MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

I noticed sinker ballers like Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson have 4 seam fastballs that run from 94-95 mph. It's awfully tough to hit against these guys in the game. In Lowe's case he threw a 4 seamer .1% of the time at an average of 87 mph. Hudson threw his 12.9% of the time at an average of 90 mph. I'm sure these guys aren't the only ones, but they are the ones I actually played against.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...ion=P#velocity

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...ion=P#velocity

Derek Lowe should not be throwing 94-95 fastballs. Average speed for Lowe's 4-seamer is 87 in real life and sinker 88.

Are they thinking of Mark Lowe?

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/117955/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2010&to=3%2F13%2F2012

[BaylorBearBryant]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

This thread is awesome.

[gator3guy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Derek Lowe should not be throwing 94-95 fastballs. Average speed for Lowe's 4-seamer is 87 in real life and sinker 88.

Are they thinking of Mark Lowe?

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pit...=3%2F13%2F2012

Must be lol. Try hitting against him. It's tough.

[ksig24]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Not sure if it has been mentioned or not, but most pitchers in this game have changeups 5-7 mph off their fastballs. Changeups are often 8-10 mph slower than their average fastballs and sometime 12 mph off.

Just saying.

[bmke92]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Brian Wilson of the Giants is primarily a 2-pitch guy, 4-seam fastball and slider. According to FanGraphs, he only threw fastball and slider last year http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...485&position=P

There are some pitchers in baseball who throw just 2 pitches, but in the game all pitchers must have 3 even if they only throw 2 types.

That's not true, Wilson's best pitch last year was his 2 seamer.He threw it all last year.

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/blogs/the-cove/Brian-Wilson-Two-Seam-Fastball-New-Pitch-GIF-120059639.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ns-two-seamer/

I'm not very good at gifs but there's a a gif in their that shows it. Its about 93mph with quick late movement. It's filthy...

he also has a cutter against lefties and slider vs. righties
(from the fangraphs link)
"I think — based on media reports and what Wilson says — that the slider and cutter are two distinct pitches, but I am not 100% confident in disentangling them with the Pitch F/X data."

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Not sure if it has been mentioned or not, but most pitchers in this game have changeups 5-7 mph off their fastballs. Changeups are often 8-10 mph slower than their average fastballs and sometime 12 mph off.

Just saying.

I don't think the pitchfx numbers are wrong in terms of separation. An average 12 mph is massive separation off a fastball.

mph separation between fastball and change last year from a bunch of the ERA leaders:
Beckett 4.5
Buehrle 6
Buchholz 11.7
Cain 5.6
Carpenter 6.8
Garza 8.3
Halladay 8.1
Hudson 8.4
Lackey 7
Lee 7
Lester 7.9
Lincecum 8.6
Lohse 9.3
Sabathia 7.3
Santana 9.7
Shields 6.9
Verlander 8.2
Weaver 10
Wolf 9.8

Notice the guys known for having great changes are mostly shy of double digit separation on average? Remember, they're averages, they could hit as high as 93 and as low as 81 but average 91 and 84 quite easily.

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

That's not true, Wilson's best pitch last year was his 2 seamer.He threw it all last year.

http://www.nbcbayarea.com/blogs/the-cove/Brian-Wilson-Two-Seam-Fastball-New-Pitch-GIF-120059639.html

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ns-two-seamer/

I'm not very good at gifs but there's a a gif in their that shows it. Its about 93mph with quick late movement. It's filthy...

he also has a cutter against lefties and slider vs. righties
(from the fangraphs link)
"I think — based on media reports and what Wilson says — that the slider and cutter are two distinct pitches, but I am not 100% confident in disentangling them with the Pitch F/X data."

The link to fangraphs I posted, and is what I am going by, says no 2-seam fastball as I stated. The chart says zero percent. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...485&position=P

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Here is another link, different site, shows Wilson threw 1 two-seam fastball in 2 years. He threw 13 cutters in 2 years according to this site below.

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/451216/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2010&to=3%2F14%2F2012

[seanjeezy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Not sure if it has been mentioned or not, but most pitchers in this game have changeups 5-7 mph off their fastballs. Changeups are often 8-10 mph slower than their average fastballs and sometime 12 mph off.

