidation does nothing but help the village down the road.

[Telle]

As of post 513:

2 - Abe - Poli (252), Telle (457)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
4 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), PurdueBrad (343), Lathum (396), dubb (416)
3 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Autumn (455)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
3 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425)

[dubb93]

So based on my consolidation theory, I'm looking at dubb. His vote seems intended to make it a runaway for EF, or at least force others to vote someone else to make it a 2-horse race. I think something he said struck me as weird too, but I forget what it was. Off to look.

I guess I should have voted no lynch as you did?

[Passacaglia]

This makes no sense to me, consolidation does nothing but help the village down the road.

If it's the wolves pushing for consolidation because they know we're villager/villager, it certainly doesn't help the village.

[Telle]

If it's the wolves pushing for consolidation because they know we're villager/villager, it certainly doesn't help the village.

Isn't it normal for villagers to push for consolidation as well though? What good did nine candidates earlier do us? When it's spread out it's easy for the wolves to hide votes.

[Passacaglia]

I guess I should have voted no lynch as you did?

Check the vote count, mine isn't on No Lynch anymore. Looking back, I didn't see any post by you that raised eyebrows -- maybe I was thinking of someone else. Regarding the EF vote, though -- doesn't his play today seem a lot like your play in the Athens and Sparta game, when you were a villager?

[dubb93]

But we do have something to go on with Abe. He's posted that he trusts Barkeep49 a lot. To me, that's saying that his role (which we're not supposed to reveal) is similar to his, meaning they're both villagers. I think that's what Autumn is getting at when he says that Abe specifically is a poor choice.

The Needies (potential for unlisted roles as well as a listed role to not appear in the game)

Am I missing something?

[Passacaglia]

Isn't it normal for villagers to push for consolidation as well though? What good did nine candidates earlier do us? When it's spread out it's easy for the wolves to hide votes.

Yes, it is normal -- as I said, I pushed for it myself. But while that's true, if we're going to go off the assumption that we're villager/villager, then we might as well look at what that means, rather than getting all worked up about whether or not 2 of 8 people are wolves.

[Passacaglia]

Yes, it is normal -- as I said, I pushed for it myself. But while that's true, if we're going to go off the assumption that we're villager/villager, then we might as well look at what that means, rather than getting all worked up about whether or not 2 of 8 people are wolves.

Not sure I finished my thought there -- and IMO what it means is that it's more likely that people pushing for consolidation are wolves.

[dubb93]

Check the vote count, mine isn't on No Lynch anymore. Looking back, I didn't see any post by you that raised eyebrows -- maybe I was thinking of someone else. Regarding the EF vote, though -- doesn't his play today seem a lot like your play in the Athens and Sparta game, when you were a villager?

No not at all.

My play was to get a rise out of players(mainly due to it being a small game with a small window of time to make decisions). His has seemed VERY random, changing his vote without getting said rise out of people. Had he pushed the players he voted then yes I would see it.

His excuse was not "I'm trying to push players to get information." His excuse has been:

It's day one in a game where we are in a mental ward. Just having fun with the theme.

I do not think this play is good for the village. Basically he is destroying the voting record for no other reason then b/c this is a mental ward game?

[The Jackal]

I see ntn in the thread, good time for him to chime in since I was just about to switch my vote to him.

[dubb93]

I wasn't thinking of lovers at all -- just that your roles seem to be similar. Since they can't be revealed, but we know that only good guys have them, I think that's definitely something to go on.

This is the post I meant to quote above in reference of the rules.

[The Jackal]

I'll check back in a little to see what's progressed, but we've got a few hours yet.

[Passacaglia]

How is the voting record destroyed?

You actually don't have to answer that if you don't want to, since I have to go soon. :p

[ntndeacon]

ok I am catching up. So I have checked in now... (so now you can get off my name :) ) But until that happens...
Vote Packerfanatic

[Lathum]

Not sure I finished my thought there -- and IMO what it means is that it's more likely that people pushing for consolidation are wolves.

I don't buy that one bit.

I always push for consolidation no matter what.

[Passacaglia]

Anyway, I gotta jet, and might not be back before deadline, so I'm putting in my vote.


VOTE NTNDEACON

[PurdueBrad]

I think PurdueBrad just got an unfortunate run on him without much real reason.

I really think this is what happens to me anytime that I get lynched.

[dubb93]

How is the voting record destroyed?

You actually don't have to answer that if you don't want to, since I have to go soon. :p

Moving the vote around at random makes it pretty damn easy to hide behind your vote. You may be called on it eventually, but it still makes it pretty damn easy to hide. Look at how far I got in your game by moving my vote as I did. People saw me as insane and we not able to ever get enough votes to vote me, even on the day where we voted 2 out.

[Abe Sargent]

How do we vote out needies if we are too afraid to lynch villagers? How do we get information that leads to the lynching of needies if we are afraid to lynch villagers? I do not think this is a good idea Pass.

Yeah, totally don't agree either.

[PurdueBrad]

I also think that Jackal is just playing his role with the vote movements early and having fun with it. So

unvote EF

vote ntndeacon

My move here is partially self-defense at this point as I would likely have to end up here anyway.

[ntndeacon]

I'm wary of anyone who has a run on them this early, so I'd like to introduce a third person to the mix.

I'm kind of stuck on the ntndeacon issue. I'm all for getting rid of quiet players, if only for a long-term deterrent. However, it's an easy vote for wolves to hide behind, or argue against. I'm thinking something more random is more likely to rile the Needies up.

I wasn't being quiet. Iwas being Absent like Telle said. Now that I got a good night sleep lets see who really needs to leave

[Abe Sargent]

vowels and wolves are anagrams

I never even realized that.

[Lathum]

I may switch to PB unless he stops typing in lilliputian text

[Chief Rum]

So CR, if you're thinking we're likely villager/villager now -- what should we do about it?

Unfortunately, Pass, I don't have any solid theories on anyone at the moment (including the one I already posited, which is really just the barebones of a theory based on some logic and math which is very likely to be untrue).

My point in suggesting we were likely villager-villager was completely based on the numbers and nothing else. I am not questioning anyone's reasons for voting for EF or ntndeacon. Bouncing one's vote around (EF) or being a quiet player (ntn) are reasons I can certainly support for a Day One lynch.

I'm just noting that, whatever the reason, with two candidates at that time getting significant runs, there is some potential to apply the logic of my theory to the situation. Not something I would go on now, but something I'll keep an eye on, at the very least for my own curiosity (as we see this sort of situation in just about every WW game on Day One).

No, short of a more obvious candidate coming up, I don't think we should do anything but vote on our gut and hope we don't have villagers in our sights. What choice do we have? Day One votes suck.

[dubb93]

I'm off for training. Hopefully be back before deadline.

[ntndeacon]

the one strategy thing I can think of is that a wolve will likely vote for a wolf day one just to give themselves a little cover for later.

[Abe Sargent]

Going out with friends in a bit. May not be back later

[hoopsguy]

so what you're saying hoops is that we should lynch chief rum to find out about the other two who were on the block?

or is that your way of working like hell because you're a wolf and so are one/both of them so we should lynch YOU?

