MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

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  • Kahler77
    Rookie
    • May 2015
    • 145

    #1291
    Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

    Im the Jays wondering if Osuna to the Athletics for Nunez during first off-season is good?

    Gives Athletics a guy with a few years of control and high end talent for a guy they placed on waivers IRL

    Comment

    • HighCmpPct
      Denny 3K
      • Oct 2011
      • 3596

      #1292
      Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

      Originally posted by Kahler77
      Im the Jays wondering if Osuna to the Athletics for Nunez during first off-season is good?

      Gives Athletics a guy with a few years of control and high end talent for a guy they placed on waivers IRL
      So this would be after 2018 correct? If he's back and allowed to play at this point, he should be worth a good deal more than that.

      Obviously this incident would hurt his value, but not enough to basically trade him for nobody when he comes back.

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      • GamecocksLaw17
        MVP
        • Jun 2015
        • 1503

        #1293
        Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

        Originally posted by Councilmann_Jamm
        Necombe, Pache, and Toussaint is good.


        I doubt Atlanta would trade Riley. If they can't resign Donaldson, he becomes the future 3rd Baseman
        That seems awfully high for 3 months of Donaldson. I'm a braves fan so I might be skewed but depending on the prospect like that's a young MLB arm, a top 40 bat and a top 100 arm. So like $75+ in surplus

        Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app

        Comment

        • HighCmpPct
          Denny 3K
          • Oct 2011
          • 3596

          #1294
          Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

          Originally posted by Councilmann_Jamm
          Necombe, Pache, and Toussaint is good.


          I doubt Atlanta would trade Riley. If they can't resign Donaldson, he becomes the future 3rd Baseman
          Originally posted by Councilmann_Jamm
          Andrew McCutchen

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          Brian Dozier

          Dodgers - Yunsiel Diaz , Yadier Alvarez , Will Smith
          Thanks for these, I like them.

          Last 2 I promise lol.

          I need a trade to send Wilson Ramos somewhere. (Not COL they already acquired Realmuto)

          I also need a trade to send Schoop to CLE.

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          • Councilmann_Jamm
            Pro
            • Feb 2016
            • 745

            #1295
            Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

            Originally posted by GamecocksLaw17
            That seems awfully high for 3 months of Donaldson. I'm a braves fan so I might be skewed but depending on the prospect like that's a young MLB arm, a top 40 bat and a top 100 arm. So like $75+ in surplus

            Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app
            I didn't see anything on how many months we're left. I based it off a year of Donaldson with the QO that'll lead to a pick.

            The Braves have enough in the system to overpay for the Star. I usually have the team trading for the Star having to pay up over the value. Most time if you're trading for the Star your paying the premium.

            Braves get one of top 3B in the game. Lose Newcombe but bring up one the their abundance of arms. Also lose #9 and #11 prospect in their Top 30 that are couple years away.

            Only way Braves make this trade is if they are contending and in WIN NOW mode.
            Last edited by Councilmann_Jamm; 05-19-2018, 01:42 PM.

            Comment

            • MrSerendipity
              MVP
              • Jun 2013
              • 1397

              #1296
              Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

              Originally posted by Councilmann_Jamm
              I didn't see anything on how many months we're left. I based it off a year of Donaldson with the QO that'll lead to a pick.

              The Braves have enough in the system to overpay for the Star. I usually have the team trading for the Star having to pay up over the value. Most time if you're trading for the Star your paying the premium.

              Braves get one of top 3B in the game. Lose Newcombe but bring up one the their abundance of arms. Also lose #9 and #11 prospect in their Top 30 that are couple years away.

              Only way Braves make this trade is if they are contending and in WIN NOW mode.
              I really shouldn't even be getting back into this. But I'm going too.

              Josh Donaldson - For 2018, we got his surplus at 22M. He is 32 years old with an expiring contract.

              Elvis Andrus - We decided after extensive conversations that an opt-out minded Elvis would be worth 22M. He is 29 years old that can still opt in to a contract that would leave him with a team for an additional four years. For further clarification, Elvis Andrus does not have a player option in MLB The Show 18 and therefore can not opt out of his five year contract. Meaning whoever trades for him is guaranteed to be getting a player that has "opted in" for five years, pushing his value closer to 120M.

              For Josh Donaldson, you drew up a trade with what is considered the second best farm in baseball and gave Toronto a very promising young arm who is currently worth around 40M+ in surplus, as well as their #9 and #11 Prospects. The eight players before player #9 are all Top 100 Prospects. Player #9 and #11 would be much higher in most other farms.

