CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

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  • ImTellinTim
    YNWA
    • Sep 2006
    • 33028

    #1456
    Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

    I'd like to know what they're even using for projections. I don't trust any of the numbers coming out. There is limited testing, especially in lower population areas. The testing has a turnaround time. If they determine that you are having a mild case, don't test you, tell you to stay at home, and you suddenly take a turn for the worse and die at home...I don't even think that gets counted as a death.

    Getting accurate real time data in the current testing environment is impossible. So the projections are really just all over the place.

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    • DocHolliday
      Farewell and 'ado
      • Oct 2002
      • 4698

      #1457
      Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

      “Models” are that particular person/organizations way of getting out there agenda. It always has been. What numbers are they even using exactly?

      Pure speculation that people take as gospel.




      Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports
      GT: Event Horizon 0

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      • KG
        Welcome Back
        • Sep 2005
        • 17583

        #1458
        Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

        Originally posted by DocHolliday
        “Models” are that particular person/organizations way of getting out there agenda. It always has been. What numbers are they even using exactly?

        Pure speculation that people take as gospel.




        Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

        I mean you’re/we’re dealing with so many variables that any early projection/model was more than likely going to be fairly off.

        Not too mention you’re modeling something that in itself can change and adapt (viruses).


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        Twitter Instagram - kgx2thez

        Comment

        • Chip Douglass
          Hall Of Fame
          • Dec 2005
          • 12256

          #1459
          Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

          Originally posted by ImTellinTim
          I'd like to know what they're even using for projections. I don't trust any of the numbers coming out. There is limited testing, especially in lower population areas. The testing has a turnaround time. If they determine that you are having a mild case, don't test you, tell you to stay at home, and you suddenly take a turn for the worse and die at home...I don't even think that gets counted as a death.

          Getting accurate real time data in the current testing environment is impossible. So the projections are really just all over the place.
          Most of these countries are just reporting hospital deaths, I think, so deaths at home/nursing facilities aren't being recorded.

          This isn't even mentioning indirect deaths happening downstream, like, say, if you're having a heart attack and can't get to the ER because it's clogged with coronavirus patients. You weren't killed by the virus, but you were essentially a victim of it.



          WSJ reported last week that overall mortality rates in certain Italian regions are way above what they were last year, over and above the recorded coronavirus deaths. The recorded deaths you're seeing are just a floor.
          I write things on the Internet.

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          • BurghFan
            #BurghProud
            • Jul 2009
            • 10050

            #1460
            Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

            Originally posted by countryboy
            I'm ****ing over this virus.

            Tired of feeling like ****. Tired of stressing about finances (not in distress, but my investments and 401k taking a hit are really screwing up plans I had for immediate future), the well being of family and friends, missing my son, and being quarantined and not able to take care of myself. (get groceries, hygiene items, etc...)

            Yesterday was my parent's 48th wedding anniversary. While my mom passed 3 years ago, us kids, my Dad, and my uncle would go to Cracker Barrell (mom's favorite restaurant) to eat and celebrate. But due to virus can't do that. Couldn't even be together because of fear of spread. Today is my step-daughter's 18th birthday. A huge milestone for any kid, but with her its more special. She suffers from SMA and there was no guarantee that she would live to see this age, and with everything she has endured it was a bumpy road. But now, instead of a big celebration we had planned, nothing. Sunday is Easter and I can't be with my son, or even family, because of this virus.

            I'm ****ing over it.
            Heh, your parents had the same wedding date as mine except 6 years earlier. Yesterday would've been my parents 42nd anniversary except my dad passed away back in '93 (heart attack).

            Anyway, like Steelersfan said, I can totally understand why you would be upset, but being upset and stressed isn't going to do you any good at this point. Just try to be positive and relax and focus on getting better.

            Originally posted by NYJets
            Went to the grocery store, was hoping to get enough stuff to freeze that I would pretty much be good for the next few weeks, but this time it was more barren than the last couple times I went.

            Just about everyone had some form of a mask on. There were arrows taped on the floor trying to direct the flow of traffic, no one followed them, seemed like a bad idea anyway.

            Wasn't very crowded, so hard to see whether people are following the rest of the stuff
            Yeah, it's crazy how much stuff is still in low supply. Was at CVS on Sunday and when I passed the TP/paper towel aisle (didn't need either), it was completely empty On another note, despite the recommendation to wear mask whenever going out, I've seen very few people doing so when I've gone out. Don't know if it's because they just don't care or if they don't know where to get a mask or make a makeshift one.

            Originally posted by ImTellinTim
            I'd like to know what they're even using for projections. I don't trust any of the numbers coming out. There is limited testing, especially in lower population areas. The testing has a turnaround time. If they determine that you are having a mild case, don't test you, tell you to stay at home, and you suddenly take a turn for the worse and die at home...I don't even think that gets counted as a death.

            Getting accurate real time data in the current testing environment is impossible. So the projections are really just all over the place.
            Originally posted by DocHolliday
            “Models” are that particular person/organizations way of getting out there agenda. It always has been. What numbers are they even using exactly?

            Pure speculation that people take as gospel.




            Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports
            Probably a lot of advanced statistical modeling that takes into account all kinds of variables and trends. Much like predicting the path of a hurricane or the orbit of an asteroid, the model will continually evolve over time as data from more observations are added. Those earlier models with the higher projected deaths probably also had a much larger margin for error.
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            • dubcity
              Hall Of Fame
              • May 2012
              • 17876

              #1461
              Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

              Originally posted by BurghFan

              Those earlier models with the higher projected deaths probably also had a much larger margin for error.
              They did. More data equals more accurate projection.