I would rather you lynch Chief than me, duh. But I don't think that I was trying to create that type of choice either.

The first part of the post was wanting to run the numbers because it seems to be somewhat accepted that "villager/villager" is the most likely outcome when picking two people at random. I think the math shows that this is not nearly as conclusive as most may think.

The second part was that I'm trying to figure out the logic in floating a theory like that, and whether it was innocent speculation or founded on some kind of information that he might have. Right now I'm a little more suspicious of Chief than the average villager.

[ntndeacon]

and I know I am quiet, but today that wasn't my problem. I did not see us moving til about 12 as I did not have school today

[Poli]

Oh come on. 5 pages at 50 posts per page to go through?

[Chief Rum]

I like how your "pet theory" vindicates you.

Pass has said much of what I would say, so I won't regurgitate it too much. That said, you are definitely reading far too much into it. It is a very loose theory. I don't think anyone should base a vote on it now, and probably not for a while longer, with a lot more evidence to back it up. I even said in my original post that it wasn't something on which to base a vote.

I have posited that there are four wolves and a sympathizer. I point out that (theoretically), there would be one wolf only in each of those two groups of four. That's two wolves. Stands to reason the other two wolves are in the remainder of the village, which is nine players (ntn and EF are out because my theory is bunk if either is not a villager). Not much advantage to being on either side of the equation.

In fact, there is more benefit if you are in the eight, because if you're not a wolf, and we catch one from your group, stands to reason you are even more cleared as a possible villager, as it's unlikely two wolves would bunch together early on a villager-villager vote battle. Those in the group of nine don't have any such logic to support them not being wolves.

So, no, if you think my theory in some vindicates me, you pretty much about read that as wrong as you could. So kudos to you--not many people could pull that off to so far effect.

[EagleFan]

It points a finger at a group of 8 people, him not being part of that group.

Did you even read what he wrote? He doesn't say that "All the wolves are in that group". I do enjoy how Lathum is always so quick to dismiss anything that even remotely looks in his direction.

I don't even know if he is playing in character this game as it's pretty much like any other game where someone looks at him and the paranoia begins (usually ending with him being a wolf).

So far we have Lathum accusing me of making excuses for a vote, then clarifying that I was setting up to make an excuse for a vote and now that CR is conveniently trying to keep himself out of the discussion.

He seems to have gone on the attack pretty early for some reason.

Damn, I slid out of character again. I was hoping to stay in character all of day one to enjoy it (since day one votes are meaningless ON DAY ONE).


Now who stole my meds!?!?!?!?!?

[Poli]

are you on crack?
I was in rare form last night. I'd be happy to revisit it if you'd like. I can break out the dictionary any time.

[Poli]

saldana -- 1 dubb93 (244)
PurdueBrad -- 1 EagleFan (251)
Abe Sargent -- 1 Poli (252)
Passacaglia -- 1 lerriuqs (253)
Dubb -- 1 Saldana (304)
lerriuqs -- 1 Passacaglia (284)

Vote count so far
I forgot I had even voted for abe.

[MartinD]

Apologies for not checking in earlier - got in a bit later than usual, and have only just been able to catch up in the last 20 minutes or so.

Will post my vote for today shortly...

[Danny]

I also think that Jackal is just playing his role with the vote movements early and having fun with it. So

unvote EF

vote ntndeacon

My move here is partially self-defense at this point as I would likely have to end up here anyway.


PB can you please go back to the regular font

[Chief Rum]

I'll run some math on the first part of Chief's pet theory: "Two people at random are likely to be villager/villager"

In a vacuum, if you assume 4 wolves + 1 sympathizer, then there are 16 "good" and 5 "bad" votes at this point.

16/21 * 15/20 = 240/420 = 57.1%
OK, this part does hold up although it is not much of a margin. If there are 6 "bad" votes then it doesn't hold up (exactly 50%).

The initial thing that tweaked me on this was the idea that we had to be villager/villager. I understand that the wolves like to shape the conversation, which shifts the probability from where it would be in a vacuum. But the wolf assignments are random. There isn't much they can do about "quiet player backlash" if NTN is a wolf, just to give one example. I've been a wolf a number of times on Day 1 where I've been stuck in cross-fires with another wolf and had to work like hell in mid/late day to generate movement away from me and my partners.

Also, the communication patterns of the wolves may make it difficult for them to shake out the votes just so (1 for each of two leaders) this early in the day.

I agree with Lathum that it is somewhat convenient to come up with a Day 1 theory that puts himself in the clear, clears two more players (the guys with votes) and creates discussion around 8 people.

If it in fact turns out that Chief was right then at the end of the game I will tip my cap to him (assuming he is not a wolf with inside info) but this feels a little too neat to me.

I have countered the "cleared" part above, which is a ridiculous assumption on both Lathum's part and your own, but I entirely agree about the potential flaws to running with this theory without more evidence, which is why I strongly advocate no one apply it right now (and maybe not ever). Your "communication" example is an excellent point to consider. This theory is based on the underlying assumption that the wolves are fully involved and available and working together with their votes, which is an entirely unsafe assumption to make. It's just another reason why at this point the theory is meaningless, but it will be interesting to see if it plays out anywhere near correct.

BTW, this theory is based on wolf decisions, and the wolves have no idea who the sympathizer is. So from their perspective, assuming four wolves, there are 17 villagers. Meaning the likelihood of a villager vs villager battle is 17/21*16/20 == 64.7%. That's a little more likely than your numbers, FWIW.

[Poli]

did you get hold of Poli's crack?

Do you mean qrack?
Funny, funny. One more of these and I started using the letter Q repeatedly.

[Poli]

UNVOTE NTNDEACON
VOTE NO LYNCH


If all the villagers have some sort of role, I think the risk of getting rid of one is just too great.

How do we vote out needies if we are too afraid to lynch villagers? How do we get information that leads to the lynching of needies if we are afraid to lynch villagers? I do not think this is a good idea Pass.
While Hoops definitely has my ear with what I think is logical (no offense to Eaglefan, I know we've had our fights over the word 'logic") deduction on voting Eags, I think Pass's thought has merit. Since we all have roles, clearly we're all beneficial to the cause. Not lynching allows more of us to be involved and help root out the wolves. It slows the game down in other words and forces the wolves to eliminate us slowly while we gain more and more information.

[Lathum]

So, no, if you think my theory in some vindicates me, you pretty much about read that as wrong as you could. So kudos to you--not many people could pull that off to so far effect.

If you don't think your theory looks like you are deflecting attention from yourself to another group of people then your out of your fucking mind.

[claphamsa]

something tells me Poli is gonna run off abotu 15 posts.... quoting post from hours ago :)

[Poli]

There is no randomness. Since there is some confusion I will reveal that the only way that a no lynch vote would win is if everyone voted that way. If there is someone with votes on them, then the no lynch votes are wasted, even if they are the majority. I'll update the rules with this option.
Bah.

[ntndeacon]

hey as long as he throws the spotlight on all those needies on me I am all for it.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I don't worry as much about you = cleared (obviously not the case) as floating the idea as a way of changing the direction of the voting.

