MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Anyone want to help me figure out simple value on players two years in the future? I feel it necessary to make two deals.

1. ) Manny Machado - He resigned with Baltimore after they failed to find a trade partner in 2018. It's 2020, Baltimore continues to struggle greatly and just lost Schoop to the Dodgers in Free Agency. It feels only appropriate to move Machado, otherwise he's going to waste away his prime years on a bottom of the division team. Machado's stats are incredibly similar to his 2017 numbers. He batted .268 with 31 HR and 72 RBI's in 2018. He picked it up by batting .296 with 31HR and 96 RBIs in 2019. He is locked in a contract for six more years for 25-35M a total of 348.8M (if I'm doubling his in-game salary). Thoughts on this? I could leave him in Baltimore but I just can't see Machado being happy with the direction of the team and likely wanting out. New York has a need after losing Gregorious to Arizona. I'm also thinking of flipping him to Atlanta who has a really solid team right now. I'm more just trying to asses Machado's potential value here, I can come up with a prospect package myself.

2. ) Justin Turner - Just turned 35. Los Angeles has failed in two straight NLDS. Thus they went big time and signed both Schoop and Arenado out of free agency. His numbers match his 2015 numbers, outside of a slight drop in average. I'm thinking of moving him to a team like Chicago (WS) or Cleveland as a veteran presence for a young competing team. I'm thinking it might be best to move him around the 25M surplus range but I'm not too sure.

If you feel like helping, wonderful! If I don't get any responses, I completely get it. Working off of future stats/info is really difficult. I can always just put my best guess forward.

[Councilmann_Jamm]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Anyone want to help me figure out simple value on players two years in the future? I feel it necessary to make two deals.

1. ) Manny Machado - He resigned with Baltimore after they failed to find a trade partner in 2018. It's 2020, Baltimore continues to struggle greatly and just lost Schoop to the Dodgers in Free Agency. It feels only appropriate to move Machado, otherwise he's going to waste away his prime years on a bottom of the division team. Machado's stats are incredibly similar to his 2017 numbers. He batted .268 with 31 HR and 72 RBI's in 2018. He picked it up by batting .296 with 31HR and 96 RBIs in 2019. He is locked in a contract for six more years for 25-35M a total of 348.8M (if I'm doubling his in-game salary). Thoughts on this? I could leave him in Baltimore but I just can't see Machado being happy with the direction of the team and likely wanting out. New York has a need after losing Gregorious to Arizona. I'm also thinking of flipping him to Atlanta who has a really solid team right now. I'm more just trying to asses Machado's potential value here, I can come up with a prospect package myself.

If Manny is 28 in 2020 with an up and down 2 years and the Orioles are struggling. With a contract at 348 million. My best bet would to look at the Mike Stanton trade and try to copy that. My guess is in 2020 Yankees couldn't afford Manny with their other superstara needing contracts.

Maybe another big city that has youth and potential to surround him with.

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

If Manny is 28 in 2020 with an up and down 2 years and the Orioles are struggling. With a contract at 348 million. My best bet would to look at the Mike Stanton trade and try to copy that. My guess is in 2020 Yankees couldn't afford Manny with their other superstara needing contracts.

Maybe another big city that has youth and potential to surround him with.

Thanks for the follow-up! BTW, I was binge-watching a certain show on Netflix and died laughing when I realized where your username was from.

I'm thinking I will do these two trades:

ATL REC: Manny Machado
BAL REC: Kolby Allard | Austin Riley | 2019 Draftee A POT Low OVR

I wanted to strike balance between the Stanton trade and then the huge haul Machado could technically get. In this instance, Allard is getting beat out by Soroka for his place in the rotation, Riley loses his spot on the MLB roster to Machado and Baltimore sweetens the deal with a young high potential outfielder.

CLE REC: Justin Turner
LAD REC: Nellie Rodriguez | Juan Hillman

There aren't many teams vying for Turner but Cleveland can use him at first base.

[Kahler77]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Anyone want to help me figure out simple value on players two years in the future? I feel it necessary to make two deals.

1. ) Manny Machado - He resigned with Baltimore after they failed to find a trade partner in 2018. It's 2020, Baltimore continues to struggle greatly and just lost Schoop to the Dodgers in Free Agency. It feels only appropriate to move Machado, otherwise he's going to waste away his prime years on a bottom of the division team. Machado's stats are incredibly similar to his 2017 numbers. He batted .268 with 31 HR and 72 RBI's in 2018. He picked it up by batting .296 with 31HR and 96 RBIs in 2019. He is locked in a contract for six more years for 25-35M a total of 348.8M (if I'm doubling his in-game salary). Thoughts on this? I could leave him in Baltimore but I just can't see Machado being happy with the direction of the team and likely wanting out. New York has a need after losing Gregorious to Arizona. I'm also thinking of flipping him to Atlanta who has a really solid team right now. I'm more just trying to asses Machado's potential value here, I can come up with a prospect package myself.

2. ) Justin Turner - Just turned 35. Los Angeles has failed in two straight NLDS. Thus they went big time and signed both Schoop and Arenado out of free agency. His numbers match his 2015 numbers, outside of a slight drop in average. I'm thinking of moving him to a team like Chicago (WS) or Cleveland as a veteran presence for a young competing team. I'm thinking it might be best to move him around the 25M surplus range but I'm not too sure.