              For Elvis Andrus, you drew up a trade with a farm that is ranked 25-30 and gave Texas their #3 and #6 prospect. Only the two players before player #3 are Top 100 Prospects.

              I surely respect your opinion and appreciate your efforts in the thread but can you possibly see why I felt your comparison was off? You stated in your comment about Elvis that if Texas was selling, that means "Texas would be rebuilding and that would drive down value." Yet when talking about Toronto trading a star-player in Donaldson, you stated "I usually have the team trading for the Star having to pay up over the value. Most time if you're trading for the Star your paying the premium."

              That is the entire reason why I responded in the fashion I did. I got called bias more than once for feeling this evaluation was off. I think you feel a certain way about Donaldson and a certain way about Andrus and that impacted the values of the trades that are being presented (which is fine). That is why we've been reflecting on surplus value so strongly because otherwise we're pushing forward trades that many others aren't going to agree with. We used surplus value to keep us all on the same page in assessing value and I think that (not simply by you by any means) mindset has been shifting drastically over the last 1-2 weeks.
              2019 OS Realistic Trades and Surplus Log


              ERAZONA (My Diamondbacks Story)

              Comment

              • MrSerendipity
                MVP
                • Jun 2013
                • 1397

                #1297
                Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                Originally posted by HighCmpPct
                So this would be after 2018 correct? If he's back and allowed to play at this point, he should be worth a good deal more than that.

                Obviously this incident would hurt his value, but not enough to basically trade him for nobody when he comes back.
                I'm pretty sure he's going off of the idea of trading him during this season which would drastically hurt Osuna's value. Your'e right in saying that Osuna's value increases post 2018 as he would either be done with his suspension or at the very end of it.
                2019 OS Realistic Trades and Surplus Log


                ERAZONA (My Diamondbacks Story)

                Comment

                • UNDERTAKER1215
                  Pro
                  • Oct 2011
                  • 692

                  #1298
                  Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                  What would it take for the Red Sox to acquire one of the following lefties? If you could give me an idea on each, that would be great.

                  Jake Diekman - TEX - FA after 2018
                  Jerry Blevins - NYM - FA after 2018
                  Kevin Siegrist - PIT - FA after 2019
                  Will Smith - SF - FA after 2018
                  Tony Watson - SF - FA after 2018

                  If I don't go with one of the Giants lefties, what would it also take to acquire Hunter Strickland? He's a free agent after 2020.

                  I'm only a few weeks into the season so stats are pointless, plus I probably won't be making a deal until at least June.

                  Chavis is the only real untouchable for me when it comes to the minors.
                  Last edited by UNDERTAKER1215; 05-20-2018, 05:47 PM.
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                  Comment

                  • Councilmann_Jamm
                    Pro
                    • Feb 2016
                    • 745

                    #1299
                    Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                    Originally posted by MrSerendipity
                    I really shouldn't even be getting back into this. But I'm going too.

                    Josh Donaldson - For 2018, we got his surplus at 22M. He is 32 years old with an expiring contract.

                    Elvis Andrus - We decided after extensive conversations that an opt-out minded Elvis would be worth 22M. He is 29 years old that can still opt in to a contract that would leave him with a team for an additional four years. For further clarification, Elvis Andrus does not have a player option in MLB The Show 18 and therefore can not opt out of his five year contract. Meaning whoever trades for him is guaranteed to be getting a player that has "opted in" for five years, pushing his value closer to 120M.

                    For Josh Donaldson, you drew up a trade with what is considered the second best farm in baseball and gave Toronto a very promising young arm who is currently worth around 40M+ in surplus, as well as their #9 and #11 Prospects. The eight players before player #9 are all Top 100 Prospects. Player #9 and #11 would be much higher in most other farms.

                    For Elvis Andrus, you drew up a trade with a farm that is ranked 25-30 and gave Texas their #3 and #6 prospect. Only the two players before player #3 are Top 100 Prospects.

                    I surely respect your opinion and appreciate your efforts in the thread but can you possibly see why I felt your comparison was off? You stated in your comment about Elvis that if Texas was selling, that means "Texas would be rebuilding and that would drive down value." Yet when talking about Toronto trading a star-player in Donaldson, you stated "I usually have the team trading for the Star having to pay up over the value. Most time if you're trading for the Star your paying the premium."