If we are not villager/villager (43% chance, if Sympathizer does not equal villager, using 4+1 line) then the wolves would probably be in favor of changing the current dynamic to get one of their own out of a potential showdown.

So, the question I'm asking myself is whether or not you are trying to do exactly that.

[Lathum]

I don't even know if he is playing in character this game as it's pretty much like any other game where someone looks at him and the paranoia begins (usually ending with him being a wolf).

?

find the last game I was a wolf and acted this way.

With the exception of being converted last game I don't even remember the last time I was a wolf.

Someone looks at me I look back, period. I always play that way so I guess I am always a wolf.

[Autumn]

While Hoops definitely has my ear with what I think is logical (no offense to Eaglefan, I know we've had our fights over the word 'logic") deduction on voting Eags, I think Pass's thought has merit. Since we all have roles, clearly we're all beneficial to the cause. Not lynching allows more of us to be involved and help root out the wolves. It slows the game down in other words and forces the wolves to eliminate us slowly while we gain more and more information.

Except we can't reveal the information the unlisted roles provide, so I'm not sure we're going to be accumulating much of anything.

It's always tempting not to lynch a bunch of villagers, as we usually do, but even if we get some good scans or something, without a voting record that's not going to give us much.

[hoopsguy]

Dola, using your logic that the wolves don't know Sympathizer then they would only feel the need to move/influence the vote to protect their own about 1/3 of the time.

[MartinD]

While Hoops definitely has my ear with what I think is logical (no offense to Eaglefan, I know we've had our fights over the word 'logic") deduction on voting Eags, I think Pass's thought has merit. Since we all have roles, clearly we're all beneficial to the cause. Not lynching allows more of us to be involved and help root out the wolves. It slows the game down in other words and forces the wolves to eliminate us slowly while we gain more and more information.

From post 463:

There is no randomness. Since there is some confusion I will reveal that the only way that a no lynch vote would win is if everyone voted that way. If there is someone with votes on them, then the no lynch votes are wasted, even if they are the majority. I'll update the rules with this option.

Is 'no lynch' a viable option? All it takes for the 'no lynch' to be overridden is one lynch vote - suspect that we (as a group) are going to struggle to get that level of consensus...

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to give up on "dola" today - too many of you guys posting :)

[Danny]

From post 463:



Is 'no lynch' a viable option? All it takes for the 'no lynch' to be overridden is one lynch vote - suspect that we (as a group) are going to struggle to get that level of consensus...

I didn't say viable, but it is an option.:p

[Poli]

Martin, see my "Bah" post above.

[Poli]

Danny sucks. There, I said it.

[MartinD]

I didn't say viable, but it is an option.:p

Just one that appears to have the proverbial snowball's chance... :lol:

[Danny]

Plus it's my game, so I can go with my own bias of not liking no lynch votes :)

[MartinD]

Martin, see my "Bah" post above.

I did see it - unfortunately, that would be after I'd made my post, and it's a bit late to do anything about it at that point ;)

[Danny]

Danny sucks. There, I said it.

Hmmm, maybe this game could use some random GM events. I wonder if it would be viable for lightning to strike a player inside the therapy room

[EagleFan]

If you don't think your theory looks like you are deflecting attention from yourself to another group of people then your out of your fucking mind.

:lol:

Queue Lathuming in 3.....2.....1......

[Poli]

You could always Bull Moose Special me. That seems to work like a champ. I thought I was darn near invincible last game when ntn passed me the rifle.

I felt like I was on Hee Haw.

BLLLEEEWWWH. I was gone.

[Telle]

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I don't have much reason to vote for him.. but I don't like the other options either. I've stated my case against voting for ntndeacon due to "tendency to be quiet". I also think it's too easy for wolves to hide a vote on EagleFan and claim it's because of his vote jumping (note that Passacaglia vote jumped a lot today too.. 5 different votes). So let's keep this a three-horse race and see how things shake out.

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.

[MartinD]

Plus it's my game, so I can go with my own bias of not liking no lynch votes :)

In other words, 'it's ma ba', and ah'm aff hame if ah dinnah get tae dae things mah way'...

(Translation available on request :p )

[Telle]

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I don't have much reason to vote for him.. but I don't like the other options either. I've stated my case against voting for ntndeacon due to "tendency to be quiet". I also think it's too easy for wolves to hide a vote on EagleFan and claim it's because of his vote jumping (note that Passacaglia vote jumped a lot today too.. 5 different votes). So let's keep this a three-horse race and see how things shake out.

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.

forgot...
UNVOTE ABE
VOTE PURDEUBRAD

[Chief Rum]

If you don't think your theory looks like you are deflecting attention from yourself to another group of people then your out of your fucking mind.

I guess I'll fit right into this game then.

[ntndeacon]

Hmmm, maybe this game could use some random GM events. I wonder if it would be viable for lightning to strike a player inside the therapy room

runs around in little circles afraid of lightning strikes...

[Poli]

Yeah, I missed that Lathumesque response.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm moving my vote again, based on something that just happened. The person that earlier said I was the unfortunate victim of a run suddenly flips and votes me? Come on.

unvote ntndeacon
vote Telle

[PurdueBrad]

From here on out, I'll only move if a wolf reveals or absolute self-defense.

Like the type size better Lathum?

[PurdueBrad]

Hmmm, maybe this game could use some random GM events. I wonder if it would be viable for lightning to strike a player inside the therapy room

Thank you Nurse Ratched, that'll do.

[PurdueBrad]

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.

AND hit and run to boot!

[Chief Rum]

Chief, I don't worry as much about you = cleared (obviously not the case) as floating the idea as a way of changing the direction of the voting.

If we are not villager/villager (43% chance, if Sympathizer does not equal villager, using 4+1 line) then the wolves would probably be in favor of changing the current dynamic to get one of their own out of a potential showdown.

So, the question I'm asking myself is whether or not you are trying to do exactly that.

Understood completely, and that's one reason why I strongly advocate not using this theory at this moment, but keep it as something in mind to look back at in the future. Maybe in game, maybe after the game. In fact, if anyone used my theory to try to build a case at this point in time, it would seal me voting for that person, because no one knows better than me how ripe for flaw this theory is at this point in time.

BTW, the Sympathizer is/isn't a villager isn't a choice or a semantic to be judged with respect to the theory. The theory is based entirely on wolf decisions, what they know, and they do not know who the Sympathizer is.

My guess is the Sympathizer will have his/her vote on a candidate who is clearly not being lynched, therefore ensuring they do not accidentally vote a wolf out.

[Poli]

Last time I heard those words I think Jackal was defending himself against one of my votes last game.

AND I WAS RIGHT.

[Poli]

My previous post was intended to follow PB's Hit and Run comment.

[Poli]

I'm off to work out...I may be back before I head off to church.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out and I think I would prefer the original run-off of NTN vs EF rather than PB as the lynch.

My perceptions, as of right now:
Telle does not want NTN to be voted off.
Autumn did not like the NTN/EF run-off, pushed for new candidate.
Chief Rum posted a theory suggesting we were likely villager/villager.

