MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

From wikipedia:

Clayton Kershaw won the Triple Crown by having a .117 average against his slider.[7]

Reference http://www.baseballanalytics.org/bas...ng-slider.html

Most strikepouts with slider Left-handed pitchers in 2011:

Kershaw - 111

Sabathia - 101

Liriano - 61

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/24801/kershaw-sliding-into-cy-young-contention

Sabathia gets a 90 or 91 for slider movement in the game, and Kershaw gets 67 or 68. Is there really that much difference? I don't see it looking at reported figures (slider movement):

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...036&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...404&position=P

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Bobby Parnell

fastball in game max velocity 94 mph.

Fangraphs evidence that his average fb was 97.2 mph.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...926&position=P

That is 97 for one year, and they don't assign speeds based on one year when there are three years available. I believe they use a 3-year average.

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

The fact is that Felix Hernandez rarely throws anything that is straight. I would strongly suggest removing his 4 seam fastball.
As for his changeup, it was the second most valuable change-up in the majors in 2011 (link) behind Cole Hamels' change-up. His changeup has been the second most valuable changeup in the majors over the 2010 and 2011 seasons combined.

For the record, I just edited his suggested repertoire because I typed it out incorrectly.

And for 2011 Clayton Kershaw had the most effective slider, though it will not happen in this game because the game doesn't know it. I think his slider is supposed to be his worst pitch

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ers=0&sort=3,d

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Clay Buchholz no longer throws a slider. He ditched the slider for a cutter two years ago. There is an entire post earlier in this thread detailing his transformation as a pitcher to a fastball/cutter/change guy who throws a curve only as a show-me pitch. Even the 4.1% "sliders" he threw last season appear to simply be mis-categorized cutters, the result being a cutter 17.2% of all pitches and sliders 0%.

I hope you don't think I'm picking on you for no reason. I'm singling your posts out now because you really need to stop relying on that texasleaguers website... they appear to have many mis-categorized pitches and you're spreading a lot of misinformation in this thread as a result of your reliance on that site. I don't know what you're trying to do at this point but "accurate pitch repertoires" certainly isn't what your actions and posts are going to result in.

Given that Clay has already been discussed either you're not reading the thread and just posting or you're still not understanding what I and at least one other poster have been trying to explain to you about pitchfx. To be clear though so there is no change of misunderstanding: texasleaguers appears to have a lot of bad info and you can't just cite what they say a pitcher is throwing.

Hmm...and fangraphs is also giving bad information? http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...543&position=P

Buchholz is shown to have thrown a slider last year and years previous.

Now, if you want to say fangraphs is also reporting inaccurate information, we can probably delete more than half of what is reported here. In addition, you should reply to every single person who is reporting inaccurate information from texas leaguers or fangraphs, unless you are particularly interested in posts bearing my name, in which case I accept the flattery.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Hmm...and fangraphs is also giving bad information? http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...543&position=P

Buchholz is shown to have thrown a slider last year and years previous.

Now, if you want to say fangraphs is also reporting inaccurate information, we can probably delete more than half of what is reported here. In addition, you should reply to every single person who is reporting inaccurate information from texas leaguers or fangraphs, unless you are particularly interested in posts bearing my name, in which case I accept the flattery.

You are apparently lacking the ability to distinguish between data and analysis. Pitch speed and movement are data. How they are categorized is analysis. More specifically: 93 mph, 10" vertical movement, and 1" horizontal movement is data. Labeling that pitch a 4-seamer is analysis.

Here's where it gets tricky: labeling that pitch a slider would be incorrect analysis. There are certain speeds and breaks that in conjunction are typical of certain types of pitches. If you're familiar with pitchfx numbers you can spot these things fairly quickly. I'm not just family with pitchfx though, I'm familiar with Clay Buchholz and he throws a cutter now and not a slider. It's right there in the data you'll notice his velocity and break changed substantially a couple years ago.

--------------------

To address your specific allegation based on your interpretation of what I have been saying:

"Hmm...and fangraphs is also giving bad information?"

You are oversimplifying by calling everything fangraphs provides "information" in effort to make a sarcastic point. In oversimplifying you only reveal again your inability to comprehend. As I stated in the first half of this post fangraphs does two things: 1.) provide raw pitch speed and break data, and 2.) analyses that data and in doing so labels distinctly different pitches for pitchers. Once again, data and analysis. Both are information but they are different things. Pitchfx's data, the pitch speed and break, is accurate. The analysis, can be inaccurate.

