MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

[nickakadashow]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

What's Russell doing with these posts? Are they editing it as part of a roster update? Does anyone know? Thanks

[Rod_Carew29]

Re: Derek Lowe

Interesting...this back and forth about trying to identify a pitchers' pitches can really drive one crazy. Case in point, the Indians' Derek Lowe. For YEARS, this guy claimed he DIDN'T throw a curveball AT ALL, only a slider. Well...if you'd watch Mr. Lowe long enough and you knew how to recognize a pitch break/speed (vs. a similar type pitch in one's arsenal), you KNOW he DID throw a curveball.....

You are definitely correct about the "sinker".

Felix Hernandez is one of the most difficult starting pitchers in the majors to assign correct pitch types to on The Show.

He calls this "sinker" his 2 seam fastball. He actually does get a 2 seam movement (according to The Show's movement of the 2 seam fastball) on it fairly often.

The following graph clearly depicts both of these movements. The 2 seam fastball shows up as a "FF" (four seam fastball).



The following graph also shows that his "sinker" often moves as a 2 seam fastball moves on The Show. This is depicted as the "SI" pitches in white on the left hand side of the sinkers that are displayed. It clearly shows many of his 2 seam fastballs moving as 2 seam fastball and sinkers.



With that being said, he does throw another fastball that almost always moves like a cutter. This is not his slider. The cut fastball is depicted in the following graph as the "FC" in yellow. Some of these cutters are also labeled in red as FA's and/or FF's



Cutters and sliders are often times labeled incorrectly on pitch f/x sites. Some sliders and labeled as cutters and some cutters are labeled as sliders.

The fact is that Felix Hernandez rarely throws anything that is straight. I would strongly suggest removing his 4 seam fastball.

As for his changeup, it was the second most valuable change-up in the majors in 2011 (link) behind Cole Hamels' change-up. His changeup has been the second most valuable changeup in the majors over the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined.

I would assign him the following pitches in the order that they are listed:

sinker
circle-change
curveball
slider
2 seamer, cutter or splitter (all three pitches/choices are realistically accurate pitches)

For the record, I just edited his suggested repertoire because I typed it out incorrectly.

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Josh Beckett's 2-seam fastball is 3 mph slower than 4 seamer in the game, but should be just 1 mph difference. Beckett's 4-seam fastball speed has not averaged 94 as shown in the game, 93 is what both links show.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...510&position=P

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/277417/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2009&to=3%2F16%2F2012

Matt Albers 2-seam fastball in the game is 3 mph slower than his 4-seam fastball. The links below show a difference of 1 mph.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...300&position=P

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/458006/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2009&to=3%2F16%2F2012

Clay Buchholz Slider in the game is 84 mph s/b 89 His change-up is 78 mph in game s/b 81

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/453329/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2009&to=3%2F16%2F2012

Aaron Cook's sinker in game is 5 mph slower than his 4-seamer. Sinker averaged 88.9 and 4-seamer 90.1

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/346871/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2009&to=3%2F16%2F2012

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Vicente Padilla's sinker s/b same speed as 4-seam fastball, 92. His slider in game is 81 but s/b 84.

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/218894/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2009&to=3%2F16%2F2012

[awwho1]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Have pitches for jonathan niese but not letting me post the reply stupid

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Clayton Kershaw has a change-up in the game, but wikipedia and Clayton Kershaw, as seen and heard in video linked below, has a circle change-up:

http://msn.foxsports.com/topics/m/video/25627288/get-a-grip-clayton-kershaw.htm

The movement, spin rate, etc. can be seen here http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pit...=3%2F16%2F2012

[ksig24]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Bobby Parnell

fastball in game max velocity 94 mph.

Fangraphs evidence that his average fb was 97.2 mph.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...926&position=P

[Niekro4President]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

My understanding is The Show simply uses a three year weighted average of the raw velocity, horizontal, and vertical numbers. They do not consider the scatter-plots and they do not consider whether pitchers are actually throwing different pitches than what they have thrown in the past. The is no human element which is why every year Russell comes here and asks us to give him a rundown of pitch edits. The devs simply do not check these things.

You get particularly problematic results when pitchfx merges two different pitches and may not have in the past. Not only does a pitcher not get a pitch that they may throw a fair percentage of the time but the numbers for the pitch that previously existed can be skewed. With some pitchers fangraphs goes in and makes an adjustment to distinguish between the two pitches and applies it retroactively. At some point I bet this happens with Brian Wilson.



Yes, in a previous post I noted the the misunderstand of pitchfx data that we're seeing in this thread and it doesn't just apply to you. The raw data on the internet is good but it's not necessarily complete. Just because an internet site published it doesn't mean it's necessarily correct either! With some pitchers you can just look at the velocity, horizontal, and vertical numbers and be good to go. With some others you need to check the scatter-plots and make sure that pitchfx isn't failing to distinguish between some distinctly different pitches. Said another way: the raw data is all there but a lot of work is necessary to parse through it and determine what it's actually telling us given what we want to know. Just going by another site's take can be a mistake.