Now maybe these are all 100% innocent reactions, but right now I'm starting to convince myself that we've got a wolf on the wire in those first two people.

[Chief Rum]

Dola, using your logic that the wolves don't know Sympathizer then they would only feel the need to move/influence the vote to protect their own about 1/3 of the time.

True, but this theory is dependent on a villager-villager Day One battle, and the wolves' only consideration right now is vote spread.

[Chief Rum]

well, vote spread AND not making a vote that points a target at them saying, "WOLF!", of course.

[PurdueBrad]

For what it is worth, I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out and I think I would prefer the original run-off of NTN vs EF rather than PB as the lynch.

My perceptions, as of right now:
Telle does not want NTN to be voted off.
Autumn did not like the NTN/EF run-off, pushed for new candidate.
Chief Rum posted a theory suggesting we were likely villager/villager.

Now maybe these are all 100% innocent reactions, but right now I'm starting to convince myself that we've got a wolf on the wire in those first two people.

I, and I can't believe I'm saying this, think you and I are seeing the same thing here with the ntn-telle-autumn-EF dynamic. I'm not saying this for self-defense purposes but looking back particularly at Telle's posts, that's what I think I'm seeing as well.

[Chief Rum]

:lol:

Queue Lathuming in 3.....2.....1......

Lathum knows, if he tries to Lathum me, I will have no compunction in choosing to Rum him out. ;)

[hoopsguy]

I, and I can't believe I'm saying this, think you and I are seeing the same thing here with the ntn-telle-autumn-EF dynamic. I'm not saying this for self-defense purposes but looking back particularly at Telle's posts, that's what I think I'm seeing as well.

I'm not yet ready to say that we've got a whole flock of wolves in there, but I would like to test our initial two with lynch/scan (whoever has it) and go from there. Obviously that would take a ton of villager coordination to pull off (leaving votes on those two, seer playing ball, people trusting that I'm not pulling some kind of goofy Day 1 angle, etc) but I think it represents a good starting point for our game based on my impressions so far.

[MartinD]

I'm a bit confused here - finding it hard to work out where to put my vote...

The two main candidates appear to be PB and ntn - don't really want to vote for ntn, as it seems to me that the main reason for him getting votes is that he wasn't around for most of the day (at which point I'm feeling a bit fortunate that I didn't get nailed for that one!), but a vote for PB seems a bit too much like bandwagon-jumping.

I don't see much point in voting for someone else at this point, as almost everyone else is a long way back.

Not absolutely sure about this one, but:

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Will be on for the next 20 minutes or so - may change this if I feel there's sufficient reason.

[hoopsguy]

Danny, do you have a current vote count?

[Danny]

I'm working on it now

[Danny]

As of post 5597:

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
3 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Autumn (455), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
2 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335), NTNDeacon (530)
5 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), PurdueBrad (536)
1 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581)

[Autumn]

For what it is worth, I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out and I think I would prefer the original run-off of NTN vs EF rather than PB as the lynch.

My perceptions, as of right now:
Telle does not want NTN to be voted off.
Autumn did not like the NTN/EF run-off, pushed for new candidate.
Chief Rum posted a theory suggesting we were likely villager/villager.

Now maybe these are all 100% innocent reactions, but right now I'm starting to convince myself that we've got a wolf on the wire in those first two people.

My concern about the NTN/EF run off was the fact that there wasn't any movement. It seemed like no one was eager to shift off either of these, and four votes on each so early seemed a bit much.

I tend to think neither are wolf or else we would have seen an earlier push to get off of them, but maybe you're right that the push has just come later.

What is our vote count? Telle is the only one to have pinged my radar. I would consider shifting to him, but I'm wary of shifting off to one of the early vote getters for the reasons above.

[Abe Sargent]

As of post 5597:

2 - Abe - Poli (252),
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
3 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Autumn (455), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
2 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335), NTNDeacon (530)
4 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), PurdueBrad (536)
1 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581)

YTou list 5 for ntn but count it as four

[Danny]

You had the wrong number too, fixed

[ntndeacon]

Martin, it is a combination of me not being on early and my reputation of not speaking that has votes on me. Clearly the folks on me are DESPIRATELY in need of therapy. I am going to change my vote to help myself survive.

[ntndeacon]

unvote PackerFanatic
Vote PurdueBrad

[Autumn]

I don't want to be on a runaway, my random pick of Purdue seems to have generated an unhealthy amount of interest for a guy that hasn't done anything at all to warrant it.

<b>unvote purduebrad
vote telle</b>

I'm almost inclined to go with Eaglefan just to even up the numbers, but with three more votes, I think, still coming I"ll wait to see how they move.

[Chief Rum]

I don't get a wolf vibe from PB right now. Feels trumped up abit. And I never liked the UTR theory on NTN, at least not this early. And now that he's here, what's the point?

I don't think early vote switching is proof of Neediness either, but given the candidates here, I think EF is the best of the usual weak Day One choices.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[MartinD]

Martin, it is a combination of me not being on early and my reputation of not speaking that has votes on me. Clearly the folks on me are DESPIRATELY in need of therapy. I am going to change my vote to help myself survive.

As I said in my earlier post, it could very easily be me in that position - while I'm still pretty new to the game, I seem to be developing a similar reputation (of not posting all that often).

While I definitely see Barkeep's point about voting for the quiet ones to encourage them to get involved, as it's relatively easy for wolves to go under the radar, I don't know if day 1 is the time to get onto someone's case for not being active on the thread.

[Autumn]

I think if Lathum hadn't mentioned you being out of the country or something, Martin, it very well could have been you, as I focused on ntn as the one who hadn't logged in yet.

I agree there's no reason to punish someone for being quiet, once they've shown up and contributed. That was all I hoped to get out of the pressure.

[Danny]

As of post 606:

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
4 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595), NTNDeacon (603)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
5 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), PurdueBrad (536)
2 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581), Autumn (604)

[MartinD]

I think if Lathum hadn't mentioned you being out of the country or something, Martin, it very well could have been you, as I focused on ntn as the one who hadn't logged in yet.

I agree there's no reason to punish someone for being quiet, once they've shown up and contributed. That was all I hoped to get out of the pressure.

It's not so much that I'm out of the country - more like I was never in the country in the first place! :lol: :D

[hoopsguy]

As of post 606:

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
4 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595), NTNDeacon (603)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
5 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), PurdueBrad (536)
2 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581), Autumn (604)


20 votes in, no vote from DT
Self-preservation options still available: NTN to EF, PB to EF, EF to NTN

I'm expecting that there is still voting movement to be seen, but that is where it sits right now.

[hoopsguy]

It's not so much that I'm out of the country - more like I was never in the country in the first place! :lol: :D

Yeah, yeah, yeah - that "alternate time zone" stuff is a fantastic cover. See how Lathum uses it now that he is on the west coast?

:lol: :D

Hmm, I may need to change my profile to showing me as in Dubai or something along those lines ... yeah, that's the ticket.