Why can it be inaccurate? As I've already stated in this thread (in a post you already either ignored or failed to comprehend) fangraphs merely uses an algorithm to distinguish between pitch types. In the right circumstances it is very easy for the fangraphs algorithm to miss that a pitcher is throwing a 4-seamer and a 2-seamer/sinker or a cutter and a slider. Sometimes fangraphs has a human go in and make a tweak so the pitches show correctly and sometimes they don't. That doesn't mean you can't figure it out on your own based on the scatter-plots. They don't give averaged numbers, instead they show pitch groupings and given that certain types of pitches tend to group and have certain types of breaks it's easy enough to figure from there.

My patience is shot with you because you are spewing misinformation in this thread due to your inability to understand a basic distinction between data and analysis. My question for you at this point is are you being intentionally obtuse? Are you just trying to cover up how wrong you are by making many posts? Every bit of data you've posted should be called into question at this point. My basis for saying that is given your readily apparent lack of understanding of pitchfx, scatter-plots, and fangraphs. You clearly don't get it despite several posters trying to explain why you're wrong. This isn't a philosophical argument in which various sides can have arguments of merit. You literally do not get it.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Don't take my word for it though:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/3/31/2068855/pitch-fx-primer

What Mistakes to Avoid when using the data:

Mike Fast has covered the basics of what mistakes not to make when doing a pitchf/x analysis last year in a great article for The Hardball Times. It's a great article, and I'd advise you to read it HERE if you're interested in doing the work. I'll be reiterating some of his points, while adding some others.

FIRST: Do NOT Trust the Pitch-Type Classifications!

So, when you get the data, you'll notice that each data point, representing a specific pitch, is marked as being of one of many pitch types. Who decides whether pitches are fastballs, change-ups, sliders, curve-balls, or any other pitch type?

The answer is a computer algorithm designed by MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM), which classifies each pitch shortly after it is thrown (On occasion, the pitches are later re-classified after games are over). The algorithm attempts to use the movement of each pitch, along with the speed of that pitch, to determine what pitch type that pitch really was. To help it with this work, the algorithm is told what are the pitches one would expect to see from a pitcher, so that it can choose the correct pitch type when pitches are really borderline. As the season goes on, a pitcher's pitch type information often becomes more accurate, as the algorithm is told that a pitcher uses a specific pitch type he may or may not have done before, and adjusts its classifications in the future accordingly.

The problem is that these Pitch Type Classifications are often not great and can sometimes be DOWNRIGHT INACCURATE. The algorithm has gotten better every year, but it still has many flaws. For example, the algorithm has massive issues determining whether a fastball is a four-seam fastball or a two-seamer, and the algorithm for better or for worse has classified more two-seam fastballs over the last year than ever before (I suspect it's getting more accurate, but it's still very eh).

Moreover, since the algorithm is updated during the year to correct for new pitches, the system will often call a pitch one pitch type for part of the year and another for the rest of the year, which is a problem when dealing with fangraphs, texasleaguers, or Joe Lefkowitz' numbers. For an example: Mike Pelfrey's splitter was classified in the first few months as a change-up until the system was told it was a splitter. From that point on, the "CH" designation was replaced near entirely with the splitter designation "FS" for those pitches.

So what can you do about this problem? First, look at the graphs that you get along with Texasleaguers or Joe Lefkowitz' or even fangraphs' data. You can see that the pitches tend to fall into clusters. If the algortihm is misclassifying pitches, you'll often notice that clusters are of multiple colors (representing multiple pitch types). This can help you recognize which "pitch types" are really the same. Secondly, view with skepticism any pitch types found infrequently by the algorithm. These are probably just errors in the system.

If you're playing with the data itself, having downloaded it via one of the methods itself, you can fully resolve this situation by manually classifying the data (or using K-Means Clustering). You do this by organizing the data into clusters based upon the pfx_x, pfx_z, and start_speed data values.

In all reality, the algorithm does a REALLY REALLY good job at what it's supposed to do: the pitchers of individual pitchers tend to be somewhat unique to that pitcher and thus making a system that classifies these pitches in real time is really really REALLY hard. And the system isn't terrible: for example, in general the system does a fairly good job at identifying curveballs. It also is fairly good at identifying other non-fastball pitches. The algorithm IS NOT very good at distinguishing different fastballs, but overall it can be solid. Just don't treat the numbers as absolute.

Also, as Mike Fast wrote in his article, the numbers tend to change year to year as the algorithm changes...so don't try comparing the numbers based upon classifications from year to year or even month to month at times: look at the graphs in these sources to ensure that things have indeed really changed.

SECOND: Certain Pitch Types are in fact basically the same thing:

This is really a smaller sub-point of our first point: the MLBAM algorithm contains several pitch classifications that really represent the same thing. For example, the algorithm will classify some pitches as "FT," for 2-seam fastball, and "SI," for sinker. A sinker IS a two-seam fastball. What goes on is that the algorithm is told who is a sinkerballer, and will use SI instead of FT for those pitchers. Of course a problem is that sometimes the algorithm will switch from FT to SI mid-season, making it seem like the pitcher has switched pitches. That is NOT the case: please don't be fooled.

