2013 Toronto Blue Jays

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

I read a good study on inconsistency. To be simple, guys who are inconsistent gas can a lot, but they also have greater peaks to go along with greater valleys, as opposed to consistent guys who perform equally mot of the time. In the end, it's more or less a wash, with a slight lean to inconsistency. So I'm not concerned about that.

E: And no, this study wasn't with advanced metrics. It was done using runs scored and basic stuff like strikeouts, I think. I'll try and find it tomorrow.

[SPTO]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Personally I go with a mix of the eye test/traditional stats/and i'm starting to come around to sabermetrics (damn you Brian Kenny!)

[Clarke99]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

I read a good study on inconsistency. To be simple, guys who are inconsistent gas can a lot, but they also have greater peaks to go along with greater valleys, as opposed to consistent guys who perform equally mot of the time. In the end, it's more or less a wash, with a slight lean to inconsistency. So I'm not concerned about that.

E: And no, this study wasn't with advanced metrics. It was done using runs scored and basic stuff like strikeouts, I think. I'll try and find it tomorrow.

hmm interesting... seems fair. I guess im just more comfortable with the thought of consistent, knowing what you're getting almost every time out. Perhaps I overvalue it. this convo is in part why sports gambling makes billions, sports can never be scripted.

Back to the Jays, I will say this, I firmly believe they will rebound in 14, not sure they'll contend but should easily have a better record than last season. A lot of people seem to believe they'll flop and that last season is the ceiling of every player lol its crazy when you talk to people about their projections for the new season.
Then again it is Toronto... tough times around here, hopefully the Raps can keep up the pace for the rest of the year considering they're in the worst division of all time lol

[bhurst99]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Back to the Jays, I will say this, I firmly believe they will rebound in 14, not sure they'll contend but should easily have a better record than last season. A lot of people seem to believe they'll flop and that last season is the ceiling of every player lol its crazy when you talk to people about their projections for the new season.
Then again it is Toronto... tough times around here, hopefully the Raps can keep up the pace for the rest of the year considering they're in the worst division of all time lol

Without a better starting staff, there will be no rebound.

I don't think every player has hit their ceiling -- far from it -- but I wouldn't expect better seasons out of Dickey and Buerle simply because of their ages. If they turn in similar seasons to what they did in 2013 I would be happy with that. I'm not expecting much from Hutchison because he'll be on a strict innings limit this year because of the injury and the fact he's pitched like 100 innings over the past two seasons. It's not like he was dominating before he got hurt.

Morrow is a real wild card. I don't know what to expect. He was terrible before his season ended last year but was he terrible because he pitched hurt? But again he's going to be another guy the team will put on an innings limit. I can't see him throwing more than 170 innings even if he is healthy. He could be great or he could pitch like six innings, allow three runs and strike out 8 or 9 which wouldn't be horrible but wouldn't be great if he's going against our opponent's best pitcher.

My concern is who goes up against the other team's ace and gives us a chance to stay close and win. Is Dickey our ace? I'm not liking a Dickey versus Verlander match-up or even a Jon Lester vs Dickey match-up. Every fifth day I see this being a major, major problem with the rotation set up as it is right now.

[bhurst99]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

But no, Santana has a career 100 xFIP- and him in the Rogers Centre would be hilarious.

Disagree. Santana's last four starts at Rogers Centre

Aug. 12, 2011: 9 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 HRA
Aug. 19, 2011: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 HRA
June 29, 2012: 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 HRA
Aug. 30, 2013: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 HRA

So out of his past three starts, one was lousy and three were good. Sure it's a small sample size and he loves to give up the long ball but I don't think we shouldn't sign him for that reason.

[SPTO]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Regarding Dickey, he could rebound and have a similar season to his year with the Mets. He's a knuckleballer and those guys can have wild variations from year to year. Age doesn't really play a factor for them though with Dickey it might a bit as he throws harder than most other knuckleballers of the past.

[Clarke99]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Without a better starting staff, there will be no rebound.

