2013 Toronto Blue Jays

[Redacted01]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Steals on steals on steals at the top of the lineup today hopefully.

[AC]

Kawasaki is a beauty.

Dunno why Thole ran.

[Redacted01]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Edmark Encarcirosa!

This game shows we need to go back to the old lineup of Reyes, Davis, Bautista, EE, Lind, etc... Maybe when Cabrera comes back, slot him in #2 if he can start hitting over .300.

[SPTO]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Good game for the Jays today and it was nice to see Dickey have 2 solid starts in a row. I'm getting frustrated with Lind though. The man can't seem to go a season without some kind of back issue. Apparently the back pain today is in a different part of his back than the chronic pain of the last few years. I dunno if that's good news or bad....

Encarnacion having hammy issues is not a good thing either, hopefully he gets better sooner than later.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Jays have 46 games remaining against non AL East teams and 34 games remaining against AL East teams.

To reach 90 win mark, I'd see Jays needing to go something like:

30-16 against the non AL East teams
and
19-15 against AL East teams


29 of those 46 non AL East games are against teams BELOW .500! So there are MANY WINNABLE games to be had there.

[Redacted01]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Jays have 46 games remaining against non AL East teams and 34 games remaining against AL East teams.

To reach 90 win mark, I'd see Jays needing to go something like:

30-16 against the non AL East teams
and
19-15 against AL East teams


29 of those 46 non AL East games are against teams BELOW .500! So there are MANY WINNABLE games to be had there.

You also have to consider that records are going to change in the next 80 games. I mean, just look at the Padres. They were a below .500 team... at least when we played them. But they definitely aren't as bad as their record was at the time. The only below .500 team that should be easy wins is Houston, and just ask the Angels how easy that really is.

They aren't going to go .652 against the rest of the league (including games against the Dodgers and D-Backs); that's a 105 win pace. When you have 17 games against the A's, Tigers, Indians, and Angels, it's not going to happen. Also, you can't play near-.500 ball in the East because 3 teams you have to pass are in the division. It is a lot easier winning those games to make up ground than to trust others to do the work for you. So let's look at exactly what we have against who and then consider what can be done and what needs to be done.

Right now, as of today, with 82 games played and at most 80 left (possibly 79 because of Chicago rain out), we are 8 games out of the East, 5.5 out of the 2nd wildcard, and 6.5 out of the 1st wildcard. By winning the games we should, we can make the 2nd wildcard a sub-90 win position. As of now, projections I see have the top wild card as an AL West team with 91-92 wins and the 2nd wildcard as Baltimore at 88.

3 vs. DET
3 vs. MIN, 3 @ MIN
3 @ CLE
3 @ BAL, 3 vs. BAL, 3 @ BAL
3 vs. TB, 3 @ TB, 3 vs. TB
3 vs. LAD
4 vs. HOU, 3 @ HOU
3 @ OAK, 4 vs. OAK
4 @ LAA, 3 vs. LAA
3 @ SEA
3 vs. BOS, 3 @ BOS
4 @ NYY, 3 vs. NYY, 3 vs. NYY
3 vs. KC
3 @ ARI

We'll work our way from the bottom up in terms of records.

Houston is playing a bit better, but if we can keep our pitching solid. We'll say 5-2.
Seattle depends. If we have to play King Felix and Iwakuma, that's 2 potential losses. Also the end of a 20-game stretch and west coast trip. So to be conservative, 1-2.
We get Minnesota this weekend so we already know our starters. Given Buehrle's decent history, we're going for 4-2 overall.
The Angels are dangerous and with 4 on the road, I'm going to say 4-3, at best. The Angels haven't quite turned it around like last year, but having to face Trout, Trumbo, Hamilton, and a possibly improving Pujols? Don't bet on more than 4.
While on LA... with the Dodgers pitching falling apart and getting them at home hopefully fresh after the all-star break, I'll put it down as 2-1.
For KC, 3 at home is a likely 2 wins, but that offense is starting to get pretty good with their 1-5 batters. Royals have also been playing a lot better like us so below .500 doesn't mean as much. This down the road, but I'm going 1-2 just to give us some leeway.
Detroit, 1-2. No way around it. Facing Fister, Scherzer, and Verlander, even one could be rough.
Oakland, 3-4. Part of this is the 11-13th games of a 20 game stretch and the first series in a 10-game west coast trip.
For the 3 @ Arizona, we'll need 2-1.
We've already dropped 2 of 3 to Cleveland, and the way they are playing, and on the road, that's 1-2, hopefully. I was considering going but since they never win when I do, it is for the best.

I see 24-21 (17-12 against below .500), with the potential for a few extra wins in there. This does not account for the White Sox makeup game. It may not even be played, so you can't count on it. Asking for 30 wins here is just too much. It is doable, as we showed by winning 11 in a row, but you can't expect it.

The East is where we will have to do the work.

Tampa, I see 5-4, but really, they need to go for 6-3. They'll drop 2 in Tampa with their history, and then they'll have to win 5 of 6 at home. That is a guaranteed 3 games made up on the Rays. We outplay them elsewhere, we pass them.

NYY, they have some work to do. They are 1-8 right now which is just ridiculous. They have to go 6-4. That makes up the 2 games. Really, they need to do better than that, but I can't expect it. Not with New York's staff and what they've done to us so far.

Baltimore's horrendous pitching tells me I think we can go 6-3, and we need to. We have 5+ games to make up on them. Might as well get 3 of them all on our own and let Boston bring them back down to us the rest of the way.