                    That is the entire reason why I responded in the fashion I did. I got called bias more than once for feeling this evaluation was off. I think you feel a certain way about Donaldson and a certain way about Andrus and that impacted the values of the trades that are being presented (which is fine). That is why we've been reflecting on surplus value so strongly because otherwise we're pushing forward trades that many others aren't going to agree with. We used surplus value to keep us all on the same page in assessing value and I think that (not simply by you by any means) mindset has been shifting drastically over the last 1-2 weeks.


                    I said it my first post on the Andurs subject that we all have different opinions on players which makes our evaluations for proposed trades different. Which is perfectly ok. Surplus Value helps but it's not the end all be all for every trade. I haven't mentioned one thing on Andrus towards you. I left it be after I posted my evaluation and left it.

                    We all don't have to agree on every trade. I don't agree that every trade needs to have a match on Surplus . We post our thoughts for the members who ask for trades and they can make their own decisions.

                    I personally think Donaldson is worth more than Andrus. And that's how I posted my evaluation. Andrus is a good player whose played above his ceiling. But I don't think he is a Star. I think teams will pay up more for 3 months of Donaldson than Andrus.

                    Cardinals trade for Donaldson I think Carpenter and Gyorko are better suited for the Jays future than prospects. Everything matches up perfectly. You had a different opinion and think Donaldson would go for Prospects. That's not always the case. You post your trade and I'd post mine and the people can make their decision.

                    Earlier in this thread about a Jose Abreu to Rockies deal. I had Rockies paying more for Abreu because White Sox need to be amazed to trade him. Not going to post a trade for Abreu that has valuation being equal. It has to make the White Sox think about it.

                    Again we have different opinions on players and value. We're not going to agree on everything which is ok. I think this thread overvalues prospects in a sense. I don't agree with everything you, Bard, Gamecockslaw post for evaluations. I respect what y'all do for community. And I like helping out as well.
                    Last edited by Councilmann_Jamm; 05-19-2018, 04:22 PM.

                    Comment

                    • GamecocksLaw17
                      MVP
                      • Jun 2015
                      • 1503

                      #1300
                      Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                      Originally posted by MrSerendipity
                      I really shouldn't even be getting back into this. But I'm going too.

                      Josh Donaldson - For 2018, we got his surplus at 22M. He is 32 years old with an expiring contract.

                      Elvis Andrus - We decided after extensive conversations that an opt-out minded Elvis would be worth 22M. He is 29 years old that can still opt in to a contract that would leave him with a team for an additional four years. For further clarification, Elvis Andrus does not have a player option in MLB The Show 18 and therefore can not opt out of his five year contract. Meaning whoever trades for him is guaranteed to be getting a player that has "opted in" for five years, pushing his value closer to 120M.

                      For Josh Donaldson, you drew up a trade with what is considered the second best farm in baseball and gave Toronto a very promising young arm who is currently worth around 40M+ in surplus, as well as their #9 and #11 Prospects. The eight players before player #9 are all Top 100 Prospects. Player #9 and #11 would be much higher in most other farms.

                      For Elvis Andrus, you drew up a trade with a farm that is ranked 25-30 and gave Texas their #3 and #6 prospect. Only the two players before player #3 are Top 100 Prospects.

                      I surely respect your opinion and appreciate your efforts in the thread but can you possibly see why I felt your comparison was off? You stated in your comment about Elvis that if Texas was selling, that means "Texas would be rebuilding and that would drive down value." Yet when talking about Toronto trading a star-player in Donaldson, you stated "I usually have the team trading for the Star having to pay up over the value. Most time if you're trading for the Star your paying the premium."

                      That is the entire reason why I responded in the fashion I did. I got called bias more than once for feeling this evaluation was off. I think you feel a certain way about Donaldson and a certain way about Andrus and that impacted the values of the trades that are being presented (which is fine). That is why we've been reflecting on surplus value so strongly because otherwise we're pushing forward trades that many others aren't going to agree with. We used surplus value to keep us all on the same page in assessing value and I think that (not simply by you by any means) mindset has been shifting drastically over the last 1-2 weeks.
                      Donaldson is a far superior player so 1 year of him is worth more than 1 year of Elvis. But in a world where the opt out isn't a thing you can use one of the 2 surplus numbers I gave yesterday. One where we act like he won't decline (highly unlikely) and on where he declines.