              Comment

              • Caulfield
                Hall Of Fame
                • Apr 2011
                • 10986

                #1462
                Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                Originally posted by countryboy

                Yesterday was my parent's 48th wedding anniversary. While my mom passed 3 years ago, us kids, my Dad, and my uncle would go to Cracker Barrell (mom's favorite restaurant)
                I do love me some Cracker Barrel rainbow trout and dumplings. maybe I'll do a curbside pickup there tomorrow for lunch.
                OSFM23 - Building Better Baseball - OSFM23

                A Work in Progress

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                • mestevo
                  Gooney Goo Goo
                  • Apr 2010
                  • 19556

                  #1463
                  Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                  Originally posted by Chip Douglass
                  Most of these countries are just reporting hospital deaths, I think, so deaths at home/nursing facilities aren't being recorded.



                  This isn't even mentioning indirect deaths happening downstream, like, say, if you're having a heart attack and can't get to the ER because it's clogged with coronavirus patients. You weren't killed by the virus, but you were essentially a victim of it.







                  WSJ reported last week that overall mortality rates in certain Italian regions are way above what they were last year, over and above the recorded coronavirus deaths. The recorded deaths you're seeing are just a floor.
                  Yeah we are seeing some of that here. I forget the location, but on the news a bit ago they mentioned the city they were reporting from had several thousand deaths (aside from covid-19 cases) in March when last year there were only 2000.

                  Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

                  Comment

                  • roadman
                    *ll St*r
                    • Aug 2003
                    • 26339

                    #1464
                    Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                    Even Dr. Fauci has stated models don't tell you much of anything. He said he has studied them all and are dicey at best because there are a plethora of variables that are entered.

                    Comment

                    • KG
                      Welcome Back
                      • Sep 2005
                      • 17583

                      #1465
                      Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                      Originally posted by dubcity
                      They did. More data equals more accurate projection.

                      I wonder how they account for individual medical history. I’d imagine they cluster people together which would be extremely tough in countries with not so advanced and accessible medical records.


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                      Twitter Instagram - kgx2thez

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                      • p_rushing
                        Hall Of Fame
                        • Feb 2004
                        • 14514

                        #1466
                        Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                        Originally posted by roadman
                        Even Dr. Fauci has stated models don't tell you much of anything. He said he has studied them all and are dicey at best because there are a plethora of variables that are entered.
                        And yet they used them to shut the country down for the normal amount of deaths from the flu. Hopefully the country is back to running in May or it is going to completely ruin people's lives more than the virus has.

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                        • mestevo
                          Gooney Goo Goo
                          • Apr 2010
                          • 19556

                          #1467
                          Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                          Originally posted by p_rushing
                          And yet they used them to shut the country down for the normal amount of deaths from the flu. Hopefully the country is back to running in May or it is going to completely ruin people's lives more than the virus has.

                          Sent from my SM-T820 using Tapatalk
                          Wow, I thought this sentiment had largely moved on.

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                          • p_rushing
                            Hall Of Fame
                            • Feb 2004
                            • 14514

                            #1468
                            Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                            Originally posted by mestevo
                            Wow, I thought this sentiment had largely moved on.

                            Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
                            While life should be precious, it is not and the whole country shouldn't be shut down. The same people that have to worry about the flu each year, have to worry about this. They should be cautious as they are every flu season.

                            Fauci and team have been wrong in almost everything they have said. Now we are finding out that ventilators are not the right treatment and actually doing more harm, simple cheap drugs already available are working, and the models are 4-5x too high even a couple of weeks ago.

                            Even people following the guides got it, so if everyone got it and ventilators weren't needed, did we need to put more than $20 million people out of work?

                            Sent from my SM-T820 using Tapatalk

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                            • mestevo
                              Gooney Goo Goo
                              • Apr 2010
                              • 19556

                              #1469
                              Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                              Originally posted by p_rushing
                              While life should be precious, it is not and the whole country shouldn't be shut down. The same people that have to worry about the flu each year, have to worry about this. They should be cautious as they are every flu season.

                              Fauci and team have been wrong in almost everything they have said. Now we are finding out that ventilators are not the right treatment and actually doing more harm, simple cheap drugs already available are working, and the models are 4-5x too high even a couple of weeks ago.

                              Even people following the guides got it, so if everyone got it and ventilators weren't needed, did we need to put more than $20 million people out of work?

                              Sent from my SM-T820 using Tapatalk
                              I don't even know where to start. I don't know if you don't understand or just don't want to understand.

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                              • KSUowls
                                All Star
                                • Jul 2009
                                • 5894

                                #1470
                                Re: CDC Officials Warn of Coronavirus Outbreaks in the United States.

                                Originally posted by p_rushing
                                While life should be precious, it is not and the whole country shouldn't be shut down. The same people that have to worry about the flu each year, have to worry about this. They should be cautious as they are every flu season.

                                Fauci and team have been wrong in almost everything they have said. Now we are finding out that ventilators are not the right treatment and actually doing more harm, simple cheap drugs already available are working, and the models are 4-5x too high even a couple of weeks ago.

                                Even people following the guides got it, so if everyone got it and ventilators weren't needed, did we need to put more than $20 million people out of work?

                                Sent from my SM-T820 using Tapatalk
                                And imagine the state of our hospital system today if we things hadn't been shut down for a month. Also, aren't social distancing measures a being taken into account for these new models? While still lower than previous models, that fact alone still suggests that if we had not been staying at home then the latest model would project much worse than a really bad flu season.
                                Last edited by KSUowls; 04-09-2020, 10:15 PM.

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