I don't post much, and I watch literally every single pitch of Giants baseball and I can say for certain that Wilson had a 2 seamer last year that he did not have in 2010. I noticed it early in the season when he locked up some righties by having the tailing action catch the outside corner, when normally it would have been a ball a foot outside. I know my opinion doesn't mean much because I don't have fancy links and whatnot, but visual, anecdotal evidence can sometimes be better than charts

I also don't know who's side of the argument I'm quoting here, I just know it's the last relevant post on the B-Weezy saga.

[TheLegend5]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Is their a model for the break and control numbers for the types of pitches? Thanks guys.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Clay Buchholz Slider in the game is 84 mph s/b 89 His change-up is 78 mph in game s/b 81

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pitcher/453329/?batters=A&count=AA&pitches=AA&from=3%2F1%2F2009&to=3%2F16%2F2012

Clay Buchholz no longer throws a slider. He ditched the slider for a cutter two years ago. There is an entire post earlier in this thread detailing his transformation as a pitcher to a fastball/cutter/change guy who throws a curve only as a show-me pitch. Even the 4.1% "sliders" he threw last season appear to simply be mis-categorized cutters, the result being a cutter 17.2% of all pitches and sliders 0%.

I hope you don't think I'm picking on you for no reason. I'm singling your posts out now because you really need to stop relying on that texasleaguers website... they appear to have many mis-categorized pitches and you're spreading a lot of misinformation in this thread as a result of your reliance on that site. I don't know what you're trying to do at this point but "accurate pitch repertoires" certainly isn't what your actions and posts are going to result in.

Given that Clay has already been discussed either you're not reading the thread and just posting or you're still not understanding what I and at least one other poster have been trying to explain to you about pitchfx. To be clear though so there is no change of misunderstanding: texasleaguers appears to have a lot of bad info and you can't just cite what they say a pitcher is throwing.

[seanjeezy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Is their a model for the break and control numbers for the types of pitches? Thanks guys.

For individual pitch command, check out the heat maps on fangraphs. Here's Roy Halladay's to use as an example. If there are concentrated splotches of yellow, that means the pitcher is consistently hitting a certain spot. I think in-game Halladay has command in the 90's for certain pitches, so base your ratings for other pitchers off of Halladay's in-game rating and thier heat maps. Another good example is Jared Weaver's curveball:



This deserves a 99 command rating IMO

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Joe Paterson - D-backs FB in game 93 s/b 85, 2-seamer in game 90 s/b 85, slider in game 87 s/b 73

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/pit...=3%2F16%2F2012

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...565&position=P

[TheLegend5]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

For individual pitch command, check out the heat maps on fangraphs. Here's Roy Halladay's to use as an example. If there are concentrated splotches of yellow, that means the pitcher is consistently hitting a certain spot. I think in-game Halladay has command in the 90's for certain pitches, so base your ratings for other pitchers off of Halladay's in-game rating and thier heat maps. Another good example is Jared Weaver's curveball:



This deserves a 99 command rating IMO

Thanks for the help. What about for the break rating on certain pitches? Is their specific ratings based on the f/x for pitches?

[seanjeezy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Thanks for the help. What about for the break rating on certain pitches? Is their specific ratings based on the f/x for pitches?

It depends on where you're getting ratings from. The easiest way is to find who has a 99 break rating in-game and then look up their pitch f/x numbers and use that as the maximum rating

Somewhere in this forum I posted a spreadsheet I made based on the pitch values from Brooks Baseball, it already has the maximum values for each pitch, don't use the command rating at the bottom, it was just something I threw together, doesn't work very well for pitchers who heavily use a chase pitch (aka Felix Hernandez)

Edit:

Here's the spreadsheet. Quick primer:
1. These only apply to Brooks Baseball
2. Total is sqrt(horiz^2+vert^2) aka the Pythagorean theorem, use this for pitches with substantial horizontal and vertical movement
3. Sinkers I classify as having a ratio that is greater than or equal to 2:1 in respect to vertical vs horizontal movement
4. A 4-seam is a running fastball if it has 6 inches or more of horizontal movement
5. A curve is a sweeping curve if it has 10 or more inches of horizontal movement
6. A curve is a 12-6 curve if it has less than a ball's length of horizontal movement (3 inches)
7. 4SB movement is the whiff%(under sabermetric outcomes) divided by 38.66%, which was the highest 4SB whiff rate last year (vinnie pestano)
8. A changeup is a circle changup if it 6 inches or more of horizontal movement

Hope this helps!

[AUTiger1]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Mike Minor
-Needs a curveball added

http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=5309