[Alan T]

Yeah, yeah, yeah - that "alternate time zone" stuff is a fantastic cover. See how Lathum uses it now that he is on the west coast?

:lol: :D

Hmm, I may need to change my profile to showing me as in Dubai or something along those lines ... yeah, that's the ticket.

I actually live in a moving jet where my time zone never matches anyone else.

[PurdueBrad]

As of post 606:

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
4 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595), NTNDeacon (603)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
4- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532)
2 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581), Autumn (604)

Corrected, removed my double vote, one on NTN, one on Telle.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, that means someone else has not voted as well - who did I miss?

I think Alan T. So him and DT (err, MT) without votes up to this point.

[PurdueBrad]

Danny's count may be off, didn't Poli move his vote to me too?

[hoopsguy]

Sigh - I'll start working on the vote/unvote chart now as well as a vote count just to double check.

[PurdueBrad]

NM, thought he was part of the rush.

[Alan T]

Hmm, that means someone else has not voted as well - who did I miss?

I think Alan T. So him and DT (err, MT) without votes up to this point.

That is right, I haven't voted yet. Haven't decided which way to go.

[hoopsguy]

It has gotten very quiet while I've been counting votes. There have been a ton of votes/unvotes this game :eek: :eek:

[PurdueBrad]

That's party my fault Hoops, sorry. If if helps, you can ignore my vote for RendeR's puppy.

[Alan T]

It has gotten very quiet while I've been counting votes. There have been a ton of votes/unvotes this game :eek: :eek:


I know! It's crazy!! crazy I say!

[Alan T]

Is the vote count in 613 then correct? A few of the previous ones had errors.

[PurdueBrad]

Alan, I believe so.

[hoopsguy]

It's day one in a game where we are in a mental ward. Just having fun with the theme. The number one rule of these games is to have fun (or it should be) and that's what I'm trying to do.

If that looks bad, so be it.



The way I see it day one logic goes like this:

Make a vote on someone with no votes - you are a wolf trying to hide your vote
Make a second or third vote on someone - you are a wolf trying to put a villager in the lead
Keep your vote on one person - you are a wolf hopeing to not be noticed
Move your vote around - you are a wolf trying to create confusion
Try to create a tie - you are a wolf trying to create confusion
Cast a deciding vote - you are a wolf lynching a villager
Cast a self defense vote - you are a wolf using self defense as an excuse
Don't move your vote into the middle of a tight race - you are a wolf trying to hide your vote
Move you vote into the middle of a tight race - you are a wolf trying to save a wolf
Don't vote - you are a wolf afraid of revealing yourself with your vote
Vote first - You are a wolf trying to get in early
Vote last - you are a wolf waiting to see what villager to lynch
Vote in the middle of the daye - you are a wolf trying to hide
Have a normal day one vote - you are a wolf using an excuse
Use some random theory to vote - you are a wolf using an excuse
Leave no comment with your vote - you are a wolf trying to hit and run
Leave a comment with your vote - you are a wolf using an excuse
Post a lot - you are a wolf
Post very little - you are wolf going UTR


I think that about covers most of the main day one voting theories.

Out of game - this is a great post :)

[hoopsguy]

OK, was not able to finish this but my kid is home which means I'm probably not on between now and deadline. Here is the vote/unvote chart up through Post #500. I'll pick it up when i'm back online for awhile, probably sometime after 10PM EST.

205 - Poli votes Lathum (1-0)
210 - Lathum votes Poli (1-1)
240 - Poli unvotes Lathum (1-0)
242 - Lathum unvotes Poli (0-0)
244 - Dubb votes Saldana (1-0)
251 - EF votes PB (1-1)
252 - Poli votes Abe (1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe
253 - Lerriuqs votes Pass (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
272 - PB votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Hoops
273 - PB unvotes Hoops (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
284 - Pass votes Lerriuqs (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs
304 - Saldana votes Dubb (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb
323 - EF unvotes PB, votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
326 - Lathum votes Abe (2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
328 - Hoops votes EF (2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF
329 - Jackal votes PB (2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
333 - PF votes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
335 - Clap votes PF (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB/PF
341 - Pass unvotes Lerriuqs, votes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/EF/PB/Lerriuqs
343 - PB votes EF (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs
347 - Pass unvotes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/Hoops
357 - PF unvotes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Hoops
370 - Pass votes for NTN (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Hoops/NTN
372 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes PB (2-2-2-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/NTN
374 - PF votes NTN (2-2-2-2-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb
381 - PF unvotes PB, votes Lathum (2-2-2-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Lathum
396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (3-2-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Lathum/Abe
416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (4-2-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/Lathum/Abe
420 - BK votes NTN (4-3-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/Lathum/Abe
425 - Abe votes NTN (4-4-1-1-1-1) EF/NTN over Pass/Dubb/Lathum/Abe
443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (4-3-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/Lathum/Abe
452 - EF unvotes Lathum, votes PB (4-3-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PB
455 - Autumn votes PB (4-3-2-1-1-1) EF over NTN over PB over Pass/Dubb/Abe
457 - Telle votes Abe (4-3-2-2-1-1) EF over NTN over PB/Abe over Pass/Dubb

[Chief Rum]

Off to my next job (no Web access), so I'll see you guys after deadline. Actually, probably after night deadline, too, come to think of it.

[dubb93]

Deadline is less than an hour?

[Danny]

Deadline is in 55 minutes

[dubb93]

Wow, it kinda got dead around here all of a sudden.

[Poli]

Got to shower and eat...then off to church.

[EagleFan]

Hola fellow crazies!!! I hear that our doctor has been hording the good meds and giving us sugar pills instead. Except for Lathum, he has been giving him extenze so the mice would stop laughing at him.... :eek: :devil:

[EagleFan]

PB, I was hoping to be able to hop my vote a few times in the insane manner I was starting to but at this point I potentially screw myself if I move it. (I was going to follow your votes to be honest but then you voted me so I had to stop, so you could have an in game crazy stalker :) )

[EagleFan]

I hate it when it's his quiet!!! That's when the voices are the loudest!!!! Make them stop!!!!

[PurdueBrad]

Hehe, thanks EF. Look, this is where if I had a role of real importance, I would reveal...



...but I think my role is only mildly important and I can't reveal anyway. So villagers, you aren't losing a ton by voting me off.

[Alan T]

So with Eaglefan around, I am assuming he is keeping an eye if he needs to move his vote to save himself (right now moving it from PB to ntn wouldn't change anything for him though).

PurdueBrad's vote is still tucked away on a non-candidate to which I'm guessing he will not hesitate to move it to either ntn or Eaglefan. I'm curious to which one you likely would go after PB? Any particular reason why that one over the other?

[PurdueBrad]

Alan, if needed I would go ntn over EF. The ntn-Telle dynamic bugs me.

[Alan T]

Alan, if needed I would go ntn over EF. The ntn-Telle dynamic bugs me.

Is it just that, or is it also because ntn is less likey to be around at the deadline based on his past history in WW games to move his vote as a counter?

[Alan T]

Oh, I guess ntn already has his vote on you. So how much of your willingness to vote him is more self preservation?

