Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I think Beltran will get in also. Not on the 1st ballot, but he has a good chance. Was a 5-tool player at one point, played for both NY teams, some postseason magic, good but not great counting numbers for a HoF OF (will come up short of 500 HR and probably 450, but he's already a 400 HR 300 SB guy). Probably will end somewhere around 70 fWAR.

[Sportsforever]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

No chance: Adrian Gonzalez

Very little chance: Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday

Think he's already good enough to get in, but not sure he'll actually get in: Carlos Beltran

Probably going to finish with ~55-60 career WAR, which is where a lot of not-quite-good-enough guys fall: Joey Votto, David Wright, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia

I was surprised you gave Yadi such a small chance...and then I looked at his numbers. Man, for being the best catcher in baseball for a decade he really does have a pretty low WAR total. In my mind he's been Gary Carter, except Carter could hit and that's the difference and why I agree Yadi will struggle to get in.

One guy I can't remember if we've discussed, but what about Adrian Beltre? The HOF is really lacking in the 3B department...he's in some ways a compiler, but he has played GG defense and been a decent hitter for a long time. I could see him eventually getting in...

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Beltre will get in. Especially since he's sticking around for a couple more years at least.

[Sportsforever]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Beltre will get in. Especially since he's sticking around for a couple more years at least.

I went and checked...had no idea he had caught Chipper in the bWAR department (both at 85). I've never thought of him on Chipper's level, but I realize it's because a lot of Beltre's value has come from his glove where in all of Chipper's value came with his bat. To be honest, if I had to choose I'd rather have a player who puts up 85 WAR with his bat at 3rd than a guy who puts up 55-60 WAR with his bat and 25-30 WAR with his glove.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I went and checked...had no idea he had caught Chipper in the bWAR department (both at 85). I've never thought of him on Chipper's level, but I realize it's because a lot of Beltre's value has come from his glove where in all of Chipper's value came with his bat. To be honest, if I had to choose I'd rather have a player who puts up 85 WAR with his bat at 3rd than a guy who puts up 55-60 WAR with his bat and 25-30 WAR with his glove.

Maybe using bWAR is part of the problem? Beltre is around 76 fWAR and Chipper is 85 fWAR.

They will both get in. Chipper could go in on the 1st ballot.

[Sportsforever]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Maybe using bWAR is part of the problem? Beltre is around 76 fWAR and Chipper is 85 fWAR.

They will both get in. Chipper could go in on the 1st ballot.

You know, I'm a BBR guy...really hate fangraphs lay out, but I guess I should use it more.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Assuming Beltre stays healthy and doesn't fall off the cliff offensively, he's going to get 3,000 hits, which makes him a lock for the HOF.

[AC]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Yadi has a shot if you factor in framing runs and early estimates for game calling.

[DamnYanks2]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Beltre should be a lock. He better be. I'm on the fence about Beltran.

Lance Berkman?

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[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

Beltre should be a lock. He better be. I'm on the fence about Beltran.

Lance Berkman?

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No on Berkman. He's a bit of a SABR darling due to his high career OBP (.406) and career wRC+(144), but he needed Bagwell and Biggio to retire before he could be the best player on his own team. And Bagwell, who was a better player than Berkman by whatever stat you care to look at, is having more trouble getting in than he should due to era and stupidity.

Plus, as a corner IF/OF type never known for his defense with only 366 HR, less than 2k hits, and south of 60 fWAR, that's a tough sell. He's a lock for the HoVG.

[DamnYanks2]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I agree, that career obp is eye-popping, and he had some absolute monster seasons, but he falls short ultimately because of his defense in my eyes. There's been too many good hitting outfielders to consider him.

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[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I agree, that career obp is eye-popping, and he had some absolute monster seasons, but he falls short ultimately because of his defense in my eyes. There's been too many good hitting outfielders to consider him.

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I mean, yeah, are we going to lower the bar so much that we start letting guys of Jim Rice's ilk in? Oh wait.....

And Berkman didn't play on the EAST COAST. So...sorry.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

I was surprised you gave Yadi such a small chance...and then I looked at his numbers. Man, for being the best catcher in baseball for a decade he really does have a pretty low WAR total. In my mind he's been Gary Carter, except Carter could hit and that's the difference and why I agree Yadi will struggle to get in.

One guy I can't remember if we've discussed, but what about Adrian Beltre? The HOF is really lacking in the 3B department...he's in some ways a compiler, but he has played GG defense and been a decent hitter for a long time. I could see him eventually getting in...

Yadi has a shot if you factor in framing runs and early estimates for game calling.

Yeah, the defensive metrics don't fully capture everything Molina does behind the plate, but even if you were to give him an extra win for every season in which he played 100 games, he's still in the low 40s WAR, which even by catcher's standards is pretty marginal. And since he's 34, he's not going to be adding much to that.

As a point of comparison, Joe Mauer's right up there with Yadier Molina in being the best catcher of his generation (and has an MVP trophy, to boot), and he's still considered a very borderline HOF candidate, if that. Gary Carter took 6 ballots to get in and only got 78% of the vote.

It's just not very easy for defense-first guys to get into the HOF, so my pessimism with Molina reflects that. But maybe the more sabermetrically-inclined voters of the 2020s/30s will be more sympathetic to Molina than today's voters are, so it's hard to say. I was actually going to make a unique category for Molina instead of throw him in the "little chance" bucket because he's a unique player, but I'll lean on the side of history here.

[DamnYanks2]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

It is egregious Larry Walker is not in the hall. I don't care about the Coors effect, the man did everything well.

I was glancing over his stats, and man, are they impressive.

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[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Hall Of Fame: Yes Or No?

It is egregious Larry Walker is not in the hall. I don't care about the Coors effect, the man did everything well.

I was glancing over his stats, and man, are they impressive.

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Walker is a tough case because he was pretty dominant and held his own against Sosa/McGwire. His triple slash .313/.400/.565, wOBA = .412 and wRC+ = 140 are all good enough.

My problem with Walker is, yes ballpark, but more than that I just don't think his career was quite long enough to put him up there with all timers in the OF. Not counting his cuppa coffee in 1989, he played from 1990 to 2005, but he only topped 140 games played in 4 of those seasons and in 5 of those seasons he didn't even top 400 AB.

Part of the fallout of that is that his counting numbers are not as high as you might expect with 383 HR and only 2160 hits for a guy who had some great batting averages.

His peak is also a bit weird in that he didn't really have one. Sure he had a ridiculous 1997 with 9.1 fWAR, but pretty much lived around 3-5 fWAR for his entire career otherwise. He accumulated 68.7 fWAR, but given his era and ballpark (although WAR accounts for both) and that he's Canadian (lol) I don't ever see him getting enough traction.