Just saying.

I found it to be the exact opposite actually... Here are some examples:

Zach Britton - in game:79mph IRL: 87mph
Jake Arrieta - in game:78mph IRL:87mph
Michael Pineda - in game:80mph IRL:86mph
Vance Worley - in game:78mph IRL:85mph
James McDonald - in game:76mph IRL:81mph
Jhoulys Chacin - in game:78mph IRL:84mph
Cory Luebke - in game:79mph IRL:85mph

etc.

When guys like pineda are throwing 95+ and then bust out a 80mph changeup with the exact same arm speed and trajectory as their fastball

If pineda could do this in real life he would have 400+ strikeouts in a season lol

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

The link to fangraphs I posted, and is what I am going by, says no 2-seam fastball as I stated. The chart says zero percent. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...485&position=P

It also says in 2011 the horizontal movement on his fastball jumped up while the vertical movement dropped:

- In 2009 and 2010 his horizontal movement was -3.6 and -3.4 respectively. In 2011 it was -6.9.
- In 2009 and 2010 his vertical movement was 9.1 and 8.3 respectively. In 2011 it was 6.9.

Admitted I have not seen much of Brian Wilson pitching but the numbers suggest that something changed. Either he's throwing his four-seamer differently and maybe from a different arm slot or pitchfx is just failing to differentiate between two different fastballs that he's throwing.

I think it's the latter given the charts in this post: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...ns-two-seamer/

Just looking at the scatter plot it's clear that he's throwing a four-seamer AND a two-seamer (I might even throw it in running fastball territory given that it's more horizontal than vertical so far as these things go) but pitchfx is merging the two pitches together.

This is exactly why this game needs a "pitch czar" and why blinding looking at pitchfx data can be misleading. The system accurately records movement and velocity but it does not necessarily have a perfect algorithm for distinguishing similar pitches with related movements. People in this thread are missing that, assuming that the pitchfx classifications are accurate, and the devs have failed to acknowledge that blindly going by the numbers can produce woefully inaccurate pitch repertoires.

There's a lot of arguing that can go on over what pitches each pitcher should have and the precise ratings they should receive but I'll say this: Brian Wilson threw two different fastball last year and pitchfx reported it incorrectly.

[BJays1984]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

I found it to be the exact opposite actually... Here are some examples:

Zach Britton - in game:79mph IRL: 87mph
Jake Arrieta - in game:78mph IRL:87mph
Michael Pineda - in game:80mph IRL:86mph
Vance Worley - in game:78mph IRL:85mph
James McDonald - in game:76mph IRL:81mph
Jhoulys Chacin - in game:78mph IRL:84mph
Cory Luebke - in game:79mph IRL:85mph

etc.

When guys like pineda are throwing 95+ and then bust out a 80mph changeup with the exact same arm speed and trajectory as their fastball

If pineda could do this in real life he would have 400+ strikeouts in a season lol

I agree 100%. The change ups in The Show have always been a few mph too slow. It makes hitting the flame throwers extremely difficult. Is there anyone who will be going through the OSFM roster sets and correcting the pitch repertoires of the MLB players?

[statdude]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

I don't exactlty know how to read pitchfx, but I'm pretty sure Jordan Walden should be throwing a fastball that moves inward into right handers. His movement is at like -7.0. And his fastball should be upped to where he can hit 100-101. His average fastball last year was at 97.5. Maybe someone can help me out with this guy?

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...271&position=P

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

I don't exactlty know how to read pitchfx, but I'm pretty sure Jordan Walden should be throwing a fastball that moves inward into right handers. His movement is at like -7.0. And his fastball should be upped to where he can hit 100-101. His average fastball last year was at 97.5. Maybe someone can help me out with this guy?

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...271&position=P

I think -7.0 is near the cutoff used in-game between 4-seamer and running fastball but doesn't the running fastball not get up that high in velocity in The Show anyway?

[gator3guy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Just pitched with Anthony Swarzak of the Twins and he has a 94-97 two seam and an 89-91 four seam in the game. Two seam velocity needs to be turned down. Averaged 92 last year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...xpitchvelocity

[mgsmith119]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

This stuff is great. Where can we find this updated roster, with all of the pitch repertoire changes done?