[PurdueBrad]

I definitely would go Telle over him and probably Martin D too and then ntn.

[Alan T]

I definitely would go Telle over him and probably Martin D too and then ntn.

Why Martin D? Not like Europeans?

[dubb93]

I definitely would go Telle over him and probably Martin D too and then ntn.

Why Martin D? Without digging through the thread I don't recall off hand his name even coming up today.

[PurdueBrad]

Telle's play has struck me odd as she's looked to cover her votes multiple ways but then calls out others for their votes. Martin D's vote on my reeked of a future excuse the way he explained it. And then the ntn-Telle dynamic.

[PurdueBrad]

I don't have the post handy but find/re-read his vote for me. I'll look now.

[dubb93]

Telle's play has struck me odd as she's looked to cover her votes multiple ways but then calls out others for their votes. Martin D's vote on my reeked of a future excuse the way he explained it. And then the ntn-Telle dynamic.

Can you quote Martin D's post you are talking about?

[Alan T]

What was the ntn-telle dynamic? That might have occurred while I was traveling today.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm a bit confused here - finding it hard to work out where to put my vote...

The two main candidates appear to be PB and ntn - don't really want to vote for ntn, as it seems to me that the main reason for him getting votes is that he wasn't around for most of the day (at which point I'm feeling a bit fortunate that I didn't get nailed for that one!), but a vote for PB seems a bit too much like bandwagon-jumping.

I don't see much point in voting for someone else at this point, as almost everyone else is a long way back.

Not absolutely sure about this one, but:

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Will be on for the next 20 minutes or so - may change this if I feel there's sufficient reason.

There are all kind of ways he could've gone and says voting for me is bandwagon jumping, don't feel sure about it...vote PB. It sounds like setting up an excuse for later.

[dubb93]

Hehe, thanks EF. Look, this is where if I had a role of real importance, I would reveal...



...but I think my role is only mildly important and I can't reveal anyway. So villagers, you aren't losing a ton by voting me off.

Come on guys. A wolf doesn't go down fighting like this.

[Alan T]

Come on guys. A wolf doesn't go down fighting like this.

I think I disagree , since I have seen all kinds of methods wolves use to try to get out of lynch (over the top huffiness, silent reservation, misleading, faked reveal, etc).

I do appreciate PB's participating in this mini-discussion though. I notice Eaglefan sitting around watching without much thought. EF, what are your thoughts on PB since you have your vote on him. Why do you feel he is a good lynch choice?

[Passacaglia]

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I don't have much reason to vote for him.. but I don't like the other options either. I've stated my case against voting for ntndeacon due to "tendency to be quiet". I also think it's too easy for wolves to hide a vote on EagleFan and claim it's because of his vote jumping (note that Passacaglia vote jumped a lot today too.. 5 different votes). So let's keep this a three-horse race and see how things shake out.

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.

Yep. I thought it was *crazy* that EF was catching so much heat for it, but no one mentioned that I did it.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm with you on this. I don't like the idea of just voting for the guy that you don't like the play style of.. that discourages people from playing at all. So I'm going to vote for the person that last voted for ntndeacon, especially since he already has one vote on him.

VOTE ABE

Well I had already stated my thoughts on why I didn't want to vote for ntndeacon. And just like you, I thought perhaps it would be best to start a third candidate. I just didn't see you and EagleFan put votes on PurdueBrad before I voted.

Right now I'm just waiting to see how things move forward choosing one of the likely candidates.

Ah, well in that case I already stated why I voted for Abe. He was the last one to add a vote to ntndeacon, and he already had a vote so I wasn't spreading out the field further.

I'll most likely be moving my vote at some point since we have three people with three+ votes and there doesn't appear to be any movement on Abe. Problem is it's Day 1 and there's not much reason to vote for one of those three over the other two. I don't like the idea of voting for ntndeacon for reasons previously stated. I think EagleFan was just playing around and don't see his vote hopping as suspect. And I think PurdueBrad just got an unfortunate run on him without much real reason.

You do recall that you actually stated that you picked PurdueBrad's name "out of a hat". I at least had some plausible reason for picking who I did for a third candidate.

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I don't have much reason to vote for him.. but I don't like the other options either. I've stated my case against voting for ntndeacon due to "tendency to be quiet". I also think it's too easy for wolves to hide a vote on EagleFan and claim it's because of his vote jumping (note that Passacaglia vote jumped a lot today too.. 5 different votes). So let's keep this a three-horse race and see how things shake out.

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.

This is over a 2 hour period approximately. And her vote on me came just shortly after I moved to ntn.

[EagleFan]

That's definitely not how I usually see PB go down.

Hmm, that didn't sound as bad before I typed it.

[Alan T]

Ok, so you feel Telle's posts and actions were trying to protect ntn, and you feel that it is more then just being against voting someone for being quiet?

I personally don't have a problem with voting quiet people out if no other options show up myself, just curious why specifically Telle when other people mentioned the same reservations about voting for ntn?

[PurdueBrad]

Her Abe vote was about protecting ntn, her me vote pushed that agenda as well, I don't think anybody else did that twice.

[PurdueBrad]

Ok, so you feel Telle's posts and actions were trying to protect ntn, and you feel that it is more then just being against voting someone for being quiet?

I personally don't have a problem with voting quiet people out if no other options show up myself, just curious why specifically Telle when other people mentioned the same reservations about voting for ntn?

Was Abe quiet or was I?

[PurdueBrad]

Sorry, misunderstood what you said, ignore above.

[EagleFan]

I think I disagree , since I have seen all kinds of methods wolves use to try to get out of lynch (over the top huffiness, silent reservation, misleading, faked reveal, etc).

I do appreciate PB's participating in this mini-discussion though. I notice Eaglefan sitting around watching without much thought. EF, what are your thoughts on PB since you have your vote on him. Why do you feel he is a good lynch choice?

Sorry, in and out of the room making chili. My vote is only there because it was there before the run. I have no feel that he is a wolf at this point to be honest. Usually he has claimed to be seer by now if he were a wolf. :)

I was hoping to be able to hop my vote around some more today (to play up the whole theme of the game a bit) but then it looked like I needed it as self defense.

I would not be against moving my vote but that wouldn't help me much at the moment, unless I move it to ntn as it will be a wash for me at that point.

[PurdueBrad]

Alan, ask yourself, on day 1 would you move to protect someone that is quiet when everything seems to be a shot in the dark anyway? Come on, I think you know better than that.

[Alan T]

Alan, ask yourself, on day 1 would you move to protect someone that is quiet when everything seems to be a shot in the dark anyway? Come on, I think you know better than that.

I'm just asking questions, I don't think you want to be snippy with me when I can easily vote you here :)

[PurdueBrad]

And frankly, I can't get irritated about anything right now, Pens up 2-0.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm just asking questions, I don't think you want to be snippy with me when I can easily vote you here :)

I didn't think I was being snippy, my point was that I think you and I both know that that is a hell of an odd choice for someone and then to do it twice on day 1.

[PurdueBrad]

Oh, another reason I can't vote for EF: See my sig.

