MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

[Councilmann_Jamm]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Scroll down to where it says Player Value-Batting and WAR is listed by season. The way we're calculating is using 60% 2017 WAR, 30% 2016 WAR and 10% 2015 WAR. So for example with Sandy Leon:

2017: -.1 x 6 = -.6
2016: .7 x 3 = 2.1
2015: 2.8 x 1 = 2.8

2.8+2.1+.6= 4.3 divided by 3 = 1.43 WAR

So 1.43 (WAR) x 3 (Years Left) = 4.29 x 8.5 = Total Surplus Value

Total Value - Contract Worth = Total Value


Just trying to figure out how Manny Machado is only worth 6 million dollars more than Sandy Leon for trading purposes. If you were to offer Machado today you'd get good prospects back while Sandy Leon would net you a Lottery Ticket

[beekay415]

MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

I'm not necessarily opposed to using this. With that said, we've found that Fangraphs displays far more upside in their assesments of WAR. Sometimes players have a WAR that is 4 full points higher than what we use (Baseball Reference). I'm wondering if maybe deducting .25 per year after 32 and then .5 after 35 would be best. Although I'd have to get some unanimous agreement on that from the guys who respond because we haven't had a set takeaway from older players.

Yeah I was just throwing that out there to get the convo going and possibly come up with something.

How I was thinking and I’m not sure it cane out this way, let’s say you have a 35 year old player and it’s a last 3 season avg war of 4. Under contract till his 40. You’d project out his next 5 seasons.

36- 3.5, 37-3 38-2.5, 39-2 and 40-1.5 then add all those up including his 4 avg and divide by the years left and you get a new war of 3.3.

Not terribly lower but still a way to factor in regression due to age

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[alston4659]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

So I'm currently 22-13 in my Phillies franchise and I for the most part was looking forward to making it through the entire season while using the current roster as is (OSFM 1.5) but I've already made a trade that probably wasn't too realistic which is why I'm here as I'm interested in making more moves. I want those moves to be as realistic as possible so I'm glad a thread like this one exists. I look at the trading block to see who's available from time to time as I'm trying to unload Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera and Jake Arrieta, the latter simply because of his contract and the other two because I just don't see them sticking around in my franchise long term. I'm also thinking about getting rid of JP Crawford as I don't see him turning into the type of stud the real life Phillies think he will.

So im looking to sure up my outfield, first base and shortstop so I've already traded pitcher Henderson Alverez, outfielder Tom Lustig and third baseman Matt Dominguez, all of whom I picked up via free agency at the start of the season to the Cards for outfielder Marcell Ozuna. I know the Cards traded for him before the season started in real life and while they may have him in their future plans, he was on the trading block which to me signaled they didn't want to pay him next season as he's in the final year of his contract. I'll gladly pay him as he'll sure up either right field or center field for me depending on if I can get Harper in the offseason.

So was that a solid or fair or realistic trade, probably not but what's done is done and that's why I'm here. So looking at the trading block again I see that Austin Barnes, the catcher for the Dodgers is available and it would only cost me one of my outfield prospects. I didn't mention that catcher was a need for me but I'm not liking my guys at the moment so Barnes could be an upgrade. My question is what would be a fair trade to acquire him. I also want to mention that the Phillies have an abundance of very good prospect pitchers so I made some lateral trades to acquire some outfield and infield talent and I thought those trades were pretty even. Next up I want to acquire starting pitcher Anthony DeScalfani of the Reds who's having a pretty good season in the game. He could replace Arrieta if I end up getting rid of him. He would cost me an outfield prospect as well according to the game so what do you guys think would be a fair offer? While he's not on the block, Jose Ramirez has caught my eye as a possible replacement for Crawford at SS. He's a great hitter and can play multiple positions. He would cost me Arrieta straight up but they already have 3 top notch starting pitchers so I may build a trade for him around Santana and Crawford. But I may want to hold off on that trade as the Rangers say Joey Gallo for Crawford would get that trade done. Joey would sure up first base in the event that I unload Santana. I know this is a lot but I'd really appreciate some feedback.

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

So 1.43 (WAR) x 3 (Years Left) = 4.29 x 8.5 = Total Surplus Value

Total Value - Contract Worth = Total Value


Just trying to figure out how Manny Machado is only worth 6 million dollars more than Sandy Leon for trading purposes. If you were to offer Machado today you'd get good prospects back while Sandy Leon would net you a Lottery Ticket

38.61-6.95(assumption)= 31.7M Surplus

Machado has 43.4M Surplus going off of my math earlier. So Machado technically has a larger surplus of 11.7M. Keep in mind, that is for a single year (likely less) of Machado. That effects Machado's surplus. Leon has three years of control. At the same time, it will be easier to find a home for Machado than Leon, likely.

Yeah I was just throwing that out there to get the convo going and possibly come up with something.

How I was thinking and I’m not sure it cane out this way, let’s say you have a 35 year old player and it’s a last 3 season avg war of 4. Under contract till his 40. You’d project out his next 5 seasons.

36- 3.5, 37-3 38-2.5, 39-2 and 40-1.5 then add all those up including his 4 avg and divide by the years left and you get a new war of 3.3.