Similarly, the classification KC, for Knuckle-Curve, doesn't mean anything different from "CU." If a pitcher has both according to pitchf/x...remember that they are the same pitch.

Finally, while Cutters (FC) and Sliders (SL) are NOT the same pitch, the system has difficulty figuring out when a pitch is one rather than the other, since they are rather similar. Check the graphs: often the system will switch from one to the other as it's told what the pitch actually is by some human operator. Don't assume a pitcher throws both (though some pitchers, like Cliff Lee, DO throw both pitches).

This is really basic stuff. It would be appreciated if you go through all of your posts and verify that the pitch classification data you reported is accurate since I know you haven't done the necessary analysis to confirm it.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Here are more.

Understanding scatter-plots (tremendously important):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitch-identification-tutorial/

Discussion of pitch classification and improvements over time (it's still not perfect):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/content/article/yes-we-actually-classified-every-pitch/

An interesting article in which Tim Hudson's repertoire is discussed. Important because it discusses changes in how the system has been used over the past few years and how to analyze the data:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-close-look-at-tim-hudson/

It's a bit of reading but I don't suggest skimping. Much more is out there too... pitchfx is not some mysterious thing.

[seanjeezy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

I'm pretty sure fangraphs and texas leaguers just pull data straight from gameday, that is why their data is identical. They don't do anything with the data, just publish it, so whatever gameday classifies a pitch as, so does fangraphs and texas leaguers. As far as I know, Brooks Baseball is the only site to manually assign pitch classifications, the only work you have to do is distinguish what is a sinker and what is a two-seam, since they only use sinkers, other than that, every classification is spot on.

I am personally against using 3 years of data to determine pitch types - case in point Clay Buchholz. If the guy didn't throw it last year, don't include it.

Next up SCEA, make the minimum number of pitches two so I don't have to keep giving Mariano Rivera an extra fastball

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

They are not going to use last year as the basis for pitch repertoire or pitch speed, or pitch control. They are not going to use last year as the basis for all hitting attributes.

They may give Buchholz a cutter and take away his slider--and he has thrown a slider--if they feel that is a more effective pitch. However, unless they use last year as the basis for all assigned attributes, I don't think it's fair.

By the way, when I said Rivera only has two pitches long ago in this thread, no one gave me a "like the post" thumb. Eh, it's all about favorites...

Also, for those who want to base everything off last year, start posting! There are lots of pitchers in the majors...and that goes for hitters as well.

[Jason_19]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

They are not going to use last year as the basis for pitch repertoire or pitch speed, or pitch control. They are not going to use last year as the basis for all hitting attributes.

They may give Buchholz a cutter and take away his slider--and he has thrown a slider--if they feel that is a more effective pitch. However, unless they use last year as the basis for all assigned attributes, I don't think it's fair.

By the way, when I said Rivera only has two pitches long ago in this thread, no one gave me a "like the post" thumb. Eh, it's all about favorites...

Also, for those who want to base everything off last year, start posting! There are lots of pitchers in the majors...and that goes for hitters as well.

Hmm...and fangraphs is also giving bad information? http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...543&position=P

Buchholz is shown to have thrown a slider last year and years previous.

Now, if you want to say fangraphs is also reporting inaccurate information, we can probably delete more than half of what is reported here. In addition, you should reply to every single person who is reporting inaccurate information from texas leaguers or fangraphs, unless you are particularly interested in posts bearing my name, in which case I accept the flattery.

Seriously, man, you need to quit posting this absurd nonsense in this thread. You're going to ruin this for everyone.

If you're not going to attempt to learn how to read the graphs and interpret what they show then you need to refrain from posting.

Also, you can't use 3 year weighted averages for pitches. That is completely illogical and nonsensical.

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

Seriously, man, you need to quit posting this absurd nonsense in this thread. You're going to ruin this for everyone.

Also, you can't use 3 year weighted averages for pitches. That is completely illogical and nonsensical.

I have complete confidence in SCEA to determine what is and what is not nonsense.

Yes, I am willing to let SCEA decide what to do based on what they read.

[seanjeezy]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

They are not going to use last year as the basis for pitch repertoire or pitch speed, or pitch control. They are not going to use last year as the basis for all hitting attributes.

OK this is a terrible example but I'll throw it out there anyway. Over the last three years Joel Zumaya has averaged 99mph on his fastball. In-game he has a 98 mph fastball, which is his career average. He obviously didn't play last year due to injury, and reports from his showcase during the winter had him at 92mph. It is highly unlikely he will ever hit 100mph ever again, there is even a chance he is done.

Anyway, if SCEA decided to use a career average, Zumaya would still be averaging 98.5mph in next year's iteration because the f/x data still shows a career fastball speed of 98.5mph. If Zumaya ever decided to attempt another comeback, he'd probably be lucky to hit 90mph.