If you feel like helping, wonderful! If I don't get any responses, I completely get it. Working off of future stats/info is really difficult. I can always just put my best guess forward.

I dont know how realistic the WAR numbers in the show are but I have started using the the in game WAR for completed seasons that havent yet happened IRL combined with the baseball reference WAR for season that have happened IRL. If a guy has a real contract past the first year of my chise IRL I still use that if they have signed a new one in the game Ive been using in game salary. Again I dont know how realistic this is but it allows me to continue with the set out formula as far as surplus value goes.

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

I dont know how realistic the WAR numbers in the show are but I have started using the the in game WAR for completed seasons that havent yet happened IRL combined with the baseball reference WAR for season that have happened IRL. If a guy has a real contract past the first year of my chise IRL I still use that if they have signed a new one in the game Ive been using in game salary. Again I dont know how realistic this is but it allows me to continue with the set out formula as far as surplus value goes.

Yeah, I understand your point for sure. I get a bit mixed up about the in-game WAR simply because its been so off from IRL WAR. But its definitely an option.

[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Hey guys. How do you calculate a prospects surplus value if he isn’t in the top 100. The article is good for the top 100 prospects.

Example. I have calculated Granderson to have a 15.16 surplus value and want to trade him to the Cubs, but don’t know the value of any of their prospects (none in the top 100).


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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Hey guys. How do you calculate a prospects surplus value if he isn’t in the top 100. The article is good for the top 100 prospects.

Example. I have calculated Granderson to have a 15.16 surplus value and want to trade him to the Cubs, but don’t know the value of any of their prospects (none in the top 100).


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Use FV. And if they aren't top 100 odds are they have at most $12ish million in surplus. Also I can't see Granderson at that surplus. The 2015 season of 5 WAR really raised his expected using our value. Just use the Mets to Dodgers deal as a reference. And it was for a PTBNL or Cash.

So you can basically get a lotto ticket.

But help answer this. With Schwarber, Happ, Heyward, Almora, Zobrist and sometimes Bryant, what situation would cause the Cubs to play Granderson?

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[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Hey guys. How do you calculate a prospects surplus value if he isn’t in the top 100. The article is good for the top 100 prospects.

Example. I have calculated Granderson to have a 15.16 surplus value and want to trade him to the Cubs, but don’t know the value of any of their prospects (none in the top 100).


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

How did you get that surplus for Granderson? I'm getting somewhere around -2M in surplus for him.

[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Use FV. And if they aren't top 100 odds are they have at most $12ish million in surplus. Also I can't see Granderson at that surplus. The 2015 season of 5 WAR really raised his expected using our value. Just use the Mets to Dodgers deal as a reference. And it was for a PTBNL or Cash.

So you can basically get a lotto ticket.

But help answer this. With Schwarber, Happ, Heyward, Almora, Zobrist and sometimes Bryant, what situation would cause the Cubs to play Granderson?

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Thanks. How do I calculate FV?

Well I was just trying to work out the calculations because my post wasn’t answered so I decided to try myself. Used Granderson as an example and worked it out for practice.

This is confusing to me because his value is inflated, but how do I determine when one is inflated and when one is true?


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[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Thanks. How do I calculate FV?

Well I was just trying to work out the calculations because my post wasn’t answered so I decided to try myself. Used Granderson as an example and worked it out for practice.

This is confusing to me because his value is inflated, but how do I determine when one is inflated and when one is true?


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When the player is 37, like Granderson, his season 3 years ago isn't likely to be indicative of his current abilities. He's more likely to be like 2017 (1.5 bWAR)

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[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

When the player is 37, like Granderson, his season 3 years ago isn't likely to be indicative of his current abilities. He's more likely to be like 2017 (1.5 bWAR)

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Okay, makes sense. Now, how would I go about calculating FV?

[GamecocksLaw17]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Prospect lists like Baseball America, Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline include FV in their write up

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[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

Prospect lists like Baseball America, Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline include FV in their write up

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app

Okay perfect, thanks. So for example Chris Shaw on the Giants has a FV of 45. What would that mean in terms of surplus value?

[BlueJays09]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

How did you get that surplus for Granderson? I'm getting somewhere around -2M in surplus for him.

2017 1.5 (1.8 before trade and -0.3 after) x 6 = 9
2016 2.6 x 3 = 7.8
2015 5 x 1 = 5
Total = 21.8 / 10 = 2.18 average.

2.18 x 9 (value of WAR according to 1st post) x 1 year left = 19.62

19.62 - 5 M contract = 14.62

[MrSerendipity]

Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

2017 1.5 (1.8 before trade and -0.3 after) x 6 = 9
2016 2.6 x 3 = 7.8
2015 5 x 1 = 5
Total = 21.8 / 10 = 2.18 average.

2.18 x 9 (value of WAR according to 1st post) x 1 year left = 19.62

19.62 - 5 M contract = 14.62

I see, I mixed up his 2017 numbers. Regardless, we're dealing with a 37 YR OLD CF who is far off of his 2015 numbers as Gamecock was detailing. I do think you can get a lottery guy for him, doesn't necessarily have to be a low-end one.