[Passacaglia]

I'm just asking questions, I don't think you want to be snippy with me when I can easily vote you here :)

He didn't really seem snippy to me. Why would you vote for someone for being snippy, anyway? I know we don't have much to go on during Day 1, but we're voting to catch wolves, not snippy people.

[dubb93]

Alan, ask yourself, on day 1 would you move to protect someone that is quiet when everything seems to be a shot in the dark anyway? Come on, I think you know better than that.

If you are so sure in the Telle - NtN thing why not answer your questions and move your vote to NtN. Not only does it give you insight into that dynamic it also serves to give you some breathing room.

[Alan T]

I didn't think I was being snippy, my point was that I think you and I both know that that is a hell of an odd choice for someone and then to do it twice on day 1.


There were alot of things I found odd about people's votes today. :)

[EagleFan]

And frankly, I can't get irritated about anything right now, Pens up 2-0.

By the look of you sig I guess I am happy about that too.

[dubb93]

It just seems like it is going to be hard to get someone else to come in and save you when you seem to be phoning it in with a throwaway vote.

[Poli]

UNVOTE ABE
VOTE TELLE

I'm not in a PB happy camp after last camp, but I'm rushed and I think his thinking is just as good as anyone else's.

[Poli]

SONOFA
UNVOTE ABE
VOTE TELLE

[PurdueBrad]

If you are so sure in the Telle - NtN thing why not answer your questions and move your vote to NtN. Not only does it give you insight into that dynamic it also serves to give you some breathing room.

unvote Telle


vote ntn

[Poli]

Gotta go, I'm late for church, that by no means is a hit and run.

[Alan T]

He didn't really seem snippy to me. Why would you vote for someone for being snippy, anyway? I know we don't have much to go on during Day 1, but we're voting to catch wolves, not snippy people.


I think your definition of snippy is different then mine. He had been up till that point responding in a way that seemed at least somewhat realistic , which is different then how Eaglefan responded to the few questions I asked him (although EF said he was distracted I guess). Then PB turned to the "Come on you know better" arguement which never sits well with me. At least it isn't very conductive to discussion that was occurring. My point is I can instead of trying to spend time and getting a feel for which way I want to vote, to just vote for him and get it over with. (Since even though he is leading by one vote right now, it is essentially tied since he can move his vote at will)

[Poli]

unvote Telle


vote ntn
Why you son of a.

[PurdueBrad]

Okay, I'm between those two. If you guys go Telle, I'm going there. If it stays ntn, I'm going there. Poli, thanks.

[PurdueBrad]

Poli, sorry. That is my preference, although frankly for my reasoning one is likely as good as the other.

[PurdueBrad]

*as good a choice as the other that is

[dubb93]

Now we have a tie?

[Alan T]

Poli, sorry. That is my preference, although frankly for my reasoning one is likely as good as the other.

I guess that is what I was asking earlier.. you said your vote was on Telle instead of ntn because of the telle - ntn factor. If that was the case, why keep it on telle and not just move it to ntn. I did not get that. It felt more to me that you were doing two things.. 1) Trying to keep options open and 2) keep ntn's vote count lower in order to attract more votes to him. (People are more likely to tie it up then to vote someone ahead in those cases)

[Alan T]

Now we have a tie?

Yes, 5-5

[PurdueBrad]

I think ntn might be up by 1. I'll make it a tie by voting what Ibelieve since Poli stood by me:

unvote ntn

vote telle

[Passacaglia]

I think your definition of snippy is different then mine. He had been up till that point responding in a way that seemed at least somewhat realistic , which is different then how Eaglefan responded to the few questions I asked him (although EF said he was distracted I guess). Then PB turned to the "Come on you know better" arguement which never sits well with me. At least it isn't very conductive to discussion that was occurring. My point is I can instead of trying to spend time and getting a feel for which way I want to vote, to just vote for him and get it over with. (Since even though he is leading by one vote right now, it is essentially tied since he can move his vote at will)

I hear you on that -- although I think that kind of talk happens by many on here. Your post just came off like "be nice to me or I'll vote you"

[PurdueBrad]

Ah, no biggie, just saw that that put me up by 1. If I'm going down in this one, I'll go down with what I believe, right or wrong. Thanks Poli, and I do mean that.

[Alan T]

Ah, no biggie, just saw that that put me up by 1. If I'm going down in this one, I'll go down with what I believe, right or wrong. Thanks Poli, and I do mean that.


I still don't get this. If you believe ntn and Telle are conspiring together, you are going to go down to a lynch by not voting ntn?? :confused:

[PurdueBrad]

My point is I can instead of trying to spend time and getting a feel for which way I want to vote, to just vote for him and get it over with. (Since even though he is leading by one vote right now, it is essentially tied since he can move his vote at will)

And that's the other reason I pulled the self-defense vote off. That was meant more as I believe that Alan is intelligent and would likely see it the same way as me. But if I wasn't nice, then I deserve to be voted for and the time shouldn't be wasted on getting my side.

[Alan T]

I hear you on that -- although I think that kind of talk happens by many on here. Your post just came off like "be nice to me or I'll vote you"


Oh I'm not afraid to use a be nice to me or I'll vote you.. but I'm trying to play differently because of out of game reasons (imo) now. So instead of just assuming I know best, I guess I'm trying to actually understand reasoning.

In the following cases:

PB - I don't understand his reason for telle over ntn
EF - Seems like he doesn't have a good reason other than it is not him
NTN - didn't really say much other than don't vote for him.

So it is a struggle :)

[Alan T]

Alan is intelligent


Sure.. butter me up. Wolves NEVER do that! :)

[PurdueBrad]

Alan, I read your comment the same way Pass did. So maybe it's my misunderstanding.

[EagleFan]

Is suicidal one of the hidden roles?

[PurdueBrad]

Ha, not here if it is. Although I guess my win condition would be dying!

[Alan T]

For the record, this 8pm deadline is horrible! :)

My daughter has to go to bed in a minute, and I'm still undecided. Once I leave, I likely won't get back before the deadline.. so guess I need to decide.

[PurdueBrad]

At least deadline is between periods.

[EagleFan]

I am confused by one thing PB. If you feel there is a Telle/ntn connection why not go after the one of those two that will help get your tail out of the fire?

[PurdueBrad]

Will I probably switch, yeah, but I have a stronger feeling of Telle's play than ntn's. The dynamic between the two was much more her and may have been to garner trust. So it's going to be interesting if my desire to stick with what I believe or self-preservation wins out here.

[PurdueBrad]

*Garner his trust, that is.

[Passacaglia]

For the record, this 8pm deadline is horrible! :)

My daughter has to go to bed in a minute, and I'm still undecided. Once I leave, I likely won't get back before the deadline.. so guess I need to decide.

Well since you only have 7 to decide, it's not a big deal!

[ntndeacon]

Although I am glad someone was in my corner before Icould be. If Telle is a needie, then she is using my soon to be discovered innocence to enhance her reputation.