Say he does come back and tries to reinvent himself as a finesse pitcher (LOL). You're telling me you would be OK with a guy throwing in the low 90's in real life hitting 100mph consistently in-game because of his past repertoire?

All I'm saying is that repertoire should be updated yearly because after all, this is a yearly game. Stamina and the /9 ratings should be a three year average, as well as all hitting stats

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

I have complete confidence in SCEA to determine what is and what is not nonsense.

Yes, I am willing to let SCEA decide what to do based on what they read.

So even though all evidence is against you you're unwilling to admit you a) didn't have a clue how do use pitchfx data, and b) are unwilling to acknowledge what you've posted is wrong.

You've been provided a mountain of evidence contradicting what you've been saying (and supporting what I've been saying all along) not just from other posters in this thread but also links to reputable baseball analysis websites that back up what I and others are saying. You're now at the point at which you're either intentionally trolling this thread or simply so obtuse that you need to be shut down from above lest you pollute this thread further.

Effectively backing off and saying "well, it doesn't matter how much evidence or how many people explain otherwise, let's see how it plays out" is the sign of someone who cannot admit failure.

[ComfortablyLomb]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

They are not going to use last year as the basis for pitch repertoire or pitch speed, or pitch control. They are not going to use last year as the basis for all hitting attributes.

They may give Buchholz a cutter and take away his slider--and he has thrown a slider--if they feel that is a more effective pitch. However, unless they use last year as the basis for all assigned attributes, I don't think it's fair.

By the way, when I said Rivera only has two pitches long ago in this thread, no one gave me a "like the post" thumb. Eh, it's all about favorites...

Also, for those who want to base everything off last year, start posting! There are lots of pitchers in the majors...and that goes for hitters as well.

Given experience with the devs of this game over the past few years they will use what we suggest in this thread. Posts on OS have led to direct change of pitch repertoires in future roster updates. This is not a futile exercise.

---------------

On a practical level, because pitchers can change dramatically from one year to the next it would be best to focus primarily on what pitchers have done most recently. A lefty who goes from the rotation to the pen might morph into a sinker/slider pitcher from a guy who threw a full arsenal of fastball/sinker/curve/slider/change before the switch. That exact thing happened with Rich Hill last year even though he only tossed about 10 innings for the Sox before blowing out his elbow. Using multi-year stats would have him in-game reflect a pitcher he essentially isn't anymore: a full-fledged starter instead of the LOOGY that he's tried to reinvent himself as.

---------------

I don't understand what you mean by suggesting the devs will give Buchholz a slider "if they feel that is a more effective pitch." The velocity and break that he throws even the pitches that pitchfx miscategorizes as sliders have the velocity and break typical of cutters. Buchholz's change into a cutter thrower has been discussed in the media and on the internet. That you're still regurgitating the same mantra that he should have a slider is beyond maddening. You are the worst kind of wrong: the kind that WANTS to be wrong.

[Cavicchi]

Re: MLB 12 The Show Pitch Repertoires Corrections Thread

OK this is a terrible example but I'll throw it out there anyway. Over the last three years Joel Zumaya has averaged 99mph on his fastball. In-game he has a 98 mph fastball, which is his career average. He obviously didn't play last year due to injury, and reports from his showcase during the winter had him at 92mph. It is highly unlikely he will ever hit 100mph ever again, there is even a chance he is done.

Anyway, if SCEA decided to use a career average, Zumaya would still be averaging 98.5mph in next year's iteration because the f/x data still shows a career fastball speed of 98.5mph. If Zumaya ever decided to attempt another comeback, he'd probably be lucky to hit 90mph.

Say he does come back and tries to reinvent himself as a finesse pitcher (LOL). You're telling me you would be OK with a guy throwing in the low 90's in real life hitting 100mph consistently in-game because of his past repertoire?

All I'm saying is that repertoire should be updated yearly because after all, this is a yearly game. Stamina and the /9 ratings should be a three year average, as well as all hitting stats

If you want all the pitchers data to be based on their last year, then you and whoever agrees with you have lots of work to do--and you're all spending much too much time with me. There are many, many pitchers who are not based off last year, which is why I believe they don't do it that way. I have no reason to expect they are going to change 90% or more of this roster to reflect what you want.

If you think they are going to base pitchers data on their last year, why aren't you guys providing more input? I am not just talking pitch type, I am talking velocity as well.

And, aside from what pitch type and speed, control as well. Basically, everything should be based off last year according to you. Buchholz definitely threw a slider in 2010, and he may go back to that pitch. Anyway, There is lots of work for those who want pitch data based off of last year. The speed of Felix Hernandez fastball dropped last year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...772&position=P