Winning the division keeps looking less likely. Boston had their bad week or so, but losing 3 of 4 to them damaged the chances we had of cutting deep into their lead. We only have 6 games, so let's split them. 3-3. Having Lawrie, Cabrera, and maybe a healthy Morrow could help later in the year against them, but don't over predict.

20-14 in the East, and if they put the Yankees in their place like they should have 2 or 3 times already, we might pick up another. An extra win is possible with Boston depending on circumstances later in the year.

41-41
24-21
21-13

Comes to 86-75. There is room for extra wins in what I put, but we have to be conservative. Even 5 wins against Houston isn't a guarantee so you'd have to pick up those games elsewhere. If the Chicago game is made up, that is hopefully an extra win. But I can't see us getting more than 88 or 89 after that start. There are a few extra wins against teams like KC, OAK, and SEA, but they could be needed to account for lost wins against TEX, TB, and BAL. They started an Astros-esque run like I said we needed, but it kind of stalled this past week. However, let's look again at what the 2005 Astros did.

They were 39-42 at halfway (we were 40-41), 44-43 at the all-star break (all-star break is a week later this year, but we could be 44-43 after this week), but had improved all the way to 57-48 by the end of July. Hell, they went 13-14 in August and still managed to win 89 games. With 80 games left, they went 49-31. That's only a few games better than I have us. And 89 could be plenty for the wildcard if we win the games we are supposed to. You let Baltimore keep running away, well, you don't catch them first of all, and second of all, you let the wildcard get to 90+.

[SPTO]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

JP Morosi was in studio on Baseball Central and he says that if the Jays want to have a championship calibre lineup then either Rasmus or Arencibia have to go. If I had my druthers i'd throw Arencibia away. I can handle Rasmus being boom or bust because at least generally he plays his position well but JP isn't the greatest defensive catcher and is a horrible game game caller.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

JP Morosi was in studio on Baseball Central and he says that if the Jays want to have a championship calibre lineup then either Rasmus or Arencibia have to go. If I had my druthers i'd throw Arencibia away. I can handle Rasmus being boom or bust because at least generally he plays his position well but JP isn't the greatest defensive catcher and is a horrible game game caller.

Ya, while Rasmus and his batting average suck, JP is responsible for more than just batting, game calling is huge part of the game too, and for all we know, he might be a reason some pitchers are struggling. They've been showing stats of our pitchers in terms of pitch usage % and many guys seem to be fairly diff this year than in previous years in their career.

Dickey has been great in 3 of his past 4 starts......Coincidence? His ERA has been UNDER 3 in those 4 games combined. Thole was catcher for all those games. I know Blanco was the guy catching Dickey before, but shows just how diff pitchers are with a diff catcher.

But we obviously can't have Thole as starting C since he sucks at the plate. We need to get a guy who is great at calling games and also good batter.

In the meantime, Jays BETTER reorder their batting lineup. Rasmus and JP must hit at diff parts of the order, it gets annoying seeing one(or both) of them striking out with guys on!

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

JP Morosi was in studio on Baseball Central and he says that if the Jays want to have a championship calibre lineup then either Rasmus or Arencibia have to go. If I had my druthers i'd throw Arencibia away. I can handle Rasmus being boom or bust because at least generally he plays his position well but JP isn't the greatest defensive catcher and is a horrible game game caller.

Screw it, I'd move both and put Gose in if it got us an upgrade at C. Rasmus + JPA + solid prospect for some C.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Jays make some IFA signings:

SS-Yeltsin Gudino
OF-Freddy Rodriguez
SS-Jesus Ramirez
SS-Miguel Almonte

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/ten-international-prospects-to-watch-for-july-2/

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/4/24/4259466/2013-international-free-agents

Rodriguez seems to be a good contact hitter and basically average at everything else. Haven't heard anything about Ramirez and Almonte though.

Gudino seems to be one of top IFA out there. So great that Jays got him. Either way, on these IFA signings, won't see any of them getting shot at MLB roster for many years.

Screw it, I'd move both and put Gose in if it got us an upgrade at C. Rasmus + JPA + solid prospect for some C.

https://twitter.com/SportsnetJamie/status/352167198569148419

Jamie Campbell <s>@</s>SportsnetJamie Lawrie is moving up to New Hampshire. AA impressed with outfielder Kevin Pillar. Appears ready for big leagues if needed.






Wonder if Pillar could be replacement OF if Rasmus goes?

And to get a C, I'd do something like:
Rasmus + JP + Lefty Reliever + Minor League player

I wonder how valuable(if any) a lefty reliever would be? Cause some teams have 1(if lucky 2) lefty relievers in their entire bullpen(who may or may not be good), Jays have 4 good ones and another good one on the DL.

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

WE GOT GUDINO? YAYAYAYAYAYAYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY

This kid is perfect for us. Doesn't have any plus plus tools, but everything is 50-60 and he's gonna stick at short. He's a really, really nice prospect.

[Majingir]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

50-60/100?

Don't know much about or how IFA works, so is that good?

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

50-60/100?

Don't know much about or how IFA works, so is that good?

50/60 on the 20-80 scale.

He's very good.

[AC]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Chien-Ming Wang DFA'd

[Redacted01]

Re: 2013 Toronto Blue Jays

Chien-Ming Wang DFA'd

Like I said in the discussion thread, that experiment ran its course. If Morrow is ready, slot him in.