[Danny]

As of post 606:

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
4 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595), NTNDeacon (603)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
4- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532)
3 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668), PurdueBrad (679)

[The Jackal]

Wow, quite the run on PB - quick updated vote count?

[The Jackal]

way to be, danny

[Alan T]

ok, I guess I'll bite the bullet and see if there is anything about ntn. I'll not vote PB primarily because he was willing to at least discuss things with me. I considered voting EF, but with the way the votes currently are, this seems the better choice.

Vote ntndeacon

[PurdueBrad]

ntn, if I have to switch to you for self-defense AND you're good, then I am sorry.

[ntndeacon]

Unvote PB
Vote Telle
if this gets folks off me iam all for it

[Danny]

Deadline is in two minutes

[Passacaglia]

way to be, danny

Not what post that is as of..606. We're at 696. I think PB has one more than ntn, but PB can vote ntn.

[Passacaglia]

oh, man -- so how many votes are on telle now?

[PurdueBrad]

ntn, I'm staying if you're staying.

[Alan T]

ntn, if I have to switch to you for self-defense AND you're good, then I am sorry.


Leave it in a tie, lets see what the mechanic is :)

Or see if anyone tries to save anyone

[ntndeacon]

UNvote Telle
Vote EF

[The Jackal]

I think I haven't been around enough in the past couple hours to warrant a late vote switch here, unless someone has an amazing reason why one of the others is a better candidate.

[The Jackal]

So yeah, I'm sticking with it.

[Alan T]

Leave it in a tie, lets see what the mechanic is :)

Or see if anyone tries to save anyone


Nevermind, ntn moved his vote.

[PurdueBrad]

unvote telle
vote ntn

[ntndeacon]

sorry I thought that was an accurate vote

[EagleFan]

[v]unvoter PB

vote ntn[/b]

[Alan T]

5-5 tie between EF and ntn now with that vote by ntn

[PurdueBrad]

I don't have a read on EF and that pushed it.

[Passacaglia]

God damint I hate it when I don't have my vote spreadsheet here.

[PurdueBrad]

EF, this is your chance to f*** me over if you're bad.

[Alan T]

Well with PB's vote, ntn gets lynched. No vote from DT though or did I just miss it?

[ntndeacon]

I think all the wolves are on me

[EagleFan]

Didn't like ntn's last minute attempted surprise there.

[Danny]

Deadline

[ntndeacon]

starting with PB

[PurdueBrad]

Didn't like ntn's last minute attempted surprise there.

+1 which is what won me out. I NOW believe in my vote.

[Danny]

I will begin processing the results.

[ntndeacon]

I was trying to survive

[Passacaglia]

I think all the wolves are on me

doesn't everyone?

[ntndeacon]

Good Luck therapy goers

[Danny]

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
4 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
6- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699), PurdueBrad (711)
2 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668)

[PurdueBrad]

doesn't everyone?

Which is why I caught myself short of the same accusation.

[Danny]

Oh missed PB's switch, will update

[PurdueBrad]

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
4 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
5- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699)
3 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668), PurdueBrad (679)

Does this look right?

NO, PB on ntn at the end and EF on there as well.

[dubb93]

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
4 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
5- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699)
3 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668), PurdueBrad (679)

Does this look right?

No.

[Autumn]

Wow, lots of movement. I've got to get my son to bed then will catch up.

[ntndeacon]

Danny Unfortunately PB voted for me at the end

[Danny]

Yeah I caught that and posted that I fixed it.

[hoopsguy]

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
4 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
6- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699), PurdueBrad (711)
2 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668)

[v]unvoter PB

vote ntn[/b]

Did EF's non-bolded (seems due to bad tags?) at 8:00PM on the nose count? If not, for which reason (non-bold, time, both, neither) ... would like to know for future reference.

[dubb93]

Did EF's non-bolded (seems due to bad tags?) at 8:00PM on the nose count? If not, for which reason (non-bold, time, both, neither) ... would like to know for future reference.

I think it should count. If I was GM I would count it atleast.

[hoopsguy]

NM, looks like it was counted. So we won't learn tie mechanic here, but that more or less eliminates the "oops, I goofed up my vote switch!" excuse for later.

[claphamsa]

4-0 and a lolodore sighting :)

[dubb93]

NM, looks like it was counted. So we won't learn tie mechanic here, but that more or less eliminates the "oops, I goofed up my vote switch!" excuse for later.

Huh? Seemed self defense to me. I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

[hoopsguy]

I think it should count. If I was GM I would count it atleast.

Whatever way breaks right for the villagers is the way I want it to go :) But seriously, the earlier vote count didn't show it so I wanted to make sure I understood the moderator ruling on that vote.

[PurdueBrad]

On ESPN 1000 today I heard them saying that there were tickets going for as much as $12k second-hand market today. I would be really pissed right now if I were a Caps fan and paid that.

[hoopsguy]

Huh? Seemed self defense to me. I'm not sure what you are getting at here.

I was a little late to the party, but I thought the switch was by EF to break tie between PB and NTN. Which would not be self-defense.

I'll go back and double-check this now.

[EagleFan]

NM, looks like it was counted. So we won't learn tie mechanic here, but that more or less eliminates the "oops, I goofed up my vote switch!" excuse for later.

It was a frantically typed vote after I saw ntn's late switch. I didn't repost it when I saw the time of that post and that I had screwed up the formatting. I'm fine with whatever the decision is.

[hoopsguy]

Oops, Dubb you had it right.

[EagleFan]

I was a little late to the party, but I thought the switch was by EF to break tie between PB and NTN. Which would not be self-defense.

I'll go back and double-check this now.

Definitely self defense when you see someone switch to you late and you have no idea what the vote count is at that point.

[Danny]

I'll count EF's vote, though NTN was the leading vote getter anyway.

1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
3 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
7- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699), PurdueBrad (711), EagneFan (713)
2 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668)

[hoopsguy]

Well, no role reveal from any of the players down the stretch other than PB saying "not a big role here". I'm hoping that is a good sign.

[Danny]

Today there is discussion over who has shown the greatest enlightenment and no longer needs therapy. The vote comes down to PurdueBrad, EagleFan, ntndeacon and Telle. Apparently the craziness displayed by EF and PB was enough to convince you they still needed therapy. And Telle, well you guys need a girl in the group, right? So, with that, it is decided that ntndeacon no longer needs therapy and will be removed from the group.

As he leaves the group, something doesn’t seem quite right and that eerie feeling you had at the beginning of the therapy is still there.

ntndeacon was the talker, a member of the group

The Talker- You are a group member who wins with the group. Once a night you may select a player to talk the ear off of and thus prevent them from taking any other night action. There are a number of roles that when you talk to, you will prevent their night action, this includes villager (such as a seer scan) and wolf actions. You will not know whether or not you prevented an action. If you talk to a wolf that is making the kill, you will prevent the night kill. You will not know whether it was your action or another that caused the no night kill. You may only talk to each player once per game as after one night with you they will avoid you for the rest of the game. If there are no players left alive who you have not talked to, your ability is used up. You are not required to use this action.

[EagleFan]

I had a feeling that Moyer should have retired on a high note after the Series...