Not terribly lower but still a way to factor in regression due to age

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Yeah I definitely don't think it's a bad idea. Bard is really on top of his stuff so I think he factors in regression but it might be good, again, to have a set number.

[Councilmann_Jamm]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

38.61-6.95(assumption)= 31.7M Surplus

Machado has 43.4M Surplus going off of my math earlier. So Machado technically has a larger surplus of 11.7M. Keep in mind, that is for a single year (likely less) of Machado. That effects Machado's surplus. Leon has three years of control. At the same time, it will be easier to find a home for Machado than Leon, likely.

Just did Machado. Not questioning you. Just want to get a better understanding.


4.82 x 1 = 4.82 WAR x 8.5 = 40.97

40.97 (WAR Surplus) - 16 (1 Year Contract Worth) = 24.97 Surplus

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Just did Machado. Not questioning you. Just want to get a better understanding.


4.82 x 1 = 4.82 WAR x 8.5 = 40.97

40.97 (WAR Surplus) - 16 (1 Year Contract Worth) = 24.97 Surplus

We're using 9 for WAR, not 8.5 That could be part of the problem.

3.4 x 6 = 20.4
6.9 x 3 = 20.7
7.1 x 1 = 7.1

48.2 div by 10 = 4.82 WAR x 9 x 1 = 43.38 - 16 = 27.4M Surplus

So you are right, our numbers are higher on Machado. I'm pretty sure there was a reason for the numbers being higher but we'll have to check.

[beekay415]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

I think this is where it came from

Hi friends.

Machado is worth in the range of $18-23 million in surplus. Add in about $20 million with in-division trading of a superstar and he is sitting around $40 million in surplus.

Flaherty + O'Neil are probably a bit of an overpay, but that will do. Take out Munoz.

The Blue Jays probably won't take anything outside of Sheffield and Chance Adams. Have to add about $20 million in surplus for in-division trading.

That is probably the best possible deal for Fulmer. But it still isn't enough...

Fulmer is stupid valuable. $164 million I believe?

Choo deal is fine for what it is.

Take out one of Delino or Tocci and that deal is fine. Heyward is still decently valuable and Happ is an interesting get. I don't see why the Cubs would do this, but if it means they have a shot at Harper they would do it. Not the most realistic for sure.

Honestly, no chance on the last two. Yankees would want Tomas, and the Diamondbacks won't trade their franchise player. They would probably prefer to show their fans they made a good offer and he went elsewhere.

Why would the White Sox do that? They're rebuilding.

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[Yankees247]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

We're using 9 for WAR, not 8.5 That could be part of the problem.

3.4 x 6 = 20.4
6.9 x 3 = 20.7
7.1 x 1 = 7.1

48.2 div by 10 = 4.82 WAR x 9 x 1 = 43.38 - 16 = 27.4M Surplus

So you are right, our numbers are higher on Machado. I'm pretty sure there was a reason for the numbers being higher but we'll have to check.

The number was higher because it was talked about a trade to the yankees which gives him an additional 15 million in surplus because of inter division

[Bard]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

I think this is where it came from








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So there was a $4 million gap? Or what's going on?

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

The number was higher because it was talked about a trade to the yankees which gives him an additional 15 million in surplus because of inter division

That is exactly what it was! Good find. I knew we had a reason for pricing him higher.

So 42 Mill for AL East, 27Mill everywhere else.

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

So there was a $4 million gap? Or what's going on?

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Nah, I put Machado's value as what his surplus would be for an inner-division team as opposed to what it actually is for the rest of the league.

Edit: While you are here, we were looking at deducting .25 from Future WAR for players aged 32-34 and then .5 from Future WAR for players 35 and older. Does that sound legitimate to you? This came up as we were talking about Cano's ridiculous surplus despite being contracted through age 40.

[Buccosback]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

At first i was going for realism but now i just want it to be fair trades.

I am the Pirates.

What would these players cost me?

Vlad Jr.

Acuna

Willie Calhoun from Rangers

Really only care about keeping Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon and Austin Meadows

[jdiaz891]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

So i wanna move Danny Duffy off the royals roster to help with the rebuild. Im getting a surplus value of -33.26. Is that correct or am i doing something wrong. Its my first time trying this. Im using fan graphs WAR numbers for the last 3 years.

Also is there any team that would actually take Ian Kennedy with that bad contract?

[beekay415]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

So i wanna move Danny Duffy off the royals roster to help with the rebuild. Im getting a surplus value of -33.26. Is that correct or am i doing something wrong. Its my first time trying this. Im using fan graphs WAR numbers for the last 3 years.

Also is there any team that would actually take Ian Kennedy with that bad contract?

I got 24.24 using my phone, someone might wanna double check my math though


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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

So i wanna move Danny Duffy off the royals roster to help with the rebuild. Im getting a surplus value of -33.26. Is that correct or am i doing something wrong. Its my first time trying this. Im using fan graphs WAR numbers for the last 3 years.

Also is there any team that would actually take Ian Kennedy with that bad contract?

Hmm. I’m getting 56.6M in surplus for Duffy. You should be fine to move him.

As for Ian Kennedy, he had -9.6M surplus. You can move him to a team that really needs a bullpen piece but he’s not going to bring you back anything. You’re looking at a low lottery ticket piece in return for him.