                      Andrus that doesn't opt out assuming he stays 4 WAR: $110.25

                      Andrus that ages along the curve: $65.25 surplus


                      Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app
                      Last edited by GamecocksLaw17; 05-19-2018, 04:17 PM.

                      Comment

                      • MrSerendipity
                        MVP
                        • Jun 2013
                        • 1397

                        #1301
                        MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                        Originally posted by Councilmann_Jamm
                        I said it my first post on the Andurs subject that we all have different opinions on players which makes our evaluations for proposed trades different. Which is perfectly ok. Surplus Value helps but it's not the end all be all for every trade. I haven't mentioned one thing on Andrus towards you. I left it be after I posted my evaluation and left it.

                        We all don't have to agree on every trade. I don't agree that every trade needs to have a match on Surplus . We post our thoughts for the members who ask for trades and they can make their own decisions.

                        I personally think Donaldson is worth more than Andrus. And that's how I posted my evaluation. Andrus is a good player whose played above his ceiling. But I don't think he is a Star. I think teams will pay up more for 3 months of Donaldson than Andrus.

                        Cardinals trade for Donaldson I think Carpenter and Gyorko are better suited for the Jays future than prospects. Everything matches up perfectly. You had a different opinion and think Donaldson would go for Prospects. That's not always the case. You post your trade and I'd post mine and the people can make their decision.

                        Earlier in this thread about a Jose Abreu to Rockies deal. I had Rockies paying more for Abreu because White Sox need to be amazed to trade him. Not going to post a trade for Abreu that has valuation being equal. It has to make the White Sox think about it.

                        Again we have different opinions on players and value. We're not going to agree on everything which is ok. I don't agree with everything you, Bard, Gamecockslaw post for evaluations. I respect what y'all do for community. And I like helping out as well.

                        Originally posted by GamecocksLaw17
                        Donaldson is a far superior player so 1 year of him is worth more than 1 year of Elvis. But in a world where the opt out isn't a thing you can use one of the 2 surplus numbers I gave yesterday. One where we act like he won't decline (highly unlikely) and on where he declines.

                        Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app

                        My primary point is being ignored here. Both of your thoughts are based on your own personal opinions of players. Which again, is totally fine.

                        Bard, Yankee and myself all got together and nailed down specific WAR values, Surplus formulas and aging trends over the course of a month and half. We then turned around and drafted an entire electronic report to document said values in terms of equal trades, player value and prospect value.

                        This all took an insane amount of time and dedication. That work helped a number of people identify value and gave them an established groundwork for trades that can work.

                        And now over the last two weeks, trades are being approved and denied purely based off of opinions of players. In a statistic and metric driven sport, disregarding a player’s worth, as has been done lately, completely negates the point of the thread. I can turn around and tell you that Washington would have to give Texas Robles, Soto, Fedde and more for Mazara but that doesn’t hold any weight outside of what I’m presenting if there is no foundation to the deal.

                        It is your shared opinion that a 3 year older 3B on an expiring contract is worth 50M in surplus more than 5 years of a SS with equal surplus value. And it’s fine that you hold that opinion. But I most certainly don’t and I’d venture to believe others wouldn’t agree with that sentiment either. Thus we need an agreeable foundation, such as the one that was being used for two months prior to the last two weeks. If we’re making decisions entirely on our own opinions and bias, we’re not helping anybody learn or understand the purpose/reason behind these deals.
                        2019 OS Realistic Trades and Surplus Log


                        ERAZONA (My Diamondbacks Story)

                        Comment

                        • GamecocksLaw17
                          MVP
                          • Jun 2015
                          • 1503

                          #1302
                          Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                          Originally posted by MrSerendipity
                          My primary point is being ignored here. Both of your thoughts are based on your own personal opinions of players. Which again, is totally fine.

                          Bard, Yankee and myself all got together and nailed down specific WAR values, Surplus formulas and aging trends over the course of a month and half. We then turned around and drafted an entire electronic report to document said values in terms of equal trades, player value and prospect value.

                          This all took an insane amount of time and dedication. That work helped a number of people identify value and gave them an established groundwork for trades that can work.

                          And now over the last two weeks, trades are being approved and denied purely based off of opinions of players. In a statistic and metric driven sport, disregarding a player’s worth, as has been done lately, completely negates the point of the thread. I can turn around and tell you that Washington would have to give Texas Robles, Soto, Fedde and more for Mazara but that doesn’t hold any weight outside of what I’m presenting if there is no foundation to the deal.