I don't think every player has hit their ceiling -- far from it -- but I wouldn't expect better seasons out of Dickey and Buerle simply because of their ages. If they turn in similar seasons to what they did in 2013 I would be happy with that. I'm not expecting much from Hutchison because he'll be on a strict innings limit this year because of the injury and the fact he's pitched like 100 innings over the past two seasons. It's not like he was dominating before he got hurt.

Morrow is a real wild card. I don't know what to expect. He was terrible before his season ended last year but was he terrible because he pitched hurt? But again he's going to be another guy the team will put on an innings limit. I can't see him throwing more than 170 innings even if he is healthy. He could be great or he could pitch like six innings, allow three runs and strike out 8 or 9 which wouldn't be horrible but wouldn't be great if he's going against our opponent's best pitcher.

My concern is who goes up against the other team's ace and gives us a chance to stay close and win. Is Dickey our ace? I'm not liking a Dickey versus Verlander match-up or even a Jon Lester vs Dickey match-up. Every fifth day I see this being a major, major problem with the rotation set up as it is right now.

I hear ya, Dickey and Buehrle I honestly expect the exact same for the most part as last year, maybe a bit better from RA but not by much. But im not sure I just think there is still some depth even if its all unproven someone SHOULD step up into a decent pitcher (hutch and company)

I really hope they use Stroman in june to be a 2 inning set up man than move him to rotation in 15, this formula is working for young pitchers lately (think cardinals)

Offense will be solid, as for an ace vs ace scenario that might effect maybe 3-5 wins over a season, baseball is too unpredictable. However I totally agree in a playoff format if we made it there that could be trouble

Garza 4 years 52 Mil to Brewers... sounds like a Jays contract...

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

So out of his past three starts, one was lousy and three were good. Sure it's a small sample size and he loves to give up the long ball but I don't think we shouldn't sign him for that reason.

You just cannot make a $60 million decision based on 27 innings.

[bhurst99]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

You just cannot make a $60 million decision based on 27 innings.

Agreed. But there's no reason to think that him pitching at Rogers Centre would be "hillarious". The evidence is that he's pitched pretty well in Toronto.

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Put a home run-prone pitcher in a hitter's park and the results won't be very good, but that's not my main point. My main point is that Santana doesn't have great stuff and I don't think that much money for that long is worth it for him.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Ground ball pitchers are really what Jays need. Look at how well Halladay did despite being in the AL East,all because of the ground balls. In his best seasons he got around 60% ground balls. When going to Philly,the number dropped alot,because he could afford to do it in Philly.

And no surprise...some of the best pitchers on Jays last year all had some of the teams highest GB%(while struggling people like Morrow,Dickey,Johnson all were some of the worst at getting ground balls)

AJ Burnett and Paul Maholm are both FAs who have good groundball(and ERA) numbers in past few seasons.

Jimenez was also a good pitcher at getting ground balls when he was with Rockies. So he'd be used to pitching in a HR friendly park where he needs to throw like that.

Ervin Santana on the other hand...not so much. HR will prob kill him at Rogers Centre.

[bhurst99]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays annual State of the Franchise takes place at Rogers Centre on Wednesday.

How ugly do you think that meeting will be?

This is the same meeting where in 2012 Paul Beeston said he expected the club to make the playoffs two or three times in the following five years. I wonder if he's still willing to stick to that expectation.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

If only season ticket holders were the insanely vocal fans. Just start off the whole thing with people booing the entire time lol.

[SPTO]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

It'll be interesting to see what comes out of the State of the Franchise meeting. I know season ticket holders are usually quiet but I think there's enough disappointment and frustration that there'll be some pointed questions asked. We'll see how defensive Beeston, AA and Gibby get.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Sounds like Jays have interest in Kendrys Morales but obviously can't have him if Lind and EE are both on roster(since 1B-DH are only spots those guys play)

Wonder what type of pitcher or 2B the Jays could get if they traded Lind straight up for them.


And I'm surprised Jays aren't going harder after the compensation SP like Jimenez considering the compensation is a 2nd round pick since our 1sts are protected. Since teams only have a certain amount to sign the draft picks, wouldn't that be a good deal for us? If we can get a SP and it'd just cost us a 2nd(compared to a 1st for other teams), that'd be 1 less player we have to sign meaning more money left over for the team to spend on the other draft picks.