                          It is your shared opinion that a 3 year older 3B on an expiring contract is worth 50M in surplus more than 5 years of a SS with equal surplus value. And it’s fine that you hold that opinion. But I most certainly don’t and I’d venture to believe others wouldn’t agree with that sentiment either. Thus we need an agreeable foundation, such as the one that was being used for two months prior to the last two weeks. If we’re making decisions entirely on our own opinions and bias, we’re not helping anybody learn or understand the purpose/reason behind these deals.
                          Thats literally not what i said. I said 1 year of Donaldson is worth more than 1 year of Elvis. That thought is backed by your formula where Donaldson should be expected to be a 6 WAR player based on his 3 prior bWAR seasons. Elvis should be expected to be a 4 WAR player this year. So Donaldson is expected to be worth 2 additional wins in 2018. I listed numbers that show 5 years of Elvis is clearly worth more than 1 year of Donaldson.

                          I've used your 2017 WAR x 6 + 2016 WAR x 3 + 2015 WAR x 1 ÷ 10 to get a baseline like you laid out. I'm not sure what all you want from me

                          I can just bow out and observe from this point forward. Not trying to invalidate all of the hard work you did. I enjoyed it, yall have fun going forward

                          Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app
                          Last edited by GamecocksLaw17; 05-19-2018, 04:37 PM.

                          Comment

                          • MrSerendipity
                            MVP
                            • Jun 2013
                            • 1397

                            #1303
                            Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                            Originally posted by GamecocksLaw17
                            Thats literally not what i said. I said 1 year of Donaldson is worth more than 1 year of Elvis. That thought is backed by your formula where Donaldson should be expected to be a 6 WAR player based on his 3 prior bWAR seasons. Elvis should be expected to be a 4 WAR player this year. So Donaldson is expected to be worth 2 additional wins in 2018. I listed numbers that show 5 years of Elvis is clearly worth more than 1 year of Donaldson

                            Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app

                            Except I’ve mentioned multiple times that we’re freely permitting people to rip off the system by marking Elvis at a single year. He has no option in MLB The Show due to the nature of his option being mid-contract and The Show only permitting end of contract options. Quite literally, a user would have to release Elvis in order for Elvis not to be on their team for five seasons. That would have to be treated as if Elvis had agreed not to opt out of his contract upon being traded, as has been done in real life baseball many, many times.

                            Which is why I’ve stated and suggested that Elvis should be treated like a five year player.

                            With that said, that is precisely why we have a caveat section on our log. In this instance, if a player is acquiring Elvis at 22M in surplus, they should be cutting him in the off-season and only resigning him if they’re laying out a really large contract. But that wasn’t mentioned. I’ve stated multiple times that his opt-out doesn’t work in game but it’s been continuously suggested that his value is low.
                            2019 OS Realistic Trades and Surplus Log


                            ERAZONA (My Diamondbacks Story)

                            Comment

                            • GamecocksLaw17
                              MVP
                              • Jun 2015
                              • 1503

                              #1304
                              Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                              Originally posted by MrSerendipity
                              Except I’ve mentioned multiple times that we’re freely permitting people to rip off the system by marking Elvis at a single year. He has no option in MLB The Show due to the nature of his option being mid-contract and The Show only permitting end of contract options. Quite literally, a user would have to release Elvis in order for Elvis not to be on their team for five seasons. That would have to be treated as if Elvis had agreed not to opt out of his contract upon being traded, as has been done in real life baseball many, many times.

                              Which is why I’ve stated and suggested that Elvis should be treated like a five year player.

                              With that said, that is precisely why we have a caveat section on our log. In this instance, if a player is acquiring Elvis at 22M in surplus, they should be cutting him in the off-season and only resigning him if they’re laying out a really large contract. But that wasn’t mentioned. I’ve stated multiple times that his opt-out doesn’t work in game but it’s been continuously suggested that his value is low.
                              Posted this twice, not sure why you can't see it...


                              "Andrus that doesn't opt out assuming he stays 4 WAR: $110.25

                              Andrus that ages along the curve: $65.25 surplus"

                              Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Operation Sports mobile app

                              Comment

                              • HighCmpPct
                                Denny 3K
                                • Oct 2011
                                • 3596

                                #1305
                                Re: MLB 18 The Show Trade Discussion

                                Well with all said on Donaldson I think I'm going back to my original trade idea for him.

                                Donaldson and Martin for Austin Riley and Touki Toussaint

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